Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome to the Q3 FY 2020 earnings call of Tube Investments. From the management, we have Mr. S. Vellayan, Managing Director, and Mr. Mahendra Kumar, Chief Financial Officer. I shall hand over the call to Mr. Vellayan for his opening comments, post which we shall open the floor for Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, Sir.
Okay. Thanks, Aditya, and good morning, everybody. For the quarter ended 31st December, I think I'll just go through the quick highlights. Basically, given the overall environment, we've been hit on the revenue front. Our revenue basically was at INR 976 crores for the quarter, which is a drop of 27% over Q3 of last year, mainly because of degrowth in the auto industry. PBT, however, before exceptional items, was at INR 95 crores. Our PBT last year for the same period was INR 93 crores, excluding the special dividend of INR 29 crores that we received from Shanti Gears. On a like-to-like PBT basis, actually, we've been slightly better off than we were last year. That's predominantly driven due to kind of the efficiency drives and the bottom-line focus we've had as a company over the past two years. The ROCE basically was at 21%.
That just moved up from 20% in the corresponding period last year. Free cash flow was at INR 341 crores, which was 133% to PAT. Basically, we've also taken the lower tax rate of 22%, and we're taking that result in benefit, recognizing that over three quarters. That gives us a benefit on the PAT side as well. In terms of individual businesses, engineering revenue was at INR 502 crores compared with INR 747 crores in the same period last year. That business has been the most hit. The PBIT for that business was at INR 60 crores for this quarter as against INR 59 crores for the same quarter last year. ROCE for the division was at 41%, as against 36% for the same quarter last year.
Cycles, basically our revenue was at INR 146 crore compared to INR 298 crore in the same quarter last year, predominantly due to our exit from the institution business. The PBIT for the quarter was at INR 1 crore as against INR 6 crore in the corresponding quarter in the previous year, again, driven by institution. ROCE for the division improved to 17% as against 8% for this quarter last year. That was driven predominantly by our work on reducing working capital and therefore the overall capital employed. Metal forming has basically had a growth of 5%. This is the metal formed products and railways business. Revenue for the quarter was at INR 370 crore versus INR 353 crore in the same quarter last year. PBIT was at INR 33 crore as against INR 35 crore in the corresponding quarter in the previous year.
We've had growth in railways, industrial chains, and in fine blanking, which basically helped compensate for some of the degrowth in auto in that segment. ROCE for the segment is 31% as against 28% in the same year last year. Consolidated revenue was INR 1,087 against INR 1,458, and PAT was at INR 82 as against INR 65. Shanti Gears also had a lower quarter at INR 58 crores versus INR 62 crores in the same quarter last year. PBT for Shanti Gears is INR 8 crores versus INR 12 crores in the same quarter last year. That's a quick summary of kind of our current position, and we'll stop now and be happy to take questions from the audience. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question, you may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. A reminder to the participants, anyone who wishes to ask a question, you may press star and one. The first question is from the line of Ashutosh Tiwari from Equirus. Please go ahead. Mr. Tiwari, your line is in talk mode. Kindly go ahead with the question.
Hello, Sir. Congrats on strong ROCE performance over last one year. Firstly, I wanted to understand that definitely you are cutting down in the institutional sales in cycles. If I look at the engineering business also, there was a sharp decline over last two quarters. Obviously, industry was doing very badly in Q2, but there was some recovery in third quarter. Is it that we're also cutting down on the low margin business in engineering as well? Or this is more to do with our mix or the OEM that we are servicing?
Yeah. It's more driven by mix. Basically, we have a higher dependence, and we have two-wheeler, which is basically kind of a fairly large dependence for us as well. We are seeing quite a bit of a mix change. The second thing also in that business is that you are right, which is we are not dropping price significantly, and that has led to a little bit of loss in market share. Basically, the way we see it is that it will come back to us over time, right? Because guys who are just dropping price again, share has been our preferred strategy not to do that. Those are the two factors that are driving it there.
Is it also that, let's say, steel would be main raw material in this segment, and I think over the last one year, if we're comparing the last two, three months, there was a steep drop in steel prices. Obviously, your pricing also in terms of pass-through of steel prices would have also impacted the variations of it. Is that correct?
Correct. You're right.
