Lerøy Seafood Group ASA (OSL:LSG)
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Apr 24, 2026, 4:25 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Nov 11, 2020

Speaker 1

Hello. Welcome to Leeroy Sifo Group's Third Quarter Presentation 2020. My name is Henning Burt Stapp, CEO of Nodociflo Group. And with me today, I have CFO, Shul Mahl. First of all, Leary Seaford Group is a fully integrated company of both Redfish and whitefish.

We just saw our value chain for redfish. And our goal is to create the world's most efficient and sustainable value chain for seafood. The large extensive investments we have made over a long period of time are now starting to yield results. First of all, I will take you through the highlights in the quarter, then Stuart will take you through the key financial figures, and then I will come back and look at supply and demand and also outlook for next year. Now, Leary Seaford Group is reporting in 3 different segments, farming, wild catch, pulp sales and distribution.

And first of all, I will go through the overall highlights in the quarter. This is a fairly relatively good quarter with an EBIT of NOK370 1,000,000. And it's a little bit lower than what we had last year, where we had around NOK 500,000,000. The main reason for that is lower earnings in the Whitefish and which has been yes, it's been a more difficult period the last two quarters because of COVID. And so very tough situation for the whitefish the last 6 months, also for the salmon, but more for the wildfish than for the salmon.

If we look at the growth from Fosmold Investments, we are on track and we expect significant growth going into 2021. For this year, we expect harvest including associates around 183,000 tonne for 2020. And we expect a harvest of 205,000 to 210,000 tonne for 2021. And we have further potential to grow beyond this. And we expect for this year to have around 70,000 ton of whitefish from Lere Harfisk.

This quarter, we harvested 44,000, about 44,000 ton compared to 46,000 tonne last year. And we had a cash volume of whitefish of 11,000 tonne compared to 13,000 tonne last year. And the EBIT for fair value adjustment of 3.70 compared to SEK 500 same quarter last year. Farming highlights. First of all, if we look at the prices in the quarter, it's yes, it's about the same as same quarter last year, a little bit by NOK 1.

And that is reduced a lot compared to Q2, where we see prices, which is NOK10 lower. And this is, of course, it's normal for the season, or for this period that we see lower prices compared to the first half. Yes, higher export volumes continuing to impact trade prices, but we see improvements going into yes, going into this quarter and also late Q3. The contract share is about 31% and the price realization for the contracts is higher than the spot prices in this quarter. And we also mentioned with the last presentation that we expected significantly lower cost in Q3 compared to Q2 and this is also happened.

And so we have significantly reduced the cost in Q3 compared to Q2. And the EBIT in farming is NOK 7 compared to NOK 7.9 in 2019. Then if we look at the farming volumes, the guiding for 2020 and also 2021, if we look at 2021, we are online with what we have estimated earlier. So in Norway, a total of around 170,000 tonne, 36,000 tonne in Nord in Leraora, 67,000 tonne in Lera Mid and 67,000 tonne in Leeromit. And it's good to see that we are improving and going from 150,000 to 170,000 tonne.

And then we have Northcott Hubrik, where we have 50% ownership. Our share there is 13,000 tonnes, so a total of 183 1,000 tonnes. And then if we look into 2020 tonnes, we expect 47,000 tonnes in Levego. So 11,000 tonne increase, 70,000 tonne in Leveld and 75,000 tonne in Leveldshire Tor. So a total of 192,000 tonne.

And our part of Norskot Arruk, 18,000 tonnes, so a total of 200 and 10,000 tonne, so an increase of 27,000 tonne. Like I said, we have had a challenging quarter for wild catch, significantly impacted by COVID-nineteen with lower prices and also low catch rates. And like I said, the cash volume is 11,000 tonne, which is 16% down. And significant share of catch of corn in Q1 'twenty and low catches in Q3. And yes, so that's one of the main reasons.

EBIT of $215,000,000 year to date EBIT is about $215,000,000 compared to $252,000,000 in 2019. Now we will see and we expect improvements going into Q4 for the whitefish catch and also the catch species that we're going to catch. And this is showing our remaining quarter of 2020. So as you've seen, we have 7,100 tonnes of Cod to catch compared to last year, it's about the same level. And we have Seitz, 5,300 tonne and Haddock, 8,400 tonne.

