Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nel's third quarter 2022 results presentation. My name is Håkon Volldal. I'm the CEO. With me today I have Kjell Christian Bjørnsen, our CFO, and Wilhelm Flinder, our head of IR. We have put our purple ties on. It's time to go through the quarterly results. We have the following agenda. Nel in brief. A bit boring for some of you. Hopefully interesting for those of you that are not familiar with Nel yet. We will dive into the third quarter highlights. We will cover some important political events during the quarter, the main commercial developments, summary and outlook, and then we get to the Q&A session. We're doing this slightly different this time around.
If you have questions, you can use the Q&A function in Teams to pose questions. When we get to the end, there's also an opportunity to ask questions orally. You can raise your hand, and Wilhelm will then get an overview of who's interested in posing questions directly to management. Okay. Nel. Nel is a global dedicated hydrogen technology company that delivers optimal solutions to produce, store, and distribute hydrogen from renewable energy. Our mission is simple: we unlock the potential of renewables, and we enable global decarbonization by doing that. Nel in brief, we are a pure-play hydrogen technology company with a global footprint. We are listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange.
We've been that since 2014, although our roots actually trace back to 1927, when we installed the first electrolyser. We are the largest electrolyser manufacturer in the world, with more than 3,500 units delivered to more than 80 countries around the world. We have a production capacity of 500 MW currently for alkaline, expanding that to 1 GW. We have a PEM production capacity of 50-100 MW, expanding that to 200 MW. We are also a leading manufacturer of hydrogen fueling stations, with more than 100 units installed in 14 countries around the world. We have large manufacturing facilities in Norway at Herøya, the U.S. in Connecticut, and Denmark in Herning. We have a global sales network. We have close to 600 employees now.
We are a preferred partner with industry leaders, and we have a cash reserve of NOK 3.5 billion to fund our expansion and growth. Next topic is the third quarter highlights. In terms of the financial results, revenues came in at NOK 183 million. A bit of a mixed picture that I will add some color to later on. Down 20% versus last year. EBITDA NOK -214 million , down versus NOK 113 million l ast year. Order backlog more than doubled since the third quarter in 2021, so we're now at NOK 2.1 billion, and that does not include the latest large-scale order announced in October. Order intake increased by a factor of more than five to almost NOK 800 million in the quarter.
Our cash balance is still solid, actually up 20% since the corresponding quarter last year, and stands at NOK 3.5 billion. The main developments in the third quarter were that we received the first large-scale purchase order for Alkaline stacks. 200 MW of Alkaline stacks going to a U.S. client with a value of roughly EUR 45 million. We also received small and mid-sized orders, one to Denmark for an Alkaline system valued at EUR 4 million. We have two containerized PEM systems, one to Australia, one to the U.S. We had also a nice contract win with a European client for fueling stations valued at EUR 8 million.
Based on the rapid growth in the order intake and the order backlog, we have decided also to expand our capacity in Norway for alkaline systems to 1 GW. We will add a second line at Herøya, bringing the total capacity to 1 GW by early 2024. Some nice events after closing of the quarter. We received our second large-scale contract, and this is actually higher in NOK value compared to the one we signed in July. This one with a disclosed customer, Woodside Energy, for stacks, balance of stacks and engineering services at NOK 600 million. We also received funding from the U.S. Department of Defense for accelerating development of advanced PEM electrolyser stacks.
That was two nice events after the third quarter that we will, of course, take with us in the fourth quarter. Now, when we look at the numbers, I would like to clarify a couple of things because there are sometimes comments that, based on the contracts that we have signed, you know, you expect the numbers to improve quite a bit. It's important to remind you that when we sign a contract, it's a large-scale project. It's not, you know, an electrolyser system, for instance. It's not something you take off the shelf, put in a cardboard box, and ship, and then, you know, we include it in our P&L. The revenue recognition period is quite long.
From when we sign the contract. For instance, the one we signed in July, you know, we will start to recognize revenues on that, where the bulk of the revenues will come in 2023. The NOK 600 million contract we signed in October will basically hit the P&L in 2024. What you see on the top line in this quarter and so far this year is the result of contracts that we signed in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Because order intake in that period was lower, we also have a lower revenue recognition in 2022 than some of you might expect. The impact of the large-scale orders will come in 2023, 2024 and subsequent years. NOK 183 million is down 20%.
We will elaborate a little bit on why that is because the electrolyser is actually stable and within the electrolyser alkaline is growing rapidly, whereas PEM had a decline. The main reason for why revenues are down is fueling. We had a low quarter in terms of revenues in fueling. I've explained a little bit why, you know, it takes time to get the new contracts into the P&L. It's not gonna change in the fourth quarter. You know, the big contracts will not impact fourth quarter either. On the operational expense side, in terms of OpEx, we need to front-load. We need to invest in production capacity ahead of contract signings. We need to hire people, educate them, train them on how to develop and deliver projects.