Okay. Sir, secondly, in this engineering segment, going ahead, what will be key drivers for this apart from industry revival? We had talked about how we entered this large diameter tubes as well. Just some picture on going ahead, how do you think the business will grow?
Yeah. Basically, right now, if we take the mix of businesses we've got, our tubular front fork business, which is a fairly large business for us, which is quite linked to the two-wheeler segment in India, right?
Yeah.
The good news with that is that as some of the new products move to with BS-VI, we're seeing some of the new products and even scooter products move to tubular front fork. That will help us grow in that segment. Okay? Tubular front fork, I think, will grow in India. What we're seeing now is kind of a near-term blip, and that segment will come back. What we are focused on heavily is kind of developing a couple of new products that we think can be like tubular front fork, for us going forward. Right? We've ordered a mill for one specific product like that. Just so you know, delivery times for these things are nine months. We've placed the orders for that.
We see that the new products that we can get into are at least as large as the tubular front fork business, if not larger. Then the second trend, like you correctly pointed out, is that large diameter tubes are also down right now, both in India and globally. We do see that that will also come back when the demand comes back, either globally or in India, and we're kind of open to demand coming back in either space. We don't know when it's going to come back, but when demand picks up in either of those geographies, we're ready for that as well. Basically, three sets of opportunities. One is growth in the existing products. That's happening by new products like scooters and all that coming in with BS-VI. The second is totally new products, and the third is large diameter.
Okay. Can I just mention roughly what's the content in a scooter of this front forks for you in terms of some color on that?
No, I don't think we discussed, because then basically we've got one product, we'll be giving you effectively the pricing on that product.
Okay. No issues. I think recently Activa has moved to front fork, so maybe that would be what you're referring to?
Yes, that will definitely help us. That's a large product, and we've got a large share in that product already.
Okay. Sir, lastly, on this cycles side, will the revenue rate be similar to what we've seen in the current quarter in terms of going ahead, or there could be variation?
No, I would say there will be a pickup from this.
Okay. Sure. Okay, thank you. I join the queue.
Thank you. A reminder to the participants, anyone who wishes to ask a question, you may press star and one at this time. The next question is from the line of Sachin Shah from Emkay Investment. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Sir, and thank you for this opportunity. Really nice to know that in spite of such large top-line variations, we've been able to maintain our profitability. Very heartening to know that.
Thank you.
What I would like to understand is that on these large diameter pipes in your engineering business, you did say that the demand both domestic and globally seems to be subdued at this point in time. What exactly are the demand drivers for this product? And what should we really be looking at where we will get some sense that this business is now about to gain some traction for the next few couple of two, three, four years?
You're talking about large diameter in specific?
Yeah. Something like that. Yeah.
Large diameter basically is the two things, right? One is as we offer broader range, right? Basically, we export that product and we sell it domestically. Largest applications are in a lot of these tippers and e arth-moving equipment, right? Obviously some of that is linked to what's going on in the overall industry, where both CVs and tippers are significantly down. Right? It's linked to, we also export that product to China, and we export it to some parts of Europe as well. What we're seeing is that those markets are also down, right? The Chinese market has been down significantly this year.
Right.
As a result of that, basically what we are linked to is the return of that whole construction equipment space, and tipper segment. When that segment comes back, large diameter will grow with that when it comes back.
Okay. Got it. On the metal formed products We have this decent amount of business coming from the door frames in the auto. How is the outlook there? I think we've been present where a couple of these companies or their models are actually doing quite well in the market. Is that helping you?
Right. Yeah. Actually, just to give you a sense, I would say that we've seen less decline in that segment versus the others. Even our customers have seen a decline in that segment.
Okay.
It's the first time that kind of some of them have dropped. That is a challenge. The decline has been less than others.
Right. Okay. The other thing is that we've been hearing or talking to a few large OEM companies on the auto side, on the domestic business. The sense that we get is that at this point in time, most of them are optimistic in terms of a high- single digit volume growth or so, say for the next 12 months. Right? Any sense that you are getting in terms from, because you are some of their key suppliers, what is their outlook that they're giving it to you? You have some sense for the next 12 months, what do you see the domestic auto volume growth?
Yeah, honestly, we don't want to develop too much of a sense because everybody is kind of, like we've often said on calls before, kind of crystal ball gazing is not kind of what we get.
