Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Tube Investments of India Limited Q1 FY2025 earnings conference call, hosted by IIFL Securities Limited. As a reminder, all participants' lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I'll hand the conference over to Mr. Mudit Bhandari from IIFL Securities Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Neha, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the earnings conference call of Tube Investments of India for first quarter FY 25. From the management, we have Mr. Vellayan Subbiah, Executive Vice Chairman, Mr. Mukesh Ahuja, Managing Director, Mr. A.N. Meyyappan, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Sivadeep Singh Jammu, VP TPI, Mr. U. Rajagopal, Senior VP, TI Cycles, Mr. N. Govindarajan, CEO of 3xper Innoventure Limited, Mr. K.K. Paul, CEO of TICMPL, Mr. Anurag Vohra, CEO of TICMPL, and Mr. K. Gopalakrishnan, CFO of TICMPL. To start off, I'll hand over to Mr. Subbiah for opening comments, and then we'll start Q&A after that. Over to you, sir.
Thanks, Mudit, and I'll just go through. We had a board meeting on June 30. Just go through the standalone results for the quarter. Revenue for the quarter, standalone, was at INR 1,960 crore as against INR 1,780 crore for the same period previous year, and PBT was at INR 208 crore as against INR 198 crore in the same period previous year. The ROIC annualized was at 47% for the quarter, as against 56% in the same period previous year. Free cash flow for the quarter was at INR 42 crore as against INR 97 crore in the same period previous year. Quick overview on our businesses. The revenue for the quarter was at one thousand, for engineering, was at INR 1,265 crore compared with INR 1,142 crore in the corresponding quarter.
PBIT was at INR 157 crore, as against INR 135 crore in the corresponding quarter for engineering. Metal formed revenue was at INR 358 crore, compared to INR 342 crore in the corresponding quarter previous year, and PBIT was at INR 36 crore, as against INR 44 crore in the corresponding quarter previous year. Mobility, the revenue for the quarter was at INR 181 crore, compared with INR 187 crore in the corresponding quarter previous year, and PBIT was at INR 2 crore, which is in line with the corresponding quarter in the previous year. Revenue for the quarter for other businesses was at INR 247 crore, compared to INR 178 crore in corresponding quarter, and PBIT for the quarter was at INR 15 crore, as against INR 16 crore in the corresponding quarter in the previous year.
At the consolidated level, TI's consolidated revenue for the quarter was at INR 4,434 crore, as against INR 3,767 crore in the corresponding quarter. The profit for the quarter was at INR 464 crore, as against INR 396 crore in the corresponding quarter in the previous year. CG Power, in which the company has a 58% stake, registered a consolidated revenue of INR 2,228 crore, as against INR 1,874 crore in the same quarter previous year, and PBT was at INR 336 crore, as against INR 263 crore. Shanthi Gears registered a revenue of INR 139 crore as against INR 121 crore, and a profit of INR 29 crore as against INR 24 crore.
So Mudit, I'll stop with that, and we'll be happy to turn it over to the audience for questions. Good morning, we'll take questions from the audience. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handset while asking the question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of CA Garvit Goyal from Nvest Analytics Advisory LLP. Please go ahead.
Hello, am I audible?
Yes.
Good morning, sir. I have three questions. First one is on the traditional businesses. So, see, despite manufacturing activities are at their historical peak in India, if we look at the growth in our engineering, power, metal formed products, gear segment and the industrial segment, we find that except power segment, other segments are growing mainly at a single digit. So, I am not able to understand why the environment is so strong and we have the internal capabilities in the products we deliver, why the growth number is too low for us. And if it is because of the high base, then what are the new initiatives are we doing in these areas to increase our growth trajectory?
Because, even if I take our railway initiative, we should be growing tremendously well, looking at the overall industry. So, kindly put some color on it, sir.
Are you talking about, I mean, when you talked about power, are you saying you're talking at a consolidated level? Are you including CG in this discussion, or are you talking about TI?
I'm talking about consolidated numbers, sir.
... consolidated. Okay. Yeah, so I think, go ahead with your perspective on engineering, and then I'll give a broader perspective.
