Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to 3Q FY23 Vedanta Limited earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sandeep Agrawal, Group Head, Investor Relations, Vedanta Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Faizan, and hello, everyone. I am Sandeep Agrawal. On behalf of Vedanta Limited, I am delighted to welcome you to our third quarter of this financial year earnings call. A transcript of this call will be made available on our website, as well as audio. The financial statements, press release, and presentation are already available on the website. Today, from our leadership team, we have with us Mr. Sunil Duggal, our Group CEO; Mr. Ajay Goel, Group CFO. We are also joined by leaders from a couple of key businesses, Mr. Arun Misra, CEO, Zinc Business; and Rahul Sharma, Deputy CEO, Aluminum Business. Please note, today's entire discussion will be covered by the cautionary statement on slide two of the presentation. We will start with update on our operational and financial performance, and then we'll open the floor for questions and answers.
Now, without further ado, I would like to hand over the call to Mr. Duggal.
Thank you, Sandeep. Good evening, everyone. Welcome to quarter three conference call. During the third quarter, the Indian economy remained strong and resilient on strong macroeconomic fundamentals and healthy domestic consumption. Despite rising interest rates, robust growth was witnessed in metal-consuming sectors like housing, automobile, consumer durables. The global economy continued to grapple with multiple headwinds like monetary tightening, high inflation, geopolitical instability, and volatility in financial markets. Commodity prices also witnessed sluggishness. In this macro environment, our team has performed commendably. We stood several initiatives, achieved strong operational performance. We delivered good set of financial results despite weaker commodity prices. Our third quarter EBITDA stood at INR 7,900 crore. Free cash, free CapEx for the quarter stood at INR 6,500 crore. We focused on working capital and cost optimization.
In line with our repurposed ESG strategy, we work to uplift the quality of life of communities through various initiatives around drinking water, sanitation, healthcare, community infrastructure, children wellbeing, and education, among others. We spent more than INR 216 crore in the first nine months of the year and positively touched 3.14+ million lives. Our ESG focus and action have been recognized by several major ESG rating agencies. Vedanta Limited is now ranked sixth globally among top 10 diversified metal and mining peers in DJSI and has been inducted into Dow Jones Sustainability Emerging Market Index. Our MSCI ESG rating has improved from triple C into zero two zero two double B now. Sustainalytics have also improved our ESG risk score by 4.5 points.
Across the board, improvement in our ESG risk rating is a testimony of our team's diligent efforts to become an ESG leader in the industry. Furthering on our goal to deploy 2.5 GW of round-the-clock renewable energy for our operation by 2030, I'm delighted to share that we have approved plans for another 4,941 MWh power under group captive hour power development program for our operations across India, including in Sirsaganj. During the quarter, our aluminum business procured 390 million units of hour power and are conducting biofuel trials as green alternative for ladle preheating and heavy vehicles. We successfully conducted biomass trials at [ Sirsaganj] and ESL to explore alternative sources of clean energy. We have also joined as a guest Cairn India and iron ore businesses in net water positive operation.
Cairn signed MoU with Gujarat Forest Department for development of 60 hectare mangrove forest, 50,000 saplings in coastal area of Surat. In our effort to promote biodiversity and preserve environment, we introduced an industry-leading EV policy for all our employees. The policy will lead to increased adoption of EVs amongst employees and drive the mindset change aiding India's green mobility push for a sustainable future. I'll come to operations, and first on aluminum. Our quarterly COP further reduced by 12% to $2,149 per ton on account of operations and buying efficiency. Our linkage coal materialization improved to 66%. We have commenced operation at Jamkhani mines. We continue to focus on volume growth and vertical integration projects to unlock its full potential. Zinc India achieved best ever mine and refined metal production in nine months.
Its quarterly refined metal production improved 5% QoQ with better plant and mine metal availability. It continues to be in the first quartile of global cost curve. Zinc International operations are now steady at 280+ KTPA, MIC production run rate. It achieved best ever MIC production in nine months. Gamsberg cost of production excluding TcRc in this quarter decreased 12% YoY with operational efficiency and higher production volumes. Gamsberg phase two expansion is progressing well. In oil and gas business, our average gross production increased 3% QoQ to 145 kbopd as natural production decline was offset by infill wells in MB and RDB fields. We have successfully drilled one exploration well in Ravva and have put that to production, adding close to five kbopd. We commenced first gas and condensate facility in Jaya field, which is OALP.
