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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Oct 20, 2022

Thomas Midteide
Group Executive Vice President of Communications and Sustainability, DNB Bank

Good morning, everyone. Good to see you all again. Welcome to this live presentation of DNB's 1/3 1/4 results. Good to see all of you here in the audience, and we're happy to have many of you watching online as well. As always, we'll have a Q&A session in about 30 minutes, and we'll have individual interviews for media as well. Without further delay, I'll leave the floor to Kjerstin and then to Ida.

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

Thank you very much, Thomas, and a very good morning to all of you. Welcome to this 1/3 1/4 presentation of our results. The 1/3 1/4 has also been characterized by a high level of activity in the Norwegian economy. We continue to notice that the business activity with our customers and within our customers' business continues to remain high.

There's a solid set of results we deliver, and we have a robust balance sheet as well as our portfolio, and we see limited, if any, spillover effect from any emerging challenges in the world economy and market volatility. More specifically on the quarterly numbers. Return on equity comes in at 12.7% for the 1/4, with profits of NOK 7.6 billion.

The trailing twelve-month return on equity continues to increase and now is at 12.3%, which means that we deliver on what we have targeted as our most important financial measure of return on equity above 12%, both for the 1/4 and for the past year. There's a strong uptick in net interest income of more than 25% compared to last year and 6% compared to the previous 1/4.

The clearly most important driver for this is the acquisition of Sbanken if we compare to last year, as well as a high profitable growth in the corporate sector and higher interest rates. There is an All-Time high commission and fees for a 1/3 1/4, which is usually a slower 1/4, and there are 2 areas within commission and fees that I would like to highlight.

Specifically investment banking and DNB Markets, which perform strongly in a seasonally slower 1/4, and the transaction banking and payment activity where we, for the first time, see us being back to and above pre-pandemic levels. Portfolio is robust, capital position is solid, and we have a growth in earnings per share of 11.2% compared to the same 1/4 last year.

You may have seen that there is a lower contribution from financial instrument this 1/4. More particularly, in addition to what you already know with basis swaps and Additional Tier 1 adjustments on Mark-To-Market, there is a negative Mark-To-Market on own share investment of NOK 858 million for the 1/4.

Adjusted for this, earnings per share would have been NOK 5.20 per share, which underlines the strong quality of our earnings and results this year. As already mentioned, we've seen a high activity across the Norwegian economy, and GDP growth during the summer months and early autumn has proven to be higher than previous estimates by the central bank.

Now, the estimates that we see given by macroeconomists and central bank and Ministry of Finance for next year, they vary, and I believe they underline the difficulty at the moment to forecast the future activity in the economy. Highlight here the estimates from DNB Markets of 0.8% for next year. They're about in the middle of the pack, not the most negative, not the most optimistic.

For the Norwegian economy overall, the broad view is more one of stagnation than one of a recession. There's also a broad expectation of continued growth in investment for businesses, and this relates both to the mainland economy as well as oil and gas.

Unemployment, which is now very low, 1.8%, we do believe it to increase somewhat, but not above 3%, and then close to levels we saw prior to the pandemic, which is to be considered low unemployment. Inflation continues to be above the targeted level by the central bank, but we do start to see signs that the monetary policy is taking an effect. Fewer businesses expect to hire more people and grow.

We see reduced expectations for growth in certain industry sectors such as retail and consumer services, and we hear of fewer businesses reporting of capacity constraints. The rate path was adjusted slightly upwards during the previous meeting of the central bank. Rates are now expected to top out at 3.25 basis points. Next increase is expected in November.

The jury's out whether the market believes 50 or 25, but more are now pointing in the direction of believing in a 50 basis points further uptick in view of the very high activity in the economy. Altogether, despite the uncertainty that is higher than we are used to, this forms a very resilient basis for our business as we move ahead. A few highlights from the business areas.

Personal customers, we see a material uptick in revenue and pre-tax profit from last year. Again, as you can see from the slide, the clearly major driver of this is the acquisition and increased revenue from Sbanken. We are very pleased to see that more and more customers come to us with their business, and there is profitable growth both in and under the DNB and Sbanken programs.

