Hello, and welcome to Hydro's Capital Markets Day 2021. We're very glad that you could join us today. My name is Line Haugetraa, and I'm the head of investor relations here at Hydro. We will first start with a company update by our CEO, Hilde Merete Aasheim, where we'll provide an update on the Hydro 2025 strategy launched at Capital Markets Day last year. Following the presentations, we hope you will also join us for a Q&A. In order to ask questions, you will need to join the conference via the link, and then dial in. If you would only like to listen in, then you can remain on the video webcast. Now, I will hand over to you, Hilde Merete Aasheim, for this short film.
Life, it starts, it ends, and begins again. This endless cycle should not be broken because of the way we do things. Because somewhere, somehow, we all forgot to keep the cycle going. We have to believe that what we do and how we do things matter. That reusing is better than using. That renewing is the way to create truly viable lives for all. A society where everything we make can be renewed, produced from an energy source that can be renewed is what we aim for. We have to be a part of the cycle, not apart from it. Our part is to produce what the world needs. It always has been. More than ever, you should ask us how we produce. And we know how. To create value, to take responsibility, to be part of the solution, to lead the way.
We want to make it matter.
Welcome from me as well, and thank you for joining Hydro's Capital Markets Day 2021. As was said in the film, we have to believe that what we do and how we do things matter. In Hydro, we have always built industries that matter. Hydro was founded in 1905, built on the new innovation to produce fertilizers that enabled increased food production to feed a starving global population at the time. Since then, Hydro has changed many times, but we've always built industries that matter. Today's climate crisis has parallels to when Hydro was founded 116 years ago. The world is experiencing again a global threat. This time it is global warming and the climate crisis. Low-carbon aluminum and more renewable energy is part of the solution to the global climate crisis.
Hydro is well-positioned to provide low carbon aluminum to support the decarbonization and electrification of the transport sector, make the building and construction sector more energy efficient, and reduce the carbon footprints of the building. Finally, to produce more recycled aluminum, supporting the circular economy and the reusing. Hydro is also well-positioned to take a more active developer role to provide more renewable energy, more green hydrogen, and more energy storage capacity to support the energy shift necessary to meet the 1.5-degree target and to save the planet. Again, we are building industries that matter. This year's Capital Markets Day is not only about how we have executed on our 2025 strategy, but also how we will continue to create long-term value in the years to come.
Today, we will announce more ambitious targets in the area of profitability, as well as in the area of climate, environment, and social responsibility. The actions we take now will position Hydro to lead our industry into the future, creating value for all stakeholders, and positively impacting society at large. Let me start with a summary of what we have achieved during the last year. Back in 2019, we set a clear ambition to lift profitability and to drive the sustainability agenda after several years of weak development. I'm pleased with the year we've had in 2021. We kept the wheels turning during the pandemic and delivered strong performance in very strong markets. We have lifted profitability across all our business areas and delivered the full year improvement program target already in Q3 of this year.
Having a clear profitability agenda has guided our prioritization in terms of portfolio development and capital allocation. We have worked with a strict capital allocation regime and allocated return-seeking funds where returns are highest. To support this, we concluded the strategic review and subsequent divestment of Hydro Rolling, providing capital for further profitable growth. I am pleased that we have delivered improved returns over the last 12 months with a ROACE of approximately 13%, which is on our way to reach our target of 10% adjusted ROACE over the cycle. All business areas are expected to deliver above their targets at current market prices. In 2021, we are also taking key steps in the execution of our 2025 strategy, strengthening our low carbon aluminum position, as well as maturing business opportunities with the new energy solutions.
We have made several key investments decision in recycling and extrusions in order to continue to shape and meet the increasing demand for our greener products. In fact, we have sold three times the volumes of greener product this year compared to last year. Finally, I'm satisfied that we have taken the big decision to switch fuel oil with natural gas at Alunorte, which is a major enabler for our 30% CO2 target by 2030. On the back of expected strong financial results and the sale of rolling in 2021, resulting in a very strong balance sheet, the board aims to increase our shareholder payout with an ambition to pay out 70%-80% of adjusted net income for 2021. The final proposed allocation will take place at Q4 reporting. 2021 has been a year of strong markets, but also continued uncertainty.
We have seen positive trends like increased demand post-lockdown, also supported by fiscal stimuli from local governments. There are also many challenges to navigate, like the remaining uncertainties of the pandemic, rising energy prices, both globally and in Europe, and the cascading effect of supply chain bottlenecks. The latter may be an accelerator for onshoring and more re-regionalization of value chains. On top of these challenges, we are facing a global climate crisis. This crisis is creating deep societal shifts. At the recent COP26 in Glasgow, political leaders made progress and important agreements were concluded. It remains highly uncertain whether it is enough and whether it is fast enough. For Hydro, one important takeaway is the increasing expectations for the aluminum industry to address our emissions, both Scope 1, 2, and 3.
Our large presence in Europe adds expectations to us in relation to the European Green Deal and Fit for 55 agenda. Both programs are setting clear emission reduction targets, as well as addressing circularity and product performance expectations of importance for aluminum, the latter also creating opportunities for us. I will revert to how we have sharpened our priorities and responses shortly. Aluminum is one of the key strategic materials for the green transition. Aluminum's properties of being lightweight, durable, and endlessly recyclable make it a strong solution. CRU expects demand for aluminum semis to rise 4% annually over this decade. In the automotive industry, decarbonization and electrification of the vehicles drives the need for aluminum. The building and construction sector needs aluminum to improve the energy efficiency in buildings. An increased investment into solar, wind, and electrification also require more aluminum parts in the infrastructure.
Some of these key segments that you see on this slide have demand growth, which outpaces that of the overall industry. We expect the demand for greener aluminum with low CO2 footprint and recycled content to rise even faster. In line with the trends, our customers are already adapting to the green transition and becoming more and more conscious about their materials of choice. I recently spoke with Kjetil Trædal Thorsen, architect and co-founder of Snøhetta, an internationally renowned architecture and design agency here in Oslo, about the future of the building and construction sector and how sustainability is influencing their industry. I hope you will enjoy a few highlights from our discussion in this short video.
