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Earnings Call: Q3 2019

Nov 1, 2019

Torbjørn Kjus
Chief Economist, Aker

Hello everyone, good morning. Welcome to Aker's third quarter 2019 results presentation. We will start today's presentation with Aker's President and CEO, Øyvind Eriksen. He will walk you through the highlights in the quarter and the development of our industrial holdings portfolio. Aker's CFO, Svein Oskar Stoknes, will then go through the financial investments portfolio and the third quarter accounts in more detail. After the presentation, we will open up for a Q&A. With that, I hand it over to Øyvind.

Øyvind Eriksen
President and CEO, Aker

Thank you, Torbjørn. Good morning, and welcome to Aker's third quarter results presentation. Let me start with the highlights from the period. The net asset value was NOK 43.1 billion at the end of the third quarter, down from NOK 44.8 billion at the end of the second quarter. Since December 2018, the net asset value has increased by NOK 1.4 billion. If we include paid dividend of NOK 1.7 billion, the year-to-date growth in net asset value for our shareholders has been 7.3%. Our share price decreased 1.4% in the third quarter. This compares to a 2.5% return in the same period for the Oslo Stock Exchange. Aker's liquidity reserves stood at NOK 5.2 billion, including NOK 2.7 billion in cash. The third quarter offered the following main events for our portfolio companies. Ocean Yield successfully completed a hybrid bond issue of $125 million.

Kværner established a new organizational structure with two new focus areas beyond the current core, namely FPSO and renewables. Together with the World Economic Forum, Aker launched the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution Norway, a technology center dedicated to harnessing technology advances to preserve the ocean and improve the environmental footprint of ocean industries. Last week, we launched four of the initial projects at the center, spearheaded by Aker companies. Subsequent to quarter end, Johan Sverdrup was brought on stream more than two months ahead of the original schedule and NOK 40 billion below budget. The field will be a significant value contributor for Aker BP for years to come. In October, Aker Solutions launched its 2025-2030 strategy, whereby revenue from renewables, mainly offshore wind, is targeted to represent as much as 20% of revenues and low carbon solutions as much as 25% of revenues by 2030.

Also in October, Aker Energy changed its strategy in Ghana in order to de-risk the peak in development within the frames of the petroleum agreement already approved by the Parliament and only with tides already identified. This change in strategy is due to an acknowledgment that our long-term and holistic ambition in Ghana has triggered complexity and lack of progress in various regulatory and political processes. Finally, earlier this week, Aker announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Saudi Aramco for a strategic partnership on industrial digitalization and sustainability initiatives. The MoU constitutes an exciting business opportunity for Kongsberg, including plans to establish a joint venture with Saudi Aramco to enable a digital transformation of the industry at large in Saudi Arabia. I'll revisit some of the older highlights later on in my presentation. First, more about our quarterly performance.

As mentioned on slide three, Aker's net asset value decreased 4% to NOK 43.1 billion in the third quarter. Year to date, the net asset value is up 3%, the real increase in net asset value was 7.3% adjusted for paid dividends. Of the negative value change in the quarter, Aker Solutions stood for NOK 974 million, followed by Ocean Yield's NOK 428 million, Kværner's NOK 159 million, and Akastor at NOK 80 million. This was partly offset by Aker BP, which contributed with a NOK 494 million value increase. Moving on to slide four. The Aker share decreased 1.4% in the quarter, compared to a 2.5% increase in the Oslo Stock Exchange benchmark index. Year to date, the Aker share has increased 9.6%, including dividend paid. Aker's gross asset value as per September 30th, was NOK 54.1 billion, of which the industrial holdings portfolio accounted for 88%.

When deducting liabilities of NOK 11 billion, the value-adjusted equity ratio stood at 80%. Moving on to slide five. The industrial holdings portfolio currently consists of eight assets, five listed and three non-listed companies. The non-listed companies, Aker BioMarine, Aker Energy, and Cognite, are at book value, implying an upside to the Aker net asset value. The book value of Aker Energy rose to NOK 925 million in the quarter following a NOK 65 million investment. As per September 30th, E&P accounted for 66% of our gross values. Oil services stood at 8%, maritime assets 10%, while seafood and marine biotech remained at 6%. Slide six. Aker's liquidity reserves stood at NOK 5.2 billion at the end of the quarter, of which cash amounted to NOK 2.7 billion.