Particularly, there is a very solid growth from Sbanken, which grows by 4.9% in the 1/4. We continue to be excited about the opportunity, but then what we already see now is the value of a very strong performing organization that is allowed to focus on the customer activity.

The rest of the organization picking up more of the administrative tasks, and this leads to a growth in income for Sbanken of more than 13% for the 1/4, while costs are more or less flat. There is a growth in pre-tax profit also from the previous 1/4.

This is driven by a growth in other income, as net interest income is down from the previous 1/4 in view of increasing money market rates. Again, here you can see in more detail the high level of activity in payments and banking transactions. We show that this is at a higher level than it was in 2019 prior to the pandemic.

Part of the reason for this is the result of a resilient efforts and initiatives to increase efficiency and reduce costs across all of the products that are in this category, which now materializes when the market is back to normal. Well, is it back to normal? I have to put some nuances onto that. Bear in mind that 1/3 1/4 is when most people in Norway go on holiday.

It is when we're more actively traveling abroad and using our credit cards, and the outlook is more uncertain in terms of consumer behavior going forward. Nonetheless, it's a strong 1/4 for money transfer and banking services, and I think very good to see the efforts also of the work that has been put down over the past couple of years. Now over to corporate banking.

Despite not having the impact of an acquisition, we see an even stronger growth in earnings in corporate banking. The revenue in corporate banking surpasses NOK 10 billion this year and is close to double the revenues in the personal banking area. Profits are up by 27.2% compared to last year and 3.5% from the previous 1/4.

Also here, we continue to see profitable growth. Slower growth with large corporates, which is in line with what we have indicated previously, but we highlight the growth in SME that we always prioritize. It is year to date now at 7.4%, underlining both the solid activity level across the economy and also our solid position we believe in this very attractive segment.

There is a substantial increase in revenue from other areas than lending in corporate banking, and again, highlighting the performance of DNB Markets, strong in an economically slow 1/4 and less activity or less active capital markets. We believe this shows the resilience in the business model, which we've talked about many times.

High activity across mergers and acquisitions, high in equities, and a very strong cooperation within our markets activities, as well as between markets and corporate banking. The pre-tax in markets of NOK 704 million for the 1/4 is 17.5% higher than the same 1/4 last year.

To sum up for corporate banking, I would say that it's solid across the board and return on allocated capital in corporate banking for the 1/4 is 17.9%. With these few comments, I will leave the floor to Ida.

Ida Lerner
CFO, DNB Bank

Thank you, Kjerstin. We noted a profitable currency adjusted loan growth, which ended up at 0.9% in the 1/4. In the personal customer segment, we had a growth of 1.1%. The growth was found both in DNB and in Sbanken, as Kjerstin pointed to. The growth in corporate customer segment of 0.7% relates to both SME and large corporates, both in geographies as well as in sectors where we have a long-term strategic ambition.

We noted also a currency adjusted growth in deposits of 3.7% in the 1/4. Personal customer with a slight decrease of 2%, which is very much in line with normal seasonal effects, while deposits in corporate banking increased by 8%. This leads to a strong deposit to loan ratio of 78.3%.

We reiterate our long-term ambition of a growth between 3%-4% on an annual basis, but in light of the strong activity we've seen here to date, we expect to grow a bit more than 4% this year. Growth in the fourth 1/4 is expected to be lower. The net interest margin was up by 2 basis points in the 1/4. The increase comes as a result of the 2 customer repricings implemented in the second 1/4, Mid-May as well as Mid-August.

Combined spreads decreased by 3 basis points affected by the steep increase in NOK money market rates and the 6-8 weeks lag effect we see on customer repricing. Net interest income increased by NOK 728 million, up 6.3%, driven by profitable loan growth as well as customer repricings.

We noted effects from the repricings, including interest on equity of NOK 466 million. Increased average loans and deposit volumes contributed positively by NOK 230 million. One additional interest day, as well as currency effect, contributes positively with NOK 101 million and NOK 77 million respectively. Amortization effects and fees decreased by NOK 70 million due to lower refinancing activity in the 1/4.

