Sorry for some technical trouble. We are back. Again, welcome to Hydro's second quarter 2025 presentation and Q&A. We will start off with a presentation by our President and CEO, Eivind Kallevik, before our CFO, Trond Olaf Christophersen, will take us through the financial results. We will finish off with the Q&A session. If you would like to ask questions during the session, you can write your questions in the chat that you should see on the screen. After presentations, I will ask your questions directly to Eivind and Trond Olaf. Before that, we have a presentation, and with that, I leave the word to you, Eivind.
Thank you, Martine, and good morning and welcome from me as well. Safety remains the most important part of our quarterly reporting, as the well-being of our employees is fundamental for our success across all locations. In this quarter, I'm pleased to report a low number of injuries. Both the total recordable injuries and the number of high-risk incidents have shown a downward trend over the past few years, and this quarter, we have successfully maintained these low numbers. This positive development is a testament to the daily efforts at all our plants. Safety is an ongoing commitment because even though we can record good results today, we are mindful that conditions can quickly change if we lose focus.
First and foremost, a strong safety culture demonstrates care for our employees, ensuring everybody returns home safely at the end of the day, and that is our most important responsibility as an employer. While employee well-being will always be our primary motivation, maintaining good safety performance also contributes positively to the stability and efficiency of our operations. Fewer incidents naturally lead to less downtime and lower costs, enabling us to better execute on targets and strengthen our long-term value creation. Now let's look at the key highlights this quarter, which we will dig deeper into. In today's presentation. Despite an unpredictable market environment, I'm pleased to report strong results this quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA coming in at NOK 7.8 billion. Also yielding a free cash flow at NOK 5 billion, giving us an adjusted ratio of 12%, which is well above the target of 10% over the cycle.
To respond proactively to market volatility, we are reducing our 2025 capital expenditure target by NOK 1.5 billion, and we have implemented hiring freeze for white-collar employees in the company. Both of these actions are designed to enhance our flexibility and resilience, and I will get back to these details and measures shortly. On the energy side, despite challenges in the wind and solar markets, both in Brazil and the Nordics, we have managed to stay well positioned in a volatile landscape with a robust sourcing portfolio. Lastly, we can report that we are well on our track executing on our improvement targets for 2025. Geopolitical unpredictability has become the norm rather than an exception, in particular in the years following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This is now well into its fourth year.
Rivalry and rhetoric between great powers is becoming even more pronounced, and tensions in the Middle East have escalated beyond Gaza, including Lebanon, Syria, and Iran in just the past few months. Countries are facing direct threats, global markets are under pressure, and this is weighing on consumer confidence. In the U.S., the Trump administration has completed its first six months, and we've seen constant changes related to tariffs and to trade. As a global company operating in more than 40 countries, trade tensions, conflicts, and rising geopolitical risks affect the entire value chain. We are closely monitoring these developments, both the direct impact on our locations and the potential ripple effects on the global economy, and that allows us to take proactive steps to mitigate these challenges.
On a more positive note, we continue to see strong regulatory momentum for sustainability and climate action in Europe, most recently with the European Commission's proposal for a 90% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. Despite different trends elsewhere, as well as a more challenging market, we continue to see strong demand for low carbon and recycled products in most of our important markets. Both the regulatory direction and the market pull reinforce our strategic direction towards 2030 of pioneering the green aluminium transition. However, to capture the long-term opportunities, we also need to react to the challenges in the short term. To effectively address the increasing volatility and unpredictability, we are taking decisive measures. First of all, we are reducing our full year 2025 CapEx guidance by NOK 1.5 billion.
The current economic and geopolitical environment, with trade disruptions, regulatory uncertainty, and unpredictable markets, requires enhanced flexibility in forecasting as well as our capacity planning. The revised investments will specifically target flexibility, robust risk management, and rapid adaptability to economic and policy changes. This positions Hydro to maintain our strategic agility, ensuring that we remain one step ahead in navigating future uncertainties. Secondly, we have implemented an external hiring freeze for all white-collar positions across the group functions, business areas, global business services, and this is effective immediately. This freeze gives us necessary space and clarity to thoroughly review the current white-collar workforce. The goal of this review is to ensure optimal alignment with our strategic priorities, operational efficiency, and evolving business needs. This process has just begun, and we will share additional information as it becomes available. The markets for wind and solar are facing challenges.