Sure.
What we do or do well, right?
Right.
Our general belief is that even if growth did not come back into the market next year.
Right.
We will deliver the next 12 months with a better performance, with quite a bit better performance than we've delivered this year. That's what we have confidence that we can do.
Can you elaborate a little bit, two, three drivers, which will do this for you?
Basically, like you know, in existing businesses, we've done a lot of work to turn around and start strengthening cycles. Those cycles, revenue will be down. We're convinced that cycles will deliver better numbers for us, bottom line numbers for us next year. By the way, I'm talking about bottom line. I mean, because I can't predict top line. Okay.
Right.
I'm saying bottom line-wise.
Okay.
Cycles will deliver stronger numbers than it will this year. Right? Second is that auto chains, we made a significant change in strategy and started focusing on the aftermarket. That as a strategy is beginning to pay off, and we're getting better margins from that business, so that will begin to pick up as well.
Okay.
In our fine blanking businesses, we started turning towards external customers, which are non-auto. Basically, I should say export customers that are non-driven by the Indian auto environment.
Okay.
That will also help us on the growth side. Railways as a business will continue to grow. Industrial chains will continue to grow. On our existing businesses where there's no growth, we're still focused on a lot of the efficiency drivers that we've been talking about for the last two years. That will continue to yield results. As a combination of those things, we feel quite convinced that we will deliver a stronger year next year, even if there's no market growth.
Okay. Thank you. This is really heartening to know that in spite of not taking top-line growth into consideration, you will be able to manage your costs and efficiency so well that we will not be hurt on the bottom line, which is very heartening to know. Congratulations. Thank you so much.
Yeah, thank you. Thanks so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aditya Bagul from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. Two questions from my end. Firstly, Mr. Vellayan, if you can talk about how is our capacity utilization moving towards in terms of the first two segments, your engineering and your metal formed product. What was it in maybe FY 2019, and what is it today?
Yeah. in both, I would say, you're talking about engineering and metal formed, right?
Yeah.
I would say definitely, the good thing is that in engineering, we do have capacity, plus we added some more capacity in Rajpura as well. Now, not only do we have capacity, I'd say we're better geographically balanced as well. Now over 80% of North demand has been satisfied by Northern production this year, which again helps with our efficiencies because we're spending less on transporting tubes from the South to the North. Right? We've got adequate capacity in the North to handle growth of our Northern clients as well. That number from 80% will go to North of 90% next year. Pretty much all Northern demand will be catered for in the North. That gives us excess capacity in the South to push into export markets as well.
South are well positioned because they're on the coast in Chennai, are well-positioned to basically export. I would say kind of across large diameter and the South, North, and West geographies. In all areas, we've got adequate capacity for the next two years' growth. Then in addition to that, we've ordered a new mill for a new product that we're basically gonna get into on the tube side. That mill will come on stream as well in the next financial year, towards the end of it, because it takes nine months for them to kind of get the mill to us. That will also help us on capacities in the engineering segment. On metal formed, obviously, kind of, we've got to break that down a bit. Auto chains is adequately capacitized, kind of given the current environment.
As far as railways is concerned, we continue to add capacity for various products there, we're seeing growth. There, the capacity utilization is high, we are continuing to add capacity. Fine blanking, I'd say that we have and are unleashing more capacity with productivity improvement as well. Finally, on the door frame side, right now, because I would say we've got adequate capacity across all of our products, cater to the customers we're currently serving in door frame.
Right. That's very helpful and quite encouraging as well that you've got sufficient capacity to fuel growth as and when that comes in. Sir, my next question is actually on the newer growth opportunities that we've talked about previously, the TMT bars and the truck body parts, et cetera. If you can just dwell a little more as to what are the new developments that have happened over the last three, four months? What is the size of the opportunity, and which are the customers that we are targeting?
Like I've said, right? Basically, those businesses is best because they're more like venture capital style businesses at this stage. They're not going to move either our top line or our bottom line in the near term. Right? The main question is are those businesses starting, but I don't think they're going to have any significant impact on top line or bottom line for even the next financial year. Right? If you take, for example, we've talked about this business in the optics space. That facility, we think that in the current quarter or early next quarter, we should start getting output from there. Again, in these early years, the revenue that comes from these businesses is going to be fairly small, right? I wouldn't factor that into models right now.
