P/F Bakkafrost (OSL:BAKKA)
Norway flag Norway · Delayed Price · Currency is NOK
448.80
+10.20 (2.33%)
Apr 28, 2026, 4:25 PM CET
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q1 2021

May 11, 2021

Speaker 1

Factory in Libya, which is attached to the head office. And outside, we have Hansa Baca, which came in this morning, brought 300 ton of salmon for today's operation. So today's catch will be processed starting right now as we speak. And at the end of the presentation, we might have time to look 10 seconds into the factory to see some fish. We will start with the summary of the quarter.

And then we will look into the market and the sales and some segment information. And then our CFO, Hakan Udallikobsen, will present the financial numbers and the ESG. And then finally, the outlook for the market and for the company. In the Q1, Baca Frost harvested in the Faroe Islands 14,025 tons compared with 10,667 last year. In Scotland, we harvested 7,000 tons compared with 7,268 tons last year.

The feed sales in the first quarter were 23,700 compared with 19,125 last year. The raw material sourcing in the Q1 was 48,547 tonnes compared with 64,800 last year. The revenues in the quarter amounted to DKK1176 1,000,000,000 in the Q1 2021 compared with 1.255 last year. The operational EBIT in the Q1 amounted to DKK223,500,000 compared with DKK 248 €1,000,000 last year. The cash flow from operations amounted to €137,000,000 in the first quarter, compared with 365 last year.

We had positive operations for the Faroe segments, but negative in Scotland. In the quarter, Baccavrost paid out DKK3.65 Danish kroner out in dividend per share, totaling DKK216 1,000,000 last year. That was paid out 10 days ago. If you look at the summary of the quarter, we see that the farming the combined farming and VAP margin dropped from 25.10 last year down to 21.48 kroner per kilo. In Scotland, the margin dropped from 5.70 down to minus 1.23.

The pure VAP margin increased from minus 2.9 7% up to +18.56% in this quarter. And the FAF margin increased from 13% to 15%. If you look at the markets and sales, For Baccafrost, in this quarter, we saw a huge increase in demand in Europe, mainly driven by retail. But also as reopening of ORECA segment, we saw a good demand from that on top of the retail. So from Faroe Islands, the share in Western Europe increased from 52% to 59%.

North America dropped from 28% to 20% of the Faroe's revenues Asia from 14% to 9% and Eastern Europe increased from 6 percent to 12%. If you look at the Scottish numbers, the main deviation here is that Europe dropped In Faroes, the share of VAP volume dropped from 51% last year down to 28% this year. The salmon prices increased significantly during the quarter. We saw a starting price of around NOK 47 increased up to around NOK 70 by the end of the quarter. Year on year, if we compare the quarters, there's a significant drop on prices from around 70 down to 54.

If you look at quarter on quarter, there is an increase from NOK 44 to NOK 54, 23% up. The current salmon price seems to be quite strong, even when food service is not fully back. So far in the Q2, the NASDAQ price is close to 5 years peak for this time of the year, even if the volumes are all time high. When we look at the development in the harvested and sold Quantity by region, we see that the Norwegian Supply increased around 16%, which is in line with the total supply increase of around 16% to the market. In Norway, the sales were higher than expected in the quarter, mainly driven by large fish.

The average weight was around 4.6 kilos in the quarter compared with 4.4% last year. We think that it's mainly driven by a larger number of large smalts that was released last year. We see that European harvest is up 18%. U. K.

Had a 23% increase in harvest. The average weight is around 4.3 versus 3.8 last year. In the Faroe Islands, we harvested 31% more in this quarter compared to last year. The average weight is unchanged at 5.2 kilos. In Faroe Islands, we saw also that the numbers are positively affected by a larger share of big smolts in Faroe Islands and this trend will continue in the Faroe Islands.

In Chile, we see also an increased supply in the quarter. The average weight of the fish was 4.7 compared with 4.6% last year. But there is a drop in biomass in Chile that we will see affecting the supply going forward. When we look at the markets, we see a very strong and impressive increase in demand. There is a high elasticity, especially in the European market during this quarter, high retail share compared with other markets and also high activity on campaigns.

We expect that retail sales will remain high with outdoor evening, a barbecue And food service will come back, which will add on top of these volumes. There is increased positivity in the market with signs of lockdowns easing in U. K. And elsewhere. France is also easing lockdown, opening outside from 19th May.

