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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 18, 2021

Speaker 1

Hello, everyone, and welcome to FuelCraft's 4th Quarter 2020 Results Presentation. My name is Muthu Nopdal, Investor Relations at Fjall Crafts, and I will be guiding you through today's presentation. Due to the current situation, this event is a webcast only. However, we encourage you to submit questions through the webcast player as there will be a Q and A section at the end of the presentation. I would also like to highlight that we are hosting our Capital Markets Day later today at 9 a.

M. Central European Time and we encourage you all to also join us there. As always, this presentation is presented by our CEO and our CFO and we're starting off with Mr. Rolf Palmer.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Worten, and good morning. First, I'd like to say some words on 2020 in general, as 2020 represented last year, the time frame for the targets we stated when we are listed back in March 2018. We then introduced you to an ambitious, but from our perspective, realistic growth plan. Our ambition was to increase the numbers of delivery points from $550,000 to $875,000 by the end of 2020. And I'm very proud to announce that we reached that target, which gives us great inspiration to further growth.

We are also inspired by the fact that we according to Konta's latest customer satisfaction survey from January this year, The same survey we introduced to you 3 years ago still are number 1 when it comes to brand awareness, still number 1 when it comes to winning most customers and still number 1 among our nationwide peers when it comes to customer satisfaction. As to the financial targets we introduced, we also have outperformed both when it comes to net revenue growth as well as improvements in the EBIT margin. The only target we have been struggling a bit with is connected to our NGI segment. Our extended lines business Has been doing well, but our mobile services took a hit due to COVID-nineteen, leading to an unforeseen and significant increase in voice traffic. The customer growth target for the mobile services has been reached and we will show profitability during this year.

So all in all, we are very proud of the performance we've made during this 3 year period. Know the journey will continue And we really look forward to telling you more about our future plans in our Capital Market Day session following after our Q4 presentation. But now let me start by looking at last quarter's highlights on Page 3. We continue to grow our net revenue and EBIT adjusted figures where M and A growth is an important driver the group's growth this quarter. Net revenue increased 25% year on year and EBIT adjusted increased 40% year on year versus a strong Q4 2019.

Through our acquisitions, we have now passed 1,000,000 deliveries milestone as the NDE figures are included from the 10th November, which was when closing took place. Even though volume is sold is increasing 39% year on year, gross revenue is down 20% year on year due to relatively low sales spot prices in the quarter. In 4th quarter, we also reached our organic growth target in the mobile business, which obviously is very satisfying. Okay. We are moving on to Page number 5.

This page addresses COVID-nineteen and our recent dialogue with the consumer authorities. Starting with COVID-nineteen, The expected reduced activity following the government's measure will affect consumption in the business segment also in the Q1 as it did in the Q4. COGS within the mobile segment has been affected through 2020 due to increased voice traffic and will be also effective in the Q1 of 2021. The shutdown of sales With regards to our recent dialogue with the consumer authorities, I have the following statements. Regarding purchase price contracts, we have been instructed by the CA to include an estimate of the size of the purchasing costs and clarify our terms and conditions.

The CA has also pointed out that the names Certain purchase and price contracts need to be changed. We have implemented necessary adjustments on these matters We have been notified by the CA that this case is settled. FuelCraft has changed routines related to notification of price changes to include either SMS or e mail notification In accordance with upcoming certification rigstraw module, we have been notified by the CA that this case is settled. We have also been informed by council where the consumer council asked CA to resume the case, conduct additional inquiries and clarify CA's view prior to fuelcraft's change of routines. To our best knowledge, the CA has not yet decided how they shall respond to this request.

Next slide, Page number 6. Unspill prices have been volatile in the Q4 with a price decrease in October followed by an increase through the second half of the quarter. All three months were warmer than both normal than last year with November as much as 5.6 degrees Celsius warmer than last year, which negatively affects our volume. Next slide, Page 7. Big acquisitions always leads to increase churn during a limited takeout period.

This churn is mainly driven by cleanups and customer portfolios and by targeted attacks on competitors. What we experienced in the Q4 was that we were unable to compensate this churn due to COVID-nineteen closed stones and reduced activities in some of our important sales channels. However, at the end of the year, the consumer segment comprised 750 5,000 deliveries, which represents a growth of 211,000 deliveries year on year. The volume sold was almost 3,000 gigawatt hour, which is 38% increase from the Q4 2019. The average volume per delivery is fairly stable from 2019, hence the decrease is driven by M and A.

Next slide, please. Page number 8. At the end of the quarter, the business segment comprised 107,000 electricity deliveries, which represents an increase of around 2,700 deliveries in the quarter. The volume sold was around 2,100 gigawatt hour, an increase of 40% compared to Q4 2019. The increase is driven by M and A and average volume per delivery is down 16% year on year.

And in addition to effects from COVID-nineteen at higher temperatures, the figures are affected by the inclusion of Innoscoff, which has a relatively lower volume per delivery. Next slide, Page number 9. As mentioned earlier, we reached our growth target within mobile and including the subscribers in the GE brand, We had 132,000 mobile subscribers at the end of the quarter. The alliance volume is down 7% affected by the temperatures, Bert, the extended alliance concept is growing with almost 10,000 deliveries this quarter and comprised 56,000 deliveries by year end. We have also established a new reporting segment this quarter.

The Nordic segment is comprising our Swedish and Finnish activity as from November 2020. The segment had 164,000 deliveries and delivered a volume of almost 500 gigawatt hour in the quarter. So now we are moving over to financials. Uli Johan, the floor is yours. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Thank you and good morning, everyone. I will start off by taking a quick look at the 4th quarter financials, then moving on to full year figures compared with our financial targets. Starting off at page 11. We finished the 4th quarter with adjusted net revenue of NAR464,000,000 on group level. This is up 25% from Q4 of 2019 and we have a net revenue improvement across all segments.

Growth through M and A is the main driver for the increase. The quarter started off with decreasing and low prices in the first half, followed by increasing prices in the second half of the quarter. Looking at the last 12 months adjusted net revenue on the right hand side, We see a 20% increase driven by both organic growth and M and A. Moving on to Page 12. Due to significantly better market conditions than normal in 2019, Q4 EBIT adjusted 2019 is a very strong comparable to match for Q4 of 2020.

Despite this, we see an adjusted EBIT improvement of SEK 20,000,000 year on year, representing a 14% growth. The improvement is driven by M and A growth, but EBIT improvement in the business segment is also an important factor. The adjusted EBIT margin in Q4 of 2020 is decreasing 4 percentage points year on year. However, looking at the last 12 months adjusted EBIT Margin on the right hand side, we see a 1 percentage point increase from 38% to 39%. Okay.

Let's break the numbers down to reporting segments, page 13. Starting off on the left hand side with the consumer segments. In the consumer segment, the adjusted net revenue is increasing 17% year on year to NOK 309 1,000,000. The increase is mainly driven by M and A growth. The EBIT adjusted level of SEK98 1,000,000 is a decrease of SEK6 1,000,000 year on year Brings the adjusted EBIT margin down to 34% in Q4 of 2020.

Lower EBIT margin in the acquired inland stock portfolio is affecting segments Total adjusted EBIT margin negative. Moving on to the business segment on the right hand side. We have an adjusted Net revenue of R122 million. This represents an increase of 28% and the increase comes both from power sales, value added services and the acquisition of Inland Scotland. The EBIT adjusted level is NOK 72,000,000 which gives The 7 percentage point increase in adjusted EBIT margin year on year.

This is mainly driven by product margin expansion. Together with growth and growth from the acquisition of Innostaff, this brings the adjusted EBIT margin up to 59% in Q4 of 2020. Moving on to Page 14. In the new growth initiatives, we see a 22% improvement in adjusted net revenue year on year, Bringing us up to 15,000,000 in the Q4 of 2020. The improvement is driven by Alliance.

The EBIT adjusted decreased by 1,700,000 And the decrease is driven by mobile, which also in the Q4 due to COVID-nineteen was negatively impacted by higher voice activity and thus higher cost of goods sold. As stated earlier, we reached the 125,000 subscriber milestone by year end 2020. Looking at the right hand side, we have a new segment, Nordic. As of now, this comprises Switch Nordic Green with the brand Nordic Queen Amity, operating in Sweden and Finland. Fjall Craft acquired the company in mid November 2020 and the adjusted net revenue from this period Amounted to NOK 18,000,000 and adjusted EBIT amounted to NOK 6,000,000.

The segment has been affected by lower volumes and COGS effects due to COVID-nineteen. Kjell Erik Andersson, Head of Nordic will tell you more about this segment in our Capital Markets Day presentation later on today. Stay tuned. Okay. Moving on to Page 15.

Quick look at the net working capital slide tells us that net working capital is still negative And amounted to negative NOK 106,000,000 by year end. Compared with last quarter, we have a 133% volume increase and 56% price Compared with last year, we have a reduction of NOK 73,000,000 in net working capital. And in Q4 of 2020, the prices were 62% lower than last year, But the volume was 39% higher. As stated in earlier presentations as well, the continuous improvements in invoicing prices are contributing positively as well as the post payment practice of our certificates. Moving on to Page 16.

The cash generation is still strong and the cash EBIT adjusted, as you see inside the frame, is SEK 149,000,000 in 4th quarter. The net cash position was negative SEK 344,000,000 by year end 2020, largely affected by the cash outflow related to the S and G acquisition. Okay. Let's go on to have a full look at the full year financials in comparison with the financial targets. Starting off at group level Page 18.

On the left hand side, We see a new all time high of NOK1.54 billion in adjusted net revenue. This represents a growth of 20%, which is well above target. Also adjusted for positive M and A effects. The main driver is product margin improvements, but also value added services, Organic growth and growth from acquisitions contributes positively. On the right hand side, we see that we also have an all time high EBIT adjusted of NOK608,000,000 which gives an adjusted EBIT margin of 39%.

This is an increase of 1 percentage point from last year, Slightly higher than the EBIT margin we targeted and in line with the target we told you from Q3 reporting. Continuing to Page 19. Starting off with the consumer segment. On the left hand side, see that the adjusted net revenue of SEK1105 million represents an increase of 23% from 2019. This is well above target and is driven by favorable market dynamics as well as positive M and A effects.

The adjusted EBIT Of SEK435 million is an increase of SEK 104 million and gives an adjusted EBIT margin of 39%, which is stronger than initial target and in line with revised targets. In the business segment, we have an adjusted net revenue growth of 12% up to SEK377,000,000. The margin improvement and M and A effects Positively. And the net revenue growth is above target despite COVID-nineteen and reduced consumption. The adjusted EBIT of NOK 206,000,000 is an increase of NOK 24,000,000 This gives an adjusted EBIT margin of 55%, which is slightly higher than targeted.

The new growth initiative segment Delivers a 5% reduction in adjusted net revenue from 2019. During COVID-nineteen, we have seen an increased voice activity driving costs Good. So providing unlimited voice activity at a set price in the mobile market, we run the risk of a margin contraction in occasions like this. The adjusted EBIT performance of negative €39,000,000 is lower than initial target but in line with the revised target from 2nd quarter reporting. Moving on to Page 20, I will do a quick comment on our performance regarding CapEx and dividend.

In the Q2 of 2020, we revised our CapEx target and stated it to be in the area of €65,000,000 to €70,000,000 annually. With the CapEx of SEK 65,000,000 in 2020, we are in line with targets. Our dividend target has been stable and we proposed A dividend per share of 3.5 knots with a payout ratio of 100% of adjusted net income, well above the target of 80%. That's all from Mifanar. Morten will now facilitate the Q and A session.

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Oleo. We are now moving over to the Q and A session, and we will Give the viewers some time to submit their questions as there is some time delay on the broadcast. But we have received one question that we can begin with. It's as the following. You state that the case with the consumer authorities is settled.

There has been some stories that you need to repay customers that

Speaker 2

I can answer that question. From our perspective, there is no legal reason for such a claim. We have our contracts conditions and we have followed those to 100%. So from our perspective, this is Stories and there is no reason for such a claim. Obviously, the CEA agreed upon this when they settled the case and gave us this notification that the case was settled.

So I don't know any timeframe to state. I think that have to be my answer actually.

Speaker 1

Good. We will give it a few more moments in case there are other questions. We have received a second question. It's like this. Regarding the Consumer segment, Firstly, your net revenue per kilowatt hour is down 15% year on year.

Can you share some lights on why product margins I did see this drop. Do you want to say something about that, Oleo?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think we will come back to some of this in the outlook later on. But as stated, the Q4 2019 was a very strong quarter. And due to that, it's quite Obvious for us that the Q4 of 2020 was hard to beat the Q4 of 2020. So yes, I think that's a quick comment on that.

Speaker 1

The second part of the question was regarding EBIT margin in the consumer segment, which is down, driven by an increase in costs and whether we expect costs to move somewhat down in 2021 due to synergies from Nolasco. I can comment on that. We have stated quite clearly that we The SEK 30,000,000 OpEx synergies on an annual basis on a full year basis once these are fully taken out and this will be gradually realized throughout 2021. So yes, you should expect some effects from synergies from that transaction. Another question here is regarding the Q1.

Prices have been high in the Q1. Can you give some comments on the market development in the Q1. I can make a quick comment on that. It's Quite clear that the market dynamic has been different this Q1 compared to how it was, for instance, in 2020. So definitely, it's a market that is more challenging than a market that is with the decreasing prices.

But other than that, we maintain our outlook as we will Go further into on our Capital Markets Day presentation, and I think that will be the statement from us on that. We have a couple more questions. One is The following, how should we think about capital allocation going forward, dividend versus growth opportunities?

Speaker 3

Yes, I can comment on that. We will as we'll come back to this in the outlook later on as well in the Capital Markets But we are keeping our dividend policy at least 80% of net income. And we also state that we will have We think that the leverage level will rise somewhat up to 2x to 2.5x NIBDA going forward.

Speaker 1

Good. Last question is the following. Did the case with the consumer authorities have a negative impact on net revenue or margin in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

That's very difficult to say. Of course, We are not that comfortable with being in the spotlight as a category captain for this industry. But it is very difficult to say in With perspective, it affected our margins and our Customer intake, really, I think that the COVID-nineteen had a much L'Anjour effect on our operation. I think that we have And so the calls and we have talked to our customers in a very good way. And so I don't think that actually, I think that the customers and our operations have Been taken very well care of during the Q4 and also now in the beginning of this Q1.

So It is very hard to say. We take this very seriously. But what's the real impact? We have to see this in a historical perspective, maybe a year from now to answer that question actually.

Speaker 1

Okay. That concludes the Q and A session and the Q4 presentation. And we encourage you all to also join us on our Capital Markets Day, which starts in roughly half an hour. Thank you for your attention, and have a good day.

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