Aker's dividend income was NOK 850 million in the third quarter. We remain on track to reach in excess of NOK 3.5 billion in upstream cash to Aker this year, which will represent a new milestone for Aker. Moving on to more details in our industrial holdings portfolio, starting with Aker BP on slide seven. Aker BP made up 65% of our gross asset value as per September 30th. In the third quarter, production averaged 146,100 barrels per day, 15% up from the second quarter, but below plan due to delayed well stimulation and consequently delayed start of production from new wells on Valhall following the planned maintenance shutdown this summer. Aker BP reported an EBITDA of $550 million compared with $583 million in the second quarter. Aker BP paid a quarterly dividend, of which Aker received NOK 667 million.

During the quarter, Aker BP made a large new oil discovery in the Nordkapp area named Liatårnet. The preliminary estimates suggest 80 to 200 million barrels of recoverable oil reserves. Aker BP's ownership in Liatårnet is 90%, making this a high-impact discovery for the company. Liatårnet can increase the company's resource base significantly and lay a solid foundation for further production growth in Aker BP. The company saw good exploration results with both the Shrek and Ørn discoveries during the quarter. Its field developments progressed as planned. This is paving the way for a significant increase in production in the coming months, especially with the Johan Sverdrup field now on stream. The plateau production at Johan Sverdrup will produce up to 660,000 bbl of oil per day, making up one-third of all oil production on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Johan Sverdrup will be a significant value driver for years to come and contribute to Aker BP's ambition to triple production by 2026. This field is also a large value to Norway, noting that the break-even price is one of the lowest among any global oil project at below $20 per barrel. This low break-even price makes the project economics very robust for future oil price fluctuation. Johan Sverdrup field also shows the massive impact of new technology and industrial digitalization. The field has a record low CO2 emissions, well below one kilo per barrel. This is momentous for the entire industry, and as an active owner, we are pleased to be a part of making the Norwegian Continental Shelf an international benchmark for safe and profitable oil and gas production that is as sustainable as possible.

Furthermore, we are reminded to keep a steady course, focus on our long-term objectives, and spend time on our true value drivers. Our ownership agenda in Aker BP remains focused on lowering break-even costs and on reducing production costs. Moving on to Aker Energy on slide eight. Aker Energy continues to be a priority for Aker. The intention from day one has been to develop a business, including local industry and corporate social responsibility, beyond minimum requirements that is attractive both to our shareholders and to the people of Ghana. In the plan for development and operations for the main reservoir, Pecan, Aker Energy has assumed that all resources, including future tie-ins and new discoveries in this prosperous area, will be produced as part of an area development similar to best practice in other offshore oil and gas regions.

We underestimated, however, the complexity of such a holistic approach to the entire block. The strategic direction impacted issues like regulatory framework, technical concepts prepared for increased recovery, and execution models based on alliance contracts with global suppliers. Norway has played a pivotal role in developing Ghana's oil and gas regulatory framework through the Oil for Development program.

Nevertheless, there are some significant differences between the Norwegian and the Ghanaian systems. One prime example is how in Ghana, all contracts with a value above a certain threshold have to be approved by the Petroleum Commission rather than by a licensed approval of a work program and budget. In a field development like Pecan, the number of contracts to be approved by the Ghanaian Petroleum Commission could exceed 2,000. Such regulatory differences impact risks, business cases, progress, and ultimately production.

Hence, as part of the Pecan PDO, Aker Energy, supported by the other international oil companies operating in Ghana, proposed amendments to the regulatory framework to make development and operations more predictable and robust. Aker Energy believed that such an approach would be to the benefit of the host country, Ghana, but also would enable operators to take a strategic perspective beyond individual fields. Some regulatory changes are likely to be proposed by the government of Ghana, though not to the extent requested in the PDO. Hence, Aker Energy is now changing its approach. Going forward, the priority will be to work with Ghanaian authorities to further optimize and de-risk the development of the already discovered 450 to 550 million barrels of contingent resources in the Pecan reservoir and tie-ins within the applicable regulatory framework and the agreements from 2006.

