SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited (NZE:SKC)
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Earnings Call: H2 2023

Aug 22, 2023

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the SkyCity Entertainment FY 2023 full year results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one-one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one-one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Michael Ahearne. Please go ahead.

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

[Foreign language] Welcome everyone to SkyCity's presentation of our FY 2023 full year results. I would firstly like to recognize the traditional custodians of the land upon which all our SkyCity sites sit. Ngāi Te Āti Awa Rakai in Auckland, Waikato-Tainui in Hamilton, Ngāi Tahu in Queenstown, and the Kaurna people in Adelaide. [Foreign language] With me today in Auckland is Julie Amey, our Chief Financial Officer, and Callum Mallett, our Chief Operating Officer in New Zealand. We will talk to the results we've announced to the NZX and ASX earlier this morning and refer to the investor pack, and then afterwards have some time for Q&A. From a normalized earnings perspective, the financial year ended 30 June 2023 has been positive for SkyCity. I'm really delighted to report that the group's operating earnings are back above pre-COVID levels on a like-for-like basis.

A real strength of our performance has been achieving this result with a different mix of earnings contribution compared to FY 2019. We now have meaningful exposure to online earnings and have reduced our exposure to international VIP as key examples of this. The result reflects a full year of operations in FY 2023 without interruption. Also continued improvements in the way we are operating all of our sites. In the last year, we have made some significant one-off accounting adjustments, a provision for potential NZD AUSTRAC fine payable by SkyCity Adelaide, and an impairment of the NZD Adelaide casino licence. Today, I'm gonna focus on the underlying performance of the group. Some of the financial highlights on slide four include: Our normalized revenues have grown over 50% and are now close to NZD 1 billion in revenue.

Our normalized EBITDA was NZD 310.3 million, up 125% year-on-year, which was at the top end of the guidance recently provided to the market. Normalized NPAT of NZD 138.8 million reflects the result of the underlying operations of the business and is a significant increase compared to the NZD 9.7 million reported last year. While the NZD 8 million of reported NPAT reflects the impact of the Adelaide casino licence impairment and the provision for a potential fine payable by SkyCity Adelaide in relation to the ongoing AUSTRAC proceedings.

Notwithstanding some of the challenges and complexities that we've faced in the past 12 months, SkyCity has ended the year with a strong balance sheet, a relatively low level of gearing versus previous periods, and good cash flow generation that has enabled the board to declare a final dividend. I want to call out a few key messages, as noted on slide five of the pack. In the last year, the New Zealand operations have performed very strongly. This has been driven by robust growth in EGM revenues and a real rebound in our non-gaming revenues as people have returned to the precincts. Table games recovery has been slower, while in Adelaide, trading has been more challenging and there has been significant cost pressures. This has come from both general inflation as well as from legal and compliance costs, as we deal with an increasingly complex regulatory environment.

We've had significant focus on our people over the last year, and it has been really encouraging to see increasing engagement amongst our team. We've also made a number of key appointments to our senior leadership team throughout the year. Those include Carolyn Kidd, our new Chief Risk Officer, Shaun Philp, who has started this week in the Chief People and Culture Officer role, and the internal appointment of Greg Wheeler in the role of Chief Information Officer. Our strategy is unchanged from what we outlined at our Investor Day in May, with a number of areas where we expect to see progress over the next 12 months, which we will cover as we step through the presentation. We will also talk to the positive progress made on some of our bigger projects.

It has been a very busy year on the regulatory and compliance front, with our teams putting a lot of hard work into progressing some key work streams. In relation to the AUSTRAC proceedings, you will have seen that last week, SkyCity Adelaide booked a provision of AUD 45 million for a potential civil penalty and associated legal costs. Julie will talk more to this later. The current status of those proceedings is that we are working with AUSTRAC to determine the extent of any facts and admissions that can be agreed. To the extent that not all facts and admissions can be agreed with AUSTRAC, the court will identify a process for determining any remaining issues and any potential penalty to be paid by SkyCity Adelaide.

CBS, the South Australian state regulator, has been working through a process on appointing an independent expert to monitor our AML and host responsibility enhancement programs. We look forward to working closely with CBS and that independent expert over the next period. It's been a year of making significant progress in our AML and host responsibility enhancement programs in Adelaide. This is including upgrading our AML CTF programs, the introduction of new standards and processes, increased resourcing, and initiatives such as reduced cash limits. Host responsibility has also been an area of focus, with increased resourcing, a focus on training, and the introduction of a 12-hour continuous presence policy. We are also hopeful to receive approval for the use of the Focal algorithm in Adelaide, which is a world-leading bespoke algorithm that identifies changes in customer behavior. We've been using this algorithm in New Zealand for many years.