And we expect to catch about 70,000 tonne in total for this year. If we look at the BAP sales and distribution, it's been a very good quarter. It shows that our investments and our in the downstream activities all over Europe and in major markets is really showing improvements. And we have an EBIT margin in this quarter of close to 3% compared to 2.3% in the same quarter last year and EBIT of SEK 131,000,000 compared to SEK109,000,000 last year. So I'm very happy to see the development in this segment and we still have a lot of potential improvements to do going forward and available capacities.

So that's good. Then, Sjo will take you through the key financial figures.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Henning. So we've been some fearsome quarters, both second half in 'nineteen and start of 2020, where we have not performed according to our own expectations. We have seen challenges declaring our farming operations. And we're very glad to see that we are seeing significant improvements in production in sea and also significant improvements in profitability.

Whitefish is challenging with less demand from the COVID restrictions downstream and in touch, we have a good development. And then looking at this quarter, and the main drivers on the latter lines, you can see that our harvest volume is down 4%, basically in line with last year. We have a slightly lower profitability per kilo, which is driven by a lower price achievement. Our costs are also down, but price achievement is more down. Into Whitefish, it's difficult to view on 1 quarter alone.

But there's no doubt that the profitability is very weak this quarter. In sum, this gives us EBIT of 370,000,000 compared to 501 last year. We have a significant improvement in associated companies. Our operation in UK is a key driver. I will return to that.

Net finance, about same level as last year and earnings per share, then down 11%.

Speaker 1

Looking at

Speaker 2

the year to date numbers, our revenue is down, not so much. This is not due to activity. It's due to general price level. Our depreciation and amortization are up. We've made significant investment recently, yes, in all parts of the value chain, including growers, including smolts, including industrial facilities.

We've not fully utilized these as of today, but we will utilize them even more into 2021, as our guiding indicates. That gives us EBIT of $508,000,000 which is down 23% from last year. Again, looking at key drivers, we have harvested more fish. We also have a higher biomass in sea. So in sum, we have better production this year than last year.

Our profitability per kilo is down. That is due to the fact that we have higher costs year to date. And we have also a lower price realization. On Whitefish, the picture is different looking year to date compared to the quarter alone. And that is due to good, a very good first quarter.

And we were lucky in timing of our catches. So, year to date, there's not that big fall in profitability. In sum, our EPS is down 27%. Return on capital employed is around 11%, which is below our target. And we do expect that the investment in recent years should give a basis, obviously, dependent on how prices develop to see increase in profitability in coming years.

Looking at our balance sheet, non current asset is up and we've invested in licenses buying from Norwegian State. That's the increase in intangibles. We have received a new drawer in our Whitefish segment. We are currently building small facilities in Northern Norway, LaksaPure and Central Norway, Belsvik, which are key drivers for the increase in tangible fixed asset. Biological assets are up.

We built quite a lot of biomass this quarter. This number is up 7%. So, value of the biomass is up 7%, then the biomass itself is up 2%. So, the value per kilo is higher, which does not correspond typically with the falling cost. What's important to know is that we have a lower average size efficiency.

So, we have more efficiency. Also, effect following the investment in large or small is that each small is more expensive. And our ability to utilize that size through artificial larger, but also our ability to scale our cost base. In here, it will give us higher production makes us expect that we will see continued declining cost into next year. Other working capital items, we have slightly higher whitefish inventories.

We have slightly higher red fish than finished goods inventories. We have lower receivables, but nothing dramatic. Net interest bearing debt is around 3,500,000,000. We believe we have a strong balance sheet. Looking at changes in net interest bearing debt, it is our soon return to developments year to date.

Just looking at this quarter, due to changes in payment schedules, paid taxes later this year than last year, We have invested a lot, including $8,000,000 in licenses from Norwegian government. And then looking more on year to date figures, we know that our profitability is down from factors already covered. We are paying slightly less tax. With significant buildup of biomass, we have built also working capital. So, cash from operations is 1,800,000,000 compared to 2,200,000,000 last year.

