Good morning, everybody. Just a quick summary on the quarter that just got done. Basically, our standalone Q2 PBT before exceptional items or EI was INR 164 crore. Revenue was at INR 1,667 crore compared with INR 1,087 crore of the same period in the previous year. ROIC annualized was at 48% for the quarter compared with 43% in the same year, previous same year period. Free cash flow for the quarter was INR 147 crore due to basically improved net working capital levels from the first quarter. The engineering business revenue for the quarter was INR 1,027 crore compared with INR 560 crore in the corresponding quarter the previous year. Profit PBIT was INR 102 crore against INR 84 crore.
Metal form revenue was INR 328 compared with INR 285 in the corresponding quarter the previous year. PBIT was INR 39 versus INR 33 in the corresponding quarter. Mobility had INR 262 crores in revenue, and that was compared with INR 200 in the corresponding quarter. PBIT was INR 20 crores compared to INR 18 crores in the same quarter previous year. For all our other businesses, revenue was INR 119 compared to INR 68 in the corresponding quarter previous year, and PBIT was at INR 12 compared to INR 6. Consolidated revenue for the quarter was INR 3,262 crores as against INR 1,193 crores in the corresponding quarter the previous year. This is because we had a full quarter of CG performance as well.
The PBT for the quarter was at INR 287 consolidated,INR 287 crores as against INR 136 crores in the corresponding quarter the previous year. CG Power, which is now a subsidiary company, where we have a 52.6% stake, had consolidated revenue of INR 1,464 crores during the quarter as against INR 64 crores in the corresponding quarter the previous year. Our PBT in CG was INR 144, as against a loss of INR 27 crores in the corresponding quarter the previous year. Shanthi Gears, in which we hold 70%, had a revenue of INR 72 crores during the quarter, as against INR 54 in the same quarter last year, and PBT was INR 11 as against INR 8. Commenting on the financial results, same here, Vellayan Subbiah.
As a result of the quarter, our testimony to the resilience shown by the company is bouncing back strongly with healthy performance, and most of its businesses retaining or surpassing pre-COVID levels. Engineering and Metal Forming Products division has witnessed good demand and export performance has also significantly improved. I'm also pleased to say that post TI's acquisition of CG Power, the company is on its recovery path with very encouraging performance in all of its businesses. With the impact of COVID receding, our businesses have started full operations. However, the company is taking adequate measures to monitor and control this to ensure steady operations. Thank you. I'll stop with that, and we will turn it over to you for questions. Thanks again.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Our recipients are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Anyone who wishes to ask a question at this time, you may please press star and one. First question is from the line of Abhishek Ghosh from DSP Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity. Just wanted to understand one thing around. Hello, am I audible? Hello?
Yeah, we can hear you.
Yeah. Cool. Thanks. Sir, just wanted to understand in terms of the gross margin erosion that one has seen, if you can just help us understand two things. A is that, you know, how much is that price increase, RM price increase have you been able to pass on and will it kind of normalize going forward? Second is also, you know, the increase in, you know, steel prices. What will happen is if you make 10 on 100, and if you make the same 10 on 150 because of the increase in steel prices, the gross margins appear lower, but you're still making on a unit basis the same things. So is it also because of that the gross margins are appearing lower? If you can just help us understand these two things.
Sure.
Right, Abhishek. You're absolutely right. That's what happens when it comes to gross margins. Whenever there is a significant increase in the raw material prices, which is what has happened in the last one year. That's why if you're comparing with Q2 of last year, you will see that impact to be quite significant. It's not erosion of margins, it is just numerator and denominator related stuff.
Okay. Are there some more price hike issue or kind of negotiation with the OEM because the price increase has been, you know, have been on a continuous basis. So going forward, will you see some impact of between negotiations and renegotiations of the contract, or is it largely priced in?
Yeah. See, most of the price increase we are able to recover right up to Q1. Q2 we had to recover in certain segments of the business, which will be happening in the third quarter.
Okay. The other thing is if I look at the engineering numbers, which has a lot of, you know, dependence on two-wheelers. If you look at the industry, two-wheeler numbers are slightly muted and moderated. If you look at your engineering segment, you are showing a very strong, improvement and growth there, both on a two-year CAGR basis and both on a YoY basis. How should one look at it? Is it just bridging? Is it because of higher steel price being passed on or is it because of higher exports? If you can just help us understand, it'll be very helpful.