Now, turning to the New Zealand regulatory and compliance environment, where we've also been focused on improvement. We continue to review and improve our AML processes, which has involved a significant increase in resources. Enhancements to our host responsibility process include the next stage of facial recognition technology for monitoring time spent on EGMs and customer use of some of our ATMs, and a new dedicated host responsibility room in Auckland. SkyCity continues to work closely with the DIA, who undertake frequent audits of our business, including an AML audit that is currently underway. Turning now to slide eight. I think it's important to summarize the overall investment we've made in enhancing our regulatory and compliance resource and capability that I've referred to in the last two slides.

As mentioned earlier, we've recently appointed a Chief Risk Officer, who's working on continuing to expand our capabilities in risk management, AML, and host responsibility. We have significantly increased our headcount in the risk and compliance functions over the last few years, as highlighted in the graph on slide eight. This has seen headcount in these functions increase from about 30 in FY 2020 to well over 80 in FY 2023. You can see in the chart to the right of the slide that in FY 2023, there was NZD 18 million spent on a combination of BAU and one-off costs. In FY 2024, we have budgeted for increased costs in these areas. In addition, we've also invested capital in technology to help our host responsibility and financial teams to be more effective. Turning now to slide nine.

I think it's really important to acknowledge the important role that SkyCity plays in the communities that we operate in. We are very proud of the deep and extensive relationships we have with a wide range of organizations, only some of which are represented on the slide here. In the last year, there was NZD 5.3 million of grants that was approved to 122 different community organizations by the SkyCity Community Trust. There were also contributions made to support the recovery of communities affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the numerous extreme weather events in the Auckland region. We are also seeing good progress and success of programs like Project Nikau, TupuToa internship program, where we have onboarded 73 Rangatahi in the last year and expect to welcome a further 90 in FY 2024.

These programs play an important role in providing a path for young Pacific Island and Māori people into employment at SkyCity. This is helpful when contributing to the increasingly diverse and engaged workforce that we have at SkyCity, bringing a good mix of skills, ideas, and experiences, and is increasingly mirroring our broad customer base. We undertake a comprehensive engagement survey of our employees every two years. On our recent survey, our overall engagement score was 78%, highlighting strong engagement, indicating that our staff are motivated, proud to work here, and would recommend SkyCity as a great place to work. This was particularly pleasing, as this was a challenging period for our team, as it covered a period of obviously high cost inflation, a lot of business interruption, and numerous uncertainties.

I think it's no surprise that the engagement of our employees has improved as the performance of our business has improved, which I will walk through in a little bit more detail now. Referring to slide 12. Pleasingly, we delivered a normalized EBITDA at the top end of the range we had previously guided to. You can see in the chart at the bottom of the page, that Auckland continues to dominate the contribution in the contribution to normalized EBITDA. Turning to slide 14, and you can see a few of the highlights at our Auckland precinct over the last 12 months. There was the opening of the new Cassia restaurant. We also opened SkyBar, a world-class cocktail bar on the top of Sky Tower, and this is part of our strategy to refresh and enhance our food and beverage offerings in Auckland. Turning to slide 15.

Our Auckland property delivered a 150% increase in normalized EBITDA to NZD 252.6 million. The strong revenue growth across gaming was driven by EGM performance. The mass market was the strongest performing segment within EGMs, which was really encouraging. This is the core of our customer base, and it's proving to be very resilient. Table games recovered through the year with a stronger second half, due to increasing operating hours once more staff were available. The food and beverage performance was supported by the greater opening hours, which increased progressively through the year, while other non-gaming revenue received a boost from the increase in tourism, which was particularly evident in Sky Tower visitation. The revised operating model is allowing our business to maintain strong EBITDA margins, margins, while absorbing cost inflation.

If you turn to slide 16, you can see some of the momentum in Auckland by looking at the last three halves financial outcomes. EGM revenues in the second half of FY 2023 were slightly down on the first half, as the pent-up demand and constraints in the first half of the year were released. We also, as you'd be aware, experienced some adverse weather that impacted visitation. Table games revenue responded well to the increased capacity, with weekly hours up 12% in Q4 versus Q1, as an example. You can see that the last three six-month periods have seen a steady increase each time in the table games revenue. Breaking down the non-gaming revenue shows that the extra capacity in hospitality has seen a building of momentum, with growing demand from both local and tourism markets.

