Vedanta Aluminium Metal Limited (NSE:VAML)
396.75
-4.30 (-1.07%)
Oct 7, 2026, 2:30 PM IST
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Investor update
May 22, 2026
Summary
Aluminium plans to reach 3 MTPA by FY 2028 and projects EBITDA of $5.8 billion by FY 2029 at current pricing. Across the demerged businesses, expansion plans support a target of over $9 billion consolidated EBITDA in FY 2027.
Hello everyone, and on behalf of Team Vedanta, I extend you a very warm welcome to this investor meet. Over the next 90 minutes or so, we will be sharing our perspective on the five pure plays resulting from the demerger of Vedanta Limited. The shareholders of Vedanta Limited, as of the record date, have already received the share of four new companies. The listing process of these entities is progressing well, and we are hopeful of the listings to conclude in June, following which the trading will commence in these stocks. Each of the entities will have its own board, management team, and will operate independently while continuing to benefit from the synergies of Vedanta Group. We will begin today's session with opening remarks from our chairman, Shri Anil Agarwal, who will share his vision for Vedanta 2.0, the new phase in Vedanta's growth journey.
This will be followed by presentations from the leaders of five companies outlining the growth roadmap for their respective entities. Towards the end, I will summarize our capital allocation policy and our targeted earnings for FY 2027 at a consolidated level. On this call, I am joined by the CEOs and CFOs of all demerged companies. The speakers on today's call include Mr. Arun Misra, our Executive Director, Vedanta Limited, Mr. Anup Agarwal, CFO, Vedanta Aluminium, Mr. Jim Gast, CEO, Vedanta Oil & Gas, Mr. Rajinder Singh, CEO, Vedanta Power, Mr. Naveen Jaju, CFO, Vedanta Iron & Steel, and myself, Charanjit. Without taking any more time, I will now hand over the call to our chairman for sharing his perspective on Vedanta's next phase of growth. Over to you, sir.
Thank you very much for joining today. It is my pleasure to tell you about Vedanta demerge story and the plan. We have closed with the EBITDA of more than $6 billion. We were the highest dividend-paying company in India, and I want to tell you about our exciting journey going forward for demerge Vedanta. We are very happy and excited that we have undertaken Vedanta demerger in five different independent identity. Each of our business has a growth of double digit. Today, we produce copper, aluminium, zinc, silver, nickel, also on the energy sector, power, oil, and gas. These are very important for a country like India for growth. I am very proud the asset what we have. I am very proud the management what we have. I am also very proud that technology and AI, what we use producing this asset.
We are also very conscious about our shareholder return, as I mentioned about the dividend, and I have a feel it is an international business. As internationally, we will be valued very well. Aluminium is a futuristic metal. It is a green metal. India has one of the largest bauxite reserve as a raw material and huge consumption. The growth is double digit. We are producing close to 30 lakh ton of aluminium, which is the largest capacity in India. Our expansion is on the way to double that capacity to become a 60 lakh ton. For our 30 lakh ton of expansion, we got one of the largest and the best bauxite mine acquired. Aluminium plant is driven by women force. We have purposely did this. 35% of the company smelter refinery run by the best of women engineer also.
Hydrocarbon, upstream oil and gas business, a very important business for us and for India. We acquired Cairn in 2009 at $14.6 billion. After that, we have added asset after asset. Northeast, we have 10 big block. We have acquired gas field. Gas was not produced by them. Shallow water, we have 11 platform. We have one of the best terminal and the potential in complete in Rajasthan, in south, everywhere. I estimate we have a potential of resources of 5 billion barrel of oil and gas, and I'm looking forward as my vision to produce a million barrel. We are talking to everybody in the world, and everybody is very excited to be partnered with us, join us, work with us to achieve this goal. Cairn is the only oil and gas producer in private sector in India.
Government has come along where they are very liberal policy they are announcing, where long-term lease, self-certification, reducing the duties. This will enable us to accelerate our project faster. I'm looking forward. Nothing is more important for us to explore the full potential of the asset what we have. We are debt-free company. We are looking to invest $5 billion, which a lot will be self-generated to take this capacity forward. I'm very proud that we have one of the best management technical skill in our company. Our people are the best asset for our oil and gas. There is very few company in the world where you have deep water. We have a license and the block in the deep water, one of the best deep water asset. We have a shallow water, we have tight oil, we have a shale, we have a gas.
Northeast, which was one of the five basin in the world. We have 10 block in that. We have RJ North, we have RJ South, we have a satellite field. This kind of asset altogether, we are very excited and to work together with the best of technical partner to take out the full potential of our CAPEX. This is a great advantage we have. We also have sweet crude. That also great advantage, and it is a premium crude. We have a 600-mile pipeline from Rajasthan to the shore, heated pipeline to transport our oil and gas to the shore. We acquired Cairn in 2011 at $14.6 billion. This was a listed company, and we didn't pay any premium. On the market price, we acquired that company. After that, three times more asset has been acquired, and we are working with the government together to explore and produce.
We are expecting around 5 billion barrel resources on the ground. Today, technology has changed, and we will deploy the world best technology possible and the fastest to explore and produce. We have very strong power company, which will be independent. We have at the moment producing 4.2 gigawatt power. We have undertaken to produce 12,000 megawatt power. Vedanta is a flagship company. We produce largest zinc in the world. Our South African deposit is one of the best deposit and the largest deposit. We produce copper, zinc, silver. We also very excited about our critical metal. We produce ferrochrome. We produce manganese. We are the only producer of manganese in India, which has a very high demand. All the critical metal. For us, very focused on the critical metal. Our EBITDA in the near term would be about $5 billion.