Yeah. Mukesh is right. Your observation is right. It's a combination of three factors. First factor is the raw material prices has gone up. I think our export book is pretty strong. We going forward also see that same momentum will continue. Also we have gained some market share, when the market is not doing well. It's a combination of all three reflecting in the performance.
Healthy also.
Even the non-auto business, which is the hydraulic cylinder business, that is also export as well as domestic market, both are doing pretty well.
What will be exports as an overall, for us now?
For engineering business it's around 20% or 22%. For company as a whole, you see it's around 15%.
This 15% used to be 10% say year.
Yeah.
12%-15%.
Last quarter it was around 12%.
Okay. I have few more questions. I'll probably come back in this. Thank you so much, and wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may please press star and one at this time. Next question is from the line of Amit Kashyap from Subh Labh Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir.
Morning, Amit.
Sir,
No. I think, sorry, March quarter. I mean, last quarter in the financial year, March or it's like a quarter delay, South India launch, March.
EV Three-Wheeler or not scooter?
Oh, it's a EV Three-Wheeler, right. Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Reminder to our participants, please press star and one if you wish to ask a question. Next question is from the line of Anupam Gupta from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir. Couple of questions. Firstly on the mobility side, cycles basically, slightly volatile in terms of growth and margins. Let's say if I were to extrapolate what you are seeing right now in the market, how do you see the growth panning out over the next one year, assuming it doesn't revert back to what it was before COVID? How do you see that business panning out? In the same vein, you had earlier mentioned that exports there you plan to double in this year versus last year. Is that plan on track as of now?
They're both for mobility, so I think, Paul, can you just answer that, the question? Both were for mobility, I believe. Okay. Paul, are you there? Sorry. Okay. Sorry. Paul is not there. I think the first question was how do we see the market playing out for the rest of the year? You know, I think kind of, if you see it overall the market has been down versus last year. You know, we think that, you know, a similar trend will continue even for the next couple of quarters, where we don't see a massive revival. Usually like, you know, April, May, June is the biggest season.
I would say for the next two quarters as well, it'll probably be sort of single digits down compared to last year would be kind of our estimate. The second question was exports in cycles versus last year. Do you have that data?
It's not very significant this time. Yes, growth.
We do see growth, but it's not been significant yet, right, is the answer to that question.
Have you gained market share and do you see it continuing, so you will continue to grow faster than the market domestically?
We have gained market share. About 1% we've gained, domestic market share.
Fine. Second question was for the metal forming product business. I assume railways hasn't picked up yet there. What has actually driven the uptick? If I look at it, essentially there's a healthy growth which we see in metal forming products. Even YoY also it has been better. What has driven that sort of growth there in that business?
In metal forming products, the growth was mainly driven by the chain business, both the automotive chains and industrial chains. Also, we have been supplying to four-wheeler fine blank and, you know, BIW parts, door frame parts. These two BUs also have shown traction. Railways was down, the other businesses are picking, and this is how we see the growth.
Okay. Any traction which you see in the railways which remain muted?
Yeah, we see definitely improvement in railways in the coming quarters. They've started increasing their operating levels.
Mm-hmm.
In Q3 and Q4, we'll see progressive, you know, increases in our revenues and profits.
Okay. Understood. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Rahul Ranade from Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Just a couple of questions on the Metal Forming side of the business. Just curious to know why, you know, don't we see a similar growth in terms of the top line for the Metal Forming business like the engineering business, where even the Metal Forming business would also have that bit of a commodity impact which would drive the top line growth. In a similar light, like, if you look at it on a YoY basis, the margins which we have seen for the engineering segment because of the denominator effect, but why don't we see the same in the Metal Forming business also?
Rahul, that's a very good question. See, in Metal Formed business, the export content is relatively, you know, less. That is the reason the growth had not been as you compared with the engineering business. That is the answer to your first question. What is your second question?
Why don't we see the denominator effect of the commodity in the margins in the metal form if we are seeing that in the engineering segment?
Okay. Our contribution margins are fairly higher in Metal Formed Products . That is the reason the effect of raw material increase had not, you know, significantly affected the ratio.