We're still seeing consumer spend at our outlets in Auckland holding up and being supported by various events like FIFA Women's World Cup. Margins settled in half too, to levels that are closer to the ongoing running of the business, with more normal opening hours and staff recruitment. Turning to slide 17, with an update on the Horizon Hotel and New Zealand International Convention Centre. We are well advanced in our planning for the opening of the Horizon Hotel in 2024. We're very excited about this addition to our Auckland hotel portfolio. Positive progress is also being made on the NZICC over the year, the opening is expected during 2025.

We're seeing strong early demand from conferences and conventions, look forward to welcoming a significant number of delegates and visitors to the precinct, which is likely to have a positive flow-on effect for visitations to the casino. I will now move to discuss Hamilton and Queenstown, you can see some imagery associated with the opening of the new restaurant, Shanghai, at SkyCity Hamilton. We also expect to open another Hamilton restaurant in the new year, further enhancing our entertainment proposition in Hamilton. SkyCity Hamilton reported normalized EBITDA of NZD 35.2 million, which was a record result for the property, driven by strong EGM performance, underpinned by the local economy, which has very little exposure to tourism, really a local, a local business. Hamilton has also seen staffing levels return to more normal levels over the course of the year.

SkyCity Queenstown also had a record year, delivering normalized EBITDA of NZD 4 million. The business is now consolidated on one site. We expect that to be our model going forward. Moving now to SkyCity Adelaide, where it has been a very complex and challenging year. The NZD 35 million normalized EBITDA was a significant improvement on the previous period, which was impacted by COVID. The EGM business had a positive year, with revenues up to NZD 100 million, up 34% year-on-year. This business outperformed the market and ended the year with an average of market share close to 10%. We still think there is upside to this. Table games revenue was lower than anticipated. This has been impacted by lower levels of local VIP visitation, as well as some of the enhanced AML controls, including the introduction of daily cash limits.

The non-gaming businesses, SkyCity Hotel, Food and Beverage, and Conventions, all benefited from a full year without interruptions for the first time since they were all upgraded. The EBITDA margin was constrained by significant cost pressure, including additional compliance-related costs, legal costs, labor cost increases, food and beverage input costs, higher electricity prices due to instability in the national network. Management remains focused on trying to offset these inflationary pressures by driving price increases and productivity gains where possible. Of note was a one-off compliance cost of AUD 8 million incurred in FY 2023, relating to the AUSTRAC investigation and subsequent proceedings and a CBS independent review, as well as implementing the AML CTF enhancement program. Over to the page on slide 22, you can see that the second half of FY 2024 saw some softening in operating performance.

EGM revenues came off a little, and you can see the impact of lower levels of activity in table games revenue. Hotel and F&B performance were positively impacted by some notable events through the second half of the year. The AFL Gather Round and LIV Golf brought significant visitors from other states. This highlights the potential of our Adelaide business when there are major activations in the city center. We have undertaken a restructure within the Adelaide business. This is establishing a number of positions, changing the operating hours of table games and projector, and implementing other cost and revenue efficiencies. These changes were effective from July 2023, and we expect a minimum of NZD 5 million annualized earnings upside from them. Now, I would like to spend a bit of time talking about our online business on slide 23.

The business for the year generated normalized EBITDA of NZD 10.7 million, which effectively flows straight through to EBIT due to no depreciation and amortization. The comparison of this in FY 2019 is zero, highlighting the change in our earnings composition across the group. Our earnings have declined year-on-year, as the New Zealand online market is aggressively targeted by offshore operators who are heavily marketing and not adhering to the current ambiguous marketing standards for New Zealand. We have continued to enhance our online offering with new content, and we will also be launching Bingo in the year ahead.

Online remains a strategic growth opportunity for SkyCity. We've had another year of significant engagement with a wide range of stakeholders seeking the potential regulation of the online gaming market in New Zealand. The lack of any harm minimization rules, plus the lost opportunity to collect a significant stream of tax revenue, are factors we believe the government needs to address. Our 10% equity stake in GiG has increased in value by about 40% since we acquired it, and we continue to enjoy the strategic benefits of being associated with this entity. Just some comments on our international business. As we advised earlier this year, we've made some substantial changes in this business over the course of the year. Results for this year are dominated by domestic Australian VIP play. We will continue to focus on addressing the Australian VIP market.

We have restructured the business, consolidating our VIP businesses into the Adelaide and Auckland properties, respectively. We have disestablished a number of senior IB roles, including the international sales personnel, and we've changed our customer programs. For example, we no longer offer credit or check cashing facilities. These changes in strategy will result in our VIP business being significantly smaller than it was historically, and we will stop reporting IB as a separate business unit going forward. With that, I would now like to hand over to Julie to talk about our financial resilience.

