2020 Bulkers Ltd. (OSL:2020)
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Apr 24, 2026, 4:25 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Nov 8, 2023

Operator

Welcome to the 2020 Bulkers Q3 report for 2023. For the first part of this call, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question, please press five star on your telephone keypad. This call is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to speakers. Please begin.

Magnus Halvorsen
Chairman, 2020 Bulkers

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, to the third quarter earnings conference call for 2020 Bulkers. As usual, I'm joined here today by our Chief Financial Officer, Vidar Hasund. Before we start the presentation, I'd like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking matters. These assumptions are based on the company's current views with regards to future events and inherently subject to risk and assumptions, with uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially. And with that, I will start with some of the highlights for the quarter. In the third quarter, we generated a net profit of $5.2 million. This figure includes $1.9 million, which is the estimated final insurance settlement for the Bulk Shenzhen collision we had back in August 2021.

With these results, we safely maintain our unbroken track record of being profitable every quarter since we got our first vessel in operation. We again continued to outperform the Capesize Index. We achieved time charter equivalent earnings of $21,000 per day gross. This compares to the Baltic Capesize Index, which was around $13,400 per day during the quarter. For the months of July through September, we did make total cash distributions of $0.12 per share, and today we have announced another one for the month of October of $0.20 per share, which interestingly represents 2.25% of the current market cap for one month's earnings. And with that, I will leave it over to Vidar.

Vidar Hasund
CFO, 2020 Bulkers

Thank you, Magnus. 2020 Bulkers reports a net profit of $5.2 million for the third quarter of 2023. Operating profit was $8.2 million, and EBITDA was $11.1 million for the quarter. Earnings per share was $0.23. Revenues were $17 million for the third quarter, and the average time charter equivalent rate was approximately $21,000 per day gross. The company recognized $1.9 million in insurance settlement as other operating income in Q3. Vessel operating expenses were $4.9 million, and the average operating expenses per ship per day was approximately $6,700 in the third quarter. G&A for the third quarter was $0.8 million.

2020 Bulkers charged Himalaya Shipping $0.2 million in management fee for the third quarter, which is recognized as other operating income in the financial statements. Net financial expenses was $2.8 million, including interest expense of $2.9 million in the third quarter. Shareholders' equity was $157.3 million at the end of the quarter. Interest-bearing debt was $210.2 million at the end of the third quarter, down from $213.9 million at the end of the second quarter, reflecting scheduled debt repayments. Cash flow from operations was $7.1 million for the third quarter. Cash and cash equivalents were $16.5 million at the end of the quarter.

The company declared total cash distributions to shareholders of $0.12 per share for the months of July, August, and September 2023. That completes the financial section. Now back to you, Magnus.

Magnus Halvorsen
Chairman, 2020 Bulkers

As mentioned, we continue to show strong commercial performance, not only relative to the market and Capesize Index itself, but also relative to the results we're seeing announced by other public peers who do report and break out their earnings for the Cape and Newcastlemax segment. Of course, this, to a large extent, reflects the additional earnings power that our scrubber-fitted Newcastlemax have relative to standard Capesize. Moving on, looking at the market. The market started out, as we talked about before, pretty normally this year, with seasonal weakness in Q1 before improving somewhat into Q2. We've had a year overall with quite good volumes and demand. Capesize ton miles were up 3.7% year to date.

However, during Q3, in particular, and we'll look closer at this later on, this was to a large extent offset by a significant unwinding of congestion. We've seen the market pick up again in Q4, and rates are so far this quarter around $24,000 a day, up from $13,400 on average during Q3. Then looking at our dividend or cash distribution capabilities, as mentioned, we showed some of our operational leverage through the $0.20 dividend or cash distribution that was announced today based on the month of October. We currently have all our vessels open on index-linked charters , i.e., no fixed charter contract coverage.

I think if you look at it, it gives you an idea of the exposure we have to what we believe is an improving Capesize market, and of course, the reason why we've chosen not to have any fixed exposure for the time being. Although a poor predictor of rates actually end up, historically, as a reference, we can say that the November to December FFA curve of this year is around $15,500 a day, and the curve for next year is around $13,900. Taking a closer look at what's been driving the trade growth this year. As mentioned, we've seen Capesize ton miles grow by around 3.7% year to date.