Despite this, we can still report on a robust sourcing portfolio. As illustrated in the graph to the right, we have power purchase agreements that will cover our sourcing need at the Norwegian smelters beyond 2030. This ensures robustness in challenging markets. As we can see on the left side of the slide, we have just recently decided to terminate the Nordic power purchase agreement due to undelivered volumes. Since November 2024, we have faced challenges with Swedish cloud Snurran AB, and in July, we agreed to voluntarily terminate the power purchase agreement. This entitles Hydro to compensations of up to EUR 90 million for the non-delivered volumes and for the future power deliveries. The ultimate compensation will, of course, depend on the realized values from a future sales process and an agreed value sharing mechanism. This event reinforces the value of pursuing a diversified and robust sourcing portfolio.
We are constantly exploring options and actively pursuing cost-competitive renewable power sources to remain robust also for the future. In Brazil, we continue to see challenges with the grid, ongoing constraints, transmission bottlenecks, and some regulatory uncertainty. These factors continue to limit renewable energy deliveries and put pressure on both volumes and prices. Given these structural issues, Hydro has adjusted return requirements for our energy investments in Brazil. As a consequence, we report roughly NOK 400 million in impairments in our Brazilian energy assets. On the other side, the power deliveries to Albras and Alunorte continue in accordance with the PPAs entered into. We can see from the graph below on the right-hand side that the power sourcing situation in Brazil will continue to be stable over the next years. Halfway into 2025, I'm also very pleased to report on the status of our 2030 improvement program.
Several initiatives have been implemented so far this year, and I'm really proud to say that we are ahead of target. Let me highlight a few concrete actions from the first half of 2025. First of all, we are expanding on our greener sales. Year-to-date 2025, we've increased sales of greener products by nearly 50% compared to 2024, measured in total upcharge revenue. In this quarter, we also signed the first Hydro Accord sales contract with a major auto manufacturer in North America. This milestone agreement, along with the strong growth in greener sales, supports the long-term market assumptions behind the 2030 strategy. Just to illustrate how far the sustainability position we have now extends, on a slightly lighter note, we were even named Sustainable Achievement of the Year by ELLE Decoration International in April.
Now, of course, this is not exactly your standard metals and mining award, but it certainly speaks volumes about the strength of our brand. Showing how Hydro's position as the leading provider of low carbon and recycled aluminium is gaining recognition far beyond traditional industrial cycles. As well as a clear signal that our leadership and sustainability translates into premium value for our customers and for Hydro. Secondly, in extrusions, we continue to pursue efficiency improvements. Through automation, we expect to reduce more than 100 FTEs in 2025 and an additional 200-250 in 2026. This program has roughly a three-year payback period and is expected to deliver close to NOK 150 million in annual cost reductions. Standardization of automation equipment is a key enabler in this process. These projects help improve ergonomics, productivity, quality, and safety, while also easing recruitment challenges in a tight labor market.
Hydro Extrusions has faced a challenging market for some time, yet executing on a broad set of initiatives has yielded a more robust and competitive business. The improvement program continues to drive us steadily towards our 2030 target of NOK 6.5 billion in accumulated improvements. On the commercial side, we are making progress through various growth initiatives. On the procurement side, we are delivering sourcing savings in line with the targets. Operationally, we remain focused on cost reductions and efficiency in support functions. In short, we are continuing to push forward, and we remain on track to reach the 2030 goals. With that, I hand the word over to Trond Olaf for this quarter's financial update.
Thank you, Eivind, and good morning, and welcome from me as well. Starting with the bauxite and alumina.