Julie Amey
CFO, SkyCity

Michael, Kia Ora to everyone listening in. As Michael has already mentioned, the group delivered strong financial performance in full year 2023, with normalized EBITDA of NZD 310 million and normalized NPAT of NZD 139 million. Before I dive into more detail on the group's financial performance, I want to first talk you through our reported NPAT of NZD 8 million and the four most significant items in full year 2023 that are reflected in this result. Firstly, since the NZICC fire in 2019, we have reported some very complex technical accounting entries. In the current financial year, these entries reflect the further refinement of the estimation of the extent of the fire damage and, of course, the associated cost of the reinstatements. The reinstatement phase of the program is expected to be completed in full year 2024.

This means that the project moves back to its construction phase, and the fire accounting requirements will also end. This also means that SkyCity's construction CapEx, under the project building works contract, will recommence in full. There is further information in relation to the project on slide 17 of the group's results presentation. In relation to our Auckland investment properties, as required under accounting standards, we undertook an independent valuation of the properties to ensure their carrying value reflects the prevailing market conditions at reporting date. The overall decline in the Auckland real estate market has resulted in a fair value adjustment at June 30, 2023. This will continue to be assessed in future financial periods as per accounting standard requirements.

You will also note the recognition of a material impairment of the Adelaide casino licence of AUD 46 million that the group disclosed on the 14th of August. This impairment is on the back of an independent valuation of the Adelaide cash-generating unit, in alignment with accounting standard requirements, and largely arises from changes to three key factors since the 30th of June 2022 reporting date. The first being an increase in the weighted average cost of capital rate to reflect the higher operating environment risk, largely resulting from heightened uncertainties in the Australian gaming sector that could have a future implications for SkyCity Adelaide. Secondly, and as referred to earlier by Michael, there has been a material scaling back of international earnings, and this segment of Adelaide's future business performance now focuses on selected offerings to interstate premium VIPs who meet SkyCity Adelaide's enhanced compliance requirements.

Finally, a slower ramp-up in table games earnings on the back of the trend we have seen since COVID-19, but more recently, the softness following the introduction of cash limits by SkyCity Adelaide in January 2023. Now moving to the AUD 45 million provision that SkyCity Adelaide recognized at June 30, 2023. This is a material item in our full year 2023 reported results, which relates to a potential AUSTRAC civil penalty and associated legal costs of the proceedings for SkyCity Adelaide. While the proceedings between SkyCity Adelaide and AUSTRAC remain at a relatively early stage, as a result of the court settlement and the proceedings against the Crown entities and the additional work that has been ongoing in relation to AUSTRAC's allegations, a provision has now been recognized.

The provision was determined after considering a very wide, very large number of factors, many of which remain highly uncertain. Estimating the potential exposure of SkyCity Adelaide to penalties and legal costs arising from the proceedings is highly dependent on significant uncertainties and outcomes for SkyCity Adelaide that are not yet known. Also of important note, there is no set court-prescribed methodology which can be used for determining the provision, and AUSTRAC has not yet provided any indication of the level of any penalty it will seek in the proceedings. Consequently, there remains significant uncertainty, and any eventual civil penalty applied to SkyCity Adelaide in relation to the AUSTRAC proceedings could vary materially from the provision that SkyCity Adelaide has recognized. To preempt the question, the timing of any civil penalty payment by SkyCity Adelaide is also unclear.

Also, for completeness, I do want to point out that the provision has a neutral impact on the valuation that underlies the Adelaide casino licence impairment that I referred to earlier. Now, moving back to the operational performance of the group, I refer you to slides 12 and 13 in the presentation, which summarize the group's financial performance, delivering normalized EBITDA of NZD 310 million, with a margin of 32%. As highlighted in our interim results, the group operating margin has come up slightly from the 33% for our half-year performance, largely due to the cost uplift that was anticipated on the back of the ramp-up in recruitment to support the increased operating hours. Of the group's normalized revenue of NZD 967 million, 50% was generated by Electronic Gaming Machines, predominantly from mass-market play.

For context, in full year 2019, EGMs represented 38% of the total group normalized revenue, reflecting the shift in the group's revenue composition that Michael referred to earlier. While table games are our second-largest revenue contributor at NZD 231 million, this was NZD 28 million behind table games revenue in full year 2019. Again, an indication of the slower recovery for table games since the COVID-19 disruptions. However, I will call out that, pleasingly for Auckland, the successful recruitment of table game dealers in the second half of 2023 has enabled an increase in tables' opening hours to meet the customer demand, and you will see the 11% uplift in table games revenue in the full year 2023 half to half comparison on slide 16. Non-gaming business segments are now contributing over 20% of the group's normalized revenue.