We see also fish pool prices strong, around 59 for the next 12 months. In U. S, we see also a strong demand, high volumes, which are cleared at good prices. And We saw also export growth in March April higher than last year. April was up around 9%, But we expect some moderate growth, especially from Chile, as we go into the next months following the algae bloom there.

There's a growth in the Russian market, 36% growth, which is mainly imports of frozen goods from Chile. High increase in Japan, 24%, some drop in Greater China. We saw also in the beginning of the quarter that the markets in China were very much hampered, but there has been a very positive development, especially in March April in China. When we look at the market balance and the outlook for the next four quarters, We see that the increase of supply in the Q1 on 16% will not last. We see a significant drop in front of us on market supply.

In Europe, there is expected flat or stable supply growth around 8%, but a huge drop expected in the Americas. Our take is that the main change in the market balance seems to be a very strong demand And this has boosted prices, especially in March April. And this could be related to lower prices last year in the market, which has boosted the demand and new markets. But supply growth in the Q4 and the Q1 into the market were much higher than anticipated. Especially in the Q1, despite 16% supply growth, demand growth was even higher.

A lot of salmon has been harvested from the biomass in Chile and Norway. This means that there is less fish, less for the next 4 quarters, which again means a totally different market balance. During the next quarters, we will see a low supply from Chile down to around minus 20%, compared with last year where we had a growth. From Europe, the growth rate will be lower than anticipated earlier. Turning to the segments.

In the Q1, we harvested in the Faroe Islands 80% of the volumes from the north segment, 18% from the west and only 1% from the south. In the north, the majority of the fish came from Kvaanasund, a good site and good fish. Cost price, more or less in average. In the West, the majority came from Gotowoek, also average. So all in all, it was a bit average on cost, slightly or marginally up.

And The Gertrude fish was around 4.5 kilos and the Kvaanassen fish was around 5.2. And from southern from south was 7.5, so some remaining large fish coming into January. The average weight was 5 kilos all in all compared with 5.2 last year. In Scotland, the fish came out at 4.2 versus 4%, so good, 5% up compared to last year, good development. Salmon transfers in Faroes was 2.4 versus 2.3% last year, 4% up.

And Scotland, 1.6% versus 1.0%, 60% In Faroes, we see a good increase of the size of the small, 3.82 gram versus 3 0.9 gram last year, so 24% up. That is in line with expectations. We expect this year to stock around $400 in average. In Scotland, there's a flat development, no change, more or less. We expect, of course, that this will be changed significantly in the future.

Temperatures in the water are slightly up or more or less in line with previous years. If you look at the operational performance, we see that in the Faroe Islands, We had a drop in margin compared with last year from 32% to 22%, from 203,000,000 to 143,000,000 and the revenues from 6.33% to 6.45%, 2% up. In Scotland, the margin dropped from 30% down to minus 6%, the operational margin from 7% down to minus 2% and the revenue from $412,000,000 down to 3 €22,000,000 On the next page, we have the operational performance. We see that in Faroes, the margin dropped from 26.51 to 14.10 in the pure farming margin, a 12 kronor in Norwegian kronor down. In Scotland, 7 kronor down from 5.7 kronor to minus 1.3 In Paro Islands, I would say that the biological performance was good in the quarter.

Feed conversion rate, all time low, 1.04, biological feed conversion rate. TGC, all time high. We had some losses last year, which has impacted our costs. So but there are no big issues in the Q1 on the biology. In Scotland, also good numbers.

Feed conversion rate also low, 1.14. TGC also all time high, developing in the right direction. There's a cost reduction in Scotland, £0.7 per kilo compared to last year. We continue to focus on reducing costs in Scotland. But the main game changer in Scotland is our strategy with increasing the small size.

We expect to see some gradual change within 1 year as Applecross Project 3 will start an operation now. This means that we will add some capacity and be able to produce 4,000,000 smalls at Applecross at 100 25 gram. The bigger change will be within 2 to 3 years as the next expansion, Upper Cross IV, will commence production. Further details into that will be on our Capital Market Day in September. When we look at the WAP in this quarter, we see probably the best quarter from WAP ever.

