[Foreign language] and good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I am Sanjay Kapoor, General Manager, Performance Planning and Review Department of the bank. On the occasion of the declaration of the bank's quarter three for FY 2024 results of the bank, I am delighted to welcome the analysts, the investors, and the colleagues for this in-person meeting. I also extend a warm welcome to the analysts, investors, and colleagues who have joined this presentation through our live webcast. We have with us on the stage our chairman, Shri Dinesh Khara, at the center. Our Managing Director, International Banking, Global Markets and Technology, Shri C. S. Setty. Our Managing Director, Corporate Banking and Subsidiaries, Shri Ashwini Kumar Tewari. Our Managing Director, Risk, Compliance and Stressed Assets Resolution Group, Shri Alok Kumar Choudhary. Our Managing Director, Retail Business and Operations, Shri Vinay M. Tonse.
Our Deputy Managing Director, Finance, Srimati Saloni Narayan . Our deputy managing directors, heading various verticals and managing directors of our subsidiaries are seated in the front, row of this hall. We are also joined by chief general managers of different verticals and business groups. So to carry forward the proceedings, I'll request Chairman Sir, to give a brief summary of the bank's, quarter three FY 2024 performance and the strategic initiatives undertaken. We shall thereafter straightaway go to the question and answer session. However, before I hand over to the chairman, sir, I would like to read out the safe harbor statement. Certain statements in these slides are forward-looking statements.
These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual outcomes may differ materially from those included in these statements due to a variety of factors. Thank you. Now, I would request Chairman Sir to make his opening remarks. Chairman, Sir, please.
Thank you. Good evening, dear friends, and thank you for joining this analyst meet today. I would like to start by thanking the support of all our stakeholders, including our customers, shareholders, employees, and the broader ecosystem. Without their support, we would not have been in position to achieve what we could. Fairness to all our stakeholders remains at the crux of the bank's culture, which in turn has helped us in creating sustainable value. Let me start with a brief description of the present global and domestic economic scenario. Global economy is projected to grow at the rate of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, owing to greater than expected resilience in the U.S. and several other emerging economies.
While the global economy is showing resilience, the projected growth is still below the historical average of 3.8% for the 20 years starting from 2000. While the likelihood of a hard landing has receded, still there are certain risks that need to be monitored. New commodity price spikes from the geopolitical shocks, supply disruptions, and persistent underlying inflation could prolong the tight monetary conditions. Against this backdrop, the outlook for the domestic activity is brightening on account of the sustained buoyancy in the services, consumer, and wages optimism, public spending on infrastructure, and the underlying strength of the financial sector's balance sheet. Consumer confidence has improved with uptick in most of the macroeconomic conditions.
The Union government at a historically unprecedented rate, and it has taken the overall public sector capital investment from almost about INR 6 trillion in 2015 to INR 18 trillion in 2025, as per the budget estimates, which is a jump of almost three times. Gross tax to GDP in financial year 25 is projected to touch 11%+, the highest ever in 16 years. GST monthly threshold has moved up to INR 1.64 trillion, and even in the previous month of January, we have seen a level of INR 1.67 trillion. CPI inflation is expected to moderate in coming months. On external front, the current account deficit is modest, with foreign exchange reserves providing a strong buffer.
IMF has recently updated India's GDP outlook growth for the year 2024 to 6.7% from 6.3% earlier, underpinning the growth potential of the Indian economy. While recognizing the global risks and the volatility in financial markets, the annual real GDP growth is expected to be 7.3% in financial year 2024. Interim Budget has estimated the nominal GDP growth of 10.5% for the year 2025. On the banking front, the deposit growth has rebounded, but sustained credit growth momentum has increased the wedge between deposit and the credit growth. As on 12th of January, All Scheduled Commercial Banks credit grew by almost about 20% as compared to 16% last year, and the deposit grew by 13% as compared to almost 11% last year.
Latest credit growth numbers reveal a sustained pickup across agriculture, MSME, and services. Coming to the bank's performance, once again, we have delivered stellar numbers. Our net profit in nine months of the financial year 2024 stood at INR 40,378 crore, which has witnessed an increase of 20%+ over nine months of financial year 2023. This is despite providing for a wage revision of INR 12,718 crore during the current financial year, as per the bipartite wage settlement at the rate of 17% wage hike. Further, I'm happy to share that our net profit for the quarter three of financial year 2024 stands at INR 9,164 crore, after absorbing the additional liability to the tune of INR 7,100 crore in a single quarter as a one-time exception item. This comprising of two sub-items.
Firstly, INR 5,400 crore, which is on account of an increase in pension and addressing the anomaly which used to be there between the employees who retired many years back. Some of the employees were getting pension at the rate of 40%, while others were drawing pension at the rate of 50%. This matter was sub judice for a fairly long time, and it is almost likely to get resolved soon. And with that in mind, we had a very clear visibility in terms of the likely liability, and we have decided to provide for the same in the current quarter. Secondly, we have also provided for INR 1,700 crore towards the Dearness Relief Neutralization for the pre-2002 retirees and family pensioners.
Our ability to absorb the above liabilities without significantly impacting the long-term profitability outcomes of the bank demonstrates the strength of our balance sheet and also is a reflection of our philosophy that we must ensure that the balance sheet stays strong under all conditions. ROA of the bank at 0.94% for nine months of financial year 2024 has improved by seven basis points over nine months of financial year 2023. The ROE for nine months of financial year 2024 stands at 19.47%, which has improved by eighty-eight basis points over nine months of financial year 2023. We have been consistently delivering ROE in excess of 15% for last six quarters. Our aspiration from our current position of strength is to sustainably deliver a ROE more than 15% through various business cycles.