Okay. In fact, actually the margins have gone up instead of down for the metal forming business, if I'm not wrong. Like if the commodity prices actually kind of cool off, then would the margins be even better than what they are right now, like two-year period sitting there?
You're right, Rahul. See, there are two factors to that. One is in metal forming products division, we have a good amount of after-market business.
Okay.
Right? After-market sales in Metal Formed Products division.
Sure. Yeah, even on a longer term basis, if I were to kind of look at it, you have kind of structurally been able to improve Metal Form product segment margins from 50%-70% to now let's say in the range of 10%-11%. What would have gone into these efforts? Is it some low margin business you have kind of given away or is it just, you know, improvements on our part that we've been able to improve the margin?
It's in all the business units of the Metal Forming products division. We have worked on, you know, efficiency improvements internally for bringing down the break-even limits. That has actually contributed to the improvement in the bottom line. That is the improvement you are seeing in percentages compared to the earlier years.
The mix of business also plays a role here.
Correct.
As KRS explained, the highly profitable businesses like auto chains have done well. That mix advantage is also here.
Sure, sure. Probably the mix more in favor of auto chains instead of, you know, kind of railway contribution which would be little lower margin business. Is that the way to understand?
Yes, that is also one of the factors.
Okay. Got it.
Okay.
Thank you. Thank you. I'll share my screen.
Thank you. Next question is on the line of Sundareshan Satyamurthy from Spark Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello, Vellayan team. Thanks for the opportunity.
Hi.
Hello.
Yeah, yeah. Can you hear me?
Yes. The first question is on the engineering business, exports. Given a ballpark indication, are the margins in the export business in line with
Yeah, yeah, that's true.
This quarter then largely only the numerator is known lower margins on the bottom line. Is my understanding right?
Yes. Like Mahendra explained already, there's a numerator and denominator effect only.
Right. I would also like to confirm with Vellayan Subbiah in terms of how the demand outlook panned out in terms of the volume demand, what have you seen in terms of the order book?
It looks like there is a mixed reaction will be there, like commercial vehicle industry and the infrastructure related are expected to do pretty well. As you are already aware, the chip shortage is impacting to some extent two-wheeler as well as passenger vehicles. Export demand looks to be pretty strong even going forward.
Okay. Thank you. On page one, there's one particular country that you have mentioned, Chennai, for a particular safety component that is due second quarter.
Yes, yes, we have commissioned in month of September, and the trials are on, and we're expected to ramp up the facility by December.
Yes, thank you. One last question, any update on the lens business?
Oh, wait.
Go on.
Yeah, optic lens. If you know, the plant has been commissioned. The production is going on. There is some lull in terms of demand because of the chip shortage for all the, you know, camera module and its components. That is temporary, we suppose. Once that is over, the demand is likely to come.
Fair enough, sir. Thanks and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vimal Gohil from Union AMC. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. I had two questions. One is from the Others segment. I think the Others segment contributed very recently in your results, and how will you house your newer initiatives that they're taking. Over a period of time, I noticed a very good ramp-up. We are now very close to 124%. If you could just highlight maybe, you know, in which segment in the Others we are seeing this growth or contribution. That is point number one. The second question is a clarification on the cycles as per the mobility business which has majority cycles as of now. Mr. Vellayan, you mentioned that the market is sort of not doing good right now. I'm not sure if I understood that right.
If you could just sort of reiterate your outlook on the industry as well as your performance in that segment. Thank you so much.
Yeah. As far as the first question is concerned, the other segment mainly comprises of industrial chain, which is what we acquired, CG, last quarter. Plus also it has these other new businesses, which are just ramping up. We have just come out of lockdown, and they're just ramping up. Maybe after a couple of years, I think we'll be in a position to talk about those volumes. Right now it's predominantly industry-based.
If that's the case, then your major customers would actually be autos and railway, right?
Correct.
Cool. No misconception. Fair enough. Sir, if you could just help me clarify the comments made in the cycles industry as well as your company performance. Because clearly we've done really well. We are way above what we were, you know, in 2020 as well. Just help me understand that.