For context, group hospitality delivered earnings in full year 2023 that are NZD 16 million higher than full year 2019, being a year without restrictions. This reflects another structural shift in the group's operating model and the uplift from an increase in the number of outlets and, of course, Eos Hotel in Adelaide. Of important note, in full year 2023, Auckland's outlets, on average, operated at availability well below pre-COVID levels. This reflects a combination of the resourcing constraints experienced across food and beverage during the first half of the financial year, but also importantly, it reflects the heightened focus of the hospitality team on increasing the overall profitability and margins of the outlets' opening hours. Moving now to expenses. Similar to most businesses, the group is also experiencing high inflation, which requires close management.

There are many initiatives across the group to sustainably remove costs, improve operating efficiencies, and refine operating structures in order to grow earnings and protect margins. Some of these initiatives were executed near the end of full year 2023. I do want to call out manpower, as this continues to be the group's single biggest cost, representing 53% of the group's expenses. As Michael mentioned earlier, we welcomed a significant number of new people to the SkyCity Whānau during the year, which in effect translated to a full-time equivalent increase of 455 FTEs from the prior financial period. In addition, the cost of employment increased by an average of 7% across the group from full year 2022. Both of these factors have driven an overall increase of NZD 45 million in the group's manpower costs from the prior financial year.

Now moving to full year 2023 capital allocation. You will see from Slide 26 that while the group's capital spend of NZD 48 million was up by around NZD 15 million against full year 2022, this also reflects our prudent approach, given the ongoing affordability focus. Full year 2023 capital spend has been prioritized towards the more critical maintenance, refurbishments, ICT systems, and of course, gaming product to increase customer visitation and experience. We do expect, however, to return to normal capital levels in full year 2024. We are also very pleased with the strength of the group's balance sheet and our financial resilience, as you see on Slide 27. The group ended the full year 2023 financial year with a healthy level of liquidity headroom of close to NZD 600 million. This level of headroom helps to equip the group to manage its future commitments and uncertainties.

In addition, the group's strong debt gearing ratio of 1.5x at June 30, 2023, is well within the requirements of our financiers and in alignment with the group's investment-grade credit ratings. Before I hand back to Michael for an update on full year 2024, we are very pleased that the group's strong normalized NPAT performance and free cash flow delivery has enabled the declaration of a final dividend of NZD 0.06 per share, taking the full-year dividend to NZD 0.12 per share, which prudently reflects the lower end of the group's dividend policy. Back over to you, Michael.

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Thanks, Julie. I would like to conclude by making some observations around the outlook for FY 2024. Recent trading has been pleasing, and we are planning to build on the momentum achieved in FY 2023 into the current financial year. 2024 is a milestone year for us, with the opening of the Horizon Hotel, reintegration of the car park, which will bring with it significant earnings, and of course, getting ready for the opening of NZICC in 2025. We see a continued recovery in tourism, combined with improved staff availability as positive factors for the year ahead. These could be offset by an uncertain economic environment, continued inflationary pressures. There'll be some opening costs at Horizon Hotel and NZICC, and further investment in risk and AML capability.

We do remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the year, year ahead, based on our revised operating model, which provides us with a certain amount of flexibility to manage the performance of the group as we navigate variable operating conditions, as we've done in the past year. Initiatives that we've recently implemented and are continuing to execute in FY 2024, will support our future earnings growth and mitigate some of the cost pressures. A good example of these initiatives is the restructure of the cost base in Adelaide. As a result of all these factors, we expect to see a modest year-on-year increase in our normalized EBITDA for FY 2024. Finally, I'd like to thank the SkyCity board, my senior leadership at SkyCity, and most importantly, all of the SkyCity team for their incredible and collective efforts over the past year.

With that, I'm gonna pause and look forward to Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one-one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one-one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question will come from Justin Barratt from CLSA. Your line is open.

Justin Barratt
Equity Analyst, CLSA

Hi, guys. Thanks very much for your time today. My first question just came around the EGMs. Obviously, as you've very much highlighted, a really strong result there. I just wanted to try and understand, are you confident that this reflects a new normal for the business going forward, or are you expecting some moderation in EGM play going ahead?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Good morning, Justin. Look, we're really pleased with the EGM performance across the group, and it's obviously our largest business and contributor of the group, so really important for us. I'd break it in probably into New Zealand and Adelaide, and I would say, look, in New Zealand, we had a really strong start to the year in the first half. Second half came off a little bit, but we, we see this is a, this is a new base for EGMs that we expect to grow off, and that's probably a trend globally as well. You, you see that in other gaming machine markets around the world.

