Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to VRL Logistics Q1 FY 2027 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Mukesh Saraf from Avendus Spark. Thank you, Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Huda. Good morning, everyone. Mukesh Saraf here from Avendus Spark. Appreciate everybody logging in to this Q1 FY 2027 earnings call of VRL Logistics. From the management team, I'm pleased to host Mr. Sunil Nalavadi, CFO of VRL Logistics. I'll now hand over the call to Mr. Nalavadi for his opening remarks, for which we'll take the Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you, Mr. Mukesh. Good morning to all participants. I'm Sunil Nalavadi, CFO of VRL Logistics. I welcome all of you once again for the earnings conference call for the Q1 of financial year 2027. On the onset, I would like to inform you that we have completed 50 years of service in the logistics industry. Our promoter, Dr. Vijay Sankeshwar, started this company in the year 1976 with self-driven single vehicle with one route. Today, the company's operating with 6,000 owned vehicles, along with the hired vehicles as well. Today, the operations of the company spreads across 23 states and five union territories, with around 1,300 branch network. We cater to all the commodity segments with 10 lakh+ customers base.
Growth of the company was accelerated after Sri Anand Sankeshwar joined as Managing Director. Along with the rich experience and expertise of the promoters, there is an immense contribution from the team VRL, including the experienced staff, drivers, loading, unloading staff, et cetera. We are very much thankful to all the shareholders who have supported us Also to the many individual institutions who supported us either directly or indirectly during this journey. I hope everyone has had an opportunity to review our press release and the earnings presentation, which has been circulated through the exchanges.
To highlight about the financial performance of the company, this financial year started with a new benchmark in performance with a historic start by achieving the highest-ever profit for the quarter of INR 81 crore. For our business, the current quarter was a very challenging period on account of risk posed by the current geopolitical developments and potential thereof to cause volatility in crude oil prices, which resulted into drastic increase in fuel rates and other input costs. The fuel is one of the major costs of operation for our business, and the cost is increased due to increase in the fuel rates and also due to losing the benefit of bulk purchase opportunity during the quarter. The effective decision-making and its implementation process of the company proven that the increase in cost has been passed on to the customers without any impact on the growth in volumes.
On year-on-year basis, the revenue of this quarter is increased from INR 751 crore to INR 885 crore with a growth of around 18%. The growth in revenue is mainly on account of increase in freight rates across all the commodities and geographies, due to which the realization of freight per ton increased by 9% from INR 7,852 per ton to INR 8,546 per ton. The growth in revenue is also on account of growth in volumes by 9%, from 935,000 metric tons to 1,019,000 metric tons. The growth in volumes is from enhancement in our branch network in goods transportation business. Year-on-year basis, we added around 108 branches, and we continued our initiative to increase the number of branches in current quarter also and added around 16 new branches. Due to the enhancement in our branch network, we also gained with many new customers.
We also recovered the tonnage from the lost customers who have discontinued with us earlier due to freight rate rationalization and discontinuation of some of the contracts due to low margins. Please note that the lost customers are coming back to us with our current freight rate and the current applicable terms. We also gained volumes by addition of new contractual customers during the quarter. The EBITDA has increased by around 22%, from INR 158 crore to INR 193 crore, and percentage to revenue is increased by 71 basis points from 21.1% to 21.8%. We successfully maintained the optimum level of EBITDA in the current quarter despite the challenge on the increase in fuel costs. The fuel procurement cost per liter is increased from INR 83 to INR 94. However, we mitigated the risk by increasing the freight rate effectively with a growth in volumes.
The volume growth with increased freight rates has resulted into no increase in other costs as a percentage to the revenue except some increase in vehicle running repair expenses due to increase in driver incentive and also some increase in vehicle hire charges. The improvement in EBITDA leads to increase in EBIT and PAT margins in the current quarter. The PAT of the company is increased to INR 81 crore from INR 50 crore, and percentage to revenue is increased to 9% from 6.7%. On a sequential basis, we have seen further improvements in terms of revenue growth and improvements in margins. The revenues increased from INR 859 crore to INR 885 crore, and growth in revenues contributed by increase in the freight realization per ton by almost 5%. There is some contraction in volumes by 1.73% in the quarter due to seasonal demand moderation.