We had good development, good production, revenues 9% up to 300,000,000 Operational EBIT significantly up from minus 11% to plus 75%. Operational EBIT from minus 3% to plus 18.56%. So that's a good probably the best quarter ever. We had all KPIs developed in the right direction, high demand and low costs. So what has contributed to good with bakrifrost value chain during this difficult period with the pandemic.

But we expect to see Big changes in quarters to come as raw material costs and summer price will increase significantly. And of course, we have contracts to respect. Looking at fishmeal, oil and feed. We see in this segment lower especially in the fish meal and oil, some lower raw material sourcing, which is the main driver for the fish mill and oil. However, we expected a bit lower volumes this year.

And we have a good development in the FEED operation. So compared with last year on the fish meal and oil, that's the biggest difference. But feed goes up from 19,000 to 24,000 tons. And the bida margin is stable. So less externally fish meal sold and less raw material sourced.

When you look at the market prices on fish meal and oil, They are a bit stable. Fish oil, a bit down. Fish meal, a bit up. So The big driver is the raw material sourcing, which will be slightly lower this year. And then Hakan Dahlgren, our CFO, will present the financials.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Raine, and good morning, everyone. If we look at the P and L for this quarter, we can see that both the revenue and the operational EBIT is down compared to the Q1 last year. However, last year, in the Q1, we were only minor mainly affected by the pandemic. So we were winding slowly into the pandemic, you could say. And then this quarter, it seems like we are winding slowly out of the pandemic.

Revenue in this quarter was $1,176,000,000 compared to 1 point to €6,000,000,000 in the same quarter last year. And the operational EBIT was €224,000,000 in this quarter. Fair value of the biomass was indeed due to changes of the salmon price, but also due to the changes in the biomass itself, where amongst others, we have slightly reduced average harvest time of the fish that we have in sea. So The time to harvest is slightly shortened. Revenue tax in this quarter was €20,000,000 minus €20,000,000 and we paid 80 of 2020 of €148,000,000 and turned into a profit of €480,000,000 Despite having a slightly lower operational EBIT in this quarter compared to last year, in the same quarter, this is the absolute best quarter that we have produced during the since the pandemic kicked in.

And the same goes for the adjusted earnings per share, which were EUR 2.95 in this quarter. If we look at our balance sheet, intangible assets was 4 €493,000,000 Property, plant and equipment increased from year end 2020 where it was €4,200,000,000 roughly to roughly €4,400,000,000 by the end of this quarter. Biological assets amount to €2,441,000,000 Inventories were more or less unchanged and amount to €772,000,000 And receivable increased by 58 €1,000,000 to €549,000,000 Accounts payable went in the opposite direction from 6 €129,000,000 to €400,000,000 by the end of this quarter. Cash and cash equivalents were 374 €1,000,000 by the end of this quarter and equity roughly €9,200,000,000 Equity ratio was 67.7%. Moving on to the cash flow.

Cash flow from operations reduced from €365,000,000 in the Q1 of last year to euros 37,000,000 in this quarter. Cash flow from investments were minus €2 €68,000,000 and cash flow from financing were €37,000,000 If we look at the development in the net interest bearing debt, we left the last quarter, Q4, with a net interest bearing debt of 1,757,000,000 net investments added 2 €68,000,000 working capital, another €228,000,000 and cash from operating activities reduced our net interest bearing debt with €310,000,000 resulting in a net interest bearing debt of 1.9 €1,000,000 in the bank facility and an accordion option of €150,000,000 on top of that available to us. At the moment, we have undrawn or by the end of the quarter, we have undrawn credit facilities amounting to roughly €1,500,000,000 excluding the accordion option. Short update, some headlines from the ESG in our agenda in our work on ESG agenda in this quarter. In this quarter, we were nominated for 2 awards with at the ED Sustainability Awards, and actually won one of them, as Rain won the award for Business Leader of the Year.

We have also continued our work towards reducing our carbon emission and has and we have electrified 1 of our large sea barges with pulling out a 5 point 6 kilometer long sea cable. We have also signed the contract to build a fully electric work boat, which will be delivered to us by the end of this year. On the research side, we have continued to fund our research projects about sea trout. And we have also decided to join the Digi art research project to gain more understanding of the heart health status of the And finally, we are still proud sponsors, main sponsors for the East football team and have made an agreement on continuing the sponsorship of that. And with that, I will leave it back to you, Rui.