The cost-to-income ratio of the bank stands at 57.35%, including wage revision provision and excluding the impact of one-time exceptional item of pension liabilities and Dearness Relief Neutralization. Overheads have been under control and have been shown a decline of 3.10% sequentially. The underlying driver for the sustainable step, step-up in the profitability profile of the bank have been the unmatchable liability franchise, with INR 48 crore+ customers, comprising nearly 34% of the Indian population. Our customer-centric approach, the process-oriented culture of the bank, strengthened underwriting processes, and correct pricing of the risk, have also contributed to the sustainable profitability. We are mindful of our liability portfolio as it provides a stable stream of resources for us. We continuously monitor the concentration for our deposit profile daily, ensuring that the dependency on the wholesale funding is contained within the prescribed level.
The differential rate of deposits and the CDs are just around 13% of our total deposits. We retain reasonable reserve resource in the form of liquid assets over and above the CRR and the SLR requirement to meet the future contingent demand and broad-basing the deposit mix. Unencumbered excess SLR stands at about INR 4 trillion as on thirty-first of December 2023. Liquidity coverage ratio at about 131% as on 31st of December 2023 is well above the regulatory benchmark. I'm happy to highlight that the credit growth has been robust across all the segments. Our retail personal loan book is more than INR 13 trillion, is growing at 15%+ y-o-y, with an industry-leading asset quality. The growth in agri, SME, and corporate segment has witnessed a healthy growth of 18%+, 19%+, and almost 11% respectively.
I'm glad to share the progress we are making in digital banking. 59% of the savings bank accounts were opened through YONO in nine months of financial year 2024. We are also leveraging analytics with significant business of INR 95,000 crore being sourced through analytical leads, showing growth of 37% y-o-y. With regard to asset quality, our gross NPA ratio has improved by 72 basis points y-o-y and stands at 2.42% as at December 2023, and continues to be at the lowest level in more than 10 years. Our net NPA ratio has also improved by 13 basis points and stands at 0.64%. Slippage ratio for nine months of financial year 2024 has improved by 5 basis points y-o-y and stands at 0.67%. The consistently improving asset quality is also reflected in our credit cost.
For nine months of financial 2024, it stands at 0.25% and has improved by 12 basis points on a y-o-y basis. We are well provided for our loan book, with PCR, including AUCA, standing at 91.49%, and PCR for quarter three, financial 2024, standing at 74.17%. While we are glad about the outcome in the current quarter, we are also conscious of the areas for further improvement. On the liability side, we continue to focus on increasing our share in current account while maintaining our leadership position in savings deposit. Our CET ratio, our CET1 ratio, after considering ploughback of nine-month profit, is at 10.38%. Additionally, the current ROE profile of the bank is above the credit growth trend, which will lead to CET1 incremental accretion.
However, the bank is open to raising equity capital if the growth trends are higher than expectation. Our subsidiaries are also consistently performing well and continue to create significant value for all the stakeholders and, most importantly, for the customers. Concluding my opening remarks, I want to thank you all for your support to the bank. The bank, while pursuing its own progress, contributes to the progress and economic growth of the broader ecosystem. We remain committed to reward your trust in us with superior, sustainable returns over the long term. My team and I are now open to taking your questions. Thank you very much.
Thank you, sir, for your opening address.
Hello.
Sir. Thank you, sir. We'll now invite questions from the audience. For the benefit of all, we'll request you to kindly mention your name and company before posing the questions. To accommodate all questions, we request you to restrict questions to maximum two at a time. Also, kindly restrict your questions to the financial results only and no questions be asked about specific accounts, please. In case you've additional questions, the same can be asked at the end. We'll now proceed with the question and answer session.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
This is Ashok Ajmera, Chairman, Ajcon Global. Sir, compliments to you for the fantastic results. But for that exceptional item, even the net profit would have been higher, more than INR 20,000 crore. I mean, the operating profit also has gone up, and net profit also would have been much, much higher. So my question is on that only, number one, that this 15%-17%, I mean, the expected rate hike was wage hike was 15%, now it has gone to 17%. So in our employee cost, in the normal P&L, there is hardly any impact if you see the numbers of the last quarter and this quarter, and which it seems that you have taken an exceptional item. Whereas in case of all other banks so far, they were taken in the regular P&L, the direct hit of the increase.
This is number one. And secondly, what was the need for a provision in this quarter itself of such a big amount? Was it because the results were good, the profitability was good? Or is it because in the next quarter you are feeling that may not be so robust or so good? And third, is that you wanted to make the remain the bank's balance sheet very healthy. This is my first this thing, sir.
Well, I think, when it comes to the way we look at this expense, particularly, as far as the provision for the wage increase is concerned, we were providing at the rate of 10% from November 2022 onwards. Later on, we increased it to 14%, and when the MOU got entered into, as of now, it has not crystallized into a liability. That will crystallize into a liability at a later date. So that is the reason why we thought much in order to create a provision, because only and only when it gets crystallized into liability, it should be taken as an expense. That is something which we have done. I must mention that up to September 2023, we had made a provision of INR 8,895 crore.
