Aker ASA (OSL:AKER)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 17, 2023

Fredrik Berge
Head of Investor Relations, Aker ASA

Hi everyone, welcome to the presentation of Aker's fourth quarter results 2022. My name is Fredrik Berge, and I am head of investor relations. We will start the presentation with Aker's President and CEO, Øyvind Eriksen, who will take you through the highlights of the quarter and how the industrial holdings portfolio developed. Our CFO, Svein Sletten, will then cover the financial investments portfolio and the fourth quarter accounts in more detail. There will be a Q&A session following the presentation. You may submit your questions via the chat function on the webcast. With that, I hand it over to Øyvind Eriksen.

Øyvind Eriksen
President and CEO, Aker ASA

Thank you, Fredrik, and good morning, everyone. We are putting 2022 behind us, leaving a year that will be remembered as a particularly disruptive period in human history. The war in Europe is first and foremost a tragedy for the people of Ukraine, but it has also been a reminder of the vulnerability of both the world order in general and the energy system in particular. Gone is the sentiment of the last few decades, marked by political stability, free trade, cheap energy, and liberalization, a time where business has trumped politics. Instead, politics is now trumping business. Aker is actively considering the long-term impact of a new world order. We cautiously observe the results of increased protectionism, leading to significant regional differences and investment climates. We are forced to make strategic decisions under unprecedented unpredictability. We do not know what the future holds.

At times like this, we turn to three steadfast pillars. One, Aker's method of work, playing to our strength and acting counter-cyclically for long-term value creation. Two, fostering collaborations and partnerships for growth. Three, protecting our strong balance sheet, which enables Aker to maintain a steady course through periods of market volatility. I continue to be impressed by the engagement and desire to harness the power of collaboration and drive positive change across Aker's portfolio companies. I'll get back to some of the key events in the quarter in just a moment. Overall, the sentiment as we close off 2022 is renewed of optimism despite the turbulent times. Today, we are also announcing that the Aker board has decided to propose a dividend for the Fiscal Year 2022, this tranche being set at 15 NOK per share.

In line with our policy, a second tranche will be considered by the board in the second half of this year. If the additional cash dividend equals the proposed ordinary dividend for 2022, the total dividend paid during 2023 will be NOK 30 per share at 4.2% yield to the share price and at 3.3% of net asset value at the close of 2022. For the full year, Aker's net asset value decreased 4.2% or NOK 2.9 billion, including dividend. The value decrease was mainly driven by a drop in Aker Horizons, which was down NOK 9.4 billion. This was offset by value increases in both Aker BP and Aker Solutions of around NOK 7 billion and NOK 2.6 billion, respectively.

In the fourth quarter, Aker's net asset value decreased 3.1% to NOK 66.9 billion, largely due to moderate decreases in Aker BioMarine, Aker Horizons, and Aker BP. The per share net asset value amounted to NOK 900. In the quarter, the Aker share increased by 4%, adjusted for dividend to NOK 719.5. This compares to a 7.8% increase in the Oslo Stock Exchange benchmark index. For the full year, dividend-adjusted shareholder return was -9.3% compared to a 1% decrease of the benchmark index. Aker's value-adjusted equity ratio at the end of the period was 88%. Aker's liquidity reserve stood at NOK 6.4 billion at the end of the year, which included NOK 1.3 billion in cash.

Aker's gross asset value decreased to 76.1 billion NOK in the fourth quarter, and with more than 79% of listed assets and cash, the portfolio remains highly liquid. Our industrial holdings account for 85% of our gross values. Aker BP remains the largest asset in our portfolio at 40.7 billion NOK, and continues to be an important source of liquidity, providing valuable upstream cash as we continue to invest in and develop our portfolio along macroeconomic trends. Aker has growth platforms in multiple segments. Energy continues to be our largest industry segment, with portfolio companies positioned to provide energy security short and medium term and drive longer-term energy transition. In parallel, we continue to build a portfolio of investments in other segments like industrial software, seafood and marine biotech. The fourth quarter marked the end of a transformational year for Aker BP.

The company is now fully integrated with Lundin, a merger which doubled its production and created a stronger and even more financially robust company. Highlights in the quarter include Johan Sverdrup PII starting production, contribution to new record levels of production for Aker BP of 432,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day, and the submission of a record number of field development plans that represent investments of more than NOK 200 billion. The plans underscore the company's ambition to create the oil and gas company of the future with low cost, low emissions, profitable growth, attractive returns and increased export of both oil and gas to Europe. Next is Aker Solutions, which delivers strong results both operationally and financially.

