Hello, everyone, and welcome to DNB's pre-close for the third quarter. The objective of this pre-call is to remind you of what we have communicated, which could have an effect on the third quarter. We will also give you some statistics, that is, of course, public, that might help you for the third quarter. As usual, I will go through the NII and the capital, and then Agne will do the remaining of the P&L. I remind you that there is one interest day or one day of interest more in the third quarter than in the second quarter , which we have said is approximately NOK 125 million. On the volume side, we have some updated statistics from Statistics Norway. For August, the growth was 3.7% year-over-year.
This is down from 4.4% in August 2022. So the trend is a gradual lower demand for credit in the household. The central bank is expecting a credit growth for the year as a whole of about 3.7%. We have not seen any significant changes in the competitive landscape for the quarter. On the corporate banking side, Statistics Norway have seen a credit growth for August of 4%, and that is down from July, which was 5.2%. On the margin side, we see we have some tailwind from rate increases in the second quarter and also in the third quarter.
We will have a full quarterly effect in Q3 from the price change that was effective from May 11th . That was 25 basis points, which we said will rranslate into approximately NOK 1.1 billion in annual effects. We will have partly a quarterly effect from the price change, which is effective from August 7. That was 50 basis points, and we have estimated approximately NII annual effect of NOK 2.2 billion. We will also have a very small effect, of course, from the price change, which was effective from October 22nd. That will not have any effects in the third quarter. That will have an effect in the fourth quarter.
That was the 25 basis points, and also we had a rate hike, which will have an effect also in 25 basis points in November 26th. The rate path that the Norwegian Central Bank is expecting is they are expecting another hike in December. So that means that we will see the interest rate topping out at 4.5%. In 2024, they expect the interest rate to be fairly stable. From 2025, you will see a gradual decrease down to 3.25% from beginning of 2027. We will have some FX effects, which is different this quarter.
The average NOK has strengthened by about 3% when we take into account our exposure, which is approximately 10% US dollars, 5% Euro, and 5% the Swedish krona. This will give a negative effect in Q3. Remember that we did see a positive FX effect in the second quarter of approximately NOK 132 million, and that was due to a weakening of the Norwegian krona of approximately 5%. On the capital side, we reported in Q2, you probably remember, the CET1 ratio 18.9%. We received the approval from the Norwegian FSA a couple of days later. So, if we adjust for this announcement, the CET1 ratio was 18.6%.
We will have also some minor FX effect, only minor. We can also say that the share buyback program of 1.5% that was announced after the quarter is expecting to finish by October 18th. And then over to you, Agne.
Sure. Starting with commission and fees, investment banking services, of course, typically sees a lower activity level in the third quarter compared to the second, due to the holiday season. We have seen a pickup in market activity, however, in September, in both ECM and DCM. On real estate brokerage, we have seen a slowdown in the market for residential real estate or housing throughout the summer, really, with a lower number of properties sold and purchased, as well as a slight decline in average prices. We also see that the sale of new builds is at a record low level, and of course, the third quarter is typically a slower quarter for real estate broking, due to the holiday summer holiday season. Asset management.
According to market statistics for August, there has been a positive AUM development, driven by both net inflow and market development. And finally, money transfers. We continue to see a high level of card use, including international card use through travel activity this summer. And, as you know, Q3 is typically a high activity quarter for card use exactly because of the summer holidays. Moving on to the table titled Net Gains on Financial Instruments at Fair Value, starting with customer revenues in DNB Markets or FICC. It continues to see a high activity level. The mark-to-market effects on the AT1 and the basis swaps will be announced shortly after quarter end, as we usually do.
And a reminder on the outstanding US dollar AT1, that is still at $850 million. Moving on to costs. Market expectations to salary inflation in Norway is now at 5.5% for this year. A reminder that the central wage negotiations in early Q2 came in at 5.2%. Even though our cost base is primarily exposed to the Norwegian economy, we have some exposure to higher inflation levels through our third-party contracts. A brief comment on pension expenses. Normalized pension expenses are expected to be slightly higher going forward, driven primarily by wage inflation development. Lastly, impairments and asset quality. The portfolio is still, of course, carefully monitored, and we are generally comfortable with the risk in the portfolio still.
As you know, impairments will vary from quarter-to-quarter, driven by both potential changes to macro input factors in the ECL model and/or company-specific events, as you've seen in past quarters. And as we've stated before, there is more uncertainty going forward, given the macroeconomic outlook, and it would be natural to see more company-specific events. But again, we do not yet see any systemic areas of concern in our portfolio. Lastly, a kind request or reminder to please submit your consensus estimates to Johanna by close of business on October 6th. So with that, we thank you for your attention and wish you a good rest of the day. Thank you.
Thank you.