And we have made additional provision for the wage increase in this quarter to that tune of about INR 6,313 crore. So in all, we have now made provision, which is as high as 8,895, and provision made for during this financial year is INR 12,718 crore. And the additional provision which is required to be made in this financial year would be another INR 5,400 crore. Your second question, why we have made provision in this quarter-
Before that 7,100 need to-
7,100 is actually a provision which is essentially, we have made because, as I mentioned in my opening remarks also, there was an anomaly in the pension being paid to the different set of employees in the bank. Some set of employees were being paid pension at the rate of 14%, the other were being paid 40%, the other were being paid pension at the rate of 50%. This matter was pending before the court of law since 2002. Now, of course, there is a definite progress, though we still don't have the liability.
But nevertheless, since we saw this, it's an event which is almost certain to happen, our actuary suggested that we should make a provision of another INR 5,540 crore for meeting this liability in future. And also, the other piece was relating to the difference in the Dearness Relief. For the pensioners who retired before 2002, November of 2002, that liability was ascertained at INR 1,700 crore, and the actuarial assessment suggested that we should provide for this. So, the decision to account for these liabilities have actually happened because there was a crystallization of the liability. It has nothing to do in terms of whether this quarter is strong or the next quarter is weak.
I'm not supposed to make any kind of a projections about the next quarter, but, the general expectation is that last quarter is always strong quarter, and also the kind of growth trajectory which you have seen, I have no reason to believe otherwise. So I think, that should actually answer your, all your questions.
Just a connected question, ma'am. We will get the tax benefit on this provision or,
You will.
for the year-end? We will. It will be treated as a full expenses?
Yeah.
Yes, yes, of course.
We'll get the tax benefit.
Sir, my second one is on the capital adequacy, sir. I mean, we are growing very fast, and we have to. I mean, we need to grow, in spite of even the size, such a large size, still we are growing in percentage terms also 13, 14%, 15%. So on capital adequacy, though, I mean, you have excess SLR, you said, four trillion, but don't you feel that some, some major decision is required to be taken to bring it, the capital adequacy on par with some of the other banks?
I would not use the word peer bank, because they are too small as compared to you. But still, a capital adequacy of about 15.5%, 16%, don't you think that some drastic decision or bold decision is required to be taken when the share price is also reasonably good now?
See, if at all we reckon the profit which you have booked till now, and if we reckon it to be plowed back into the system, our capital adequacy ratio would have been 14.34%, and our CET1 would have been 10.38%. So this is something which I think we need to reckon. The other piece is that our ROE is growing at about 19%-20%, and also our loan book is growing at about 14%-15%. So long as our ROE is growing faster than the loan book, the incremental ROE will actually give us the ability to plowback the profit, and which will ensure that we stay healthy as far as the capital adequacy is concerned. But nevertheless, we are quite open.
We are reviewing the situation on an ongoing basis, and we are hopeful that there would be some resolution relating to the AT-1 pricing and the valuation issue also. So even that will also open up the opportunities in terms of raising money through AT-1 option. So we are quite open for all options, and we will, as I have mentioned in the past, we are well equipped to deal with the opportunity for growth in the loan book, and we will ensure that the capital should not come in the way for the growth of this bank. And even now also, if at all we reckon this kind of plowback, we can easily build up our loan book by another INR 7.5 trillion. So I think we are very well placed.
I have no reason to doubt, but as I mentioned, that we are quite open, if at all need be, we will not hesitate in terms of raising capital. We have identified enough resources through which we can raise the capital. It is not more than a one-quarter effort to raise that kind of a capital. And, there's no reason for my investors also to really worry, because when we are prudent in terms of identifying the source of capital and also, the cost of capital, I think that should be a happy situation for all our investors.
Thank you, sir. I got the signal. Thank you very much, and all the best, sir.
Okay, thank you.
We'll move to the next question, please.
Hello, this is Manish Ostwal from Nirmal Securities. So my question on the kind of credit cost we are seeing in the bank, if I look at the nine-month performance of the bank, and when I compare to the large private banks, our performance even better. So obviously, the economy is doing well, so that is the one factor. But can you talk about some of the structural factors in the bank's underwriting practices which sustaining this kind of credit cost? I've never seen this kind of credit cost in SBI in almost 15, 20 years. So can you comment on that?
Thanks for the compliment. What you mentioned in terms of economy doing well, and that is the reason for the credit cost being low, if that being so, then the industry should also have a similar kind of a situation. Nevertheless, I would like to highlight that we have worked on it for quite some time in terms of we have strengthened the mechanism for underwriting the risk, for having adequate appreciation of the risk, and for ensuring that there is adequate risk premium for the risk which we are undertaking. That is something which has helped us in terms of ensuring that the credit cost should remain contained. Apart from that, when it comes to the portfolio selection also, we are very clear in our mind that what should be our portfolio composition.
And we have leveraged the whatever is available in the ecosystem, structured, unstructured. And also, when it comes to retail book, we have created our loan management system, which does not leave any discretion, and there, the decision engines are all embedded into the loan management system. So, you know, when it comes to retail, when you have got such a large network, you have to control the quality, and that is something which you have addressed through the loan management systems.
And when it comes to the corporate credit, our credit review department, which is there, the credit committees and the composition of the credit committees, are the one which helps us in achieving what we have achieved. I think going forward, we are quite cognizant of the likely emergence of the risk, and we are ensuring we should be ahead of the curve, and we should be in a position to manage those risks very well.