We have started talking about how we need to drive growth, and what we see potentially coming up, if the environment continues like this, we see opportunities for inorganic growth coming up, right? Aditya, clearly one of our advantages this stage with a stronger balance sheet is, you know, basically our net debt is down to INR 103 crore at the end of last quarter, we continue to pay down net debt. We should have a fairly strong balance sheet in the next two quarters, I would say. Potentially, we can also go debt-free. If the environment continues to be very tough, as a matter of fact, based on early discussions, we've been approached with a couple of few opportunities for inorganic growth as well. That's not an option we will rule out as a potential avenue for growth for us going forward.
Perfect, Sir. Sir, in just digging a little deeper into this inorganic opportunity. What are the key attributes that you would look for in a target, right? Would you go for a geography or would you look for a product niche or?
Yeah. We're very clear that we want to focus it on acquisitions in India only. We don't want to look for manufacturing assets that are outside of India right now. The second is that we are also very clear that we don't want to get into either auto supply, right, kind of Tier 1 or Tier 2 auto supply. Unless there's a tremendously compelling reason to do that, our preference is to move. There are some key themes that we're working on, right? One is looking at more B2C businesses or B to small B businesses versus B2B. Our current B2B businesses, our customers are much larger than we are. We'd like to look at businesses where our customers are either consumers or small businesses. That's one axis that we're looking at.
The second is that we're looking at, definitely, like I said, non-auto is the current thinking at this point in time. The second that we're clearly interested in is if people manufacture here for export markets, right? We're quite keen to grow our exports business, and we see businesses that manufacture here for export markets. We're quite keen on developing that. The third also that we've said is that we don't want to go out and pay top dollar for a business. Our preference is to acquire a business where, similar to what we've done in TI for the last two years, there's an opportunity to improve performance characteristics like PBT, free cash flow, in the inherent business itself.
Perfect, Sir. That's very useful. Thank you so much, and best of luck for the quarters to come.
Thank you. Thanks, Aditya.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shyam Sundar Sriram from Sundaram Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, Sir. Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity, Sir. Wonderful performance on the margin front, Sir. Many congratulations on that.
Thanks, Shyam. Thanks a lot.
Yeah. Yes, Sir. Just on this engineering business, you have spoken about it. If you look at on a year-on-year basis, there has been 33% decline. How would you split between the volume and the value? Any color on that? You did talk about the steel price being cut. If it will be possible to quantify, that will be helpful.
Yeah. Basically, yes, the volume drop has been significant for us. Last quarter, at the same time, was our peak quarter. Right? Basically, volume is off almost, it's close to between 25% and 27%, right, is the volume drop. We do believe that this is a combination of, because basically export volumes, domestic volumes, all got hit in the last quarter. Now, as you know, this JFM, there will be some pickup because export markets will begin to kind of get a bit better. In the last quarter, in general, it can sometimes be a down quarter for export markets, the last quarter of the calendar year. The second thing is that, even if we see a little pickup from domestic markets, we see these numbers coming back.
The second thing, obviously, there's some base effect because when you take that last quarter, the comparable quarter last year was a strong quarter versus, then is when things started to go off a bit. That's also going to change things going forward. That's just a quick take on that, Shyam.
Sure, Sir. Sir, you did talk about some market share loss. Is it on the two-wheeler side? Is that where we have lost some market share?
No, all I was saying is that we weren't dropping price, but it's not been on the two-wheeler side.
Okay.
It's not been on the tubular side. Like we said, we see some opportunities in tubular front fork because products are now I mean, in BS-VI, there are products like somebody mentioned, with the scooters, which are now adding tubular front fork. That's a good opportunity for us.
Correct, Sir. Sir, broadly on the export side, you have spoken about export being weak. Sequentially, obviously, as you mentioned, December will be weak. Any outlook on the exports? Our exports will be around 8%-9% of our consolidated sales. Are you seeing that improving going forward, either because of our actions or the market picking up? Anything on that?
Yeah. Exports, you're right, they're considered about 8%-9% of our total sales. We are seeing that it could pick up in the coming quarter. On top of that, we are also introducing certain new products, which will take some time. It won't happen immediately, but in the next 12 months period, that's another uptick which we can expect to see.