So if we see TI standalone perspective, basically, we've seen the quarter one, passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle, both there was a slowdown, whereas two-wheeler, maybe there was a revival back, in the quarter one. So if you see across the businesses, in standalone, our performance is maybe equal or better than the market in terms of volume as well as the sales value. However, in maybe let's say, particularly in MFPD, there was some mix issue, which is one or two quarter issue, which will get improved. But overall, the performance is in line with the market or better than market. Coming to giving a color on, maybe let's say, what are the growth verticals still available, exports is definitely opportunity.
EV, when it is picking it up, it is opening up a new areas of high-strength metal and all these things, and which we are at development stage and will be participating accordingly with that.
Sir, what about the railway initiative? Like, railway industry is doing really well, so where are we standing in this value chain?
So railway is definitely, and I think that, that is, railways obviously is under CG. So when we look at that, you know, the, the larger part of railway is under CG, and that business is definitely picking up and growing at a, at a good pace. In, in segmental data, we don't split out railways. It is part of industrial systems. But I do see good growth in that business in, in the upcoming quarters.
Sir, overall growth like, across our engineering metal formed segment, do we looking for any kind of, double digit, growth going ahead? Like, or it will be like, this single digit number only, because of high base.
We are looking for double-digit growth.
Understood, sir. Secondly, on the electric mobility: so, we were about to launch a large commercial vehicle in the month of July and August, and some electric tractor also in October. So what is the update on these products? And, how our electric three-wheeler is getting traction in north area, and, what are the number of dealers we have right now, for electric three-wheeler, sir?
Okay. I'll come, I'll go segment by segment. On the three-wheeler piece, I think we are proceeding reasonably well. You know, we have a good market share in South, and we are making inroads in North now with, you know, getting centered around the larger markets. And we are garnering around 4%-5% market share in North now, and we want to take it up in the coming months and the coming quarters. So that's as far as North is concerned. But the customers have received it well. There's a lot of work that we are doing on the ground to initiate the demand. As far as South is concerned, we are going steady there with the three-wheeler business.
In terms of the heavy commercial vehicle, we currently have one product, which is the 55-ton, 6x4, and around September, October, we should be launching the second variant in this segment, you know, which will give us, larger, which will help us to take about 20% of this TIV with these two products, and gradually then we'll be launching the other products in the third and fourth quarter. And, we are making good progress with the customers there and slowly inching up on our sales as far as that's concerned. So this broadly the answer to your, to your questions, now.
Number of dealers for electric three-wheeler?
Number of dealers for electric three-wheelers, currently, we have 17 numbers. And, you know, we are in a ramp-up phase now, and we should be having around 150 dealers by the end of this year, pan-India.
Understood, sir. And sir, lastly, on our new initiatives like lens business and medical devices, so we acquired the businesses to save time for licensing and all, and we were looking to focus on more towards the growth, right? But till now, we are not seeing anything material happening from these segments. So, why are we not very much aggressive in the terms of growth for these new businesses, provided we are having the internal capabilities and there are no such hindrances with regard to licenses?
So medical business, particularly on the revenue side, there's a good growth, even in the current quarter compared to the previous quarter, and, business is doing pretty well. At the same time, we are investing in the new product development as well as in the sales side of the story. And, this is about the future business, what we are doing it currently. And, we already announced we'll be putting a greenfield plant in Noida for, again, medical consumables. So we are bullish about this business going forward, and it will have a good growth. Coming to the numbers, what you're able to see, because of the goodwill amortization, you are not able to see those numbers, and because we are investing in the new product development, that's the difference in the bottom line.
Otherwise, revenues are in the very much on growth sets.
So, why we are amortizing the goodwill? Like, earlier, we paid higher for the acquisition, and now we are amortizing the goodwill. So what is the exact reason for it?
Hey, my suggestion is that, I mean, that we have, like, you know, two or three questions, and then you can come back in the queue, because, otherwise, you know, kind of, it'll be tough, and I don't know if the moderator can just kind of manage this somehow. Okay, but let's answer your question on goodwill and then-
Actually, no, it is not goodwill. It's intangible assets, whatever we have done, okay, that we have to, as per the Ind AS, we have to amortize over the period of time, useful life of it. Say, almost around next five years, we'll be having this amortization. It's approximately INR 4 crore per quarter will be there.
Okay, it's an intangible asset. Okay, sir. Thank you very much, and I join back the queue.
Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address the questions from all the participants, please limit your questions to two per participants. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Jinesh Gandhi from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good morning. A couple of questions from my side. One is on the core business. Can you talk about how exports are trending up now? Are we seeing full normalcy in exports? And, what kind of a growth we are seeing, and what would be the level of, level of exports in standalone business?