As you know that the government has extended the PSC for 10 years. We have signed the addendum to extension with effect from May 2020. In iron ore business, our production of saleable ore in Karnataka increased by 32% QoQ. Sale was sluggish due to government import duty and exports. Now it has picked up. Pig iron production was up by 66% QoQ to 200 KT as all our furnaces were online for post-maintenance shutdown in the previous quarter. However, we saw a quarterly decline in pig iron margin owing to price correction. Our Liberia operation achieved its first ever export shipment in this month. In steel, one of our blast furnace was put on maintenance shutdown, resulting in a 6% quarterly production decline.
Our quarterly COP, excluding the impact of iron ore mine cost, improved on account of lower coking coal cost. However, ESL's margin was impacted by decline in steel prices and high cost of production with the newly acquired iron ore mine owing to regulatory charges to be paid on iron ore production. In FACOR, nine-month ore production grew 15% YoY due to operation efficiency. Our 60 KTPA furnace is undergoing test run, and we are on track to get first production in the month of February current quarter. Overall, we have made significant progress across our strategic priorities, creating value for our stakeholders. Our world-class assets have delivered outstanding financial results driven by operational efficiency. I would also like to share that Vedanta board has approved the sale of its VZI assets to ESL at valuation of $2.98 billion.
Consolidation of VZI under HZL will fast-track VZI's growth by using HZL's best-in-class expertise in underground mining, smelting and metal marketing. HZL's combined R&R would be 1 billion ton plus, it would have benefit of improved access to developed markets and strong foothold in African subcontinent for expansion. This monetization would provide greater flexibility to Vedanta for future growth projects and manage leverage at group level. This transaction is win-win transaction and will unlock significant value for both HZL and Vedanta shareholders. Moving forward, we are optimistic on the commodity market and macro data that we see now is improving. China's reopening post zero COVID policy, property market stimulus and frontloading of infrastructure investment to expand is another positive for metals global demand. At the same time, India's economic situation is expected to be better than the rest of the world due to strong domestic consumption.
Moreover, this is seasonally a good quarter for commodity demand in India. India being our largest market, its continued strength augurs well for our business performance. With our outstanding portfolio of low-cost assets, multi-commodity presence, strong balance sheet, and a commitment to ESG leadership, we are well-positioned to deliver value to our shareholders and our community. With this now, I would like to hand over to our CFO, Mr. Ajay Goel for financial performance. Over to you, Ajay.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you, Duggal. Good evening, everyone. Third quarter witnessed a falling inflation and improving sentiments, which has driven recent metal outperformance. Indian economy remained buoyant and saw strong growth in metal-consuming sectors. India's manufacturing sectors ended 2022 on a strong note with the manufacturing PMI rising to two-year high of almost 57.8. India's inflation eased below RBI's upper tolerance level for the first time in December to 5.7%. We believe that the commodity prices are now under the influence of demand recovery and will stay elevated in calendar 2023 and beyond. This quarter's performance witnessed steady production, easing of inflation that helped in a lower operating cost. At the same time, the profit was impacted by further softening of commodity prices.
Numbers for the full three are reflection of continuing our various improvement initiatives in terms of enhancing production, lowering operating cost, and focus on free cash flow. I want to share some of the highlights for the current quarter, they being the consolidated quarterly revenue stands at about INR 33,691 crore, down 7% quarter-on-quarter, impacted by lower LME and Brent. The quarterly EBITDA at INR 7,100 crore with a margin of 24%, supported by easing of input inflation also strategic hedging. The highlight, the main highlight for the current quarter remains our profit after tax, PAT, which is at about INR 3,093, which increased by 15%, 15, quarter-on-quarter. Healthy free cash flow, pre-CapEx, INR 6,504 crore. Also we continue to maintain strong double-digit ROCE of almost 23%.
