Morning, everyone. My name is Jack. I'm the Health and Safety Manager for the hotel. Just a few bits from me before I hand over, and you can start your conference. I'm pleased to report that there are no planned evacuations of the hotel today, which is good news. There's no routine testing planned either. However, if you do hear the fire alarm go off, please make your way out of the hotel via the nearest exit and go to our assembly point, which is to the right-hand side of the hotel in Palace Avenue. My colleagues will be positioned. Please follow their instruction. They're there to assist you. On that note, if I can ask you, where possible, to move any bags to the side of the room so as to not impede the evacuation of any of your colleagues.
If you do fall unwell or suffer or need any medical attention, please ask any RGH team member. One of my colleagues will assist you. Any questions at all for me? Enjoy your day. Thanks a lot.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Hydro's Investor Day 2025. My name is Baard Erik Haugen, and together with my colleagues Martine Rambøl Hagen, Elitsa Bless i, Kirsten Margrethe Hovi, and Camilla Gihle, I am responsible for investor relations in Hydro. We are very happy to see so many of you here in the room with us in London, and also a warm welcome to everyone following on the webcast. The topic for this year's Investor Day is Strategic Discipline: Securing Long-Term Value Creation. This, together with our strategic direction towards 2030, will be the key topic for the day.
Before we begin, I would like to direct your attention to the cautionary note on the screen. This relates to any forward-looking statements, either in the presentation here today or in the published and printed materials. We will start the agenda with a presentation by CEO Eivind Kallevik, who will give his insights and status on Hydro's 2030 strategic direction. Following Eivind, we will hear from EVP of Extrusions, Paul Warton, who will talk about how they are navigating the current market conditions. We will then have a short break before we get the financial update from CFO Trond Olaf Christophersen. After Trond Olaf, we will get a summary from Eivind before we invite Eivind, Paul, and Trond Olaf on stage for a short Q&A session. Please note that the Q&A will only be available for those of you physically in the room when it comes to asking questions.
We will then break for lunch, which will be served right outside in the piano bar. After lunch, for those of you who have signed up, we will have the roundtable in the Lancaster suite just across the hallway. With that, I am very happy to officially get started and to introduce President and CEO Eivind Kallevik.
Thanks, Board Erik, and a warm welcome and good morning also from my side. Before we go into the numbers, I really want to start with what we always start with in Hydro, and that is with people. Our value and the way we create value is really from thousands of colleagues coming into our plants and our operations every day. They often come in in challenging environments, but they do so with professionalism and taking care of each other. For me, the health and safety is not just a priority. It is really the foundation that allows everything to happen for our people, for their families, and for Hydro as a whole. Because when people feel safe, when work is carried out consistently and predictably, that is when an industrial company performs at its best.
Now we see that both total recordables as well as high-risk incidents are at the lowest levels that we've ever realized in our company. Now, the primary objective is, of course, to keep our people safe, but that also has a good impact on our operations because it gives us fewer disruptions, fewer on-plan stoppages, and fewer hours spent on following up incidents. Safety for us is not something that we do out of routine. It is really fundamental to which company we want to be because value creation and our ability to deliver on our strategic agenda hangs together on this topic. Now, if we look at the world around us, we are now closing a year which has been full of unpredictability. In the United States, tariffs and trade tensions have created an unpredictable investment climate with ripple effects across many major markets, including ours, aluminium.
Now, at the same time, climate change continues to be present around us, even if it receives somewhat less attention than what it would have done 12 or 24 months ago. We've really seen another year of extreme weather events, and the physical impacts of this are here, and the policy discussions do continue. Also importantly, and I will come back to this also later, is that our customers' commitment to decarbonizing their value chains and their supply chains also persists despite the political volatility that we see around this topic at the moment. Momentum is still there, even as we are operating against the backdrop of increased geopolitical conflict. The war in Ukraine, now well into its fourth year, and the situation in the Middle East influence energy markets, trade flows, and customer decisions in very real ways.
That is really where our focus is because we cannot control global events, but we can control how we run our operations, how we manage our costs, and how we execute our strategy. Let us have a look at what we have accomplished during 2025. First of all, financial discipline has really been on top of the agenda. I am pleased to report that return on capital employed over the cycle looks again to come above target this year. Our improvement program is running ahead of plan, and by year-end, we expect to have delivered NOK 1.2 billion in improvement, which is double the target that we set out for 2025. The main portion of the strategic workforce reduction is now finalized, and that will result in an annualized saving of roughly NOK 1 billion for the year 2026.
Finally, we have adjusted our CapEx guiding by NOK 1.5 billion, and that really reflects a slower market and the need to adapt the pace of growth to the market realities that we see around us. That is really the backdrop of how we execute our strategic priorities. The direction stays firm, but the pace and the scale really need to reflect the reality of the world that we see around us. In this environment, discipline comes first. On strategy, we've had solid progress across our key priorities. We continue to ramp up and execute on the investments we've decided on in recycling and extrusions. In recycling, we have now reached an installed post-consumer scrap capacity of 860,000 tons, which meets already the lower end of our 2030 target at the end of 2025.
Following a weaker market, the EBITDA targets for 2025, as you will have seen, were not reached. Given that outlook, we have postponed some of the 2030 targets, and that, again, is fully aligned with the logic of our strategy. We will pursue profitable growth opportunities in recycling and extrusions when the time is right. In energy, we have refocused our portfolio, returning our priorities to the core activities within renewable power generation. We have now successfully phased out both Hydro Hagon and the battery initiatives that we had. Just two weeks ago, we made the final investment decision for the Illvatn pumped power project in Norway.
We continue to deliver ahead of plan when it comes to the decarbonization agenda, and we expect to realize roughly a 15% reduction in CO2 this year against a target of 10%, placing us well on track to reach the 30% target in 2030. On the back of these achievements, we continue to shape the market for greener aluminum together with our customers and partners. In April of this year, we entered into a long-term offtake agreement with cable producer NKT, covering an estimated 274,000 tons of Hydro REDUXA volumes through 2033. In the U.S., the introduction of Hydro CIRCAL is now gaining traction. We have delivered the first volumes to a company called Vought Lighting, which is now marketing this in the U.S. We have also established the first supply contracts for Hydro CIRCAL with a U.S. automotive customer.
The exciting point for me in all of this is that despite all the turmoil that we see around us, sales of greener products in 2025 in terms of value will be 50% higher than what we saw year-to-date 2024. If we turn to bauxite alumina for a minute, the overall picture, the way we see this, is one of a balanced market, but there is some concentration risk when you look at it from the bauxite side. We expect alumina demand to continue its steady growth towards 2030, and most of this growth is expected to be met by new capacity in Asia. India is planning roughly 5 million tons of new alumina capacity by 2030. Likewise, we see Indonesia continuing to expand capacity, but the pace there, we believe, is slightly more uncertain.
We also expect China to add some capacity in this period, but overall, on the alumina side, the markets are expected to remain reasonably balanced towards 2030. Where we see more of a concentration risk is really around bauxite. Just around 1/3 of global bauxite is mined in Africa, and of that, roughly 95% is coming out of Guinea. For me, this illustrates an industry-wide risk, as global supply is really diversified when you look at it on paper, but it is also very, very concentrated when you look behind the numbers and the sources of where the bauxite is coming from. In a world of increasing geopolitical unpredictability, disruption in one single region can really disrupt the entire market, pushing prices upwards if that were to happen.
At the same time, the cost curve also shows that marginal refineries are under pressure at the current alumina prices as we see it. Prices now are just below the 80th percentile on the global cost curve, and that really means that high-cost or higher-cost refineries are really struggling to stay profitable, leaving them vulnerable for price hikes following disruptions or raw material cost increases. For aluminium, towards 2030, the fundamentals remain strong. They remain strong across regions and sectors. We continue to see steady growth in semis demand, driven by the same long-term trend that we have seen in the market for years. The energy transition alone is a major driver. We expect global investments in power grids to grow by around 30% between 2025 and 2030. That represents roughly $600 billion of annual investments.
More electrification, more renewables, more transmission lines, all translate directly into higher aluminum intensity and demand. Now, despite EV growth forecasts having come down lately, there's still an expectation that the global fleet of battery electric vehicles is expected to double between 2025 and 2030. EVs require significantly more aluminum than a conventional car, and that, again, will continue to drive the demand increases in automotive as we look forward. Defense and security are also very much back on top of the agenda. NATO has defined aluminum as a critical raw material. In fact, it's defined aluminum as the most critical raw material in eight out of nine defense categories. When countries or NATO members have decided to increase defense spending from 2% to around 5% of GDP by 2035, again, it's a shift that will drive aluminum demand in a positive direction.
Infrastructure is a part of this, but also on its own represents another major source of growth. Europe alone faces an investment backlog that will require more than a doubling of annual governmental spending towards 2040. In buildings, new EU efficiency requirements are expected to push higher use of circular materials and low-carbon materials towards 2030. In HVAC&R, so heat ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration, we see a potential or continued potential for increased copper substitution with an anticipated market share growth of 4% towards 2030. On top of this, there is regulatory support, large public spending programs aimed at competitiveness and security that are currently being rolled out in Europe. As we all know, in Germany alone, they have allocated EUR 500 billion for infrastructure over the next decade.
When we bring all of this together, the outlook for aluminium as a critical raw material for the green transition and for European competitiveness remains strong. On the supply side, we do expect low-carbon aluminum to remain a scarce resource towards 2030. We will see new primary capacity coming into the market over the next couple of years, but that is expected to be largely high-carbon material. Indonesia is rapidly expanding based on coal. China, of course, is shifting some of their capacity into renewable regions. The net effect of this is still that most of the new capacity coming on stream will carry a very high carbon footprint. On the customer side, we see continued persistence when it comes to decarbonizing their supply chains. We see leading companies across sectors, including our strategic partners, Mercedes-Benz, Siemens Mobility, VELUX, and NKT, have all reconfirmed their climate targets.
Many of them also explicitly stated that aluminium is the way to reduce their Scope 3 targets. A demand signal which all supports continued investments in decarbonization. The supply of low-carbon aluminum, on the other hand, is not expected to grow in line with anticipated demand. Aluminium produced below 4 tons of CO2 per ton of aluminium will grow only marginally towards 2030, while production above that threshold will grow with several million tons. In other words, the part of the market where Hydro competes, low-carbon, primary, and recycle, remains limited in supply and with demand growing towards 2030. If we look at 2025 as a whole, it's been a year of significant policy shifts, all pointing in the same direction. What we see is that security of supply is becoming a major concern for governments as well as companies.