The company delivered substantial revenue growth in 2022, increased profitability and ended the year with a record high order backlog of close to NOK 100 billion, of which 60% is related to the activity package for the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The Subsea joint venture with SLB and Subsea 7 is progressing as planned. The transaction is expected to close during the second half of this year, pending regulatory approvals. Overall, Aker Solutions is positioning itself to capitalize on both near-term market growth and for longer-term structural changes in energy markets. Moving on to Aker Horizons. 2022 was a turbulent year for renewable stocks. Aker Horizons felt the effects of high volatility. We established Aker Horizons current structure in a different capital market. As the current energy crisis underscores, the energy transition is urgent, it will take time and require enormous investments.

Aker and Aker Horizons is responding to the shifting market challenges through careful strategic considerations to ensure a more robust Aker Horizons. Overall, the company's strategy remains unchanged with growth platform positioned for a long-term trajectories towards a low carbon economy. Next is Aker BioMarine. Offshore production volumes in 2022 have improved compared to previous years, and the total krill meal volumes for the full year 2022 were 19% above 2021 levels. Sales across all segments, including ingredients and brands in the fourth quarter, were in line with the same period last year. During the quarter, Aker BioMarine initiated an improvement program with the aim to streamline operations and improve profitability to increase robustness for future growth. Moving on to our main unlisted assets, starting with our industrial software portfolio. First, Cognite.

The company made good progress also in 2022, with SaaS revenue increasing by 85% from the year before, driven by a rapidly growing global customer base across various industrial verticals. Through Cognite's strategic partnership with SLB, Aker is deepening the collaboration with SLB to provide customers in the global energy sector access to data on an unprecedented scale.

This partnership is a recognition of Cognite's global potential and is another example that some of the biggest players in the oil and gas sector, like SLB and Aramco, are choosing Cognite Data Fusion as the architecture for their respective digital tools and offering for production optimization in the oil and gas industry. The company has worked closely with SLB through the fourth quarter and into the new year to develop this unique partnership through which customers can integrate data from reservoirs, wells, and facilities in a single open platform and leverage embedded artificial intelligence and advanced analytics tools to optimize production, reduce costs, and decrease operational and environmental footprint. In the fourth quarter, the company also formed a strategic partnership with Rockwell Automation, the world's largest company dedicated to industrial automation and digital transformation.

This partnership will further unlock the value of manufacturing data and accelerate technological change for the industry. Through its partnership, the parties will develop a unified edge-to-cloud industrial data hub for the manufacturing industry. Our other software company, , is an industrial application software company enabling businesses to visualize, navigate, collaborate, and work on a digital representation of an asset. In the period, Aize signed a one-year SaaS agreement with a global oil major for seven assets across the U.K. and West Africa. A continuation of the strategic partnership agreement between Aker BP, Aker Solutions, and Aize was signed, securing development funding towards Aize's core product moving forward. Aker Energy, our oil and gas company in Ghana, has completed FEED and prepared a revised plan of development for the Pekan field project.

The POD submission has been delayed due to the uncertainties and the risks mainly caused by the war in Ukraine, as well as supply chain disruptions and inflation. The company continues to explore strategic alternatives in response to the said challenges. The current POD deadline has been extended to April 2023. SalMar Aker Ocean. The company is working towards a final investment decision on a new semi-offshore unit named Ocean Farm 2. There is also an ongoing process for design of the Smart Fish Farm offshore unit. Both project timelines have been delayed as a consequence of the proposed resource rent tax or grunnrenteskatt in Norwegian, as well as other topics to be clarified by the authorities in Norway.

In conjunction with Aker's direct investments in Gaia Salmon during the quarter, SalMar Aker Ocean has signed a non-binding agreement with Gaia for the delivery of post-smolt for the offshore salmon farming. The strategic cooperation will improve SalMar Aker Ocean's access to post-smolt, which is an enabler for scaling offshore farming operations. SalMar Aker Ocean continues its collaboration with Norwegian authorities, the aquaculture industry, and other interested parties for the establishment of regulatory frameworks for offshore and semi-offshore salmon farming, including the effects related to the proposed new tax system. SalMar Aker Ocean is committed to new offshore investments as soon as an overall regulatory framework is in place. That concludes my part of today's presentation. I now hand it over to Svein Oskar, who will take you through the financials in the quarter in a great level of detail.