Very nice to see you.
Nice to see you.
Haven't seen you for a long time.
Nice. Welcome, Kjetil. You are one of the founder of Snøhetta, the award-winning international design and architect company. I can't think of a better person to sit here with me today to discuss the future of the building sector, in particular relating to sustainability.
Maybe first we need to be debating a little bit how sustainability actually impact our surroundings and what is actually at stake. I think one of the big challenges is to communicate what is real sustainability when we talk about the environment and CO2, especially in relationship to the future. What we've been hoping for, since the building industry is such an enormous part of this.
Mm-hmm
How can we help define where we need to go, the definitions of where we need to go, and how we actually act upon these definitions.
It's very interesting to hear how passionate you are about that, because that was one of the questions that I wanted to ask, me being passionate about aluminum, and that we promote our low-carbon brands like REDUXA and CIRCAL, where we know exactly the carbon footprint. Do the architects and the ones that define the materials actually know that an aluminum that is produced with coal in China has 10 times-
Mm-hmm
the CO2 footprint compared to a material that is produced from recycled post-consumer aluminum that has been in use coming back?
This is where we need to push because everyone can control, in fact, the consumption of energy. We know by calculating after taking all the measurements on insulation, how the airflow is moving in a building today, we know that the lifespan consumption of energy is only 50% of the total footprint.
Exactly.
We have 85% where we can reduce. This is where, for instance, the CO2 footprint of the types of materials that we're talking about in the building industry comes into effect. The only way we can reduce the CO2 footprint is now by materials.
Mm.
not by consumption.
Mm.
I'm passionate about aluminum too, as you know, because, I mean, you know, that's how I grew up, so it's sort of in my backbone. Based on the fact and what I've seen, you know, it's not common knowledge that when you recycle aluminum, the footprint goes down for each cycle of recycling that you're actually going to. In my profession, that's not common knowledge.
Exactly.
The future challenge is going to be this within aluminum, which has a huge advantage compared to steel, where the energy consumption is the same every time.
We almost saved it all, Kjetil. The good thing about aluminum is that it can be recycled and recycled without losing its properties.
Mm.
We have to bring the material back in the loop.
When we do our procurement, of course, right now we're looking at EPDs, environmental product declarations, because we need to be able to calculate the full CO2 footprint of a building.
Mm.
I can no longer write in aluminum which hasn't specified EPD.
Do you see that your clients are willing to pay a premium to make sure that they get materials that can support their sustainability goals?
It's an interesting question. It's on its way, but it's not there. We see another interesting trend, that we can actually sort of build upon the argumentation that we have for how to choose your materials based on many other things. For instance, life cycle analyses are coming more and more into the overall understanding of the economy of a building. Cradle to cradle thinking.
Mm.
is starting to become something that clients would like to relate to. When you have speculative buildings, where the idea of making money is within the first five years, we are not reaching out. That's why I believe very strongly that we have to find laws.
Mm.
legal requirements.
Mm
Coming from the different governments. The benefit that we're seeing slowly is that people are more idealistically oriented.
Mm.
Not necessarily economically. These clients are for sure, they're paying the premium.
Mm
going there where they want to go. The question is, what is cheapest?
In the end.
In the end.
Mm.
That's why we have to get introduced life-cycle analysis.
Mm
into the building industry to make them understand that after 15 years, this is cheaper
Mm.
Although it costs more at the beginning.
Okay.
At the end, it's cheaper.
Where do you see the main opportunities for aluminum as a material in the building and construction sector? And how important will low carbon and recycled aluminum be going forward?
Well, it's one of these materials where I really believe there is a long-term future. I'm really interested in the material relevance. If you use aluminum because of its capabilities as a material, how much can it stretch? The precision of it.
Mm.
You will find a direction where aluminum is the most suitable material.
Mm.
When the material is recycled, then also the degree of innovation goes up, because you have to make sure that when you use that material, you don't use more than you need.
Mm
for exactly that particular service.
Thank you so much for joining us. I wish you, your company all the best, and I sincerely hope that we see more aluminum in the building and construction sector going forward. Thank you very much. As Kjetil points out, the building sector has focused on energy efficiency, but still 85% of emissions come from the material used. It is clear that the material choice plays an even more important part to achieve net zero buildings. By providing low carbon aluminum, we provide a solution to this challenge, and at the same time create commercial opportunities for ourselves. We have seen strong growth in demand for our greener products in recent years. In the years to come, our customers across sectors have already begun pushing ambitious decarbonization targets to do their part with respect to the global climate agenda.
Greener aluminum is a key lever to reduce scope three emissions for our customers. In the next decades, we expect to see a differentiation in the market, where demand for greener aluminum increases at a faster rate than demand for aluminum made from non-renewable energy sources. The varying levels of carbon and recycled content within aluminum will decommoditize the industry. A market analysis from McKinsey, which you see on this slide, has shown that by 2050, key segments like automotive and packaging will ask for near zero carbon aluminum, requiring suppliers like ourselves to respond. Even by 2030, there is an expectation that the main demand segments will require between 20%-45% greener aluminum, with automotive customers being at the top of that range. Today, the industry cannot produce zero carbon aluminum in an affordable manner and with scale.
Yet our customers, like the automotive OEMs, have ambitious abatement targets. I view this development as a large opportunity to further position and differentiate Hydro. This shows that when the markets start to pull for greener products, the decarbonization challenge turn into commercial opportunities and value pools that incentivize us to invest into innovative solutions to reduce our carbon footprint further. To capitalize on this opportunity, we as Hydro will continue to lead the way on low carbon aluminum, and continue our own decarbonization path. The demand side looks promising, but the supply side is also reacting positively to the climate trends and increasing demand for greener aluminum, which could lead to a shift in industry dynamics compared to the last 10 years. Up until 2020, most of the new production coming online was from coal-based Chinese smelters, and majority of worldwide smelters are still coal and gas-based.