You heard that, we also declared INR 12.5 per share, fourth interim dividend. That makes total for the full fiscal at about INR 81 per share YTD, and that also makes Vedanta the highest dividend paying company amongst its peers in India. Before I move ahead further in Q3 performance, I would like to also highlight that our key metal businesses, that is Zinc India, Zinc International and Aluminum, recorded highest ever MIC and metal production in the last nine months. This demonstrates that our long-term fundamentals remain strong, and we will deliver a robust year in terms of operational growth. We have an income statement in appendix, where you will find details against each head of profit and loss account. I now move to EBITDA bridge.
When compared the third quarter EBITDA to the second quarter, the largest driver was the lower input inflation and forex gain, which was partly offset by lower metal and Brent prices. If you look at items that were under our control during the quarter, we did well in terms of operating performance on cost front, which was the outcome of various improvement initiatives running across the businesses and to some extent strategic hedging in Q3 as well. If you compare last quarter, the benefit of hedging was lower comparatively and therefore it also impacted the EBITDA for the quarter. Moving on to next page on net debt bridge. Net debt as on December 31st stand at about INR 38,000 crores with net debt to EBITDA, the leverage ratio, at 0.966, which is maintained at low levels amongst Indian peers.
The increase in the debt in the current quarter is a result of spending on various sustaining and growth CapEx at businesses, and also the money returned to shareholders that resulted in better debt mix at overall Vedanta Group level. As we are committed, earlier our net debt to EBITDA level remains comfortable and well within the range of our capital allocation framework. Moving on to the balance sheet. We have built a more harmonious balance sheet with assets and liabilities moving towards better equilibrium. By which I mean to say the overall debt at holding company has come down significantly in the current fiscal. We are well positioned to address our current maturities, focusing on driving improvement. We also continue to have solid balance sheet with our net debt to EBITDA maintained at comfortable low levels.
We finished the quarter with almost $2.8 billion of healthy cash and cash equivalents. Our average maturity is maintained at about 3.7 years, with average cost of borrowings at about 7.7%. Our credit rating continues to be at AA with a stable outlook, both by India Ratings and CRISIL. We move a step closer to our commitment of reducing Holdco debt by $4 billion over three years. In the first nine months, which is April to December, we deleveraged Holdco by $1.7 billion. We are confident in our ability to close the year with a strong performance as we have expertise to drive improvements across businesses while successfully weathering macroeconomic uncertainties. We have numerous initiatives that support our strategic priorities and collect premium.
These will position us to meet growing demand for net zero transition, at the same time returning capital to shareholders. With this, I now hand over to operator for Q&A. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Reminder to the participants, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one. The first question is from the line of Pinakin Parekh from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you very much, sir. My first question is on the proposed transaction with Hindustan Zinc. Now, given that in the past, the government apparently did not approve that transaction back in 2012 when it was proposed to buy, what gives us confidence this time that the government representatives will be on board to approve the transaction?
This transaction is value accretive for both the organizations. On the kind of reserve and resources the VZI has at that point of time and now it has, and the Hamsagar has been put up as well as
Already ramped up to almost the full production. Second project is in pipeline. That means the business is on track to deliver 600 MTPA of volume in the next two years' time. Along with that, a lot of exploration success has come. From the time, then to now, you can see that the total contained metal in Vedanta is more than in the Hindustan Zinc at this point of time. It creates a huge synergy and the success of Hindustan Zinc are transitioning to underground, putting up the smelting capacity, integrating the operation. I think it is, it is a winning combination. With that winning combination, the government gains.
You can see that ONGC Videsh, other government company, now the government has set up Kabil to acquire the assets abroad, which is under the Ministry of Mines today. The government is looking at the global footprint. We believe that this proposal could be exciting for the country, for the government, and why should government not support this?
Sure, sir. My last question is that, with the expected proceeds, I think $2.4 billion upfront, and then the remaining over the, over a time frame, what does Vedanta Limited, you know, plan to do with the cash? Would that be entire amount be distributed as dividends, or will it look at some kind of acquisitions?
Sure. Pinakin, I mean, you remember our policy on allocation of capital of eight of 10. The entire proceeds of INR 2.4+ to INR 0.5 in fullness of time will be used, and it will be guided by our policy on allocation of capital. It may have multiple usages. Example remains using that money for funding our project in terms of growth CapEx and including the payment of dividend and deleveraging both VEDL and also VRL as a group.