Within that, there's a retail portfolio where the even your portfolio, even, like home loan, car loan, and the personal credit loans, where the gross NPA level even significantly lower than the top-notch lenders in the private space. So can you talk about that also?
We are actually the top-notch. We are the best.
No, no. I mean, I'm talking private sector, sir.
No. So see, the point is, you should be. One thing which you should, I expect you to be, it should be agnostic to the ownership, whether private or, or public sector.
Sure.
So it is more of a professionalism. I think professionalism is not the exclusive domain of a private sector. I think it is, it is there, it is uniform, and anybody can be professional. And I actually rate ourselves as more professional than any private sector.
Appreciate, sir. And the second question on your slide number 20, there's a statement which mentions that we expect our ROEs higher than the loan growth. And you said in your remarks that if the credit growth even higher than your expectation, then we may tap the market. So what rate of credit growth where you see the need of capital to raise? And secondly, in your macro commentary, you said, sir, that 11% kind of nominal GDP for the FY 2025. So based on that, what kind of loan growth we are looking at?
Normally, when it comes to as compared to the nominal growth we have seen in the past, that the credit growth for a bank like us is generally 3%-4% more than the nominal growth, and more than that is normally not there. And considering the fact that we are very selective in terms of the risk, as I mentioned, that risk is something which is, we are very cognizant of. So I would say that we should be, ideally speaking, we should be growing around 14%-15% kind of a growth. And also, I would like to mention that this ROE is actually a bit depressed because of the kind of...
As I mentioned, that we have, in this quarter itself, if you really look at it, I mean, till now, we have made an additional provision of almost about INR 20,000 crore. We have got a profit of INR 40,000 crore for the nine months, and INR 12,000 crore provision we have made in this financial year for the wage hike. Another about INR 7,100 crore is on account of the one-off, the pension and the pension liabilities. Almost about INR 20,000 crore we have provided for.
The impact on the wage increase in the next financial year is almost about INR 500 crore per month, which is about INR 6,000 crore overall. INR 14,000 crore rupees is an additional provision which we are absorbing in this financial year. With that, our ROE is at about 19.5. My expectation is that we should be treading at more than 20% of ROE. And if at all we are treading at more than 20% of ROE and our loan growth is at 15%, incrementally, we are creating additional elbow room for the loan book to grow.
As I was mentioning, that we have got enough elbow room to grow at about, about INR 7.5 trillion loan book can be grown. Our loan book is at about INR 35 trillion-INR 36 trillion, so INR 7.5 trillion is almost about 18%-20% kind of a growth. I think 18%-20% growth is, is, is some distance. Not that we don't have liquidity. We have got enough liquidity. Our liquidity coverage ratio is at 131%. And also, when it comes to our credit deposit ratio, today, we are at six. As on 31st of December, we are at 66%. I think liquidity-wise, no challenge. Ability to support growth in terms of capital, I don't see any challenge. I only need your good wishes and your support so that we should continue to grow.
All the best, sir.
Thank you.
We move to the next question here. This side. This side, please. No, sorry.
Hi, good evening.
Yeah, please go ahead.
So my first question is just on wages, that you have mentioned that, you know, you had aligned for DA to pre-2002, of pre-2002 employees, and then, you know, the 40% and 50% alignment for wages. So how-
Not wages, it is for pension.
Sorry, for pension.
Yeah.
So how long was this for? As in that, how long did the case go on? Because we don't recollect.
See, the point is that, this case was going on from the year 2002.
Okay.
As far as the pensions are concerned. As far as the DA neutralization is concerned, it was at an industry level, and this was a decision which happened at the behest of intervention through IBA. So this is something which we have identified the likely liability, and we have provided for it.
Got it. But the IBA would have told the entire industry?
Yeah, please.
The second part, you know, there are two parts, INR 5,400 crore and INR 1,700 crore.
Yeah, INR 1,700 crore.
INR 1700 crore is for the industry.
INR5,400 crore is only for SBI.
It's only for specific to SBI.
Right. Right. So INR 1,700 crore, like, likely impact for the industry as well, depending on their size.
Yes, yes.
Correct. INR 5,400 crore is specific to SBI, and both of them are one-time. Actuarial assessment, which we have made, and
We have only contributed to the provident fund or-
Corpus.
Pension fund corpus.
Pension fund.
That's all.
Yeah. It's not a recurring expenditure.
Is there any other pending hike left from the past in terms of pensions?
Fortunately, nothing.
No, nothing.
But as you never know, it can come up any day. As of now, there's nothing.
Okay. In Q4, sir, then what is the pending provision of INR 55 billion that you've mentioned or INR 54 billion?
INR 5,400 crore.
INR 5,409 crore.
Yeah, five. Yeah, INR 5,400 crore. That would include some impact on pensions, or this is just for-
This is only salary.
Only salary.
Yeah.
Sir, that is salary plus the regular pension.
Salary plus, that is, I mean, regular expenses . All staff expenses, because even now also-
Everything is covered in that.
Even now also, when we are providing for, we are providing for everything on an ongoing basis. It's a recurring kind of a thing, but it will stop. INR 5,400 crore, once we will provide, the 17% aspect is taken care of.
So then over and above that, whatever pensions will be provided for, that will just be interest rate related. Is that the case or there'll be-
That will be from the quarter to quarter, whatever is the gap, if at all there is any.
It will not be because of the new wage increase?
No, no, nothing, nothing, nothing.
Okay. It will just be the rate catch-up.