The main contributor is the increased bauxite trade, which is largely long-haul volumes from Guinea into China. That trade itself grew by 30% in ton-mile terms. We've also seen the iron ore trade grow by around 3.2%. There's growth both in Australia and Brazil. I guess Australia has grown at around 1.5% this year, whereas Brazil is at a higher run rate. So with this good demand growth, why hasn't the market been better? By all means, it's okay, but I think it's fair to say that Q3 was a bit disappointing, and I think you see that on the graph here on the right-hand side. We had a massive unwinding of congestion.

Here we measure it by the percentage of the Capesize fleet, which is in port, at a seven-day moving average. Of course, everyone knows that there was a buildup of congestion during COVID. We had the first round of unwinding of that during the period after May 2022, and then we've seen a significant unwinding now again, during Q3, largely. I think what we can take away from this chart, which goes back to 2027, is that we are now at levels that would be low pre-COVID, pre any of these disruptions we were witnessing for a while.

Of course, everyone who follows shipping knows that time to time you do get disruptions, and it's very rarely that the machinery runs smoothly all the time, and I think now, at least, this represents an upside risk to us going forward. Then looking at, of course, China, I would say almost contrary to the narrative in the press, of course, China is struggling with its property sector. Perhaps surprising to some, iron ore imports in China are up 6% year to date, and I think it's even more interesting to see that in the context of how they are drawing inventories. Inventories are now significantly, as you can see here on the right-hand side, below the five-year averages.

I think we have to assume that that does mean there will be a restocking taking place at some point, which obviously would be supportive to the Capesize markets and our market. Looking at the steel market, world ex-China steel output came in around 4% higher year-over-year for the month of September. I see this graph has been cut a bit too early, so we'll make sure we post an update of that one. China monthly steel output is still up year-over-year on an annual basis, although September, as an isolated month, was down 6% after growing in August. I think lastly, we are still very much encouraged by the outlook of the supply side going forward.

According to Clarksons, the Capesize order book is now down to 5%, which should be the lowest level in the history of their time series. We know, thanks to the significant ordering interest for containers and LNG, also to some extent, smaller tankers that we have seen over the last years, that yards have very limited capacity, number one. And number two, I guess Capesize and Newcastlemax are a lower margin product for them. So there are, of course, a slot here and there that can be dug out, but the significant capacity available for building new Capesize or Newcastlemax vessels really comes from 2027 onwards.

That, of course, means that, you know, we have a pretty good idea of what will come out on the supply side, and it's not really much that can change that. We expect 6.8 million deadweight tons to be delivered next year, down from around 11 this year, and around 7 next year. So the next two years will see muted fleet growth compared to what we've seen in the previous years.

We are not looking to order any new builds, but of course, we follow the market, and I think based on the input we are getting from yards and brokers, the pricing for a Newcastlemax with a scrubber today is very close to $70 million, and the yards are also tightening their payment terms. So given how cheap assets are in the secondhand market and also the valuation of publicly listed global companies, it does not really make much sense for any financial investor, at least, to look at new builds today. I think with that, we will conclude the presentation and leave it over to the operator for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now start the question and answer session. If you do wish to ask a question, please press five star on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw it, you may do so by pressing five star again. There will be a brief pause while questions are being registered. The first question will be from the line of Bendik Nyttingnes from Clarksons Securities. Please go ahead. Your line will now be unmuted.

Bendik Nyttingnes
Equity Research Analyst, Clarksons Securities

Thank you. I'm just curious on your market expectations, especially going into the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Are you seeing any sort of factors or deviation that could alter the usual seasonality in winter rate?

Magnus Halvorsen
Chairman, 2020 Bulkers

Mm, yeah, I mean, first of all, for those who follow us, you know, we don't, we never kind of predict rates or guide on rates. So, what's our job as a company is, of course, a big part of this job when it was set up, when we made sure we had assets that generate a good premium to the benchmark vessel, and we have a financing and operating structure, which leaves us a pretty low cash break-even. I think in terms of the dynamics of the market, the bauxite trade, as we touched upon, have become an important factor. I mean, it's now around 10% of the Capesize market, in ton-mile terms, up from 5 a few years ago.