Okay. Sir, on the new products that you spoke about in engineering, that you ordered a mill also for that is on the two-wheeler side itself, Sir, or is it on the non-auto side?
It is auto, but not two-wheeler.
Okay, it's auto. Okay. Understood.
It's PV plus CV.
Okay. Understood, Sir. This will be more like a structural part, per se, in that for the vehicle?
Safety critical part.
Yeah, it's a safety critical part, and basically, it's a good opportunity for us because it exists in Actually, there we're going to take a different strategy where we're going to focus on export markets first and then bring the product to India. Initially, all the production from that mill will be exported.
Oh, okay. Understood, Sir. Sir, on the metal forming side, on the railways, I believe railways contribute roughly 25% of the metal forming. What has been the kind of growth and the opportunity that we are seeing there, Sir? We have spoken about that. Anything you can talk about on the railway side?
We were at what, 60% growth from last year on railways?
Yeah.
Yeah, we had about 60% growth from last year on railways, Shyam.
Is there a shift from some weaker players to us, Sir? Is that what is driving this?
No. Basically, we're adding new products because we are adding, for example, metro that we weren't in before. Within the railway itself, we're adding new product offerings to our current customers. It's not a shift in share, but it's basically new products that are causing.
Okay.
By the way, railways' volumes are picking up. Though our share remains the same, we're getting increase on increase in railways volumes as well.
Okay. Understood, Sir. Sir, one thing on the margin front, we have seen very good improvement in the gross margins, either we see on a sequential basis or on a year-on-year basis. Is it more because of a function of a mix that the cycles are going down? Is that one of the reasons for the gross margin improvement in that sense? Has it something got to do with the supplier changes that you have spoken about in the past? If you can comment on that, please.
No, I think the biggest drivers are some of the efficiency things that we've been working on for the past couple of years.
Okay.
That is the biggest driver of the margin.
Okay. Understood, Sir. Cycles is completely exited from the institutional business. Institutional business earlier would have been around INR 400 crores per year. Now it is completely zero. Is that how to look at it?
No, there will be a few which are left out, which are being supplied this year also. It won't be zero. Also, it wasn't to the extent of INR 400 crores last time. It was about maybe INR 250 crores-INR 300 crores.
Okay.
Yeah.
Okay. Understood, Sir. Thank you, Sir, and all the very best.
Thank you.
Thanks, Shyam. Thanks a lot.
Next question is from the line of Sreemant Dudhoria from Unifi Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, and thanks for the opportunity. Sir, firstly, on the aftermarket business, you highlighted there is a shift in the strategy and there's a lot of focus on that. What initiatives are being taken in the aftermarket segment? Is there a kind of a new product launch in the aftermarket, or there's a change in distribution? Can you please highlight, Sir, on what is happening there?
Yeah. Sreemant, good question. I think both of those things are true, which is, first off, we are significantly deepening our distribution. When we looked at the country, there was almost, I'd say, 40%- 50% of the country where we did not have deep enough distribution. We're definitely deepening our distribution, and that will continue, I'd say, over the next two years, where we will focus on getting much stronger on the distribution side. Second, yes, we started with new product launches, several new product launches, both catering to the higher end of the market, catering to higher CC bikes, and totally new products, including new types of chains that we're introducing to the market as well. All three. It's a combination of both though.
Is it possible to share which products you're launching, Sir, in the aftermarket?
No, I think I'd prefer not to at a specific level, but I think a lot of that information will be out there. If you go out to the market, you can see it.
Okay. On an absolute level, for the nine months, what's been the contribution from the aftermarket, and where do you see this number going?
Again, we don't share contribution at that level of granularity. Obviously, like you know, it's a much higher contribution for us than our OEM do.
Okay. Sure. Secondly, on the new product launch, which you talked about, the optics, I just wanted to understand a bit more on this. Is it for the automobile sector or it's a non-auto product?
Yes, it's for the auto sector, but it's 100% export. Initially, we won't focus it on the Indian market. I'd say for the first year's capacity, I'd say even the first two years' capacity is fully bought out at this stage, in the sense it's already contracted for. Definitely, is there demand for it in India? Yes. We will basically bring it to India also at the right point in time.