Any deleveraging at VRL would be done via dividends from Vedanta Limited, or can we expect intercompany loans or asset buybacks from Vedanta Resources to Vedanta Limited?
Any kind of IC with the inter-corporate loan is out of question. I covered this point also in a couple of the earlier calls. There is a no ICD plan.
Sure.
In terms of how this money, we can repatriate, be it, dividend or other means, I think that is something we are working on, Pinakin. As I mentioned.
Sure.
The allocation of capital policy remains the working theme. It'll be used for funding our growth capexes, any acquisitions. At the same time, payment of dividend and deleveraging VEDL or VRL.
HZL, we have spoken at many fronts and many times.
Sure. Understood. Thank you very much, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prashant KP Kota from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Good evening, and congratulations, sir, for the deal with HZL. It's really reassuring that you have committed again that there'll be no ICD replica. It's reassuring. Now couple of questions. On Aluminum Business, how do you expect the COP to progress in Q4 FY 2023, assuming the coal linkage here is materialized at 60%-70%, and all other sources of coal are priced at where they are today. What is the COP that we can expect in Q4?
I have colleague in the name of Rahul Sharma, who is the CEO of Indian business with me. In the meantime, you can appreciate that we reduced the cost by, say, around $300 in quarter three compared to quarter two. We feel that broadly the journey could continue depending on how much of the coal realization, linkage coal realization and the movement would come. There are a lot of levers in hand, and we believe that we may have good cost reduction. Any guidance, Rahul, you want to give?
Thanks, Mr. Duggal. I think first I would just like to, you know, maybe, you know, just to take you flashback in terms of in Q2 we, if you recall, we have said that, we'll reduce our, you know, cost by $200, and that was a astute, you know, guidance. If you see in Q3 itself, we have reduced $280, which is 12% reduction. That is purely comes from, you know, three factors. One is that, you know, for sure is the coal cost, improved official KPI and also the mining efficiency. Coming to the Q4, I think, we see that, it's going to better from here, especially the lever which we have seen because we are, going to have a 100%, coal metallization.
Also our Jamkhani coal mine, which has started in December. We are looking quantity from Jamkhani mine and also softer the commodity price. We see that there is going to be the, you know, further reduction and maybe, you know, range maybe around 5%-7%.
Understood, sir. Understood, sir. Thank you. Sir, my second question is on oil and gas business. Sir, am I missing something here? The realizations QoQ are lower because of the lower crude prices. The volumes are same, COP same. However, EBITDA and revenue are same despite lower realizations. Is there any mix issue here or what is it that I'm missing?
The volumes are up slightly. The volumes are up by 3%. The cost is down by $1 per barrel or so. There are positive levers around the operation because of which... What is the percentage increase in EBITDA from oil and gas?
It is flat, sir. It is flat QoQ ?
Flat.
Despite much lower, crude prices and realization prices.
Yeah. You can see that the volume has gone up to 145- 146, and the cost has also reduced.
Okay, sir. Understood, sir. If there's any other minor thing, I will try to reconcile with your team, sir. Thanks, sir.
Thanks. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Couple of questions. First is I just wanted to have a sense and understanding of the net maturity profile at Vedanta Resources. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but what I understand is we have a total outflow of around $2.5 billion. I think we are trying to tap into PSUs, probably look to rollover at Barclays and even potentially looking to top up at Oaktree. I just wanted to understand how should one look at the cash flows from now till June, if one has to take care of the cash flow requirement at the parent level?
Sure, Ritesh. If you look at maybe the two quarters, the one is the fourth quarter, the current quarter at the end of March. The need for the funding at VEDL is about INR 550 million. With the current dividend of INR 12.5 rupees and the remainder amount. We are fully covered. The entire cash requirement in terms of source and application are fully in equilibrium for the current quarter. If you look at the Q1 of next fiscal, which is April to June, the total requirement at Vedanta Resources is almost INR 2.1 billion. In fact, INR 2,050 million to be precise. Again, multiple discussion you're right, are going on. I would say three large bucket of to meet INR 2.1 billion.
