Lerøy Seafood Group ASA (OSL:LSG)
Norway flag Norway · Delayed Price · Currency is NOK
43.52
-0.32 (-0.73%)
Sep 14, 2026, 4:25 PM CET
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q3 2019

Nov 15, 2019

Henning Beltestad
CEO, Lerøy Seafood Group

Good morning, and welcome to third quarter presentation of Lerøy Seafood Group 2019. With me today, I have Sjur Malm, CFO of Lerøy Seafood Group. First of all, I will take you through some highlights in the quarter, Sjur will take you through the key financial figures, I will come back and talk a little bit about the outlook and supply and demand of salmon and also the whitefish. Third quarter, we achieved EBIT before fair value adjustment of NOK 500 million. We harvested about 46,000 ton. We have a catch volume of whitefish of 13,000 ton. We have EBIT all-inclusive of NOK 10. The contract share in the quarter is about 32%. The net interest-bearing debt is NOK 2.8 million. The harvest guidance of 2019 is in Norway, 158,000-162,000 ton, depending on the price development the last five, six weeks.

For 2020, we have a guidance of 170,000-175,000 ton in Norway. Including associates, we expect 172,000-175,000 ton. For 2020, about 183,000-188,000 ton. If we look at the historic figures per quarter, we see that this is on the weak side compared to the earlier quarters, and we have to go back all the way to third quarter 2016 to be at the same level as today. In a way, we are not 100% satisfied with the result in this quarter. Lerøy Seafood Group is reporting in three segments: farming, wild catch, and VAP, sales and distribution. We start with the farming. The price in this quarter is about 11% lower than the same quarter last year. It's down by NOK 6.2 and NOK 13.5 compared to Q2 this year, so much lower prices in this quarter.

The trout prices is below the salmon. Still, looking at the volumes that is harvested of trout in this quarter, 11% price reduction is not that bad. We feel that the market expansion and the development for trout is very strong at the moment and will give some results in price achievement going forward. The contract prices in this quarter is higher than the spot prices. The cost is marginal down from second quarter 2019, and the biomass is 2% lower than same time last year. For the farming volumes and the guidance for 2019 and split per region, we see Lerøy Aurora in 2019, we expect 33,000 ton. Lerøy Midt, 66,000 ton. Lerøy Sjøtroll, 61,000 ton. For 2020, we see a strong increase in volume in Lerøy Aurora from 33,000- 40,000 ton.

Lerøy Midt, we expect to be at the same level and Lerøy Sjøtroll to increase to 66,000 ton and a total Norwegian production of 172,000 ton. Our share, 50% share in Norskott of 13,000 ton and a total of 185,000 ton in Norway next year. If we look at the wild catch, the catch volume of 13,000 ton is 8% down compared to last year. It has been a higher share of shrimp and saithe than corresponding quarter, but this mix will change again in fourth quarter. The average price is down by 3%, mainly because of the composition of the catch. If you look at the cod, the price is up 6%, and the haddock is up 4%, and saithe is up by 33%. We feel very good how we see a very good demand for saithe at the moment, and that's good.

On the industry side, we see it's still challenging with the increase in raw material prices. We expect improvement in this segment going forward. If you look at the remaining quotas, we have 7,200 ton quota of cod this year, compared to 6,500 ton last year. The haddock is 2,300 ton and the saithe 1,600 ton. A total quota of 11,000 ton for fourth quarter. We expect to take the quota that we have. Yeah. Sales and distribution. Very strong quarter also Q3. So far this year it's been really a good development in this segment. We had an EBIT of NOK 109 million compared to NOK 72 million in Q3 2018. There is still room for improvement within this segment. Sjur will take you through the key financial figures.

Sjur Malm
CFO, Lerøy Seafood Group

Yes, thank you, Henning. There's particularly two factors impacting our quarterly performance, and also performance in the start of the fourth quarter. One is obviously price, which Henning has highlighted, and the price drop, which was higher than we expected. Secondly, there's been a high sea lice pressure in central Norway. We've been able to keep our sea lice levels low, but it's been done through high number of treatments which impact growth. Those, I would say, are the two key factors which are different from what we expected going into the quarter. Looking into the financial in detail, we are a seafood company, but still the salmon part of operation is a key determination or the biggest driver for changes in our profitability.

Looking into the drivers for salmon profitability, we can see that we've harvested 24% more volume in 2019, third quarter, compared to same quarter last year. We also see that we have a lower profitability per kilo, and that is driven much by price but also by a cost increase. Those factors are kind of like the key reason to why our operating result is down third quarter this year compared to last year. Also, as I will return on income from associates, we've had some challenges in U.K. which impact profitability, I will get back to that. Overall, lower profitability due to lower profits per kilo of salmon, driven a lot by a decline in prices. Year to date, we've harvested about the same volume as last year.