We need to invest in R&D to make sure we have the best people. Whereas revenue recognition takes time, OpEx of course hits now immediately and we need to front-load. Unless you front-load, you're not gonna win. This is the reason why EBITDA is negative. You could argue, is that sustainable? Of course not. We're investing now in order to grow the company. This is also the reason why we have raised a lot of equity. We have a cash balance of NOK 3.5 billion to fund exactly this period. This is the important thing. We have the fund to get through it. Of course, you know, we will look for solid revenue growth and improving profitability.
The way to get there is to increase order intake and order backlog because that will help us in the coming periods. When you also look at the total financials, I think it's important to differentiate between the two divisions. We haven't spent a lot of time on this previously, but actually in this quarter it makes a lot of sense. If we look at electrolyser in this quarter, revenues. It's flat. Alkaline actually increased revenues by a factor of 10 compared to last year. Tremendous growth in Alkaline even without the large-scale orders hitting the P&L. In PEM, we had a large delivery to Iberdrola last year, compared to that, we are down.
We also have supply chain issues on some of the industrial products, so despite record high sales of these PEM electrolysers, we're not able to ship the products from our factory to the customer. The lead times on certain components is currently very high. We expect it to improve, but right now it's a bit challenging. The fact that we're down in PEM doesn't mean that the market for PEM electrolysers is drying up or that we are not winning orders. It's a supply chain challenge. Also on the electrolyser side, if you look at the year-to-date figures, I think that's a better gauge for how things are developing. Revenues are up 50% or more than 50%. Despite the fact that we have not taken any of the big contracts to P&L, revenues are still up 50%.
If you look at profitability, it's negative. It's impacted by the fact that these smaller contracts that we are delivering on now that we signed in 2019 and 2020 and 2021 had a different margin structure. The market was not, you know, as vibrant and dynamic as it is today. We had to, you know, fight hard to win the contract. Some of them were taken with a low margin. We have not been fantastic in project execution either. We need to learn. Some of these projects have been executed with higher than anticipated costs. We learn and all these learnings and all these improvements that we are making in the project delivery model will of course help us going forward.
There's also inflationary pressure on the cost, which is difficult to pass on. When you sign a contract and metal prices start to increase, it's hard to adjust for that. In recent contracts, we have hedging mechanisms, which means that we are less exposed to raw material increases. We are now being hit by contracts that we signed with a different structure in the past. We've also hired a lot of people, as I said, so with increased personnel expenses, no wonder operating expenses go up. This is a little bit the story on electrolysers. Revenues and margins are expected to improve or will improve when we take the newly signed contracts to P&L in 2023 and 2024.
With increased revenues, we also get better margins, and we also don't have to add as much on the OpEx side as we've done. We, you know, OpEx as a share of revenues will come down and this will positively impact EBITDA. We are positive in our outlook for electrolysers. You have fueling. The main reason we are down versus last year is, of course, that we are down 57% in fueling. It shouldn't come as a big surprise. We have commented on this in previous quarters that order intake has been low, and it's basically a reflection of that. Also the year-to-date figure, as you can see, is down 45% on the revenue line.
Again, it's a consequence of weak order intake in previous quarters, plus the fact that we have some supply chain issues that are delaying deliveries. Again, what these supply chain issues are vary from month to month. I think that goes for all companies that try to manufacture products that you're hit by certain shortcomings. We're working our way through that to get components. In this quarter, sales of fueling stations has been extremely low. Also, fueling continues to contribute negatively to the overall results. It's not only the market, it's also the fact that we have high quality costs. We have an installed base of products. Utilization has been low. As consumers start to use the stations more, of course, there's more wear and tear.
We've had some quality issues on the stations, which means we have to replace components. We need to send service technicians out. This also drives higher personnel expenses. It's not only market related, there are also a lot of things we can improve internally. We have to admit that in fueling, we are dissatisfied with the profitability. We are intensifying actions to improve both the performance of the products in the field and therefore also profitability and look at other measures to improve profitability, in particular on the fueling side. This is a more positive story. This is why, you know, we are investing. This is why we are, you know, running with negative EBITDA, because we need to see order intake growth and backlog growth.
On the order intake side, in the third quarter, almost NOK 800 million . That's very high. So far this year, this quarter, in the fourth quarter, we're already above NOK 600 million , so of course the fourth quarter will also be great. If you look at the order intake, this is the story. This is why we're doing it. We're building this order backlog. This will come to P&L in 2023 and 2024. As we win more contracts, you know, the order backlog will continue to grow. As we will comment on in the outlook section, we expect more large-scale orders that will fuel the backlog, give higher revenues, and then also better performance over time.