Speaker 1

Thank you. The outlook for the market is quite good. There is a bit of a changed market balance where the supply increase will be down And there will be less fish harvested after we have had 14.4% increase of harvest in the Q4 and 16% supply because inventories were also lowered. So coming from a very, very strong demand into a market where there will be less availability, We expect 1% to 2% decrease in the Q2 of global harvest, and more or less 0 growth expected. 5% increase of global supply during 2021, where most of that is behind us.

So and we see that the forward price for the next 2 years is NOK 59, which also is the average for 2019, which was a strong year. In the farming segment, Baccarat is expected to harvest 106,000 ton, 66 in Faroes and 40 in Scotland. We expect in Faroes to be quite stable, around 18,000 ton or so per quarter for the next three quarters. And in Scotland, between $101,000 per quarter for the next three quarters. We expect this year to stock around 14,500,000 smolting faroes and around €11,000,000 in Scotland.

For 2021, we signed contracts for 28% of the total expected volume in the Faroe Islands and Scotland, which is more aligned with expectations and production. Normally, there will be some added during the year, so that we will be above 30% when the year is finished. Our strategy is to allocate around 40% of expected volume into commitments and contracts at any time. Fish mill oil and feed, we expect to source around 120,000 tons in 2021, which is lower than last year. But with the fish feed, we expect an increase of of sales, mainly because we use more in Scotland.

Our strategy at the moment is very much to focus on organic growth, to pursue the growth of our value chain and to build that together with our company. So we are at the At the time now, we are looking at the 5 years ahead of us, and we will come further into details on our Capital Market Day in September about this next 5 year strategy. However, for the years 2020 to 22, we expect to invest around €1,800,000,000 around €600,000,000 per year in the Faroes and around €1,200,000,000 in Scotland, around €350,000,000 €400,000,000 per year, mainly in smalt hatcheries, but also in some farming processing operation. So by this, I will open up for questions. I guess I can do that.

Whoever has a question just turns the mute off. And go ahead with your question, please.

Speaker 3

It's Alexandra Ochter from GMB. Just a question on the VIP side. I think that's the main deviation from what I expected in consensus, very, very strong numbers. Just help me understand how you're able to generate higher margin despite lower volumes processed in the quarter versus last quarter And a higher spot price or raw material price. What's driving this very strong VAP performance?

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Well, thank you, Alexander, for the question. In the VAP, in this quarter, we have had operation. But at the same time, as you remember, we had some inventories from the Q4 into the Q1. So inventories were quite high at the beginning of the quarter. So we have generated some profit from those inventories.

So that's the main deviation. So we have had done good production by the end in 2020 with low costs on raw materials. Is that okay?

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Anyone else?

Speaker 4

Question here from Karl Emilio in Puerto. It's a bit in the same Direction, but when you guide on 20% to 80% contract share for 2021, is that evenly split between Ferro Oil and the U. K? And if so, should we then expect that the volumes in VIP will come On absolute levels going forward, so that you will have less sales from VFP, so to say.

Speaker 1

In Faroe Islands, we did around 24,000 tons last year of HOG. This year, we will probably more or less on the same level, 24,000, 26,000 ton. But as you said, volumes is going up, so that means that this year will be slightly lower. In Scotland, we are doing something like 12,000, 13,000 ton. We will probably be more or less on that same level during this year.

And as you know, 40,000 ton is the total value volume in Scotland. So Some of the contracts last only for 6 months, some last 12 months and sometimes The volume is a bit flexible if there are promotions and so on. So the share will probably be slightly lower this year as especially in the Faroes as volumes increase.

Speaker 4

Yes, understand. And everything that goes And the VIP on the Faroes, is that on contracts? Or are you kind of also selling fillers that are in the more spot market?

Speaker 1

Yes, normally in Faroes, we have been doing very much in long term contracts. But now, we are doing some or fillets also with fresh fillets exported overseas. That's a new trend. I'm not sure yet how successful that will be, but there is a very big demand on those fresh fillers.

Speaker 4

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Any other question?

Speaker 5

It's Alex Jones from Bank of America. You mentioned Asia demand Improving in March April. Could you give a bit more color on that? And whether you're seeing demand back at pre COVID levels? Or whether there's a bit more still to go there?

Thank you.