NII effects from increased interest rates comes if and when we change customer prices. The notice period on repricing of loans to customer gives lag effects. In the 1/3 1/4, we experienced the full effect from the 1/3 repricing implemented Mid-May and partial effects from the fourth implemented Mid-August. DNB has since then announced 2 additional repricings, with effect from the beginning of October and beginning of November.

These will therefore only have partial effects from the fourth 1/4, while we will see the full effect from the fourth repricing in that 1/4. The 2 announced repricing are each estimated to have an annual effects of approximately NOK 2.4 billion. Please note that these indicated levels are based on the current composition of the portfolio.

Net commission and fees comes in at NOK 2.7 billion, up 12% from the corresponding 1/4 last year. As Kjerstin pointed to, we deliver an All-Time high 1/3 1/4. The results from real estate broking reflects the markets where we experience fewer properties being sold. Investment banking fees are up 10.7% from the same 1/4 last year. Solid performance across product areas in a seasonally low 1/4. Continued high activity within M&A and equities drives these results.

Asset management and custodial services decreased by 4.1%. Customers remain committed to their saving schemes despite market turmoil reflecting the positive inflow we see in the 1/4. The positive inflow was, however, offset by the reduced market values. Guarantee commissions showed a positive development, up 11.3%, driven by increased demand for trade finance products. Money transfer and banking services continues to increase, up 93.7% from the corresponding 1/4 last year.

We noted increased international traveling, as well as high card usage among our personal customers. Fees from sale of insurance products decreased by 3.8%. The positive development in both Non-Life and personal risk insurance was offset by reduced fee income generated from DNB Livsforsikring as a consequence of the repricing effect stemming from the pension reform.

Operating expenses are down by NOK 51 million compared to the previous 1/4 and reflect a seasonally low 1/4. Marketing expenses was down by NOK 52 million, reflect seasonally lower activity in personal banking as well as real estate broking. Pension expenses are down compared to the previous 1/4 as a consequence of the one-off cost we reported in the second 1/4 related to the U.K. pension scheme.

Underlying, we do, however, have an increase in pension cost of NOK 68 million. The closed defined benefit scheme is partly hedged, and you can therefore find a corresponding item in net gains on financial instruments. Depreciation of fixed and intangible assets are up NOK 25 million, reflecting increased income from operational leasing in DNB Finance. Other expenses are up NOK 25 million. As mentioned before, we enter into a period with increased inflation and higher activity overall.

This will have an impact on our cost levels. However, we remain committed to our communicated target of having a cost income ratio below 40%. The credit portfolio remains robust and well diversified. We're not seeing any adverse change in customer behavior, and the underlying credit quality in the portfolio remains solid. 99.8% of the portfolio is now in Stage 1 and 2. For personal customers, you can see that impairment provision increased by NOK 136 million.

There is no underlying change in the portfolio, but a minor update of our internal models. For the corporate customers, we had reversals of NOK 284 million, predominantly related to restructuring processes in offshore. Stage 1 and 2 reversals in the corporate portfolio are stable. We reiterate that the overall portfolio is robust and well diversified.

Please bear in mind that losses will vary from 1/4 to 1/4 and that the uncertainty in relation to the geopolitical and macroeconomic development has increased. Our capital position remains strong at 18.1%, with a headroom to the current FSA expectation of 130 basis points. The current requirement and the expectation increased by 10 basis points in the 1/4 to 16.8 due to the increased countercyclical buffer in several countries, of which Sweden has the largest impact.

In our capital planning, we assume long-term capital expectation of 17.7%, which include full pre-COVID countercyclical buffers across geographies. A solid profit generation contributed positively to the Tier 1 capital ratio of 36 basis points in the 1/4. Volume growth and currency effects negatively impacted Tier 1 capital ratio by 14 basis points and 11 basis points respectively.

The leverage ratio is solid at 6.4% in the 1/4, well above the regulatory requirement. With a strong Tier 1 capital ratio, profitable growth, we remain committed to our dividend policy. Summing up, we deliver a strong result driven by high quality income and good underlying performance across customer segments and product areas, as well as a robust credit portfolio.