Again, profitability per kilo is down. It's price and it's also cost increase. In sum, our operating result then, before fair value adjustment, is down 25% from last year. Income from associates is also down, again, due to weak development Q3 in the U.K. Those are the key factors. Looking into our balance sheet, it's worth highlighting that the implementation of IFRS 16, which is well described in a note, impact the balance sheet. I would look then rather on key factors, obviously, is that we have invested a lot in new smolt facilities and new boats in the whitefish business, and the tangible assets are up. Given lower growth than expected in the quarter, the average weight of fish going out of quarter is a bit below our expectation and is a driver for higher cost of the biomass.

When looking at kilo, because our biomass in volume is down 2% and cost is up 5%. Other factors in the quarter is a very positive working capital development. We've reduced inventories and also that working capital impact I will highlight on the following slide. We see our net interest-bearing debt is reduced significantly from last year, and we believe we have a strong and flexible balance sheet. Looking into the cash flow, the key point there is the impact from changes in working capital. In this quarter, we released NOK 560 million in working capital. I think the one is lower inventories, but also this quarter paid our feed bills at 30 days rather than 10 days. It's still a low level, but that's part of the reason for the working capital release.

We have invested NOK 280 million this quarter, which is less than last year. You can see that we invested NOK 1 billion here today compared to NOK 1.7 billion last year. Obviously the number for the full year will be significantly below 2018. As I will return to, we've also been granted the necessary licenses to build a NOK 600 million smolt facility in Central Norway. We expect CapEx to be higher again in 2020. This is the key factors. Overall, good working capital development and a significant reduction in net interest-bearing debt in the quarter. Looking then at the different segments, this clearly highlights where the change is from last year. It is in the farming business. There's been about the same development in whitefish.

There's been a very positive development downstream, but due to lower price and higher costs, our profitability in farming is lower. Looking into the different segments, it's fair to say that we've had more than normal number of unforeseen events in Lerøy Aurora, unforeseen events in 2019. At the start of 2019, the smolt facility in Lerøy Aurora burnt down, or part of it burnt down. There was more toxic algae in parts of this region in Q2. It's not been a easy year in Aurora . As we said last time we met at the quarter presentation, the growth going into Q3 was back to normal. That is the picture we've seen also in this quarter. Good development.

That will lead to, as we already have said, the lower cost this quarter than previous quarter, and we continue to expect a lower cost figure for the fourth quarter. Also, given disappointing price development, we've held a holding back volume, having a higher inventory going into 2020 and expecting to see significant growth in production volume in 2020. Looking beyond 2020 growth potential, we are investing and have invested in a three-stage smolt facility CapEx plan in Aurora . The average smolt size in 2020 will be double of what it was in 2019, and also the final stage of the smolt facility will be finalized in December 2020. We expect to see growth in volumes also beyond 2020. Looking at Lerøy Midt, I would say performance year to date, by the time we met last time, was good. We had a good start of the year.

September and October, particularly October, has been very challenging. The challenge has been a high sea lice pressure in the region, which has given a high number of treatments in our operation. Treatments means less feeding, means less growth. I would say we've had good control, but it cost us also a lot in terms of growth. Still, I would say we've done a very good job, and we have had low mortalities on these treatments, and it's been a more challenging quarter than expected for this region. I would thank everyone working there for all their strong efforts. We were expecting and what's been impacting is the spring 2018 generation, which is harvesting then a little bit Q3 more, Q4 and Q1. We were expecting a significant cost decline on that generation.

With the loss of 7,000 tons, which is a significant share of it, that will not materialize. We have a higher cost figure this quarter than last quarter, and we expect the same, most likely less, next quarter. We will not see the cost decline we expected going into the quarter. Beyond that, you need a lot of papers from government to be allowed to build things in Norway, and finally, we've been allowed to start the building of our new smolt facility in Lerøy Midt. It is a NOK 600 million investment. It's already commenced, and we expect to make good progress over the coming year. This will have an impact on production figures, particularly from 2022. Still some years ahead, but we are very happy that we have started the building, and that will give room for growth and cost reductions in Central Norway going forward.

Looking then into Lerøy Sjøtroll, our operation in Hordaland. Obviously, it's impacted by a lower price, and this is a highest cost region, so this is also then obviously where the impact of the price decline is the biggest. We have slightly lower cost this quarter than last quarter, but it's still at the high level. As Henning said, the price realization on trout, which was 54% of the volume this quarter, is lower than salmon. It is also important to mention that the cost development on trout has been better than for salmon. As one of the key initiatives to improve this region, we have built a new smolt facility, which is about finished at Kjærelva in Hordaland. That facility delivered its first large smolt in August, but we see that some rebuilds are necessary to get the results we would like.