Speaker 1

There is still something to go there. There is a reopening in the market. We see a very strong development reopening. There has been a steady trend during the quarter, and we saw, especially in Asia in March, a very strong development with reopening of markets. So we are quite confident that this will continue.

And the same in the U. S, where reopening of the Horeca segment is a key driver. As you know, The Horeca segment is in Asia and U. S, the main summer market. And that's why those markets were very much affected by the COVID-nineteen.

And now we see a very strong coming back off of those markets. We have seen some numbers, which indicate that the market now is more or less at 60%, 70% level of bookings in restaurants. So there is still something to go there. And we still expect more demand as the summer will come closer and There will be more reopening.

Speaker 5

We see That is actually up compared to Q4. Could you give some details on the explanations behind and how much this is actually impacting your EBIT margin out of Faroe Island and how you see the development now as the world is gradually moving back to normal. Is the new normal, so to speak, higher than what it was back in 2019?

Speaker 1

The air transport is higher, especially to the U. S. In Asia, we have seen quite good rates now, more or less not quite fully, but close to pre COVID-nineteen. But on our U. S.

Sales, which is 20% of the Faroe sales in the Q1, There are significantly higher costs related to that Transportation. At the moment, we see availability of capacity, but not capacity is not the same as passenger planes are not as active as before between Europe and U. And I think it will be very much related the cost of that transport will be very much to passenger transportation, as we mainly use those to cover our full need to transport the fish.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. And Same question on the biomass. I see that you reported your biomass is close to 10% higher Then last year, could you share some details on how you see the biomass development over the coming two quarters? And how much biomass do you need to build order to reach your harvest volume targets.

Speaker 1

Normally, we reduce biomass in the first half of the year. So Q2, the biomass will also go slightly down. And normally, we build biomass in the 3rd Q4. So that's the normal pattern. So there will be some reduction now in the second quarter.

And then we will build some biomass in the 3rd Q4 as we in those quarters. We are, however, still building some biomass in our hatcheries. We hold much higher biomass in our as production. If this year, we are going to stock 15,000,000 fish at 400 gram, that equals to 6,000 ton. So in order to produce that, there's some added biomass also in the arteries.

So some slightly up.

Speaker 5

But is the 10% that you are up now something that we Maybe you should expect also into the second half of the year or could it be even higher, you think?

Speaker 1

I would say that, first, we will go slightly down and then we will go up again in the 3rd Q4 and the level will be probably slightly higher than what we saw by the end of last year. So by the end of this year, should be slightly higher than the end of last year.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Anyone more?

Speaker 6

Chris, I'll be here from Kepler Cheuvreux. And can you comment a little bit on the fish meal and fish oil and fish feed margin in the quarter, a bit More in-depth on should we expect it to stay at these levels? It was 12.8 percent EBIT margin, I think, in Q1? Or should we should it rise based on you commented a bit on inventory developments in Q4.

Speaker 1

I would say that it is likely that they are quite stable. You know that we have quite high inventories of fish meal built up by during the last three quarters. So those will remain fairly high. Normally, the peak of inventories in fish meal and oil is by the end of the second quarter. So we are not going to reduce inventories, maybe built a bit more.

And our feed sales will be high going forward, both in the in the Q3. So there will be higher activity. And now is also the peak season. In the Q2, it's the peak season for raw material sourcing. So normally, that's a good quarter.

But normally, we built some inventories in that quarter, which are then released into our P and L in the 3rd Q4. So I would say the best guess is stable.

Speaker 6

Thank you. And also on the farming cost So it sounds like you're quite positive given very low feed conversion ratios that you've seen in the Faroe Islands maybe in particular. Should we expect cost to Quite good in Q2 at least as it looks now or how do you see that?

Speaker 1

Yes. I would also say that my best Gas is quite stable. As you know, we had some issues in the beginning of last year, which impacted the last year's numbers and also the biomass, that should be finished now. So at the moment, we see a stable operation and good development. We are doing quite good with low feed conversion rate, as you mentioned, good growth, low mortality.

So there is very little to go on more there. So therefore, my best guess is stable. Any last question? No? Alwyn, Should we show our today's catch of salmon into the production?

Coming from Panazond, this fish today is 5 kilos, got it, going into the markets. So this fish was 5 half an hour ago. And later today, they will be on their way to the markets in Asia, America, Europe. Thank you very much for the attention

Powered by