Good morning, Mr. Gandhi. On the export side, we are doing about 19% of the revenues are coming from the exports currently. There is a little challenge on the freight side of the maybe whatever this Red Sea numbers are happening it. Otherwise, maybe the exports is running basically.
It's 19 for the engineering division and also the core business.
Okay.
19 is for the engineering business.
Nineteen-
Overall is at 14.6%.
Okay. 14.6. Okay. And, secondly, when I look at our other segment revenue, it has been going up reasonably well. I believe this would be largely industrial chain. Has the Greenfield plant started operations yet, or that will be over and above what we are doing today?
So Greenfield plant has started already, which is in operation from last six months' time. And, we are running that plant, fully as of now. But whatever maybe momentum you see, that is also coming because of the TMT, which is a trading business we are doing it, that is also leading to this growth.
Got it. Got it. A few more questions. I will come back in queue.
Thanks, Jinesh.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Aman Soni, from Nvest Analytics Advisory LLP. Please go ahead. Mr. Aman, your line has been unmuted. Please go ahead with your question. Mr. Aman, your line has been unmuted. Please go ahead with your question. Due to no response from the current participants, we are going ahead with the next participant, which is from Rishabh Shah, from RBSA Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Hello. Yeah, hi, morning. I just want to understand, what is your aspirational market share across the EV portfolio in the medium to long term?
So, obviously, kind of that will change by segment, right? I mean, I think the broad statement-
Yeah.
We've made is that, you know, that we want to be, you know, in ideally in kind of at least two to three segments, we want to be in the top two players, right? So kind of the way we see the energy transition working is that we see that, the top, players will likely get redefined. And, you know, as more and more of the market moves to EV, we see ourselves being one of the top two players on the EV side of the business. As that kind of gains share, obviously, we'll want to maintain that share as it expands, right, the EV share as it expands. So in all of the businesses, that's our aspiration. So, we'll see how that plays out over time, but definitely that's our aspiration going into each of the businesses.
Which means that the way to think about it is like we, we would aspire to at least like a 20%-25% market share in each of the segments that we're in.
Okay. And secondly, in the heavy commercial vehicle front, what are the levers to, say, reduce the overall manufacturing cost, you know, the next 1-2 years without the benefit of higher volumes? And, how much can it come down by?
Yeah. So we think that costs can move down by significantly over the next, you know, next 1-2 years. The big drivers of movement obviously are going to be first, to indigenize a lot more, right? Because a lot of the supply chain still doesn't exist in India, and we have to develop the supply chain in India. That's an effort that is fairly, you know, strong, and we're basically very focused on indigenizing that, the supply chain. The second part is gonna be that where we buy some outsourced components, especially on the electronics and the control units, you know, over time, we will have to develop our own capability on the control units and basically in a... That will help reduce the cost significantly as well.
And then the third part obviously is that, we're gonna start packing our own batteries, and in LFP, as you know, cell prices have also begun to come down. So I think that those three combined is gonna help. And then fourth is obviously kind of over time on the mechanical components, you know, as we get some scale, we will get more leverage in order, be able to order, to reduce price. So given those four different areas, we definitely do think that there'll be an opportunity to bring prices down over time.
With all these initiatives that you've just spoken about, the cost can come down by more than 15%, at least?
Yes, we don't want to guide on what costs-
Okay.
will come down by, but obviously kind of the targets have to be significant.
Okay. Thank you, sir. All the best.
Yeah, thank you.
...Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Rohit, from Nvest Analytics Advisory LLP. Please go ahead.
Hello, am I audible?
Yeah.
Hi, thanks for the opportunity and congrats for good set of numbers. Sir, I would want to know more about this medical devices greenfield project that you are speaking about. What are you going to do there, and when you expect to manufacture some product from your greenfield project in Noida? If you can provide some color on that. And timelines as well, yeah.
Yeah. We are in the process of doing land acquisition, as you know, and it will take about one year time to go for commercial production. And we will be investing in the area of medical consumables only, because that is the field we have chosen for TI Medical, as of now. And it is expected to start commercial production by Q2 of next year.
Okay. Okay. And, what about the electronics side of your business, the lens and stuff? So have you enhanced or expanded your portfolio now, or you are still at the same stage where you did that acquisition on the lens side? So what is your strategic intention there?