However, in line with the global mega trends, China has committed to carbon neutrality by 2060. Over the next five years, the majority of new Chinese smelters will be based on renewable power. Among Western producers, there are also seen to be limited willingness to build non-renewable smelters based on our overview of external announcements from our peers. In addition, building new capacity based on today's Hall-Héroult technology, which emits CO2 as part of the production processes, could also be seen as risky at a time when several companies are researching carbon-free primary aluminum production technologies, including our own HalZero technology. The green transition requires large amounts of renewable energy for many other industries and consumers in addition to aluminum. In China, the aluminum industry has struggled with energy consumption targets, power rationing, and hydropower shortages, leading to widespread smelter curtailments last year.
Due to these constraints, in the current but also forward-looking perspective, external consultancies have downgraded their production outlook for China and expect negative supply growth next year. This results in expectations of lower absolute production levels for the period up to 2025 than what had been expected earlier. The curtailment in China has resulted in the country becoming a net importer of primary aluminum in 2021. Despite some recent interventions to bring in additional coal to support the energy shortage, the energy supply remains constricted and new winter cuts as well as cuts ahead of the Olympics could be expected. Paired with strong global demands, this will lead to global deficits expected in both 2021 and 2022 before production in China is expected to increase and bring the market closer to balance again.
However, to meet the expected growth in aluminum going forward, new greener capacity will need to come on stream. With what technology and in what geography still remains to be answered. If you look at the range of external analyst estimates, the outlook is varied, and certain bullish consultancies expect the global deficit to plunge even further in the coming years. What is certain is that both the development and opportunities we see on the demand side, as well as the development and uncertainties on the supply side, look better for aluminum than what we have seen for quite some years, and especially good for a company like Hydro. We believe Hydro is well-positioned to create value from the mega trends we see today and from the commercial opportunities we expect in the future.
We have a strong foundation to build on across the entire aluminum value chain. We have expertise and competence and a global talented workforce and more than 30,000 motivated colleagues around the world. Our teams are currently working on a variety of paths to decarbonize our operations and bring greener products to the market to meet the future demand. Our technology pilot at Karmøy is producing primary aluminum with the lowest energy consumption in the world, and many of the technology elements from the technology pilot are gradually implemented at our other smelters, as was the case for our recent restart at Husnes, bringing an old line back at the world-class standards. Thanks to our world-leading downstream position, we also shape demand by developing creative, innovative, and sustainable solutions in close collaboration with customers.
We are well-positioned in attractive segments that demand greener aluminum like automotive and building and construction, and our innovation and sustainability agenda is interlinked to our commercial agenda. We have one of the lowest carbon footprints in our industry already today, and we have years of experience in recycling, as well as renewable energy solutions that we can scale and leverage, creating values for Hydro and the society at large being part of the solutions to the global climate crisis. Having said that, we see that stakeholder expectations on climate, environmental responsibility, and social value creation will increasingly impact our access to markets, talents, investors, and government around the world. Sustainability is not only about decarbonization. Climate, environment, and social responsibility are deeply interconnected. We need to address all three to ensure that the green transition is just and results in fair and prosperous societies.
Maintaining our position as a sustainability industry leader will be key to compete in the future. We see sustainability as a key driver of profitability already today, but even more so going forward. Sustainability leadership creates commercial value through access to new markets, higher profitability, lower cost of capital, and access to the best talents. Importantly, sustainability is also about creating value to society. Our climate ambition towards 2050 is built on three pillars, delivering zero carbon products to our customers, removing carbon from our own operations, and playing our part in the transition to net zero society by reducing society's reliance on fossil fuels through developing more renewable energy storage capacity, and green hydrogen. Our environmental ambitions focus on protecting biodiversity and reducing our environmental footprint with a particular focus on eliminating landfilling or waste in the longer term.
Our social ambition is to improve the lives and livelihoods where we operate. As we aim to create industries that matter, our ambition is to create thriving, inclusive, and fair societies. To go further into these areas, I would like to invite EVP for Corporate Development, Helena Nonka, on stage.
Thank you, Hilde. It is a pleasure to be here to present the value case for our renewed sustainability, ambition, and roadmap. Throughout this Capital Markets Day presentation, you will hear from my colleagues how it translates into our business and commercial strategy and, of course, the numbers. Let me start with climate. Our climate ambition focuses on three opportunity areas, delivering net zero products to customers, becoming a net zero company, and enabling a net zero society. On net zero products, we will decarbonize our product portfolio in a market-based way by pursuing two complementary routes, circular and primary. We have clear and mature technology roadmaps for both. Our goal is to deliver first near zero circular volumes to the market already in 2022. Our Chief Technology Officer, Hans Erik Vatne, will provide more details in a minute.
In addition to helping our customers achieve their climate targets, our own operations need to become carbon-free. Our existing emission reduction target is 30% by 2030. We have now also committed to achieve net zero Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions by 2050 or earlier. We have clear technology roadmaps to achieve both sets of targets. We will also report on our Scope 3 emissions for 2021, and we will work towards setting reduction targets by the end of 2022. Finally, we have a role to play in removing or avoiding carbon emissions from the broader economy and society. Use-phase and life-cycle benefits of green aluminium are already well-known and recognized by our customers.
In addition, our energy business is a key enabler for a net zero society through increased renewable production, energy storage solutions, and replacing fossil fuels by green hydrogen in a wide range of industrial processes, including at Hydro. You will hear more about this from our energy team later. I will now invite Hans Erik to tell you about our primary and circular technology roadmaps towards net zero aluminum products.
Thank you, Helena. We are eliminating our upstream process emissions in Alunorte with fuel switch and electrification, and we also plan a pilot for hydrogen for calcination of alumina. For the hard-to-abate process emissions of smelters, we are pursuing two paths. The first one is carbon capture and storage. It's very important for us to secure the value of our existing smelters, as these are low-cost position and also have leading technology and production capabilities. For this, we want to utilize CCS. We have evaluated more than 50 different technologies within this area, and the most promising we have developed a roadmap for to take them to industrial level. The probable outcome is a combination of off-gas capture and direct air capture to fully eliminate these emissions. The second path is our proprietary HalZero technology.