What kind of investment are we making to this specific product?
Initially, it's smaller. It's smaller, but basically, the way we see it is, if we can start producing this product successfully and our export customers like it, we'll start investing more into that product in the near future. Right now, it's a sub-INR 50 crore investment.
Sure, Sir. Thank you. I'll get back in the queue.
Sure.
Thank you. A reminder to the participants, anyone who wishes to ask a question, you may press star and one at this time. The next question is from the line of Abhishek Ghosh from DSP Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Hi, Goodman. Thanks for the opportunity, Sir. Just a couple of questions. In terms of the sharp revenue decline that we have seen in this division, is it also because the OEM, the channels, the auto and everybody has destocked for the BS-VI preparations, that's why the magnitude is still higher?
Sorry, Abhishek. Hi, Abhishek. Is your question saying is the magnitude of the drop higher because of destocking?
Yeah.
Okay. Definitely, I think yes. We saw a lot of production days that were basically cut. Though we didn't see it in retail sales, our belief is that production in that quarter was even worse than the sales number drop in that quarter. Right?
Okay.
That, I think is beginning to pick up a bit. I don't think it'll be as bad anymore. Whether that was in turn drove destocking, or which caused what, I'm not in a good position to comment on that.
Okay. You also mentioned that in the BS-VI now, you'll have also a lot of these products now. Will they be inherently better margin products, or would you continue to have similar margins from those BS-VI products as well?
Similar margins.
Similar margins. Lastly, while your gross margins have improved sequentially, which is a very positive sign, if I look at your margins have been constant just largely because of negative operating leverage. What I see in the metal forming division is quarter-on-quarter, your margins have declined on an EBIT level. How should one read into it? Because there you have seen some amount of revenue growth as well. How should one read into it?
Yeah. The way I look at it is there are a couple of businesses within there that got a bit more hit. Right? Predominantly our auto and our fine blanking businesses. Like I said, that is driven because of significant volume drops in those businesses. The other businesses have seen either margins being steady or margin growth. Right. If you take the chains business, industrial chains, and automotive chains, railways, all of those have grown. These two got hit, and our belief is that as some volumes begin to come back in those businesses, those margins will pick back up again.
Sure. Okay. Just last one. In terms of if you look at the free cash that you have generated, implied free cash generation for the quarter is almost about close to INR 200 odd crores. Would that be a correct number?
No, it's more than that. It's about INR 341 crores.
No, that is cumulative. For the quarter, it is around INR 178 or INR 200 or so?
One second. We'll give you that number.
If you have any other questions, ask us. We'll get that number for you.
Just one last. One more question is in terms of now we have seen a reversal in the steel prices. What was a declining one is now started to move up?
186.
Hello?
Yeah. No, sorry. He was saying it's INR 186 crores for the quarter.
Yeah. Large part of it are also driven by working capital needs because your capital depreciation is only about INR 120?
Yeah, definitely. We've been working a lot on working capital.
More than INR 100 crores.
No pun intended.
Working capital.
Oh, okay.
Yeah.
Just last one, the steel price, what we were seeing a downtrend has now reversed quite sharply, at least in the last one month or so. In terms of, you think some amount of efficiency gain that was there can go away, or you'll have to go to the customer to get your pricing reset again?
Yeah, we'll have to go to the customer for that. With a lot of our customers, that will have to be the pattern. That is the pattern we've usually followed, and that's what we will continue to follow.
Okay. Okay, Sir. Thank you so much for answering my questions, and all the best.
Thank you. Thank you so much.
The next question is from the line of Prateek Poddar from Nippon India Mutual Fund . Please go ahead.
Hi, this is Prateek Poddar from Nippon India Mutual Fund. Sorry. Just one small question. We have seen a substantial improvement in the gross margins, and you alluded to this was efficiency gain. Is it fair to say that this is sustainable and going forward, whenever growth comes back, you will look to build upon these margins? I'm talking about company as a whole.
Yeah. Sorry, Prateek. Yeah. The answer is yes, definitely. I do believe that if volume comes back, we will be able to hold on to this and gain on that.
Okay, great. Just one last clarification. Mix has nothing to do with these in the sense, in your commentary also, you talked about cycles coming back strongly next year. Would mix have an impact or this is purely efficiency gains which we have seen, and there's nothing to do with mix?