Cost income ratio for the 1/4 ends at 40.1%. Return on equity came in at 12.7%, impacted by negative Mark-To-Market effects in the 1/4, but supported by increased income and net reversals on impairment provisions. Earnings per share came in at NOK 4.77, an increase of 11.2% compared to the same 1/4 last year.

With that, I would like to thank you for your attention and would also like to welcome you to our capital markets day in London on the fifteenth of November.

Thomas Midteide
Group Executive Vice President of Communications and Sustainability, DNB Bank

Thank you, Ida. We will open up for questions, and let me remind the online viewers that it is possible to type any questions below the window you are watching. We'll start off with Jan Erik Gjerland from ABG.

Jan Erik Gjerland
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Hello, Jan Erik Gjerland from ABG Sundal Collier. A couple of questions from my side. Firstly, on the cost side and synergies. Would you state and give any numbers of what you expect to have as synergies from the Sbanken transaction? I can see that you still can increase your number of FTEs by roughly 170 people or something quarter-on-quarter.

What should we expect going forward from number of employees? Should it still continue to increase or should decrease? And finally, on customers' behavior, is there any sign of customers repaying their mortgage faster because they take out from the deposit account? Or do they actually ask for an amortization-free period, and how many are doing so? Thank you.

Ida Lerner
CFO, DNB Bank

Would you like me to start with the first question?

Jan Erik Gjerland
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Yeah.

Ida Lerner
CFO, DNB Bank

Yeah. In terms of synergies, when it comes to Sbanken, we've said that we'll come back to that later on this fall and that still stays. In terms of the FTEs, what we have said historically and remain to say is that we first of all, the number of FTEs you'll see year to date is also of course impacted both by Uni Micro and Sbanken as such.

In addition to that, what we are targeting and working very, very diligently on is to also make sure that we are not underinvesting in strategically important areas, such as, for instance, technology as well as compliance. But what we're doing on the technology side is mainly focusing on converting external consultants into internal FTEs, and that has continued also in this 1/4.

As to customer behavior, we do not see larger shifts of customer behavior. We continue to see a normal development on deposits. There's a slight reduction this 1/4, but that is a normal seasonal variation for personal customers, so there aren't really material signs of the customers using their borrowings to, nor savings, to repay on mortgages.

We follow, of course, very closely also the demand for payment holidays, installment deferrals. See very small variations, but really nothing material that would be right to highlight. Again, stressing that unsecured credit is a very, very small part of our portfolio for personal customers that has been decreasing over time, and we see no deterioration of quality in that portfolio either.

Thomas Midteide
Group Executive Vice President of Communications and Sustainability, DNB Bank

Thank you, Jan Erik. We have Vegard Toverud from Pareto.

Vegard Toverud
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

Thank you. Ida, you mentioned that you see increased uncertainty going forward. Yet on your loan loss provisions, you're continuing to reverse some. Could you please provide us some insight into when or how your models are adapting to the increased uncertainty and when we can potentially see that in provisions?

Ida Lerner
CFO, DNB Bank

Yeah. No, no, that's a very good question. Just to point to what I mentioned in terms of the increased uncertainty, we aren't seeing any changes in terms of customer behavior. We're also not seeing any structural changes as that would make us believe that there are things happening in the portfolio that we need to take into account when looking at the impairments.

What I indicate more is that the fact that we see a larger degree of uncertainty going forward is more that we might have customer specific situations that we can't see today and that we also can't really take impairment for today. That's more that the uncertainty has increased.

In our models, we of course have a long variety of macroeconomic factors that we adjust and account for every 1/4 and so has been done this 1/4 as well. The

The main element in the macroeconomic development that has the largest impact on our portfolio and impairment levels is unemployment. Unemployment is, as Kjerstin pointed to, today very low, but we also take into account the expected unemployment levels going forward in our assessment of the impairment levels in Stage 1 and 2.

Unemployment levels of 3%, around 3% or even slightly above that is more back to normalized levels and therefore wouldn't have a significant negative impact in our loan book. In addition to that, the fact that the subsidy comes from the state in terms of the energy prices is also a support to the largest part of our portfolio.