We are also very pleased that we are setting up our copper business in Saudi Arabia, for copper production will start sometime in this year. We are also acquiring a large mine to support our copper production in Saudi Arabia. All our five business, a very strong pillar, is a future business. Now, you will hear from all the management of the company. Please hear them carefully. I am very proud that we have a management like this, and they will take you through their future plan, detail about how they are going to run the business. Once again, thank you very much. Wish all of you very best. Thank you.
Thank you, Chairman, for this exciting vision for Vedanta 2.0. You continue to be the driving force and a source of inspiration for all of us at Vedanta. With this, I now invite Arun Ji for his perspective on demerged Vedanta. Over to you, Arun Ji.
Thank you, Charanjit, and welcome you to this session. Very good day to all of you. We are here to present the Vedanta Limited story, a business that many of you know well, but one that is entering a new and exciting chapter following the demerger of four of our businesses. Our ambition is reaching $5 billion in EBITDA by FY 2030. That is nearly double where we are today, and we want to achieve the size of pre-demerger Vedanta Limited in next four to five years. We have a highly focused base metal portfolio, including zinc, silver, copper, ferrochrome, and nickel. We believe we have the appropriate structure in place to achieve our targets. If you look at the structure, Vedanta Limited's key businesses post-demerger are Hindustan Zinc, which is world's largest integrated zinc producer and among top 10 silver producers globally.
Second, Vedanta Zinc International, which holds some of world's largest zinc deposits in South Africa and Namibia. Third, our copper business, which spans across India and Middle East. And fourth, our ferrochrome business, FACOR. And then the fifth, Nicomet, India's only nickel producer. Starting with zinc, our flagship asset, the demand environment for zinc is robust. Indian zinc demand is directly correlated with domestic steel production as a critical input, which is expected to show strong growth in the coming years, thanks to India's growth story. At the global level, the energy transition is a powerful structural tailwind. Zinc is a critical raw material in renewable energy components, further expanding the market.
Hindustan Zinc in this market is the world's largest integrated zinc and India's only zinc producer with a domestic market share of 74% as of FY 2026. We are more than twice the size of our nearest global peer by production. Our Rampura Agucha mine is the world's largest underground zinc mine. We hold the world's second-largest zinc and lead reserves and resources with a mine life of over 25 years. To add to the scale, we are also among the lowest cost zinc producers globally. Silver is a part of Hindustan Zinc's growth story, contributing significantly to our growth and profitability. Our silver production has grown over 20 times in two decades, taking us from 23rd position globally to current eighth position globally. Silver contributes to 45% of our EBIT. With silver prices at current elevated levels, we are uniquely positioned to capture this price upcycle.
Our facilities are integrated and end-to-end throughout our six mines, three smelter complexes totaling to 1.1 million tonne with captive power generation, 273.5 megawatt of renewable power and self-refining of about 800 tonnes, silver refining of about 800 tonnes per annum. Hindustan Zinc has a growth plan of growing by 2X and this is anchored by two near-term projects, the 250,000 tonnes per annum Debari smelter expansion targeted for completion by quarter 2 of FY 2029 and the tailings reprocessing plant at Rampura Agucha, targeted for quarter 4 of FY 2028. We have partnered with universities globally to drive operational efficiencies and position Hindustan Zinc at the frontier of next generation metal technology. Our volumes, we are targeting a meaningful step up in refined metal production by FY 2030 to 1.4 million tonne per annum, driven by the capacity expansion projects.
Our EBITDA at current spot prices, price assumptions of zinc and silver prices, we aim to achieve $4.2 billion by FY 2030. This creates a clear and credible earning growth path, which is driven by volume ramp-up and cost reduction. On ESG, HZL has been ranked first in S&P Global's Corporate Sustainability Assessment for the third consecutive year, achieving the highest score ever by any metals and mining company globally. We are first Indian company to join ICMM, the global gold standard for responsible mining, putting India on the global map of sustainability-driven growth in mining. Moving to our international zinc assets. Vedanta Zinc International holds three world-class assets clusters across South Africa and Namibia with combined reserves and resources that gives us more than 25 years of mine life.
Gamsberg has the potential to produce up to 1 million tonne per annum of metal in concentrate, which highlights the scale of our international operations. In FY 2027, we are awarding three mine development contracts, two EPC contracts for 500,000 tonnes per annum smelter, demonstrating significant progress towards capacity expansion. In next three years, we plan to ramp up our annual production to about 800,000 tonnes per annum of MIC. Scaling operations to monetize the largest zinc deposits. This underscoring the expansion projects, we project our volumes to grow more than twofold by FY 2030 and costs declining significantly to place Vedanta Zinc International firmly in the top quartile globally. We aim to grow our EBITDA exponentially from current $288 million in FY 2027 to over $1 billion by FY 2030 at conservative price assumptions, strongly emphasizing our value creation potential. Moving to copper. Copper in India is fast-growing market.
India's refined copper consumption is expected to nearly double to 2 million tonnes per annum by 2035, leaving a supply deficit against domestic production. Demand in GCC is expected to increase by 60% by 2035. We are building our copper business to serve these fast-growing markets at a scale. Our copper business spans across India and Middle East. The portfolio includes Silvassa, Tuticorin, Fujairah, and a 400,000 tonnes per annum greenfield smelter in Saudi Arabia. Together, these give us a 1 million tonne per annum target capacity split equally between India and Middle East. We also have gold reserve at Fujairah, providing diversification to precious metals. We are making significant progress in reaching our target of 1 million tonne per annum through our expansion initiatives in Saudi Arabia, rod mill, mine, smelter, and a tank house expansion in Silvassa.
Given our expansion initiatives as outlined earlier, we project volumes to grow to over 700,000 tonnes by FY 2030. EBITDA is projected to grow to close to $300 million at a CAGR of almost 50%. The Saudi Arabia projects are the transformational addition that drives the step change from FY 2029 onwards. Moving to ferrochrome, 85%-90% of ferrochrome is consumed in stainless steel. India's stainless steel production is expected to grow at one of the fastest rates globally in the next five years, with ferrochrome demand following it. Currently, half of the domestic production is exported, meaning the global demand for ferrochrome is also large and growing. FACOR's target of 500,000 tonnes per annum by FY 2030 would give us a 31% domestic production share, enabling us to become a close second largest player in India.