As I mentioned, you know, in my passing reference, that the wage increase impact of all this, whatever wage increase is envisaged is INR 500 crore per month, and for the year as a whole, it is going to be about INR 6,000 crore only.
Okay. So for the next quarter, then, the wage provision, like, your wage line is INR 98 billion this quarter, right?
Sorry?
Your wage. You have employee expenses, and then you have contribution to employees. The employee expenses are around INR 98 billion for the quarter, INR 9,800 crore. So next quarter, what will it be?
It would be about, no. Sorry. Maybe if you can clarify, I'm not in a position to comprehend this question.
Basically, we have provided for INR 6,312 crore this quarter. For the next quarter, what remains is INR 5,408 crore, out of which salary is INR 1,386 crore, and pension at the rate of 17% is INR 3,072 crore. Gratuity is INR 378 crore. Other employee benefits is INR 572 crore, and total it is, comes to INR 5,408 crore. Is it clear?
Okay.
Another point that I would like to make, that we have done all the provision for the wage settlement that has happened. So next year around, when you see the impact of this, the overall wage bill will be around INR 66 ,000 crore, as against INR 77 ,000 crore this year, because of all the provisions that we have already taken.
It's only wage bill.
It is actually going to go down.
It's only wage bill, but the. But the pension-related liabilities is actually over and above.
No, sir, it is all put together.
Okay, fine. Yeah. No, no, INR 77,000 crore.
77 is all put in. 7,100 is excluded.
Okay. That is what I'm saying.
That is excluded.
INR 77,000 crore + INR 7,100 crore is something which we have provided this year. So as against INR 84,000 crore, it is going to be only INR 66,000 crore.
Got it, sir. That's very clear. My last question is on margins. Can we say that now, margins will be maintained at these levels or-
Around the same level. We expect maybe at the most, if at all there's any dip, it would be only 2-3 basis points only.
Maximum.
Okay. Most of the deposit repricing of the past is over now?
Yeah, yeah. Almost.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much-
Thank you.
And all the best. Thank you.
Thank you. Yeah, please.
Sushil Choksey, Indus Equity. Congratulations for very stable result and all the guidance and the time and talent which SBI provides to the country. So my first question is based on the interim budget and the FOMC outlook and the behavior of money market. If there's a proxy to India where money market is concerned, SBI should be the largest gainer. So based on INR 4 trillion of excess SLR, how is your outlook on treasury? Second thing, will the interest rates peak out, as newspapers are indicating, and RBI may cut to by 50 basis points in the second half? The FOMC may be cut in the last quarter. It's all speculation, but what is our internal outlook based on all the parameters which have happened in last one week?
See, when it comes to RBI and FOMC, I would say that they have decoupled to a greater extent. RBI decisions are more based upon their own assessment, MPC's assessment, as far as the inflation trajectory is concerned. And, as we read MPC deliberations, we would say that, perhaps they are looking at inflation to come within 4% range. We are hopeful what you mentioned in terms of second quarter. Our assessment is second or third quarter, we should actually get to see some kind of a rate reduction. This is what our expectation is.
When it comes to the money market and the trajectory and its likely impact on the State Bank of India's balance sheet, I would put it like this, that much of it depends upon how the interest rate or the T-bill and the G-Sec would be behaving as of, as on 31st of March. That will be probably helping us in terms of the eventual outcome. Though going by the current trend, we, we are optimistic, but let's wait and watch.
Sir, as urbanization and consumption in India is growing, and the economy is headed to INR 5 trillion, INR 7 trillion, INR 10 trillion, based on numbers, being the largest bank in India, I'm sure our consumer print, consumer-led banking, and corporate banking both needs your support with the market share, what we have. If you have to gear up for those kind of economy size and challenges for the consumer credit, what enablers you will have to do it now, along with YONO and so many other things, and what kind of digital spend you'll have to do for over the next three-four years to sustain those numbers?
Well, we have already invested in terms of the structures. When it comes to the credit processing cells for the real estate, our credit processing cells, last year, we added almost about 150, so now we are somewhere around 400-odd credit processing cells we have created across the country. We have enough feet on street for sourcing of applications, and also, we have created, a seamless process when it comes to the low-value, SME loans, and also, for the home loans also, we are working on a workflow mechanism so that the journey should become end-to-end digital.
So I think it's a, it's a constant and an ongoing process, which is there, and, our effort is that we should stay ahead of the curve in terms of investing and ensuring that we deliver value to our customers, and we should be expedient in terms of delivery.
Sir, at the rate what you're growing around 14%, as you indicated, based on nominal GDP, in three and a half years we would be nearing INR 5,000,000 crore. So our cost to income, with all the enablers which you have already placed in, will it not substantially be low?
Cost to income, we are hoping. Actually, if you look at our productivity, also employee productivity, if you can pull out that slide, please?
Yeah.
Employee productivity. So if at all you will look at that, our productivity is significantly higher, about INR 29.78 crore, which has gone up from about INR 18.77 crore in the year 2019. Same year. So there, that number, it has moved to INR 29.78 crore, so actually it has, it has jumped up quite a lot. We are actually leveraging multiple things here. We are leveraging analytics.
We are also cognizant of the need, if at all, we are exploring the possible application for GenAI, and also we are looking at how we can leverage technology for the advantage of our employees. So I think, it's a multipronged approach which we have in terms of addressing the requirements, and also to ensure that we should be ahead of the curve, much ahead of the curve, as far as the opportunities when they arise, we should be in a position to respond or, maybe we should be in a position to create opportunities also.