Vegard Toverud
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay. If I could have a couple of Follow-Up questions on this topic. As far as I understand, significant parts of the negative Mark-To-Market adjustment this 1/4 comes from equity that you hold and potentially converted them from loans. At the same time, you are reversing loan loss provisions, which I assume is from the same segments. Previously, you also stated that in addition to the oil price, access to equity markets have been important for the provision levels for this segment.

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

Mm-hmm.

Vegard Toverud
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

I'm just trying to.

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

Mm.

Vegard Toverud
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

To see how the market is interpreting these, the macroeconomic uncertainty differently than your loan loss provision models.

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

I would like to develop starting by the Mark-To-Market, and thank you for the question because that gives me an opportunity to develop a little bit. Because you're absolutely right. When we refer to own share investments, these are the position that we've talked about that we've taken in companies that have been subject to restructuring at a previous point in time.

You may remember that we for the past couple of quarters have talked about a positive impact from these same positions. Again, let me stress that we are not strategically targeting to hold these over time. We hold them as long as it's deemed appropriate in relation to the specific situation of each company. So obviously these react to the market volatility that we see day by day in capital markets.

There is a difference between capital markets and the, what people may call the real economy. Also referring to our comments related to the impact of the monetary policy, it's more the sentiment, the belief about the future. It's not seen in the actual economic activity.

The restructurings that have led to taking back provisions this 1/4 is underlying and specific to those customers, and they are in the offshore sector, as Ida pointed to, and there is a high and increasing activity level in that sector. These are situations over time that we have worked with that may very well develop differently than the Day-To-Day volatility in listed capital markets.

What the models, as Ida explained, what the model captures is systematic changes, systematic macro indicators where one of the most important is unemployment and also industry specific views that we are not seeing any industry specific trends.

It's more complex to see how this picture impacts various industries than the pandemic. While saying that we acknowledge there's an increased uncertainty, it's much harder to see how it will hit. What you will see in the Stage 1 and 2 is systematic trends. These we cannot see, nor in the personal customer portfolio, nor in the corporate portfolio at the moment.

Vegard Toverud
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay, thank you.

Thomas Midteide
Group Executive Vice President of Communications and Sustainability, DNB Bank

Thank you. Next in line is Johan Strøm from Carnegie, at the back, sitting behind André, heading up our second largest owner, celebrating 200 years yesterday. Thank you for hosting a wonderful dinner.

Johan Ström
Analyst, Carnegie

Thank you, Thomas. Two questions. Ida, did I hear you say that Q4 loan growth will be slower? In that case, why? If I'm looking at the average balance sheets and the 1/4-end numbers, it looks like you had a really strong pace out of Q3.

Ida Lerner
CFO, DNB Bank

Yes. What we're saying is that in large corporate, as we've indicated before, we've had a very strong growth in particular in corporate banking in the first 1/2, and that has to some extent continued in the 1/3 1/4.

What we're saying is that we expect to see less of a loan growth in large corporate. We'll continue to focus on profitable loan growth in personal customers as well as in SME and of course also in large corporates. What we're saying is that the development going forward. Looking at the activity level we've had year to date, we expect to see a lower growth in corporate customers in the fourth 1/4.

Okay.

I agree with you. We have a very kind of strong growth coming into that and strong activity level. Of course, profitability is important for us in terms of focusing on when focusing on growth.

Johan Ström
Analyst, Carnegie

With all the repricing events we've seen and perhaps slightly slower growth, capital could end up very strong at year-end. How do you feel about the balance between keeping a very conservative capital position and increasing your payout ratio?

Ida Lerner
CFO, DNB Bank

Well, first of all, we live in uncertain times, as we stand today. We believe that the equity ratio of 18.1% is very solid and strong, and also shows the robustness, as does the leverage ratio of 6.4%. What we have said is that we will focus on maintaining loyalty to our dividend policy, and we definitely are. In addition to that, we will use share buyback to optimize the capital position, and that's something that we maintain in terms of our focus on capital planning as well.

Johan Ström
Analyst, Carnegie

Thank you.

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

There's no change in our signaling. 17.7% expected and targeted level with a buffer on top that we have not specified in view of the increasing countercyclical buffer. Dividend policy stays the same, and our attitude towards returning excess capital to shareholder is consistent.

Johan Ström
Analyst, Carnegie

Thank you, Kjerstin. Finally, just Ida, can you just repeat what you said on the NOK 2.4 billion effect from repricing? On the 50 basis point rate hikes that we've seen, I think it's 3 of them, can you give me the nominal amount on earnings impact from each expected rate hike?

Ida Lerner
CFO, DNB Bank

What I can give you is the assessed effect on NII, on an annual NII effect. The first 50 basis points, we anticipated an effect of NOK 2.5 billion, and they're now the ones that haven't been implemented yet. The 2 50s that are coming in beginning of October and November, NOK 2.4 billion each of an annual effect. What we also indicate is then that that is kinda based on the composition of the portfolio we see today.

Johan Ström
Analyst, Carnegie

Sure. Thank you very much.

Thomas Midteide
Group Executive Vice President of Communications and Sustainability, DNB Bank

Okay, next in line, Thomas Svendsen, SEB, on this side, and then Vegard again on this side.

Thomas Svendsen
Analyst, SEB

Yes, good morning. Three questions. First of all, given the cool down we see in the housing market in Norway, do you have any view on the market growth for household mortgages, the direction on that, next couple of years?

Second question is, given what we see in commercial real estate when looking around, at least in financial markets, why shouldn't we be concerned that you need to strengthen your loan loss reserves there? Finally, do you see any flows from savings deposits into money market funds that offers a higher rate than you offer?

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

I can answer one and 3, and I'll ask you to address the commercial real estate. I think in line with what we've seen in terms of credit growth for households, this has come down. It's still above 4% for the market, but it has come down. I think it's difficult to say exactly how that will develop ahead.

Some of the trends we're seeing may indicate that we would be likely to see a slower credit demand in households. We focus on sustaining profitable growth for the business across our various areas. When we say 3%-4% growth, this is a growth pace that we believe sustainable for us over time with a varying mix of the various pieces.

In the event we would have a slower demand from households, we see that we have a platform across industries in Norway and internationally related to the energy transition, which is likely to allow for higher growth in the corporate area. I think what we focus on in terms of households and personal customers is our relative position to the market.

We do believe there will be growth, but it might be less than what we've seen in the previous years. In relation to savings, I think the positive news is that we actually see no material change in behavior. We see a continued stickiness in savings agreements, which we've talked about.

We've had a very healthy growth in savings agreements of people deciding to put aside a specific amount of money and put it into interest rate funds or mutual funds every month. That is a behavior that has continued. There has been no change in behavior with people taking savings out of the market, but there's been less ad hoc saving.

Altogether, there is an impact on the total assets under management from change in market values, but this has been offset actually by a positive flow also in this 1/4. When it comes to commercial real estate, we of course follow the developments very closely, and this is one of the portfolios that we are diligently scrutinizing on a monthly basis, I would say.

It's important to first of all point to the fact that the situation in commercial real estate and the lending situation, not least in the commercial real estate, is completely different than what it has been in previous crises or economic downturns.

Also, when looking into our portfolio, 75% of the portfolio is in low risk, 94% is in Norway. Looking at the Norwegian market as such, it's also important to highlight the fact that there are less bond financing in terms of the exposure, total exposure towards commercial real estate than what it is in, for instance, Sweden, which of course makes the refinancing risk less vulnerable.

Also, when looking at the bonds that matures in 2022 and 2023, there are significantly less amount in the Norwegian commercial real estate portfolio or area than what it is elsewhere. In addition to that, we've had a very strict credit policy when it comes to commercial real estate. We focus on corporate lending, and we focus on cash flow, residual value, and strong owners that have injected significant amounts of equities. Therefore, limited exposure towards financial investments and no speculation in that area.

Thomas Midteide
Group Executive Vice President of Communications and Sustainability, DNB Bank

Thank you.