This is a technology where we convert alumina to aluminum chloride before electrolysis in a process where chlorine and carbon are kept in closed loops, making this a fully decarbonized process. We've been working on this for more than five years, and we have now a plan to take these to industrial level before 2030. Collaboration with relevant stakeholders and also developing public-private partnerships will be very important to fund and scale up these activities. We are fully dependent on infrastructure like transport and storage facilities. There's also a circular path to near zero and net zero aluminum, which is the fastest way to the market. Hydro has the most advanced recycling technology and metallurgy competence in the industry, and this we use to make Hydro CIRCAL, a product that is low carbon and certified with minimum 75% of post-consumer scrap.
Even today, we could make this with 100% scrap, utilizing clean and sorted scrap. To do this in a profitable way, we need to dig deeper into the scrap pile, meaning utilizing contaminated, unsorted, and difficult scrap. To do this, we need to have good sorting technology. Today, sorting is done by X-rays, but we already have a pilot for utilizing laser, so-called laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy. Using this technology, 100% scrap, and also utilizing renewable fuel like hydrogen, direct electricity, or biofuel in our processes, we can provide zero carbon footprint products to the market. We see these technologies and also our network of recyclers as a true competitive advantage. Their proximity to scrap markets and also to our customers makes it possible for us to create value from circular business models.
Our ambition is really to provide recycled material with less than half a kilo of carbon footprints to the market within 2022. Now I hand back to Helena.
Thank you, Hans Erik. To summarize, our end markets will decarbonize at different speeds and will increasingly become decommoditized. Customers are now shifting their emission reduction focus from the use phase to the embedded emissions in the materials and the supply chain. How big a problem is aluminum from that perspective? Well, of course, it varies by industry, but if you look at a typical electric vehicle in the EU, about 25% of the emissions come from aluminum, if using the European average of 6-7 kg of CO2 per kilogram of aluminum. As a result of this shift, we expect the demand for near zero circular products to grow by around 10% annually to 2030, as the industry will struggle to meet this demand at scale. We think we will see the emergence of significant value pools in the segments.
However, this trajectory will be uneven, which is why our approach is market-based. We pursue two primary routes to capture these opportunities when and where they arise. Circular route is the fastest path towards net zero products. This is an opportunity to work with customers to reduce embedded emissions from aluminum at a relatively low abatement cost through increased use of post-consumer scrap. Our goal is to deliver first near zero circular volumes to customers in 2022 across Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions to capture this opportunity. Of course, we have the capacity to scale up and grow as we continue to shape and develop this market. Pursuing this path enabled by our technology roadmap will deliver growth and attractive returns as we decarbonize our primary value chain. It is part of our recycling strategy, which you will hear more about later today.
For the primary route, as Hans Erik explained, we work towards developing economically attractive solutions for producing zero carbon metal, both within existing operations and any potential greenfield capacity before 2050. We have a clear roadmap for getting from our current emissions levels to net zero before 2050. Our current 30% carbon emission reduction target by 2030 will be achieved through fuel switch at Alunorte, as well as greener power sourcing and energy efficiency initiatives in Aluminum Metal and Extrusion. Our roadmap from 2030 emission levels to net zero has then three main levers. Firstly, it is switching to renewable power in facilities that still rely on fossil fuels. The lion's share of our emissions from electricity in 2030 is from Qatalum and Tomago.
Rio Tinto has recently announced plans to decarbonize electricity consumption at Tomago, and if this is achieved, this would reduce Hydro's ownership emissions from electricity by 600,000 tons. For Qatalum, we engage with our joint venture partner and would of course be supportive of projects that can reduce emissions in Qatalum. Secondly, it is renewables-based hydrogen or green hydrogen. Hydro's fossil fuel consumption after 2030 will be dominated by calcination at Alunorte. Replacing natural gas with green hydrogen can reduce Hydro's direct emissions by about 1 million tons. Green hydrogen can also be used in our remelters and cast houses and has the potential to remove an additional 700,000 tons of CO2. Our Havrand business is a key enabler for this.
Finally, as you heard from Hans Erik, we have a mature technology program in place for eliminating emissions from the electrolysis process by 2050 or earlier. We are well-positioned not only to achieve our climate ambition, but to deliver value and growth in doing so. Why is that? Firstly, our recycling capabilities and solutions are the fastest and initially the most profitable way to bring near zero and circular products to customers while delivering profitable growth. Secondly, our technology roadmaps enables us to capture value from green transition in a number of ways, by capturing early mover advantage in circular solutions, protecting value of our existing primary smelters, and providing optionality for a potential carbon-free new capacity. Thirdly, we are already well-positioned in key growth segments throughout the full value chain, including downstream.
We are collaborating with customers to shape the market for greener aluminum and develop new circular business models. Finally, we already have a strong track record of partnering with research institutions and government agencies for technology development. We are well-positioned to secure access to public funding, sustainable finance, and public-private partnerships for the industrialization of decarbonization technologies. On policy and regulations, we see the Glasgow Climate Pact as particularly encouraging, as we expect it will enable the creation of strong framework conditions and a global level playing field as a basis for competitiveness, which is essential for industries and countries to reach Paris Agreement target. As Hilde said in her introduction, sustainability is not only about decarbonization. Climate, environment, and social responsibility are deeply interconnected. Our new ambition for environment focuses on biodiversity and waste.
On biodiversity, our existing one-for-one rehabilitation target of mined areas within two years has been in place since 2017. It focuses on progressive rehabilitation of areas impacted by mining in Paragominas. This rehabilitation effort is supported by scientific research conducted by the Biodiversity Research Consortium, which is a long-standing partnership between Hydro and academic institutions in Norway and Brazil that began in 2013. Acknowledging the importance of biodiversity to the economy and to the health of our planet, we see a need to lift our efforts further for our full value chain and have set an ambition to achieve no net loss of biodiversity in all new projects in Hydro.