Our sole objective will be to make the Pecan development more economically robust on a standalone basis. Opportunities to simplify the technical concept, reduce the amount of investments, and cost reductions will be implemented. Furthermore, execution models, including involvement of local industry and commercial terms offered by alliance partners, will be benchmarked against proposals from other suppliers. The petroleum agreement already approved by the government of Ghana contains a stability provision protecting Aker Energy from adverse consequences of changes in legislation or administrative practices after the agreement was approved also by the parliament in 2006, like the above-mentioned requirement to approve contracts. The change in strategy is likely to trigger delays, but I'm confident that it will de-risk the project and hence protect our significant values in Ghana.

The next milestones will be to have the Pecan PDO approved under the petroleum agreement and regulations from 2006 and ultimately make a final investment decision. Aker Energy will, in parallel, explore M&A opportunities that may grow and diversify the portfolio beyond the organic approach we have pursued to date. Slide nine. In the third quarter, Aker Solutions reported NOK 553 million in EBITDA and an order intake of NOK 5.7 billion. As per the end of the quarter, the backlog stood at NOK 27.4 billion. Highlights for the quarter included the work to get the Johan Sverdrup field ready to start production, where Aker Solutions was involved since the early phase from the front end through design, construction, and hookup. The market is still competitive, but tender activity remains high. The company's main priority for coming quarters is to build the backlog while remaining cost-efficient and maintaining capital discipline.

Aker Solutions expects to see slightly lower revenues and margins next year, mainly driven by the order intake in 2019 and phasing of contracts won. During the quarter, Aker Solutions launched its intelligent subsea offering, designed to accelerate field development and maximize performance. At its quarterly presentation last week, the company also presented its 2025-2030 strategy, whereby it aims to derive 20% of its revenue from renewable energy and 25% from low-carbon solutions by the year 2030. The oil and gas industry remains Aker Solutions' biggest market, but the company will have a more balanced portfolio in the face of the ongoing energy transition. Moving over to Akastor on slide 10, MHWirth continues to see a muted rig newbuild market, while aftermarket revenues continued its positive trend through the third quarter.

Aker's vessels operating in Brazil deliver revenue utilization of 94% and 96%, respectively, in the third quarter. The AKOFS Seafarer is currently in the yard in Norway for upgrades and preparations for the contract with Equinor. Akastor continues to work closely with its portfolio companies to support cost-saving programs, operational improvements, and strategic initiatives to further enhance their competitiveness. Slide 11. In the third quarter, Kværner delivered revenues of NOK 2.5 billion and an EBITDA of NOK 138 million. The order backlog stood at NOK 8.3 billion as per the end of the quarter. In the third quarter, the company established an updated organizational structure with two new focus areas beyond the current core, FPSO and renewables. Kværner's focus remains on project execution excellence, coupled with increasing cost efficiency in order to secure even more work.

The balance sheet remains strong, with NOK 2.4 billion in cash, in addition to undrawn credit facilities of NOK 2 billion, providing strategic flexibility. Yesterday, Kværner signed a contract with Equinor to deliver 11 floating concrete holes for offshore wind power turbines and, in addition, execute marine operations services for the Hywind Tampen project. This will be the world's largest floating offshore wind farm and is vital for industrializing solution and reducing costs for future offshore wind projects. Kværner's contract is worth about NOK 1.5 billion. Slide 12. In the third quarter, Ocean Yield extended its agreement with Aker Energy to 31st of December 2019, where Aker Energy has an option to bareboat charter the FPSO Dhirubhai-1 for a period of 15 years. Ocean Yield is in parallel pursuing other employment opportunities for the FPSO.