There was a specific question in terms of, you know, what the market was doing. What I said was the market is down versus last year, right? Compared to last year, the market is down almost 12%. This was a specific question. Like you said, we have changed our whole model there. We've gone with a very lean operating model, and we are actually seeing good results from that as a result. That's why you're seeing stronger performance from TI. It's two separate points. You know, one is what's happening to the market, one is what's happening to TI.
Right. Market being 12%, I mean, 12%, I'm assuming it is in value terms versus our, I mean, in the process we've grown almost 14%. So that's.
That's why I said, I mean, like, our performance is different from kind of where the market is now.
Right.
One of the reasons, obviously, like I said, is we've also gained market share. We've also shifted our mix significantly towards, you know, higher value products. Basically on both counts, on a volume count and a value count, we've done better. Overall, you know, profitability has also improved in that business. The business continues to get stronger. The specific question I was responding to was the fact that the market is softer than the market was last year. We expect that softness in the overall market to continue. I wanna detach that from our performance, which has been strong.
Got it. Sir, in details, how much is your domestic sales currently? Since, of course, this is the first time since the split has been above, how much is your domestic exports, say?
The metric is predominant. I think it's like 97% or something. 97% domestic.
Got it. The last question is, given that due to the engineering phase, exports has gone from being 10% to 20% in the first half of this past period. The export space has better margins, is what you said, right?
Yeah, no, I was comparing QoQ, too. Q1 it was around 12%. It went up to around 20% this year.
Okay. Got it. Fair enough. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is on the line of Abhishek Ghosh from DSP Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity again. A few questions in terms of what will be the broad factory utilizations in each of the segments or at a consolidated level? Just to understand when we should see the acceleration in CapEx in the next round.
I would say, like, obviously in cycles we have enough capacity available because we have both plants, right? In mobility, we're not short of capacity. I mean, let the other two divisions, the division heads will just give the answer.
In metal forming products, we use about 80% of the overall capacity, all units put together. We have still room for about 20% more, you know, products can be made as much.
In the engineering division, I think we are already close to 90% of capacity utilization and also our capacity expansion, like what we mentioned, for the critical part is already commissioned in September, and we are also expanding in Rajpura. With both, again, we will be covered up for next two years growth cycle.
Broadly, should we look at about INR 200 crore of CapEx annual, broadly, just given the current-
Yeah. This year it could be slightly higher, somewhere between INR 200-INR 250 we may end up spending.
Okay.
Because we have the EV project also, EV Three-Wheeler project.
Okay. Great. The other thing is, export is a segment which is doing very well for you. When we hear from a lot of these companies who are exporting, they are seeing issues of freight rate increasing, container shortages. Just to understand this 20% exports which you speak about, could that have been 25% if the freight rates were normalized, container things were normalized? Any thoughts around that and your competitiveness given the freight rate increases?
Maybe I'll give one answer. Mukesh will give you a perspective, okay? Abhishek, but I think first of all you have to understand is like, honestly, nobody understands fully what's going on in the world right now. Okay.
Sure.
There are too many things that are going crazy. Obviously, the one advantage we have in steel is that kind of the raw material cost in India right now still seem to be advantaged, especially versus the U.S., which is basically seeing steel raw material costs at a much higher price. Therefore, the export kind of gap, right, despite the fact that, you know, basically container costs have gone up like crazy and all of that, the export market is still sound right now, right? Now, this is dependent on various dynamics, right? I would say like everything else in like nowadays, China seems to be at the center of what's gonna happen with it, right?
You know, right now it looks like the stances that are being taken, so both by China domestically in terms of shutting down steel capacity, therefore, you know, steel prices kind of varying. Honestly, I don't think steel prices have varied so much by geography. Historically, I've never seen such spreads. The steel price spread combined with everything else is what's kind of defining this, right? Your question on kind of will the margins improve, if, you know, container prices come down, I think more than container prices, the bigger question is gonna be what happens to everything else, right? What happens to the steel price spread, what happens to, you know, America's outlook towards China. Those will be the two biggest factors I would say that would drive what happens more than the container prices.
Obviously, container prices coming down will help. These other two factors, if those spreads continue to kind of remain as high, then that will be a larger driver than the container.
India in terms of exporting is kind of favorable because of the steel price spread despite container prices moving up.
Absolutely. No, that's the single. I mean, that gap kind of far outweighs the other gaps right now. What is the math, Mukesh? Right now how much is, like, the domestic price of steel in the U.S. running what?
