Mowi ASA (OSL:MOWI)
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Apr 28, 2026, 4:29 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Feb 12, 2020

Speaker 1

Yes, I think the time is there. So we start. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the presentation of Mubi's 4th quarter results. My name is Ivan Minderm, new CEO since last time. And with me today to present the financial figures, I have our new CFO, Mr.

Christian Ellingsen. Yes, first highlights. Operational EBIT of €166,000,000 in the quarter in line with the trading up plate of the 16th January. Q4 and full year volumes record high in all business areas. So it's very nice to start in the new role with presenting and reporting these numbers.

If you start with farming, 436,000 tonnes for the year, As already said, all time high. I think we must go back to 2015 to see next time we beat a record. You know the environment in farming, so it's challenging these days. So in that context, it's also very encouraging. I would also like to take opportunity to give all our farmers out there praise for this.

It's highly appreciated. FEED, a very good year for FEED Norway, 353,000 tonnes, also record high. If you remember back in the days, the first target for the factory was 240,000 tonnes. So we have come a long way since then. We have also started to produce from Scotland.

We are not finished with the commissioning phase, but we are closing in 52,000 tonnes in the quarter. We are targeting 1 150,000 tonnes for 2020. Full capacity is 240,000 tonnes. With the both factories up and running, we are more or less self sufficient on feed in Europe in Mowi. Consumer products also all time high volumes in the Q4 and for the year, close to 200,000 tonnes of product weight, of which 80% roughly is salmon.

As you have already noticed, the spot prices, they improved significantly during the quarter from a low level led or driven by the high supply in the Q3, but we closed the year in Europe above €8 and Americas followed suit. So a very impressive price development during the quarter. I think we have never seen such a steep increase in the price trajectory in the past. We completed the 'nineteen cost savings program with annual savings of €41,000,000 the target was €30,000,000 so also very satisfactory, very good job done by our colleagues all across our business areas. This is not only farming, it's also downstream and upstream, so I.

E. Feed and consumer products. On that note, we have initiated our new global cost saving program of €25,000,000 You know the underlying cost pressure in this industry. So these measures are of utmost importance that we do so that we mitigate the increased requirements and the challenges we are facing. We issued our first and also the industry's first green bond in the quarter, euros 200,000,000 5 year tenure and a coupon of the euro plus 160 bps or 1.6 percent.

It's really impressive, I must say. As the former CFO, I guess this is something that I cannot take to heart, but for those who have taken over, my goodness, this is really impressive. So I commend to those who have been involved, also the banks that helped us with this. So this is, of course, very encouraging to see that the market is so willing to invest what we do that they really believe in our history sorry, not only our history, but also our story and the color of it. It's very much green.

The Board declared a dividend of NOK 2.60 per share for the quarter, so in line with the previous quarters on a solid balance sheet and but also good future prospects. So in terms of the key financials, I believe most of this to Christian. So we have already been through the turn of a record high. Operating EBIT, we have touched based upon. He will go through the balance sheet.

So I just want to say that in terms of margins, a big spread this time around, we will revisit later on in the presentation. But overall, I think the Q4 was a reasonable good quarter for Moove, taking into account the environmental challenges we have had in some of our farming segments. Prices, I already said that the development in prices in the 4th quarter is unprecedented. In Europe, we started below €4, I think, and we closed above €8 The good prices continued into January until the coronavirus started to take its toll, but we are still at a good level. So the underlying demand here is really, really good.

And when the supply came down to more modest levels, 3%, 4% in the quarter, then the prices really went through the ceiling. Price achievements, overall, a good price achievement for Mubi in the quarter, 102% in Norway, which is our biggest farming area. Scotland 122%, also very good. Canada, a little bit lower than 100%, driven by 1st and foremost, the mass mortality we had on new farmland in the Q3. Chile also a good price achievement 100% of or 100% of the spot price, although some of this is contracts.

With regard to superior share, good superior share, I would say, in all farming segments apart from Canada, also related to the mass mortality we had in the Q3 and the aftermath from that incident. Operation EBIT compared to the Q4 of last year, so a waterfall feed, as said, a very good quarter, additional €8,000,000 in profit year over year. Farming down €45,000,000 mainly explained by lower prices. Remember that we started the quarter at very low levels before we reached very high levels at the end. So year over year price wise, the price was down, although the price trajectory or pattern of development was very, very different.

Last year, the prices didn't go towards the end of the year. It didn't go before close to Easter this year. Markets, plus €9,000,000 Consumer Products heavily impacted by the competition situation in Europe. So we are also comparing it to the Q4 'eighteen, which was the best quarter ever so far. So the Q4 'eighteen was very, very good.

So you could also say that the Q4 this year was more in line with the rest of the year. So we are subject to fierce competition in consumer products in Europe. There is overcapacity. So it's really, really hard to make high margin in that market. But we make money and on invested capital, it's still okay.

It's not great. And this is also very important tool for us in order to develop the markets and the demand. It's not like the salmon cell itself, although you sometimes believe that when you see the prices we have seen recently. Overall sorry, all in all, €166,000,000 in operational EBIT for the quarter. Then the biggest business area for us Norway, Farming Norway, Overall, I would say a very good results in the quarter, notwithstanding lower price achievement.

Volumes are higher year over year and costs are stable. So for Norway in general, I think 'nineteen was reasonably good, although the segments are quite different from state of the art to somewhat more challenging. In the Q1, we will harvest lower volumes. We always do. So this time, we are down by close to 30%.

That will take its toll on cost, rough, a conscious scale. We're also reducing the relative share from regional North, which also will impact overall Norwegian cost. Remember that regional North is our best margin performer, I guess, one of the best margin performers in the world right now. That takes us to the margin spread, €2.28 in Region South this quarter. Last quarter, we were very low on low volumes, €0.12, so €0.12 so it's significantly increased.

Point €1.12 so EUR0.12 So it's significantly increased, but on high volumes, I also think we gave you a heads up that this would change into the Q4. Overall, the biology in South is more challenging than what you see in the north. That goes without saying. But taking into consideration the bulge we have in the south, I think we do a reasonable well. But compared to the north, it's really, really hard.

This time we made €2.6 in the quarter, which is really impressive. So good production in North, good costs and also a good prospect, although the harvest volumes will go down in the Q1. Then we have mid, which stands out this time around, a little special because region Mid harvested 60% of its volumes in October when the price was at its lowest. So if you adjust for that, mid is quite similar to south with regard to costs. So these bars, this time around, they fool us a little bit.

So again, bear that in mind. Then over to contracts, the contract level for Norway is quite stable. We contract 80,000, 90,000 tonnes per year. We will continue to do that in 2020 and for the first half we have already contracted this. And the lion's share was contracted during the autumn when the price is below.

So the context prices are obviously impacted by the price environment back then. Then Scotland. Scotland had a fantastic first half year. Then I think it's right to say that second half has been a little bit more challenging. However, we closed the year with record high volumes for Scotland, which is very satisfactory.

I remember back in the day, Scotland was 40,000 tons operation and now it looks like we have made it to a plus 60,000 tonnes to operation, if you take into account the guidance for 2020. So a good development of Scotland over time, but Scotland also has its share of environmental challenges these days. So it's not easy, but it shows that you can also grow the farming business in Scotland with the right measures and not to mention with the right people. People is, in the end of the day, the most important input factor we have. Licenses and the rest of the input factors you can actually buy, but good people, they are not easy to find.

So you are so you have to train them yourself and it takes a lot of time. Costs, relatively stable year over year in Q4. That being said, compared to the first half, they are up. Canada is another important business area for us. In general, it's much tougher to farm or grow the Atlantic salmon in Canada.

So we have setbacks from time to time. 'nineteen, I think, stands out as one of the years. But over time, it makes sense to do farming of Atlantic salmon in Canada. In the Q4, unfortunately, we lost money in the aftermath of the mass mortality incident on Newfoundland in the 3rd quarter, but also driven by extended periods of low oxygen and plankton in British Columbia or Canada West in the second half. Low oxygen is a general problem in British Columbia, Canada.

But this year, it has been very low sorry, very high temperatures, seawater temperatures in Europe, but also in Canada. That doesn't hurt when it comes to oxygen level. Right. Then Chile, biology in Chile is under control. Chile's levels are down.

And I would also say that in general, the biology is satisfactory. We have a good cost in Chile. So but compared to the Norwegian margins in the 4th quarter, the margins in Chile are lower than what they usually are. And the Q4, although the prices in Chile also increased, it took a longer time. They lagged somewhat compared to the price development we saw in Europe, but also in Canada.

So the price achievement, the absolute price achievement for Moviechilla was a little bit low. But in general, prices in for the Chilean fish has been more aligned with the rest of the salmon world. We expect costs to increase somewhat in the Q1 because we are harvesting from some higher cost performing sites. But again, in general, biology is satisfactory in Chile right now. We were down there and visited them just before Christmas and we are happy with the development right now.

Ireland and the Faroes, 2 small entities, but still every single volume or kilogram counts in this industry. Ireland, impressive EUR3.34 in margin. This is organic salmon, as you know. So a fantastic market, a fantastic product and also a fantastic margin. So again, really, really impressive.

In the Ferros, we have 3 sites. This is the mid site, so somewhat lower margin than Norway, but okay. Year over year, we have lower volumes. So it's obviously less that comes to scale and higher cost because of that. Going into the first half year now, we start to harvest from our best farming site over there, Oindarfjordur.

So we expect somewhat better cost in the ferros for the first half compared to the Q4. But again, these are small entities. So overall for Movi, they are not that important, although every kilogram counts. Consumed products, we have already touched based upon the competition situation. We are subject to fierce competition in Europe.

There is overcapacity according to ourselves at least. But we continue to grow the business. We make money. We also have an okay return on investing capital, not great, but still okay. This is also a very important tool for us in order to develop markets, in order to develop new products And the hope is also that the branding strategy we have initiated will give us some more protection from competition at least in the longer term, because in current environment in Europe, there are no places to hide.

So there are too many production facilities in this segment. And yes, so and the entry barriers, they are close to 0. It doesn't take much CapEx to start to process the summer. Results in the Consumer Products in the Q1 will, of course, be impacted by this. But the end number, we don't know yet.

FEED, a great quarter for FEED, a great year for FEED, record high volumes as already said. We are approaching the end of the commissioning phase in Scotland, Calatriaen. We expect to further grow this into 2019, 150,000 tonnes are targeted for Scotland. We also hope to increase our production in Emyong somewhat more. So the development here is satisfactory.

We are also happy with the quality of the feed. Our test shows that the feed quality compared to peers are at the highest level. So overall, to sum it all up for 'nineteen, a good year, good development and it looks good for 2020. Then Christian, the floor is all yours

Speaker 2

and you can walk us through the financial figures. Thank you, Fred, Johan. So good morning. It's good to see you, good to be here presenting the financial results for the Q4. And we start as usual by looking at the overview of profit and loss, which shows the top line, which has all time high turnover for both the quarter and a full year.

Operational revenue was EUR 1,100,000,000 in Q4 on strong volumes. And if we compare with the Q4 of 2018, we see that there is a 4% growth. This is somewhat lower than the potential increase in harvest volumes of 10% and the explanation is then lower realized prices in the quarter. As Ivan also explained, prices in the beginning of the quarter were impacted by excess supply in the 3rd quarter. But we had a very good increase during the quarter and prices ended at very healthy levels.

So then we can move on to operational EBIT of EUR 166,000,000 in the 4th quarter. That's somewhat down from the comparable quarter mainly due to lower prices. But nevertheless, it converts into a return on capital employed of solid 19%. And if you look at the full year operational EBIT, EUR 721,000,000 that's the 3rd best ever for MOWE. So a good year for the company.

Then we can look at the items between operational EBIT and financial EBIT. As usual, we have a large item regarding the fair value adjustment of biomass, EUR 52,000,000 this time. That's mainly related to higher prices at the end of the quarter. Then we have income from associated companies, €19,000,000 in Q4. That's mainly related to our associated company NovaSea in Northern Norway.

So this is our share of total profit and loss for NovaSea. And if you look at the underlying profit then that converts into EUR2.1 per kilo, which is a good performance, although lower than Mowi region north. Full year volumes in NovaSea, a record high, so very positive from NovaSea. Net financial items of €13,000,000 as usual this line item consists of different items including interest, currency, derivatives. Then we have underlying earnings per share of 0.22 euros net cash flow per share of 0 point 0 $5 this time.

That's impacted by seasonal tie up of working capital in the 4th quarter, but higher than comparable quarter. Harvest volumes of 116,000 tonnes, that's more or less the same as we had in the Q3 and these two quarters were the best ever for Mohe with regards to harvest volumes. So we had good volumes in farming, but we also had record high volumes in feed and in consumer products. This is of course a proof of the very good work done by our employees throughout the world to grow this company and also a proof of the very good underlying demand for our sustainable and healthy products. Then we can move on to the financial position.

We see here that balances were more or less stable compared with the 3rd quarter. Some working capital movements with reference to what I said about the tie up. Total balance sheet, EUR 5,800,000,000 and MoE's financial position is very healthy with a covenant equity ratio of 53%. If we move on to the cash flow, you see here that we started a period of net interest bearing debt of €1,200,000,000 Cash flow from operations that was impacted by the seasonal tie up of working capital in the quarter, that's mainly in consumer products and tie up in accounts receivable. For the year, working capital tie up of €104,000,000 as we see here, somewhat lower than the guidance of €115,000,000 but not far from it.

Taxes paid in the quarter, the main part of the taxes are paid earlier in the year, so around €10,000,000 in the quarter. The full year figure of €156,000,000 is more or less in line with the guiding of €160,000,000 Other adjustments of €25,000,000 in the quarter, that's mainly related to insurance payments regarding our plant in Kritsen. Net CapEx, if you look at the full year figure and focus on that, euros 286,000,000 that's more or less spot on compared with the guiding of €290,000,000 Other investments and dividends received in the quarter of EUR 14,000,000 that's related mainly to dividends from NovaSeen. And then if we look at the financial items here, net interest and financial items paid of EUR 16,000,000 in the quarter and EUR 57,000,000 for the year, that's also more or less in line with guiding of EUR 55,000,000. And we closed the year of net interest bearing debt of EUR 1,300,000,000, so still below the long term target of EUR1.4 billion.

Then we can focus on the year that we have now started 2020 and look at what we expect now for the full year with regards to the cash flow. We guide here for a working capital tie up of EUR 90,000,000 to grow this business to support further organic growth. We have a capital expenditure of around EUR 265,000,000 and we have written some comments here about the expansion side, expansion projects. We continue to invest in freshwater sites, small facilities in order to build, in order to grow larger smalt, high quality smalt And we have several ongoing projects. We have Sandlera, region north, Hijuco, region mid.

We have Vogelfossen region South in Norway, we have Stivendal in Canada East. So these are still important parts of our investment program in farming. And then we have seawater expansions around EUR 20,000,000, so new sites, investments in farming to support the growth that we are aiming for. In consumer products, the largest investment there is the Quitsen factory, state of the art new factory that we are building in France, around EUR50 1,000,000 in 2020. And you will then find that this add up to more or less EUR 100,000,000, so the rest around EUR 165,000,000 more or less maintenance CapEx.

So that is in line with the depreciation level you will find. Interest payments of €40,000,000 so somewhat lower than this year and taxes paid 145,000,000 for 2020. So this slide gives an overview of our very solid financing and the new item here is of course the green bond which Ivan also talked about. So in January this year, we issued an unsecured 5 year green bond of EUR 200,000,000. So this was the first green bond in the industry.

The bond was significantly oversubscribed. We met with a lot of investors in January with great interest both from regular bond investors and also dedicated ESG investors. So accordingly the interest rate is very favorable, Eurebor plus 1.6%. And in our view, the green bond is a very good fit for Mohe as a green company producing sustainable and healthy products and the terms are good, then this is a win win of course. We have a strong cost focus also going forward.

In 2019, we had a target of €30,000,000 in annualized savings in all the business areas and the achievement was, as Ivan also pointed out, €41,000,000 which we are of course satisfied with, with the challenging biological environment and also other factors contributing to the cost pressure like feed prices, like regulations, like compliance costs. It is of course important that we continue to focus on costs. We believe that these cost programs are very important for us. So we have initiated also a program for 2020 of EUR 25,000,000 in targeted annualized savings. And these cost initiatives, they are concrete actions in each business area, in each business unit regarding specific costs, regarding agreements, regarding procurement improvements.

So this is an important focus also going forward. And we could also point out when you look at the development here that if you adjust for regional mix then costs are actually stable. That's also the case if you adjust for the feed prices and the mortality costs we saw in 'nineteen. We had several incidents as you know in 'nineteen. Okay.

So then we can move on to the fundamentals. We started the supply side. Supply growth in the Q4 was modest, 3.5% as we see here on total and that was of course significantly lower than the 13.2% we saw in the 3rd quarter. So the excess supply we saw in the 3rd quarter that was more than the market could absorb without prices being impacted. So the 1st part of the 4th quarter was very much influenced by this.

But then prices increased during the quarter as we have already commented. This Q4 growth was in line with the overall expectations. If you look to the specific regions, Norway was a little bit more than expected due to a higher number of fish being harvested, but the feed consumption declined and year end biomass for the industry was flat compared with 2018. In Scotland, 4% increase more than expected due to negative biological conditions in the beginning of the quarter. And in Chile, the 3% decrease was below expectations as a consequence of the logistical challenges we saw in Chile in October November due to the social unrest.

And this overview shows the reference price development with the prices starting low, but the increase during the quarter was very good, unprecedented increase in prices in the 4th quarter. And this development also meant the timing of sales had an impact in this quarter on realized prices. If you look at the beginning of 2020, it has also been very good with regards to prices. We have seen the 2nd best prices in January ever in Europe and in Chile, Canada also very good level, all time high. So of course the case is that recently prices have been cleaned somewhat due to the coronavirus as you have all read about and heard about.

And it's important to bear in mind that the Chinese consumption of salmon that takes place mainly in the food service segment. So that means restaurants, hotels and with activity slowing down, that also means that demand is reduced. And that China has its share of the total market. So demand there is down due to this corona outbreak. However, prices are still good and despite short term issues, we believe that the supply demand outlook is tight and we see continued good demand and we see also as I said reduced industry supply growth for 2020.

And some further comments on demand. We see the total salmon consumption was in line with the supply. That was also the case for Europe. We saw a very good retail demand in the quarter in Europe, very strong retail demand in the core markets including Germany, UK, France, Southern Europe. In the U.

S, total consumption increased by as much as 11% as we see here. Both foodservice and retail developed very favorably. And if we look at our own growth rates in consumer products in the US, we see even higher figures. So there is a great demand for salmon in this market. We see great demand for our pre packed crush products in the US with increased volumes in the store that we are already in and our products coming into new stores as well.

So these figures are very encouraging and we also have to remember that there is a great potential also going forward in this market. So with our value added plants in Main, in Miami, in Dallas and Vancouver, we are very well positioned here going forward. Yeah, we see a good growth also in Brazil, 11% and we see China, Hong Kong as much as 15% in the quarter on improved availability of the larger sizes. So when the right sizes are available, the Chinese are definitely in the market for salmon. Also in this market, the potential is great and we believe that we are well positioned here with our new factory in Shanghai.

So while development in China and Hong Kong was great, The rest of Asia was impacted by reduced availability of frozen volumes from Chile in the quarter as it's also commented here on the slide. This was due to the logistical challenges in the quarter in Chile. China, as I said, that's primarily a fresh foodservice market. So they did not see the same impact. But still fresh exports to several of these regions, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam showed positive growth in the quarter.

So the underlying demand picture for Asia is better than what these figures could give the impression of if just take a brief look at this. But if you go into the fundamentals there, you see that the underlying picture is still very favorable. And of course, there is short term friction now with regards to the coronavirus, especially in China, but also in other markets. So that is, of course, also important to comment when we talk about good demand in China. Yeah, and then we can look at the growth expectations for the industry in 2020.

We expect modest global growth. We see here the guiding 2% to 5% industry growth. This is in line with the market consensus. In Norway, we expect industry volumes to develop in the range of 2% to 5%, in the UK minus 2% to 3%, in Chile 2% to 7% and North America, minus 9% to minus 4%. So all in all, expectations of modest growth in 2020.

Yeah, the figures are here for you to study further. And then we can look at our own volume guidance. So we have a volume guidance for 2020, which is unchanged from the Q3. This figure here would give 14,000 tons extra volumes compared with 'nineteen. That's mainly related to improved utilization of our capacity in Norway.

This is one of our key priorities to work with this. We expect that the effects of the traffic light system in Norway for Norway for 2020, those effects will be limited. In Canada, volumes are expected to be reduced with if you compare with 'nineteen due to the challenges we saw in 'nineteen. We believe that the biomass in sea supports this volume guiding. If you look at the number of individuals in sea at the end of the quarter, that number is stable, but the composition is different.

So we have more individuals in sea in Norway, 7,000,000 more individuals in Norway and we have less in Canada. So due to biological performance in the different regions, we believe that this change of composition is favorable with regards to harvestable volumes for 2020. Then Ivan, I will give the word back to you to comment on the outlook.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Christian, and thank you for a thorough walk through of the financial figures and the fundamentals. So then it's just to sum up, go through the outlook and the way forward. So as Christian just said here, notwithstanding short term issues with the coronavirus, we see sector fundamentals as strong. There are good demand in all key markets and the supply outlook is moderate. Fish pull forward price is €6,000,000 which you are all aware of.

We have also maintained our harvest volume guidance for 2020, backed on the back on the number of individuals in sea as of today. As Christian just thoroughly explained, the mix here is quite different compared to last year. We have more individuals in Norway and less in Canada, the latter because of the mass mortality we had on Newfoundland last sorry, not last year, but last quarter. Going forward, as you have read from the press release, we have changed the organization of farming in order to increase our focus. So we are heading towards 3 COOs instead of 1 as we have had so far, Because the competence is not enough, you also need the time to follow-up this.

And good husbandry is about focus. It's about being hands on. The devil is in the details, but in this context, the solution is in the details. So heading towards, as I said, that's because we haven't hired the permanent CEO of farming Norway. That individual we are looking for.

So we have just started a recruitment process. Further, we are establishing something we have decided to call the movie Global Processing Excellence Team, a really nice name. In Norwegian, what we do is that we gather our best men and women of engineers in one team so that we can coordinate and hopefully learn from each other. We have 38 factories in movie altogether, including primary processing, so not only secondary processing, all across the world. I think they are spread on 19 countries.

So in order to coordinate this, in order to use best practice, that's a challenge in itself. But in addition, we also see that the trend on automation, digitalization give us some untapped potentials here. The way we process salmon today is very, very labor intensive. The lion's share of our 15,000 employees, they are in Downstreams. So through replacing our processes with new technology, existing machines, new machines, we can improve the productivity substantially we think in the longer term.

But in order to do so, you have to address it. So the idea is that this team will help us with it. In addition, you also have the working processes. It's not only about the machines, but also the way you do this. So how smart can you put up a processing line, etcetera.

So we're taking the best people out, putting them into a team, so that they can learn from the best ones within the company, but also from other industries, we think will help us going forward. We are just going through the fierce competition we are facing in consumer products in Europe. So this is a low margin industry. So and until the branded strategy has started to really work, the solution is through improved productivity. In order to produce at lower cost than our competitors, we have to establish a higher productivity, because we have to pay more or less the same price for the labor, which is the lion's share of the costs apart from, of course, the fish raw material.

Right. Then the feed plant, as said, we are approaching the end of the commissioning phase. We are targeting 150,000 tonnes this year, which will take us close to self sufficiency in Europe on feed. That has been the goal and the target for a long time since actually we started back in 2013. So it's very encouraging to see that in 2020 we are there.

So long term strategies, they work, but it just take a little bit time. So but for those who are patient, things change, not from day to day, but over time. We have already discussed brand and branding, how important we think this will be in the future in order to build entry barriers, in order to increase our margins, but also in order to improve the food experience for our customers, because in the end of the day, that's I guess is the most important thing. The rest will actually follow suit. We are we started with Poland last year.

That was a pilot. Now we start this for real through addressing France, maybe the most sophisticated salmon market in Europe, now at the end of the Q1 and the USA through our factories in Americas or USA. Quarter dividend, 2.60 for the Q1, in line with previous quarter. On the back of a solid balance sheet, very good financing, but also a tight supply and demand outlook. With this, we open up for Q and A.

Please say your name and ask your question as loud and clear as you can. And if we forget something, please let us know. It's Ed Orpig, Kepler Cheuvreux.

Speaker 3

How should we think about the costs in Scotland and Canada, not necessarily for the next quarter, but more for the longer term development of costs here? Are they supposed to revert back to lower levels? I assume Canada might not be as quickly because of the lower volumes, but in general speaking.

Speaker 1

The answer is yes over time. But you know this industry very well, Christian. And so it takes some time in this industry. You cannot just change it overnight because we have this is biology individuals. And if you start with Canada, the biomass this year is low.

So the parts which is named it comes to scale is lacking in big part of the value chain there. So I think we must be a little bit patient there. If we take I think for Canar, we must think of 2020 as the recovery year. That being said, we are still aiming at growing East and also get back to peak levels we have seen in the West. So nothing has changed.

But of course, what happened in the Q3 was a setback. We must admit that. And it takes some time because before we have recovered. So we lost a large share of the fish we had in the East. And you know this, without fish, there's not much left really.

Speaker 3

And on that note, the biomass year over year is down 5%. I assume that you have more individuals at lower weight because you have a skewed back end harvest profile. Is that correct?

Speaker 1

That's correct. And also the part that Christian emphasized that the number of individuals is substantially up in Norway, 7,000,000 as of year end And the other way around in Canada, mainly due to Canada East. So yes, you're right, we are a little bit backhanded this year, but not that much. If you look at our historical figures, we are always a little lighter in the first half of the year compared to the second half. And I think already in the Q2, it will be quite similar to last year, at least on an overall basis.

So this is particularly the Q1 that stands out.

Speaker 4

Yes. Two questions. 1 on the volume guidance. You are guiding or your volume guidance compared with what you state for the whole industry implies that you will cover 60% of the growth in Norway alone. And my question is the risk for the volume guidance be a little bit excessive or alternatively underestimating the total volume growth from Norway?

Comment on that. And the second one goes more on the market. The current how do you experience the current market situation given what you also mentioned on the coronavirus and impact mainly in Asia, but also indirect in other markets?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you for two good questions. To start with the volume guidance, so you say we account for approximately 60% of the growth in the Norwegian or for the Norwegian industry this year. So to start with ourselves, we like to talk about ourselves, not the others. We have the individuals in sea.

So and if you are looking at the number of licenses we have, you would conclude that our utilization to date has not been satisfactory. So we are just trying to get to a satisfactory utilization level in Norway. So we have stocked more fish aligned with the biology we have these days. So again, we have the fish. So for our numbers, we are as sure as we can be at this part of the year.

So as long as the fish is surviving, of course, some mortality we will have, then we are fine. And also remember that the baseline here was last year and last year was not a great year for moving over. We had a lot of small incidents in all business areas, also including region North. For the rest of the industry, we still believe in a tight supply situation in or from or a small growth from Norway last year, because in terms of the in the end it's about how good can you utilize your licenses. And it's hard to see that some of our competitors can actually squeeze so much more out of their current capacity.

And the traffic light system will not be that effective this year. So yes, we do that. And we think that we will gain market share, if you want to use that word, in 2020. We have the individuals and that's the bedrock of this. The rest, I think we have to wait and see.

But we are firm in our belief. We are. Then on the coronavirus, well, as you know, we are not an expert in this. So we know what you know about this coronavirus and that's what you can read about it on the Internet. With regard to China, China is for all practical intensive purposes closed.

So there is no demand there. People do not go out and eat. And as Christian said, 95% of the salmon consumption in China is through restaurants and the likes. So 120,000 tonnes for that market is out. So taking into account the current prices, they are impressive, at least in my mind.

So but it's a big question is how will this develop going forward. And I guess it's anyone's guess. I heard on news yesterday that this is supposed to level off in April. I think this was one of the big global organizations that have a responsibility in this, not for the virus, but to solve it. But we don't know.

We assume this is a short term issue. We have been there before with SARS, with other viruses and it looks like the Chinese are quite good at fixing this. They have a little bit more discipline than what we are used to. So we think this will blow over, but we don't know. But right now, there is no trade with China of some, although you can find the air freight for the salmon, it doesn't help because you don't have the clients.

And the price is also very high because of the cost of the air price. For the rest of the market, we think it works quite well. That being said, salmon is a global product. I think we sell salmon to 150, 160 countries all over the world. And there are according to United Nations, 200 countries.

So salmon is one of the most global products there is. I guess you have oil and a few other ones, Coca Cola that's not paid, but not many. So there are always some trade frictions in this. It has been like that as long as I've been in the industry. So now it's coronavirus and then we have had Russia, then we have had EU, the U.

S. And then we were excluded from China because of some diplomatic issues. So I think this is a part of the game. In a global world, there are always something. So this is something we just have to us through really.

Speaker 5

Okay. The next question from the web, it's from Sean Dang. She is asking she's representing Berenberg. She's asking any comments on the tax situation in Norway? Some papers some paper proposed 40% resource rental tax.

Can you please give us some background on this, the development and your thoughts on this?

Speaker 1

Yes. So from coronavirus to resource tax, another topic we are not an expert in. So there's a hearing around now. The deadline was at the beginning of this month. So now it's up to the politicians really how they want to take this forward.

We are, as you know, and as you understand, strongly against this. So we think a resource tax on Norwegian salmon farming would be devastating for the Norwegian salmon industry. So if we the target from the government is to grow this 5 times by close of play 2,050. And if that's still the idea to create jobs and keep the light running on our coastline, then we cannot introduce this. That will be an effective show stopper.

So 62% and you do not have the money to invest. And despite some professors, salmon farming is not like oil or energy. Salmon farming, you can actually move. You have RAS technology. So this you can do on land in other countries.

So you don't need the coastline in Norway. The only reason why Norway has half of the total production in the world is that we are cost competitive. If you put on 62% resource tax, we are the highest cost performance there is. And then it goes without saying that that will ruin our position, but also our future. So instead, I think we need a good system.

We also have to pay our share of the tax. And to secure that, we can continue to grow this, because if this industry over time goes out of the country, then we have no taxes really, although the tax rate is high. So but if you grow this 5 times, then you get tax revenue. So I think, again, it's about patience. And also bear in mind that 50% of the profits of this industry in Norway has been made the last 5 years.

And this industry started for more than 50 years ago. So they are basing this proposal on a very short time period. And in this period, the Norwegian kroner has been record low. And according to my numbers, the super profit from 2000 to 2015 was NOK1 1,000,000,000 And from 'fifteen to 'nineteen, it was NOK20. So what we have seen the last 4 years is unprecedented.

So how can we build a system on this and believe that this will continue when we know what's going on with the RAS technology, etcetera. So according to ourselves, that would be a big mistake. So we do not believe in this and we do not believe that the Norwegian politicians will do this really. They are far too clever for taking this bait from the committee. So we believe in a good tax system in Norway also going forward that protect this industry and this industry's competitiveness towards the rest of the salmon world.

Speaker 5

Okay. And that brings us over to the next topic of land based salmon farming from Alexander Jones, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch. She's asking, do you think about land based salmon farming and Mobi's participation in full cycle land based salmon farming activities? What would change Moove's mindset about not participating in this area? And if this happened, how would you decide whether to build internally or buy externally?

Speaker 1

I'm not sure we can address all those questions. They were really good and I can understand why she asked them. But we also have to protect ourselves. But as everyone has noticed, so far, we have not done anything on land apart from building in small facilities and also growing in small to bigger. Our core assets are in sea.

So what we do is what we call fjord based salmon farming. That's what have taken the company where it is as the biggest salmon company with the biggest earnings. So we are, of course, following the situation closely, we are. So we have open eyes, open ears. But until further notice, we will continue to focus and invest in what we do today, which is fuel based salmon farming.

We think we can come around the shorter issues we have, 1st and foremost with the sea lies with better techniques. We also think they will come up new remedies that will change the current picture. At the end of the day, this is about cost. We do not believe in our resource tax in Norway. So we think the comparatives for the Norwegian fjords will still be there.

And as long as that is the case, we will continue to put our money on that type of farming. But if it changes, then we will adapt, of course. So we the movie is into this forever. So if the future is different, then we must align with the future. But right now, we continue with the current strategy.

And the day we decide otherwise, we will let you know afterwards.

Speaker 6

Lars Konrad, Jonsson, Carnegie. Just a quick question or more of a follow-up on the volume guidance. You had some ISA outbreaks or potential outbreaks, suspected is probably the right word, in January, how did that fit into your volume guidance? As far as I know, there were about 2,000,000, 2,500,000 individuals at risk.

Speaker 1

Yes. So we have had one outbreak, and that was at Wold Sniese and that was only 1,500,000 fish and it was harvestable fish. So that instead will not impact our volume guidance this year. So that's part of what we do. We have oyster every year in Norway.

So we have and the industry we have and we have our share roughly. And you will see that those numbers are quite stable over time. So will not change anything. And then there is the suspicion at the forget about the names. This is in region north.

But that's a suspicion. It's not confirmed yet. And that is the 1,700,000 fish, but it's not a harvestable weight yet. But in a few months, it will be. So for million, we don't know.

So based upon what we know today, our volume guidance is fine. And also remember that the base last year we produced 436,000 tonnes in Norway. So and when we said when we say we have 7,000,000 individuals as of year end, we are comparing to 'nineteen. And 'nineteen was also a very troublesome year for Mubi. We lost fish because of ISA.

We had 4 ISA incidents in moving over last year. Plus we also had to stamp out 3 sites in moving mid because of PD. So the wrong variant in the wrong area. So the baseline here, you could argue it's not the hardest one to beat. So far, there's nothing there that changes this.

And Aiza is a part of the biology in Norway. And we have 1 out of 5 fish. So then we also have our share with widespread we have in our recent portfolio.

Speaker 6

Thank you. And then the second one on Russia. You comment on the coronavirus. How do the Russian situation affect you and the overall market?

Speaker 1

Yes. Good question. So Russia, we as you have seen, we were excluded from Russia for Movie Chile, but that doesn't impact us much because we sold 4% of fish to Russia. So for Movie Chile, it's still business as usual. And that was also frozen, which is not the best paid product.

If you take the Ferros, for the Faroes, we are on what they call the yellow list. So we can still sell fish from the Faroes to Russia. And for rest of the movie, we are not allowed because of the ban. So Russia has banned all fish from EU.

Speaker 6

Could you comment on the overall market? And what's kind of there's a lot of harvest facilities in Chile banned also Paco Frost on Faroe Island. Is there a political agenda? Could you say something about the dynamics, time line, etcetera?

Speaker 1

No, rather not. So we just take this under advisement. So we are banned from Russia for the fish from Movi Shelly. So we accept that and that is the case until they say otherwise. Yes.

Okay. Then I would like to say thank you for showing up. We'll meet again in the next quarter. Meanwhile, take care, travel safe and spend your time as useful as you can.

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