Svein Oscar Stoknes
CFO, Aker ASA

Thank you, Øyvind, and good morning. I will start off spending a few minutes on Aker's financial investments before I go through the fourth quarter results in some more detail. The financial investments portfolio accounted for 15% of Aker's total assets or NOK 11.2 billion, down NOK 685 million from the previous quarter. This is mainly due to a decrease in cash holdings of NOK 1.2 billion, partly offset by a value increase for our listed financial investments of NOK 589 million. As before, the main components on the financial investments are cash, listed financial investments, real estate, and interest-bearing receivables, all of which I will now go through in some more detail. As usual, starting with cash. Our cash holdings represented 2% of Aker's gross asset value, or NOK 1.3 billion.

This is down NOK 1.2 billion from the previous quarter. Cash inflows were primarily NOK 1 billion from the issuance of two new unsecured green bonds and dividends received from Aker BP and AMSC of the equivalent to NOK 752 million. Cash inflows also included a NOK 309 million cash release from the renewal of the total return swaps relating to AMSC. The main cash outflows in the quarter were primarily debt repayment of NOK 1.6 billion and dividend payment of NOK 1.1 billion. Other cash outflows were loans to and equity investments in portfolio companies of NOK 316 million, of which NOK 155 million equity investment in Gaia Salmon.

Payments for operating expenses and net interest were NOK 194 million in the quarter, and our liquidity reserve was a solid NOK 6.4 billion, including undrawn credit facilities of NOK 5 billion. Listed investments included in our financial portfolio represented about 3% of Aker's total assets at the end of the quarter, or NOK 2.5 billion. The total value of this portfolio increased by NOK 589 million in the fourth quarter, mainly explained by value increases of our positions in Solstad Offshore of NOK 347 million and in AMSC. The equity investment in AMSC had a value increase of NOK 193 million in the quarter. In addition, Aker posted a total dividend income from the company of NOK 43 million.

As already mentioned, the TRS agreements related to AMSC were rolled forward in November with a cash release of NOK 309 million. Next, real estate and other financial investments. Combined, the two represented 10% of Aker's gross asset value, or NOK 7.4 billion in total. Aker's real estate holding, Aker Property Group, stood at a book value of NOK 973 million at the end of the quarter. Interest-bearing receivables totaled NOK 4.2 billion, including a NOK 2 billion kroner loan and a NOK 1.2 billion kroner convertible loan to Aker Horizons. Other equity investments totaled NOK 1.4 billion, of which the main components are related to our investments in the company's Industry Capital Partners, Abili, CT, Gaia Salmon, and Klara Ventures.

The decrease in other equity investments is mainly explained by negative value development in Abili of NOK 170 million and in CT of NOK 68 million, partly offset by investment in Gaia Salmon of NOK 155 million. Fixed and other interest-free assets totaled NOK 883 million. Let's move to the fourth quarter financial highlights for Aker ASA and holding companies. Let me start with the balance sheet. Please note that the figures on this slide are after a dividend allocation of NOK 15 per share. The book value of our investments is down NOK 430 million in the quarter. This is mainly explained by negative value changes in Aker BioMarine of NOK 463 million, Aker Horizons of NOK 411 million, and Abili of NOK 170 million.

This is partly offset by the value increase in Solstad Offshore of NOK 347 million and an equity investment in Gaia Salmon of NOK 155 million. In our accounts, we used the lowest of historic cost and market values. The fair value adjustment illustrated in gray color on this slide was down in the quarter to NOK 42.1 billion from NOK 43.2 billion in the third quarter. This is mainly explained by a negative value adjustment in Aker BP of NOK 1.1 billion and Aker Solutions of NOK 144 million. This was partly offset by a positive value adjustment in AMSC of NOK 116 million.

The gross asset value stood at NOK 76.1 billion at the end of the quarter, down from NOK 79 billion at the end of the third quarter. Aker's liabilities consisted of bond debt of NOK 5 billion, of which two new green bonds of in total NOK 1 billion, in addition to a US dollar-denominated bank loan of NOK 1.9 billion, a Norwegian kroner-denominated bank loan of NOK 1 billion, and a NOK 1.1 billion euro-denominated loan. The liabilities at year-end also included a NOK 1.1 billion dividend allocation for 2022, representing NOK 15 per share. The board of directors is also proposing that the annual general meeting authorizes the board to pay a potential additional cash dividend during 2023 based on the 2022 annual accounts. This is in line with last year's practice.