As of now, maybe let's say we are in the same process of where maybe we were working with the customers for the lens, particularly approval process. Our sample got approved, and we are in the phase of how to do ramp-up. It is too early to say that, because entire material will be for export purposes. As of now, we are working, but we agree progress is a bit slow on that.
Great. Okay, that's it from my side. Thanks. Thanks.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next follow-up question is from the line of Jinesh Gandhi from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Can you talk about the e-mobility business based on a good ramp-up in revenues in 1Q? And I believe this is largely led by e-3-wheeler, so what kind of volumes are we doing here, and how it should scale up over the next nine months of this financial year?
Yeah. So, Jinesh, you're right, so kind of three-wheeler has been the larger contributor, and then the second contributor obviously is coming from IPL. So if you look at it, kind of I would say right now we're about two-thirds three-wheeler and one-third from the heavy truck is what the first quarter was. We do expect numbers to basically increase over the next few quarters significantly. So that's where we... I do believe we will see the largest ramp. We don't think we want to guide specifically now, but we definitely see opportunity to increase those numbers over the next couple of quarters.
So three-wheeler, definitely, I mean, one of the things with three-wheeler, obviously, is that it's a bit dependent on what's gonna happen with the EMPS scheme, and whether FAME III will get announced. The truck, as you know, we sell without subsidy. And so, I think the good thing, good, good news on the truck is that we have seen customers put in orders, you know, of, you know, like, like, we, we got our first order for 50 trucks, and that was a customer that had bought. So basically, customers are beginning to buy at scale, right? And so that's the basic shift. But I think that as that ramps, and that's ramping up without subsidy, that contribution will also become, more significant in our mix.
The third product that will likely contribute in the fourth quarter will be the small commercial vehicle.
Right. Right, right. And, would it be possible to share volumes of e-three-wheelers and e-trucks for the first quarter?
So, my sense is that we'll start sharing volumes by the fourth quarter, right? I don't think we want to share volumes before that. At that, around that time, we'll start sharing volume.
Okay. Okay, got it. And the second question pertains to the metal form business. So, we have seen a relatively muted revenues there, but, considering there are multiple subsegments within that, would it be possible to talk about how some of the key businesses within metal form are doing? Are there material divergences in terms of growth trajectory in some of the subsegments within metal form?
So, Mr. Gandhi, there, you know, metal formed division is dependent on the four-wheeler, which was a bit muted in the first quarter, so we feel that's a temporary issue. On the margin side, railway margins are under pressure because of the tender business, where we are participating very, very selectively. So we feel these issues are temporary, or maybe one or two time, maybe in a quarter or so, it should get resolved.
Okay. So overall, performance across subsegments were relatively in the sense, in that 3%-4% kind of a range growth?
No, no, we should be able to do it here also, like, earlier we told about double-digit growth. So because of the four-wheeler slowdown in the commercial vehicle as well as, the PV, that's why Q1 was a little lower.
Sure, sir. What I meant is, for the first quarter, most of the sub-segments were in similar trajectory, 3%-4% kind of a growth. You know, divergence in performance.
Yes, that's right.
Got it, got it. And last clarification on the truck business. You talked about we are starting to take orders, first order of 50 trucks.... So here, we will be building up order book and supplies will start happening gradually, or now we have manufacturing capacity which is ready to deliver as orders start coming in?
We have manufacturing capacity definitely for any orders that we get. So the thing right now is that. So I would say yes, we are not manufacturing capacity constrained in that business.
Got it. Got it. Cool. I'll come back to you-
Just to give you a sense, there is a slight lag sometimes due to supply chain, right? Like I said-
Yes, sure. Yeah.
Quite a few of the components have come from China. So it's not a manufacturing capacity, but sometimes supply chain can cause a little bit of a lag.
Yeah, no, that is understandable. Lastly, sorry, I'll just take this opportunity for last question. The cycle business seems to have started to stabilize. Anything to call out there? Is the decline now largely behind us, given the base is also low? Or the growth which we have seen sequentially is more to do with ramp up in exports?
Jinesh, maybe your observation is right. Maybe first was to how to contain losses and which has been done, and we are working on the exports and e-bike, which are the growth possibilities in this business, which is a work in progress, I will say, and too early to comment on that. Because, you know, exports happens with little longer cycle, and that's a work in progress.