Thank you, Thomas. Next in line, Vegard again on the fourth row on this side. Line, thank you. We have Jan Erik again on the second row on that camera.

Vegard Toverud
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

Thank you. First on the deposit growth in corporate, could you give some more detail to what this is? Is this more of a temporary nature or how should we think about growth there going forward, is the question.

More on the models again. Sorry about that. If you look at the corporate real estate, are you able to provide us with some sensitivity for the provision level given, for instance, 10%-20% drop in real estate prices? And also, if you can, how often are you updating your prices for the counterparties' security in corporate real estate?

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

So-

Vegard Toverud
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

Just 1/3ly, another bank, Sparebanken Vest, have gotten some pushback on the use of a different bank sub-brand. Will this impact the way you think about the Sbanken brand?

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

Thank you, Vegard. Deposits in corporates, there is one important driver, and that is increased revenue in the oil and gas sector. That is clearly a driver to increase deposits in the corporate sector this 1/4. Important to underline that these are profitable deposits for us, but less sticky than deposits you would see in SME and retail.

There was an outflow also in the 1/4 when tax were paid, but we believe also the trend supporting future development in this area is quite strong. Another event or important feature this 1/4 was that Moody's also changed their negative outlook on our Aa rating to a neutral one, which we are pleased to see that they acknowledge the resilience in the business. There are few banks that are at this rating level.

It makes us very attractive in the corporate market. We noted the decision on Sparebanken Vest with interest. I think the key message in the feedback from the Ministry of Finance as we read it is that there needs to be a very strong clarity on the ownership. That is not leading to any change in terms of how we view the opportunities around Sbanken and DNB, that clearly has the same owner, and this will be very clear.

Ida Lerner
CFO, DNB Bank

On commercial real estate, first of all, I think it's important to distinguish between what we see in terms of the normal situation. In a normal situation, you would have an annual review of our each customer, where you assess both the security and of course the values.

If you have an increased focus on a specific sector, we also increase our focus in terms of ensuring that we have the right valuation as well as a right valuation, not the least in terms of security. For commercial real estate, that is the case today. Now we have a more frequent update in terms of the valuation if we see a significant decrease, which is important.

So far, in the Norwegian market, it's been very slow and low activity in terms of actual sale of commercial real estate estates overall, which means that we need to see a bit more in terms of what's happening in terms of the valuation of the real estates.

I'll try to give you a bit more kinda information in terms of what we see in the portfolio, where the portfolio is. If you look at the large corporate area where we have the largest single exposure, Loan-To-Values have decreased significantly over the past few years, and is approximately between 50%-55% today. That gives quite a lot of comfort as well if you look at the overall portfolio.

Vegard Toverud
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

I'm sorry for not letting it go, but isn't there a risk then that you will increase the scrutiny, and the speed of updates as well as the valuation and the impact for the provision model first when the market moves and not currently? I'm not an expert on-

Ida Lerner
CFO, DNB Bank

Sorry, I'll just interrupt you there. What we do in addition to that is the valuation we set into our models in terms of assessing the security already involves a significant amount in terms of conservatism. It's not like we take the external valuation, just put it into our models, and that's fine.

What we do is that when we assess Loan-To-Values and the security level, we take our own decisions in terms of also having a conservatism on top of that. That means that even though you will have negative developments in the overall market in terms of valuation, that itself does not have a significant impact on our portfolio or our valuation.

Vegard Toverud
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay. Thank you.

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

We feel very confident with the robustness and the resilience of the portfolio, Vegard. It is important to point out that these are models with objective reference points. It is not a factor of us speculating as to things that we haven't seen or nobody else have seen that you may believe in and scenario testing in any case.

Of course, there are management overlays to a limited degree, which was used also during the pandemic, but it needs to be specifically related. We have a conservative leverage. We focus on low-risk customers with strong debt servicing ability. That also needs to be factored in.

Vegard Toverud
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

Thank you.

Thomas Midteide
Group Executive Vice President of Communications and Sustainability, DNB Bank

Let it go. The beautiful Disney song, isn't it? Okay, Jan Erik, second round.