The value of Dhirubhai-1 is subject to a write-down of $68 million in the third quarter accounts due to the delay of Aker Energy's activities in Ghana and the current assessment of alternative market opportunities. As a consequence, quarterly dividends should be reduced to $0.15 per share from 2020. For Aker, this represents an annual reduction in received dividend of an approximately NOK 150 million, which is already included in our forecast, as I mentioned previously in my presentation. During the third quarter, the company acquired a handy-sized dry bulk newbuild for a purchase price of $18 million, with a 10-year bareboat charter towards Interlink Maritime Corp. The company also completed a hybrid bond issue of $125 million, carrying a coupon of three months LIBOR plus 6.5% per year with quarterly interest payments.

The net proceeds from the bond issue will be used for general corporate purposes, including new investments. The hybrid bond is accounted for as equity. The company's estimated EBITDA backlog stood at $3.2 billion per the end of the third quarter 2019, and the average remaining contract tenure was 10.7 years. The company declared $0.191 per share in dividends in the quarter, unchanged from prior quarter. Slide 13. In the quarter, Aker BioMarine revenues ended at $69 million, with an EBITDA of $21 million, corresponding to a margin of 30%. Superba krill oil contributed positively through growing year-to-date sales, whereas QRILL Aqua has seen a sideways development versus last year. Aker BioMarine's operational performance remains solid, with all-time high production and harvesting volumes. The company maintains a positive outlook on demand for its core products and markets. Finally, on page 14, Cognite, Aker's industrial software company.

In the third quarter, Cognite reported NOK 90 million in revenues compared to NOK 52 million in the same period last year, supported by a growing customer base. Key projects are progressing according to plan, and the company has a solid pipeline of potential new customers in the oil and gas sector and in other asset-heavy industries like manufacturing and power and utilities. In the third quarter, the company opened an office in Austin, Texas, as well as a satellite office in Houston. This global expansion enables Cognite to scale into new geographies and establishing itself alongside leading software providers for digitalization of asset-intensive industries. The geographic expansion will continue into the current quarter, with an office in Tokyo scheduled to open before the year-end 2019. The new offices come as Cognite's organization continues to grow at a rapid rate.

In the third quarter, the company added another 25 employees and now has a total of 253 employees, compared with 116 employees a year ago. Just a couple of days ago, Aker signed a memorandum of understanding with Saudi Aramco for a strategic partnership on industrial digitalization and sustainability initiatives, two complementary areas that are fully aligned with our long-term strategic focus. As part of the MoU, Saudi Aramco, which has an ambition to be the world's leading digitalized energy corporation by 2022, will also establish a joint venture with Cognite for the deployment of their leading industrial software to enable a digital transformation of the industry at large in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

The joint venture will couple Saudi Aramco's expertise and culture of innovation with Cognite's experience in developing and deploying leading industrial software, including Cognite Data Fusion, a software package that accelerates the use of artificial intelligence and advanced analytics for industry. Cognite Data Fusion enables scaling of the digital transformation program across Saudi Aramco. That marks the end of my presentation today. I now hand it over to Aker's new CFO, Svein Oskar Stoknes, who, for the very first time, is presenting Aker ASA's financials.

Svein Oskar Stoknes
CFO, Aker

Thank you, Øyvind, and good morning. I will start off spending a few minutes on Aker's financial investments before I go through the third quarter results in some more detail. The financial portfolio accounted for 12% of Aker's total assets, or NOK 6.4 billion, which is down NOK 0.7 billion from the previous quarter. This was mainly due to the settlement of the AKER12 bond, partly offset by cash dividends received from Aker BP and Ocean Yield in the quarter. As before, the main components under financial investments are cash, listed financial investments, real estate investments, and interest-bearing receivables, all of which I will now go through in some more detail. Starting with cash. Our cash holdings represented 5% of Aker's gross asset value, or NOK 2.7 billion. This is down NOK 0.8 billion from the previous quarter.