Okay. But domestic has more stabilized or there we are still seeing decline?
Yes, we can say that, downside is stabilized.
Got it. Got it. Great. Thanks, and all the best.
Thanks, Jinesh.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Mudit Bhandari from IIFL Securities Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thank you. So my first question regarding Lotus Surgicals. So whether we have received the approval for export, particularly to Europe, and whether we have started exporting or any timelines for the same?
So, like I stated earlier, maybe we have started that export process and there are one or two countries where we already started doing exports, and a few countries we are in the process of getting approvals. So you will see momentum in another one or two quarters across exports in the Lotus Surgical business.
Okay, okay, got it. Whether this large within metal formed products division, so we plan to commission large diameter tubes capacity around mid-FY 2025. So what will be the capacity utilization after this is commissioned? As far as I remember, in previous call, it was around 85% or so.
So Mudit, just to give you a sense, large diameter is not in metal formed, that's in the engineering division, but go ahead with the answer. This capacity, maybe expansion, like we said, that maybe in H2 it will get materialized, and part of that capacity is already up and running. As of now, we can say that, after this expansion, capacity utilization will be good enough to take care of next two years' demand.
Okay.
Maybe earlier it was like you said, that it was 85%-90%, and after this expansion it will come down to 70%, which will take another 1 or 2 years to come back to those numbers of around 85%-90%.
Okay, got it. Got it. And last one from mobility business. So it has seen some traction, particularly in this quarter, both in revenues and EBIT. So any particular thing, or this will be incrementally positive from here onwards?
No. Generally, maybe you see that Q1 is always a seasonal business for mobility, and that's why you see momentum. We participated that. And, like we said earlier, maybe let's say we are working on the exports and new line of business in this area, which is a work in progress.
Okay, got it. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhishek Ghosh from DSP Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity. So just few questions. First is on the, commercial vehicle part of it. So you mentioned that you are... Hello, am I audible? Hello.
Yeah, we can hear you.
Yeah. So in terms of commercial vehicle, you've got some repeat orders. So you've mentioned that you've got large orders, so those are like kind of repeat orders, and you are very satisfied with the, performance of the vehicle? How should we look at it as far as the commercial vehicle part is concerned, sir?
Yeah. So there have been, repeat orders, and so that is the encouraging part in that business. And yes, it has been because vehicle performance has, you know, has gotten the customer satisfied enough that they are willing to buy, buy more and scale this business.
So I think definitely what we see is that there's a whole process initially in the sales cycle, where customers take, you know, between three and five vehicles, and they basically try those vehicles. So first, we go give them a trial, then they take between three and five vehicles and run those vehicles for a while. And then the next process is this process of scaling. So that's why we're quite encouraged by the fact that the first customer has basically put in a large order, and we started delivering against that as well.
Okay. So your first line of hurdle, you've kind of overcome with certain proportion of clients. You need to now extend it to a larger proportion. That's the way to look at this piece of the business?
Absolutely.
So I think two things now, we'll have to keep seeding the 3- 5 in more and more customers. So it's building the funnel, right? So think of it as three stages. First is they take trials, then the second is they buy 3- 5, then the third is that they expand. So the encouraging thing is that now we're seeing people go to that third phase. You know, and that, that's quite encouraging for us, right? So obviously, we're continuing to do both, right? We need to get a lot more in the 3- 5 category as well, right? Because that's what will convert later.
Absolutely. Absolutely. On the supply side, you'll also have to create that ecosystem around, so that if that 3-5 conversion happens to a 40, 50, you are able to also supply that. That is something you'll have to also work on.
So that's the biggest thing, right? So that's why I'm saying on the supply chain side, like I said, there are three or four initiatives. One is, you know, which is to begin to indigenize components that are basically, you know, currently not made in the country. Because if we have vendors around us, that's obviously kind of reducing our lead times in the supply chain. The second is what we'll call design ins, right? Which is we want to start designing some of these components. That's a bit longer term, right?
Mm-hmm.
But I think, and then third, like I said, like with battery, setting up our own packing plant, then, you know, and that's getting set up in Manesar, you know, and that's co-located with the factory, with the assembly line as well. So all of these things will then start reducing our supply chain lead times, right?
