I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Grant Webster, Chief Executive. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Amy. Appreciate that introduction. Thank you all for your attendance. As always, it really is appreciated. I have here with me today Ollie Farnsworth, Steven Hall, and Amir Ansari. You know their, their roles, and they will jump in as appropriate. Ollie will be sharing the presentation with me as we go through, and then look forward to the inevitable Q&A at the end, which we will leave plenty of time for. I just wanted to start with the presentation with some key messages that we wanted to get across today, and really, the summary of the position of THL from my perspective. We do feel that we're in a positive place. The core of the business, the rentals activity, has been strong in the half, and we've got a strong outlook in all regions, putting the USA slide at this point in time.
Sales has clearly been our drag over the last couple of years, and it declined at a pretty rapid rate in volumes over the last three years. We feel that we've broadly got under that, and we're seeing some degree of stabilization. The gross margin rate movement in the half should really be compared to the previous half rather than the prior corresponding period, to see that the trends are actually reasonably consistent. We have done what we said we would do and in the controllable areas that we have able to, or that we have within our control, sorry. We have debt well down, and we're forecasting to be under NZD 400 million, with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of under two by year-end. When you take all of that into account, you have to look pretty positively into FY 2027.
We always said that this year was going to be a transition year. Let's get into it. The key stats. That 11% increase in services revenue, primarily that's the rental revenue, inclusive of the USA, is a really positive move. The USA obviously not what we want, but other areas improving dramatically. The sales decline on the prior corresponding period was generally in line with what we expected. The rental fleet growth for the half, again, with what we expected, and we need to talk shortly about where that fits for New Zealand in particular, and an impact that has on the half one, half two spread. Our net CapEx for the year is in a positive position and shows that we are managing our capital expenditure in line with the expectations.
Our net debt, as we talked about, whilst pretty much in line at the half, is forecast to come down, and that reduction of NZD 30 million in January shows that we're well on track towards our expectations. We know the group return on funds employed is down and below our overall expectations, but again, moving in the right direction. Let's talk about the strategic initiatives. We said we would review key areas of the business that were underperforming and needed action. We have, and we've taken action. I don't need to readdress, relook at those in any particular detail, but I wanna talk about where we are moving forward.
I want to remind people as well, that all of these actions were well planned and well underway at the start of the calendar year last year and worked throughout the calendar year, and we're moving into that last phase now. For Australian manufacturing, we are still closing down the, the actual process right now. We're working through the last of our work in progress movement of our stock and equipment, and obviously looking to sublease that property at the same time. We will start to see the synergies of the two businesses combining into New Zealand over the coming year, and that will obviously flow through as a benefit as the rotation of fleet occurs over the coming years. Australian retail, we've got a new motorized product range coming out shortly, which we're very excited about.
We see both volume and margin opportunity with that product.
One moment, please. You've been reconnected. Please continue.
Okay. My apologies, everybody. I'm not quite sure what happened. We do have backup connections and so forth, we seem to, we seem to lose connection for some reason, and that was before we got into any difficult Q&A. I assure you, it wasn't us avoiding anything from our end. Right, let's focus on the capital discipline and ROIC improvement. I was just starting to go through the New Zealand situation. New Zealand, very positive outlook for New Zealand. The key thing is to note that we do have to increase the fleet in the first half and increase the costs associated with that to get the benefit in H2. Please, when you look at the New Zealand result, just acknowledge and realize that it's all about setting up for H2.
Our forward bookings in New Zealand are still well over 20%. We have a strong proportion of our expectation for the full financial year already booked. New Zealand is in a positive place. If we look at the January and February results, they are well on track with our expectations for the full year. We do expect New Zealand to have a record result. The sales of the ex-fleet are still strong, based on the lower priced units. You might even have seen in the results that I've purchased one in the half as well, 'cause we're too busy in peak season for me to take a crew hire. I'm now a proud owner of one of our ex-fleet.