Yeah. The gains that we've seen have very little to do with mix, right? If things like cycles come back, like you know cycles has traditionally been a low margin business for us, right? If we can improve the margin on those business, that's why in my earlier commentary, I do feel confident that we will be able to deliver a better year next year than we've done this year.
Great, Sir. Thank you so much, and all the best for the future. Thank you.
Thanks, Prateek.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nemish Shah from Emkay Investment. Please go ahead.
Yes, Sir. Thanks for the opportunity. I just wanted a few data points from you. What will be the non-auto mix in the engineering segment?
About 25%.
Okay. This non-auto mix is largely large diameter tubes?
Large diameter and regular tubes also.
Okay.
We also do boiler tubes and things like that.
Okay. Apart from off-road vehicles, where else will this be used?
They use it in refineries, boilers.
Okay. In the Metal Forming Division, the mix for railways and non-auto will be this quarter?
Metal formed products.
You want percentages?
Yeah.
We want non-auto. Just give non-auto versus auto only.
It'll be about 80%.
Sorry?
We'll give you that number. We're looking at that number. We'll get it to you.
Okay.
Any other question?
No, that's it.
Okay. We'll give you that number. Just give us some minutes. We'll get back to you with that number.
Yeah.
We'll take the next question.
Thank you.
It'll be about 85% auto, 15% non-auto.
No.
Within-
For full metal formed. What is the percentage that is non-auto?
15%.
Should we move to the next question?
AC and railway.
Yeah, that's more than 15%.
If you could give railways mix as well, please.
No, we don't discuss railways specifically, but we've given non-auto.
Okay.
Yeah, it'll be about 75%-80% if you take entire metal formed products.
75%-80% will be non-auto?
Correct.
Okay.
75%, 80% is non-auto?
Yeah.
Oh, man. Hey, we'll get you that number. Sorry. We'll get you that number in a minute.
Okay.
We'll go to the next question. We'll get you that number.
Okay.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashutosh Tiwari from Equirus. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello, Sir. Sir, you talked about entry in a bigger way in the automotive chains aftermarket. Can you throw some light on aftermarket size percent? What is our current share, roughly?
Our belief is that we have auto aftermarket size for automotive chains. Do we have a sense of the share that we have? Our share is, in our estimate, about 15%, right? Yeah. Somewhere between 10% and 15%.
Market size, roughly?
Okay, we'll try and get you that number, yeah. Sorry. If we don't get it on the call, we can get it to you after this.
Sure.
What is your name again? I missed that.
Ashutosh.
Ashutosh. Okay.
It is 70%/30%, 50% total metal formed products.
No. Okay, wait. He's answering a different question. Okay.
Yes.
Yeah. To your point on the market sizing, we'll try and get you an answer. If we don't get it during the call, we'll get it to you after the call.
Sure. Also, I want to understand roughly in this aftermarket, what would be share of unorganized players, roughly?
No, if you take the unorganized guys in our segment, chains, maybe 10%, 15%. Most of it is organized.
Okay. When you talk about taking away more share, basically, the major will come from the competitors only.
That's correct.
Okay. What would be the CapEx number that you're looking for FY 2021? Also, how much we spent in this year, and what's the plan for full year?
This year, so far, we spent about INR 140 crores.
Okay.
Next year, it could be in the range of about INR 200 crores.
Out of this INR 140 crores, what would be on the new product development, roughly?
Most of it is for new products only, except the capacity expansion which we did in Rajpura.
Which was how much?
It is about this year, about INR 30 crores.
INR 110 crores is new products.
I mean, the big bids are not arrived this year, maybe in future, or next one or two years.
Yeah, that will only come in next year.
Okay. Sir, we obviously have done very well in terms of cost cutting and ROC improvement. If you look at further going ahead over the next one or two years, do you think there are still opportunities to cut costs and which will be main areas?
See, I think, like the answer to the earlier question, obviously, now we have the advantage that some of we've improved efficiencies, but our utilizations, there's still bandwidth for growth, right? Obviously, if our utilizations go up, then that will benefit our margins significantly in those businesses, right? That is the first thing. Second, now I would say that clearly, as leadership, our focus is now turning to how we deliver revenue growth. That is the bigger I mean, that's basically what we're beginning to spend more time on. Because of the four parameters that we had kind of defined earlier, that is the one that we have definitely not delivered on this year. We need to basically figure that out. We definitely see that one of the challenges in delivering it with our current business mix is the huge order dependency.