Got it. Thanks. So the other thing is, you know, also, if you just broadly see your engineering capabilities are very, very credible, and what we are seeing along the country is because of multiple things, because of China plus one, there is a lot of opportunity which is coming on the engineering part of it. So are there new sectors which are also opening up for you? Anything more from a three to five-year period for you? Because exports is something that you have built around the last five years. But even from the domestic perspective, you think, are there opportunities into various sectors that are coming up for you on the engineering side?
So it's broadly an area that we continue to explore. And I think that you know, if, if anything do materialize, obviously it's, it's things that we will kind of bring to you. But broadly, we're in, we're in agreement with that thesis, right? That there's a lot of opportunity. What we wanna stay focused on are businesses that are going to be much more growth oriented in India, right? And then being able to use that Indian base to, once you've established a base in India, being able to kind of take that product to more global clients, right? And so some of these are capability sets that already exist.
But when you look at this China plus one view, we're also continuing to look at things that may not exist in India, right, in terms of capability sets, and then saying, how do we leverage those? Because I think that is what's going to offer more growth opportunity and be more protected for a longer period of time. Okay. I don't know. Hopefully, that answers your question.
Yes.
Just going back to your earlier point, earlier point on the heavy trucks, the encouraging thing is that it's not just kind of the vehicle performance, but basically it's the economics as well, right? Which is the customers that have begun to deploy, have basically begun to see, at least a 10%-15% reduction in overall logistics costs, right?
Mm-hmm.
And so in some industries, that's a very significant number, right? So when you begin to look at the cement industry, the steel industry, which is where kind of, you know, quite a few of our initial customers are. So the 50 truck order was from a steel customer. But now we're seeing progress in the cement side as well. And when you start getting to, you know, 10%-15% plus reductions in logistics costs for that segment, that's a huge number, right? And kind of it moves the needle significantly for them. So that's where we're seeing a lot of interest and basically, you know, and therefore, we're seeing that beginning to play out significantly as well.
Great, sir. Sir, I have one last question. Is it okay if I go ahead?
Yeah, please.
Yeah. Sir, on the railways part of it, in terms of your capability, both as tube and as a group, is fairly high now with CG Power, and we are seeing a lot of traction in terms of the increase in railway CapEx and other things. Some of the performance has been muted. We've been speaking about a lot of tenders coming out, but that has not kind of gotten reflected. How should we look at this piece over the next three to five years, sir?
So CG's, on the CG side, is definitely going to start scaling, right? The thing that we've announced there publicly is that we've bought, you know, a majority in a company called GG Tronics, okay? And there, that basically gives us opportunities to participate in Kavach. You're probably familiar with this train collision avoidance system. That's gonna be one of the larger areas of focus for the railways in the coming years. And those tenders will start coming out. So like you know, what takes time to ramp, obviously, is that you go through a tender process. So those tenders will likely start coming out in the October timeframe, which means some implementation will start this financial year itself, is the general sense that I get.
But there, you know, I think what we're also doing is bulking up significantly on our engineering capability. So what we'll start seeing is that as Train 18 or Vande Bharat basically starts picking up and ramping, which I think is gonna start happening, you know, towards the end of this year and then kind of next year. Between that, you know, and kind of Kavach and the regular business on both traction and propulsion, I think we will start seeing those numbers increase towards the second half of this year and then into next year. And I definitely see in the three- to five-year period, that is gonna be a huge growth area for us.
Great, sir. Thank you so much for answering, and wish you all the best. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address the questions from all the participants, please limit your questions to two per participants. I repeat, please limit your questions to two per participant. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashok from Sundaram Mutual Funds. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. So my question is on the core businesses, which is engineering and metal form. We aspire to grow double digit. So what, what gives us that confidence, sir? Like, can you tie it up with the base industry growth, let's say, assuming a CV and a PV slot softness? So, from that angle, how are we thinking about this double-digit growth?
So basically, growth will be driver of two, three functions. One is, you see, construction, non-auto is really, there's a good growth happening in the country. We wish to participate that, that is number one. Coming to number two, when in EV, particularly battery weight and all those things, is becoming very, very heavy, and there is a huge pressure on the OEMs to reduce the weight of those components, where we have a good metallurgical as well as engineering strength, we want to participate. That will be the second. And third will be exports. Maybe if you see at a global level, we hardly have any market share, and whatever we enjoy, good market share in our metal formed as well as tubes, same thing can be leveraged at the global markets.