What we have seen, however, is the higher priced vehicles out of the U.K., Europe, haven't been selling quite as well. Across New Zealand and Australia, it is worth noting the real depreciation rates, which we're very pleased with. Looking at Australia, strong rental growth in days, again, a positive forward book. We're seeing some good opportunity for RevPAR to keep increasing in the business. We've seen good utilization increase in Australia at the same time. The cost reductions in retail will start to flow through, and I think that's that will have a positive impact as we look through to FY 2027. It's important as well to note that within Australia, that the inventory is now at a really good level, down another NZ$22 million in the Australian retail business.
North America, again, we're getting funds employed out, which is a classic THL discipline. When we're not delivering the return on funds employed, we make sure that we reduce the funds employed in a reasonable manner, so that we can still get a recovery in the business, but we keep things really tight. Canada has had a very positive situation, with forward bookings up over 30%, and fleet sales have been positive more broadly in North America, although off lower margins. Again, compare those to the previous half as opposed to the prior corresponding period. The USA still remains uncertain. We do see, as I was saying before, good domestic revenue.
We do see good event revenue, but as with the rest of the industry, whether that be hotels, airlines, rental cars, or attractions and activities, international visitors from the core traditional markets are staying away from the USA at this point in time. The U.K. business, we note that it was a positive half, it's a little bit ironic, given that we've had the sale and divestment of that business. We do see that as a positive move for THL at this point in time. Those funds are obviously being used to pay down debt and will provide us with a better return on funds and a number of other balance sheet metrics moving into next year.
From a manufacturing perspective, the key highlight for the period is definitely the movement of the Brisbane factory to move that volume to Australia, which will start to flow through benefit in the reduced purchase price of units for both Australia and New Zealand for the FY 2027 period. You will note a lower margin on the internal product. That's just a pricing movement over time, as reduced costs start to flow through to the rentals business. Tourism business looks slightly underperformed, not a major issue. Mainly the Korean market to Waitomo was the key difference there, and on a CCS basis, we'll just note those cost savings that we're talking about. Moving on to improving fleet and RevPAR. Look, the positive movement in the group is the key thing to watch.
What we do note again is that New Zealand result is very indicative of the fact that the fleet is front-loaded to the first half. Right, I just want to move on to talk about vehicle sales, which we do see on a global basis as stabilizing. Again, when we look at the results on a margin basis, both per dollar per unit and percentage basis, compare them to the previous half, they're reasonably stable across the, across the different regions. We have seen... We've talked about bouncing along the bottom, and we still see that that's the current case at the moment.
What we would point people towards is the real depreciation rate, which is still at a very low rate and still reflects the fact that we believe we're buying well, selling well, and indeed have good quality fleet across the globe and the units that we have. Moving forward to the positive operating cash flow, I'll hand over to Ollie to talk about that and the balance sheet position.
Thank you, Grant. Our first half net operating cash flow rose 67% to NZD 40.5 million. That was driven by improved EBITDA and lower net CapEx. I'd note there an unfavorable working capital balance, balance movement that is timing based, and we expect that to normalize over the year. Looking forward to the full year, we expect to see significant growth driven by ANZ peak season earnings, fewer new fleet purchases in the U.S., no U.K. purchases, and the one-off gain from the U.K. and Ireland divestment. Just a reminder of our debt structure. It's primarily a syndicated bank facility, supported by asset finance and floor plan. There's ample headroom within that facility, but it's pleasing for us to see that net debt trending down ahead of where we expected in our strategic roadmap.
Net debt was NZD 493 at the end of the half, and is already reduced by NZD 30 million in January, as Grant Webster pointed out earlier. We're targeting below NZD 400 million by the end of the year, and that's supported by those strong operating cash flows I ran through before. The net outcome of that is a NZD 6 million or circa NZD 6 million interest cost saving into the next year. I'll also note there, expected gross CapEx of NZD 210 million, which is down year-over-year, and that reflects the lower North American purchases and no purchases into the U.K. From a dividend perspective, our policy is for a 40%-60% payout, distributing approximately 30% as an interim. On this basis, the board has declared an interim dividend of NZD 0.03 per share.