Currently in India it is running around $1,000 and U.S. market is running around $1,700.
That's the spread you're seeing right now, Abhishek, right?
Yes.
that far outweighs the cost to transport that ton, right. What is that 20ton thing to the U.S. right now?
Those costs have gone up.
I know.
Uh-
How much would a 20ton container cost to the U.S. right now?
It is almost about now crossing $150, or so.
Per ton. Basically you're seeing the swing in container prices would have been almost like $100, right? More than $100.
Yes.
Whereas the swing right now in raw material prices like you can see, the gap is almost $700.
Okay.
So-
Very good. Thank you so much for making it simple.
That should help you with your math obviously. All I'm saying is like, you know, if container prices come down, that's not gonna be, I mean, it depends on what the other spread is also sitting at now.
Sure. Can I just one more thing in terms of if you look at the journey of TI last, like, three and a half to four years since you've kind of taken over.
Abhishek, your audio is very low, sir.
Hello. Is this better now?
Yeah.
Is this better?
Yeah.
Sir, just taking a step back, looking at the journey over the last three to four years. First was the cost efficiency margin improvement program which you kind of achieved. Then was, you know, getting into an acquisition, which you have just done about 12 months back. While, you know, the benefits are still to kind of come through, the larger benefits, at least it seems to be stabilizing the way we are seeing it. What's now the most the way we should look forward in terms of capital allocation, you're generating almost INR 600 crores of cash flow every year, so when it goes into the CapEx. How should one look at the company the next way forward or just in time around when you kind of decide on that? Just your thoughts on that.
I think we've articulated a bit, Abhishek , you know, and that story is not changing so much, right? Like we said, you know, the way we look at it, like, you know, with that INR 200 crore- INR 250 crore CapEx, TI- 1 will continue to be able to grow at between 6%-10% a year, right? That is the core. That is what's gonna generate that, you know, free cash flow like you said. It won't be INR 600 crore, but it'll be kind of, you know, maybe north of like INR 400 crore-INR 450 crore or so. But you're right. Basically, kind of that's the cash flow being generated after the CapEx to the 6%-10%, right? TI- 1 will continue to grow at 6%-10%.
There's still more work to be done on lean there. We're starting on that lean efficiency initiative. I shouldn't call it lean efficiency, but it's a lean initiative that's basically starting next month. This month?
This month.
Next month. That will start then, you know, kind of we need to kind of look at the next level of opportunity in terms of margin improvement in the core businesses. That is step number one, right? That's what's gonna spin off the cash. The cash, like we've said before, will be used for TI-2 and TI -3, right? The idea with TI -2 is to build these new platforms, but these platforms won't be what generates the revenue or the bottom line for us now. We're investing in those platforms, so that five to seven years down the line it can keep our compounding rate at the same level, right? TI -3 will be kind of much lumpier, and we still got to look for opportunities there.
Like we said, kind of the key thing was that we had to be kind of debt-free. Like we said, also, you know, CG is looking much more positive now. As we get more confidence that the two companies are kind of in that, you know, getting to that debt-free position, we will start looking at other opportunities on that front as well. The path remains kind of the same, right? I mean, the long-term objective, Abhishek, like we said, is over time, we want to build 10 business platforms, each of which, you know, can basically have multiple divisions and each of which is basically focused on their own line of business. Towards that end, I'd say we have like maybe four business platforms now, and then we have to kind of grow out the rest over time, right?
That's basically why we're seeding TI-2 and TI-3. Each of these will then become deliverable engines unto themselves, right? Over time, we've talked about this whole compounding story. Internally we have maps in terms of how it will work. Basically, that is what I mean, the focus of it all is like a compounding cash flow engine that continues to compound. May not be the rates we've done for the last two, three years, but definitely kind of at a 25%+ rate, you know, over a long period, right? I mean, our design is designed to kind of let it get it to compound at that rate over a 10-year period.
Thank you so much for charting out the strategy and wish you and your team all the best, sir. Thank you so much, sir.
Thanks, Abhishek.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Niket Shah from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Just a couple of questions. One is on the engineering part of the business. While Abhishek did ask a question about the numerator denominator on the raw material side, was there any role played by any product mix which bring margins to slightly lower levels?