In the United States, tariffs are now at historically high levels. While we still have to see the longer-term impacts on economic development and consumer confidence, it is clear that within defense, production will be favored going forward. In Europe, we also see strong political momentum to support industrial competitiveness. We see policies aimed at strengthening critical raw material supply chains, as well as discussions on scrap export limitations, all point towards a regional approach. CBAM, of course, will also be another important element. The export mechanism and discussions on closing remaining loopholes are progressing well. We also see that sanctions are shaping the landscape, with military conflicts and geopolitical tensions limiting sourcing options. One example is, of course, the quota on Russian aluminum entering Europe will be reduced to 50,000 tons February 26, down from 275,000 tons today.
At the same time, we also see supply constraints outside Europe becoming clearer. China's capacity cap is expected to hold, and potential smelter closures around us outside Europe may also affect the material flows into the European continent. In sum, these developments create a more complex environment, but they also increase the value of regional reliable supply chains. That is an area where Hydro holds a strong position. If we turn to CBAM, we are now just a few weeks away from the mechanism to go live. The way we see this, this is already largely priced in by the market, as uncertainty regarding implementation is diminishing and has diminished during the fall. Longer term, CIU expects CBAM to lift European premiums by around 40%.
That aligns pretty well with our own internal analysis and the emerging consensus that we see from our peers in our market. However, it is still crucial that some of the loopholes still need to be closed to ensure the level playing field for domestic producers competing with players outside the EU or outside the EEA. We do expect the Commission to present proposals by the end of this year covering the anti-circumvention measures, an export solution, and updates to the product scope and granularity. For Hydro, there are really two issues that stand out. First of all, the scrap loophole needs to be closed. Without that, there is a clear risk of circumvention and an uneven playing field between European recyclers and competitors outside the EU/EEA.
Secondly, the scope needs to be extended to downstream goods to ensure that we don't get carbon leakage simply by shifting into finished products. Unfortunately, these processes take time, and the earliest realistic inclusion of these elements, as we do expect, is 2028. CBAM, the way we see this, has the potential to level CO2 costs, putting Hydro in a favorable position. Because with fair CO2 pricing at the border, producing low carbon in Europe becomes even more of an advantage. As always, the devil will be in the details, and we are following these developments closely, and the final elements of the mechanism are rolled out from Brussels. We also continue to see large volumes of low-grade and mixed scrap leaving both Europe as well as the United States, and they are primarily flowing into Asia.
China and India now are major net importers, and Asia as a whole imports now close to 3 million tons of scrap from Western markets every year. Europe is now clearly a net exporter to China, India, and the rest of Asia. In the U.S., we see a similar trend, with most low-grade scrap and mixed scrap ending up either in India or in China. If you speak to scrap yards during 2025, they also report that scrap generation is down some 30%-40% during the year. The combination of lower generation and continued exports keeps a tight supply situation for European recyclers and U.S. recyclers, giving us a margin squeeze as we've seen in the financial figures for the year. Fortunately, this dilemma and this challenge is now also acknowledged by policymakers in the U.S. and the European Union.
Just last week, the Commission communicated that their intention is now to introduce either a tariff or another mechanism to address this challenge. Of course, it is something that we will continue to monitor and discuss with the Commission as time goes on. In this challenging landscape, one of Hydro's strongest advantages is to continue to be our integrated value chain. Very few, if any, companies in our industry can match the control and traceability that we have from mine to metal. We produce large amounts of our own renewable power. We mine our own bauxite, refine it into alumina, we make primary metal, we recycle scrap, and we extrude profiles and solutions for our customers. Being present at every stage gives us something that matters more and more to our customers.
Low carbon and recycled aluminum, on the one hand, but we can also give them transparency and traceability from mine to final product, which very few other companies can do. In a world of increasing scrutiny on embedded emissions, value chain responsibility, and environmental performance, providing that assurance creates trust, which translates into value and customer commitments. With that in mind, another layer which is proving its worth is the magnitude of the geographic diversification, which gives us also strategic flexibility. We have high-quality bauxite and alumina production in Brazil. We have smelters in Norway, Qatar, Slovakia, Brazil, Canada, and in Australia. We are one of the largest recycling footprints in Europe and in the United States, and we are the world's largest extruder with operations across all major markets.
In particular, downstream, this footprint allows us to adapt quickly when the market and business environment shifts, whether it is tariff, energy markets, geopolitical disruptions, or changes in demand. It also allows us to capture opportunities when they arise. When one region softens and another strengthens, we can rebalance flows, adjust volumes, and maintain customer supply without overextending the system. Importantly, it gives us resilience. We can take down capacity when needed without losing market presence because the system as a whole can continue to deliver to our customers. When we bring this together, the integrated value chain and the global footprint really translate into a very clear value proposition for our customers. We offer the full range of aluminum products from extrusion ingots, sheet ingots, foundry alloys, to precision parts, alloying systems or alloyed material building systems, and advanced alloys to our customers.
Behind these products stands world-class R&D and close collaboration with customers and partners. We are among the lowest in the world when it comes to carbon intensity. That matters because our customers are tightening their Scope 3 ambitions and because regulators are placing more emphasis on embedded emissions in the products that are to be used in the different regions. Part of our value proposition and part of our differentiation also goes beyond carbon. Our customers also want confidence not only in the carbon footprint, but in the integrity of the value chain and the transparency of the entire value chain which we can offer. On that note, let me turn briefly to the business areas where the words and the strategy that we deliver are converted into action day by day.
That is really the reason why we are delivering all the proof points that we do. If we start with bauxite and alumina, we operate an integrated world-scale and long-term long-life assets in Brazil, supported by renewable and competitive energy supply, giving us very much a strong first quartile cost position for the activities in Brazil. These assets are really the foundation and the starting point of the low-carbon position that we have in the value chain. In energy, the Hydro Power assets that we own remain a strategic strength for us. They are reservoir-based, located in high-value power markets, providing Hydro with predictable renewable power for our smelter system as well as for B&A. We also have attractive growth options in the existing portfolio and in our joint venture with Hydro Reine.
We have a centralized commercial organization that ensures that we optimize our power portfolio and secure sourcing needs for the entire system in Hydro. In aluminum metal, our primary smelters operate with competitive cost positions and access to this renewable power. That gives us a leading low-carbon and recycled products area that offers further creep potential in markets where metal is in structural deficit. We continue to see good opportunities in this area for further investments, supported by the strategic partnerships that we've entered into in high-growth segments. Finally, in extrusions, Hydro Extrusions is the world leader in its field, delivering fast lead times, complex and certified profiles, and solutions to tailor-made customer needs. This business really combines technology leadership with modular investments that offer short payback and high returns. It remains a strong performer relative to its peers and a key part of our low-carbon offering.
Across all our business areas, we do have competitive assets. We have leading technology. We have a strong sustainability position and a portfolio that enables us to execute decisively on the strategy. That is really the basis when we look at the strategic positioning that we have towards 2030. Using these competitive advantages to position Hydro as the uncontested leader in what we continue to see as a high-promise market for low-carbon aluminum solutions towards 2030 and beyond. Despite headwinds in the macro environment and volatility in the short term, we still firmly believe in the prospects for our material and Hydro's ability to differentiate early. That will give us the opportunity to capture market share as the world moves in a greener direction. Our direction stays firm, but we will adapt the pace and the scope of execution to market realities.
We will continue to drive profitable growth both in recycle and in extrusions. That we will do to support the competitiveness and the low-carbon position. We will also scale the renewable power generation. We will continue to execute on our decarbonization and technology roadmap and also contribute to nature positive as well as a just transition in the areas where we operate. Finally, we will intensify our efforts to shape the market for low-carbon aluminum through strategic partnerships and long-term commercial agreements for offtake. Going forward, these will be key to support the continued investments in decarbonization when we do it. Let's then take a look at how we're doing and what adjustments we will make to reflect the realities in the market. There is no doubt that the extrusion market has taken a bit of a hit over the last two years.
Yesterday, we did communicate decisive actions to consolidate our European operations as a result of this. Paul will walk you through more of the details on this project later on today. The reality that we face is that demand has been softer than what we expected. Recycling margins have been under pressure, and we have seen cost inflation in several parts of the system. That has been clearly visible in the numbers. That is really why we have refocused our project pipeline towards productivity, automation, and cost discipline. We will continue with press upgrades, automation initiatives, and targeted capability investments, which will give us a clear line of sight for improved performance. These measures will strengthen our competitiveness. They will reduce FTE costs. They will improve ergonomics. They will improve safety in non-commoditized markets as the markets pick up.
While near-term earnings are not where we want them to be, the underlying levers for return to good profitability are there. The commercial program, the improvement program, the commercial uplift, and the growth projects together give us a solid pathway back to healthy margins as we travel towards 2030. If we turn to recycling, where profitability has also been challenged in the short term, margins are still weak in Europe, while in the U.S. at the moment, they are pretty healthy, largely due to lower scrap prices compared to the premiums that we sell our products for. In any case, the principle remains the same. We focus on the levers that we control. Improvements have to be a constant focus. The Alumetal integration is starting to yield results.
We expect to deliver EUR 9 million of the synergies, of the 10-15 synergy potential, as we have identified when we did the acquisition already in 2025. In addition, we are delivering hot metal cost improvements, as we've talked about before, of roughly $5 per ton across the entire portfolio. Also here, we are continuing our portfolio optimization, right-sizing underperforming plants, and increasing utilization of the top performing assets. In the U.S., our newest recycler, Inconso, is continuing its ramp-up journey towards the final capacity of 120,000 tons, and we expect to be at the 90% speed out of 2026 for that ramp-up. Likewise, at Kursona, the largest and most profitable extrusion plant we have, we are currently increasing PCS capacity by some 30,000 tons annually, with ramp-up continuing during 2026.
Supporting this, continued investments in sorting technology enables us to dive deeper into the scrap pile, utilizing more complex scrap types. In the U.S., the PADNOS Strand venture is up and running, and it runs well. We are also ramping up our investments in Poland in the NovoSOL High Sort sorting line. Finally, with existing capacity and improved growth projects that we have already reached the lower end of the 2030 target of 850,000-1,000,000 tons of PCS capacity across the portfolio. With that backdrop, let's look at how this translates into earnings and an updated ambition level for our recycling operations. These recycling targets are then fully aligned with the requested or adjusted capital allocation. The revised ambitions reflect capital discipline and the assumption that market dynamics, particularly in Europe, will normalize over time.