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

I didn't know you could sing, Thomas.

Thomas Midteide
Group Executive Vice President of Communications and Sustainability, DNB Bank

Hidden talent, yeah.

Jan Erik Gjerland
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Thomas has talent in every shapes. Just following up on Vegard's questions and looking into DNB Life. Yesterday, I think Entra, one of the largest real estate companies in Norway, wrote down some activity and properties.

Why haven't you done anything similar in DNB Life, which I think still have a quite big portfolio? Could you shed some light into what that portfolio is, how large it is, what's the risks and where you have the sort of exposures geographically, so we can understand how you can be certain that you can deliver a decent return to your policyholders also next 1/4? Second question is about the transformation from brown to green.

How can you be able to make more money on the brown economy as you are sort of supporting that transition phase, as you pointed to some quarters back? Are you going to take more, a higher margin from the brown, or do you really see that the brown is sort of keeping the current margins, and then the green ones actually gets the benefits and get better terms from the full market because that's where all of the money chasing?

How can I actually be able to extract more money from that brown supporting economy you support? Then finally, on the ESG question, in 2024 we are getting a sort of a small reporting update for the taxonomy. In 2025, I think you will have a full reporting.

How can you be certain that you will not be screened out of important investors' view because you're supporting the brown economy? That's my 3 questions. Thank you.

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

Will you do the first?

Ida Lerner
CFO, DNB Bank

Yeah.

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

I'll do the 2.

Sure. So in terms of... First of all, I'll say we won't give you that much details in terms of DNB Life's portfolio, but what I can say is that DNB Life has been very good at rebalancing that. We've seen during the 1/4 that they sold off, sure you've seen that as well. They've sold properties both in Sweden as well as in Norway at very good levels.

That has been, of course, a positive contribution. In addition to that, you have a solvency ratio of 202% in the life insurance company, which of course is a very strong deliveries. They've also worked diligently on shifting, rebalancing and now taking advantage of the increased interest rates that we're seeing in the market. I won't give you more details than that.

In relation to ESG and the transition, I think what I'd once again highlight is that we've taken a very clear position as a transition bank. We will support the customers who invest in the sustainable businesses that grow and will support our customers who need to reduce emissions, what you refer to as brown.

Overall, in this picture, what we focus on is profitability on a risk-adjusted basis. I think, referring to the past 10 years where we've been involved in oil and gas and in particular the offshore sector, I think you've seen our ability to reprice and adjust prices in accordance with increased capital consumption to the sector and in accordance with increased risk.

The turnover of our total portfolio in the large corporate sector is below 3 years, so there's a rapid turnover, and we constantly focus on optimizing prices and profitability of growth. This also goes for the energy transitions. It's not something completely different. We believe that this is the right business strategy. It's the right business strategy from a profitability point of view, but also the right business strategy from a economic transition and green shift point of view.

The regulator has come out and said very clearly that there will be no discount for what they call green financing. What there's not full clarity of is whether there will be an increased capital consumption for exposure to customers who are emitting, but this is a dynamic picture that we follow very clearly.

We are not changing our requirement on profitability for customers who are active in areas that could be defined as green. All our activities needs to be profitable from a total customer point of view. Now, taxonomy and obligation to report is something that we feel well positioned with.

We have tested from a dummy point of view what will be our Green Asset Ratio, and it's not that different from what you would see from most other banks. The taxonomy also continues to develop, and we are rated on the top levels on the sustainability ratings that are out there in the market, and we have no indication of any of our investors excluding us in view of our activity in this area.

On the contrary, we feel that many investors actually include us in view of our level of maturity with regards to working on ESG.

Thomas Midteide
Group Executive Vice President of Communications and Sustainability, DNB Bank

Thank you, Jan Erik and Kjerstin. If I interpret the body language of head of IR, Rune, most of the questions are already covered, coming in from our online viewers. Yep. Okay. Thank you for coming, all of us, and thank you for following us online, and have a beautiful autumn day. Thank you.

Kjerstin Braathen
CEO, DNB Bank

Thank you.

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