No. Like we said earlier, there is no margin erosion. It's a numerator and denominator effect.
Nominal. Got it. Apart from the cycle business, are there any other businesses within, particularly the engineering business and the metal forming business which are lower than the company average margin?
Right now, the railways business. Traditionally, it has not been, but right now, the railways business. It's because the volumes are so low over there.
Okay, got it. We should see things improve gradually. Just one final question, if you can highlight on the optic lens business, although it might be very small today, what would be the margin that one can realistically hope, given the plant run rate and so on and so forth?
See, what we have said, Niket, is that this all we did with this was just to be able to prove that we can actually make these chips, right?
Right.
In steady state it will have like, you know, our belief is like 15% margin, but that's not gonna happen with this facility. This facility is too small for that. We spent only INR 30 crores on it.
Sure. Right.
All we were trying to do is kind of ensure that we can get the quality. Once we feel comfortable that, you know, customers are satisfied and the quality is there, is when we'll really invest to build that business at scale. The current version won't have those kinds of margins.
Got it. Is it safe to assume that, given the numerator denominator effect, broadly the margins would have bottomed out at current levels and we should only see improvement from here on? It's a gradual but, obviously there are a lot of moving parts on raw material side, but assuming raw material where it's at today, we should see margins only improve from current levels and not decline.
Yeah. Obviously there are initiatives going on to improve the margins, right?
Okay.
I think like, you know, obviously this was a huge move on the denominator, right? Basically, the denominator moved for almost.
70%.
70%. Yeah. Actually to kind of maintain it close to 10% when the denominator has moved 70%, you can kind of reverse the math and see what we've actually gone to if the denominator was the same as before, right?
Right.
I think, yeah. Obviously kind of the initiative is gonna be to improve margin. It gives us kind of an opportunity now to kind of do work more at it, which anyway the teams are working on right now.
Perfect. That would have some benefit, while it's obviously a negative margin because of numerator, but it also has some positive benefit on the top line. So it kind of converges both sides. When the raw material comes in it kind of converges both sides, right?
It all is commodity sitting at these levels, you know. You know, it's a crazy situation here, Niket.
Yeah. Yeah.
It's top line, but it's not like you know, the whole top line is vanity statement, right?
Yeah.
That's the danger with this, right? Which is like, you know, the real growth we look at and measure internally is whether tonnage is moving or not.
Right.
That's our focus. Will continue to be our focus, right?
Absolutely. Perfect. Thank you so much, and bye-bye.
Yeah, thanks, Niket.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Nishit Jalan from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for giving me the opportunity. My question basically, I just wanted to hear your thoughts and strategy on the TI-2 business. I know you have outlined it very well in the past. I have some specific questions. First, how do you decide or what are the key criteria which you use to decide which businesses to enter? Is it ROC? Is it customer driven? This question is also from the perspective that in earlier con calls you highlighted that there is a company you would want to diversify away from autos, right? Because it's very high CapEx intensity and very cyclical. If I look at the three big businesses on the TI-2 side that we are seeding, right?
The optic lens, the truck body building, and the EV Three-Wheeler all are pertaining to auto side. Just wanted to hear, incrementally from here on, should we assume that you would look more into non-auto businesses? From a top-down perspective, do we have any target in terms of what kind of investments or cumulative bets we would be seeing into TI-2 over the next five years? The entire free cash flow generation from the core business will go into this, or you would try to maintain some dividend policy as well and distribute that out, that would take out some cash and the remaining would go into these businesses. Thank you so much, sir.
First, yes, dividend policy, you know, I think that will kind of continue in its current form, right? We will continue dividend, so we won't stop that. That's the first thing. You know, obviously, as the cash flow improves, it gives us, you know, a fair amount of free cash even after the dividend policy and CapEx for existing businesses. If I had to estimate once growth starts kicking in, I would say that we would be spending at least INR 200 crores a year on TI-2 like opportunities going forward. Your third question was, are we gonna diversify away? Anyway, just one statement I'd made also, you know, on the auto space is that we wanna kind of move away from auto component supply, right?