Got it, sir. Sir, if you just give color on how much is the proportion of CV in metal form right now?
CV, we don't maybe measure it internally as-
No, but you're saying CV, is it?
CV, commercial.
Relatively small, right?
It's very, very small.
It'll probably be less than 5%, huh?
No, I mean, I am just coming from the earlier answer, where CVs kind of slowed down and that impacted metal formed growth for the quarter.
He said PV.
PV.
Okay. Okay. So how much is that right now for us?
Should be, around almost 50% of the business.
Okay. Understood, sir. Those were my two questions. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sundar, from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. My question is slightly broad-based here. It is largely about what is the game plan that we have for TI-2 and TI-3 initiatives. I know a lot of these initiatives have taken a kind of a backstep in the last about 12-18 months. I understand we're consolidating. So where are we in that process, and which segment should we look forward to in terms of a TI-2 or a TI-3 exploration?
Yeah. So if you think of it, you know, of, in terms of, focus areas, right? Like I've always said, with TI-2, they'll have a different kind of rate of burn, right? See, TI-3 is kind of a bit of a binary answer, right? Which is, it kind of really depends on whether a market opportunity, you know, offers itself up. And what I usually see is in, in markets like this, where everything is kind of very richly valued, there's not a huge opportunity for value buys, right? And like, you know, with TI-3, we're very focused on value buys. So I don't see this environment offering up kind of those opportunities. If it obviously, if there is a slightly distressed deal that comes up, then we will look at it. But obviously, I don't see this as the environment for that.
If you take TI-2, right, kind of clearly our number one bet, our largest bet, has been on electric vehicle. That will continue to be the one area that I do think, you know, you'll slowly begin to see kind of, you know, a scale develop. It will take. I mean, over the next 18 months, I definitely do see some scale beginning to develop in that area. Right. So if you were to look at kind of, so TI-2 is the area that we might kind of add, you know, one more segment. Kind of, I think the segments in which we've invested in any significant scale have been, you know, the will be medical devices and CDMO, right?
So medical devices, like, Mukesh mentioned, we're beginning to witness at least like 25% organic growth, you know, on what we've acquired. And I would actually say it's tending even more towards like a 30% number. So the good thing there is, you know, kind of an acquisition path will continue, and we are seeing at least 25%-30% organic growth, and there we're adding one greenfield unit. So that's the plan for TI medical devices. CDMO, 3xper, like you know, it's a business that takes a long time to build, right?
And that's why I don't like kind of providing any guidance on that business, because honestly, that business is something that we're saying, we're totally comfortable, even if it takes like, you know, five or six years to kind of build, right? While there will be kind of, you know, pressure and focus on the team on near-term performance, it's not something that basically, you know, I think will contribute materially to the, to those numbers in the early days, right? But I feel very comfortable with the way that business is scaling out. The where we have had challenges has been on kind of the whole electronics area, between kind of lens and camera modules, where we are basically seeing that the supply chain is significantly controlled by China.
The ability to kind of break into the Chinese supply chain, I think, is something that honestly, we are kind of struggling to do, right? So that's one area where I would say kind of, you know, so as far as we're concerned, kind of the jury is still out. We continue to put significant efforts towards that business, but that's a challenge we're finding there. And as far as TII is concerned in terms of new areas, it's something that we are continuing to explore. We have identified one area in which we will take some action, which we think is a good growth segment, again, for the long term.
And again, our approach in that segment will again be, you know, acquisitive to start with, and then building up a base in that segment. So I think with these four segments, one of which is kind of, one of which the jury... So it's basically four plus one, and one of which the jury is still out on as to whether we can scale well in that business or not. I don't know if that gives you a good-
No, no, very, very detailed one, Subbiah, what I wanted. Just one other point to add to this is that in terms of capital allocation. So out of the cash flows that we're going to generate out of the standalone business, are we going to invest more in terms of TI CMPL? Would, would the cash in books, INR 3,000 crore at this range, would it be suffice enough? Or where are we looking to put that money? Are we going to invest further in terms of Lotus or 3xper? So what's the thought process in terms of capital allocation from there on, sir?