We are investing heavily in facilities already mentioned, and also buying licenses, which is the reason for the increase in investments. And we paid slightly less dividend. I think, in sum, cash development this year has been, despite the challenging market situation, satisfactory. We have kept our focus on long term investments and building biomass, which we expect will give us growth then into 2021. This slide is just to show you what are the changes from last year.

And as already commented, the big change you can see is the whitefish segment, which is down 90,000,000 compared to zinc value last year. Looking then into farming, Le Roa has seen some challenges. We had a fire at the small facility early 'nineteen. We had LGs in 'nineteen. Then we had challenges with winter months, first half this year.

So, it's been a challenging period of time. What we said at the 2nd quarter presentation was that we are seeing vast improvements. And LEO has historically delivered very strong performances. And it's very comforting to see that we are on a recovery back to that. So, there's a significant cost cut compared to previous quarter, significant improvement in quality.

And on spot prices down DKK10 per kilo, You can see our profitability has doubled. So, we've chosen to call that covering. We expect lower cost in Q4, we expect a significant growth in harvest volume into 2021. Looking at the level mid, Last year, second half, we saw challenges with our growth basically in the farming operation and we lost growth, a significant number of 1,000 tonnes lost last second half. We saw some challenges also in September of this year.

Luckily, with focus, with operations, we relatively quickly get them to normal and back to our expectations. We are seeing reduction in cost this quarter. We expect cost to stay in the hold in Q4, and we expect to see improvements, a little bit more production next year. And then the new smolt facility, which is currently being built, which will be finalized during 2021, close to 2022, should give a potential for significant growth going forward. Then let us shuttle, we are losing money, which is no good and is not satisfactory.

We asked this quarter also harvesting the high cost spring 2019 generation, which has had a high cost point and which we've been harvesting in recent quarters. On drought, we are seeing much better production cost, but we still are hampered by a quite massive volume growth in the market, 25% up year to date. And when you are losing money, there is no alternative to getting better. And therefore, it is very positive to see that recent years' efforts are starting to work. We are now seeing the best production these days that we ever seen in this region.

And we feel we are on path to an improvement. It's not going to be 100% where we would like it to be next year. But the important thing is that we believe we are moving in the right direction, following investment in smalt, better quality smalt, larger smolts, following investment in well boat, getting boat facilities, following investments in people and focus, following investment in genetics. So, we believe we are moving in the right direction and that we should see better numbers from the offshore trend going forward. Then wild catch is already well covered.

It's been a very challenging quarter, both on the trolling side and on the land based industry due to demand not where we expected it to be going into the year. So, we've catched a low volume. We are seeing lower prices, but as highlighted, and year to date figures are much better. For the land industry, there are some underlying improvements, which are all very positive. Unfortunately, those are not visible in the financial numbers due to the fact that the conventional loan market is not performing as well as during the COVID-nineteen restrictions.

This value added processing sales distribution is already covered by Henning. We think it's very positive that we see in some of our downstream factories significant underlying improvements, which makes us positive on a potential into 2021. Then, Nosgothauberg, our joint operations in a social company in the UK. Also here, we saw a challenging second half of twenty nineteen, which has impacted us also in North Scott. New small facility is in place.

It's positive to see that releases from this facility is going according to plan. And we expect to see significant growth into 2021. And it is positive also there, obviously, that financial performance is much better than what it was 1 year ago. And with that, I give the word back to you, Henning.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much, Stuart. Then I will look into the supply and demand side. I'll start with this slide, a lot of numbers, but it's a lot of information in it. First of all, if we look at 2021, we see that in Europe, there is about 0 growth in Europe this year. In Americas, it's about 10.4% increase and a global growth of 4 point 2%.

And I think this is the highest global volume of Atlantic salmon ever. If we look into 2021, the global volume is flat. So it's about the same level. Europe is up 4.6%. Americas up yes, down 7%.