First of all, the Oaktree upsizing by almost $750 million is one avenue. Secondly, we are in talks with the various banks, be it PSE or multinational banks, at least half a billion we assume we'll get from there, so $1.2. Remainder amount is a combination of, I guess, a brand fee which will stay in the first quarter and dividend. So both for Q4 we are fully locked in, and Q1 we are in the advanced stages of closing all of those over next two weeks' time.
All right. Sir, if I just go by the numbers, what you indicated, assuming Oaktree at $750, brand fee at $300 million, PSU is $550, Barcap at $150, it still leaves with a gap of nearly $750 million. Is this what we are saying is it could be by way of dividends and are we pretty much okay that the cash flows from India operations will be able to cover for this post CapEx?
I think those are the ones which are already in the pipeline now to release. Even the numbers can go hard. With a combination of $750 million, half a billion and the brand fee, we'll be covering almost $1.7 billion or so. That leaves a small number, and even that we can cover. Any additional payment of dividend always an option in Q1.
Sure. sir, I just wanted to understand, we were striving for GR to RE, which I think, the court has actually put a spanner. How does your thinking change basically when we are looking at a cash flows, for the next year, specifically given there is again, upwards of $2.5 billion plus of maturity, for Vedanta Resources? I'm just trying to understand your thought process when it comes to matching the cash flows, cash flow requirement at the parent.
Yeah, sure. The whole proposal, as you remember, we spoke in last also couple of investors call. The whole movement from GR to RE was futuristic, knowing that the whole GR concept is basically a pass under new Companies Act, including, I would think, in very contemporary technical accounting. Companies are doing it even to manage things for the future. Amount that we paid in the last fiscal, including the two days amount, is from the current reserves and profitability. The hearing at NCLT has taken place and all the hearing by both the parties has been finished. The order is reserved and we are expecting the order to come over next four to six weeks' time.
What we are looking right now is to get the NOC from the bankers. We have significant portion. More than 50% bankers have given NOC. We expect that the whole GR to RE closure will be happening within the fourth quarter.
We are quite hopeful about it.
Perfect. Sir, last question. Sir, are there any covenants that one has to be mindful of? We understand Vedanta India balance sheet is pretty much okay. When we look at the bond documents, we have in past taken leeway to actually basically soften out the covenants. Are there any hard covenants that one needs to be watchful for?
I think all the covenants even at Vedanta Resources are quite, I think, written and standard. Nothing that I think, we need to, we need to worry about.
Sure. That is very helpful, sir. I have more questions. I'll join back with you. I wish you good luck. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Reminder to the participants. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Two questions from my side, both again on the transaction. First, what would be the tax incidence of this inflow that we will get about $2.98 billion? What is the kind of cost on the books that we have and if there's any tax incidence on this?
Sure. Again, Indrajit, in terms of taxation, I want to look at in fact the two aspects. One is the international one, and the entire transaction from the international tax viewpoint is fully tax agnostic. The INR 2.981 would receive the full consideration. There is no tax implication. Secondly, from the Indian tax perspective, I think that's where we are still evaluating certain tax optimization ideas.
Even if we upstream this as a dividend, will there be a tax incidence thing or, that is still under consideration?
That we are still working on in the due course.
Sure. My second question is on the first trans payment of $2.5 or $2.4 billion. What are the milestones or approvals that we are awaiting, post which we will see that this amount will be upstreamed to us. What kind of numbers are we looking at or what kind of milestones we are seeing?
In terms of approvals, you know, this is an RPT as we know, and that too also material RPT which is crossing INR 1,000 crores. In terms of approvals it is the audit committee of both the companies, Zinc and Vedanta Limited, which is done. Board of both the companies also has cleared the transaction. The third step of course is sending a postal ballot and getting the approval by the shareholders. There we need the majority of the minority. The entire process both from the Zinc side and from the Vedanta side will be finished over next six weeks. Early March it will be finished. Thereafter, the $2.4 billion sale consideration leaving that deferred consideration can finish pretty quickly over next one month.
We don't have to wait for... Sorry [crosstalk].
We don't have to wait for?
Any government approvals either in India or overseas.
No, it's a board matter. The board has already approved this and post that we have to get the shareholder approval as explained by Ajay.
Sure. Thank you so much. That's all from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rahul Jain from Systematix. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi sir. Thanks for taking my call. Sir, I had a couple of questions. Firstly, on, can you give some update on the expansion of alumina and aluminum at, you know, Lanjigarh and what is the status over there? When can we see additional output coming from there?
The erection work is in full swing. The expansion is in two parts. One is 1. billion ton, train one. 1.5 million ton, train two. As we speak the train one mechanical completion is getting over and by this quarter end or the early quarter, next quarter, the plant will be fired. We are hopeful that in the next one to two quarters it should ramp up to the full volume. That is train one. The second train, I think by the middle of the next year the mechanical completion will be over, thereafter it will take one quarter or one and a half quarter to fully ramp up.
By the end of the next year, exit, the total alumina refinery up to a capacity of 3 million ton will be up and running.
Right. Sir on the on the the sale of the transaction the whatever.
This is the operator.
We lost him.
Sir we are not able to hear you.
Can you hear me?
One moment, sir. This is the operator. Sir, we can hear you.
I think, the way he was asking.
From Systematix. Please repeat your question, sir.
No, I was asking that, whatever dividend payment we will get, from the sale of the conclusion of the transaction, whatever money we will get will be paid out as dividends.
I covered this earlier in the call. I said, in terms of this entire money, $2.4+ to $0.5, in terms of utilization will be guided by company's policy and allocation of capital. It can be used for funding our CapExes both in sustaining at the same time payment of dividends and deleveraging for VEDL and the VRL. Substantial portion we intend to use for deleveraging at the group level.
Okay, sir. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Reminder to the participants, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.
Hi sir. Thanks for the opportunity again. Duggal sir question for you? Sir how should we look at incremental capital allocation? I think we have been awaiting clarity specifically on the semiconductor foray. If you can provide some color over there. I think secondly, after Athena, we have gobbled another asset in Meenakshi at pretty attractive valuations. I was just trying to get a sense on incrementally on capital allocation and how are we marrying this decision specifically with the ESG targets that we already stated.
You are asking about the semiconductor business, no?
Yes, sir.
Semiconductor business as of now is not under ambit of Vedanta. If any call will be taken, so we'll discuss this question at that point of time.
Sir, if I may just, if one had, if hypothetically it goes at the parent or at Vedanta India listed entity, how should we look at the financials? If you can, if it's possible, if you can indicate what is the quantum of CapEx which is required. I assume that the JV with Foxconn 50/50 and there might be 30/70, so the effective outcome might be a bit low. Can you give us some comfort with some numbers over here? Basically we can take, we can understand it better.
Ritesh, you have to appreciate that once this transaction is not approved, I am not supposed to discuss this numbers also at this point of time. You can do your maths. Some of the numbers you are doing in your mind is also right, but it would not require much of a CapEx. With the participation of Foxconn and the government subsidy, you understand, and there is a state subsidy also, over 50% subsidy from the center.
Sure.
Beyond this, it will not be possible for me to comment.
No problem. Sir, on power and secondly, basically Hindustan Zinc, incremental basically OFS if at all? After Athena we have Meenakshi. Anything on that side specifically we have, we have steep targets even on ESG?
See, as far as ESG is concerned, we made the Ten Commandments declaration to the market that what are we going to do. One of that was that 25% of our operation will be decarbonized by 2030. There are various approvals, projects, initiatives various entities are taking. The plan is that we put 4 GW of the capacity in the pipeline this quarter itself. Even when we take the PLF of 4 GW, it will reduce the carbon footprint by 15% from our current level. Against our overall declaration of 25%, if we are able to decarbonize 15% in the next two years' time, I think we should pat ourselves on the back, number one.
Number two, as far as Athena and Meenakshi is concerned, see the power demand in country, you must have seen last year has gone up by 8%-10%. The way the GDP growth is projected and the way the standard of living of the people is going up, I feel that the power growth, the power demand growth is going to be 8%-10% in the next few years' time. These are idle assets. It is in the best interest of the nation that these idle assets should be put into operation. From that point of view, our footprints are not increasing from our operations. This is an initiative I think which is in the best interest of the society and the country.