The EBITDA margin is improved by 36 basis points from 21.4% to 21.8%, mainly driven by increasing in the freight realization. Further, our business is a B2B less than truckload business with a customer base of 10 lakh+ customers covering with wide range of sectors. Our key strength is having the different mode of collections from customers and 85% of our less than truckload business is on paid and to pay basis, collecting the freight on spot from the customers immediately after the booking or completion of the service. Our receivable days from the customer is hardly around 10-12 days and which is lowest in the industry. The higher profits resulted into increase in cash flows from operations.
The cash flow of the company have been effectively utilized for the purpose of capital expenditure to the tune of INR 76 crore in the current quarter, mainly for the purpose of addition of commercial vehicles of INR 18 crore, and INR 49 crore is utilized for the purchase of land and building facilities in the critical locations of our operations. The remaining surplus cash flow resulted into reduction in net debt from INR 440 crore as of 31st March to INR 391 crore as of quarter end. Considering the substantial improvements in the profits and the free cash flows of the company, the board has approved the buyback of shares by the company to the tune of INR 280 crore with a per share value of INR 320, which is much higher than the current market price.
The promoters of the company are not participating in this buyback. This buyback process is subject to the shareholders' approval. The fleet rationalization continues with older vehicles being scrapped and utilization of own assets improving. Around 79% of our fleet is debt free and 13% is fully depreciated, providing strong operating leverage. Our strategic priorities remain unchanged: profitable volume growth, disciplined cost management and healthy working capital control. Looking ahead, while near term macro uncertainties persist, we remain optimistic, improving demand conditions, stronger market initiatives, fleet rationalization and expansion in under-penetrated geographies, which position us well to drive gradual volume recovery while sustaining the profitability. With this, I would like to conclude initial remarks. Now I request to the participants to open for question and answers. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is on the line of Alok Deora from Motilal Oswal. Please proceed.
Hi, sir. Good morning and congratulations on really good numbers. Sir, just had a couple of questions. First is, how much price hike we have taken during the quarter. I mean, the blended realization comes to 9%, but in terms of have we taken like a proper hike or it's been more tactical or short term in nature due to shortage or diesel cost increase? Or it's like we have taken a general price increase, what it is called in the market. Have we taken that kind of price increase which will sustain or it's more of a short term in nature? First question is that. Second, on the volume also, despite the low margin customers being out of the system, volume growth trajectory has been very strong at around 9%. Just any thoughts on that, how that could shape up going ahead?
Was it because of also a low base or whether this 9%-10% should be the new normal?
First thing on the freight rates, just I want to give clarity that for Q1 FY2026, our realization was around INR 7,852, and in Q4, we reached to around INR 8,147 per metric ton. During the year, within the last financial year, there is an improvement in realization by around 4%. From Q4 to Q1, last quarter to this quarter, there is an improvement of 5%. Both put together, there is a 9% growth in the realization. Means the freight rate hike what we carried out during the current quarter is around 5%. Effectively, it has been increased in the realization. See, when the crude oil price started increasing at the beginning of the year, say in the month of April end or beginning of the May. By that time, actually, our bulk purchase has been completely stopped.
To pass on that additional cost, we did some rate increase during that time. Subsequently, when government increased the fuel rates, again, we carried out some increase in rates. Effectively all put together in a quarter, there is an increase of freight rate by around 5%. This is a sustainable increase in freight rates. In some of the contractual customers, obviously it is related to the fuel price. Going forward, if any decline in the fuel rates, then obviously we have to reduce some of the rates and effectively the reduction will be in the rate of around 2%-3%, not beyond that.
Okay
When it comes to about the rate increase.
Yeah. What you're basically saying is that the INR 8,500 per ton, that should kind of continue.
Yes.
The growth rate of 9% will go down in terms of growth rate by end of this year to more like a 4%- 5%.
No, only when fuel price will reduce.
Okay. No, I mean INR 8,100 fourth quarter. INR 8,100 we have taken around 4%-5%, right?
Yeah.
Okay. INR 8,500 should be the new.
Now assume that if there is no decline in the fuel price going forward.
INR 8,546 will continue.
Okay. Got it.
Yeah.
Got it. Yeah, sure.
We are looking for further improvement in this 8,546 in coming quarters.
The reason is the increase in freight rates, what we did, these are all increased in the mid of the quarter.
Okay.