Our plant is strategically located within 100 kilometers of our captive chrome ore mines and in close proximity of key export ports. We are transforming FACOR from a 145,000 tonnes per annum operation to a fully integrated 500,000 tonnes per annum business, commensurately growing our ROM capacity and processing capacity. We are also expanding our power capacity to include renewable energy alongside our existing thermal power plants. Our strategy involves diversification across domestic 37% target market share and international export markets, POSCO Korea long-term contract, and target entry into Chinese and Japanese market. Additionally, we plan to focus on key value-added products for expansion into European and U.S. markets. Volumes projected to grow almost five-fold to 500,000 tonnes per annum by FY 2029, with EBITDA growing approximately nine times from FY 2026 of $182 million, driven by capacity ramp-up and high integration. Nickel is another growth engine in our base metal portfolio.
India's nickel demand is expected to show a robust growth in the coming years, yet supply is only 3,000 tonnes per annum. We are the only nickel producer in India, which gives us a significant value. Our expansion projects at Gujarat will take our capacity to 60,000 tonnes per annum by FY 2030. As we scale our capacity, EBITDA is expected to increase from a break even to $200 million approximately, becoming a meaningful earning contributor over four years in a market with virtually no domestic competition. As outlined earlier, for each business, the CAPEX program underpinning our growth is well advanced and operating cash flow generating in the near term. Larger medium-term projects are expected to be largely funded through internal accruals only. The EBITDA growth overview brings the Vedanta Limited story together.
Even on conservative basis price assumptions, consolidated EBITDA is projected to grow to over $5 billion by FY 2030, an impressive 18% CAGR. We also have critical mineral blocks, and this critical mineral procurement has become a national strategic priority. Vedanta Limited and Hindustan Zinc together hold composite licenses for 10 critical mineral blocks across India. Exploration is already underway at five blocks, including two copper blocks in Maharashtra. This portfolio positions us as a future leader in India's critical mineral sector and represents significant option value. In conclusion and to summarize, Vedanta Limited offers investors access to a leading diversified base metals platform with additional exposure to silver and critical minerals. We hold leadership positions and are scaling aggressively across every business.
Hindustan Zinc is already among the lowest cost zinc producer globally, and Vedanta Zinc International is targeting top quartile cost perform position as it scales, which is a result of successive investment in integration, scale, and operational discipline. We have a strong resource base with 25 years consolidated R&R life across zinc, ferrochrome, and copper. This underpins the long-term sustainability of our cost and earning trajectory. Putting it all together, our EBITDA is projected to nearly double from $2.65 billion in FY 2026 to $5 billion by FY 2030 at an impressive 18% CAGR. Every business is contributing to this growth. With this, I hand over to Mr. Anup Agarwal for Vedanta Aluminium story.
Thank you, Arun Ji, and good day everyone. We are excited to take you through the Vedanta Aluminium story, India's largest and among the world's most cost competitive aluminum producers. In the upcoming slides, we will give you a comprehensive view of our integrated operations, cost leadership, raw material security, growth roadmap, and our commitment to sustainability. Looking at structure, Vedanta Aluminium Metal Limited, also referred to as VAML, will hold Vedanta's aluminum business, comprising of alumina refining operations at Lanjigarh, aluminum smelting operations at Jharsuguda and BALCO, and associated captive power and other assets. The business would reach 3 MTPA aluminum capacity by end of FY 2028, from current 2.5 MTPA. Covering our value proposition, we are looking to increase our capacities across mines, refinery, smelter, and value-added product.
We operate the world's largest single location smelter at Jharsuguda with a capacity of 1.85 MTPA, alongside BALCO, with a post-expansion capacity of 1 MTPA. With current ongoing aluminum capacity expansion to 3 MTPA by FY 2028, we aim to become the world's third largest aluminum player, ex China. We are a fully integrated end-to-end player. On the upstream side, we have captive coal, bauxite, power plants, and alumina refineries. On downstream side, our value-added capacity currently stands at 70%. Our plants are very strategically located, which gives us a big advantage from a cost perspective. While we've already delivered the shift towards first quartile of the global cost curve, we are targeting to reduce our costs even further and enter the top decile within this year.
All our initiatives with respect to capacity expansion, deeper integration, shift to higher VAP mix, and strong presence in India market are likely to contribute towards doubling EBITDA in three years from current $2.9 billion. ESG continues to be an important aspect for us. In 2022, we commenced production of low-carbon aluminium, which was the first by any Indian company. Covering our integrated business model, as mentioned earlier, we have a fully end-to-end integrated business model with access to captive coal mines, bauxite, and captive power. Through our 5 MTPA Lanjigarh facility, we are self-sufficient from an alumina refining capacity perspective. On downstream front, our value-added product mix has increased historically, and we are focused on increasing our capacity to 90% from current 70%. We have a very strategically located asset base. Our mines are at a radius of 50 to about 100 kilometer from our plants.
We are also in proximity to key ports in Eastern India, so offtake is not a bottleneck for us. Strategic location of our plants, combined with a high level of integration, gives us major cost leverage. Covering our captive mines' potential, we are looking to increase our bauxite and coal volume security. While we are currently targeting a 9 million tons per annum production capacity from Sijimali Bauxite Mine, it can be further expanded by an additional 3 million tons per annum. Our coal mines currently have a captive capacity of 2.6 million tons per annum, with Jamkhani being only operational. With commissioning of the other coal mines over few years, we aim to reach a total coal capacity of 40 MTPA. As you can see, our reserves both for bauxite and coal are sufficient for over 25 years, even at expanded capacity numbers.