Had you not provided the one-time provision this year, I think the year-end would have been the largest profit-making company of India.
You are right, because by that reckoning, we were already at INR 60,000 crore plus as of now. So going by the normal expectation, I think, my dream is that this bank should generate INR 1 trillion profit. And hopefully, that is... What I'm seeing is that is the reality. That is, that would have happened if at all we would not have been required to make such provisions.
Thank you, sir. Thank you for answering my question.
Next question, yeah, please, here.
Hi, sir. Saurabh from JP Morgan. Sir, two questions, one on your corporate banking piece. We have seen the private banks, you know, getting strained on LDR and all. Are you seeing opportunity either to buy portfolios from them or, you know, accelerate growth in that space? That's the first one. And secondly, your presentation mentions a 50 basis points capital release because of the investment fee evaluation in April 2024. Can you just comment on that? Thank you.
Well, as far as the private banks opportunity is concerned, I would rather say that we already have got a pipeline which is almost about INR 4.6 trillion. So that is one opportunity. But yes, of course, if at all opportunities come our way, and it is in line with our risk appetite, we'll be more than happy to support such kind of requirements of the corporates. Now, the other piece, which you have mentioned in terms of the impact of, to the extent about 50 basis point on the capital adequacy, maybe I'll request C.S. Shetty to come in.
Yeah. I think it's, when you look at, the revised valuation norms, which are likely to come from first April, next year, our broad assessment is that if you have the same portfolio levels and move and implement the norms, there is a positive uptick in terms of the, some of the portfolios what move to FVTPL from the AFS category. I think that is what adding to the, positive MTM in that. While we may not immediately be able to, add to the profit, the norms indicate that FVTPL positivity. Today, you know, any positive MTM cannot be booked.
There's only negative MTM which need to be booked. But the new norms allow us to move to AFS reserve, and AFS reserve is part of the CET1. So probably to start with, we'll have to wait for the detailed RBA guidelines, how do they want us to. If I'm opening the balance AFS reserves in a positive way, whether I can book that or I need to book in the general reserve, is something that we are negotiating. But it will definitely add around 50 basis points to CET1. That is our assessment.
So, sir, on the 1st of April, we have to actually draw up a balance sheet.
Balance sheet.
So there, that will come.
Yeah. It's only a matter of accounting, but it will add to the CET1, 50 basis points. Is it clear or...?
Sir, sorry, earlier question, my question was essentially, are private banks talking to you to sell their wholesale books?
No, no, no, no. As of now, we have not received any such request. But if at all it comes, I'll be more than happy to lap it up if it meets my risk appetite.
Thank you.
Yeah, next question. Yeah.
Yeah, hi. Kunal Shah from Citigroup. So firstly, maybe just to get on to that number of INR 77,000 crore. So you highlighted that will be the staff cost for this fiscal, FY 2024. So today we are at almost INR 55,000 crore, so that indicates another INR 22,000 crore for Q4. That would be more to do with this INR 5,000 crore, which is required. Because any which way, this quarter, there was additional wage revision catch-up, which was there. But, we are expecting further rise in the employee cost bill for Q4 as well.
That is only an additional provision which is required to be made in the, in the fourth quarter is only INR 5,400 crore.
Yeah, that's what-
For the wage increase. Maybe for the wage increase.
Okay. Because it was coming to 55, nine- months and 77, so that's where maybe 22 seems to be the catch-up for 4Q in terms of the wage bill. Which is, which is still higher than Q3, considering that there was already a catch-up from 14 to 17 odd %.
No, it is. Actually, the requirement is only INR 5,400 crore additional. Apart from that, the normal wage bill, which is there, that is the only requirement.
Assuming that the bipartite settlement is not implemented in the Q4, which is unlikely. I think will come, probably will. I don't know, it will, it may take some time. If had it been implemented, it will become a normal wage bill.
That would have been almost INR 500 crore worth of additional wage bill on a month-on-month basis.
Okay. Got it. And, secondly, in terms of the expansion in CD ratio was there this quarter, but still, if we look at it in terms of margins, there was still some decline of 6 odd basis points. Would it be fair to assume that this would be more back-ended growth, and we will see the benefit on the-
You are very right-
-more towards.
because it would not have been uniform right from the first day of the quarter. It would have happened towards... It is normally seen towards the busy season and also later than the busy season. That is something which is there. And also, the fact remains that during the busy season, because in the retail sector, the competition really mounts, and then we have to give all kind of concessions, relief, et cetera. But nevertheless, the asset come to our book, so that is something which has happened. So I think it is more abnormality, considering the fact that we are chasing the quality, and for quality, we are willing to look at the lower risk. You will probably appreciate that the CRP naturally has to be lower for the better risk, and that is something which is the reason.
Yeah. And lastly, in terms of RBI's increase in risk weights, both for NBFC as well as unsecured. So maybe they have not highlighted any, which ways we have been commenting that our unsecured portfolio is much better than the secured as such. But just in terms of the RBI's indication or maybe highlighting that this could be the riskier segments, what would be our stance in both these segments? And are we passing it on in terms of the increase in the lending rates?
Yes. Yeah. We are actually, it has got an impact of about 49 basis points for our CET1 and 70 basis points for the capital adequacy ratio overall. So to that extent, the cost of capital has gone up while we are lending to this particular sector. And, when it comes to NBFCs, et cetera, we are passing on. We are actually have jacked up the pricing also.