After an eventful 2024 dominated by refinery disruptions and bauxite supply challenges, the global alumina market has been stabilizing since the start of 2025. Around 10 million tons of new alumina capacity is expected to come online from India, Indonesia, and China this year, with full impact expected in 2026. After the fall in alumina prices we saw in Q1, prices have stabilized around $360 per ton for most of Q2, with a small drop to $330 per ton early in the quarter. On the bauxite side, the market witnessed some notable events in Guinea. After revoking several bauxite mining licenses in the country, the government announced a package of measures aimed at increasing the government's influence in the industry. The proposed reforms include, amongst others, the creation of a Guinean bauxite index and the use of ships with Guinean registrations to transport at least 50% of bauxite output.
At the same time, China is becoming more and more dependent on Guinea as their main external source for bauxite, and the Guinean import share peaked at above 80% during the quarter. Looking ahead to Q3 2025, the alumina market outside China is expected to remain tight, but oversupply in China could meet any shortfall. According to CRU, a small surplus of around 700,000 tons is expected in 2025 in the 58 million ton world ex-China market. Consequently, the market would remain sensitive to any production disruptions. On June 4, the rate increase for U.S. Section 232 tariffs on aluminium came into effect, raising the tariffs from the initial 25% established in March this year to the new 50% level. This impacted both LME and premiums. Looking at the global primary aluminium balance, external estimates suggest that the market will remain roughly balanced in 2025.
In light of continued tariff developments, the global alumina market outlook for 2025 could be revised towards lower demand for the year. The three-month LME aluminium price dropped sharply early in the quarter towards $2,300 per ton, following the U.S. administration's Liberation Day announcements on tariffs. However, prices later recovered, and overall, the three-month LME aluminium price increased over the quarter, starting at $2,507 per ton and ending at $2,598 per ton. This upward movement contrasts with the more stable price development seen in Q1, reflecting both speculative activity and shifting market sentiment. Regional premiums were materially impacted by tariffs during the quarter, further increasing the gap between different regions. The U.S. Midwest premium surged from $844 to $1,432 per ton during Q2, driven by the tariff hike and speculative activity, reaching all-time highs in early June.
On the other hand, European duty-paid standard ingot premiums declined from $205 to $185 per ton, reflecting weak demand and concerns over redirected Canadian metal inflows into Europe. This divergence in regional premiums highlights a growing imbalance in how different regional markets are absorbing the effects of trade policy and geopolitical risks. Rather than the tariffs' direct impact on the company, Hydro's main concern remains the broader risk of a global economic slowdown, which would weaken demand and challenge current price levels as a consequence. Furthermore, long-lasting high Midwest premiums could pose a real risk of demand destruction in the U.S. Moving downstream, extrusion demand continued at moderate levels in both Europe and North America during Q2, with order index continuing to increase. In Europe, extrusion demand is estimated to have remained flat in Q2 2025 compared to the same period last year, but increased by 4% from Q1.
Demand for building and construction and industrial segments has stabilized at moderate levels, with some uptick in order bookings throughout the quarter. Automotive demand has been negatively impacted by lower European light vehicle production in the quarter, partly offset by increased production of electrical vehicles. For Q3 2025, CRU estimates that European demand for extruded products will increase by 1% Year-over-Year. Overall, extrusion demand is estimated to increase by 1% in 2025 compared to 2024. In North America, extrusion demand is estimated to have continued its decline by 1% in Q2 2025 compared to the same quarter last year, but increased 5% compared to Q1. Extrusion demand has continued to be very weak in the commercial transport segment, driven by lower trailer builds. Automotive demand has also been weak. Demand has been positive in the building and construction and industrial segments.
While the impacts from the introduction of tariffs and duties are still uncertain at this stage, order bookings have started to develop better for domestic producers due to lower imports. In Q3 2025, North American extrusion demand is expected to further decrease by 1% Year-over-Year. Overall, extrusion demand is estimated to decrease 2% in 2025 compared to 2024. Hydro extrusion sales volumes increased by 1% Year-over-Year in Q2 2025. Similar to the previous quarter, transport volume developments were negative, but the downward trend seems to be slowing down. Shipments to the U.S. transport market were down 11% in Q2 versus 20% in Q1. Automotive sales in Q2 were still negative in extrusion Europe, driven by continued moderate production at some car manufacturers. Automotive sales in North America were flat in Q2, as negative overall market development was offset by increasing volumes to key customers.