And it's mainly Chile, which is reducing their volume in 2021 because of biological challenges. If we look at the spot prices, it's fluctuating. And normally, the prices, as I mentioned, is going a little bit down second half compared to first half of the year. And we see 2020, we had NOK 68 in 1st quarter, NOK 58 in 2nd quarter and NOK 47 in 3rd quarter. And so far in the Q4, it's about NOK 44.

And then but normally, end of this quarter, the price is starting to hike up. But we will see what's happening this year. Of course, we are in the middle of a very special situation with COVID-nineteen. So it will hopefully, we'll see trend going up towards Christmas. One reason for that is that we see that the volume in October, we had the highest volume ever in Norway, so 140,000 tonne, about 130,000 tonne in November.

And we will go about 125,000 tonne in December, which is the highest demand month for Atlantic salmon. So hopefully, we will see a trend going upward for the prices. Also, if we look at Europe, it's the same picture, but a little bit higher volume in UK in December. If we look at Americas, we have seen months with a very high increase growth and but we see at the end of the year and going into December, the growth is not there anymore. And yes, and we see also for the worldwide, we see that we have had a yes, a growth up to 10% in the top months.

If we look at consumption, we see a growth of 4% in Q3 and we see 7% increase in EU. EU has been very strong. And it's basically the retail segment that is pulling the market up. A lot of the sales of Atlantic segment is in the retail at the moment. In the U.

S. A, probably the same, up 9%, but there you probably will see a lower value of than what we had in the year. And we see 8% decrease in other markets. And the main reason for the decrease in other markets is China in this quarter. And we see that China is down by 52%.

If we look at year to date, September, we have a growth of 1% globally for Atlantic salmon and 3% up in EU, 6% up in the U. S. And 4% down in other markets. And you also see here that this China that is the most challenging market within this mono market segment. And we hope to see a more stable development again in China going forward.

If we look at the TROT, Lira is one of the largest producer of trots in the world and definitely the largest producer of trought in Norway. As we've said earlier, it's been difficult for the trough. Also in Q3, we've had a challenging situation with the prices with much lower prices compared to the salmon. But we also mentioned that we expect to see that the trough will be closer to the salmon price level going forward. And we've seen end of the Q3 and end to Q4 that the prices of Toronto has been increasing, while the prices of salmon has been increasing.

So it's more on a stable level relatively. And we also expect lower volumes going forward into 2021. And the main reason for the low price in Europe this year is that we have had 10% increase in Europe and a 17% increase in Norway, which has affected the price level of Jolt dramatically. But we are positive with the global reduction of 2% and a reduction in Europe of 6% and a reduction in Norway of 12% in the supply of Trot. And this slide is showing the monthly growth for Trood.

And we see so far for this year, it's been a growth of 24% and you see that in some months, it's been up to 50% 60% growth. And then it's hard to go in and out and to develop new markets. And so a more stable production would be better. And if we look into next year, we see a higher stability. We see that until October, we will have a huge reduction in the supply.

And we expect that the market, the supply and the demand will be more in balance for next year compared to what we have seen in the last couple of years. So we have a very positive view on the short going forward. Then outlook for February 4th quarter. Like we have said, the COVID-nineteen is unpredictable. We have seen large improvements during Q3 and also expect that these improvements will go into cross border.

We expect the contract share for Saldan of 30% to 35%. And we expect a decrease of cost in farming. And yes, we have total harvest volume of 183,000 tonne for this year. And yeah, and if we look into next year, 2021, we expect significant growth in Leary. In Norway, we will harvest about 192,000 tonne and including associates like North Scott Harbor in Scotland and Owa Shear, we expect a total of 205,000 tonne to 200 and 10,000 tonne.

Yes. And we still see a significant potential in Whitefish, even though we've had some challenging quarters. Of course, Q1 was fantastic, the best quarter ever for the Whitefish. And the Q2 and Q3 has been difficult. It will be some improvements going into Q4 and we expect that 2021 will be we will do improvements on the industry side on land and also expect that we will have a good fishery and increased quotas for the whitefish.

So, yeah. So to summarize, we feel that we have a good operation at the moment. We are taking out improvements through the whole value chain. And we believe that we will continuously make improvements going forward and into 2021 and 2022. Thank you very much.

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