To the extent of?
Depending upon each of the NBFCs, depending on their risk grade, we will look at it, how much we should bill.
On Express, we have not increased.
We have increased Xpress Credit.
We have increased in the Xpress Credit also.
Okay. Okay.
Next.
Yeah. Good evening. This is Mahesh from Kotak. Just to clarify on the question that he had asked, this INR 77,000 crore that you are saying includes the INR 7,100 crore?
No.
No. No.
But then I think the statement he's asked is right, right? Because in the nine months, you have provided 55.
I can clarify to this.
Look, come back again. I will just explain. So the wage revision impact is INR 18,000 crore - INR 127 crore for the whole year. So and for the next quarter, coming quarter, it's INR 5,409 crore. We have already made a provision of INR 12,718 crore during the nine months. And in FY 2023, we made a provision of INR 2,929 crore and INR 2,490 crore, okay? The staff expense, which anyways we are paying to the staff, no?
So you look at that, up to nine months, 2024, it is INR 42,171 crore. So three more months, we will pay the salaries and the pension and everything. That comes to INR 16,829 for the next quarter. Add to that INR 5,409 crore. Is it clear? So for the whole of next quarter, it is INR 22,238 crore, which is staff expenses plus the provision. Put together all of this, for the whole year, it is INR 77,000 crore-
Sure.
-127, which means INR 59,000 crore for the wage bill and plus INR 18,127 crore for the-
Sure.
-increase.
Mr. Khara, sir, if you look at the numbers today, your average wage cost, even if you exclude these one-offs, are running at about INR 30 lakhs which is significantly higher than almost all the public sector banks and the private banks put together. Any direction in which you want to see how does this number go? Because this is simply way too high that we are seeing out there.
Sorry, I could not get your question, please.
If you look at the wage cost for next year, which is about a little over INR 65,000 crore. On a 200,000 employee base, you're still looking at about a 3,000,000-
INR 200,000 crore, INR 235,000 crore.
Give or take, rough, the numbers will be work out to roughly about INR 30-odd lakhs per employee. Most banks are-
We have about 300,000 pensioners also.
How do you solve this problem? Because a large part of the current cost-
The problem which can be solved is only through improving the productivity, and that is something which we are trying to showcase. Our effort in terms of improving the productivity have already started yielding results. And I'm sure, going forward, this will also, this will also improve. The productivity will actually improve.
The kind of focus which we have on our digital. Today, almost INR 95,000 crore worth of loan book has been generated through the digital, and it is up by about 30%. Going forward, we expect that this particular lever will start creating value, and our back of envelope calculation is, as far as the pension obligations are concerned, that we should be in a position to meet by generating this incremental productivity through the digital. And we have got the attrition rate, which is just about 1%.
Perfect. So just two questions-
As compared to the industry level of 35, 35, 33, or whatever be the number.
Perfect. Sir, two questions. One is, what would be the outstanding, priority sector book and, RIDF investments? Or just specifically the RIDF investments.
That specific, we'll provide to you.
Okay, just one question to you, sir. The private, some of the NBFC-led banks, companies like PFC, REC, have become a little bit more aggressive on the power sector. For some time, we have seen almost all public banks, banks in general being slow on this sector. Is there any opportunity that is being missed here?
I don't see that we have missed out any opportunity. But yes, of course, as I mentioned, that we always evaluate the risk in terms of the return which we can get, and if at all it does not meet our risk appetite, we let it pass. So renewable energy is one of the areas where we are very clearly focusing, and we have developed the expertise also, and we are seeing good traction coming for that.
We have one last question from one more person.
No, no.
Hi, sir.
This gentleman is there.
Yeah. Bhavik from Morgan Stanley. Sir, two questions. First, sir, our other operating expenses growing at, say, 20% year-over-year. Sir, how should one look at it? Like, will this be elevated or should we normalize?
The other operating expenses. Can you please pull out the slide?
Sorry. Operating expenses, slide number 18.
Maybe if at all you can throw some light on this.
So, sir, majorly, sir, it comprises of the staff expense, as you can see in that, and also the pension.
No, so I mean, other operating expenses-
Other operating.
-excluding the staff cost.
Just a minute. Other operating expense. Overheads. Overheads, I don't think there's a very significant, number that we can-
In terms of absolute number, they are not really very big number.
Not very relevant, but anyway, I can tell you some of the items where we have seen this growth. One is business acquisition and development expense, which is to the tune of INR 711 crores. Other tech expenses to the tune of INR 371 crores. DICGC insurance , INR 230 crores. GST expense, INR 128 crores. Donations, INR 81 crores. P&T expenses, INR 74 crores. I don't think there is such a big number.
Basically, we have a quarterly run rate of, say, INR 11,000 crore.
So actually, see, one aspect which is there when it comes to the insurance, particularly deposit insurance, as the deposit grows, this will continue to grow.
Quarter-on-quarter, actually, it has gone down, sir . From 11,948, it has gone down to 11,577.
Yeah, that is for the, I mean, total overheads-
Yeah
have come down from INR 11,948 crore- INR 11,577 crore. And, I think, there is... The major items which are there is, one among them is ATM, CDM, debit card, and, those expenses, which I think is a cost of delivery, which will continue to be there. And, the other one is, the various acquisition and development expenses. Again, it is, it is corresponding to the various growth. It will continue to grow. So this is what is the behavior, what we'll get to see.