The main cash inflows were dividends from primarily Aker BP and Ocean Yield of the equivalent to, in total, NOK 843 million. The main cash outflow in the quarter was the NOK 1.4 billion settlement of the AKER12 bond at maturity. In addition, we provided NOK 64 million in financing to Aker Energy, and our receivables against portfolio companies increased by NOK 48 million, mainly explained by further loans to Aker BioMarine. Payments in the quarter for operating expenses and net interest were NOK 162 million, and our liquidity reserve at the end of the third quarter was NOK 5.2 billion, including undrawn credit facilities of NOK 2.5 billion. Continuing with listed investments included in our financial portfolio, which represented about 1% of Aker's total assets at the end of the quarter, or NOK 723 million. The net decrease in the quarter was NOK 47 million.

This is mainly explained by the value decrease of shares in Solstad Offshore of NOK 50 million and the value decrease of shares in American Shipping Company of NOK 24 million. This was partly offset by a NOK 13 million value increase of shares in Philly Shipyard and a NOK 14 million value increase of the shares in Sea Sense. The total exposure towards American Shipping Company also includes two total return swap agreements with a value decrease of NOK 36 million in the quarter to - NOK 28 million, presented as part of interest-free liabilities. In the quarter, we also posted a dividend income from an American shipping company of NOK 22 million. The Sea Sense shares were realized in the beginning of October with cash proceeds of NOK 20 million. Next, real estate and other financial investments. Combined, the two represented 6% of Aker's gross asset value, or NOK 3 billion in total.

There has been no changes in the quarter to our real estate investment, FP Eiendom, which has a book value of NOK 568 million. Other financial investments is mainly comprised of receivables against Aker BioMarine and Aker Ocean Harvest, airplanes, and unlisted equity investments. There were no major changes to the other financial investments in the quarter, and the NOK 91 million increase is mainly explained by the increased loan issue to Aker BioMarine and foreign exchange adjustments. Let's move to the third quarter financial highlights for Aker ASA and holding companies. Let me start with the balance sheet. The book value of our investment was down NOK 169 million in the quarter, mainly explained by value reductions of the Solstad Offshore investment and our direct investments in Aker Solutions and Akastor. This was partly offset by increased investments in Aker Energy.

The total book value of our assets was NOK 25 billion, and in our accounts, we used the lowest of historic cost and market values. Share prices of our investments continue to be volatile, and this quarter we faced a negative fair value adjustment of NOK 1.8 billion, bringing it down to NOK 29.1 billion. This is, however, NOK 1.6 billion higher than at year-end 2018. The gross asset value stood at NOK 54.1 billion at the end of the quarter. Aker's liabilities mainly consisted of bond debt of NOK 4.7 billion, U.S. dollar-denominated bank loans of NOK 5 billion, and a NOK 990 million euro-denominated loan. The book equity was NOK 14 billion, up NOK 111 million from the second quarter, mainly explained by the net profit before tax for the third quarter.

If we adjust for the fair value of our listed assets, we get our net asset value of NOK 43.1 billion at the end of the third quarter, down NOK 1.7 billion from the second quarter. The net asset value per share was NOK 580, and the value adjusted equity ratio was 80%. Our total interest bearing debt was NOK 10.7 billion, which is down by NOK 1 billion from the previous quarter due to the repayment of the AKER12 bond, partly offset by foreign exchange adjustments. As before, we have significant headroom with regards to our debt covenants, and we had a net interest bearing debt of NOK 6.8 billion at the end of the third quarter, down from NOK 7.2 billion in the previous quarter. To the income statement. The operating expenses for the third quarter were NOK 67 million.

The net value change in the quarter was -NOK 233 million, mainly explained by negative value adjustments of our investment in Solstad Offshore and our direct investments in Aker Solutions and Akastor. Net other financial items were +NOK 410 million in the quarter, mainly explained by dividend income of NOK 850 million, partly offset by negative foreign exchange adjustments. Finally, the profit before tax was NOK 104 million in the quarter. Thank you. That was the end of today's presentation, and we will now open up for any questions.

Torbjørn Kjus
Chief Economist, Aker

Okay. Before we open up for phone questions, we will take a look at what's come in through the web. We have one question that's come in that goes as follows. Could you shed some light on the timeframe for a new PDO in Ghana and the direction of a new development concept? If you want to answer that, Øyvind.