EV Three-Wheeler we see as an opportunity because the OEM business in India, in auto has definitely been better than the component business. We continue to see that as an opportunity and hence the EV Three-Wheeler. Now coming to how do we select, right? We've talked about our criteria in the past. I think it's kind of well documented in calls. We basically said, you know, for TI-2, I'm talking about lower capital intensity. You know, looking at kind of the right mix of kind of B2C and B2B, looking at unorganized to organized as a trend, and then playing off of what we see as a mega trend, right? Kind of, you know, electric vehicles obviously, and ADAS were one.
We talked about kind of, you know, like our interest in medical comes from the fact that, you know, India continues to spend more on medical. I think India's healthcare as a percentage of GDP is about 2.5%-3% versus the U.S., which is almost at 20% if you take healthcare and providers. There are segment kind of shifts that we see because of mega trends that we see driving some of the areas we're looking at. We actually are working, you know, with some consultants also in terms of identifying opportunity areas to get to. That's helping us basically identify what we see as areas with greatest potential.
Like I said, I mean, like there are a whole bunch of mega trends that we look at, including most lately, this whole area of China Plus One, right? Where, people are beginning to look at India as a second source in some businesses. I would say that it's a combination of those factors that's basically kind of allowing us to develop filters and decide which businesses we get into. As we kind of get into a new platform, obviously we do communicate it with you and we'll continue to do that going forward.
Thank you, sir. Just some small follow-up. On this optic lens, I think we have set up about 6 million capacity on an annual basis. Just wanted to understand what is the revenue potential from the current capacity that we have set up. Just wanted to understand the asset turns in this business.
It's tiny. You can look at it at about $0.50-$0.60 a lens, right? $0.50 a lens, you're talking just about $3 million. It's a very small business.
Okay. Does that mean that the asset turns in this business are less than one because we have invested INR 30 crore or basically or maybe a lot of CapEx has gone initially into land and building which will not recur? What asset turns can we see in this business once we scale up this into a much, much bigger plan?
Sir, when you really scale up the, you know, asset to turnover, maybe investment to turnover ratio will be better. This is only a pilot investment.
Right.
Otherwise-
What will it be?
It will be around about 1x- 1.5x.
You're saying sales will be 1.5x?
Investment.
Sales will be 1.5 x investment.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pradeep Prasad from IDFC Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. When you were talking about the growth of 45% over the next 10 years, I was just wondering, you know, how much of that growth will come from the current platforms that you talked about, zero chrome, and what do you expect from the new platforms, whether they are currently in incubation period or something that you may do inorganically.
Like we said, right, 6%-9% is the revenue. By the way, we're talking about bottom line growth, not top line.
Okay.
The revenue growth is 6%-9% in the existing businesses. If you average that at like, let's say seven and a half, and you have some margin expansion on top of that, you'll only get 8%-10% coming from the existing businesses. The remaining 15%-17% has to come from new businesses. I'm talking again about bottom line growth. In some cases, it will be lumpy like the CG acquisition, in which case, kind of, you know, you'll get a lumpy chunk coming in from that. That's why we said that TI-3 has to be able to seed it in the years, and in the out years, basically it will be driven by TI-2 opportunities.
Understood. From the business, given the growth you have seen, you know, the question is that, clearly you are gaining market share. Is it because of, one, you said product mix, but is it also because the competitive intensity has gone down? If you can just give some clarity around the competitive intensity there.
I'll put it a different way. I would say that our competitive intensity has gone up, right? Basically on a relative basis is what you have to look at these things. I would say that we are competing a lot more aggressively in that business. Paul, I don't think, is on the call, but Paul and team are basically doing a great job there.
Sure. If I may just ask one more there. Are you seeing that it's you are, you know, discounting or you are being more aggressive to take market share and your competitors, the number of competitors, let's say, in the business is still the same that it was, let's say, a year ago?
No. See, first off, I mean, we're not discounting. You can see that basically our margins have gone up as well, right?
Right. Right.
Right. It's not like we're discounting and kind of dropping margins to basically gain market share. You can see that, right? Basically, this is why I'm trying to explain to you the way we compete is what we've changed, right? It's basically they've gotten a lot more leaner in the way we compete, right? We're able to kind of respond to you know, kind of the channels much more efficiently. We're able to you know, basically service the channels and work with the channels a lot more effectively and to create product that is much more relevant to the end consumer. In terms of NPD, in terms of you know, supply chain, in terms of you know, overall efficiency, even in terms of cost, that's how we've basically been driving in this situation.