On a full year quarter basis, if there is no fuel rate change in the next quarter, if there is no decline, then this 8,546 will further improve in the quarter two.
Okay. Like INR 1,500 or so.
Yes.
Okay. Got it. Please on the volume side, if you can indicate what actually happened there.
On the volume side, see, basically one is we are opening the branches. We guided around 6%-7% increase in volume. We are expecting for a full year basis, but we performed around 9% growth in the volumes in the current quarter. That additional 2%- 3% again, actually, we gained out of the customers we have lost. We lost some of the customers, but we got the additional tonnage. Also we got the additional tonnage from the new customers. Otherwise, based on our branch network expansion and all, our expectation was around 6%-7%. That additional 2% is because of recovery from the lost customers and as well as some of the gain from the new customers.
For the full year basis, what should be the sustainable volume? Because we'll also go in second half with a slightly higher base.
Yeah.
The full year number should be more like 6%- 7% only.
No, full year basis, now the expectation will be around 8%.
8%. Okay. Got it.
Yes.
Got it. Just last question, sir. What's the CapEx number estimated because now we are also announcing buyback also. Any sense on the CapEx because we will be requiring funds for that as well.
Yeah, just I want to clarify on the funds requirement. See, currently we are doing the cash profit. The free cash flows in the company is at least around INR 120 crore-INR 130 crore in a quarter. On a full year basis, definitely this will be in the range of around INR 480 crore -INR 500 crore. Out of this INR 500 crore, the CapEx will be around, say, INR 220 crore-INR 240 crore, roughly, in a full year basis. Remaining amount will be utilized for this buyback.
Got it.
Even if we do around INR 250 or INR 240 crore CapEx plus buyback, because of our good cash flows, the debt level will not increase. The debt level will continue at an existing level itself. There are some time fluctuations, but at the end of the year, definitely it will reach again at the same level of debt what we are having today.
Got it. CapEx will be for the truck additions only.
Truck and some of the properties which are in the pipeline.
Okay.
In the current quarter, we spent around INR 18 crore on the vehicles and around INR 49 crore on the properties.
Okay.
On the properties, we may invest around INR 150 crore-INR 160 crore, and on the vehicles remaining around INR 100 crore.
Okay.
around INR 180
Yeah. When you say property, you mean the asset which you're currently maybe renting out, the hubs and warehouse, the sorting space, you would now kind of own it and manage it.
Yeah, mainly the sorting centers. In the presentation also we have given. Out of the 50 transshipment what we are having today, almost around 12-13 hubs are converting to owned hubs, the owned properties.
Got it.
We identified another three, four critical premises where actually we are going to invest.
Got it. Yeah, I think that's all, sir. Thank you and all the best, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to all participants, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. I repeat, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. The next question is from the line of Krupa Shankar from Avendus Spark . Please proceed.
Good morning, sir, and thank you for the opportunity.
Yes.
Sir, congrats on great results. Just wanted to double-check on the volume growth. You did mention that some of your customers have come back, right, in this quarter. Can you give us some sense around qualitative comments around what was the reason they came back? If you can further break up the volume growth. If you want to do it probably by new customer versus old customer or region-wise growth, it will be very helpful with respect to identifying what are the key drivers for your overall growth.
See the year-over-year percentage. This is about new customers addition. Some of the customers we lost also, but overall about new customer addition is almost around 20%. That is additional tonnage. We lost around 16%-17% of the tonnage because of some of the lost customers. There is an improvement in the existing customer by almost 6%. The difference is, out of the 9%, around 6% contribution from the existing customers and around 3% is on account of new customers, the net of the new customers. It may be because of branch addition, it may be because of increasing geography, so many reasons. That's one. Second thing is about geographically, again, South is contributing the major tonnage in our case. South on a year-over-year basis, we've grown by around 5%, which is contributing almost around 42% to the tonnage that has been grown by around 5%.
The West region, which is contributing around 25% to the total tonnage, which has grown by around 15%. The North is contributing around 21%, grown by around 10%. Remaining is around 10% contribution, which has grown almost around 22%-25%, especially the Eastern and Northeastern sectors, where actually we focus more on our new branches and all, and also base is small as of today. Overall the 10% contribution, which is growing at almost around 25%. All put together.
Understood
The overall growth is around 9%.