I think on the order intake and the order backlog side, we are extremely pleased with recent developments. We see that Nel is competitive. We're able to win large-scale orders and we're building a healthy backlog, not only revenues, but you know contracts with the reasonable and actually quite solid margins that we can translate into better figures in the P&L in the years to come. Some political events that are important to understand the backdrop of Nel's business. First of all, IPCEI, which means Important Projects for Common European Interest, typical E.U. abbreviation. The second wave is likely to accelerate project final investment decisions across Europe. The E.U. has appointed 35 projects.
Nel has its fair share of those projects, not directly, but we are working with customers that will receive potentially funding from the E.U. to drive these projects forward. With support from the EU, of course, it's gonna be easier to make a final investment decision. The timing of these projects will vary, but we're in discussions with customers on a lot of different IPCEI projects, so we expect that some of them will come sooner rather than later, and some might still be pushed out a little bit. Should also say that even though a lot of positive things are happening on the E.U.. Side, it's still a bit unclear exactly how the mechanisms will work.
We are waiting for some clarifications in terms of the regulatory framework, both of when it comes to the definition of what renewable energy is, which is important for project developers and also for the Renewable Energy Directive to be finalized, by end of 2022. The E.U. is a bit stressed at the moment. They have put hydrogen high on the agenda. They want to be successful in hydrogen and not only successful, but lead in hydrogen. This happened. The E.U. is now worried that the U.S. will take the lead. To be frank, the U.S. has taken the lead due to this Inflation Reduction Act passed by the Biden administration.
It's possible, as we said in the previous quarter, to get up to $3 per kilogram of hydrogen produced in support of tax breaks, tax credits. If you look at Nel and the direct implication, the two largest orders that have been placed with Nel are both U.S.-based. I think our client, Woodside Energy, commented that with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the drive to accelerate the energy transition in the U.S. is underway, and of course, this impacts their investment decisions in the U.S. Clearly, you know, the IRA is helping our customers improve the business cases. It's easier to also then make purchase decisions and purchase orders with Nel, so this is clearly positive. As a consequence of this, the number of high-quality projects increasing. We are accelerating our site selection process.
We have previously communicated 4 GW potential capacity in the U.S. We need to find the right location. Of course, we also want the government to support Nel in establishing this facility. We can see that a lot of electrolyser manufacturers in Europe are getting grants. Norway is not so keen on giving grants, but in the U.S. it's possible. We will find a suitable site from a logistics point of view, from a business point of view, but also try to get some grants for establishing capacity in the U.S. to serve the booming U.S. market. We expect the U.S. to be a key market for Nel going forward, and it could be, you know, global hydrogen hub, and also, you know, Nel's second home, so to say.
We already have a sizable organization there. We have production capacity that we are expanding. You know, given the development in the U.S. market, we need even more capacity in the U.S. in the years to come. Some comments on the commercial developments, then we have to start with this, the record-size purchase order received in July, that represented the start of Nel's large-scale era. We spoke a lot about our pipeline and, you know, that big projects would eventually come, and then it came in July. We had to be patient, but this is a high-quality project. It's a purchase order that includes 200 MW of stacks only.
When analysts look at the announcements, I understand that they are sometimes confused because order sizes cannot be directly compared. It depends on the scope. This is just the stacks, just the tubes, you know, the electrodes. It means that it's a contract that over time might increase in value as we add peripheral equipment in what we call Balance of Stack and also services on top. The client actually chose Nel based on the internal research. This was a client that went through all the potential suppliers and came to Nel and said, "We have concluded you have the best solution. We want to work with you.
How do we do that? It was a fairly quick process to sign the contract. This will be a very positive contract for Nel. It has a different margin structure than we've had on contracts signed when there was limited demand. This is a contract that will, you know, have a considerable positive effect on both the P&L and for Nel in terms of learning and delivering large scale projects. Another interesting project not similar in size, but it's with Skovgaard Energy in Denmark, together with, you know, some high-quality partners, like Vestas. The project is the world's first dynamic green ammonia plant, renewable electricity from wind and solar connected directly to the electrolyser.
It's a demo plant that will test how an ammonia reactor can fluctuate operations based on renewable power input. Interesting project together with Skovgaard Energy then in Denmark. Two containerized systems sold in the third quarter, one to the U.S. for making sustainable aviation fuel to basically decarbonize the aviation sector, and one to Australia for making fuel-grade hydrogen directly to a fueling station. These are compact systems that are quite sort of modular and easy for the customer to install, commission, and get in operation. We also received a nice purchase order finally for fueling stations from a European client.
You can see from the past that the order intake on the fueling side has been limited, so this was a helpful contract. We will start to deliver on that in early 2023. The lead time on this is a bit shorter than normal. It includes service and maintenance over time, so nice fueling contract. A subsequent event, we received close to $6 million from U.S. Department of Defense to improve our PEM technology or further develop our PEM technology. It includes development on new membranes, looking into high-volume manufacturing methods, how we can reduce the use of precious metals, and also some interesting testing opportunities at ERDC and CERL in the U.S.
We broke another record. In October, we recently announced a NOK 600 million contract with Woodside Energy, very interesting project. They will produce liquid hydrogen for major transport companies. Production and deliveries of stacks will start in 2024. The contract includes both the stacks and what we call the balance of stack with the separation system. Again, this will have a substantial positive financial impact on Nel. Margin is healthy. Terms and conditions are good. It's similar in scope and size to the other contract that we signed in July. We're, you know, moving from 10 MW, 20 MW projects to 150 MW, 200 MW, 250 MW projects, and over time even bigger projects.
It's a nice learning curve, and it fits into, you know, our strategy of selecting customers, high-quality customers that have a high potential of reaching FID and that are willing to commit to placing orders early on. Woodside Energy is a very interesting client for Nel. It's a customer that we can also develop together with, scale with. There are lots of opportunities for repeat business. They're building five or six of these sites in the U.S. They also have large plants in Australia for major hydrogen export hubs out of Australia to Asia. And as this company has a lot of experience in LNG, is one of the world's largest exporters of liquid natural gas, it's a high-quality customer for us.
A very interesting partner also to work with because they have the industrial background and experience that we're looking for. To the summary and outlook. I think even though the results go a bit up and down and we still report on the backlog that was, you know, the result of contracts made in 2019, 2020 and 2021, and then maybe not the best contracts, I think, you know, I would like to make the point that we do actually deliver on what we promise. We have been a bit conservative in terms of what we have communicated, you know, when it comes to these large-scale contracts and when it will happen. We have said that we have.
We were, you know, historically have said that we are confident that they will come. In the first quarter presentation, we said the pipeline grows and projects are getting bigger. We won the 200 MW order. After that we said the 200 MW order is not a one-off. I think, you know, it's nice then to report a NOK 600 million contract a few months later. Now we are saying more large-scale orders are coming. We are confident that there will be more large-scale orders, and that actually the large-scale orders are the ones that we are going for. That's, you know, what makes this business interesting. It's not the small pilot cases and demo plants. You know, now we're moving forward with large-scale orders.
I think I would like to go back to the U.S. a little bit because what has been our main market, especially for alkaline products, has been the European market, and Europeans take it step by step. They do a small demo plant and then they might consider a phase one investment into a larger facility, whereas in the U.S. it's pedal to the metal and they go large immediately. Especially now with the funding, they bypass all the testing stages. They go straight to the large-scale projects. Even the projects we are delivering on have, you know, phase two, three, four and five over time. It will not stop with these orders. They might develop into gigawatt projects. I think that's important.
They have plans to expand from an initial phase of 200 MW maybe up to more than 1 GW. Why are we saying that more large-scale orders are coming, and why are we so confident that this will happen? Well, first of all, the market outlook is extremely positive. We can see it in our pipeline. The pipeline continues to improve and mature. We're not talking to dreamers anymore. We're talking to people that have industrial backgrounds, that have financing in place. They have secured land. They have secured electricity. They have all the prerequisites in place, and they have a solid business case. It's more about finding the right timing to do it. Customers realize that they are not the only ones looking into hydrogen.
Even though there are 25, 30 providers of electrolyser stacks, not all of them are experienced. Not all of them have the scale to deliver. Actually, very few have the scale to deliver. They are concerned that near term it will be difficult to get sufficient electrolysers. I know external market research says that the capacity in 2025 will be 40 GW-50 GW. I disagree. I think it will be a fraction of that. There's no way it will be 40 GW-50 GW by, you know, in 2025. It will take much longer, much longer. Customers realize that. They come to Nel because we have installed production capacity. We take them to Herøya. They see that this is not just PowerPoint. It's a real factory with real output, automated equipment, trained operators.
They also know we have a track record of delivering on what we promise. We continue to secure high-quality, large-scale orders with attractive margins. You know, in a market where customers are concerned about supply, of course you're able to increase prices. Even though the outlook is very positive, I should also caution and, you know, we shouldn't expect a large-scale order every single quarter. That's not what we're saying. We're saying, you know, in one quarter it might be zero. In the next quarter it could be two or three over time, right? It will vary.
Also realizing that these large-scale contracts require commitment and you're dealing with professional counterparties that need approvals from, you know, seasoned board members and they have an authorization matrix and it's not just something they sign off on. You know, tens of millions of euros and hundreds of millions of euros require a thorough approval process. The timing from when we start discussions until the contract is ready for signing. It takes time, but that's a sign of quality. Our pipeline is extremely promising. Some are fast-tracking, some are spending a bit more time. Again, we are extremely happy with the quality of the prospects that we are working with.
When it comes to how we select our projects, we start by looking at the business case and the application, and then we need to decide on do we have a suitable technology offering. Because we have a broad technology base, we can, you know, meet customer requirements by being a bit technology agnostic. We're not a one-trick pony. We don't only offer alkaline or only offer PEM. We have the luxury of actually choosing the right product for the application. That also creates trust among customers that we're not just, you know, badmouthing competing technology and speaking highly of our own technology. We are sort of, you know, we're neutral in a way. We can pick what is right for the project. We're also looking for high-quality counterparties.
You know, a lot of people are trying to get through the door and book production capacity, then we need to make sure that the projects we actually sign are high-quality projects with customers that can actually take FID. We need a high probability to win. We need to see that Nel is in a position to create value for the customer, but also get paid what we need in order to build a profitable business. There has to be, you know, a good match between what we can offer and what the customer appreciates in terms of doing business with Nel. That means we're looking for attractive margins and acceptable risk profile. Think I mentioned that earlier. Prices are going up, and they will continue to be attractive as long as capacity is limited.
As I said, my personal belief is that capacity will be limited for a much longer period than you know, some analyst reports and market reports believe. As a consequence of more large-scale orders coming, we have decided to increase the threshold for what we regard as insider information. We will no longer disclose all orders above EUR 2 million. We will only disclose orders above EUR 5 million, unless an order is seen as you know, very strategic. It could be you know, a EUR 3 million or EUR 4 million contract with a with a very reputable company. And you know, we might disclose that. As a general rule, a rule of thumb, we will now start to disclose contracts that are above EUR 5 million.
We think that sort of supports the equity story and also our strategy of pursuing large-scale projects over time. As they are now coming, I think it's a meaningful shift so that when we communicate something from the company, it's aligned with what the investor community is actually looking for and finds material for the Nel share. To sum up, a bit of a mixed bag of results in the third quarter, again, related to what happened several quarters ago in terms of order intake. What pleases us is that the order intake and the backlog is increasing because that means that we will report higher revenues and better profitability in coming quarters. It's not a quick turnaround.
When we sign a contract, it doesn't hit the current quarter or the next quarter or the quarter after that. It takes usually 12-18 months for that to happen. That's an important reminder. Having said that, Nel is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the increasing market demand that we see is coming. It's now finally happening. It's not only Nel that is receiving large-scale orders, also competitors. That's good because we need to build the hydrogen industry. Now, we will take our share of that, and we will fight for 100%, but realistically speaking, we cannot win 100%. It's good that, you know, all these orders are being placed because it proves that, you know, this is finally coming of age. Now, why are we in a position to claim sort of the leading position?
Why do we say that we're number one by nature? Well, it's because we have an unrivaled track record. We have decades of experience. You know, we go back to the black and white pictures from 1927. Actually, the two largest electrolyser systems that have ever been built and operated were delivered by Nel, 160 MW and 135 MW. We have the largest installed base, which means we've gathered operational data for decades. Now, if you buy, you know, electrolyser systems for, you know, hundreds of millions of NOK, do you buy something that has never been tested from a supplier that has, you know, no track record, no experience? You're buying a product because you expect it to last for 8-10 years.
Now, unless you have had a product in the field for 8-10 years, how can you trust that it actually will last for 8-10 years? We have done that. We have the operational data for lots of systems going back decades. We have proven technology, and we can offer performance guarantees, which means when you do business with Nel, you also end up with a bankable solution. As I said, we have a broad product portfolio. We have high system efficiency and high durability, and we have world-class safety. We claim that we have technology leadership, and I'm proud to stand behind that. We also claim that we have cost and scale leadership, and I'm also proud to stand behind that because we are a front runner in cost reduction.
We are the market-leading company when it comes to automating production processes. We have leading production capabilities. We have numerous initiatives to bring the cost down. I dare to say that we offer the best total cost of ownership for the customer. We're also supported in terms of strong financing because we need to front load. We need to take early investment decisions in order to grow. If we try to sort of run this by optimizing, you know, the coming two, three quarters, we'll never be number one. You can't be number one in this industry if you take that approach. You need to front load both in terms of people and in terms of assets. That's why we have the strong financing.
Customers can actually rely on Nel to be around, even though numbers in certain quarters maybe are not so good. We have the funding in place to secure that over time, we develop this into a profitable business and become a reliable and trusted partner as they scale their products. That's it. We move on to the Q&A session. I will be joined by Kjell Christian, our CFO, and Wilhelm . You will take the lead on the Q&A.
Yes. Thank you. We have some questions coming in already, and as a reminder for the ones that wants to ask questions, please use the Raise Hand function, and we'll call up the name and activate the microphone to the one next in line. Please make sure you have activated the microphone on your end. Note that we will keep camera for the ones dialing in disabled. Please also maximum only two questions per person due to time constraints. If more time, you can always go back into the line. Also, if we have time, we will also take written questions submitted through the Q&A function. And if there are questions we don't have time to answer, please reach out to us on ir@nelhydrogen.com.
As a reminder, we will not comment on outlook-specific targets, detailed terms and conditions on contracts, as well as questions on specific markets. Modeling questions we would also appreciate is taken offline directly with me. We're gonna start with Christopher Leonard. Your microphone is now activated. Please go ahead. Christopher Leonard, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yeah. Hey, guys. Can you hear me now?
Yes.
Hi. Morning. Look, thank you very much for the presentation, and, you know, I'll just go with two questions, please. You're speaking about the weak profitability for historic orders, and obviously your conviction here is that the rollout of gigafactories from your competitors will potentially be weaker than what the market's expecting. Just wondering what your conviction is around that, given that you also state that they are winning orders. I mean, do you think you've got some sort of differentiation on your pathway to increase, you know, your capacity?
The second question, sort of what are you doing on your current density for the alkaline electrodes that you have, given that from the data we see, it looks like you're behind some of the peers, and where are you, I guess, in your sort of technology pathway for your alkaline technology? How much further do you have to go on that? That's my two. Thank you very much.
Yeah. I think when it comes to production capacity expansion, we have made a final investment decision on line two, which will be up and running early 2024. If we get additional orders, I think you know it's a natural pathway to expand Herøya the Norwegian facility to full capacity, 2 GW. We are expanding our PEM production capacity in the U.S. towards 200 MW initially, and probably double that for 500 MW over time in the existing location. But we're also looking to establish a new gigawatt facility in North America, given the high demand from North America. The exact timing will of course depend on site selection and funding processes.
I think, you know, we have a pathway towards during this decade, 8 GW-10 GW of production capacity is what we have communicated as an ambition. Herøya will deliver 2 GW, maybe U.S. will deliver an additional 4 GW on top of the 500 MW, so then you are at 6.5. Then you need, you know, another facility, and whether that's in the European Union or in Australia or somewhere else, we have to come back to. The reason I'm saying that I think capacity, I don't trust the capacity expansion plans, is that, well, if you look at what is actually installed, it's limited. You look at what is actually under construction, then it's a bit more.
A lot of people just take what has been communicated as an ambition. They put in, Oh, Nel is gonna have 10 GW, and it will probably be by 2025, and they do the same for our competitors. That's not the fact. That's an ambition. What is actually under construction is, you know, maybe 40% or 30% of that number. Knowing the lead times on getting equipment, I don't understand how all this capacity will be, you know, available. It takes time to get the equipment. It takes time to train the operators. You know, we have the production concept ready. We're just copy-pasting that, and that takes more than a year.
How can competition just, you know, add something that they is brand new and do that with a factor of 5? I don't believe in that. I think it's grossly overstated, you know, some of these ambitions. You can see also that some companies have gone out and said that, you know, we're not gonna pursue the same aggressive expansion. You know, we're gonna settle with something less. You know, do the analysis. What is installed? What is actually being built? Then what is the ambition? Then I think, you know, what is actually being built is what we need to base it on because that is what will be available to customers in the coming few years.
As regards the current density question, the second question on technology, it's no problem to increase current density by throwing in more expensive components. You can throw in a lot of platinum, and then you can just up current density quite easily. What we have done through several years is to optimize on total cost of ownership for the client. You know, of course, then we will be higher on some parameters and lower on other parameters when it comes to how the technical specification of the electrolyser works, but you optimize the current and the total cost of producing the hydrogen over time. We are, of course, working to increase the current density and also increase the active area.
You know, that are steps that will take us down to the cost targets we need to go to. That being said, all technology platforms will not end up at the same current density.
I think it's also fair to say that what is written in the product fact sheet cannot always be trusted. It's like when you buy a car and you know what is the range on an electric vehicle? Well, it's 500 KM. Oh, yeah, under these conditions. But under normal conditions, it might be 420 KM. During winter, it's 380 KM. So I think don't always look at the fact sheets and compare directly. I know it's tempting to do that, but it doesn't tell the full story. Some of these products that you know there are fact sheets about are only lab-tested products. They haven't been tested out in the field over time. So what you see in the fact sheet is an ideal condition, you know, at SAT.
Measure it after two years or one year, do you have the same performance? Probably not.
Thanks very much. Appreciate those honest answers.
The next question comes from the line of Erwan from RBC. Your microphone is now activated. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. Another question on profitability, please, and a forward-looking one. You guide to electrolyser revenues and margins improving when recently signed contracts reach revenue recognition in 2023, 2024. The key question for me is when should we expect this to be reflected? Is it more like a first half 2023 story? Second half? Can you give a little bit more color on that? Then what kinds of gross margins should we expect? Thank you.
I think when it comes to gross margin, we will not disclose that, because as we already disclose, capacity and revenues, if we also then disclose margins, it's quite easy to figure out our cost structure. I think we would like to keep that a secret for now, given all the contracts we are working to sign. Don't wanna have pressure on this in the negotiation. We don't wanna comment on gross margins. Understand the question. Will probably be easier to gauge that when we get more revenues and, you know, these orders come in, then you can also see it from the P&L a bit better. I think I will let Kjell Christian handle the other part of that question. Sorry for not answering directly.
When it comes to the revenue recognition part, we can't be more precise at this point in time. Our experience to date is that when you do the detailed planning with the client, then there will be adjustments in the timeline, and more often than not, that is a delay. You know, the historical projects that we have signed have all taken longer, from signing to revenue recognition than the shared ambition between the customer and ourselves at the time.
Thank you. Thanks very much.
All right. Next question comes from the line of Zoe Clarke. Please go ahead. Your microphone is enabled.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yes.
Thank you very much. This is Zoe from Goldman Sachs. I have two questions, if I may. The first one, it's regarding the very challenged fueling division. Clearly it's been a drag this year, and a little bit more volatile, if that's even possible, on revenues and profitability. What is the strategic outlook here? You know, what can you do to make this better? Or will it perhaps be the right time to look to monetize this? You know, I'm just wondering strategically-wise, how does the fueling division fit into your strengths and whether it is part of your long-term ambition? And then the second question is regarding your site selection in the U.S. It's been ongoing for some time. Can I just confirm that here the plan is to actually expand both in PEM and alkaline, which I believe was mentioned previously?
What are the key factors, let's say, that you consider when you're choosing the state? Where do you see currently the biggest opportunity if we were to shortlist locations? Thank you.
Yeah, maybe to start with the second question regarding site selection. We can confirm that we're looking for a facility where we have the opportunity to build both PEM and alkaline capacity. You know, North America has historically been PEM, but our two recent contracts, both of them large-scale contracts, have been alkaline equipment. I think the North American market will demand both technologies. We will look for a facility where we can do both. The exact location will. You know, we're not doing this on our own. We have some external professional help in terms of selecting the right sites. What we're looking for is, of course, a site that from a business perspective makes sense.
What does that mean? Well, you need qualified labor. You need people that are willing to work shifts. You would like to have cooperations with the, you know, universities that have some experience in what we're doing or similar industries. You would like to have an okay starting point when it comes to logistics and shipping all these products out in the field. You would like to, of course, then also add the dimension of receiving grants. When you've looked at all the you know, we have a range of selection criteria from a business perspective, and then you need to overlay that with, okay, where can you get state support? Where do you get additional support from, you know, let's say, hydrogen hub initiatives?
We will try to maximize what we can receive in terms of support and grants. At the core of it's the business, of course, that drives it. We have said that we will conclude that selection process in first half 2023, of course, aiming to close it as soon as possible. We're not gonna spend six months just to spend it. I think, you know, there's a lot of changes happening on the political side, and not on the political side, but the support side in terms of available schemes and grants.
It might be that it's wise to call options on a few different sites and then make the absolute final decision when there's more clarity on how much money you can get in support. At least then start the purchasing of long lead items for that site. Will you take the first one?
On the fueling side, we see, and as we have talked about, revenues have been poor for a few quarters now because we have had a lag in signing large new contracts. Fueling came into the company at a point in time when the belief was that there will be a lot of cross-selling between the divisions. You would typically buy a package with electrolysers for making the hydrogen and fueling for fueling it. That synergy has been much less than expected. The businesses are, to a large extent, you know, operating individually, of course, with a shared back office and shared hydrogen competence. In a few limited cases, there is that cross-selling still.
We are continuing to develop them more like independent businesses, and we'll be looking at options how we can, you know, improve the total position of Nel and the fueling division.
If I may add, you know, we're not, as we clearly expressed in the report, we are not happy with the current performance of the fueling business. We will be looking into ways to improve profitability or address the losses and intensify that work going forward. It's a valid question.
Thank you.
Okay. Next question comes from the line of Arthur Sitbon. Please, go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. First one is on fueling, the fueling business. I mean, I was wondering if basically you could consider sell the business or at least look for a partner. Would that be one of the options to try to improve the profitability there? My second question is you talked about the gap in profitability between old orders and more recent ones. I understand that you can't comment on what you're targeting exactly, but maybe you could give us some more details on that gap that you're trying to close on how much of an improvement you would like to see.
My last question is, I was wondering if you could provide a bit more detail on your involvement in projects that got approval through the IPCEI in Europe, and if you expect orders coming from that and under which time horizon. Thank you very much.
I think the second question we answered during the presentation that 35 projects are now being notified and we have our fair share of those projects. You know, we're involved in 40%-50% of those projects, meaning we have discussions. It doesn't mean that, you know, the customers will always select Nel, but you know, we are working on 40%-50% of that backlog. The first question regarding fueling, I think we have alluded to that. I understand the questions and it's you know.
I would probably also ask the same question, but if you were me, you wouldn't answer that question, because if you say, Oh, you know, we're gonna sell this business or that business, or, you know, we will close it down, then you don't put yourself in a very favorable strategic position. When it comes to portfolio adjustments and divestments and strategic partnerships and, you know, how we think about the business strategically, I think we have to come back to you on that. I think what we are saying today is that we recognize that we have a challenge when it comes to profitability and fueling, and we will address that. When you say we will address that, I think that includes a lot of different opportunities to address it.
There was a question in between there on the gross margin improvement. We're not giving exact gross margins, but it's a significant improvement. Of course, when we are looking at the future, we need to see a mix of gross margin and overall cost structure that gives a reasonable return on the capital investment that is a massive step up from the currently realized margin picture.
Yeah. The realized margin picture is, you know, a result of lower prices than we have today, but also a higher cost on Nel's side and, you know, execution that definitely can be improved. It's not only linked to the margin on the contracts, it's also Nel's ability to deliver these contracts in a profitable and good way. We will learn and improve. The improvement potential is somewhat externally driven but also internally driven.
Thank you.
All right, next question is from an anonymous user, but I understand it's Alexander Jones from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
See this one over there.
Alexander Jones, your microphone is open. Okay, we're gonna do the next question from Deepa Venkateswaran. Your microphone is now activated. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Thank you so much for taking my call. This is Deepa Venkateswaran from Bernstein. My two questions, one is just on the recent Woodside order. Could you comment on the order size, or at least confirm that it's largely similar to the previous large order or in that ballpark? Second question is on European customers taking FIDs. Do you see that the slowdown there is driven by, I don't know, firefighting because of the energy crisis? Because maybe some of these industrial customers are also facing some problems over there, or is it related to the bureaucracy with IPCEI? You know, the IPCEI approvals coming later or even delays to the definition of green hydrogen. Could you maybe talk about what you're seeing on the FIDs on the European side? Thank you.
On the Woodside contract, it's. Again, I understand the question. It would be preferable to give both the megawatts and contract value so you can calculate it. Again, we have to in the interest of protecting a little bit our pricing and you know if we want terms and conditions to be good on future contracts, we cannot disclose all details. I can say this, it's ballpark similar to the contract announced in July, but it's smaller in megawatt.
With a wider scope.
With a wider scope.
Yes.
So, so.
Yes
If you compare the two stock exchange announcements, there is some hints to them in terms of scope and what is delivered and what is not included. That is what is really driving the difference there.
Yeah. When it comes to the European FIDs, I think a lot of projects will go ahead irrespective of IPCEI funding. It doesn't help that the IPCEI funding process is delayed, and it doesn't help that we have regulations that are not clear to companies. I think that is also our message to the European Commission that businesses prefer schemes like IRA in the U.S. because then the market actually dictates which projects that will be run. In the E.U., bureaucrats are selecting which projects that will be run. I think it doesn't help, FID, that it's dragging out. I think some of these larger energy companies and, you know, companies that are properly financed will still move ahead with hydrogen because there is a need to do it.
As time is running out now, we have to end the presentation. I will give it back over to management for any final remarks.
That wasn't in the script, Wilhelm. It caught us off guard. No, I think, you know, not totally thrilled with the numbers, but again, we're not. You know, we have to impact and influence what we can, and that is the future. I think, you know, we're doing everything we can and the order intake is increasing, the backlog is increasing. Know that we will be able to convert that increasing backlog into good or better numbers, far better numbers, going forward. We're not so concerned about that. We've been looking at the business right now. I think the outlook has never been better for electrolysers, I have to say.
It's a very interesting time, and I think we are well positioned to capture our fair share of that market. Now it's happening. Now it's not only PowerPoint and graphs, it's real orders coming. Remember that is the key takeaway from this presentation. More large scale orders are coming.
Thank you.