Apart from long-term raw material security, these resources also help us maintain a low cost base. As we mentioned at the beginning of the presentation, we are currently undergoing capacity expansion in phases to reach 3 million tons per annum. This should be completed by FY 2028, helping us become the third largest player in the world, ex China. Given the Chinese restrictions around additional capacity, a higher scale would give us considerable strategic advantage. From alumina capacity perspective too, at 5 MTPA, we are the largest domestic player in India and the second largest internationally, ex China. Now covering operational excellence. Vedanta Aluminium has successfully and continuously demonstrated its operational excellence, and the proof of that is our production volumes consistently going up year-on-year on one hand, and the production cost declining gradually over the years.
As you can see from the chart, in the last three years, our production has gone up 7% to 2.46 million tons per annum in FY 2026, and our costs have reduced 25% to $1,750 per ton in FY 2026. The focus of the management continues to be on improving production and declining costs. We are projecting an increase in volume by 22% and a further reduction in cost by 14%. During the chart, our aim is to set the global cost standard in the industry. Our high level of integration, scale, and laser focus on improving efficiency has resulted in Vedanta Aluminium achieving the top quartile position in terms of the global aluminium cost curve. In fact, we are on target to reach the top decile position this financial year, post completion of our integration project.
Going forward with additional scale as capacities ramp up, we will continue to improve on the cost front. On integration, as is evident in the data, our focus has been to deepen our level of integration as we continue to grow in scale. On execution front, we have successfully ramped up capacities until now. Going forward, we are looking at even more expansions to become a formidable player in the aluminium space. Post the expansions, we expect to see volumes ramp up gradually to reach 3 MTPA by FY 2029. On the cost front, given all our initiatives, we are expecting hot metal to gradually come down to around $1,550 to $1,600 per ton levels. We expect a combination of larger scale and lower cost would allow us deliver more than 1.5 times growth in EBITDA by FY 2029 from current FY 2026 levels, and that too at a very conservative price assumptions.
Coming to project CAPEX, Vedanta Aluminium CAPEX strategy has been ensuring high returns for every dollar that we spend, backed by a disciplined CAPEX plan. As you can see in the chart, nearly 70% of the approved CAPEX for the upcoming expansion has been spent as of FY 2026. Coal and bauxite mine expansions form major part of the pending CAPEX, with majority expected to be completed in FY 2027, and this expenditure would be met through internal accruals. Aluminium is one of the most important metals for the modern world. Its high usage across sunrise sectors, including aerospace, defense, EVs, data centers, cables, make it one of the most widely traded metal in the world by volume. While China continues to be a significant player impacting the global aluminium market, India is expected to be one of the fastest growing, with a CAGR of +7% between 2025 and 2030.
From a sectoral perspective, while electrical and transportation sector are the largest consumer of aluminium today, future growth is expected to be led by electrical engineering goods. With Middle East crisis, we have seen some capacities in the Middle East going into temporary shutdowns. As you may be aware, the restarts time for these facilities can vary anywhere between a quarter to a year to come back online. This does not take into account the drastically reduced sales from the Middle East as there is practically no trade. Further, there has been some downward pressure on bauxite and alumina, as suppliers from Australia have not been able to supply to Middle East players. With all these, and given our high level of integration means we are largely unscathed from a raw material perspective, but on the sales realization, we have seen aluminium prices trend higher and higher.
On top of supply tightness from the Middle East, you are aware the Chinese government in 2017 imposed a hard cap of 45 million tons per annum on primary aluminium capacity. Key point to note is that China is already operating at or near this ceiling. This is important from global markets perspective, as it effectively tightens the global aluminium markets and supports prices. Covering domestic demand potential. India's per capita consumption of aluminium of 3.7 kg is far below the global average of 12 kg. A very clear sign of under-penetration. This means there is massive headroom for multi-decadal growth in the country. India is expected to be one of the fastest growing markets, with an expected CAGR of more than 7% between calendar year 2025 and calendar year 2030.
As can be seen from the graph, this demand is again expected to be primarily led by growth in demand from electrical and transport segment. Covering ESG profile. Vedanta Aluminium has been focused on ESG leadership, and we have been consistently ranked within top two among global aluminum peers on the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment. We introduced our low-carbon and ultra-low-carbon aluminium in 2022. The emission range of these products is less than half of the globally recognized carbon emission threshold. Covering CSR. Our CSR involvement is spread over 370 villages across the two Indian states of Odisha and Chhattisgarh, covering nearly 7 lakh people. In conclusion and to summarize, VAML presents a compelling investment story built on five pillars. Scale and integration. We are India's largest aluminum producer with end-to-end integration and on track for global leadership. Cost.
We are already in the first quartile of global cost curve and are targeting the top decile post-integration this year. Operationalization of key coal and bauxite mines will ensure raw material security. Post execution of our projects and at current pricing levels, we estimate our EBITDA to double to $5.8 billion by FY 2029. ESG, we remain industry leaders and continue to progress on sustainability parameters. We believe Vedanta Aluminium as a standalone entity is uniquely positioned to offer institutional investors direct pure-play exposure to India's aluminum growth opportunity while delivering robust returns. Thank you all for your time today. Now I hand over to Jim to cover oil and gas. Thank you.
Thank you, Anup, and good afternoon, everybody. My name is Jim Gast, CEO of Vedanta Oil & Gas. I will take you through Cairn Vedanta Oil & Gas and how we are positioned to support India's growth while delivering strong value. At a high level, this is a business with existing scale, strong cash generation, and a clear pathway to meaningful production growth. It is also a business that is directly aligned with India's increasing need for domestic energy supply. I will walk you through five key areas: our value proposition, our industry outlook, our role in India's energy security, growth potential, and finally, financials and ESG. The flow is deliberate. We move from macro context to Vedanta Oil & Gas assets, to growth and returns. The post-demerger structure creates a pure-play, more focused investment case. Oil and gas sits as a distinct high-quality business within the Vedanta portfolio.