That means that there are some delays of the finalization of some six months, which obviously we would like not to be seen or shouldn't have happened. In reality, what this means is that it's about 1.4 million fishes, which was supposed to be put into sea in October and January, December, which was put into sea at 170 g in August instead. The number of fish is not impacted, and the growth of that fish has been good. Far on growth, we haven't lost anything. Obviously, part of what we are going to gain on this investment is risk reductions, and it will take a longer time before we see the full impact of that. Also, next release here will be in March, and that's on winter temperature.

That's a very important release for us to be able to do that in March, and that is our expectation as of today. We expect this investment together with new harvesting boat to be participators in increasing smolt yield. We also expect some of the choices we've done on genetics to help us into 2020. Also in 2019, we have been impacted particularly on growth due to ISA situation close to our sites and a very strict zone structure and the fact that we've not been allowed to move fish. That means that we haven't had enough concessions, basically, on two sites to do the feeding like we would like to do it. We expect to see improvements here in 2020 and even more from 2021. On our Whitefish Wild Catch segment, trawling fleet is performing well. There's a good price development on key species.

In the land industry, it's been a challenging quarter, and it is normally because it's a bit off-season. Quarter in sum is about the same level as last year, which is a decent and healthy result. We are doing significant investment also in the land industry to improve profitability. We expect to see, not in Q4, but from next year, there is a volume build-up in some of these new investments, which we believe will help profitability going into 2020. Looking at our U.K. operation, Scottish Sea Farms, which has been a stable and good performer over recent years. Q3, start of Q4 has been more challenging than expected, and it's been a challenging quarter with earlier harvest, some mortalities, which is impacting the results significantly this quarter.

We expect some improvements into Q4, and on the positive side, the new smolt facility is just about to be finalized, and the first smolt is going to sea about these days. Obviously, we have expectations for Norskott to get back to where they normally are. We also expect to see improvements on smolts. This has been a tough quarter. Value-Added Processing, sales and distribution. Henning has highlighted the key points. There's a growth in activity, which is very positive. It's a significant growth in key business units this year compared to last year, which is helping our results significantly. There's a good growth, good development, and still some challenges in some markets. We would say a good quarter, but there's still plenty of room for improvement, which is obviously our aim to utilize in the coming years.

With that, I give the word back to you, Henning.

Henning Beltestad
CEO, Lerøy Seafood Group

Thank you, Sjur. We'll look at first the supply side, and we'll not go in details in all the numbers, but we see the volumes for 2019 will be around 9% growth in volume. For Americas, about 4.3%, and a global growth of 7.2% for 2019. If you look at 2020, we expect 4% growth in Europe, about 4% growth in Americas, and a total of 4%. Very stable in all the regions. The price development last quarter was affected by a much higher volume. We had in the third quarter a price of NOK 49, which is NOK 13 down from second quarter. We see that we have a huge volatility in price level, and especially September and October was very low.

If we look at the volumes per month in Norway, we see the reason for the price decrease in September is that the volumes went up 23%.

Also October up by 8%. If we look at Europe, we see it's up 26% in September and 10% in October. Also U.K. had a large volume in this period. Then if we look at November and December, we see that the volume is going down and there will be zero growth in November and 3% growth in December compared to last year. For Americas, we see stable volumes through the years, large increase in some months, but anyway, stable good volumes around 80,000 tons on a monthly level for the whole year. Worldwide volumes also, we see that it's been a huge growth in especially the third quarter. If we look at 2020, we will have a total growth of 4%. We see we will have a stable growth from month to month.

We see this first half of the year, we will have between 3%-6% growth. If we look at U.K., we see the same. We won't have any growth before end of the year. The total Europe, we also see that we will have some growth in the summertime and then at the end of the year we will have 10%-8% monthly growth. Americas also very stable volumes, as I said. Worldwide, stable growth for each month. If you look at the consumption side, we see that for Q3, 11% growth in the markets. We see E.U.'s holding the share of 11%, the same with U.S., and other market is taking some market share with a 15% growth. If we look at the year-to-date numbers, we see E.U. is up 8%, U.S. 7%, and other market is up 10%.

The total growth is about 7%. We see in the other markets, the huge markets in this category is China and Brazil, which has about 8% growth. We see all the small markets are increasing a lot and there is a huge demand for salmon. This is the really small markets. At the end, we see the demand for seafood remaining strong, and we have a positive market outlook. Harvest guidance for 2019 is about 172,000-175,000 tons. 2020, 183,000-188,000 tons. We expect a contract share of 35% in fourth quarter. We have a significant potential in the whitefish. The quota set for 2020 is 1.8% up for the cod, 25% for the haddock, and 15% for the saithe. That was all we had. Thank you very much.