That's 100% imputed and 0% franked. That's up 20% on the prior year. Based on the forecast range we've disclosed, we expect the full-year dividend will be up around 55% year on year. We're also beginning to accumulate franking credits for potential use in the final dividend. Back to you, Grant.
Brilliant. Thanks, Ollie. Let's move on to the outlook statement. The first time that THL has provided guidance for some time at this time of the year. That range of NZD 43 million-NZD 47 million NPAT for the full year, we would note very clearly that that is impacted by about NZD 1 million with the U.K. divestment. Obviously, we're missing out on the high-season earnings from, from that perspective. That's on a net basis, taking into account interest and so forth. We do note that we've got that positive forward book in New Zealand, Australia, and Canada. The USA is still the key concern, both from a rentals and vehicle sales perspective.
Vehicle sales for the group are expected to be up on the second half of the prior corresponding period, which is probably reasonably obvious given the improvement in the result we're expecting. Want to just reiterate again that net debt number, and looking to be under NZD 400 million and debt to EBITDA under 2x , which we see as a very, again, positive sign of the capital management disciplines that exist in the business. Just moving on to the growth roadmap assumptions. We feel that it is important to remind everyone of where we're heading and why we still believe that it is reasonable assumptions that sit behind the growth roadmap. When we look at the rental days, they're definitely well on track.
Again, the USA being slightly aside, that may affect some of the timing. The core markets are definitely well up and aligned very much with the broader tourism expectations for each of those markets that we're operating in. Yields are definitely okay as well. In line with the general expectations, we would see it adjusting for inflation only, with no significant increases or decreases planned. Vehicle sales, we know, is a work in progress. However, when we look at our expectations for NZD 100 million and compare that to where we are today and look at the volume and margin plans that we have, we are still confident that that is heading in the right direction and that we can achieve those targets.
To have the kind of revenue that we need, we need that fleet around 9,000 vehicles and obviously being over 8,500 now, we are well on track for that. The net debt position, clearly we're well ahead, and we've covered that significantly today. Total cost and depreciation, we have given an orange light on that. Now, that is not because we don't believe we can achieve the numbers, it's because there's a different timing difference. Let's take these two key scenarios here. Canada and the U.S., just with the volume of fleet that we're rotating through, and the speed of that is slower than what we originally anticipated for the obvious reasons of U.S. rental activity being down. We do believe we will still achieve all the synergies. It's just at a slower rate before as we get there.
The second depreciation savings, obviously, will start to flow through for New Zealand and Australia as we get that leverage benefit of bringing the production through New Zealand. New Zealand tourism, again, just, we are happy with the current discussions that are occurring in Waitomo. We won't say any more than that. They're obviously confidential discussions, but we are, we are happy with the progress that we're making there at this point in time. In closing, I'd just like to note, we know that it has taken some time as the market in the RV industry globally has continued to decline, for us to readjust appropriately, but we have. We believe we're in a better place than many in the industry.
We recognize that FY 2026 is still labeled this transition year as the actions that we've taken and activity that is ongoing starts to flow through to an FY 2027 result, which we believe will be even more positive. Amy, we will hand it back over to you and open up for questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. The first question comes from Andy Bowley at Forsyth Barr. Please go ahead.
Thanks, operator. Good morning, guys. Sorry, good afternoon, guys. First question, just around net debt and fleet investment, recognizing that you want to target 9,000 vehicles by June 2028, and we've been on an accelerated reduction in net debt from here. How, how do you see the balance sheet navigating over the next few years? Notwithstanding, you know, a fair bit of uncertainty on various aspects of the business model. Can we or do we have to see investment, i.e., net debt increase, to get toward, back towards that kind of 9,000 vehicle figure? Or do you expect further pay down in net debt?
No, we think that the operating cash flow outlook is strong over the coming years, and that's gonna sustain the growth profile to get there.
From a net debt point of view, what does, what does that mean?
We would expect, it to be reasonably flat. You might, might see a slight reduction on it, but the biggest movement comes in this year.
Okay. From a net debt to EBITDA point of view, which you referred to in the preso, we should see, as the EBITDA continues to improve, that net debt to EBITDA fall further?
Correct.
Great. Maybe, you know, second question, in light of the fact that you won't talk about New Zealand tourism discussions, with, from a Waitomo point of view. In, in the context of the, the broader vehicle sales market, you know, I recognize it's challenged globally. You know, can you talk to some of the regional differences that you're seeing? It, it looks like New Zealand's doing a bit better. What's happening between Canada and U.S., recognize that the comments that, Grant, you made around the synergies between those two markets, aren't as, aren't as progressed as you'd like. You know, with regards to what you're seeing on the ground from a vehicle sales market point of view, please.
Yeah. Look, you, well, you can see in the results, but what we're, what we're seeing is global trends and then a little bit, we'll talk about the regions, but the global trends are definitely people buying cheaper units. We're seeing that trading down. That's, that's no surprise with the inflation that's occurred in the RV market broadly over the last four or five years. We are seeing people within that, they are shopping around a lot and looking, looking for a deal. In saying that, we're seeing inquiry rates are increasing and, generally, the consumer confidence seems to be coming back into the market.
When you look at and you see all the public listed results out of North America in particular and out of Europe, people are expecting growth again now, albeit at small single digit rates. 2.5%-4% is sort of the, the kind of the mark. Canada's getting a, a, an uplift on the basis that, you know, we've got There was a period there where nobody was buying because of the tariff situation, and we've got stock, and we've got stock that's well priced. Canada's at, at doing well from that perspective. USA, we're again, only just coming into the selling season from sort of April onwards, so we'll see. Early indications, the first big shows of the year have been positive. Australia is still...
struggling, and, and we're, we're seeing again the, the Chinese product, still taking market share there more broadly in the towable space. Motorized, it's still very much about Australia and in New Zealand, basically, as I said before, doing well on the lower priced units. If I was to, to give it a context on a global basis, it's definitely stabilized and heading to small growth.
Good stuff. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Thanks, Andy.
The next question comes from Vignesh Nair at UBS. Please go ahead.
Oh, can you hear me?
Vignesh, please, please go ahead.
Hi, Grant team. Thanks for taking my question. First one, just on retail vehicle volumes into the full year. Obviously been a sort of a fairly challenging time in that market. Just keen to get your view in terms of what the outlook looks like with potentially sort of continued high interest rates, especially in Australia and maybe New Zealand towards the back end of the year as well.
Yeah, look, on a New Zealand basis, it's not a material number overall, and as you can see in the numbers, we're making up for that volume in ex-fleet, so it's not as much of an issue. In Australia, obviously, we're expecting volumes to be down with Kratzmann's and Sydney RV out of the picture. The key point there is what is our overall loss in that market, and we're expecting that to improve. Yes, the retail market is still tough in Australia, as you've, you've noted the points around interest rates. We're coming into that with our new product launching in this half as well, which again, we're very excited about, and we'll be putting a lot of effort in behind.
When you look at all of that, we really expect Australia retail to improve, and again, head into FY 2027 with a vastly improved result.
Thanks, Grant. Is that, is that new product lower priced, and so sort of more suitable given the, the broader macro? Like, how, how should investors think about, think about that?
There's a range of products. We're starting with the definitely far better value for money. We're starting at the higher end with the fully specced unit, which is a larger unit, and it's got all sorts of different features to it, between solar and washing machines, all sorts of stuff. We're starting at that end just 'cause that's the sort of the premier product. It's the key launch point. But then, yes, we will end up with some newer units that are better, better priced, and certainly we're, we're happy with where the margins expect to sit across the range of that retail product.
That's, that's helpful. Second question, I suppose following on from the previous question from Andy, just on the North American business, obviously been a tough operating environment there for a little while now. You know, if that sort of trend does, you know, continue for, call it the next 18-24 months, can you sort of walk us through your thinking in terms of the strategy in that geography? And how sort of important it is to the broader picture, and how you think about maybe repositioning the business, if that continues to be a laggard for quite some time?
Yeah. I guess there's three things that I would say. The first one is when you look at what we've done over the last period of time, we're retaining a strong discipline on return on funds employed, and we will continue to look at any business on that basis and make sure that we have a pathway for growth. If we had to make really hard decisions, then we could and would. I don't want that to be taken as any kind of exit of North America, 'cause that's now what it's saying. It's just saying we're disciplined in our approach. The second thing I would say is we, and the industry, we've tested this across the industry more broadly, is we believe that return of tourism in the USA is a matter of when, not if.
When we look at the active considerers, the people who still broadly want to go to the U.S., they still want to go. When you look at what attracts people to the U.S., the natural landscapes and environments, plus the city escapes, plus all the theme parks and everything else still exists, so people still want to go. It is a, we do believe it's a timing issue. The third thing I'd say is that we continue to drive the business for improved profitability and returns along the way. So long as we're continuing to move towards those targets at the right kind of level, then you've got to back the business to, to be able to get to where it needs to at a, at a total return at, at an appropriate period of time.
A little bit vague there, obviously, because you just don't know exactly what's gonna happen. But we've been strong on cost out, we've been strong on capital out, and we've been strong on driving revenue where it's available. Again, Canada doing an exceptional job. Plus, we've still got all those fleet synergies to flow through. Hopefully that answers your question well enough, Vignesh, given that, you know, there are no absolutes.
Oh, that's very helpful. Thank you, Grant. Thank you, team. That's all for me.
The next question comes from Kieran Carling, Craigs Investment Partners. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi, guys. Just to expand on some of the other questions around the retail channel and Australia, you know, you, you've mentioned the impact from some of the Chinese product taking share in the towable segment. Just from a quick look online, it, it seems as though some of your competitors, like Snowy River, are offering Class C motorhomes on the LDV chassis at a price point that's about AUD 50,000 less, and, you know, has similar specs to your Apollo range. Just curious to get your thoughts on the impact of some of the structural changes occurring in that motorized segment in Australia.
Yeah. I guess there's a similar question that was asked at the annual meeting last year around that product, and I think if you go back and have a look at the transcript of that, you'll see the, the, the answers there, and, and to be honest, they haven't really changed. We, we, we're well across that product. Indeed, if you have a look at our RVSC in New Zealand, we have the LDV product direct out of China, fully, fully built. We are the, the licensee for that here in New Zealand. We know the product. We know the product well. We have different LDV product in the market as, as well. We've got new product that we've launched in the last 12 months.
I think when we look at it, we actually see that there is a place in the market for it. It is a different spec. It is a different customer mark and target market. We don't see it as having an impact on any of our particular range at this point in time, and indeed.
Okay, thanks. The next question is just also on competition as well. You're obviously seeing strong rental demand in Australasia, in Australasia. You know, based on some of the checks we've done, it sounds as though Indie Campers has expanded its fleet quite rapidly in New Zealand, and roadsurfer is looking to expand into New Zealand and Australia. Can you just provide some comments around how much of a threat you see, you know, the, the entry of those competitors being, and whether you think the return on funds employed in your New Zealand business is sustainable on that basis?
Mr. Webster? One moment, please.
Hi, Amy, are you there?
Yes, you've been reconnected.
Okay, thank you. all right, so again, not sure what's happening with the technol-
You're muted again, sir. One moment, please. Please go ahead.
Hi. Sorry, everybody. Still unsure as to what's actually been going on. I believe we still have one question to come. Kieran, are you?
Yes.
Still there?
Kieran, if you could repeat, repeat your question.
Yeah, can you... Yeah, sure. Sorry. Just the second question was on competition as well. Just in regard to, you know, the strong demand you've been seeing in Australasia, some of our checks have suggested that Indie Campers has been expanding its fleet quite rapidly in New Zealand, and roadsurfer is also exploring an entry into Australasia. Just wondering if we can get some comments from you on, on the expansion of, of those large global and, you know, global competitors into the, the sort of Australasian region, and what that might do to your sort of rental picture in, in this part of the world.