Thank you. My last question for the time being on Shanthi here, you know, what is the capacity utilization and what do you see the prospects going forward? Do you see the industrial growth coming back? Because it has been so, let's say, in the last five years. Just curious about your thoughts on that business.
Yeah. Capacity utilization is not that high in Shanthi. I'd say it's at about 70% overall. In terms of prospects, I mean, it's definitely with capital goods coming back, you know, in a fairly big way. At least we think that infrastructure and capital goods are gonna come back in a fairly big way. That is something that we are quite confident of.
Okay. Thank you. All the best.
Thank you. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Mitul Shah from Reliance Securities. Please go ahead.
You said that you have gained 1% of market share. How much is the market share change in domestic?
Sorry. Do you understand? Yeah, please repeat it. Please speak a little louder.
You said that you have gained 1% of market share this quarter. How much is the total market share?
He said total market share. Okay.
Huh?
Our market share will be around 25%. Our market share is about 25%.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Vimal Gohil from Union AMC. Please go ahead.
Thanks again. Just a question again on the optic lens business. You both have done some sort of capacity sizing exercise for future of lens point lenses. If you could help us give us some numbers as to what could be the sizes in India for lens, any market share numbers that you would be sharing for that?
Yeah. This business was not focused on India at all. Given what we're making today, nothing we sell in India. We export everything. Okay? It's 100% focused on exports because there are only 3 countries in the world where this is getting produced right now. Maybe four if you include Taiwan. China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. It's getting increasingly uncompetitive to make it in Japan and Korea. We're making it in India and exporting it. We're not focused on the local market. The global market for lenses right now is about $4 billion-$5 billion.
The end market that you're targeting is usually auto, right?
Yes. Yes. It'll be auto right now.
Fair. The $4 billion-$5 billion is the end market for optic cameras. For automotive optic cameras.
These are just the lenses, right? Once you get the cameras.
I'm sorry.
Thank you. I remind you, participants, please press star and one if you wish to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Aman Raizada from Jeetay Investments. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you for the opportunity, sir. My question is on Shanthi Gears. You answered in the earlier question. My main question is, we see good revenue booking over last three quarters there. Should we see that flow through the revenue profile over the coming quarters? The second part to this is the composition of order book should also lead us to the similar gross profit margin that we are earning right now. Yeah.
Yeah, see, I'll tell you that business is a business that's slightly challenged right now because the whole supply chain has been hit, right? Which is basically kind of even getting steel right now in that business, because it basically uses forged steel. It's totally different process. Is a challenge in that business right now. So the challenge in that business, I would say right now is not as much with demand as it is with kind of the supply chain and our ability to meet that demand. So that's why, you know, I'm kind of more wary about giving any potential outlook on on what we will get over the next couple of quarters. But I hope that answers your question.
Right. Yeah. Also we have unused land available, if I'm not wrong, in Shanthi Gears. How do we plan to use that land, which is, I think, lying idle or something?
No. Obviously, we will look at it as our business is expanding. We'll look at it. We'll obviously look at that as one of the alternatives. If it appears that Coimbatore is the right place to put in some of those businesses. Beyond that, we have no plans right now.
Right. Sure. Lastly, there is board composition change at Shanthi Gears. Would you shed some light on any reason for that or just a technical reason for that required for this change?
Yeah. It is driven by multiple things. I mean, as I look at kind of I think you asked me why I got off the board, and I think that the reason for that was basically because as I look at my overall responsibility, I basically kind of while I continue to have oversight over Shanthi in my role as MD of TI, you know, I want to pass some of those responsibilities. Every year we've said the same thing, right? Which is, that you know, the only way the company can scale is that if I keep passing some of my responsibilities over to my direct reports.
From that perspective, what has happened in Shanthi is, and Mukesh, who is one of my direct reports right now at TI, has kind of taken over my responsibility there at Shanthi. I continue to have responsibility and oversight over the company as GMD of TI.
Okay. Okay, that is helpful, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that would be our last question for today. Closing comments. Thank you and over to you.
I think, nothing else from my side. Hopefully, we've answered all of your questions. I turn it over to Operator.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf.