Mowi ASA (OSL:MOWI)
Norway flag Norway · Delayed Price · Currency is NOK
204.80
+3.20 (1.59%)
Apr 28, 2026, 4:29 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q3 2024

Nov 6, 2024

Ivan Vindheim
CEO, Mowi

Good morning, everyone. Hope you're in the room and online. That was a little taste of the technological revolution taking place in sea-based salmon farming these days. My name is Ivan Vindheim, and I'm the CEO of Mowi, and together with our CFO, Kristian Ellingsen, I will take you through the numbers this morning and, to the best of my and our ability, give a few appropriate comments to them, and after the presentation, our IRO, Kim Dosvig, will routinely host a Q&A session, but those of you who are following the presentation online can submit your questions or comments in advance or as we go along by email. Please refer to our website at mowi.com for the necessary details. Disclaimer: I think we leave for self-study, so with the pleasantries, practicalities, and the disclaimer out of the way, I think we are ready for the highlights of the quarter.

As the first bullet point reads, Mowi posted €1.44 billion in operating revenues in the third quarter, which translated into an operational profit of €173 million, which is in accordance with our trading update of the 15th of October. If you are to sum up the quarter in just a few words, I think it's fair to say it will be remembered for its record-high operating revenues, driven by all-time high quarterly harvest volumes of 161,000 tons, which is in line with our volume guidance and which is another step towards 500,000 tons for the year, which would be a milestone achievement for us, as it would be the first time in Mowi's 60 years' history we crossed the, for us, magic 500,000 tons mark, and which is equivalent to a growth of 5.3% year over year.

For next year, we expect to harvest 520,000 tons, which is the next step towards the next volume milestone of 600,000 tons, which we seek to reach in 2029, and which is equivalent to a growth of 4% year over year if we compare 2025 to 2024. So Mowi's idiosyncratic growth continues, and it's still surpassing that of the wider industry by a large margin. Because, as we can see from the chart, as recently as in 2018, we harvested 375,000 tons, which means we have grown our farming volumes by as much as 145,000 tons over the past few years, or a CAGR of 4.8% versus 2.7% for the industry, and this growth has in practice been organic growth, as we have lost more capacity than what we have bought in that period.

So a big thank you to my 11,600 colleagues in 26 countries for their tireless efforts to make this happen. It's, of course, much, much appreciated. Otherwise, prices in the third quarter were relatively soft, I would say, due to seasonal high industry supply, and our realized blended farming costs, i.e., weighted farming costs for our seven farming countries, were impacted by seasonal issues with lice and gills in Norway, compounded this year by record-high sea temperatures from central Norway northwards, in addition to being hit by phytoplankton in British Columbia. So I think it's fair to say that our realized blended farming cost of EUR 5.72 per kilo in the third quarter was somewhat higher than what we expected and what we were hoping for, although it's down from EUR 5.84 per kilo in the second quarter and EUR 6.05 per kilo in the first quarter.

The cost trend is still down, driven by lower feed prices. Feed accounts for, as you know, more than 40% of cost in box. When it comes to two other divisions, both consumer products and feed enjoyed a strong quarter with record-high results, and for feed parts, also record-high volumes, both capitalizing on record-high farming volumes in the quarter. And finally, the board of directors has decided to distribute a quarterly dividend of EUR 1.50 per share after the third quarter. I think that does it for the highlights of the quarter, so now on to key financial figures. Kristian, we'll, as usual, go in depth on these numbers later this morning, so as not to be too repetitive, I think we'll just touch briefly upon the most important ones now and leave the rest for later.

Turnover profits, I think we skip, as we have just been through them. So if we start with cash, net interest-bearing debt came in at EUR 1.77 billion in the third quarter, which is down from EUR 1.88 billion in the second quarter, due to partly the release of working capital as a result of lower standing biomass cost. And EUR 1.77 billion is also quite close to our long-term debt target of EUR 1.7 billion. Equity ratio was of healthy 48% at the end of the quarter, so I think we can say we have a strong balance sheet. Furthermore, underlying earnings per share was EUR 21, while annualized return on capital employed was 13%.

Finally, in terms of regional margins through the value chain, Farming Europe, which accounts for four out of every five kilos of Atlantic salmon we produce in Mowi, once again stood out as the margin winner due to both cost and price. Nothing new under the sun in that respect. Prices in the quarter. As expected, prices in Europe corrected down in the third quarter from record levels in the first half of the year on seasonal higher industry supply. Prices in America continued to be soft in the wake of the cost of living crisis there. As I said previously, we expect the salmon consumption in America to gradually pick up the pace in parallel with Western economies continuing to recover on lower interest rates and higher real wages.

More generally speaking, in the short term, we believe that seasonal lower industry supply in the run-up to Christmas and into the new year will be a positive price trigger, in addition to the Christmas demand itself. So in other words, we believe in a tighter market balance in the coming months than what we have seen recently, which under normal circumstances should bode well for our price achievement. Speaking of which, our own price achievement in the quarter was 14% above the reference price, which is the standard we like to hold ourselves to internally, positively impacted by a contract share of 21% in the quarter and contract prices above the prevailing spot price, but negatively impacted by lower harvest rates in Norway as a result of already addressed seasonal issues with gills and lice compounded by record-high sea temperatures in parts of Norway.

In our six other farming countries, however, harvest rates were good in the quarter, and supply share was excellent across the board. Then it's time to have a look at the different business entities, and we start, as usual, with Mowi Norway, the locomotive of our business model. And if we take the numbers first, operating profit was EUR 146 million for Mowi Norway in the third quarter, while margin was EUR 1.38 per kilo, and harvest volumes record high 106,000. As you can see from the chart, both profit and margin are down year over year due to lower spot prices and little assistance from a relatively low contract share for Mowi Norway in the quarter. Because harvest volumes are substantially up year over year, from 86,000 tons in the third quarter last year to 106,000 tons this year.

Cost is relatively stable, although it's somewhat higher than what we expected and what we were hoping for due to already addressed seasonal issues with gills and lice compounded by record-high sea temperatures from central Norway northwards, which linger on into October, but November looks better. In terms of string jellyfish, we have just had a few sporadic cases so far, so nothing of significance and no signs of winter sores, but it's still early days. Finally, as the last bullet point reads, the effects hit in the wake of the unprecedented weakening of the NOK we saw last year and the long production and accounting cycle cost Mowi Norway €18 million in the third quarter or €1.17 per kilo versus our Norwegian peers.

Just before that, our operating profit would have been EUR 164 million in the quarter, not EUR 146 million, and our EBIT margin EUR 1.55 per kilo and not EUR 1.38 per kilo. Please take that into account when you do your own benchmark comparisons for Norway for the third quarter. Then the breakdown of the margins for the different regions in Mowi Norway in the quarter. As you can see from this chart, it was a rather mixed bag this time around due to already addressed issues with biology. As not to be too repetitive, I think we leave it at that and move on to the last slide on Mowi Norway, our sales contract portfolio. Contract share was 16% for Mowi Norway in the third quarter and was without spot on our guidance. These contracts contributed, as already said, positively to our earnings.

As for the fourth quarter, we expect the contract share to be about 21% with relatively stable contract prices quarter over quarter, and finally, as regards to next year, since we are negotiating new contracts as we speak, we cannot say much about that today other than to ask for your understanding that we will revert to it in February at our fourth quarter release. In the meantime, we must keep things close to the chest for commercial reasons, then it's time to have a look at our six other farming countries, and we start with Mowi Scotland. Mowi Scotland delivered a good quarter biologically, I would say, much better than last year, and particularly taking into account season, and obviously helped or with help from lower sea temperatures.

This resulted in an operating profit of €13 million for our Scottish operation in the quarter, which is up from €9 million in a comparable quarter last year due to lower cost. Because as we can see from this chart, price achievement is slightly down year over year, and volumes are quite stable at 15,000 tons. As for the fourth quarter, I think we can say things have developed well so far, NOK on wood. Overseas to Chile, Mowi Chile also delivered a set of good biological metrics in the third quarter, I would say, but soft prices in America unfortunately weighed once again on an otherwise good quarter for our Chilean operation. Despite being best on realized cost in Mowi farming in the quarter, margin came therefore to a modest €59 per kilo for Chilean salmon.

Paired with 23,000 tons harvest volumes, this translated into an operational profit of EUR 14 million in the quarter, which is up from EUR 9 million in the third quarter last year. Soft prices were also a recurring theme in Mowi Canada in the quarter, and combined with algae issues and elevated mortality in British Columbia, this resulted in a loss of EUR 4 million in the quarter. On a positive note, however, biology in Canada East was good, and margin was positive EUR 64 per kilo. Biology in Canada West in British Columbia recovered in September and has been good so far in the fourth quarter. Finally, in terms of our strategic review of British Columbia, we have nothing new to report this morning other than that we have started a process and that it's well underway, and we will revert with more information when we have some.

Then the time has come for our two smallest farming entities, Mowi Ireland and Mowi Faroes. And if we take Mowi Ireland first, operating profit was EUR 4.3 million for our Irish operation in the quarter, which is a good result, I would say, given the time of year. Margin was EUR 1.18 per kilo and harvest volumes 3,700 tons. In Mowi Faroes, we saw relatively soft earnings and margin in the quarter for Faroes, with an operating profit of EUR 1.8 million with a margin of EUR 0.61 per kilo on 3,100 tons harvest volumes. Adversely impacted by harvesting from a high-cost site in the quarter, in addition to being 100% exposed to the spot price. Because biological metrics were once again strong for our Faroese operation, with a monthly mortality rate of 0.2% and a biological feed conversion ratio of 1.02, just to mention a few.

It doesn't get much better than that. Then our Atlantic operations operating profit was EUR 1.3 million for Arctic Fish in the third quarter, while its margin was EUR 37 per kilo and harvest volumes 3,400 tons, and both profit and margin bear the mark of 100% spot price exposure in the quarter in our market with soft spot prices. Because biological performance was good in Iceland in the quarter, with, for example, a monthly mortality rate almost on par with Mowi Faroes, showcasing some of the potential in Iceland if we can get the framework conditions right and scale this up. With that, I think we can conclude Mowi farming and move on to consumer products, our downstream business.

Operating profit was record high EUR 44 million for Consumer Products in the third quarter, capitalizing on record high farming volumes and seasonal low raw material prices, in addition to good operational performance more or less across the board, and which is up from EUR 40 million in the third quarter last year. So I think we can say we still see good demand for our products. Then last one out this morning, Mowi Feed. Mowi Feed also capitalized on record high farming volumes in the quarter and to date for that matter, and this translated into an all-time high operational EBITDA of EUR 25 million for our feed operation on all-time high sold volumes of 191,000 tons. And this is up from EUR 20 million in operational EBITDA in the third quarter last year on then 169,000 tons.

And feed performance was evidently strong in the quarter and year to date, demonstrated by all the volume records, which is, of course, extremely important for us as the world's largest salmon farmer by far. So I think we can say things go in the right direction for our feed operation. So with that, Kristian, I think we are ready for the financial figures and fundamentals. Thank you so far.

Kristian Ellingsen
CFO, Mowi

Thank you very much, Ivan. Good morning, everyone. Hope you are all doing well. As usual, we start with the overview of profit and loss, which shows an all-time high revenue of EUR 1.44 billion. This is up 6% on the highest volumes ever harvested. Operational EBIT was EUR 173 million, where the movement from Q3 2023 is explained by lower market prices. But still, this translates into an annualized return on capital employed of 12.6%, i.e., above the target level.

When it comes to the items between operational EBIT and financial EBIT, the difference is mainly explained by the net fair value adjustment of biomass, which was colored by lower salmon prices. With regards to income from associates, there have been industry-wide biological issues in northern Norway, and the operational result for Nova Sea was EUR 1.21 per kilo, which was below Mowi Region North in Q3. Our underlying earnings per share was EUR 21, while cash flow per share was EUR 34, positively influenced by the working capital movement. We then move on to the balance sheet, where total assets are somewhat down from year-end 2023, driven by current items. And Mowi's financial position is strong with a 51% covenant equity ratio. The cash flow was strong in the quarter.

In addition to the contribution from EBITDA, there was a working capital release in Q3 of EUR 99 million, of which approximately EUR 70 million were related to farming and lower biomass cost at stock, driven by lower feed prices. Then there was also some release related to accounts receivable and inventory in Mowi feed.

CapEx was EUR 54 million, adjusted for payment of EUR 58 million related to the Traffic Light auction in June. Net interest-bearing debt was improved during the quarter from EUR 1.88 billion to EUR 1.77 at the end of Q3, somewhat above the long-term target of EUR 1.7 billion. The 2024 full-year cash flow guidance has been adjusted somewhat, with a net positive effect of the changes from the Q2 guiding of EUR 30 million. Working capital buildup this year is estimated to EUR 100 million, CapEx to EUR 290, interest payments EUR 115, and taxes to EUR 85 million.

When it comes to the overview of the financing, this is unchanged from the previous quarter, and consequently, we leave this for self-study. But speaking of financing, we would take this opportunity to remind everyone of the positive effects of being financed in euro versus Norwegian kroner. Euribor is consistently lower than Nibor, and this gap is expected to increase based on interest forward curves. We get the full effect of this with our floating rate-based financing. And for 2025, we expect a saving of around EUR 25 million related to lower rates compared with 2024. Historically, there has been a significant advantage to be financed in euro instead of Norwegian kroner. This removes FX fluctuations. There has also been a saving for Mowi of over EUR 100 million the last 10 years.

And the forward curves indicate that this advantage is very much valid also in the coming years, as we see here with the 1.6 percentage points lower euro rate versus NOK rate. And consequently, this supports a lower cost of capital for companies financed in euro, such as Mowi. Another positive cash effect is related to our most important input factor, namely feed. Last year, we saw a decline in prices for vegetable-based commodities, and this year, the marine ingredients have followed suit. The marine ingredients represent about 20% of total food cost, and these prices are down above 30% from the peak, following a good first fishery season for anchovy in Peru, and also prospects of a good second season, which commenced now in November. The quota for both the first and second season this year have been above the 10-year average, as shown here in the graph.

The yield was also good in the first season this year. Consequently, feed prices have continued to trend down, and the year-to-date effect is around 6%. We then move on to market fundamentals. Global supply increased by 5%, which was in line with the guiding we gave in Q2. This was a new quarterly record high level for global supply, driven by Norway. This was a result of increased small stocking, good production in the quarter, but also early harvesting from rising industry biological challenges, particularly at the end of the quarter. Standing biomass end September in Norway is down 0.5% from last year for the industry. The value of the consumption remained at the peak level. In Europe, consumption in volume terms increased by 8%, with continued positive retail developments and positive market activity effects of promotions. Food service was relatively stable.

Consumption in the U.S. was stable, as opposed to the strong growth we have seen for many years now. Food service consumption offset some retail growth, and the U.S. is behind the recovery curve compared with Europe, but we believe that demand will improve in due course. In Asia, there was good growth in all markets, 5% in total, and the record high seasonal supply took its toll on prices in the quarter, but we expect much tighter market balance in the coming months on lower supply, and when we analyze biomass data, the biomass number of individuals, current trends in the various countries, we estimate industry supply growth for 2025 of modest 2%, with a risk on the downside. The split is then shown here between the various countries.

This means that the 2% is consistent also with what we believe then for the coming years when it comes to supply growth. We are in a structural undersupply scenario, where supply is definitely down from the previous decade, as we see it. When it comes to around volumes, we maintain the guidance of 500,000 tons in 2024, and for 2025, we guide on 520,000 tons, supported by record high biomass in sea of 329,000 tons live weight. This 520,000 tons is the next step to our next milestone of 600,000 tons, expected volume in 2029, as we see here on the graph, with reference to the Capital Markets Day and information we provided back in September. This is then a continuation of our good growth trajectory the last years, where we have gone from lagging behind on volume growth to being ahead on volumes.

This, in the end, is the most important volume value earnings driver in the business. We would also like to take this opportunity to remind everyone of our good track record when it comes to actually delivering on our volume guidance. We have a plus 0.2% positive deviation when it comes to our guidance and what we actually deliver on. This is done over the last five years versus minus 7.9% for our listed peers. This provides confidence, as we see it. It is over to Ivan for some comments on the outlook.

Ivan Vindheim
CEO, Mowi

Thank you, Kristian. Much appreciated. It is time to conclude with some closing remarks before we wrap it all up with our Q&A session hosted by our IRO, Kim Dosvig. As I said earlier this morning, the third quarter was another record-breaking quarter for Mowi in terms of top line and growth.

By extension, we have maintained our volume guidance to 500,000 tons for this year, which would be a milestone achievement for us, as it would be the first time in Mowi's 60 years' history we crossed the, for us, magic 500,000 tons mark, and which is equivalent to a growth of 5.3% year over year. For next year, we expect to harvest 520,000 tons, which is the first step towards next volume milestone of 600,000 tons, which we seek to reach in 2029, and which is equivalent to a growth of 4% year over year if we compare 2025 to 2024. Mowi's idiosyncratic growth continues, and it's still surpassing that of the wider industry by a large margin.