Yeah. From an Indie Campers perspective, I'm not sure about large increases in fleet. They've certainly coming off a low base, so maybe on a percentage basis. I think when we look at our market share indicators, we're still very confident about where we're sitting on a market share basis. Road Surfer have indicated many months ago that they might come into this market. They have not done anything since. There's been no indication of them buying product from anyone that we've seen, or any sites or marketing collateral or anything that sort of supported that. It'll be interesting to, to, to see what actually happens with that. I've note, you know, there are other competitors that have got publicly available information that they are loss-making in this region. We have some absolute scale benefits.
We have the build, rent, sell model. That's a good moat for us at this point in time as well. And we have very strong trade relationships as well, which is not something that those other competitors have, at this point in time. We, we're, we're confident with where we're staying, where we are today. We watch them carefully, obviously, as you do with any competitor group. No, we're, we're happy with where things are today.
Cool. Thank you. That's all from me.
The next question is from Belinda Moore at Morgans.
Hi, Belinda.
Hi, Grant and team. Just on the U.S., you're not expecting sort of to see any improvements just, you know, with the talk of all the inbound travel coming in for the FIFA World Cup and the 250th anniversary? Then sort of secondly, how do we think about sort of the full year for your Action Manufacturing and also corporate costs, if just given, I think there's sort of NZD 3 million reduction there. Thank you.
Sorry, Belinda, we've changed entry points again. When you said, are we seeing any improvement in the U.S.? Was that your question?
Just given, you know, the FIFA World Cup and the sort of 250th Anniversary.
Right. Yep.
are you supposed to-
Yep.
Are you gonna see any benefit from that, please?
Yeah, the short answer is no. Unfortunately, events like the FIFA World Cup, in an area like the U.S., the events are too dispersed for people to take an RV, and they create a bit of sort of crowding out around some of the hotel prices and stuff. We're not seeing any significant uplift there. There's some stuff out of South America, Brazil, and so forth, which is a little bit interesting, but it's, it's not anything that's gonna offset anything else. What we are seeing and what we're picking up from the likes of Brand USA is that the other activities you're talking about, the Route 66 celebrations, the 250 years, are improving that brand, that broader brand awareness and consideration.
It is a not now as opposed to never, is our view, but no short-term gains for calendar 2026 out of those events.
Sorry, just in case you didn't hear my two other questions was one around how we think about sort of your, your group support services and other costs on a full year basis, just given I think you're taking out NZD 3 million. Then also, how we think about sort of Action Manufacturing, are you still expecting a sort of a second half pickup, given improving economic conditions?
Yeah. Look, on a, on a group support basis, we are continuing to see, cost out programs coming to, to fruition. Yep, we essentially, run rating, those costs are, are about, about right. It sort of ends up around NZD 5 million for the full year and then runs, runs through nicely into FY 2027. Then you cut out on the last bit, Linda, sorry, the last... If you could just repeat the last question again.
Action Manufacturing.
Oh, yep.
I mean, it was obviously a weak first half, but how are we thinking about the second half, please?
Yeah, look, the second half for Action on a third-party basis, it's actually looking really positive. It, and on a relative basis. The pickup that you're hearing and sensing in the New Zealand economy more broadly is what we're seeing. We have got a good forward order book now on our third-party product, and obviously, on an internal basis, it will start to get the additional activity from the consolidation of the manufacturing side. We're positive about Action's second half, yes. Amy, are you still there?
Yep, I'm here. Ms. Moore, you have no further questions at this time? Okay, this concludes our question and answer session. Would you like to make any closing remarks, Mr. Webster?
That would be one of the, or the most interrupted, conference call that I've had in 20-odd years. My apologies to all that is still on the line for that. Thank you very much for your, for your time. Look forward to catching up with a number of you on a one-on-one basis over the next few days. We remain, as we said at the start, very positive about where THL is sitting and our outlook into the coming 12-18 months. Thank you, Amy. We'll close the call.