Sir, what will be the digital expenses as a part of this? Sir, should we expect this to go to INR 13,000 crore run rate per quarter next year or more than that?
Much of it, when it comes to digital, part of it would get depreciated also.
Okay. Okay.
We'll have to see that, that composition, how much we can depreciate, how much we can book in the revenue book. That is something which we'll see.
Sir, second question, sir. Recovery from return of accounts, the AUCA accounts, they have been around, say, INR 4,300 crore so far in the nine months. Sir, as in, how should one look at it? Like, how do we expect-
This stock is actually is now coming down. So I think... And also, there are no lumpy recoveries which are expected to come in. These are all non small value recoveries which will come in. But, yes, our effort is to see that, we should step it up as much as possible, but it has got its own limitation, because OCA is generally those accounts where the security, if at all it is there, is much lower, and, I mean, various such considerations are there when it comes to affecting recoveries in OCA accounts.
In the next six months, as in, do we expect anything significant from NCLT, like in the pipeline?
See, it is very difficult to predict what will come through NCLT.
Okay.
But nevertheless, our effort is to make, I mean, there's no, we don't let our effort go waste. We are pursuing quite actively, and wherever possible, we will certainly be looking at the outcome. But when it comes to NCLT, it is not merely what our efforts are. We have to depend upon the other members of the consortium, COC, et cetera, and there is a dependence on the decision taken by them also. So I think, and also the ecosystem, how the ecosystem works.
Sir, lastly, sir, as in from this INR 4,000 crore, and how much work is from NCLT, as in if you can shed some light, so that's-
I will not have that granularity.
No, we don't have anything from NCLT in this, at least as of the numbers. Basically, it is contributed by our retail branches to the tune of INR 1,537 crore. The specialized wing has contributed INR 2,758 crore. I think the biggest recovery during this year is around INR 200 crore for as far as lumpy recoveries are concerned. And IBG has had a small recovery of INR 33 crore.
So generally, these are all compromise is something which works much- True. or the surface reaction, which yields better results and faster results.
Okay. Thank you, sir, and, sir, good luck for your books.
Thank you.
Thank you. We have a few questions coming through here.
There was one question on RIDF outstanding.
Yeah.
The outstanding is INR 267,000 crore.
We have a few questions coming through the online webcast. These will now be addressed by the chairman, sir.
Yeah, this question has come from Aditi Nayar. With respect to business development expenses, there has been quite a significant jump since September quarter. I wanted for you to throw some light on the same. Business acquisition and development expenses has increased by INR 194 crore sequentially. On quarter-on-quarter basis, increase is due to amortization of the PSLC issuance charges of by INR 65 crore, and business operation expenses have gone up by INR 81 crore, and auto loan sourcing fee by INR 54 crore. That is the explanation for the business increase into business development expenses.
The other question has come from Mr. Anil Chaurasia: What were the number of branches at the end of December 2023? At the end of December 2023, we had 22,494 branches. Next question comes from Ashish Agarwal: Percentage of book linked to MCLR, TBR, and fixed rate book. MCLR, 37.6%, TBR is 27.4%, and fixed rate is 20.9%. Another question has come from Caji Philip: Any guidance on loan growth and deposit growth for financial year 2024?
We expect all scheduled commercial banks' deposit to grow by about 12%-13%, and ASCB advances to grow by 14%-15%. Accordingly, our deposit, our growth in deposit and credit is also expected to be in the similar range. Next question comes from Mr. Abhishek Murarka : Will any part of INR 7,700 crore provision recur from the next quarter onwards? Also, what will be the approximate additional wage provision you will have to make in fourth quarter? There will be no recurrence of this one-time provision.
This is something which I, I would like to mention, that it is only one time, and for the uniform pension from 40%-50%, and DR neutralization also is only 1,700, which is one time. There is no further repeat of such provisions. Provision to be made in Q4 of the financial year 2024 is about INR 5,400 crore for the increase in wage to 17%. Mr. Param Subramanian: Why did we see a drop in NIM? How much wage revision provisioning is still pending? NIM has come down mainly due to repricing of deposit at higher rates, mainly term deposits, and provision to be made in Q4 of financial year 2024 is INR 5,400 crore. Siddharth : Any special plans for agriculture business growth?
Agri advances have registered a growth of 18.12%, while we'll continue to grow in our traditional book in KCC and Agri gold loans. Now, our key focus area will be to finance all the players involved in the entire Agri value chain. Under investment credit, we are seeing a lot of opportunities under Atmanirbhar Bharat scheme of the government of India, that is AIF and the PMFME. We have launched two new products, namely Agri Enterprise Loan and Kisan Samriddhi Rin , which will enable us to onboard high-value farmers.
This question is from Ashish: Please tell us about exceptional item of INR 7,100 crore. One time provision for computation of pension from 40% to 50%, and dearness neutralisation for all pensioners, family pensioners who retired prior to 1st of November 2002. One-time provision for computation of pension is INR 5,400 crore. One-time provision for dearness neutralization is INR 1,700 crore.
Thank you, sir. I trust all the questions have now been addressed, and we'll be happy to respond to other questions in offline mode. Let me end the evening with thanking the chairman and the top management team, the analysts, and ladies and gentlemen. To round off this evening, and we request you to join us for high tea, which is arranged just outside the hall. Thank you.
Thank you very much to all of you. Thanks a lot.