Now, if we start on the left, the past 12 months delivered an EBITDA of NOK 0.7 billion, NOK 700 million. That really reflects the weak downstream environment that we've just walked through. At the same time, there are some bright spots in this. If we update the last 12 months' results using current spot prices, we see US profitability coming in stronger than what we would assume for a normalized market, while Europe still remains a significant recovery need to return to normal margins. It is, of course, important to note that spot sensitivities cannot be taken as a guiding for 2026 because scrap prices are volatile. There are some volumes that are locked into longer-term contracts that do not reflect the current scrap prices, but it nevertheless gives an indication as to where we are. From there, the adjusted roadmap shows the pathway back to a normalized run rate.
Installed capacity, improvement initiatives, and the approved creep and growth projects bring us to confirmed EBITDA potential of around EUR 5 billion in 2030. That combined with lower CapEx in the near term, we have adjusted the range from EUR 5 billion-EUR 8 billion to EUR 5 billion-EUR 6 billion. If we turn to energy and have a look at the operational and commercial improvements, we are now delivering a combined uplift of roughly EUR 550 million. Of that, EUR 350 million come from operational improvements and roughly EUR 200 million from commercial improvements. Most of this is then enabled by the phase-out of our batteries and hydrogen business units, which has allowed us to sharpen our focus on core activities that we have within renewable energy. Just weeks ago, we approved Hydro's largest hydropower investment in more than two decades, the Illvatn Pump Storage Project in Luster, Norway.
It's an EUR 2.5 billion investment, adding 48 MW of capacity and delivering 107 GW hours of renewable power annually. Construction is commencing as we speak, and we will have targeted completion by 2030. It is also important to note that through Norway's cash flow scheme for hydropower investments, the net investment after tax across the portfolio is estimated to EUR 1.2 billion. Thirdly, on Hydro Rein, it remains a growth vehicle for us, which potentially then will be able to source attractive renewable power to our Norwegian assets. Together with Mercury Asset Management, we have a strong alignment on our core objectives and structure that will enable value creation for both parties over time. To adapt to the rapidly changing market, Reine has also commenced a downsizing process, aiming to right-size the organization and continue its path towards profitable growth.
The key focus areas remain the same: strengthening their presence in the Nordics while maintaining a solid sourcing and production profile in Brazil, the two key regions for Hydro's long-term energy needs. Speaking about energy needs, energy, of course, remains one of the strongest drivers for competitiveness within aluminum. Hydro strengthened its long-term power portfolio this year by advancing several key renewable power agreements, including new long-term agreements with Hofslund and NTE, totaling around 4.16 TWh. In parallel, our joint venture, smelter Alouette in Canada, has now reached an agreement in principle with the government of Quebec and Hydro-Quebec to secure more renewable power for the 2030 to 2045 period, again providing Alouette with stable and competitive energy in a tightening market.
At our joint venture, Tomago in Australia, the owners have now started a consultation process on the future of the smelter after failing to find an economically viable energy solution, again highlighting the importance of competitively long-term power contracts. Since 2020, we have signed more than or around 20 PPAs across hydropower and wind power, different risk profiles, different durations, including medium-term PPAs. These agreements then support the smelter system with long-term renewable power, strengthening our position as an attractive counterpart in the PPA market. Altogether, this is an active, disciplined sourcing agenda that we have designed to secure renewable power at competitive prices. As mentioned in the beginning, we have strong execution on the decarbonization roadmap also this year. By the end of 2025, we expect to surpass the 2025 target by around 5 percentage points.
Again, that puts us well on track to meet the 2030 target of 30%. Several milestones are already behind us. Fuel switch of Alunorte is completed and is fully ramped up. We've installed three electrical boilers, and we are assessing the potential for an additional four boilers to be installed in addition to converting some of the coal usage we have to biomass by 2030. When completed, and if completed, and if we find the market business cases for it, Alunorte will have reduced its CO2 footprint by 70%, 7-0. Across the value chain, we are pushing both large and small opportunities, always balancing the cost and the effect. Now, when we look forward, also some of the more complicated tons of CO2 remain. This is where our efforts shift more towards long-term technology changes.
We are continuing to work with carbon capture to preserve the value of our existing smelters. HALUL Zero is the solution for future greenfields. In just a couple of weeks, we will commence operations at our stage 2 facility in Porsgrunn, the technology center for this development. That, of course, follows the successful lab tests we had a couple of years ago. As we speak, we are starting the planning and the engineering for the next phase of an industrial pilot, which is set to start operation and construction around 2030. Decarbonization of the casting operations, we are also exploring several pilot scale technologies. At Sunndal, we are testing and using biomethane for casting and direct electrification plasma technology for emission-free remelting will also be tested in 2026, also at Sunndal. At Høyanger, the green hydrogen pilot will be ready for operation in the second quarter of 2026.
Seen from our perspective, there is not one single silver bullet. We have to pursue different technologies that will give us the optionality to apply it where it's best suited from a cost perspective and from a technology perspective, site by site. Let me then briefly turn to nature. A screener is a lot more than just low carbon. At Hydro Paragominas, we are strengthening our long-term nature strategy with a clear ambition to reach no net loss of biodiversity over the lifetime of the mine. We have now completed a preliminary baseline, and that really gives us a solid overview of the different habitat types and their condition. It allows us to understand what it will require to reach the no net loss status at mine closure. The baseline will be refined over the coming years as we integrate new field data and additional biodiversity studies.
To ensure quality and credibility, we do, of course, work also closely with external research institutions to review and to improve the restoration practices that we have. That includes assessing positive effects from areas already under rehabilitation, where we see strong indications that recovery is moving in the right direction. Today, we have more than 3,400 hectares under rehabilitation. More than 400 species of fauna have been identified now in these areas as the mine continues to deliver also its one-to-one rehabilitation within two hydrological cycles for all available mined areas. The direction for us is clear: a disciplined, science-based approach to nature aligned with international standards and embedded long-term partnerships with the communities around us. Our social impact agenda is also, of course, an ambition. The ambition is to improve the lives and the livelihoods where we do operate.
We structure this around the Just Transition Framework with three key priorities: leave no one behind, strengthen local communities, and build skills for the future. First of all, you need to ensure that all the fundamentals are in place. That, of course, includes mandatory human rights due diligence across all our operations and value chain in line with OECD and UN standards, as well as a strong focus on health and safety training in all the projects that we do. Above these three requirements, we run a broad portfolio of local initiatives. Today, it's more than 150 ongoing projects. One of the recent examples that we have is the new partnerships with Red Cross Norway, combining financial support with employee volunteering for the work that they do. We also contribute to long-term community development where our presence is significant.
Last year, we launched what we call the Corridor Program in Pará, a co-designed initiative with local communities focused on economic and social development alongside biodiversity conservation. Also notably and importantly, this is the first time we see customers showing interest in engaging directly in development efforts linked to their supply chain. Across all of this, the direction is still the same: a responsible, community-anchored, long-term approach to social impact that supports both our operations and a just transition in the regions where we operate. As I mentioned, we continue to see a strong demand in the market for our low-carbon products. Sales of Hydro CIRCAL and Hydro REDUXA are, from a value perspective, up more than 50% year -to- date, despite the weaker markets that we see overall in Europe and in North America. That really tells us two things.
One, the commercial teams that we have are executing well, and structural demand for certified low carbon remains strong. For 2025, we expect Hydro CIRCAL sales to reach some 58,000 tons and Hydro REDUXA to increase to 461,000 tons. These are important proof points as we progress towards the EUR 2 billion green earnings uplift potential or ambition that we've set to 2030. To position ourselves for future growth, we are also investing in new capacity, including the new Wire Rod Karmøy at Karmøy, supporting a long-term offtake agreement with NKT of EUR 1 billion. CIRCAL is gaining traction in the US with the first automotive project secured earlier this year. This year, we also launched a CIRCAL-based foundry alloy from Alumetal, expanding the recycle content offering to the European automotive segment.
We continue to move where the market is moving, developing the capacity and the capabilities to serve a growing market for low carbon and recycled materials. The success factors for us are quite clear: increasing volumes, strong customer engagement, and with a portfolio that is increasingly differentiated well above low carbon by itself. The last years, we have worked deliberately to identify, develop, and deepen the partnerships with the most ambitious players in our customer base. That helps us create a real market for greener aluminium, and that does not happen by itself. It requires customers who move early, commit commercially, and co-develop their solutions with us. It started with Velux, one of the first to join us on the partnership on low carbon and circular materials. In 2023, we entered our part into our partnership with Mercedes-Benz.
The following year, we delivered the first batches of REDUXA 3.0 using some post-consumer scrap developed through close technical collaboration between our teams. Since then, we have expanded the model. With Porsche, we have an industry-first offtake agreement, including capacity reservations and green premium structures, a methodology that really supports predictable demand, and we continue to work together on this joint roadmap. With Brompton Bikes, which everybody in London should know what it is, CIRCAL-based wheel rims are now rolling off the line, and that's CIRCAL 100R based on 100% post-consumer scrap. With Volvo Group, we partnered with one of the most ambitious players in heavy transport, a milestone in a sector where aluminium demand will continue to grow. We also broaden our reach beyond automotive and construction, engaging more actively in public infrastructure.
Together with Siemens Mobility, we are developing a closed-loop solution that turns aluminium from decommissioned trains into new high-speed rail in Germany. In power transmission, the partnership with NKT is important. A long-term REDUXA offtake agreement will be supplied from the new Karmøy casthouse for major cable projects across Europe: 274,000 tons of aluminium. These partnerships demonstrate the proven model: focused customers, deep technical collaboration, and long-term commercial commitments that create a real market for low carbon and recycled aluminium. As we advance on the decarbonization roadmap, future investments will increasingly depend on concrete offtake agreements like these, providing certainty for Hydro and for our customers' transition plans. With that, I will leave the stage for Paul Warton to take us through some more of the details on extrusions.
Far up in northern Norway, surrounded by scenic mountains, water reservoirs, and a fjord, there is a groundbreaking plant. It's where our partner Hydro produces low carbon aluminium for our vehicles using its own hydropower from the mountains. For us, it means a massive reduction of the CO2 footprint of the aluminium value chain.
Following our heritage at Mercedes-Benz, we are pioneers, and we are also pioneers when it comes to sustainability. Just to give an example, on this beautiful car, we have reduced the CO2 footprint of the aluminium by 70% compared to the European average.
It's made with at least 25% recycled scrap.
My dedicated team and I are working each day on new solutions, bringing sustainability through innovations on the road. That's absolutely a roadmap to our ambition 2039 and a step towards a more sustainable future. Hard to come. Very good.
Thank you, Ivan. Good to see some of my customers up there on the screen. Now it's my turn to put some flesh on the bones with Hydro Extrusions and how we fit in and how we've navigated these extremely challenging markets across the globe, it's fair to say. More of that later. I don't want to lose sight of the fact it's been tough for three years now, but we still see opportunities for our business globally to follow strong markets, strong customers as they develop their business. As usual in Hydro, we talk about safety first. Here, this is Hydro Extrusions, safety performance. You saw the group numbers there from Ivan. Here, Hydro Extrusions with our 20,000 employees across the globe. In many plants, in many countries, we've contributed to this improvement.
On recordable cases there, you see that's improved some 40% on the 12-month rolling average. On the high-risk incidents, these are often injury-free. These are incidents in a plant. That's improved some 80%. Of course, there's the other metrics. That's safety, environment, protecting our people, protecting our business. One example there is waste to landfill. Target is zero, of course, but you see we make some good improvement trends there. Of course, we've got many other environmental metrics. We've got wastewater, we've got energy efficiency, and these are all trending in a good direction. As Ivan said, this is, of course, about safety of our people and the predictable performance of our plants. There's also many benefits. You manage safety in your business, you manage efficiency, productivity, compliance, quality. Everything comes from this basic fundamental discipline.
I'm very pleased with the team's performance in this area. Now, our challenging headwinds in the market. If I think back to what we talked about one year ago, you're very aware of these oscillations in especially our Extrusions Europe and Extrusions North America market. This is severe movements of demand up and down. If you remember the numbers in the middle, we talked about forecast for the market 2025, 3% in Europe and 5% in the US. You see where we are today with what we see today, far, far away from those projections. The good news is we've managed those headwinds in the way we run our business, the way we manage our costs, the way we work with our customers, and the way we protect our margin. That's very important going forward.
Markets are tough, but you still have to maintain your margins and your profitability. Of course, we take actions on our capital expenditure. We have to be a cash-positive business even in these tough times. It's been a challenge. Overall, I'm happy with the performance, and I don't lose sleep over the markets. They will come back for sure in Europe and North America and the rest of the world. Of course, in Europe, we're now three years into this very tough environment in Europe. Three years, 36 months. That's the longest slowdown in extrusions we've ever seen, or certainly I've ever seen. If you look back, COVID was like 10 months of downturn, then recovery. You look back to 2009, this was maybe 12 or 14 months, 36 months of a downturn. We're still in that downturn today in Q4.
Of course, our utilizations go down in our business, in our plants, on our extrusion presses and on our cast houses. There is the additional margin pressure from what was described earlier about scrap outflows from Europe. Scrap has become expensive even in the soft market in Europe. The pressure on the billet premiums through our recycling business has not been enough to make a decent return in our recycling businesses. We have to cut the cloth. This is a big decision. This, of course, is a very sad decision to have to make, but necessary. Our utilization is too low. The profitability is too low. These plants here, these are loss-making plants on extrusions. This tough action, sadly, was necessary, announced yesterday, and the consultation process, of course, begins with our representatives to find a solution and then hopefully come to this conclusion.
We will lose five plants. We will lose eight presses and cast house capacity in three locations. Necessary actions. This, of course, will affect, subject to the conclusion of the consultation, 730 FTE positions. This is quite an adjustment in the European landscape. This is tough. What does it mean for us in terms of getting through this process, in terms of lost capacity in extrusions and recycling? There you see the numbers: 11% reduction in extrusions and more like a 29% reduction in cast house capacity. This is significant, but you should not worry about does that impact our ability to take advantage when markets turn. We still have enough installed capacity in our business in Europe through the cast houses to extrusions to follow the demand as it improves. What is the benefit of this?
The financial benefit is the run rate improvements there of some EUR 45 million a year. We will exit 2006 at a run rate that's delivering those numbers. That is in there for full year 2027. Of course, there's CapEx avoidance involved as well. The money we invest in this restructuring, the payback is good, the IRR is good, and it's what we need to do to adjust our capacity in our market. That is the action on Europe. If I then look at the global picture for us on extrusions and also still convince you that this is a good market to be in, you look at the numbers in the middle there. These are substantially down from one year ago, but still 3.8% and 3.1% growth in our core markets, Europe, North America. This is quite respectable growth rates to work on.
Of course, we're working on subsegments within those markets to ensure we're capturing even upside opportunities in those markets. You see the curves move to the right, unfortunately, third year running. The biggest impact in terms of our markets is the BEV slowdown in Europe, but especially in North America. We're still selling battery electric vehicles, and we're on these platforms in Europe and North America. Yes, it's less than we thought, but this is still good business for aluminium extrusions and aluminium generally. What does it mean in Europe? This reduction means only 40% of vehicles in Europe will be BEV in 2030. It was 50%. In North America, it's something like it was 40%. It's now going to be 19%. Yes, it's down, but the trend is still coming. Peak ICE was achieved eight years ago.
It's a slower trend than we would like to see with the aluminium intensity on these vehicles, but the trend is coming, and it's an irreversible trend. It's even coming in North America with everything you hear and see in North America. One of the reasons for the downturn, of course, has been the incentives. A lot of the incentives disappeared in Europe with some of the member states. These are slowly coming back. My own country, U.K., I've heard recently there's incentives now. You buy a BEV, you get some GBP 3,700 discount on the vehicle. In Germany now, with the money that's made available in Germany, there's also a scheme to give similar like 10% reduction savings on BEVs in Germany. I think the regulators are seeing they need still to incentivize this transition. The transition will come.
It is a little bit dependent on some of the incentives that go with it, but it's still coming. This is good for our extrusion business. There are many of our products in these markets. Overall, looking at the different segments we operate in, we share here where we are as Hydro Extrusions globally with where the markets are. This really illustrates we are very well represented in the markets that will go in extrusions, in fabricated components for extrusions. The big adjustment there is North America automotive. That number you see, 2%-3% last year, that was something like 9%. That is a big adjustment in Europe, in North America. This we deal with. Yes, it's less than we were expecting, but do not forget when we invest to make parts for our OEM customers, this is modular investment.
We only invest enough corresponding to the business that we do in those markets. We are still deploying that action on modular investments to support these markets. There are other ones there like commercial transport. This is very soft in North America, and that is an important market for us where we have a big share and a growing share in North America. Of course, with tariffs, nobody wants to be the person buying Midwest transaction premium and then being stuck with the stock, the inventory, the products even when there is an adjustment. Still, people believe there will be an adjustment. It is hard to predict when, where, why. Maybe it will never come, but there is still a belief it will come. Everyone is super, super tough on purchasing aluminium extrusions.
The supply chain from consumers to us is absolutely empty, especially as we go into a financial year-end close. CT, you have to eventually replace truck trailers. They are running on extended leases now. They are, of course, challenged on maintaining, repairing. The time will come they need to be replaced. Just to give you an idea on a trailer, we visited a customer with the board of directors only a few months ago. Trailers are selling for, let's say, $1,500. At Midwest transaction premium, this is maybe another $300-$400 premium on top of that. When our customers order trailers, they order 100, 50, 200. This is a big delta for them to be nervous that I do not want to be the one over-procuring when there is suddenly an adjustment on the tariffs in the U.S. This is stressing the supply chain.
Everyone's on short lead time, so this is manageable. It does mean when these markets turn, there will initially be restocking of the supply chain as well as the consumption coming at the end. This will recover, but it's a bit tough at the moment. Where we're less represented is in B and C. This is important for us, and this is extrusions to B and C customers. This is not our Hydro Building Systems company. That's a different story. B and C does tend to be more the commodity end of the business, and there we do less. Hydro Extrusions is very well positioned globally to capitalize on these opportunities when the markets recover. We talk a lot about automotive, and that's one that since I've been here, we've really invested a lot of time, effort, money in developing our position in this market.
Previously, I have talked about the nominations where we get awarded lifetime contracts with OEMs. We have shifted the business very much away from being a tier two or tier one supplier to being an OEM supplier and an OEM supplier of the components, the likes of which you see on the right-hand side here. These are finished complex components that are heavy in BEVs, but also in hybrids or ICEs. This is where we have committed some capital and we have projects, and now these are coming to the market. You see we have shaded the green bar chart there to show what has been up and running in production. It is only a small percentage of these nominations that we have been given because it takes a couple of years before you are in serial production on these SOP automotive parts.
As we go up there in 2026, some of the launches in 2025 were delayed. They are coming in 2026. This business is coming. Some of it is less than what we anticipated, but like I say, we do modular CapEx to fit the demand as it comes. It is slower than we would like, but it is coming for sure. We still quote on a lot of new business now for similar components with OEMs globally. That is why I put the point in the middle there. It has become more relevant that we are a global player in OEM automotive components. We now develop with even Chinese OEMs in China, where some of the OEMs in the West do partnerships now, develop business in China, and even ship components from China into plants in Europe. We do that.
One example is Leapmotor, which is JV with Stellantis. We will develop a program. We are nominating on a program in China. We will supply in China. The complete unit will come to Europe and be built into cars in Spain. Eventually, especially if the European Commission wakes up and insists on local content to get a discount or a subsidy on a BEV sale in Europe, that is the way it should work. We transfer the business that we have developed in China into our plants in Europe and supply often the same Chinese OEMs now operating construction plants in Europe. That is very important. We now get nominations with OEMs, and these are global nominations in three continents producing the same part. You see the way they manage their build depending on geopolitics or tariffs or customers.
We're able, we're one of the only companies that can follow that trend. This is slower, but it's still good. Moving on to some of our smaller business units within Hydro Extrusions. This is the precision tubing and also the Hydro Building System. Starting with precision tubing, this is the BU that's involved in the copper substitution in HVAC&R, and also copper substitution in high voltage cables for BEVs. This trend continues. In fact, it accelerates because, of course, the delta now between copper prices and aluminium prices is far, far above the 3.5 ratio. We have a lot of opportunities, especially in North America, where these copper substitutions are coming. Once it's done, it's done. It's not going to go back to copper. These HVAC&R customers are changing lines.
It's quite a tough process for them to go through as well, as well as us supplying them. Once they change, they change. Now we've got HVAC&R customers in North America that are planning to change all their lines from copper to aluminium substitution. This is a good growth rate, double digit, but then the aluminium penetration to copper within that growing market is also good for us in precision tubing. There is the Hydro Building Systems operation. Some of you joined us in Toulouse recently to have a good look around the core plant in Europe for Hydro Building Systems. They have the same headwinds in Europe, but it's a global offer. We're very present in the Middle East with a strong reputation and history there for many decades.
This business, and if you visit the Middle East recently, this business in the Middle East is really booming. This is good for our business. We've not just followed the trend, but we've grown our market share in Hydro Building Systems Middle East. I was there only this week, a couple of days in Dubai. We're nominating a lot of the iconic projects, the one you see there, very flash building by Binghatti Developers. That's the Bugatti Residences in the Middle East. It's all pretty much sold out. It's being built at the moment. It's about halfway built. Hydro Building Systems, they are the nominated supplier on that, as well as many other huge projects in the Middle East. It seems that that momentum is there to continue. Well done, Hydro Building Systems, for growing their business in that environment.
The other one is Europe at the moment, but this is the wall-to-wall recycling that we've talked about before. This is where the construction products regulations in Europe on renovation are demanding lower carbon products as they replace windows, doors, facades, buildings. Here we take away end-of-life windows. We do the recycling of, we do the aluminium recycling, but also the glass and the gaskets. It's also recycled, and the clients are demanding this high-recycled content, CIRCAL 100R or 50R, various recycled content delivery to come back with low carbon onto the project. Here we do the wall-to-wall. We take the aluminium, comes back into our system. We cast, we extrude, we send the systems back for the client. This is increasing in Europe. I also like this because this keeps scrap in Europe because we take control of the end-of-life aluminium.
That is in the market. Like I say, there are plenty of reasons. It is tough at the moment, but there are plenty of areas where this will grow in the future. What do we do ourselves to control costs, efficiencies in our business? You know about the improvement programs. This is our commitment within Hydro Extrusions. We have also over-delivered on that in 2025. These numbers we are committed to going forward to 2030. There is a whole range there of different activities that you should be familiar with. We use the extrusion business system, which is typical Toyota lean waste elimination across all these improvement activities to deliver on these ambitious savings targets. I thought I would just give a couple of examples. This one is on automation. The next one on procurement, on the sort of things we do.
I mean, the message should be clear now on growth CapEx for additional capacity in casting extrusions Europe and North America. This is off the agenda. You will see from Trondal's presentation, we reduce significantly our CapEx in Hydro Extrusions. Where do we spend our CapEx? We will still spend where we have opportunities to get good projects, good IRRs, quick paybacks, helping our business to be more efficient, safer, but more profit into the company. This example, I think we have used this before. This is where we still have some old presses in the system, especially in the US. This one is like a [audio distortion] example. These are very good payback projects where we multiple closed two presses, very old presses, some 80, 85 years old. We put in a new modern press.
If anyone's looking at the numbers, 35,000 tonne of one press. This is not a normal direct eight-inch press. These are bigger presses, often indirect presses, very specialized for the markets we're in North America. This is big savings on manning, big savings on uptime and recovery. You can imagine the payback is very convincing. If we can squeeze that into our reduced CapEx numbers, that's the sort of project we go for now. That's not really to generate more capacity in the market. That's just to make us super efficient on the installed capacity we have today. Of course, there's the automation of either fabrication cells on the customer components or different elements of our business upstream, downstream, just to invest on clever projects, demanding the same benefits with a good return.
On procurement, procurement, we've done a lot of work on this just to take it a little bit away from local plant procurement, make it much more a central category management, upgrading, if you like, of our procurement processes. This has been extremely successful for us over the last years by adopting a very analytical, detailed approach. In this example, this is about logistics in the U.S. You think you're good at logistics, but if you do a real clean sheet approach on how you're working with suppliers, how you're working internally on your own processes, a lot of change management in this, but you end up with significant benefits. Every project we do, we make savings on the procurement, the unit prices, consolidating suppliers. We waste, eliminate a lot of the process, and we change packing materials, and then we get improvements in internal productivity.
These are convincing. That is one on logistics. There is another one just to share on packaging, same methodology, same results. Happens to be the same EBITDA saving, $3.7 million. We have numerous projects like this running around the globe with very well-defined procurement tools to deliver these savings. We are very confident on the two middle numbers there. The improvement programs coming from internal actions, the commercial ambitions from what we do in the market to build our share in our core segments. The unknown is a bit on the left, the gray one, where we still have to see normalized remount margins, especially in Europe. Our current action in Europe will help that process. It is a lower number now going forward to 2030 than it was one year ago. It was 30% North America. It is now 20%. Europe is a similar number, 20%-25%.
We do need that recovery in the market to give us a step up. On the right-hand side, we have reduced CapEx significantly this year and next year. Like I say, there is no growth CapEx until the markets turn. That, of course, is impacting our number. The 10-12 you know about is now 8-10 with what we see today. I am just about out of time, and that is the end. We are ready for a break, and I am here on stage later with my colleagues to take questions.
Thank you, Paul. As Paul said, we are now past the halfway point, so we will break for 15 minutes, and we will be back here for the financial presentation by Trond Olav Christophersen.
Good morning also from my side, and welcome back. Great to see all of you here today.
My aim today is to translate all of what Eivind and Paul have been explaining earlier today into the numbers for Hydro for next year and also towards 2030. First, I'll start by looking at the past 12 months. Hydro has delivered very solid results, driven by strong performance upstream and positive revenue developments. Meanwhile, the pressure on our downstream businesses, as we have discussed before, continues from last year, with both extrusions and recycling facing significant challenges to meet expectations. As a result, Hydro has delivered a ROAC for the past 12 months of 10.9%, above our 10% target. Over the five-year period, the ROAC stands at a solid 13.5%, demonstrating our commitment to generating returns above the cost of capital through the cycle.
Over the same 12-month period, Hydro has delivered an adjusted EBITDA of NOK 31 billion, benefiting again from strong upstream performance, partly offset by the weak European and North American markets for our downstream segments. Looking at the recent history of Hydro, this adjusted EBITDA level for the past 12 months, as of Q3, is at a very healthy level compared to the history. Given the headwinds in our downstream segments and with uncertainties around global politics and trade, we have taken steps to safeguard cash flow. The capital allocation has been revised down, and operating capital is a continuous focus area. As a result, I'm pleased to report a free cash flow over the past 12 months above NOK 10 billion. This is both a clear improvement over the last couple of years and also very strong in a historical perspective.
Turning then to the outlook, I would first like to remind you about our financial framework, which is designed to drive long-term shareholder value. We operate in industries where we see pronounced cycles and periods of volatility. Having a resilient financial framework is therefore crucial to staying on course and executing our strategy consistently, regardless of market conditions. Our framework is anchored in four pillars. Firstly, Hydro has sustained a solid financial position underpinned by disciplined debt management, prudent capital allocation, and clearly prioritized investments. This disciplined approach has enabled us to navigate another year of uncertainty while preserving the capacity to pursue opportunities with strong long-term value creation potential. Our investment-grade credit rating continues to validate the robustness of our financial profile and ensures access to competitive financing over time.
Moreover, Hydro's average adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio has remained well below the targeted maximum of 2x over the cycle. This conservative leverage level strengthens our financial resilience and provides the flexibility needed to manage market volatility while maintaining our commitment to strategic investments. Secondly, our profitability roadmaps continue to serve as essential guides for driving the company forward. The cornerstone remains our improvement program targeting NOK 6.5 billion towards 2030. This year, we have also introduced additional measures to strengthen performance. This includes the restructuring of Extrusion Europe, as Paul has further described, that we also announced yesterday, and also the white-collar FTE adjustment program we announced this summer to further manage our costs. We are now fully benefiting from the energy savings in Brazil and continue progress on smelter ramp-ups and capacity creep.
Together, these actions reinforce our focus on operational excellence and long-term competitiveness. The third pillar in the financial framework is that we maintain a firm commitment to clear and disciplined capital allocation. Aligned with our more focused strategic direction, we expect that approximately 60% of our growth and return-seeking CapEx for the period 2026 to 2029 will be directed towards the defined strategic growth areas. This prioritization ensures that our investments are concentrated where Hydro can generate the strongest long-term returns while supporting the transformation of our portfolio. The fourth pillar in the financial framework is linked to strategic investments, where we continue to uphold a robust and predictable approach to shareholder returns. Since 2021, Hydro has distributed a total of NOK 41 billion through dividends and share buybacks, consistent with our NOK 25 billion net debt target.
As demonstrated in our 2024 capital allocation, we remain committed to this balanced framework, supporting strategic growth while delivering stable and reliable cash return to our shareholders. With the financial foundation in place, I will then move on to the first year of delivery under the new improvement program. Improvement programs have been, for many years, a key component of our strategy for resilience and for value creation. In last year, we launched a new improvement program towards 2030, which aims to reinforce strong focus on performance and directly support the successful execution of our strategy. After one year, execution is ahead of plan with NOK 1.2 billion in improvements expected in 2025, well above the previously communicated NOK 600 million target. The full NOK 6.5 billion is on track for delivery by 2030.
As part of the 2025 achievement, we have some areas that have delivered better than expected. Commercial improvements in the bauxite and alumina business area have been stronger this year, as well as the procurement program, which also has delivered above target. At the same time, we have been behind plan in some of the areas, and to mention a few, the operational improvement program in aluminium metal has been somewhat behind due to temporary issues with anode quality, which has now been sorted out. In addition, the commercial performance in extrusions has also not lived up to the potential and expectation this year. To provide some more transparency on some of the key drivers behind the results in the operational improvement program, I will highlight some of the examples on the next page.
Despite a challenging market environment for recycling, recycling operations have still delivered a positive hot metal cost reduction of around NOK 30 million in 2025. Part of the challenge this year has been that at times, the use of standard ingot has been more profitable than the use of scrap due to the relatively high scrap prices. It has been more difficult to capture the full value of our scrap capabilities. Against this backdrop, we are happy with the performance in the recycling operations and see this as a solid achievement. The next two improvement initiatives have been delivered by bauxite and alumina. Through targeted efforts to optimize mining transportation efficiency, the team has achieved a 13% reduction in fuel consumption per ton kilometer.
This improvement translates into cost savings of approximately NOK 15 million, reflecting a meaningful step forward in operational performance and resource efficiency. The team has also successfully improved bottlenecks in Alunorte, increasing overall refinery flow by around 1%. While this may appear quite modest, even a 1% increase at this scale in the refinery delivers meaningful value, contributing around an estimated NOK 85 million in operational improvements in 2025. Automation and technology are other examples, and implementation remains a vital enabler for long-term competitiveness. They allow us to streamline operations, improve reliability and efficiency, and also cost reductions. The following examples from aluminium metal and Hydro Extrusions, and also our Global Business Service Organization, showcase some of those technology and automation opportunities. In Extrusions, automation initiatives have enabled a reduction of approximately 150 FTEs, translating into cost improvements of around NOK 60 million.
Much of the automation in Extrusion is implemented with in-house competence, making robotisation both cost-effective and also agile. In aluminum metal, the rollout of smart breakers in the pots in the Odal and Sunndal smelter is also delivering a further NOK 30 million in efficiency by improving electrolysis performance and enabling more stable production. Finally, the Global Business Service Organization has, through process optimisation and license consolidation, generated approximately NOK 30 million in savings by redesigning and automating processes, reducing complexity and improving efficiencies. Together, these initiatives illustrate how the whole organisation is working with numerous targeted improvement initiatives and delivering measurable reoccurring savings. These are all the savings and initiatives that we add up in our improvement program. Moving on to some further profitability levers outside the formal improvement program.
The cases I would like to highlight here today include the energy cost improvements at Alunorte, the capacity ramp-up in the smelters, and also our strategic workforce adjustments. One of the most significant decarbonization initiatives we executed last year was the fuel switch at Alunorte. The chart on the left shows the quarterly unadjusted energy cost development for the refinery. As shown, we have transitioned from an energy mix dominated by fuel oil to a mix based largely on LNG, where the other category represents coal, electricity, and biomass consumption in the refinery. The result is both a positive step change in reduced CO2 emissions and the cost reduction so far around $50 million per quarter. We are also making solid progress on the ramp-up of the curtailed smelter capacity.
The volumes we curtailed in 2022 are expected to be fully back during 2026, where every tonne provides a positive contribution to the bottom line. In addition, we have highly attractive CREEP projects under execution, as well as a potential project for future decisions. The upside from these CREEP projects will be captured in the regular improvement program. On the people side, our strategic workforce adjustment is progressing ahead of plan. We have already achieved the targeted white-collar FTE reduction for 2025. At the same time, we have a clear plan to deliver on the reduced consulting and travel costs of approximately NOK 200 million in 2026. The redundancy cost for 2025 is expected to be around NOK 400 million booked outside the adjusted EBITDA, and we expect little to no redundancy costs for 2026.
Let's then move to the outlook for 2026, based on our adjusted EBITDA of NOK 31 billion delivered over the last 12 months per Q3. The strategic white-collar workforce reduction and cost efficiency measures is expected to generate savings of NOK 900 million when compared to 2026 with the last 12 months. Furthermore, based on the current market conditions, ramp-up of curtailed smelter volumes will contribute with additional NOK 300 million, although the ramp-up profile is dependent also on the market development. Next, the improvement program is expected to further boost results by an estimated NOK 1.2 billion. This takes us to an estimated adjusted EBITDA for 2026 of approximately NOK 33 billion if markets stay as they have been for the last 12 months.
If we take the last 12 months from Q3 as a starting point, but use spot prices instead of the average last 12 months prices, we get a positive market impact, bringing the total EBITDA to around NOK 35 billion. Higher aluminium spot prices and higher standard ingot premiums are the biggest positive contributions, while less favourable US dollar to NOK currency rates and lower alumina spot prices have a negative impact on the consolidated level. We have also illustrated market sensitivities at the bottom of this slide for the main commodity drivers. There are many moving parts that are not included in this overview. Furthermore, this is not a guidance, but a high-level sensitivity analysis, which aims to cover the largest moving parts in the results for next year. Moving then to capital allocation for the company.
While the capital allocation framework remains consistent with previous years, the backdrop of a softer market and increased uncertainty has led us to sharpen our priorities even further. In this context, we have deliberately reduced return-seeking and growth CapEx to concentrate more tightly on the most value-creating opportunities across our portfolio. The upstream segments remain in sustain and improve strategic mode, meaning asset reliability is the core priority in the capital allocation. Despite the continued softness in the downstream markets, we remain a strong conviction in the long-term fundamentals of extrusions and recycling. These areas, therefore, receive the highest share of the growth CapEx, although the absolute amount has been reduced this year and also next year. Finally, securing access to competitive renewable energy remains essential to our strategy.
We are selectively allocating growth capital to the energy business area, like the Illvatn pump hydro storage project that we announced this year. The capital allocation for both 2025 and 2026 has been reduced to NOK 13.5 billion, down from the previously guided NOK 15 billion. In addition, we have removed the NOK 1 billion-NOK 2 billion of annual flexibility from both our short and medium-term guidance to provide greater transparency and predictability. The medium-term CapEx guidance of around NOK 15 billion remains unchanged, reflecting our commitment to the 2030 strategy. Sustaining CapEx remains stable, reflecting the continued importance of preserving the integrity of our assets and ensuring reliable and efficient operations. After several years of upward pressure, we are now seeing sustaining CapEx levels stable, supported by more disciplined planning and improvement execution.
Growth and return-seeking CapEx continues to be allocated to key strategic focus areas, as illustrated in the chart on your right. The expected returns for the investments reflect normalised market conditions and remain in line with previously communicated indications. This analyses our confidence in the profitability outlook of the downstream segments longer term. At the same time, we recognise the current market softness and reduced investment amount downstream are now increasingly directed towards projects that give good payback based on cost and efficiency improvements alone and less towards expansion of capacity. On the net operating capital side, our performance has improved over the last years and stabilised, and we continue to focus to get the net operating capital performance improving going forward. We expect the net operating capital days to improve by two days in 2026, driven mainly by mid and downstream stock improvements.
The improvements are expected to come as a result of improved systems, supply chain flexibility, and further strengthening of the recycling network. The NOK 30 billion guidance is in line with the Q3 2025 year-end 2025 guidance, reflecting underlying improvement expectations for Q4 2025 and also 2026, partly offset by the higher premiums, especially in the U.S. Moving on to our profitability growth roadmaps, where we summarize everything that we have been through today. What we present as the 2030 potential for EBITDA, ROAC, and cash flow are not forecasts, but simplified indications, long-term potentials based on sensitivities after we have delivered on the planned improvement programs and also the growth initiatives. We have used a spot market price scenario in addition to the base case scenario where we keep prices constant on the last 12 months as of Q3.
We start with adjusted EBITDA Q3 last 12 months at NOK 31 billion and ROAC at 10.9%. If we add the planned improvements and growth potential, we get to adjusted EBITDA of NOK 43 billion and ROAC of 16%. When we run sensitivities on spot prices, the adjusted EBITDA is lifted to NOK 45 billion and ROAC to 17%. This indicates strong profitability based on our current ambitions. The cash flow potential illustrates the cash flow available for return-seeking and growth CapEx and shareholder distribution, which is at NOK 24 billion based on last 12 months assumptions and NOK 25 billion in the spot scenario. The delta between the EBITDA potential and the cash flow potential is largely the tax payment in addition to the annual sustaining CapEx. We see further drivers not included in the scenarios, both on the positive and the negative side.
On the positive side, we could see some further upside potential due to positive market and macro development. We have a higher greener volume potential than visualized here. Declining focus on greener products or unfavorable regulatory frameworks can have a negative impact. These potential positive and negative drivers could also apply to all the business areas that I will present next. Moving to bauxite and alumina. Despite operating in the first quartile of the cost curve, bauxite and alumina experienced a period of challenging profitability in the years before 2024. Since then, the situation has fundamentally shifted. B&A delivered a remarkable last 12 months ROAC of 29%, driven by high alumina prices in the last quarter of last year and also the beginning of this year, along with the full impact of the implementation of the fuel switch project.
This is well above the 10% return requirement for B&A, aligned with our long-term ambition for sustainable growth and value creation. Adding planned improvements, the ROAC increases by an additional 2 percentage points to 31%. However, B&A is highly sensitive to the alumina price, which currently is significantly lower than what has materialized on average over the past 12 months. This, in turn, leads to significantly lower profitability in the spot scenario with a ROAC of 4%. We remain focused on enhancing B&A's profitability by further improving the cost position, strengthening operational reliability, and advancing on the sustainability performance. B&A also plays a pivotal role in terms of delivering Hydro's overall greener products to the market. While we have made significant strides in mitigating risks through asset integrity improvements and fostering stronger community relationships, operational and country-specific risks remain, particularly in Brazil's volatile regulatory environment.
Managing these challenges effectively, along with navigating operational complexity at the bauxite mine, will remain essential to maintaining B&A's critical role in Hydro's value chain. Moving to aluminium metal. Similar to last year, we present aluminium metal and Metal Markets as separate reporting segments to provide transparency and clear understanding of their individual contributions to performance. Looking at aluminium metal Q3 last 12 months, ROAC has been 11%. When adding contributions from the improvement programs, restart of curtailed volumes, and growth initiatives, ROAC increases to 14%, significantly exceeding the return target. Q3 last 12 months EBITDA is at NOK 10 billion. After ramp-up of curtailed volumes, improvements, and growth initiatives, we get to NOK 13 billion. While B&A's profitability is challenging in the spot market scenario, aluminium metal, on the other hand, would deliver remarkable returns in this scenario.
Based on spot aluminium and alumina prices and currency rates, aluminium metal would deliver a ROAC of 30%. Looking at free cash flow, we see this ranging from NOK 7-15 billion between the different scenarios. There are several further upside drivers for aluminium metal in the coming years, in addition to those earlier mentioned. There are potential benefits in portfolio optimization and in continuing to target high-value segments, like we have exemplified with our wire rod investments at Karmøy. Further potential on the downside risk includes operational and supply chain disruptions that could affect productivity and delivery timelines. Moving to metal markets. Over the last two years, metal markets have faced profitability challenges due to persistently rising scrap prices and subdued demand. These pressures are evident in the last 12 months' Q3 ROAC of just 0.5%, significantly below the targeted 8%.
However, looking ahead towards 2030, as markets normalize, ongoing projects are completed, and the improvements are realized, we continue to anticipate a substantial recovery with a potential ROAC of 13%. In the EBITDA bridge, the expected improvements become evident, illustrating the increase from the current Q3 last 12 months EBITDA of NOK 700 million to projected NOK 3 billion-NOK 4 billion. This trajectory reflects the impact of ongoing initiatives and market recovery, underscoring the long-term value potential in the recycling activities in metal markets. Further upside potential for metal markets includes increased scrap availability, as well as technology development and deployment. Further downside risks include prolonged market downturn affecting both demand and scrap availability, and increased competition also for scrap. Moving to extrusions. Challenging market conditions with significant demand reduction have impacted extrusions heavily over the last two years.
For Q3 last 12 months, extrusions achieved a ROAC of 2%, far below the targeted level. Identified improvement measures, growth projects, and market recovery are expected to lift these figures significantly, leading to a ROAC of 12%. Our long-term EBITDA target is ranging from NOK 8 billion-NOK 10 billion, with free cash flow projected around NOK 6 billion under this scenario. Further upside potential for extrusions lies in driving higher growth, continuous portfolio optimization, and accelerating improvement initiatives. Digitalization, in particular, presents a substantial opportunity within the extrusion business and across the whole portfolio in extrusions. On the downside, downside risks include inflationary pressure alongside the market and operational performance variability that we have seen. These factors will require careful management to sustain long-term profitability. Moving to the final business area, energy.