That is why we think that what we are doing is the right thing to do.
Sure. Sir, on the Hindustan Zinc, OFS, any update on the status?
OFS on Hindustan Zinc, Arun, you are a party to the journey roadshow. If you can comment on that.
Yes. sir, thank you for the question. We have conducted a roadshow extensively, spanning many countries along with Government of India, a very positive feedback from the potential buyers. I think Government is working out in what form, how many tranches they would do, let's wait for that.
Thank you. Mr. Shah, may we request that you attend to the question queue for follow-up questions. Thank you. We'll take the next question from the line of Alok Deora from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Sir, just, question on aluminum, you know, growth outlook on the volume side. If you could just highlight how is the demand scenario looking and what kind of volume growth we could look at on the aluminum side?
While the world is very excited about this green metal and the demand is going to grow. Rahul over to you for the detailed information from your side.
Yeah. No, thanks for the question. I think aluminum is a, you know, strategic metal, we know that this calendar year, CY 2022, primary demand was 70 million, we see that it is going to be a CAGR of 4%-5% as a growth, which is likely to happen. If I talk about India per se, India demand, if we see that, you know, on the backdrop of 17% YoY growth has been seen in the last nine months. We see that the demand for the country, especially for India last year was 3.9 million, and this year it's going to touch 4.5 million.
We can see that there is a very strong demand, especially India is, you know, demand has been increased in electrical and power sector. Other factor also, China is coming back and, you know, we see that China is also growing 4.4% year-on-year growth. Overall demand is quite robust and strong, and that's what, I think as we on the line, same line, we are also looking to expand our capacity from, you know, 2.3 million- 2.8 million, then we're taking up to 3 million.
Sure. Also, sir, on realization, you know, how do you see the realization moving now, going forward? Because, you know, the prices have started to go up. Just your thoughts on that, from a near to medium term perspective.
Go ahead, Rahul.
Yeah. Again, you know, from price point of view, I can only say that, you know, key indicator which drives the growth, and I have said few, but important is that I think, China removal of COVID related restriction, that's one. Second is India, which I have already spoken. Third is that U.S. inflation dropped by 6.5% in December probably there was 7.1% in November. U.S. dollar index also dropped, you know, from 110 points to 102. Other side, if I see that, you know, the kind of production cut, which is 2.5 million in China and 1 million in Europe.
There is also, if you see the inventory level, which is I think the lowest since 2002, is INR 1.4 million. All the indicators you see that that is a very strong indicator to, you know, to have the better level from the current, which was maybe has gone to INR 2,200 kind of alumina. I would only say, you know, on that point.
Sure. Just last question. This you mentioned during the call that, you know, the iron ore after this export ban removal is just the exports are picking up. Has it normalized now, or it will still take one quarter?
No, the export, last quarter, you see when the ban was removed and, we took a conscious call of slowing down the domestic sale because there'll be a, there is a, increase of, EBITDA by around $8-$10 per ton. As we speak, we have been able to, you know, move some shipments already. I feel that the from the current month it will the dispatch and the sale would come up to the normal level. That means around 6 million tons, from 0.6 million tons, this month itself it will take. That is what the story. Although, we still will have some inventory at the end of this month, which we'll be able to capitalize in the current quarter.
Got it. Got it. Thank you, sir. That's all from my side. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumant Kumar from Antique Stockbroking Limited. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. I had a small question. Could you please elaborate on the amount of hedging gains specifically that we had in this quarter? If at all some portion we have that can come in in Q4.
Yeah, sure. The hedging gain in the third quarter is almost INR 475 crore . If you look at maybe for the first nine months, in fact almost touching INR 3,000 crore . The number exactly is INR 2,905 crore . Almost INR 3,000 crore for the full nine months and 475 crore INR for third quarter. The quantum of hedge impact is a tad low for the fourth quarter, we also can evaluate taking further hedge specifically in aluminum side. Right now, if you look at the mark to market for the quantity hedged, the gain is almost still about 550 million-1 million for the fourth quarter. The answer to your question is specifically the INR 475 crore for third quarter.
Okay. Sure, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Sandeep Agrawal for closing comments. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Thanks, everyone.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Vedanta Limited, that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.