The book equity was NOK 23.7 billion, down NOK 2.1 billion, explained by dividend paid of NOK 1.1 billion and allocation of ordinary dividend for 2022 of NOK 1.1 billion. This was partly offset by profit before tax in the quarter of NOK 121 million. If we adjust for fair values of our listed assets and Cognite, we get our net asset value of NOK 65.7 billion at the end of the fourth quarter after allocation of dividend. Net asset value per share was NOK 885 after dividend, and the value-adjusted equity ratio was 86%. Our gross interest-bearing debt was NOK 9 billion, which is down NOK 784 million from the previous quarter due to net debt repayments. Net interest-bearing debt was NOK 3.2 billion.

We issued new unsecured green bonds totaling NOK 1 billion in November and subsequently exercised the call option on the remaining NOK 1.6 billion of the AKER14 bond. This means we have NOK 5 billion of bonds, and the NOK equivalent of about NOK 3 billion of bank loans currently outstanding, with approximately NOK 5 billion available to draw on the credit facilities. The average debt maturity at the end of the quarter was 3.3 years. Maturity of the bank facilities are three years with two one-year extension options for NOK 4 billion and five years maturity for the remaining NOK 4 billion. Taking into account available credit lines and extension options on the bank loans, the implicit maturity of the entire loan portfolio is 4.9 years. To the income statement. The operating expenses for the fourth quarter were NOK 85 million.

The net value change in the quarter was negative NOK 711 million, mainly explained by value reductions in Aker BioMarine of NOK 463 million and Aker Horizons of NOK 411 million, partly offset by a value increase in Solstad Offshore of NOK 347 million. Our net other financial items were positive NOK 926 million, mainly explained by dividend income of NOK 772 million and gain on the AMSC total return swap of NOK 180 million. The profit before tax was NOK 121 million in the quarter. Thank you. That was the end of today's presentation, and we can then move on to questions.

Fredrik Berge
Head of Investor Relations, Aker ASA

Your first question comes from Kristoffer Metiøkken at SpareBank 1 Markets. The higher interest environment has caused the volume of IPOs of IT companies to come significantly down in 2022. Could you share your view of your plans regarding the future ownership of Cognite and an IPO on Nasdaq as previously has been considered?

Christopher Møllerløkken
Equity Research Analyst, SpareBank1 Markets

Well, our main focus, and quite frankly, only focus, for the time being is the development and growth of Cognite. As I mentioned in my presentation, the performance continued to be great, with a year-over-year revenue growth of more than 50%, and even more importantly, the software as a service revenue proportion year-over-year grew 85%. The underlying market for Cognite is also good. It doesn't reflect at all the drop in the financial market, including the venture capital market for software companies. How do we think about IPO longer term? The plan is exactly the same as before. The longer-term target is to list Cognite most likely in the United States.

It will not happen this year. We take a long-term perspective to the development. Ultimately, that's the goal also anchored with our fellow shareholders. In parallel, we are obviously open-minded to other kinds of transactions.

Fredrik Berge
Head of Investor Relations, Aker ASA

Okay. A follow-up question from Kristoffer. Last year, the aquaculture industry in Norway was hit by a new resource rent tax, as you mentioned in your presentation. Your partner, SalMar, has been vocal that increased tax will impact their investment plans. Could you please give some thoughts regarding the planned future investment in SalMar Aker Ocean?

Christopher Møllerløkken
Equity Research Analyst, SpareBank1 Markets

Sure. We continue to develop SalMar Aker Ocean jointly with the management of that company as well as SalMar according to plan. We're somewhat delayed for reasons I have already explained. The tax system will obviously impact the business case, and as the tax proposal has not yet been concluded, that's a question mark for all of us. We will hold back an investment decision until we have more clarity on the tax system and the tax level for the business longer term.

Fredrik Berge
Head of Investor Relations, Aker ASA

Thank you. The next question comes from Ola Eikanger at SEB.

Good morning, and thank you for the presentation. With the geopolitical backdrop and European energy crunch in mind, we have recently seen European oil majors more muted on the green investment plans to pursue investments in oil and gas. I'm wondering if anything has changed associated to how you think about capital allocation and if directing more capital towards oil and gas investments is something that is higher on the agenda now versus one or two years ago.