When it comes to waste, we already have our 2030 targets to increase utilization of bauxite residue and reduce the landfilling of spent pot lining, as well as the ongoing implementations of the tailing dry backfill in Paragominas. In addition to these targets, we are introducing ambition to get as close to zero waste as possible by 2050. Firstly, we have established an ambitious roadmap to eliminate the permanent storage of new bauxite residue generated at our refinery, Alunorte, by 2050. Secondly, we are committing to end the landfilling of all other recoverable waste in our operations by 2040. In addition, we remain committed and are on track to deliver on our existing target to reduce emissions to air by 50% by 2030.
Many would agree that climate change is an existential threat that the world is facing, but so are rising inequality, poverty, and social instability. We believe we can only be successful as a business if the societies where we operate are thriving. We want to play our part in making this happen. We want to improve lives and livelihoods wherever we operate. We focus on three key levers. The first one is education. We want to equip people with knowledge and skills for future economy. Our current target is to empower 500,000 people with education and skills development by 2030, and we are on track to reach it through partnership with global organizations like UNICEF and local partnerships. For example, various education programs around our operations in Pará in Brazil. The second lever is supporting just transition.
We contribute to the economic development beyond our operations by supporting local businesses and partnering to address community needs. Here, each business sets their own targets through the engagement with their local communities to understand their requirements. For example, in Brazil, we support entrepreneurship programs for youth that have already trained more than 300 social entrepreneurs. The third lever is the responsible supply chain. Green transition will require more metals and materials, but they will need to be produced, consumed, and recycled in a responsible way. Our goal is to ensure transparency and responsible business practices throughout our supply chains. We aim to provide traceability and transparency of key sustainability data for our products to customers. In sum, our sustainability strategy and roadmap are integral part of Hydro 2025 strategy. Together, they enable Hydro to deliver profitable growth while creating value for society.
With that, I will give the word back to Hilde. Thank you.
Thank you, Helena and Hans Erik. Last year at Capital Markets Day, we set out a clear strategic agenda towards 2025, where we aim to continue to strengthen our position in low carbon aluminum while also exploring growth in new energy. This strategy leverages our competitive advantages and seize opportunities in the trends we see in the world around us. We have made considerable progress in these 12 months, while also stretching our ambitions for the years to come. Together with some of my colleagues, I would like to share an update on our execution and ambitions going forward. When it comes to continue to strengthen our position in low carbon aluminum, we focus on three key levers. Firstly, in our business, continuous improvement is our license to operate.
We must continue to focus on a safe and injury-free environment, operational excellence, as well as cost efficiency, whether markets are at all-time highs or all-time lows. Secondly, our low-carbon aluminum differentiate us and position us well to gain market share and increase margin in the years to come. We need to deliver innovative solution, develop new products, and build on our strong record of collaboration and partnership with our customers. Finally, recycling. Utilizing of post-consumer scrap is a key enablers towards a zero-carbon aluminum product. To grow in this area today, we focus across the recycling value chain from sourcing to sorting, to working with customers to deliver so-called recycling-friendly alloys. We have ambitions to double our post-consumer scrap usage by 2025, which we're all well on the way to deliver.
I'm impressed with our organization's ability to continue improving and focusing on cost discipline, even in today's strong markets. As reported in Q3, we have already reached our original 2021 target of NOK 5.1 billion, and realized NOK 5.7 billion in savings as of September. With this momentum, we have identified further upside in the overall program, and I'm therefore pleased to announce our new target of NOK 8.5 billion through 2025. Similar to the previous program, 2018 remains the baseline, and the savings achieved in 2019, 2020, and 2021 are all included in the 8.5 billion target.
The higher target is mainly enabled by Hydro Extrusions, which has increased their improvement target from NOK 1.3 billion to NOK 2.4 billion, as they have delivered ahead of plan in their main restructuring fixed cost and productivity initiatives. A competitive asset base is our license to operate, and our improvement program is our main lever to ensure that. According to CRU's cost curves, both Alunorte and our smelter portfolio are performing within first quartile position. For BNA, we remain in the first quartile, despite higher implied alumina costs in 2021. The key is operating stable at nameplate capacity as we have done throughout 2021 at Paragominas and Alunorte. Moving forward, we have projects like the fuel switch, which will improve energy efficiency and continue to support our cost position.
In aluminum metal, we have improved our relative position year on year from second quartile to first quartile, despite higher overall production costs. With our good energy coverage through long-term power contracts, we are better positioned against increases in energy costs than most competitors, pushing us down the cost curve. In addition, increased premiums, especially billet premiums in Europe, and that we have ramped up production mainly at Husnes Line B and Albras contribute to the improved position on the cost curve. Our position on the energy cost curve and on cash cost margin curve have been differentiators for Hydro in the past and still are. In addition, our high share of renewable power has been and will be a key differentiator in the years to come.
With the global carbon price of, for example, $50 or $100, we see our position in aluminum metal moving from the 25th to the 16th percentile. In addition, this would also lead to a large steepening of the cost curve following a decade of flattening, allowing for a larger gap from us to the 90th percentile, and as such, a better basis for stronger margins going forward. Given our strong starting point in bauxite & alumina and with a carbon price of, for example, $50-$100, we see a marginal improvement in our position given current energy mix. However, after the completion of the fuel switch project, the estimated saving per ton could move us to the 10th-12th percentile approximately. Also here, we see a steepening of the cost curve.
In addition to increasing the operational improvement program, we also raise our commercial ambitions towards 2025. Extrusions, Aluminium Metal, and Bauxite & Alumina have identified a total of NOK 2.5 billion in customer, product and market growth by 2025, which is NOK 1 billion higher than our previous target, driven by several factors. Firstly, we aim to increase our share of the wallet by growing above the market in key segments. We also aim to gain through our product mix and margins, where we continuously develop new products for more attractive segment and expand margins by offering advanced solutions. In terms of our greener products, we expect higher sales with a premium for low carbon and circular products.
The trends show that customers care more and more about the footprint of the materials they use, and we are pleased to see that customers will pay a premium already today. So far this year, we have seen great traction in the market for our low carbon products. We have nearly tripled our volumes compared to 2020. In addition to premium pricing, our greener offerings allow us to win contracts and grow volume which may otherwise not have been available to us. Over the next five years or so, we expect another doubling of our sales volume of greener products as we are positioning our recycling portfolio to meet the increasing demand for Hydro CIRCAL over time. Further in Hydro REDUXA, more and more of our smelting portfolio is REDUXA certified, enabling us to meet the expected demand for years to come.
Before we continue with more insight on how we position ourselves in the marketplace through both extrusion and recycling, I would like to invite our EVP of Bauxite & Alumina, John Thuestad, to share an update from Bauxite & Alumina. Green aluminum starts with bauxite and alumina, and Jonh will give you an update on our work to improve our robustness in Brazil. He will be followed by EVP of Extrusions, Paul Wharton, and then EVP for Aluminum Metal, Eivind Kallevik, who will discuss our recycling ambition.
Thank you very much, Hilde. Today I'm going to talk about something my heart is full of, the Hydro Bauxite and Alumina business. The business is based on three main pillars, operational excellence, reduction of environmental footprint, and improved social connections. The operational excellence program is based on driving the capacity in our operations in Brazil and going beyond capacity by 2025 through competent people and focus on asset integrity. On the environmental reduction, we are working on improving the biodiversity and reducing our carbon footprint. To reduce our carbon footprint, we will introduce a new energy mix. We'll introduce LNG and renewable electric energy for steam production. By 2025, we'll secure a reduction of 25%, and by 2030, a reduction of 70%. Lastly, we'll introduce hydrogen going from 2030- 2050, giving us a pathway to zero emissions by 2050.
On the biodiversity, we have already taken leadership in the industry by removing tailings from the mining operations in Paragominas. Here we are a leader in the industry. Lastly, the social connection is very important. We are then basing this program and connecting to local communities. We have done a very thorough due diligence, human rights due diligence process, and we are working to improve the lives of the people we touch every day. Let's watch this video going into more detail of our business model. Thank you.
For aluminum to make a difference in people's lives, there are many production steps in the value chain. The world needs more greener aluminum, requiring bauxite and alumina produced responsibly. Hydro's production chain begins in Brazil, where we mine bauxite and refine it into alumina in a responsible way, driven by a social, environmental conscious manner with innovative solutions. Mindful of the global sustainability expectations to producing in the Amazon, the company has been focused on tackling key challenges in positioning Hydro DNA as an industry leader. In our mining operations, we have a robust rehabilitation program with the ambition to achieve no net loss of biodiversity. This effort is being supported through research performed by a consortium of local Brazilian universities in partnership with the University of Oslo and Hydro, called the Biodiversity Research Consortium Brazil-Norway, the BRC.
We are also driving innovation through a pioneer methodology that eliminates the need for permanent tailings dams in our bauxite mine. Tailings dry backfill technology allows bauxite tailings to be returned to mined areas before they are rehabilitated, instead of being deposited in permanent storage dams.
We have also established relevant R&D partnerships, which are assessing alternatives to turn bauxite residue into a resource for different applications. Hydro B&A is committed to continuously improving our systems. Hydro Alunorte is the first alumina refinery in the world to achieve ISO 55001, which recognizes that our asset management systems have achieved all requirements set. We also have been certified by the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative. Innovation and technology have always been a key driver for our continuous improvement and sustainability. Alunorte Refinery was the first in Brazil to use pressed filter technology in large scale application. The pressed filter generates a dry residue which goes through a compaction process. The combination of these two technologies make DRS2 one of the world's most modern residue disposal system, significantly reducing the storage area.
We have also invested BRL 675 million in 2020 to increase capacity to receive, control, and treat process water, rainwater, and effluents. This investment strengthens our operations resilience to climate change, ensuring our preparedness to deal with the challenges imposed by the weather. Even though Hydro Alunorte is one of the most energy efficient alumina refineries in the world, a greener energy mix is on track to reduce CO2 emissions. The implementation of the fuel switch project, replacing heavy fuel oil with liquid natural gas, is expected to reduce the refinery's annual CO2 emissions by 700,000 tons. Adding potential energy efficiency gain calculations with a modernized electric boiler and the fuel switch, Alunorte will reduce about 1.1 million tons per year in CO2 emissions.
Understanding the importance of being a good neighbor, Hydro fosters eight social projects in Pará, where we have our B&A operations supporting local development. We also established the Hydro Sustainability Fund, a nonprofit organization that supports community-based projects. Over the past three years, more than 40,000 people have been positively impacted by our CSR activities. Hydro B&A donated BRL 20 million reais in support of local efforts to prevent and fight COVID-19. Resources were diverted for field hospitals, medical equipment and supplies, food baskets, and hygiene items. Our team in Brazil is prepared, engaged, and working hard to keep on driving Hydro B&A to the next level.
Hi there. Here we are at Phoenix Extrusions on the West Coast in the USA. We're out visiting our plants, and it's great to be here. Of course, we now have to do a virtual event for Capital Markets Day, so this is where I'm gonna do the show. Great to be here. I'm delighted to have this opportunity, albeit virtually, to update you on my business area in Hydro Extrusions. Hydro Extrusions, as you know, is by far the number one globally, with a strong presence in key markets in several regions, notably in Europe and North America. You will see the largest non-Chinese extruder after Hydro Extrusions is a sixth of the size, and after that there are many smaller extruders in our business. This is indeed a highly fragmented market, but Hydro has a clear leadership position.
At Hydro Extrusions, we're organized into four distinct business units: Extrusions Europe, Extrusions North America, serving attractive growth markets in both continents. There's Precision Tubing, delivering unique offerings and solutions to automotive and HVAC&R customers across the globe. We have Hydro Building Systems, forged in a leading European position in building systems, but also with volumes strongly growing in other markets outside of Europe, Middle East, Asia, and U.S. as some examples. You also see 2021 volumes are around 1.3 million tons. This is up from 1.1 in 2020 and is coming from interesting segments you see there. Automotive and transport of course, supported by strong material substitution effect and higher penetration of our products into e-mobility.
Industrial applications and higher value-added products in the B and C segment and of course the new growth markets in renewables, warehouse and distribution, and home working environments. These are all healthy areas for us. Beyond 2021, Hydro Extrusions is very well positioned for further growth. In summary, we're in a strong competitive position in our chosen markets, and we have clear ambition to further strengthen and grow our market positions driven by dedicated investments responding to the mega trends that you know about. Over the last year, we've announced several investment decisions which will further lift our profitability, drive sustainability, and expand our market shares. We clearly see a rise in demand for more sustainable products and the capacity to offer closed loops with our customers on process scrap. This is in B and C, it's in automotive, and it's in many, many other segments.
We already have a large global network of 20 remelters with a total production of some 1.2 million tons of recycled product every year. You see we are further expanding this remelt capacity at our plants in Navarra, Spain, Sjunnen in Sweden, and The Dalles, Oregon in the U.S. In addition, we have the pleasure today to announce that we will be building a new remelt facility adjacent to our large extrusion plant in Székesfehérvár in Hungary. This remelter will have an annual capacity of some 90,000 tons a year and will utilize fabrication scrap in the area, offer closed-loop scrap cycles for our customers, and large OEMs and tier ones that are also in the region. This we're really excited about. Then moving on to our other markets. What about e-mobility?
Hydro Extrusions is already seeing strong growth in shipments to automotive, and especially this e-mobility market. We are delivering crash management solutions, structural parts, high voltage and low voltage charging cables, and other engineered components to satisfy our customer demands. As you will be aware, continued strong growth is expected in this market in the coming years, and we are well-positioned to deliver on these expectations. We're growing our casting, extrusion, and fabrication capabilities to participate in this growth. You see here, one significant example of this is the new automotive press investment at our Suzhou plant in China. This press will be fully booked as it comes on stream in 2023. We also see rising demands from our customers related to tailored solutions and services, local supply, and short lead times.
As such, we are expanding our capacity at some of our flagship plants in unique positions in their region, namely, Nenzing in Austria and Cressona in the United States. These plants already have a strong position and profitability, and we are strengthening these plants further by increasing their capacity. Now I'd like to share with you a typical example of how we work with our numerous customers to develop alloys and solutions in attractive growth segments, and also with a clear sustainability offer. ChargeNode, I'd like to talk about. ChargeNode innovates and delivers sustainable, convenient, and large-scale charging systems for parking lots. Its patent-pending technology provides cost savings to property owners while reducing the stress on the public power grids. Customers include large property owners, housing cooperatives, hotels, and resorts. Please take a look on this video now of ChargeNode and see what they do.
At ChargeNode, we deliver a patent-pending charging technology that enables multiple EVs to share a centralized charging unit. This enables several benefits. It's scalable, as 54 parking lots can share the same central unit. It's power efficient, as the central unit consumes less power, and it's sustainable, as the system lasts for up to 20 years. We see a lot of trends in the market. The most obvious is the sustainability. We address this by having four times expected lifetime compared to competition. We use less components, and we're more power efficient. Aluminum has become a key component in the solution we provide. We need it for flexibility, sustainability, and that it's a cost-efficient solution. We partnered with Hydro to develop a duct railing system in recycled aluminum. Benefits are that it protects the cabling, it's easy to maintain, and it eliminates expensive groundwork.
In addition, we use aluminum with low carbon footprint, and that it's flexible, and it's durable. It's an unbeatable combination of function and sustainability, and it represents both our company values and the customer value that we aim to offer. As a young green tech company, we hold no old values. The aluminum selection was based on today's supply and the best meet our needs from an environmental impact point of view, sustainability, the customer needs, and the function it gives. With these criteria, aluminum is a superior material for us to work with. The use of Hydro CIRCAL gives us 75% recycled alloy, Hydro's ability to deliver a fit-for-purpose product, and this enables us to deliver a unique product offering that really wows our customers. We are really looking forward to develop our partnership with Hydro further.
Good. I hope you enjoyed that. This just shows new markets, high speed to develop a competitive solution, followed by a global footprint which we have to deliver the right quality on time. This can be a world beater in our industry. What about our presence in the huge B&C sector, which is increasingly demanding sustainable low-carbon solutions? Working directly with end customers, Hydro Extrusions is in a unique position to shape and drive the market for sustainable products. Nowhere is this more evident than in the building systems market, where Hydro Building Systems have strengthened their market position by offering CIRCAL to their customers, a product made of at least 75% post-consumer scrap. This is end of life zero carbon metal units. It's really impressive that Building Systems have delivered more than 500 CIRCAL projects since 2018.
Some recent examples are shown on the slide. One is the TECHNAL solution based on CIRCAL for the University of Bath in the U.K., and this satisfies the stringent customer requirements to deliver a sustainable and energy-efficient building. This project achieved a BREEAM Very Good standard, which is quite an impressive accolade for the team and for our client. Now on to profitability. Hydro Extrusions has been improving its EBITDA over recent years, much supported by our dedicated improvement programs. We've restructured our portfolio, closing 13 plants during 2019 and 2020, and divesting a further 5 plants. In addition, we've realized cost savings related to SG&A and procurement. The results are quite striking in the graph to the left, where we see our total portfolio of some 100 sites sorted by EBITDA margins.
Year to date 2021, we have a much larger share of plants delivering strong EBITDA margins compared to our last normal market period, which was 2018. The improved average performance is further evident in the graph to the right, where we've improved our EBITDA margin from some 6% in 2018 to close to 10% year-to-date 2021, effectively closing the gap to our peers. In summary, Hydro Extrusions continues to see strong operational improvements and further value creation opportunities as we head towards 2025. You will see here we are aiming to realize 8 billion NOK EBITDA in 2025, supported by both commercial and operational improvements.