Øyvind Eriksen
President and CEO, Aker

Sure. I'm happy to do so. As I said in my presentation, we have already discovered 450 to 550 million barrels in the Pecan reservoir with identified tie-ins, and that's a significant resource and the main reservoir in the area. Aker continues to see Ghana in general and the Pecan development in particular as a highly attractive asset in our portfolio going forward. The main shift in approach and strategy is that going forward, Aker Energy will optimize the Pecan development standalone and park discussions about how to prepare for future tie-ins and subsequent phases in this area. As a consequence, I expect that the Pecan development concept can be simplified and that the amount of investment can be reduced.

I'm not able today to quantify the expected reduction in investment simply because this is a work in progress as we speak, involving our engineers and our project team. Another consequence of the change in strategy is that Aker Energy will no longer focus on amendments in legislation required in order to prepare for subsequent phases and subsequent times beyond what has already been identified. That's simply due to the fact that the request for regulatory changes has triggered a more complex process and dialogue with the authorities in Ghana than what Aker Energy anticipated. Hence, the Pecan standalone development can be approved based on the legislation and the petroleum agreement from 2006, and Aker Energy will be protected by the stability clause, which is a part of that petroleum agreement already approved by the Ghana Parliament.

Our expectation is that this change in strategy will simplify the dialogue with the authorities in Ghana and enable us to have a constructive dialogue about how we can get the Pecan development on stream as soon as possible. As we, in hindsight, have been too optimistic in our guiding on timing in the past, I will today rather draw your attention to the next milestones, which is first to have the PDO approved with the new approach and under the 2006 Petroleum Agreements, as I just said, and thereafter, make the final investment decision.

Torbjørn Kjus
Chief Economist, Aker

Okay. We have no other questions on the web as for now. Operator, can you open up for potential phone questions?

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a telephone question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. Please ensure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. As a reminder, that is the star or asterisk key, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad to queue for a question. We will pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal. We will now take our first question from Haakon Amundsen of ABG. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Haakon Amundsen
Analyst, ABG

Yes, good morning, guys. Two questions for me this morning. First of all, with respect to Aker Energy, you are also saying that you would like to explore M&A opportunities. I wonder, is this specifically in the area around Pecan in Ghana or is this a broader kind of geographic strategy? That's my first question.

Øyvind Eriksen
President and CEO, Aker

Okay. Let me answer the question about M&A. The answer is that the main focus will be to grow the business in Ghana and diversify the portfolio of assets in Ghana. I will not rule out that M&A could also include assets in neighbor countries, but the main focus will be to grow our business, Aker Energy, and our business in Ghana beyond existing field.

Haakon Amundsen
Analyst, ABG

Thank you. That's pretty clear. My second question. Aker Solutions has been gotten involved in offshore wind farm projects in Korea. I just wondered, does Aker ASA have any plans of becoming or taking ownership in offshore wind farms or similar renewable projects directly?

Øyvind Eriksen
President and CEO, Aker

First and foremost, Aker ASA, as the principal shareholder of both Kværner and Aker Solutions, strongly supports a strategy in the two said companies to grow in offshore wind. Aker Solutions and Kværner will primarily position themselves as suppliers of technology and project management and installation services. Aker Solutions, as you said, has also taken some equity positions in Korea and through PPI also in a project in California. To what extent the group will also move into the utility part of the value chain as a developer or ultimately also as an owner is a question or an opportunity we're exploring as we speak. I will not rule it out. As the short-term priority, we are supporting Kværner and Aker Solutions respectively, and we're gaining useful experience also from the development part of the value chain through the projects already in their respective portfolios.

Haakon Amundsen
Analyst, ABG

Okay. Thank you. That's it for me.

Operator

As a reminder, if you would like to queue for a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. It appears we have no further telephone questions at this time.

Torbjørn Kjus
Chief Economist, Aker

Okay. There's no more questions on the telephone, and there's no more questions on the web. We will conclude our presentation for today. We thank you for the opportunity to present to you and for your attention this morning. Thank you