Ola Eikanger
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

As you know, we're investing a lot in new oil and gas capacity on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and with the high level of greenfield developments in Aker BP. Those investments were triggered by the temporary changes in the petroleum tax system rather than the geopolitical environment. As far as an allocation of resources to renewables is concerned, we continue to develop our existing businesses, Aker Horizons as an operator, Aker Solutions as a supplier, and going forward, Industry Capital Partners has an investor in renewable and clean tech projects. It is, however, a fact that it's more difficult to find the good investment opportunities in renewable and clean tech than what it is for the time being in oil and gas.

That will not change our strategy, but we will be more cautious in the green industries and acknowledge the fact that most likely it will take more time, not only for us, but for the world to complete the ongoing energy transition.

Fredrik Berge
Head of Investor Relations, Aker ASA

Thank you. The next question comes from Erik Aspen Fosså from Carnegie. Could you please elaborate some more on the progress with ICP? Have you started to market your funds?

Erik Aspen Fosså
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie Investment Bank

Well, the establishment of ICP in general and the different investment vehicles in particular, are progressing according to plan, with obtaining licenses, hiring team, and engaging with both investors as well as future project partners. We expect to launch the first funds during the course of this year and subsequent to that, start investing.

Fredrik Berge
Head of Investor Relations, Aker ASA

Yes. His follow-up question is, what strategic alternatives are you considering for Aker Energy?

Erik Aspen Fosså
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie Investment Bank

Well, Aker Energy is still a very complex matter. The ongoing dialogue is partly about how to resolve the issues related to LUKOIL as a Russian license partner and partly exploration of the opportunity or to engage other industrial or financial partners in the project.

Fredrik Berge
Head of Investor Relations, Aker ASA

The next question comes from Haakon Amundsen at ABG. Good morning. Is it possible to give some color on how you can optimize the structure in Aker Horizons?

Haakon Amundsen
Partner of Equity and Credit Research, ABG

Well, we have already done a lot, by simplifying the structure, through the transactions with the hydrogen and the wind business last year. In addition to that, Aker Horizons is in the process of streamlining business, is focusing the business, reducing the cost base. Now it's more about how to execute on the existing project portfolio and how to succeed with the partnerships, and in particular, the partnership with Statkraft.

Fredrik Berge
Head of Investor Relations, Aker ASA

The next question from the web is about your CEO letter. In your CEO letter, you discussed increased focus on energy security, regional differences that might impact cross-border collaboration. How do you see this could influence Aker's strategic direction moving forward?

Haakon Amundsen
Partner of Equity and Credit Research, ABG

I think it's a very interesting global energy landscape for the time being with significant changes which will impact the longer term strategies of companies like the Aker Group. It's partly about the balance between established sources of energy, like oil and gas, and how to gradually transition into new and greener sources of energy. I think I already mentioned how Aker will think about that transition. We continue to invest in oil and gas. We believe in oil and gas as an attractive investment, short and longer, medium term. In parallel, we're pursuing selectively and with discipline, new green opportunities. There's also a very, very interesting shift in development in different regions.

We all follow with great interest the consequences of the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S.., which has already triggered allocation of resources and initiatives to North America. Now it will be interesting to see how Europe responds, and as a part of that, how Norway would like to position itself in order to leverage our great and unique natural resources.

Fredrik Berge
Head of Investor Relations, Aker ASA

Thank you. The final question is about partnerships. Congratulations on Cognite's strategic partnerships with Rockwell and SLB. Do you have any color around your work with partnerships in Aker and how they might contribute to growth moving forward?

Haakon Amundsen
Partner of Equity and Credit Research, ABG

Well, partnerships have become a very important part of our development. The tipping point was the transaction with BP back in June 2016. The collaboration with BP has not only created a lot of value, but it has also been a very good experience for us with a seamless and very constructive collaboration from day one. That has inspired Aker to pursue partnerships in other parts of the business. Why? Simply because that enables us to scale and grow beyond our existing capabilities. On the software side, we often mention both Microsoft, Accenture, Aramco, and recently, SLB and Rockwell.

It's quite interesting to notice that the company which, hardly existed seven years ago is now on the radar screen of some of the most ambitious energy companies and software companies in the world. We also apply the same method of work to our growth in Aker Horizons. I'm personally very, very excited by the collaboration with Statkraft, both on the Norwegian continental shelf and the offshore wind opportunities we are pursuing there, but also potentially in other green industries. It's early days, but a great fit with complementary capabilities and a shared vision, not only to build individual companies, but to build green industries in Norway.

Fredrik Berge
Head of Investor Relations, Aker ASA

All right. Thank you, gentlemen, and thank you to the audience. That was the end of our webcast today. We wish you a nice Friday.

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