Understood. Given that growth is coming in more from the newer geographies, has there been also an increase with respect to the lead distance between the two destinations because the overall realization increase, if there is any increase because of NTKM going up. Some color on that also will be helpful. Yeah.
Yeah, definitely because of this new geography which we are opening, especially in the eastern and northeast sector, obviously the lead distance will increase and that will impact on even the realization improvement.
In the previous quarter, on a sequential basis, we have not seen any big change with respect to the NTKM or average lead distance.
The current overall contributions of the new branch, it's not beyond around 2%- 3%. On an overall basis, it will not be a major impact.
Understood. One question on the margin side of things. We've seen that Karnataka has implemented the minimum wage. Was there any impact in the first quarter to that degree, and is there any impact on operations per se because of this?
No, I'm not clear about it. Will you repeat your question, please?
We heard that there's minimum wage impact.
Yeah
especially which was likely to be implemented in Karnataka.
Have you seen any impact in this quarter from that?
No. The thing is that rule has not yet come. Actually, many trade unions and everyone has approached to the court to hold that particular bill. It has not effectively started yet.
Got it.
In our case, the impact will not be much. The reason is, we are already paying a good amount of salaries or more than minimum wages to the employees.
Understood.
Only thing, some statutory contribution percentage may increase, but overall, the salary structure or impact on the salary will not be much.
Got it, sir. With respect to inflationary increase on other aspects, of course, fuel cost is one big impact. Any other cost items wherein there is a one-off element or something which you witnessed in the first quarter?
No, sir. Such costs. Basically, there are two additional costs which have increased. One is the vehicle running cost, which has increased on account of the driver incentive. Always, we keep on paying good amount of incentive to the drivers to see that the utilization levels are up to the mark. Because the number of vehicles have been reduced, most of the vehicles have been scrapped in the last year as well as in this quarter. Compared to increase in tonnage versus what the capacity is available with us. We felt some shortage in capacity, and because of that, we engaged outside vehicles. There is increase in hire charges also.
Got it.
Apart-
Thank you very much, sir.
From cost, there are no major impacts. Yeah, there are no major impacts.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much for answering. I'll get back in queue.
Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Jainam Shah from Equirus Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Congratulations. Great set of numbers. Sir, the question is more on the long-term basis.
Thank you.
What we see in the VRL Logistics is that earlier, let's say one or two year back, we were mainly a volume-led company rather than a profit-led or let's say value-led company. Eventually, we have changed our stance and we have started increasing our price. We have started charging for some services which we were not charging. We have started passing on all the cost increases, that has impacted our volume. Now even at this higher prices, our volumes are largely back. The question would be, let's say for next five to seven years timeline, how do we see our strategy? Will it be value-led or we'll be balancing both of this or our focus would be on the profitability?
Probably at what juncture do you believe that this price hike might stop and will not be able to, let's say, grow the volume because of the price hikes? If, let's say, our strategy is this, what kind of margins that we will eventually target in this particular environment? Because our assessment was that this quarter might be impacted because of the higher fuel costs and of course the bulk procurement has already increased before the retail pricing. Despite that, the numbers were really great. How do we see next five years panning out in terms of pricing and the volume, and what eventually led to the increase in the confidence regarding the price increase, which is eventually leading to this kind of consistent profitability growth?
Basically, on the freight rates are concerned, the freight rate rationalization and withdrawal of low margin business, all these exercises we completed in the last year, actually. Whatever the relations are improved in the current quarter is mainly on account of increase in the fuel rate. Because of that, we pass it on to the customers and the customers acceptance level is very high. It's all because of the good service what we are providing to the customers. Second thing on the volume side, yes, we are carrying a lot of activities, basically the opening of branches. Just around two years back, our number of branches were hardly around 939, 950 branches. Now we almost reached to around 1,300 branches.
Basically we are expanding on the geography side, and today, every new branch, actually, the breakeven period is very low. Earlier it used to take at least around nine months to one year. Now, in five to six months, actually, the branches are reaching to the breakeven. The only reason is these branches are connecting with rest of the network, what we are having in India. That's the reason if any branch opened, say, especially in Agartala or somewhere in northeast or any remote places, all branches will support to that branch either way in terms of booking or delivery. That's the reason the network advantage actually it is carrying out and it is helping us to grow volumes further. With respect to the strategy of the company is concerned, yes, we are going to increase our network further.