In Adelaide, you know, the market has been pretty strong there, and our, our share about 10%, and as I said earlier, I think we, we, we can grow on, on, on that base.

Justin Barratt
Equity Analyst, CLSA

Fantastic. Just wanted to confirm, in terms of group compliance costs going forward, did you say that you, you, you're budgeting in FY 2024 for higher one-off costs in 2024 on 2023?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Yes, I did. Yeah, yeah. We're expecting in the current year that those costs, we budgeted that would increase slightly, and at some point, you know, we'll see the one-off costs disappear.

Justin Barratt
Equity Analyst, CLSA

Great. One final one from me. At your, at your one half 2023 result, you highlighted that you had voluntarily commenced a responsible gameplay program in Adelaide, and I, I was really keen to see some of the initial takeaways from that program in this result, but there doesn't seem to be. I was just wondering if you could provide us with a little bit of detail about how that program is going to this point.

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Yeah, that's it. I think what you're referring to, we introduced in our VIP rooms, mandatory carded across EGMs and table games. However, on a manual basis, we don't have the systems to enforce that yet, but that's something we're working on. We're getting very high, in the high 90% participation, our rate of play in those areas, so pretty pleased with that, and we'll continue. We also introduced cash limits into the property. Wouldn't appear that there's been any impact in our EGM business. However, you can see our table games business was a bit softer than in particular, our VIP table games business was a little bit softer. Probably the other thing we would have called out was the 12-hour continuous presence, that we've, we've introduced across the, across the group.

Justin Barratt
Equity Analyst, CLSA

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Wade Gardiner, from Craigs Investment Partners. Your line is open.

Wade Gardiner
Senior Research Analyst, Craigs Investment Partners

Hi, I've got a few questions here. Recently, extensive qualifications around the AUSTRAC provision. I, I guess I'm just wondering if we go back six months, you were reluctant to, you, you know, to, to make a provision, and it almost sounded like, you know, to, to raise a provision, you'd want some sort of clarity or, or, you know, around the, around the situation. So, bearing in mind the level of qualification that you, you put, what, what's actually changed there? And what have, what have the auditors said?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

I might hand this question over to Julie.

Julie Amey
CFO, SkyCity

Yeah. Thanks, Michael. Thanks, Wade. First of all, you can imagine we've spent quite a bit of time with our auditors on this. They fully appreciate the difficulty on there, but they are comfortable with the provision we've put, being very mindful of all of the uncertainties. What is different? We've been actually assessing provision since, actually, since we got the statement of claim. What has changed in the last few months is, is really largely around two factors. One is the, the ruling with Crown and the outcome of that, and being able to review the statement of facts and actually have a sort of a court ruling around that level of fine for those properties. The other one is, is how we're progressing ourselves with our legal advisors on our preparation for the proceedings.

Wade Gardiner
Senior Research Analyst, Craigs Investment Partners

Okay. You mentioned the DIA review. Have you noticed any, you know, differences in their approach, given, you know, given what's happened in, in Adelaide? How often are they in there?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Look, look, the DIA is a very active regulator and has, has been so like that for, for, for, for many years. They have, you know, Their history is they conduct, you know, frequent reviews or actually audits of areas, particularly host responsibility and AML. They have increased their resourcing over the, over the last number of years. And, you know, that we see that in, in, in visits to the, visits to the, to the property, you know, on a, on a weekly basis, you know, you'd expect to see the DIA here. And, and also in terms of the audits which they, which, which, which they undertake, which are, which are pretty comprehensive.

We just called out, they're, they're undertaking a, they have an AML audit, which is sort of a routine audit they're taking right now. You know, we also, look, I'll, I'll say we've very good engagement with the DIA at all levels of their, of their organization.

Wade Gardiner
Senior Research Analyst, Craigs Investment Partners

Okay. Just in terms of the car park, it's reported that there's a sort of NZD 50 million difference between your estimate and Macquarie's. What's... Where, where do the main differences lie there? Is it just a whack argument?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Look, it's, it's more complicated than that. I would say, look, we're, we're, we're obviously in court at, at the moment, and you know, our, our approach is, well, we want to get the best outcome for, for, for our shareholders. You know, I think the counterparty has been pretty, pretty, pretty difficult in this process. We thought we would have come to a closure by now. However, it's still underway. It's, it's really about the, the, the clauses, the, the, the interpretation of the, of the, of some clauses in the contract. You know, we'd expect, you know, we'd expect certainly in this financial year, and hopefully in this half, we'll, we'll, we'll get this resolved.