That is also quite seasonal market, where the main season for shipment volume starts kind of late September, early October, but it actually runs into Q1. So it remains to be seen, but I think there is a decent chance that the increased bauxite volumes will have a positive impact on Q1. I mean, I think definitely Q1, as always, will be the weakest quarter, but, but with these bauxite volumes, it, it might help it a bit. And then, I guess, if your, if your question kind of is, well, why don't you take some cover now into Q1? And I think it's, it's really about the risk reward. Remember that, if we take coverage, we do that on the basis of the, the FFA market.

The FFA market, as mentioned many times before, is a horrible predictor of where rates actually end up, but it's relevant because that's where we can fix at any given time if we want to go fixed. Right now, the FFA market for Q1 is around $8,500 a day, and I think if you just go back and make a simple analysis, just look historically, I mean, what have Q1 rates been? They have, I would say, mostly been above that level. They have very rarely, in the recent years, been below. I can give you some numbers. This year it was $9,150. Last year, it was $14,700. The year before, it was $17,001. Of course, COVID was bad. It was $4,005. In 2019, it was $8,700.

In 2018, it was 13. I'm not gonna go through the whole list, but it basically shows you that if you're locking in now, you're basically locking in the levels that are the lowest we've seen for a few years. And with the prospects, with good trade flows, with increase in bauxite trade, and with few ships to be delivered, that doesn't seem like a good idea. You would be giving up a lot of optionality. So I think we have a constructive underlying view on the market. We don't find the FFAs that we could kind of lock in for Q1 attractive on a risk reward basis whatsoever.

That being said, of course, keep in mind that we have always safeguarded cash flow in this company, and if the market turns really bad, and we need to take some coverage to protect profitability, we have at least always done that in the past. I mean, we, we've never lost money for a single quarter, but we have certainly had quarters where we have been positive on the market, like the COVID quarter, if you will, Q1 2020, we had most of our ships open, and then rates went to $2,000. Of course, then we had the ability with the small fleet, like we have of 8 ships, to turn around very quickly and take cover. Of course, then you have a contango in the FFA curve.

So for now, we're happy to, to play it open, and I think the good thing is, you know, the market right now is quite good. October, you saw we were able to generate $0.20 per share in the month, and so far this month or this quarter, the rates have averaged $24. We're at around $20 today, so I think we're quite happy with the positioning.

Bendik Nyttingnes
Equity Research Analyst, Clarksons Securities

Perfect. Thank you. That's great follow. And congratulations on the strong October performance. I'll return to the queue.

Magnus Halvorsen
Chairman, 2020 Bulkers

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, Bendik. The next question will be from the line of Jørgen Lian from DNB. Please go ahead. Jørgen, you'll be unmuted.

Jørgen Lian
Senior Equity Analyst, DNB

Hello, and thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to ask about your results on the outlook in Q1. You discussed a bit that the FFA is around $8,500 a day, and then the potential CapEx commitments coming up with regards to drydocking. Is there any debt capacity to cover that? Or how do you think about the cash balance against those commitments in the time ahead? Thank you.

Magnus Halvorsen
Chairman, 2020 Bulkers

I think what we are likely to do now is probably I guess we haven't guided on that, Vidar, but I don't think it hurts to say it. It's not unlikely that we will drydock two ships during low season this year. And if you look at our cash balance, it is... There's quite a lot of buffer there. And I guess we were unlucky when it happened, but on top of the cash balance you're seeing and what we are generating in this market in the coming months, we will be receiving an insurance settlement quite shortly.

So we are, well, prepared to take those two drydockings, and then I think you shouldn't expect that we do anything until we get into 2025, and we have a plan for that. So I wouldn't think about kind of any change to the debt level or anything to handle that. We have a comfortable cash position.

Jørgen Lian
Senior Equity Analyst, DNB

Okay, thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you, Jørgen. As a reminder, please press five star to ask a question. There will be a brief pause while questions are being registered. As there are no more questions, I'll hand it back to the speakers for any closing remarks.

Magnus Halvorsen
Chairman, 2020 Bulkers

Yeah, I think we have covered what we wanted to cover. If you forgot to ask a question, don't hesitate to reach out, and thank you, everyone who joined, for joining.

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