This improves transparency on performance, capital allocation, and growth delivery. Importantly, within the group, we remain the largest private sector crude oil producer in India, giving us strong scale and relevance. Our value proposition is built on a few core pillars. Market leadership in India, a large 1.3 billion barrels of oil-equivalent discovered resource base, and approximately 2.9 billion barrels of oil-equivalent prospective upside. Strong production growth trajectory to more than 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day by FY 2029, and technology-led development, particular in deep gas and tight oil. Importantly, a strong free cash flow profile. This is a growth story from a proven operating base, not only from exploration dependency. The broader energy outlook remains supportive. Oil and gas continue to play a central role in economic growth and the energy supply globally. While the energy mix evolves, hydrocarbons remain essential for stability and scale.
The current market is defined by supply side risk. Around 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply disruptions can have immediate impact, as we've seen, and limited ability to reroute or ramp up supply quickly. At the same time, U.S. shale cannot respond instantly, and offshore supply lag is several months. This reinforces the value of existing, reliable supply sources. Even with strong growth in renewables, as you can see on the left, oil and gas remains critical. Existing production declines naturally over time, as you see on the right, and this creates a need for continuous investment just to maintain supply levels. This is not a replacement cycle, it is an addition cycle across the energy sources. India is one of the strongest demand growth markets for energy globally. Oil demand is expected to increase significantly, and high import dependence continues.
At the same time, approximately 70% of hydrocarbon potential is still prognosed to be untapped in India. Only a limited number of basins currently are producing. Over recent times, government has shown increased focus on the oil and gas sector, and the recent regulatory changes show this intent. The OALP bid rounds and regulatory reforms are examples. The fiscal regime continues to become increasingly favorable for investment, and this creates a structural growth opportunity for domestic producers. Vedanta Oil & Gas plays a direct role in India's energy security. Increasing domestic production reduces reliance on imports, and this makes our growth not just commercial, but strategically important for the country. At acquisition in 2011, there were 11 blocks, 19,000 square kilometer acreage with a strong R&R base and high production and strong EBITDA.
Vedanta acquired a controlling stake to secure long life, high margin assets, particularly in Rajasthan, as you can see on the left, where it holds 6.5 trillion barrels of oil equivalent. Our ambition is to contribute 50% of India's oil production. This is enabled by assets, acreage, and R&R, people and capability, technology, and partnerships. These combine to deliver safe, sustainable, scalable production growth. Today, the business has scaled significantly compared to 2011. 44 blocks across basins, up from 11, 47,000 square kilometer acreage, up from 19,000, and approximately 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day production. 11 of the most significant basins out of the 26 sedimentary basins in India are covered. The prospective resource potential now stands at approximately 2.9 billion barrels of oil equivalents. This is now a large, diversified upstream platform.
We have a 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalents discovered R&R base, largely anchored in Rajasthan, but covering a large part of other parts of India. Rajasthan alone contributes approximately 82% of R&R. The asset base provides long production life, strong base cash flow, and multiple growth pathways. This is a durable production platform with meaningful upside. The near-term growth is driven by decline management, including tight oil developments, and exploration across the key basins. This is supported by technology-led recovery improvements, such as ASP, and partnership-based operating models. This is focused on execution over the next two years. Technology is central to higher production growth and value creation. We've had many firsts in global and in India. Polymer, which was the world's first, and ASP improve recovery significantly. Mangala recovery improving from approximately 33% to upwards of 60%.
We also leverage advanced drilling techniques and large field innovations, for example, the heated and insulated pipeline that our chairman was referring to. This drives higher recovery and stronger economics. Beyond the base business, we have a substantial pipeline of growth opportunities across the portfolio. Growth is driven by decline management, new tight oil, exploration levers, including deep water, and supported by technology and partnerships. This creates a diversified and resilient growth profile. Exploration upside is significant across the basins. In Rajasthan, for instance, 300 million barrels of oil equivalents. Offshore and deep water between 500 and 1,000 million barrels of oil equivalent potential. The northeast with 10 blocks of approximately 600 million barrels of oil equivalent. Active drilling programs and near-term milestones are already defined. This provides longer-term production upside. We have a clear production growth plan.
Strong increase in volumes with deep water exploration not depicted on the left, but having the potential to take production up by an additional 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The reserves replacements we anticipate is more than one. Additional improvements include gas mix is anticipated to increase from approximately 10%, and RSC contribution increases to more than 20%. This drives both volume and margin expansion. We are deploying advanced technologies such as CSEM in deep water, controlled source electromagnetics. This improves subsurface understanding and predictability in exploration, drilling success rates, and capital efficiency. It enables better decision and lower risks in exploration. Now turning to financial performance and outlook. On this slide, we demonstrate our clear trajectory of robust earning growth underpinned by disciplined execution and a strong operational outlook.
We have delivered EBITDA of more than $550 million in FY 2025, followed by approximately $500 million in FY 2026, primarily driven by softer Brent prices. The outlook going forward remains significantly strong. From FY 2027 onwards, EBITDA is expected to grow to more than $650 million, further scaling up to more than $900 million in FY 2028, sustaining that approximately the same in FY 2029. This growth is driven by a combination of production ramp-up and cost optimization, even under relative stable to softening oil price assumptions. Production is projected to increase from 88 to 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by FY 2029, reflecting delivery across assets and project execution. At the same time, we remain focused on efficiency with unit costs improving from $16.5 in FY 2027 to $13.5 per barrel of oil equivalent by FY 2029.