Energy, when we present this, we have excluded the Rhine Joint Venture, which is reflected in Hydro's financials as an equity-accounted investment. For Q3 last 12 months, energy excluding Rhine Joint Venture had an EBITDA of NOK 4.5 billion, which is a strong result compared to energy's historical performance. In the normalisations and other categories, assumed lower gain on price area differences long-term is reducing EBITDA, which is partly offset by higher net spot sales based on the normalised production volume. After adjusting for improvement program and growth ambitions, we anticipate EBITDA of NOK 4.1 billion in energy excluding Rhine Joint Venture. When using spot energy prices, the EBITDA remains stable at the same level with the corresponding free cash flow of NOK 1.4 billion. A key further upside driver is strong energy markets on the back of increasing demand for renewable energy.
On the downside, energy markets remain volatile and are exposed to changes in regulatory frameworks, including tax regulations around power production. Moving to our dividend policy, Hydro remains focused on delivering competitive shareholder return, continuously benchmarking performance against comparable investment alternatives. The proposed distribution for 2025 will be presented with our Q4 results in February 2026 and put forward for approval at the annual general meeting in May 2026. Over the past five years, from 2020 to 2024, Hydro has maintained a strong payout ratio, averaging 67% excluding the share buybacks. From 2020 to 2024, we have consistently delivered on our dividend policy, achieving an average dividend yield of 5.9% over the five-year period.
This was supported by notably strong yields of 9.9% for 2021 and 7.7% for 2022 earnings, reflecting substantial distributions in excess of the 50% adjusted net income guideline, which is also a standout level compared to an industrial context. Our capital structure policy remains unchanged, with an adjusted net debt target of around NOK 25 billion over the cycle, which continues to include the current year's shareholder distribution. As I conclude my part today, I would like to highlight the key parts of Hydro's financial strategy. First, we continue to uphold a strong financial position supported by our investment-grade credit rating, which provides both flexibility and resilience through cyclical markets. We also maintain a solid shareholder payout ratio in line with our dividend policy, reinforcing our commitment to value creation and predictable returns.
Thirdly, we are reinforcing the strong performance drive across the company, increasing resilience through market cycles. Our improvement initiatives are on track to exceed the 2025 target and remain firmly positioned to deliver on the 2030 target. On top of this, we have initiated additional improvement initiatives this year to further strengthen operational excellence and long-term competitiveness. On capital allocation, maintaining strict capital discipline remains central to our financial strategy. We have tightened our near-term investment plans in 2025 and 2026 to protect our flexibility to navigate changing market conditions. At the same time, we continue to focus the growth and return-seeking investments in key strategic priority areas, ensuring that the capital is deployed where it can best support Hydro's long-term ambitions and deliver sustainable value.
The proposed capital allocation and improvement targets, supported by reduced investment levels, continued capital discipline, and ongoing cost-cutting efforts, strengthen Hydro's competitive position in challenging markets. Furthermore, this reinforces earnings resilience through the cycle and lays a solid foundation for sustained growth and attractive shareholder returns. With that, I would like to welcome Eivind back on stage for his final message and then our Q&A.
Thank you, Trond Olav. Let me close with a somewhat broader picture and summarize why we believe Hydro is well positioned to continue to create value in an ever more volatile world. First of all, we have a world-class asset base. There are a few, if any, companies in our industry that can combine long-life, bauxite, and alumina resources, low-emissions primary portfolio, and the world's largest extrusion business.
These are strategic, long-term assets that give us scale, optionality, and a very competitive cost base. Secondly, energy resilience. Aluminium production very often comes down to access to power. We have premium access to reservoir-based hydropower in high-value markets, but we also have strong sourcing capabilities that secure us predictable renewable power for our global smelter portfolio. That is an advantage that few companies can replicate overnight. Third, we have a low carbon advantage. Through Hydro REDUXA and Hydro CIRCAL, we have built credible, verified low carbon brands with full traceability from mine to metal. These are commercially successful products that customers choose because they trust the data behind them. Fourth, a strategic supplier in Western deficit regions. The shifts that we see in trade policy, security of supply, and regionalisation all point in one direction. Reliable producers inside the U.S. and the European systems are becoming more valuable.
Hydro is already embedded in these supply chains, close to customers, inside the tariff walls, and positioned to deliver certified metal quickly. Fifth, capital discipline and predictable returns. We have over time shown that we can both grow and strengthen a company while protecting the balance sheet, delivering improvements, and maintaining a solid and strong dividend track record. As you heard earlier today, we continue to prioritize disciplined capital allocation aligned with the market realities as we see them. Finally, we are positioned for growth. Long-term offtakes, framework agreements, and deep technical partnerships give us clear visibility on demand in the fastest-growing green transition segments. Our integrated value chain, from mine to metal to recycling to extrusion, enables us to scale traceable, sustainable products with a strong customer pool.
To conclude, in a more ever more volatile macro environment, the value of what Hydro already is only becomes more pronounced. That is also why we're confident in our long-term position and why we continue to execute with discipline on the strategy that we have set out towards 2030. Thank you so much for the attention.
Please stay and we invite Trond Olav and Paul back on stage for the Q&A. We have two microphones in the room, one in the front, one in the back. Raise your hand and please wait until we get the microphone to make sure we get the sound also on the webcast.
Hans Erik Jacobsen, Arctic. You are maintaining a significant uplift on recycling. Does that include any potential restrictions on scrap exports from the US and Europe, or will that come on top?
That would come on top. What we assume in the bridge is really a normalisation of prices that we have seen in the past over a certain period of time. We are not taking the peak here, but the normalisation of prices over time. What is in a way good is that there seems now to be more regulatory support on exports of scrap. Safco, which was out last week, said that they are working hard on this to find a mechanism to ensure that more of the valuable scrap stays on shore in Europe. That, of course, comes from two angles. It comes from the fact that Europe is short what they define as a strategic raw material. Export of scrap is also export of energy in solid form.
Remember, recycling scrap takes 5% of the energy as it takes when we produce it the first time. So it's really about strategic resilience for the European area as well.
Thank you.
Good morning. Thanks for the presentation, [audio distortion] from RBC. I have two questions on my side on extrusions. Can you give us a bit more color on the internal rate of return that you're achieving with the reductions in capacity that you announced today? And then looking into 2026, how should we be thinking about extrusion EBITDA? Is it fair to assume it might be another flat year on year, or how are you thinking about it right now?
So starting your fill in. Yeah, you should start.
I think when you think about the internal rate of return, half a billion NOK in cost savings, speed out of 2026 capital savings, avoided CapEx on top of that, that combined with restructuring cost of less than two, gives you a payback time somewhere between two and three years.
Yes, it's an attractive return on IRR for sure. Market next year, I mean, we're not guiding for 2026 given all the uncertainties that we see in the marketplace. We'll refer you to the market commentators on what they're saying for 2026. I think with what you've heard today, current condition, geopolitics, inflation, energy, all the issues that are challenging us in the last few years, until some of those are resolved, then it's challenging to look at the CRU forecasts and say, okay, that's what's going to happen.
If you remember from previous years, this is very much a slower start in H1 and then recovering in H2. We need to watch, look, learn, listen, and we'll adapt accordingly. Yes, it's positive. It's second half loaded, but we're not going to spend money unless we see those numbers really coming through.
I think it's also important to add, building on your comment earlier, Paul, pipelines from end consumer to our production seem to be pretty emptied out, meaning also that if there is a turnaround, you will probably get the multiplicator of demand, at least at the beginning as you start to replenish the pipeline.
Hi, Dan Major from UBS, [audio distortion] . First question, just looking at the cost performance in the bauxite and alumina business.
On slide 46, you share this $50 million run rate of reduction in energy costs relative to first half of 2024. When we look at your reported unit costs in B&A, they went up because of the third-party purchases of alumina, and they've come down to around the same level as they were before the fuel switch project. Where is an additional $50 million per quarter of costs coming from in this business to offset the reduction in energy? What's the outlook for that going forward?
Yeah, what we show in our presentation pack is the actual energy cost in Alunorte. We actually do see that we deliver on the target of around $200 million in energy cost savings in Alunorte.
I think what makes it a bit more difficult for you to follow on the outside is, as you referred to, Dan, the part of what you're seeing is also including the profits from our third-party alumina portfolio. Although we don't present the contracts we have, I think it's well known in the market that we have LME-linked contracts in that portfolio. You will see different profitability on those contracts depending on the LME percentage for the alumina price and the actual alumina price in the market. I think that is blurring the picture that you are following when you look at the sort of apparent cost level in Alunorte. When it comes to the cost position in Alunorte, we do see the energy savings that we expected.
Okay, just to follow up on that, if inputs stayed the same as they are today in terms of LME, etc., would you expect that reported unit cost of about $340 to trend lower going forward, or would it be at a similar run rate?
More or less, I would say that. I mean, we always have the improvements and all of that we're working on over time, taking down cost levels. As always in B&A, it's really the commodity price movement that will be the biggest drivers of the results. If everything stayed flat, yes, more or less.
Okay. Just a second question, if I could. You mentioned the costs of restructuring and the redundancies through the P&L being largely done by the end of this year.
If we think about the gap between net income and cash flow, or what are the cash items we should expect for next year, is there any other significant cash flow items that might impact the net debt bridge into next year as a consequence of that restructuring, or is that all done by the end of this year?
For the shape program, so the white collar restructuring that we've done. Or any other items that will be mostly complete to any significance by the tail end of this year. No change in working capital, no other items, like it should be a fairly clean year as you see it this year in terms of cash flow conversion. Yeah, that's what we expect, yes.
Okay, thanks a lot.
Ephrem Ravi from Citi. First question on the roadmap on the extrusions.
There's the $600 million-$900 million commercial ambitions and $600 million-$1 billion from uplift from growth projects. How much of those two are really dependent on a market recovery? If there is no market recovery, should we just take those off from the roadmap?
Commercial ambitions, first of all, I mean, this is a market share development. Whether your markets are up or down, the share is always consistent. That's one that, because of what we do with components and OEMs and projects, this will build market share for us. That's in the numbers in a soft market and a growing market. Of course, you would imagine it's a bit easier to treat those in a high-speed growth market. On the growth, that's CapEx driven, of course. This is, for example, the Karmøy Zero investment.
This is the Hungary Kastenhaus investment. This is the automotive presses in Hungary and Tonda. Those will deliver on the projects we've already booked. As long as the rollout of these platforms with the components is in line with our projections and the OEM projections today, they will deliver no matter what is happening in the rest of the markets. If that softens, of course that will impact the growth projects from those investments.
Related to that, if you look at the IRR chart, the pie chart on page 40, the recycling projects supposedly have an IRR of 15%-30% and extrusions 20%-35%. Your current ROCs in that business is 0% and 2% respectively. Again, what kind of assumptions of market recovery do you need for those IRRs to be met?
Is there any flexibility on the CapEx spend to kind of stop it now and not destroy value?
I can comment on it. Yes, the indicated IRRs are based on normalised market conditions. What we do see from all the projects we have sanctioned for extrusions the last one and a half, two years is that they deliver well above cost of capital even without any market growth. They are above 10% if you assume that the market just stays flat from now on forever. They are still profitable projects because of the cost savings in these projects. Paul showed one example with this press replacement where we take out mining costs and reduce maintenance costs with the new presses, and that more than compensates for no growth.
Thanks.
Last, just maybe this is a question for someone else, but Tomago's melter, you've obviously the power contract goes off. What's the latest on that? Are you prepared to kind of go along with whatever your JV partner decides on that project now, I suppose?
No, the consultation process in Australia and Tomago is ongoing. We still have power until the end of 2028. Negotiations so far have been constructive. As you know, we have not been able to find a good power contract until now. If that arises between now and the end of 2028, will we look at that? Yes, we would. As of today, with the power contracts that we've had on the table, it's very hard to see that it's viable beyond 2028. A new contract would need to come.
It's Jason Fairclough, Bank of America.
A bit of a market question for you. If we think about metal flows into Europe, there are a couple of big smelters that are under pressure right now. We have Mosell turning off. That is not small. We have Force Majeure out of Century in Iceland. Conversely, we have this distortion in the U.S. because of tariffs, right? How do we think about those metal flows? What does it mean for premiums? Do you feel like your markets business is being dynamic enough here? Two potentially significant disruptions, right?
Mosell, roughly 500,000 tons, typically 300,000 of that comes into Europe. Isol, roughly 200,000 tons being out, at least for the better part of 2026. These are typically what you would call greener standard ingots. Again, it comes into what kind of pressure does that actually give to European premiums?
Because 500,000 tons less, and then 500,000 tons less of green standard ingots. There will be, again, less greener products in 2026 if these two still stay out or are closed after March 2026 in Mozambique. We'll see, but it should be a positive support. On top of that, of course, you also have the Russian sanctions where quantities will be taken down from 270,000 tons in 2025 down to 50,000 tons come February 2026. Again, taking away metal that typically had been placed in Europe. Fundamentally, that should be good. It will change from trade flows if Europe still needs that metal, and that will be attracting them either from the Gulf or from the Southeast Asian parts of the world.
Again, to the second part, do you feel like your markets people are in a good position to harvest this?
We believe we are in a very good position to harvest on this, Jason.
Thank you.
It's Amos Fletcher from Barclays. First question was just regarding extrusions. Paul, I just wanted to ask, what's the volume number underpinning the 2030 EBITDA target?
You asked that last time, I think, and it's different to what it was one year ago. To be frank, I'll leave that to investor relations if they want to share that.
Okay. Next question was on Alunorte. You guide every quarter for it to operate at nameplate capacity. Yet it basically never does. Is there anything you can do to make sure that it does deliver that and potentially pull down unit costs so we're actually making a proper return on capital instead of 4%? Do you want to answer Alunorte? Sorry, I didn't get your...
I was thinking about the volume. Sorry, Amos.
This was also a volume question. It was just a very different factory. It was Alunorte.
You guide every quarter for it to be at nameplate capacity. Very rarely, if ever, does it deliver nameplate capacity. Is there anything you can do in terms of either spending, debottlenecking to actually deliver that? That could then potentially deliver a quite, well, possibly a proper return on capital instead of 4%, which is not acceptable in Brazil.
Yes, ye s, we do. I mentioned with this in the improvement program, we are following very closely the bottlenecks. That was the improvement I mentioned with the 1% increase in flow. These sort of initiatives to really protect the bottlenecks is key to get up the production in Alunorte. In addition, we are also doing some minor investments also to improve the bottlenecks.
We do have initiatives to get the capacity back to the nameplate. In reality, the actual throughput of the refinery will depend on the bauxite mix and the bauxite quality over time. I think as in most mining operations, you will see a deterioration of bauxite quality compared to what the refinery was designed for. This is sort of the constant fight that we're having to compensate for the different bauxite quality over time.
Okay. The last question was just on sensitivity of your long-term EBITDA targets to CapEx spend. If we were to assume a scenario where markets do not recover, you keep spending NOK 13.5 billion, how much would that impact your 2030 targets? Is there a rough sort of knock-for-knock sensitivity you could give us? You mean if we see no growth for the next five years?
Just if you spend NOK 13.5 billion between now and 2030, how much would that impact your 2030 EBITDA? That would also mean that the market recovery part of the bridge would be much smaller. It is a bit difficult to digest exactly what is in which part of the bridge because it will hit both the market recovery and the growth part by how much. It would depend on how severe the market downturn is.
Okay, fair enough. Thanks.
Good morning. It is Liam Fitzpatrick from Deutsche Bank. First question is linked to that. We hope that European demand will recover, but if we are in the same situation in a year's time, is it safe to assume that NOK 13.5 billion is the level of CapEx that you will continue to spend into 2027?
We will come back to whatever the number will be if the market does not recover.
I think the important part that we've tried to convey today, and which I believe we're actually showing in the numbers this year and indicating for next year, is that we have a modular and incremental investment basis on how we do this. If the market doesn't recover, we will, of course, not do the investments, capital investments. We can have a debate, is it 13 or 13.5? Yes, we will not invest up to NOK 15 billion again unless we see market recovery and there is a market need for the products that we invest in or production that we invest in.
The second one is on the shareholder returns. If we're looking ahead to the four-year results, should we assume that you stick fairly rigidly to the NOK 25 billion, or is there a bit of flexibility around that?
Because we have seen that in prior years. At least in this meeting, we'll stick to the commentary we have and the dividend policy that we have. 50% of adjusted net income and then a net adjusted debt target of 25. We'll see.
The last one from me. Just on this scrap policy, it sounds potentially very bullish for you. Is there a risk, though, that when we go through H1, if we start hearing a bit more around the policies, that it could actually cause some dislocation and it could lead to higher exports in the short term and actually negatively impacting your business?
That would build on the assumption that there is a lot of scrap lying around in Europe that could just flow out, which I do not think is the case at the moment.
Yes, there could be some short-term distortion, but I don't think that will be significant.
Hi, this is Alain Gabriel from Morgan Stanley. Follow-up on Liam's question on the CapEx for 2026. How much flex do you have to cut CapEx if things do not improve at all from here onwards? A follow-up on that one is, again, if we take a snapshot today and assume no improvement, how much working capital would you think you would release in 2026?
Yeah, on the CapEx side, of course, you always have some flexibility. The 13.5 really consists of sustaining capital because that is important to uphold over time. It's, of course, the easiest thing to cut, right? You can cut it in half and then everything runs fine for six months, and then you have a lot of machines standing still and not able to operate, and that's expensive.
We want to keep the machines and our plants and operations up to speed. What comes on top of that is really, for the most part, already approved projects that we have. Some flexibility, but we will be careful adjusting it from that level.
Thank you. On the working capital?
The working capital, we have the guiding on the NOK 30 billion this year and the same end of next year. I mean, there are some price movements working against us when it comes to the total working capital level, but then on the performance side, the plan is to compensate for that through the performance side.
Thank you.
Hi, it's Matt Green from Goldman Sachs.
I just want to press on Alunorte and from Amos's question and Trond Olav, I think you may have answered it a bit, but relative to 2023 or a few years ago, this bauxite quality issue that you just highlighted there, and sort of where have you seen your consumable costs go up? I'm not talking energy, I'm talking caustic, I'm talking bauxite. Also on the mining side, because you highlighted downside risk here as operational complexity in the mine. Yeah, can you just sort of touch on how the bauxite operations are going and where your consumables have gone up in Alunorte in the last few years?
When you start a mining operation, you typically start in the best area, and then you mine the best grades, and then the quality deteriorates over time. This is a trend in all mines, I think.
As for us, the operation in itself is progressing well. No sort of operational issues in the Paragominas mine hitting our results this year. What we are working on is one of the examples I showed, how can we get down the unit cost for transportation because we have to drive longer distances as we continue to mine new areas, and that we are trying to compensate for as part of our improvement program. Those are typically the initiatives we have to compensate for the natural cost increase due to the longer distances and the poorer quality. We have the improvement programs to compensate for that. That is the way we're working on the Paragominas mine. I can't provide any better sort of numbers to underpin and demonstrate it, but that is sort of the working mode to protect operational performance and the profitability of the mine.
There are several initiatives. You say poor quality, but do not leave with the impression that it is bad quality in Paragominas. It is still very good quality, but it is slightly less than what it was when we mined close to the beneficiation plant. There are a number of small but important improvement initiatives. I think we showed a truck on one of the slides, which is very much moving to larger trucks as you move to larger distances. It is moving from diesel, it is moving into electricity also, which again takes down maintenance and takes down transportation costs. We do the removal of the overburden in a different way in certain parts of the mine. Rather than excavating everything directly, we use a technique which is called microfragmentation, which sounds complicated, but it is basically a grid of small explosive charges, which makes removal much easier.
We've done significant upgrades to the cyclones at the beneficiation plant, which also means that we pump less bauxite residue to Alunorte today compared to what we did 12 or 18 months ago, again, taking down operational costs. There is a lot of activities ongoing.
Magnus Rasmussen, SEB. A question on CBAM. You mentioned that you are working to close some loopholes, hopefully from 2028. How do you see the impact on your business financially in 2026 and 2027, given what is currently within scope?
We will see a very limited impact on our results next year. There will be some lower free allowances allocated to everyone in Europe as part of the CBAM. You get, at least if you look at the forward markets for standard ingot in Europe, you see that some of the CBAM cost is then priced into the market.
In terms of our numbers, you will not really see a difference.
Thank you.
Hi, it's Dan from UBS again. Just to follow up on that question, modeling the CBAM impact is quite tricky. We can see the spread between the duty paid and the duty unpaid as a sort of proxy for what the market's pricing in. Is it possible to provide some explicit guidance to us on what the cost impact would be of the reduction in free carbon credits, like sequentially now out to 2032, to help us with that process?
I think we can come back on that. I mean, for the coming couple of years, it's very marginal, but we can come back on that.
Okay, thanks. Okay, no further questions. In which case, we will finish off.
Yes, please. That's it for this year's investment.