The car park is a good business, you know, that, that generates, you know, NZD 15 million-NZD 18 million of earnings, and, we certainly hope in the second half, we're seeing those earnings coming through.

Wade Gardiner
Senior Research Analyst, Craigs Investment Partners

Okay. Just finally from me, you talked about the normalization of the sort of the maintenance CapEx number. What should we assume there going forward?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Yeah, look, we're sort of, you know, as we've said in the past, NZD 80 million-NZD 100 million, you know, it'll sort of move on, different years. With a little bit of a catch-up, but NZD 80 million-NZD 100 million is where we think the maintenance CapEx sits for the business.

Wade Gardiner
Senior Research Analyst, Craigs Investment Partners

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Fabris from Macquarie. Your line is open.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Oh, good morning. Just the first question, I was wondering if you could walk through guidance a little more, I mean, with the comments on modest growth. Maybe you can talk about the expected benefits from the Auckland car park concession, how we should think about any contribution from the Horizon Hotel. I know you've made it a little comment around the compliance costs creeping up, but any further information on that would be helpful to help us try and carve out the 2024 guidance.

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Sure. Good morning, David. I suppose the words we use are, we're, we're, we're, we're cautiously optimistic, and there's a lot of moving parts in the year, the year ahead. You know, we see a pretty conservative macroeconomic environment, you know, cost of living pressures from consumers and so on. We're cautious on that. Then we see international tourism. You know, we're expecting a pretty good and strong summer of tourism. For example, in Auckland, the cruise ship market is gonna have a really strong strong season. There's a

There's some material one-off items that, in the year ahead, so for example, opening costs, pre-opening costs of Horizon Hotel, and also a ramp-up of pre-opening costs related to the operationalization of the Convention Centre. Then, you'll have the earnings, of course, of Horizon Hotel. I think, you know, we'll probably have a quarter of earnings for that hotel, but it'll take a little bit of a ramp up. It's in the following year, you'll see, obviously, a full year of the earnings materialize. Then car park, it depends on when the car park come, comes back to us.

You know, we want, we want to bring that to a conclusion as soon as possible, but realistically, it could be, it could be in the, you know, we, we may only have a half of earnings from the car park, but it's, it's, there's still obviously some uncertainty when, when, when that will happen. With the car park, just to give some guidance, the car park we'd expect to generate somewhere between NZD 16 million-NZD 18 million of earnings in a full year.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Got it. Just to be clear on the comments from the Horizon Hotel, with those pre-opening costs for the Horizon and NZICC, will that kind of mitigate any earnings benefit in that quarter? Should we be thinking about no benefits at Horizon and a bigger benefit in FY 2025?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

That's probably a good way of thinking about it. You know, when we write our budget, that they're the sort of, the sort of way we're, we're looking at it.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Okay, thanks. Just another question. Just thinking about the dividend, I mean, you guys have done a really good job around mitigating OpEx growth in some form. You're pretty much ex-CapEx. How should we think about that 60%-90% target range? I mean, once you settle the car park dispute, is there an opportunity to scale up towards the high end of that range?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Look, look, I think the opportunity, certainly in the longer term, is to, is to look at that. I think, you know, our board is being prudent right now, which I think is, is appropriate, given, given where we're at. As, you know, we remove some of the uncertainties and, we go ex-CapEx, I think we are to expect to, to see that increase, particularly as the earnings, grow as well.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Great. Sorry, one last question. Just with the domestic tables business, you know, it's still tracking below pre-COVID levels. Well, obviously, international tourism should be a beneficiary for that. You know, has there been a structural impact that may see that sort of not see as much growth as we've seen historically, and maybe it struggles to get to pre-COVID levels?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Look, domestic tables, and maybe I'll get Callum to talk a little bit about the, the New Zealand and Auckland table games business, which is, which is the largest one, and what, what we've seen there.

Callum Mallett
COO in New Zealand, SkyCity

Michael, morning, David. Look, yeah, absolutely, we are still tracking behind pre-COVID. Bear in mind, you know, it was back to 2017, 2018 when we saw the peak in tables, and even prior to COVID, you know, we were seeing some softening in tables. You know, we're pleased with, you know, how the last quarter of last year's gone and tracked. There's been a number of initiatives the teams have put in, and, you know, as Michael and Julie have covered, obviously, getting our open hours up has been a big, a big impact. We don't have our opening hours up, particularly in Auckland, to where we would still like them to be. You know, we're still recruiting in that space. You're absolutely right, as we see shoulder and peak tourist season come in, we, we would expect and hope to see that trend continue.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Matthew Ryan, from Barrenjoey. Your line is open.

Matthew Ryan
Co-Head of Research, Barrenjoey

Oh, thank you. Just with Adelaide, can you comment on the performance in the second half and where you think we are in regards to the impact of, of any operational changes that, that you might be making, you know, in the course of sort of, I guess, changes around AML and the like, that you're, that you're looking at?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Good morning, Matt. Look, what I would say, obviously, the second half was softer than the first half. Particularly, we saw some weakness in table games. We also, you know, the cost base is something that we've been working on. We've actually made some changes to our cost base there that we executed at the end of the year in June. That is, with those changes, we've changed our opening hours, some changes in manpower as well. We would expect those to, you know, a NZD 5 million or so impact to our earnings going forward.

I think it's also fair to say, over the course of the year, we have implemented more significant controls and processes from an AML point of view. I'd expect that business has rebased, particularly the table games business rebase, and we'd expect to see it start to grow from here over time.

Matthew Ryan
Co-Head of Research, Barrenjoey

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one-one. Our next question will come from Mark Robertson, from Forsyth Barr. Your line is open.

Mark Robertson
Equity Research Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Yeah, morning, guys. Just a question, I guess, along the lines of where Matt was going, around this new tables sort of trial or what is now permanent in Adelaide. Is there any thought about rolling that out across more of the group, either the New Zealand properties or maybe into EGMs around the cash limits on gaming? Further to that, you've talked about this NZD 5 million of cost savings. What's the ability in terms of cost savings in New Zealand?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

look, we, we are, we're looking at, you know, things across the group, in terms of how we can operate with synergies and where we can take best practice from one part of the business to the other part of the business. Right now, we're not, in terms of the specific cash limits that we have in Adelaide, we're, we're not, we're not applying those. We have, we have a separate set of controls and cash limits in Auckland, as an example. However, you know, in the long term, we are looking at mandatory carded play, as an example. That's something that we're, we're committed to.

We want, I think, on cash limits, and that's specific, what's key is that we introduce really good cash technology, the ability, cashless technology that allows customers to seamlessly transfer funds to us in a cashless basis. That's work that we'll be doing, but that's gonna take a number, a number of years to deliver. That's what I'll call out. I think there's other things. For example, in Auckland, we have very advanced facial recognition technology in place, but we don't have that in Adelaide yet. We're working with the regulator to get approval to put that in place. That's the first question.

In terms of cost savings in the business, I would say, look, right across the group, we're always looking at how we operate our business and what's the optimal model for us. Whether that's opening hours in restaurants, operating hours in our casinos, and they've actually changed many times over the course of the year. We think of it in terms of the margin that we're targeting for each business. We're pretty pleased with the margin that we got, I think in the Auckland business was around 43% or so, when I think of it.

You know, a lot of work goes actually into the initiative to deliver that. I don't know, Callum, did you wanna, do you wanna make any additional comment there?

Callum Mallett
COO in New Zealand, SkyCity

Yeah, just, just to echo what Michael Ahearne said, you know, we've, we've put in a number of operational changes across the New Zealand facilities since COVID. We've learned a lot from COVID. The old saying, Don't, don't waste a pandemic. You know, whether that is the operating hours, right through to the automation that we've spoken to many on this call about before. You know, to answer your question, Mark Robertson, we're constantly looking at our, at our model, and constantly trying to protect margin.

Mark Robertson
Equity Research Analyst, Forsyth Barr

That's awesome. If we just talk about FY 2024 guidance, if we were to remove the uncertainty around the timing of those additional revenue streams in terms of Horizon Hotel, and the car park, the underlying business, where do you see that performing? Is it a case of solid New Zealand outstrips soft Australia, or, or sort of how does the underlying business move there?

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Look, unfortunately, I can't remove them from the, from our, our future. But look, I, I think cautiously optimistic is how, the right way to characterize how we're, we're, we're, we're thinking of the, the, the, the year ahead. Like, if I take a more longer-term view, you know, we see lots of upside, particularly in our Auckland business, which once we're through Horizon opening, Convention Centre opening, the CRL, which will be opening probably 26 here in Auckland. You know, there's a lot of really pretty structural things that are, that, that will be, help the, the Auckland business in, in particular.

Mark Robertson
Equity Research Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Awesome. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd now like to hand it back for closing remarks.

Michael Ahearne
CEO, SkyCity

Look, just thank you, everybody, for the call, and over the course of the next, the next couple of weeks, look forward to engaging, engaging with you all.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

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