That is giving us further confidence to increase in the volume. That's the reason we are guiding. In last call, actually, I guided around 6% to 7% volume growth. Considering the present scenario, present volume growth, what we are seeing, and on a full year basis, we are expecting around 8%. Considering these activities, even for next three to four years, we can expect a volume growth in the range of around 7%- 8%. Based on the activities what we are carrying today. About the freight increase is concerned, now all exercise rationalization, all activities have been done. The freight relation improvement or any change will depend on change in the cost. Accordingly, we will modify the rate and we will go ahead.
Because of these reasons, increasing volume of around 6%- 7% going forward in next three, four years, plus passing on the increase in cost to the customers definitely will support us to maintain the existing operating profits at an EBITDA level of around 20%- 21% is maintainable even for next three to four years.
Got it, sir. On the CapEx part, sometimes when we announce for a large truck acquisition and now we are doing limited truck acquisition and we are also doing some of the things on the third-party trucks. How do we see existing capacity can, you can say, manage the volumes, like let's say, 10% increase in the volume from here on our existing capacity can be manage those things or any broad number that you can say we are utilizing 100% of the trucks or let's say whatever additional volume we would be taking, we would be requiring the truck CapEx. How do we see that particular thing panning out? This is from the point of view of the CapEx part as well as along with the capacity utilization part.
Yeah. Now the existing capacity is fully we are utilizing at an optimum level. Now whatever new quantity we are expecting, the growth in the tonnage, definitely we have to add a capacity. That much of additional CapEx needs to be incurred. Otherwise, we have to engage the outside vehicles.
Got it, sir. Sir from the next three years' perspective, of course, our volume growth will be similar to, let's say what our CapEx growth will be similar to our volume growth. Apart from that, the trucking CapEx, are we looking at any larger CapEx, let's say buying out anything very large, which we have done in the FY 2026, something similar to that? Will it be just a normal CapEx going forward and we'll be generating good, you can say free cash flow for the upcoming years?
As I said about the CapEx, around INR 200 crore-INR 240 crore every year CapEx will be there. It is a mix of vehicles and the property. The vehicle will be around INR 120 crore-INR 140 crore, and remaining will be some adding of some property.
Got it, sir. That's it from my side. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Jain from Fair Value Equity. Please proceed.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question is why are we utilizing our cash proceeds for a buyback and not for further debt repayment, which might reduce our interest cost and further help the bottom line? My second question is, what part of our business is contributed-
Mr. Jain, sorry to interrupt, there is a lot of disturbance from your line. Can you please check?
Yeah. Is it better now?
Yeah, continue.
What part of the business is contributed by large e-commerce players and what is the outlook for this business for the rest of the year? Thank you. That's all from my side.
Sure. See, about buyback of shares, every year we are paying, rewarding to the shareholders, basically in terms of dividend. Historically also, we did around three times, we did a buyback activity as well. Considering the reward to the shareholders, instead of dividend what we were paying. Last year, we paid almost around INR 175 crore dividend, the cash outflow to the shareholders in the last year. Instead of that, actually, we are doing buyback in this year. That's one. The debt level, it's a very nominal debt level what we are having today. It's hardly around 0.3 x of the debt equity ratio. This kind of a debt level has to be continued, considering the growth and other aspects of the company.
As I said, about the free cash flow and other things, even if we do buyback and capital expenditure, the year-end debt, what we are foresee will not be increased from the current level. On the e-commerce side, we do not have any e-commerce business. There are some materials which are flowing through e-commerce channels might be moving through us, but we ourselves are not doing any e-commerce activity. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Devraj, an individual investor. Please proceed. Mr. Devraj, are you there? We can't hear you properly, Mr. Devraj.
Hello.
Yes.
Hi. Good morning, sir.
Yeah, good morning.
First of all, buyback. Just want to know that as INR 280 crore buyback, right? Sir,
Yeah
the bank balance with respect to 31st March balance sheet, how we will arrive, right, at INR 280 crore, or we will reach that amount by October 30?
Based on the further shareholder approval, once we decide on that particular day, that amount will be parked separately for the buyback activity.
Okay. In future, three months, it will be parked, right? Something like that.
Yeah. Already there is some surplus amount which is available in the company, subsequently, whatever internal approvals will come, that will be earmarked separately for the buyback funding.
Okay. Noted, sir. Thank you. Sir, one more question. Sir, you know DFC is coming up, right? Western DFC and EDFC. Sir-
Yeah
Can this be a headwind or it will be complementary to our LTL business in future?
Currently, our collaboration with railway is not much as of today. Considering we are continuously interacting with the Ministry of Railways, and even they are calling for a meeting of all transporters across India. We already completed around four to five meetings with them. If any opportunities, basically, what they are proposing in their existing network or existing infrastructure, they wish to provide some of the earmarked locations to the transporters. Say, for example, they have already started from, say, Surat to Jharkhand some place they have created a facility. They want to supply all this textile material, what the Surat material they are moving, it has to be through rail. Even we are continuously interacting with them, and if it is beneficial to us, definitely we wish to engage with them along with our activities or along with our transportation.
At the end of the day, it should be cost-effective and it should be beneficial to the customers also.
Basically, our truck can ply on the Indian Railways network and then it will be complementary, something like that. If something works out in future, right? Something like that.
No. The hub-and-spoke what we are talking about. The hub facility, actually, they want to facilitate in their premises. Whatever the local hub to spoke, the transporter will provide the service, but hub to hub, the railway will handle the commodity.
Okay. Sir, just that lease payment, right, in our cash flow statement. That is, we pay that amount to the lessor, that amount, and we get the trucks, right? Something like that we are going to be-
No, no. It is on the premises where we are operating. See, we are having the 1,300 branches. See, out of 1,300, around 40- 50 locations we are having our own premises, but all rest of the premises we are operating through lease premises. The rental payment what we are making payment to the lessors, based on that, the lease liability has been created in the books.
Okay.
That is in compliance with Indian Accounting Standard 116.
Okay. Basically, majority it's a rental for the premises, right? Or transshipment hub, whatever on the lease.
Yeah.
Okay. Thank you, sir. Thank you for the buyback.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shivaji Mehta, an individual investor. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Mehta, are you there?
Hi, am I audible?
Yes.
Yes, sir. Please.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. On the previous participant's question, you had mentioned that with the DFC, the hub to hub will be handled mostly by the railways, and from the hub to the customer location is where the road transporters will be handling that part of the volume. Just trying to understand, will this impact our margins in any way? Because the lead distances which we were doing earlier, that will reduce over time. That can have a negative effect, not only on our total volumes, but also on margins. Is that reading correct?
No, it is incorrect. The reason is we are accepting goods from the customer from booking point to delivery point, the end point. The arrangement with railways and other things, it is our internal arrangements for the movement of the goods, but nothing to do with the customer.
All right. Makes sense. Sir, also on the.
Currently what DFC is handling, it is all the big freight they are handling. Say like movement of iron ore, something like that. Which is not relevant as of today. What the Railways proposing, actually they want to integrate Indian road network with Railways. These are very initial stage as of today. Just they are doing on a sample basis in some routes. If it is beneficial, even we are fine with it. We wish to work with Railways if it is beneficial, both to the transporter as well as to the customer.
Got it. Just to follow up on this, sir, suppose we do a Ro-Ro service, which is roll on roll off with the Railways, does that impact our volume? Will that be a deflationary impact on the revenue? Because you will have to pass on some of the benefits, in terms of vehicle running costs, et cetera. If we in the future do a roll on roll off service with the Indian Railways, will that impact revenues? Just your thoughts on the same.
No. See, it will not be much impact. The reason is again, the cost will be more or less in a similar way, but only what advantage will be there, it will be a dedicated route or something like that. Ultimately, there are a lot of inflations which are happening, just like fuel price and other costs, even the rental cost, labor cost, everything is increasing. Impact of these efficiencies and all will not be much more higher.
Makes sense. Also you said you’ll stop bulk purchases of fuel from the fuel pump directly. Just what was the reason for the same, and going ahead, will we benefit from the same?
Yes. See, bulk purchase is directly related to the crude oil price. It has nothing to do with the government price, what they are supplying to, announcing the consumer price. Bulk purchase is directly linked with the crude oil, whenever crude oil price changes, accordingly, the bulk price will change. Currently, say, for example, the normal diesel is available at around INR 95 in one location. The bulk purchase price is at least around INR 15 more than the normal price. In this scenario, we cannot buy the bulk purchase or buying from the refinery. What it is happening, the government is subsidizing the difference amount and supplying to the consumers.
Okay. Got it.
When crude oil price comes down, at that moment again, this bulk purchase will come down. If at least around INR 2- INR 3 lesser than the consumer price, definitely again, we start consuming the bulk, consumption from the refineries.
Makes sense. Also on the Gulf War, whenever that comes to an end and the oil prices fall back to the normal levels, what kind of a price realization cut will we have to take, assuming a normal scenario?
Assume that now the government has increased almost around INR 8- INR 9 in fuel price, right, in this situation. Because of that, our increase is around 4%. Tomorrow, assume that there is a decrease of INR 4 in fuel price, obviously there will be impact of around 2% in the pricing.
Got it. Makes sense. Also one last question. Volume growth that you mentioned of 9%, is that continuing into Q2? Are you seeing that continuing, or is there some headwinds on that?
July, we already performed around 10% growth in the tonnage, and we are expecting similar growth, at least around on a full quarter basis, 9% growth is possible.
Wow, that's very nice. Just one last question, if I may ask. The OCF that you had mentioned is around INR 500 crore-INR 600 crore. Since the majority of your branch expansions are done and also a lot of vehicles have already been added, just trying to understand, will buybacks be more consistent going ahead, or are we planning some major CapEx down the line that you may have to put in some for that? Just your thoughts on the same.
Reward to the shareholder will continue every year, either in the way of buyback or the dividend.
Got it. Thank you. Wishing you all the very best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Nemil Hemal Shah, an individual investor. Please proceed.
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, I wanted to understand that road transport is a mix of maybe unorganized and organized sector. Looking at the industries that we cater to, what would be the mix of unorganized and organized players in the industry?
Even today, the area where we are operating, at least around 30% of the contribution is coming from unorganized operators. Around 30% of the industry is from the organized players.
Okay, got it. Do we see any kind of concentration in the coming years wherein we could see some kind of mergers or takeovers with the companies having a good free cash flow like us?
No, we do not have any such plans. Basically, our operating system, the kind of business, how we develop is totally different from the operators in India. That's the reason we are going more aggressively on the branch expansion and geography expansion rather than looking for any acquisitions. We do not have some good opportunities which will match with our business operations. We did that exercise, but unfortunately, the matching is very difficult.
Okay. That gives a good sense. Now concluding from what I can figure out is now since we won't go for inorganic growth in the coming years, the large part of capital structuring would be rewarding the shareholders, one, and secondly, growing our brand networks in the places where we aren't much penetrated into.
Yes.
Okay. Also, if I may put in the last question. The South, as you mentioned, contributes around 40%- 42%. Do we see more headroom in there? I mean, are we present all over the region or we still have a lot of headroom going forward?
Yes. South, see, we started our business from South, so that obviously we are having more contribution from South because we are already established brand in southern market. Now we wish to replicate the similar model in rest of the regions. In the western part, we established good. It almost now it is contributing 25%. North also, some good contribution, but still we need to achieve a lot in these regions. Like South, whatever we did, we wish to replicate in rest of the regions going forward.
Okay. Last question. Sorry to extend this agricultural industry aggregator is also a good contributor to our revenues and the volume. The recent El Niño impact on all that we are seeing or if the uncertainty is in the rainfall. Is that impacting the volumes in that industry and being set off by some other, or we are seeing a normal growth in that?
The agriculture sector is contributing around 10%- 11% to the total volumes, which includes everything. Fertilizers, the agro equipment, all put together. Currently there are no much impact, considering the lower monsoon, it may little bit impact in the coming quarter.
Again, that can be offset by sorry.
Since that's the reason, even though say 9% have been grown in the tonnage, on a full- year basis, we are expecting all put together, all factors put together, we are expecting around 8% growth in tonnage.
Okay. That gives a lot of sense. Thank you very much and all the best for the future.
Thank you.
Thank you. As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. Once again, thanks to all participants. Really, there was a good interaction and definitely there is a very clear visibility on the volume growth. On a full year basis, we are expecting around 8% volume growth. The realization we have already did good work and these realization, there will be further improvement in the coming quarter because in between we did. All put together, we will definitely have a good revenue growth in the coming quarters with the maintenance of existing profitability margins. With this, I wish to conclude this call. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Avendus Spark, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line. Thank you.