Because as recently as in 2018, we harvested only 375,000 tons in Mowi, which means you have grown our farming volumes by as much as 145,000 tons over the past few years, with a CAGR of 4.8% versus 2.7% for the industry. And this growth has in practice been organic growth. Otherwise, as we also said earlier this morning, we expect a tighter market balance in the coming months than what we have seen recently, which under normal circumstances should bode well for our price achievement. And further on that note, in all humility, we believe that Kontali is overshooting again with the industry supply growth estimate of 5% for next year. And as Kristian just showed us, our peers have a history of promising much more volumes than they ultimately deliver.

We, for our parts, believe that industry supply growth next year once again will be at the low end, at a modest 2%. If anything, we believe the risk is on the downside. Finally, as the last bullet point reads, we expect a realized blended farming cost in the fourth quarter on par with or lower than that of the third quarter, depending on biological cost, because the cost trend is down, driven by lower feed prices. This will, sooner or later, manifest itself further in the P&L cost. With that, Kristian and Kim, I think we are ready for the Q&A session. If Kristian can please join me on the stage and Kim can run or administer the mic.

Christian Nordby
Analyst, Arctic Securities

Christian Nordby , Arctic Securities.

It's obviously a lot of uncertainty regarding string jellyfish and winter sores, but what are your expectations regarding downgrades or superior share for the coming winter?

Ivan Vindheim
CEO, Mowi

That's a really good question, and I think the 100% honest answer is that no one knows. Nothing that has happened so far will impact that question. That's my mere assertion. So we have had a few cases so far, as we said during the presentation, but nothing of significance and also limited to Region Mid, so central Norway. But let's see this week, those cases have been in retreat, but what next week brings or the week after, no one knows.

Christian Nordby
Analyst, Arctic Securities

And like you say, there's been quite a lot of sea lice treatments in northern Norway. How do you think that will impact the sore situation and later downgrades in the coming winter?

Ivan Vindheim
CEO, Mowi

It's obviously not positive, but having said that, we also have taken several other measures. So the net effect of this, I still hope, will be much better than last year. But of course, the more you handle the fish, the more biological issues you get. That's the name of the game in biological production.

Christian Nordby
Analyst, Arctic Securities

Thank you.

Martin Kaland
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Martin Kaland, ABG Sundal Collier. You mentioned that feed prices have come down some 6% from the year to date, and that might also be from the peak levels. But what is the potential drop based on the recent feed prices or ingredient prices, in your view?

Kristian Ellingsen
CFO, Mowi

It's a tough one. We never guide on future costs. So we take the next quarter, and at the end of the day, it depends on the biological cost, right? So it doesn't help if your input factors drop when your biological issues increase.

But hopefully, the third quarter was an exception to the rule. Last year was a good year for us in Mowi, Norway, and also the year before that, and this year has been a troublesome year, if we are completely honest with each other. But normally, things fluctuate also in biology. So let's hope next year is getting much better and that we also can have 100% of these tailwinds from lower input factors, because I think we have had our share of setbacks in recent months in Norway.

Ivan Vindheim
CEO, Mowi

Okay, then a question from the web from Marius Skjerkemar, Sparebank 1. If you can comment on the growth outlook in Norway. We guide on 3.3% for growth in Mowi Norway versus industry growth of only 1%-2%. If you can comment on the reasoning why Mowi is growing more than the industry.

Well, as Kristian just showed us here, we have grown more than the industry for many years, and that's our plan to continue with. So I think it is as easy as that and as difficult as that. It's not easy to deliver growth in this industry. You need investments, you need a lot of focus, and you need an organization that is very supportive and ship-shape. But if you look at our numbers now, we have grown our business now since volume-wise since 2017, actually. And our clear goal is to continue with this growth trajectory. And i.e., then we also will outgrow the rest of the industry and the other listed peers.

Alexander Aukner
Analyst, DNB Markets

Hi, Alex ander Aukner from DNB Markets. So just a question regarding dividends and your net interest-bearing debt targets. Typically, or historically, it's been linked to supply growth, net interest-bearing debt per kilo produced.

You've now announced new targets, significant growth. The feed division, the consumer products division, is now generating healthy profits. What should we expect in terms of the net interest-bearing debt target going forward? Is that up for revision?

Ivan Vindheim
CEO, Mowi

Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. If we can continue to grow this business and also continue to grow cash flow, then we can also handle more debt and also increase our dividend capacity. So absolutely, everything is connected to everything else here. Thank you. Welcome.

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