Overall, this positions us for resilient and sustainable earnings growth with a strong focus on value creation, operational excellence and capital discipline. ESG is fully embedded in our operations and strategy. We have delivered measurable results, 25% emissions reductions, high water recycling, more than 86%, and strong community impact. Safety and responsible operations remain central. This ensures long-term sustainability of the business. Let me close with three points. First, this is a business with a strong foundation, supported by a favorable policy environment and a high-quality, diversified portfolio across 44 blocks, giving us long-term visibility. Second, we have a clear and executable pathway to growth with multiple growth levers, moving to approximately 150,000 barrels per day in the near term, which is underpinned by disciplined drilling, technology-enabled delivery, and a strong focus on converting resources into production.
Third, we are focused on sustainable value creation, expanding our resource base to approximately 1.5 billion barrels, driving cost efficiency with meaningful OpEx reduction, and delivering consistent EBITDA growth with disciplined capital allocation. In short, this is about scale, efficiency, and returns, building India's oil and gas platform with strong cash generation and long-term upside. I now hand over to Rajinder from Vedanta Power. Thank you.
Thank you, Jim, and thank you everyone for joining us today. We are excited to present the Vedanta Power story, one of India's youngest and largest thermal power producers. With present capacity of 4.8 gigawatts generating asset in India, we are well-positioned to drive India's future power growth plans over next decade. Post demerger, it will be a pure play power company. Vedanta Power will comprise of IPP thermal generating portfolios, which includes Talwandi Sabo Power Plant, 1,980 megawatt, Meenakshi Energy, 1,000 megawatt, Athena Chhattisgarh, 1,200 megawatt, and Jharsuguda IPP with 600 megawatt capacity. Our vision is to be among top three private thermal players and support India's power growth plan for next two decades. With new growth sectors like data center, electrification of mobility, higher penetration of white goods, and continued urbanization, the Indian power sector is in a multi-year structural growth cycle.
We are India's fifth largest thermal power producer, with 4.8 gigawatt operational capacity and 600 megawatt under project phase. 74% of our operating capacity is tied up in midterm and long-term PPA. This is supported by domestic coal linkages also. There is a further roadmap underway to reach approx 12 gigawatt in capacity by FY 2033 and be among top three players in India and supplement India's 97 gigawatt thermal power requirement of 2035. With high focus on capacity expansion, operational initiatives, our EBITDA is expected to double by FY 2028 from current INR 1,500 crore in FY 2026. As we all know, power capacities shall proceed and enable the future economic growth. To supplement India's economic growth, India needs mix of renewable power, supported by reliable round-the-clock power base generation to support economic activity around the clock.
India's power market remains significantly under-penetrated on a per capita consumption basis versus the global peers and presents a substantial long-term demand growth opportunity for sustained growth of power sector. If you look at the peak demand growth, it has been growing on an annual basis at 5%-6% historically and is expected to continue to grow at a similar pace. The next generation of energy demand would be from growth in sectors like data centers, cooling requirement, electrification, industrialization, apart from the utilities. Most of these growth sectors would require round-the-clock, reliable power. That's despite all the capacity additions in renewable power, thermal continues to be a mainstay of Indian power sector, given its high reliability, round-the-clock availability.
Until nuclear, hydro, and storage technology matures and start playing a larger role in round-the-clock power availability, thermal is very well positioned to capture this present opportunity in the market. Even in the current context, coal-based power plant installed capacity in India is 47% of the total share, but its share in the power generation mix remains 73%. This tells the story of how important the coal-based power or round-the-clock power is to our nation's economic growth. A closer look at the current portfolio of Vedanta Power reveals a strategic assembly of assets. We are located across four different states. Our Talwandi Sabo Power Plant in Punjab and Meenakshi in Andhra Pradesh are located close to high demand centers, while our Chhattisgarh and Odisha plants are in close proximity to coal mines.
Geographically, 29% of our operating assets are in close proximity to coal mines, which gives us a huge commercial advantage. Overall, 74% of our current capacity has tied up PPAs, too. Meenakshi and Athena were acquired through NCLT process under IBC. The quick turnaround of Meenakshi within two years and delivering positive EBITDA, followed by turnaround of Athena within three years, highlight Vedanta Power's capability in turning around distressed assets into profitable business. All our plants are covered with adequate S2 connectivity, water allocation, coal linkage, and are strategically located. On the PPA front, our capacities in both Talwandi Sabo and Jharsuguda are tied up through long-term PPA with state government, while we retain the flexibility of competitive supply based on market pricing from our Meenakshi and Athena plants. This has given our business a fair mix of revenue visibility and competitive pricing.
We have large land parcel in almost all our power plants, and that gives us a strategic advantage to control brownfield expansion in the near future term. When I talk about the capacity roadmap, our ambitious capacity roadmap clearly illustrates our trajectory towards becoming a dominant force in Indian power sector. Vedanta Power has a proven track record of consistently scaling capacities, demonstrating remarkable growth over the past decade. We are looking to continue this expansion in the coming years. The financial year, we look forward to commission Athena Unit 2 and achieve the historic capacity of 4.8 gigawatt. The culmination of our strategic initiative and operational discipline is evident in our impressive financial trajectory. We expect revenue to grow from INR 6,000 crore in FY 2025 to over INR 14,000 crore by FY 2029. EBITDA over the same period is projected to increase five-fold.
While we may see some impact of recent incident at Athena in FY 2027, and as the impact is still to be determined, on a normalized basis, we are targeting EBITDA of around INR 2,200 crore in the year. The 50% CAGR is driven through operational excellence, stringent cost optimization measures, maximization of sales volume, and NSR, coupled with robust capacity growth. Vedanta Power is on a clear path from negative to positive free cash flow from core operations, and this gives us the financial firepower to self-fund our future growth ambitions. On cost remains a clear focus for our operating teams, and coal cost is the major contributor of total cost of power we produce at Athena and Meenakshi. We have a clear roadmap for next two years for reduction in coal cost through linkage coal, optimized mine selection, and dedicated rail line, which is under implementation at Athena.
This will further improve our EBITDA margins at Athena. Meenakshi is a coastal-based thermal power plant, strategically located near Krishnapatnam Port, and is designed to operate with 100% imported coal. However, due to geopolitical situation, the fluctuating imported coal price, we are now transitioning towards 100% domestic coal. This would help us to reduce cost and have a more stable coal supply chain. Our share of domestic coal was 30% in FY 2026, which will increase to 65% in this financial year. We are targeting 100% domestic coal utilization by FY 2028, for which the CAPEX is already underway. Operationalization of the NGPM Railway Siding and Ennore Port, along with the completion of Sagarmala Road, will help us diversify our coal sources and bring our costs down further. All this will result in baseline improvement and sustainable cost saving, insulating us from future geopolitical risk at Meenakshi.
We have divided our growth strategy into short term, medium term, long term. For short term, as I already said, that we are in the process of expanding Athena to 1,200 MW by commissioning the unit number 2 by end of this year. Medium term, we are targeting to add another 7.2 GW of expansion in Athena, and we will continue to explore acquisition of coal blocks based on economic due diligence also. Long term, our focus remains on addition of base load and RTC power through thermal, nuclear, hydro generation. In case of nuclear, as country looks to open the segment for private participation through SHANTI Act, it is a great opportunity for private companies like us to take part in nuclear power generation business. Hydro power is another area where we continue to evaluate all possible opportunities.
Beyond generation, power distribution remains an area of interest as Government of India focuses on improving the financial and operational efficiency of distribution companies through privatization. We will continuously evaluate and participate in the upcoming opportunities. When I talk about the medium term opportunity at Athena, the next leg of growth will be driven by the greenfield expansion. We have done pre-feasibility to add nine unit of 800 MW at Athena, and the project capacity addition would benefit from proximity to coal mines, a significant structural cost advantage. We are in a process to apply and take various approvals for water, power allocation and EC process, as well as project financing with our stakeholders and partners. The growth project will be blend of merchant power and the DBFOO. The DBFOO capacity will be based on favorable outcome in upcoming bids, which we will be participating.
The medium term, 7.2 GW capacity expansion at Athena would lead to a significant growth in revenue and EBITDA between FY 2029 and FY 2033. The revenues are projected to increase by additional 2.7x and EBITDA to grow by 43% CAGR after the expansion is over. At Vedanta Power, the commitment to sustainable future is paramount. With our high focus on local employment, CSR, creating a positive impact in the life for the community, we have set clear targets for our near future. We ensure communities are at core of our business decisions, and we continue to spend on skill set development, education, nutrition, healthcare in the local communities. We are relentlessly focused on minimizing our environment footprint with TSP using 5% of biomass help us reduce the GHG intensity. Also the target and initiative around improving water efficiency and maximization of ash utilization remains a core focus area.
On the workplace side, safety is our value, and there is an increased focus on prioritizing safety and health of the employees. We have gender diversity of 30%, and we wish to take it to 40% next 2-3 years. All of these targets are backed by on-ground initiative and best-in-class standards, which we follow across our site. In conclusion, Vedanta Power is well-positioned to capture India's power growth demand and continued reliance on thermal power and base load. Our existing asset benefit from strong fuel linkage, diversified and long-term PPAs, and more importantly, a visible and strong growth pipeline. We are looking to reach to 4.8 gigawatt capacity by FY 2028, and plan is underway for 12 gigawatt by FY 2033. There is a long runway of growth and value creation ahead of us. Thank you, and I hand it over to Naveen Jaju. Thank you.
Thank you, Rajinder. Good day, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I am Naveen Jaju, CFO of Vedanta Iron & Steel Business. I am here to take you through the compelling story of Vedanta Iron & Steel, hereinafter referred to as VIS. VIS is a business that we believe is at its growth inflection point as we transition to become a 5 MTPA integrated steel player by FY 2029. VIS will hold our steel manufacturing operations in Bokaro, value-added business in Goa. Our iron ore mines operations spanning across Goa, Odisha, Karnataka, and Liberia, captive and merchant metal facilities, and captive logistics infrastructure. We have a fully integrated asset base. On the upstream side, we have captive iron ore, coke facilities, captive power. On the downstream side, we have value-added products, including wire rods, TMT bars, API pipes, and high-silicon iron.
We are one of the largest Indian private sector exporter of iron ore, and our iron ore asset base is strategically located across three states of India in Goa, Karnataka and Odisha, and in Africa and Liberia. These assets are in close proximity of our ports and our steel facilities. Our aim is to further ramp up our beneficiation plant at our mining operations, while also setting up a 2 MTPA pellet plant in Odisha and 10 MTPA concentrated plant in Liberia. Our dedicated supply chain infrastructure, including river fleet and transhipper, private railway sidings, added with proximity to ports, gives us an unique cost and logistical advantage. We are structurally repositioning the business by reversing the EBITDA mix, transitioning from 30% to a targeted 70% contribution from steel, establishing it as the primary value driver. We operate a steel plant in Bokaro, ESL, and a value-added plant in Goa.
We are expanding our steel capacity at ESL plant in phase 1 from 1.6 MTPA to 3.2 MTPA in current financial year, and further debottlenecking to 3.7 MTPA by FY 2029. In fact, our large land bank at ESL, along with sufficient high quality captive iron ore in close proximity to national gas grid, gives us the ability to scale up our steel manufacturing capacity at Bokaro to 13 MTPA. We have a strong and long life mining resource base with approximately 4 billion tons of R&R and above 50 years of mine life. This provides us with inherent raw material security and long-term visibility. We are working on our international operations at Liberia, taking it to 10 MTPA of high-grade 67 Fe pellet feed iron ore concentrate in phased manner by FY 2032. This will play a pivotal role in transitioning to green steel manufacturing.
From a financial standpoint, the business is expected to deliver strong earning growth, with consolidated EBITDA projected to increase 4x from $133 million in FY 2026 to $526 million by FY 2029. This growth is driven by a combination of scale, integration, efficiency, and improved product mix. Along with growth, financial prudence and a healthy balance sheet will be our priority. Net debt to EBITDA will be maintained at less than 2x during the growth trajectory. Our iron ore mines in India have a total production capacity of 15 MTPA spread across six mines. Apart from the Indian assets, we also have three mines in Liberia, which have a total R&R of 3.7 billion tonne, with 50 plus years of mine life. We are planning to increase our Indian iron ore production to 18.5 MTPA by FY 2029, and 10 MTPA high-grade concentrate from Liberia by FY 2030.
This would ensure a robust supply for both captive consumption and merchant markets. Our captive river fleet and transhipper are capable of handling 10.2 MTPA cargo, giving us a unique logistical and cost advantage position. Moving on to our steel business, it is at the heart of the VISL growth history. As mentioned previously, we are on a journey to double our steel capacity by FY 2029. By the end of FY 2029, we will have an installed capacity of 5 MTPA for current 2.8 MTPA, and our entire production will be value-added products. At ESL, with 2,300 acres of land, private railway siding, access to national gas grid, and dedicated water pipeline, we are well-positioned to expand up to 13 MTPA. Located in the eastern steel hub, ESL also benefits from proximity to iron ore sources and ports.
As an early mover in AI adoption, we have deployed digital twin across plant operations and are progressively scaling them across our facilities to enhance safety, throughput productivity, reduce carbon intensity, and drive cost efficiency. On the steel side, India's per capita consumption is far below the global average, providing a significant headroom for multi-decadal growth. This, coupled with continued policy support, government focus on infrastructure growth, India steel demand will continue to grow at higher single digit or lower double-digit growth. We have a robust CapEx pipeline of over $1.2 billion till FY 2029, expanding across upstream mining and downstream steel and value-added products. Out of this, $268 million is already spent, and remaining CapEx spend is in cash manner. Our investments are sharply focused on integration and value addition.
This includes development of iron ore concentrator at Liberia and beneficiation plants in Indian mines, expansion of ESL steel capacity, and downstream facilities. This will strengthen our presence across high-growth segments. Over the next three years, these projects will double our steel capacity, improve product mix, and further strengthen VISL position as a fully integrated iron and steel player. With the expansion planned both on iron and steel side, on a combined basis, we are expecting 4x EBITDA growth by FY 2029. At Vedanta, ESG principles are our core priority. From renewable energy adoption and low GHG intensity steel to transforming over 1 billion lives through education, healthcare, and skilling, our ESG commitments run deep. Through our sports development initiative, Sesa Football Academy and Vedanta ESL Archery Academy, we have enabled 12 international football players and nurtured 11 national-level athletes in archery.
With 23% gender diversity among the highest in the industry and 30% targeted by 2030, we are building a workspace that is inclusive, safe, and future-ready. To conclude, Vedanta Iron & Steel, with its more than seven decades of experience, high-quality resources, strong asset base, and proven execution capabilities, is well-placed to achieve 5 MTPA steel capacity by FY 2029. With 2x volume growth, combined with a strategic shift to 100% value-added products portfolio, significantly enhancing realization, quality, and margin stability. With this, steel business will contribute 70% of the total iron and steel EBITDA as against 30% in the previous years. Our captive resource base provides clear headroom to scale up to 30 MTPA iron ore capacity and 15 MTPA steel capacity over the medium term. This underpins a credible and compelling growth trajectory as steel becomes an increasingly significant contributor to the business.
With this, thank you for your time today, and now I will hand it back to Charanjit. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Naveen. I will now briefly share some color on the opening balance sheet of the merged entities, our capital allocation policy, and our targeted EBITDA for FY 2027 at a consolidated level. As you all know, in FY 2026, we generated operating cash flow, free cash flow of around $3 billion, which was primarily used to finance our growth CapEx of around $1.7 billion, and the remainder funded our dividend payout during the year. We ended the year with net debt of around $5.7 billion, which provides for a net debt to EBITDA ratio of less than one on a consolidated level. Given the demerger at our four companies out of five, the opening net debt to EBITDA ratio is less than 1.3x, with the oil and gas entity being net cash positive, as was also highlighted by our chairman in his message.
Our fifth company with the power business has an opening net debt to EBITDA ratio of around four, which is estimated to decline to around two in the next two years. This business funds its CapEx on a project basis backed by long duration debt, with debt servicing aligned to project cash flows. Looking ahead, we aim to continue maintaining a disciplined capital allocation approach, striking an optimal balance between funding growth and deleveraging with a focus to maximize shareholders' value. We remain committed to reducing the debt at Vedanta Resources, our holding company, to around $3 billion in two years' time, which is currently at $5 billion now. At all the five operating entities, the focus is on continuous improvement in net debt to EBITDA ratio, thereby ensuring even a stronger balance sheet at the individual company level.
We see ourselves well-positioned to deliver another record year of performance as we target consolidated EBITDA of over $9 billion in FY 2027. The growth in earnings is guided by the capacity additions across many of our businesses, given the reported commissioning of new facilities in FY 2026, alongside the progress made on various structural initiatives to reduce costs and improve realizations through a higher share of value-added products in our portfolio. With this, we have now come to the end of today's webinar. Given the duration of presentations, we thought it would be more prudent to address your queries on a one-to-one basis. We are always available for a meeting call in case you have any questions that are to be answered. Thank you for your time, your patient hearing, but we look forward to connecting with you soon. Good day, everyone.