Absolutely, right. So that's a great question. So like, you just think about this, right? So kind of that's why I articulated the segments as I did. So the first thing is that we've taken any capital needs off TI CMPL off the table, right? So just to give you a sense, in TI Clean Mobility, you know, the, we... So now, just give me one second. Yeah, so basically we are, we will, we, we've raised a total of INR 3,000 crore, of which, you know, kind of over half of it is still in the bank, right? After all the factories are built out, and so that is the largest part of the CapEx, is factory build-out and tuning, right?
And the second, and so after all the factories are built out, we will still have a significant amount of that portion in the bank, right? So kind of in excess of INR 1,000 crores, more like, likely, like, you know, INR 1,100+ crores in the bank after everything is built out, right? So that gives us significant runway in that business. And so as we foresee it, we will not need more capital from TI's Free Cash Flow in the TI Clean Mobility business. The only reason we might invest is if kind of the, if the business is just kind of growing brilliantly and we basically see, you know, an opportunity to scale much faster. But for this set of growth, TI Clean Mobility is adequately capitalized, right?
So capital allocation then, like I said, the jury is still out on this electronics business. So whilst that's the phase, we're not gonna kind of allocate right now large slugs of capital to it till it's able to prove itself out. So capital allocation is going to go, 3xper's capital is known. It's a slower burn in the early days. It'll likely consume about INR 100-150 crores. 100 crores a year in the early days, and then kind of scale up, because even there, once we build out the pilot plant, kind of, and the full commercial plant, that capital allocation is known. So majority of capital allocation will go towards TI Medical and any new sectors that we identify, of which we've identified one right now.
Honestly, I think with this one sector we've identified, we will probably hold and not add any sectors after that, unless we find, again, something that is like, you know, like an incredibly good opportunity. So that should give you a sense on the capital allocation side as to where it's gonna get allocated. Because now the focus is to take these, you know. If we have four good segments that we can scale, I think that, that in itself is a good thing. That's the way I look at it.
Thank you, Subbiah. Just last one to add, should I presume that the new opportunity that we're looking at will be much larger in terms of investment size when compared to what we've done on medical or 3xper?
You know, each of them has the potential to grow larger, right? But like I said, kind of the way we see kind of getting into it is, first, you've got to get to that, you've got to prove the scale, right?
Right.
So now, is the comfort going up with medical devices? I mean, it's only because we are seeing the capability to grow the business organically. Once we make an inorganic move, we have to be able to grow the business organically, at least at that 25%-30% growth rate, right? Otherwise, it's not worth it, right? So we need to basically look at it from that perspective and say that, you know, first, let the business prove itself, right? But all the businesses we're looking at, right, whether you talk about CDMO, whether you talk about medical devices, whether you talk about, you know, EV, or whether you talk about the new segment we're looking at, all of them are businesses that can consume large slugs of capital.
What gives us the confidence to consume that large slug of capital is first being able to see that we can deliver on what we do inorganically, right? So we don't want to go and double down on it before we feel that level of confidence internally.
Perfect, sir. Thank you, and all the best sir.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vipul Kumar Shah from Sumangal Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. So my question is: as we scale our electric business, which is showing very promising results, so what type of EBITDA losses we should expect in the initial phase as we scale the business?
Sorry, sir, I don't think we heard what business you were talking about.
EV.
EV.
Electric vehicles business.
Yeah, so EV, we don't want to guide on kind of EBITDA level guidance at this point in time, right? Because there's the different kind of sets of this thing. Obviously, the one thing that we're very focused on, and you can see this, right?
Yeah.
Yeah. The thing we're focused on is that we will be very efficient with our capital, right? Our intent is not to kind of burn up. The reason why we're saying that is you can see how far we are taking just the capital we've raised itself, right? We've built out four factories, launching four products. Product development is done, you know, acquisitions where they need to have been done are done. So, we're gonna be very conscious from a capital allocation perspective. And at this stage, I'm fairly confident that just with this, we should be able to reach, you know, just with the cash in hand, we will be able to reach positive EBITDA levels.
Hello, Vipul Kumar, are you there? Due to no response, we'll go ahead with the next question. Ladies and gentlemen, you may press star and one to ask a question. As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Yeah. Thank you. I think, you know, the broad commentary is, you know, especially in electric vehicles and some of the new segments, I mean, electric vehicles will continue to be quite bullish. And, you know, I think, I think your comments are kind of well taken. We'll take that in input as we go forward. Thank you.
Thank you.
On behalf of IIFL Securities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.