That's why I talked about some of those approaches earlier to start focusing on the revenue growth, which is now what we're moving our attention to. We started almost six, nine months ago, but it takes a little while just to do that.
Okay. Sir, in the large diameter tubes, which will be the key export market that we are looking at? What do we have currently?
Yeah. There we serve three geographies. Right now we serve Europe, China, and not U.S., but North America. Basically, some spots in Latin America.
Okay. Is China big over there, or?
China is a big export market for us, yes.
Okay. Sir, thanks a lot and all the best.
Thank you. I think to the earlier question, Mahendra had an answer. It is 70% is what?
Auto, 30% non-auto.
70% is auto and 30% is non-auto.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Preethi R.S. from UTI Investment. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning, Sir. Thanks for taking my question, and congrats on great numbers in a challenging environment. I have two questions, one on the cycles business. Last time we did talk about some asset rationalization to happen since both the plants are operating at suboptimal utilizations. Any update on that topic?
No, I think basically we said that this is something that we would evaluate over time, right? It's nothing that we've basically taken a specific call on at this point in time. We already have one facility that is not being used, which is our Nashik facility. We've not done anything beyond, nor are we committing to do anything on the specific assets within a named timeframe. Broadly, we see that we have to address the issue of low asset utilization across those two things. One of the ways we might do it, Preethi, is use some of the assets for other things as well.
Right. Got it.
New growth.
Got it. Second question is on the door frames business. I want to broadly understand who are the customers and what will be a broad market share? Because I am under the impression that some of this is actually made in-house at OEMs, or this product is actually optional in some of the models. Correct me if I am wrong.
No. Obviously, door frames are needed in all the models.
Okay.
It's only a question of how they're done, right? You can either have them roll-formed or you can have them pressed. Some customers choose to press them, in which case, obviously, we don't use our technology. Some customers choose to roll form them. Obviously, it's a required product, and if customers choose to press them, we try to convince them that our technology is better, and that takes development cycles, which we obviously focused on with some of the larger customers as well. In terms of market shares and all that, we don't discuss specific market shares with individual customers.
Do we supply to the largest OEM, Maruti?
No. Maruti press is their own press.
Okay. We are in the roll formed part of the business.
Correct.
Okay, fine. Thank you, Sir. Thanks. Good luck.
Thank you.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Aditya Bagul for closing comments.
Thank you so much, everyone, for participating on the call. Before we close the call, Mr. Vellayan, if you could just share your outlook over the near term and possibly over the next three to five years, where do you see Tube Investmens going?
Aditya, thanks. I think I alluded to some of it during the conversation itself. It's definitely tough in this market to predict where the overall market is going. The broad commentary I made is that even if we do not see the market growing next year, we feel fairly confident that we will be able to deliver better bottom-line results than we will deliver in this financial year. I think that's something that we have a good level of confidence on. That is the first comment. Obviously, over the three to five years, I continue to remain significantly bullish, both for the country and for the company. I think that there's a lot of opportunity for TI, given the mix of businesses it's in and some of the businesses that we want to get TI into in the future as well.
Growth will have to come from both organic and potentially inorganic means over that time period. Like I said, we're staying focused on a set of businesses that should hopefully reduce our dependence on the auto sector and therefore reduce some of the cyclicality that we're seeing in terms of the performance that we're delivering from year- to- year, in terms of top-line performance. Overall, our story remains intact, which is we're committed to, within three years, articulating a clear path to deliver a company that will be able to give us 17% revenue growth, move our PBT to sales to double digit. We've committed to that within a three-year period as well, and we're getting pretty close to there.
Deliver free cash flow to PAT of 85%, that will then allow us to pay down our debt and strengthen our balance sheet, and push the ROC to above 30%. That continues to be our focus, and we feel convinced that we can do that and continue to deliver an engine that does that over a three to five-year period.
Perfect, Sir. Thank you so much for taking out the time and answering all our questions. Thank you to all the participants.
Yeah. Thanks, Aditya. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.