Sales volume growth in the industrial and distribution segments continued to increase in Q2, still from a low base due to market headwinds over the past two years. Hydro extrusions continue to see a significant increase in volume from HVAC and R segment, driven by copper substitution trends. For Q3, sales volumes in Hydro Extrusions are expected to be somewhat higher than the underlying market, especially in North America. Moving to EBITDA, and when looking at the results Q2 versus Q1, we saw significant negative effects from upstream prices. Of the total negative contribution of NOK 3.7 billion, over 90% came from lower realized alumina prices. Upstream volumes positively impacted the results by around NOK 900 million. This was largely driven by a normalization of all the NOK sales volumes in Q2, following delayed alumina shipments in Q1 from periods with heavy rain.
Another positive driver in Q2 was lower raw material costs, contributing with approximately NOK 1 billion. The main driver was the lower alumina cost in aluminium metal. Extrusions and recycling results came in relatively flat Q2 versus Q1. In energy, seasonally lower production and lower prices were partly offset by higher gain on price area differences, and the net effect was around negative NOK 300 million. Furthermore, fixed costs remained relatively stable compared to Q1. Currency effects negatively impacted results by around NOK 1 billion, and the total impact was split approximately 60-40 between aluminium metal and bauxite and alumina, partly driven by stronger NOK compared to US dollar. The final positive contribution of NOK 1.4 billion was driven by NOK 1.7 billion in realization of previously eliminated internal profit. This was partly offset by somewhat lower CO2 compensation and net other elements.
This concludes the adjusted EBITDA development from NOK 9.5 billion in Q1 to NOK 7.8 billion in Q2. If we then move to the key financials for the quarter. Comparing Year-over-Year, revenue increased by around 4% to NOK 53 billion for Q2. Compared with Q1, revenue decreased by around 7%. For Q2, around NOK 900 million negative effects were adjusted out of EBITDA. The largest items were net unrealized derivative effects of around negative NOK 480 million, mainly related to LME contracts. Also, impairment charges on equity-accounted investments of around NOK 390 million, due to increased return requirements after assessing risk of energy investments in Brazil. This results in an adjusted EBITDA of NOK 7.8 billion. Depreciations were around NOK 2.5 billion in Q2, resulting in adjusted EBIT of NOK 5.4 billion. Net financial income for Q2 totaled at around negative NOK 800 million.
This was largely driven by an unrealized currency loss of around NOK 500 million, mainly reflecting a weaker NOK versus euro affecting embedded euro currency exposures in energy contracts and other euro liabilities. This was partly offset by a stronger BRL versus U.S. dollar, positively impacting U.S. dollar borrowing in our Brazilian entities. These losses were further increased by net interest and other finance expense amounting to around negative NOK 300 million. Furthermore, we have an income tax expense amounting to NOK 1.1 billion for Q2. The quarter was mainly impacted by high power surtax. Overall, this provides a positive net income of around NOK 2.5 billion. Foreign exchange losses of approximately NOK 500 million are adjusted for, together with the negative EBITDA adjustments mentioned earlier, and partly offset by negative income tax of around NOK 300 million, resulting in an adjusted net income of NOK 3.6 billion in Q2.
Adjusted net income is up from NOK 1.7 billion in the same quarter last year and down from NOK 4 billion in Q1. Consequently, adjusted EPS was NOK 1.68 per share. Let's give an overview per business area, starting with bauxite and alumina. Adjusted EBITDA for bauxite and alumina decreased from NOK 1.6 billion in Q2 2024 to NOK 1.5 billion in Q2 2025. This was mainly driven by higher raw material costs and fixed costs and lower alumina prices, partly offset by currency effects and positive Year-on-Year effects from fuel switch to natural gas being fully implemented. Compared to Q1 2025, the adjusted EBITDA decreased from NOK 5.1 billion to NOK 1.5 billion in Q2 2025, mainly driven by lower alumina price, partly offset by increasing sales volumes.
Raw material cost was relatively stable Q2 versus Q1, and fixed costs increased by around NOK 200 million, in the lower end of the guiding we provided in our Q1 presentation. For Q3, we expect a production volume at name plate capacity. Compared to Q2, we expect higher bauxite costs in the range of NOK 50-100 million, driven by changed bauxite mix due to maintenance at Pål Gomilas. Raw material prices are expected to be relatively stable based on current market prices. Lastly, fixed and other costs are expected to be relatively stable. Moving to aluminium metal, adjusted EBITDA decreased from NOK 2.5 billion in Q2 2024 to NOK 2.4 billion this quarter. The main driver Year-on-Year were higher alumina costs, lower sales volumes, and negative currency effects, partly offset by higher all-in metal prices and lower energy costs.
Compared to Q1 2025, adjusted EBITDA for aluminium metal decreased from NOK 2.5 billion, driven by lower all-in metal prices and negative currency effects, partly offset by lower alumina costs. The raw material cost decreased by around NOK 800 million, which was less than our guiding for Q2 given that Q1 reporting. Reduction was mainly driven by a lower alumina price, partly offset by higher carbon costs and reversal of extra CO2 compensation received in Q1. Increase in fixed cost was slightly below our guidance at around NOK 40 million. This brings me over to the guiding for the next quarter. For Q3, aluminium metal has booked 67% of the primary production at $2,482 per ton. This includes the effect of our strategic hedging program. Premiums in Europe have continued to soften into Q3, and we have booked 58% of the premiums affecting Q3 at $392 per ton.
We expect realized premiums in the range of $330-$380 per ton. On the positive side, we expect a net decrease in raw material costs of between NOK 1 billion and NOK 1.2 billion, mainly driven by lower alumina price. This number includes the effect of our internal alumina hedge with BNA. We expect seasonally lower fixed costs between NOK 50 million and NOK 100 million, and sales volumes are expected to remain stable. Adjusted EBITDA for metal markets decreased in Q2 from NOK 309 million in Q2 last year to NOK 276 million due to exceptionally high results from sourcing and trading activities in Q2 last year. Those were partly offset by increased results from recyclers. Excluding the currency and inventory valuation effect, the results for Q2 were NOK 308 million, down from NOK 357 million in Q2 2024.
Compared to Q1, adjusted EBITDA for metal markets increased from negative NOK 14 million, thanks to increased results from recyclers and from sourcing and trading activities. Recycling results ended higher at NOK 136 million, up from NOK 63 million last quarter. The increase was mainly due to improved margins and volumes in Europe, while scrap prices remained stable. Higher production in the U.S. also contributed to the positive development. For Q3, we expect lower recycling results driven by seasonally lower recycling volumes. In our commercial segment, we anticipate a lower contribution from sourcing and trading activities in Q3, partly offset by positive currency effects. As always, we emphasize the inherent volatility of trading and currency fluctuations. Given the speed into the year, we have adjusted the guidance for the commercial adjusted EBITDA, excluding currency and inventory valuation effects, for the full year 2025 to NOK 300 million-NOK 500 million.
In extrusions, the adjusted EBITDA decreased year-over-year from NOK 1.4 billion to NOK 1.3 billion, driven by lower sales margins, partly offset by higher sales volumes and lower fixed costs. We saw 1% higher sales volumes, as well as somewhat weakened sales margins, primarily in Europe. Furthermore, lower recycling margins negatively impacted the results with around NOK 200 million as recycling margins continued to be under pressure, with scrap shortages leading to elevated prices. Compared to Q1 2025, adjusted EBITDA for extrusions increased from NOK 1.2 billion, thanks to seasonally higher sales volumes and lower fixed costs, partly offset by lower sales margins. Looking into Q3, as always, we should look towards the same quarter last year to capture the seasonal developments in extrusions. External market estimates suggest positive volume development year-over-year of 1% for Europe and a negative development of 1% for North America.
In Q2, we outperformed market expectations, and we anticipate this positive trend to continue into the next quarter, with sales volumes expected to exceed market forecast in both Europe and North America. We also expect a positive metal effect of approximately NOK 200 million-NOK 300 million in the Midwest premium if the Midwest premium stays elevated. However, we also foresee continued pressure in both extrusions margins and recycling margins, which is expected to be partly offset by decreased fixed costs. Despite pressured margins slightly offsetting the higher expected volumes, we expect for the positive to more than offset the negative in Q3 when comparing year-over-year. Moving then to the final business area, energy. The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 increased from NOK 1.1 billion compared to NOK 611 million in Q2 2024.
Higher net spot sales led to higher results Year-on-Year, driven by higher prices, higher production, and higher price area gains. Compared to Q1, adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly from NOK 1.2 billion, mainly due to lower production and prices, offset by higher price area gain and commercial results. The price area gain was NOK 350 million in Q2, an increase from Q1, driven by higher price differences and volumes. Looking into Q3, as always, we should be aware of the inherent price and volume uncertainty in energy. For the next quarter, production volumes and prices are expected to decrease, mainly due to seasonally lower consumption. Furthermore, price area differences could stay at a similar level as in Q2. Next, let's move to the final financial slide this quarter. Net debt decreased by NOK 400 million since Q1.
Based on the starting point of NOK 15 billion in net debt from Q4, we have a positive contribution in adjusted EBITDA of NOK 7.8 billion. During Q2, we saw a net operating capital release of NOK 2.9 billion, mainly driven by reduced receivables, which includes the effect from received indirect CO2 compensation, as well as reduced inventories. Under other operating cash flow, we have a negative NOK 2.9 billion impact, mainly driven by settlement of tax payables of NOK 2.7 billion in Norway and Brazil, and a negative NOK 0.8 billion of mark-to-market reversals, partly offset by reclassification of NOK 0.9 billion for CO2 receivables from long-term to short-term receivables. On the investment side, we have a net cash effective investment of NOK 2.7 billion. As a result, we had positive free cash flow of NOK 5 billion in Q2.
Furthermore, we had a total cash outflow of NOK 5.1 billion related to shareholder distributions, of which NOK 4.4 billion relates to the 2024 dividends, and NOK 700 million paid to the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries, related to the conclusion of the 2024-2025 share buyback program. Finally, we have also had the negative other effects of NOK 300 million, and this was mainly driven by negative net FX effects on cash debt and new leases. As we move to the adjustments related to adjusted net debt, hedging collateral has remained unchanged at NOK 1.6 billion since the end of Q1. Furthermore, during Q2, the net positive pension position decreased by NOK 500 million, turning into a net liability position of NOK 100 million. Finally, we have an increase in other liabilities in Q2 of NOK 300 million, mainly driven by increased adjustments for captive portfolio assets.
With those effects taken into account, we end up with an adjusted net debt position at the end of Q2 of NOK 23 billion. With this, I end the financial update and give the word back to Eivind.
Thank you, Torvald. As we conclude today's session, I'd like to summarize our key priorities. At Hydro, safety remains our foremost priority. We are unwavering in our commitment to maintain the highest safety standards and ensure our performance metrics reflect this dedication. In recent years, we have faced increasing global instability, with risks accelerating over the past few months. This unpredictability represents challenges for the world and for our markets. Despite this volatility, we continue to commit to the strategic direction for 2030. The market for our low-carbon products continues to grow, and our climate targets are unchanged as we advance on our decarbonization agenda.
It is encouraging to see that our customers also value these efforts. At Hydro, we do understand that steady operations require constant adaptation. To navigate instability and to ensure our relevance now and in the future, we must balance long-term perspectives with short-term adjustments. The uncertainty and changes in our business landscape underscore the importance of our initiatives to increase efficiency and reduce costs in the short term. As such, we have reduced our CapEx guiding for 2025 with NOK 1.5 billion. The improvement program is progressing well, and we report progress on our cost-cutting initiatives. Extrusions, in particular, has experienced challenges over the past few years and remains focused on profitability and cash flow.
In response to challenging markets, we have launched a project review to review the number of white-collar workers, which is crucial for maintaining structure and setting priorities as we move Hydro forward in the right direction. We are concentrating our efforts on what is important to drive Hydro forward and to ensure that we stay relevant also in the future. As we move ahead, we are committed to our decarbonization strategy, and we will continue to pursue our 2030 ambitions with unwavering determination. Thank you for your attention, and with that, I will turn it back over to you, Martina.
Thank you, Eivind and Trond Olaf. We will then have a Q&A session. Just reminding, if you would like to ask questions, you need to write your questions in the chat, and then I will read your questions to Eivind and Trond Olaf.
We already have a couple of questions in the chat, so let's get started. Starting with the question from Liam on the CapEx, can you elaborate on which project's expansion plans you have cut or delayed in 2025? And also, can we assume a similar cut to 2026 if downstream demand remains weak?
Thanks, Liam.
As you will know, most of the CapEx, or growth CapEx and return-seeking CapEx that we have, is guided towards the recycling as well as the extrusion businesses. So without going into any specific projects, that's also where you should expect then the reduction to come for 2025. For me, it's important to say that this also reflects the flexibility that we have in the capital plans going forward.
When it comes to 2026 guidance, the guidance currently stands at NOK 15 billion, as it has in the past, and we will review that as we go through the second half of this year, how the market develops, and then we will give an update at the investor day towards the tail end of the year.
We have a question from Marcus Pareto. Is the more than 100 FTE reduction within extrusion predominantly blue-collar? And is the potential of 300-350 a mix of white and blue-collar? And is that a part of the white-collar review?
The automation project in extrusions is predominantly around the blue-collar workforce, so it does not have any overlap with the white-collar review that we're currently doing.
We have a question from Amos. Can you give a guidance on your expectations for eliminations in EBITDA into Q3?
We do not have a pure guidance on the elimination for the next quarter, but if you look at the accumulated negative eliminations since we saw the alumina price spike, and if you deduct what we now realize this quarter, roughly NOK 400 million-NOK 500 million is remaining, and we expect quite a lot of that to come in Q3.
We have a question from Matt. You have said IRR of more than 10% needed to deliver projects. Does Thoreta and Carme deliver in the current environment?
Yes, we still believe that these are good projects and good and solid projects, both the Spanish recycler as well as the wire rod investments at Carme. Do remember that the wire rod project at Carme is also backed with a long-term offtake agreement with one of the leading cable producers in Europe, NKT. Still solid projects in our portfolio.
We have a question from Yannis on extrusions. You provided good color for Q3, but if we look at the full year EBITDA range, how are you tracking relative to the guiding range of NOK 3.5 billion-NOK 4.5 billion that was provided at the Q1 results?
We gave this outlook for the extrusion for the full year, and this is still the outlook we have, NOK 3.5 billion to NOK 4.5 billion. I mean, there's still quite a lot of uncertainty going into the second half, really driven by the demand uncertainty and the economic development uncertainty into the second half. This is still the best outlook and guiding we have for the full year.
Another question from Matt. What has changed on your return requirements that drove the impairment in Brazil?
From time to time, we look at the return requirements and cost of capital requirements for the different business areas and different businesses that we have in Hydro. We did this for energy. Needed an update on wind and renewable projects. With the risk situation as we covered, when it comes to grid constraints, when it comes to potential regulatory challenges in Brazil, the conclusion was that we would lift the return requirements somewhat, and thus that leads to the impairment of roughly NOK 400 million, which we booked in the second quarter.
We have a question from Christian. In alumina, prices are declining for Q3, and you are guiding for higher bauxite cost. Do you expect to avoid a loss-making quarter at the current price-cost spread?
I mean, you have to look at the full guiding for the quarter.
I do not think that the realized alumina prices are very different for Q2 versus Q3, if you use the current spot price as an estimate for the full quarter. This bauxite price increase is more a temporary situation due to maintenance at the Paragominas mine.
We have another question from Yannis. On extrusions, you have guided to a positive metal effect of NOK 200-300 million. Is this driven by the difference between billet and standard ingot premium?
This is really driven by the development that we see in the Midwest premium in the U.S. If you then carry a lower-priced inventory when tariffs were 25%, tariffs go up to 50%, you see an increase in standard ingot premiums, which again lifts the value of the inventory that you carry, which will be realized back to the NOK 200-300 million that Trond Olaf mentioned.
Assuming that billet premiums or standard ingot premiums, Midwest premiums, stay where they are, that is what we will realize in the third quarter.
We have a question from Marina. Your revenue from greener products has increased by 50% Year-over-Year. Can you give us some more color on how volumes and premiums have developed?
Yeah, we see positive developments on, in a way, both sides of that equation. Both from a volume perspective, we continue to see growth year to date in 2025 compared to year to date same period 2024. We also continue to see somewhat positive development on premiums per tonne. Again, good development in the market.
I would like to sort of say once more, you know, the fact that we have now sold our first call contract to an OEM in the US is also a sign that the U.S. is following the European market. Although trailing a couple of years, we still see then more positive developments in the U.S. for low-carbon materials.
We have another question from Ephraim. Can you isolate the impact of the higher Midwest premium alone at spot prices on your business?
Ooh, I think the biggest effect we will see in the next quarter is this metal effect we talked about. If you look at our business in the US, it's mostly a pass-through effect of the Midwest premium. You know, we are buying metal scrap and we are buying standard ingot, typically correlated with the Midwest premium.
We are using that metal and producing the products we sell to the customers. It's mainly a pass-through. Where you could get some positive gains is that if scrap prices do not follow Midwest completely, then we can have a positive, a slightly positive additional margin in Hydro. The main effect is that it's a pass-through through the company.
There seems to be no more questions, but just giving it a couple of seconds. I have one hello here, so it might come. An additional question. There we have it. Oh, sorry. Can you, from Bengt, can you explain the reason behind the increase in hedging price for 2026 for aluminium metal to $2,750 per tonne from $2,600 per tonne?
You know, this comes from the strategic hedging program. We do this typically, hedging roughly 25% of the volumes quarterly two years ahead.
The volumes for 2026 are basically hedged one year later than the 2025 volumes, and that explains then the price differences.
We have a question from Andreas. What was the metal effect in extrusions in Q2? Will it be fully taken out after Q3?
In the second quarter, there was a marginal metal effect in extrusions in North America. Most of the metal effect we expect will come in Q3, again assuming that the Midwest premium stays at the level where it is today.
Another question from Yannis on extrusions. There is a significant revision of North America outlook for 2025 from +3% to -2%. Can you provide some color on which end markets drive this revision and by how much can you outperform the market?
When it comes to the revision down, it is really driven by the reduced economic outlook for the second half in the US.
Where we do see lower demand and continued drop in demand is in the transportation segment and also the automotive segment. For the other segments, we actually saw some growth in the last quarter, so mostly should be explained by automotive and transportation. We do not really guide on how much we outperform. At least the starting point is what we saw in Q2 compared to the overall market decline where we had a growth of 1%.
Bengt is revisiting the hedging question from earlier. In the Q1 presentation, the hedging price for 2026 was $2,600. In the deck today, it is $2,750. What explains the change?
We can come back on this, Bengt, and see if there's something missing in the presentation.
We have a question from Amos. Are you seeing any impact on scrap availability in Europe from higher U.S. tariffs?
We continue to see a tight scrap market in Europe, both in terms of what goes to Southeast Asia, but also certain volumes going to the U.S. The third element of that is, of course, the relatively low economic activity in Europe, which leads to less scrap generation. We do continue to see elevated scrap prices, if you like, compared to history and a very tight market.
If I just may add one comment to Bengt's earlier question. Just to remind, when it comes to our hedging program, what we actually do in the hedging program is that we lock in margins in Norwegian kroner for a significant share of the volume. We actually hedge LME prices in NOK, some volumes in euro, and some in U.S. dollar. You will see fluctuations in these numbers depending on the currency development.
At least part of that change you are seeing from Q1 to Q2 is really driven by the stronger NOK versus the U.S. dollar. We will look further into and come back to you.
Liam has a follow-up question on scrap. Any latest thoughts on European policy on scrap?
Thanks, Liam. This is still being discussed, and it is being discussed within several of the GGs in Europe, and they are looking at it. Obviously, they have not made any decisions yet. If not top on their agenda in Brussels, it is certainly something that they are looking at continuously.
There seems to be no more questions. I think we will round it off. Thank you so much for joining us today, and please reach out to us in Investor Relations if you have any further questions. I wish you all a very nice day. Thank you.