For sure, we see continued underlying market growth towards 2025, which will support our EBITDA with close to NOK 1 billion, and we will continue to deliver on our core improvement programs, procurement, SG&A, and restructuring, as well as achieving operational improvements through our way of working, which is the Extrusion Business System, EBS. Moreover, we have a strong commercial ambition going forward, and this is linked to market share growth and margin uplift through commercial excellence and dedicated segment focus. We have clear ambition of growing faster than the underlying market in our chosen key segments. This is also much supported by our recent investments adding state-of-the-art capacity. We also believe our leadership position for green product offerings will increasingly support our market growth ambitions. Lifting profitability to NOK 8 billion, driving sustainability, this is what we're here to deliver on.
Thank you very much for listening.
Recycling will play a vital part in the transition towards the low carbon economy. We see that more and more scrap is coming back from end-of-life sources, and recycling is becoming an increasingly important source of metal, with some 35%-40% of the estimated demand increase towards 2030 to be covered by PCS. This development is further accelerated by customers demanding recycled content and low CO2 footprint, like our CIRCAL brand offers. Another example is the Rivian structural frame based on an aluminum alloy developed by Hydro that will be casted in the Henderson recycler in Kentucky.
Regulatory push and support schemes, both at the EU level and in Norway, further drive the development, such as the European Green Deal and the Green Platform Initiative in Norway, under which the Norwegian government has allocated NOK 1 billion over three years to fund enterprises and research organizations engaged in the innovation-driven green shift. Hydro is part of the AluGreen consortium, one of the major project that was granted funding back in September 2021. The AluGreen project's ambition is to explore, develop, and pilot high-value circular aluminum products based on post-consumer scrap and renewable energy. Hydro is well positioned for further profitable growth in recycling, with strong capabilities along the full recycling value chain. We do of course have in-house sorting capacity in St. Peter, Germany, and we are developing and soon to commission our LIBS sorting technology.
We have a large asset base with 25 recyclers covering Europe and North America. Also important, and in addition, we have some 2.3 million tons of primary capacity with the potential to blend in complex scrap types. Across the company, we have very strong metallurgical, technical, and commercial competencies to lead the adoption and adaptation of innovative greener products. As an example, we are increasing our HyForge capabilities by investing increased capacity in Råkvåg based on 50% consumer scrap, products that goes into demanding automotive products. As communicated at Hydro's Capital Markets Day last year, we have an ambition to grow the current recycling businesses substantially across the recycling value chain. During 2021, we have announced several projects answering to this strategy. Let me use our new greenfield recycler in Cassopolis, Michigan, as an example.
In this recycler, we will install specialized equipment allowing us to source much higher volumes of complex post-consumer scrap. It will allow us to produce a significant volume of CIRCAL, being the first one to introduce this in the U.S., based on 75% post-consumer scrap with a low CO2 footprint. In total, we will install 120,000 tons recycling casting capacity, also answering to a customer demand for conversion in this area. The project I already mentioned in Råkvåg is also a great example of how to convert PCS into high value add products. In aluminum metal, we have been able to steadily increase our EBITDA margin over the last years by focusing on how to optimize raw material inputs and increasing the use of post-consumer scrap.
Although this is a margin business, it is also very much less CapEx intensive compared to upstream businesses. Over the cycle, our aluminum recycling return on average capital employed has been much higher than Hydro's average. Of course, this provides us with a strong basis to grow in a profitable way in our recently announced projects. We do expect volume and EBITDA impacts is going to hit bottom line and figures already in 2022, and we do expect to see high internal rate of returns for these projects that we're currently implementing. The announced projects will start to impact the results already from next year, but we have already achieved an EBITDA uplift of roughly NOK 160 million this year.
This is driven by a combination of a strong market and our scrap sourcing abilities continuing to increase lower priced post-consumer scrap. Looking forward, we see that we are well on our way to reach our 2025 ambition of doubling our post-consumer intake by some 200-350,000 tons and lifting EBITDA in the range of NOK 700 million-NOK 1.1 billion.
Thank you, John, Paul, and Eivind. Our most pressing challenge is keeping our planet healthy. This is the greatest responsibility and opportunity of our time. This is how Ursula von der Leyen urged the European Parliament to back her proposal of a European Green Deal that would make Europe climate neutral by 2050. There's now a clear continued focus on reducing carbon emissions worldwide and combating global warming. The only way forward is massive electrification and decarbonization of our economies. As I said earlier, this will require not only aluminum, but also renewable power, as well as solutions such as green hydrogen to decarbonize for hard-to-abate sectors, as well as energy storage capacity. Like with aluminum, this transition creates a lot of opportunities for Hydro and for Hydro energy. As announced at CMD last year, we want to grow in new energy areas to capture this opportunity.
Our new company, Hydro REIN, will be a developer of renewable energy projects, primarily wind and solar in the Nordics and in Brazil. Our batteries unit aims to become the preferred partner for scaling and industrializing profitable battery projects in Europe. Our green hydrogen company, Hydro Havrand, will use Hydro's green offtake and 80 global locations as a springboard for global opportunities with external customers. I will now welcome the energy team, Arvid Moss, Olivier Girardot, Per Christian Eriksen, Morten Halleraker, to present these businesses more in detail.
Thank you, Hilde. The energy transition affects all of us, not least the industry sector, which represents 40% of global emissions. The good news is that when we do something, it really matters. The other good news is that we know a lot of things we have to do. We have to use more renewable power. We have to replace fossil fuels in the hard-to-abate sectors with green hydrogen, and we have to work on energy efficiency and storage solutions. The good thing is that technologies are there, but we need to build scale to get cost down. Let me first take a step into the current situation for the energy and power markets. The power markets are under stress, especially in Europe, with soaring prices, and the politicians are discussing is it possible to curb the prices. The power prices in Europe are market-based.
That means that it's based on the marginal cost of coal and gas and CO2. When we look at the development over the last few years, it's been quite enormous. Gas prices have increased from EUR 15 per MWh over the last five years, up to more than 100 in week 40. Coal prices have gone five times over the last year, and CO2 prices have increased from EUR 25 per ton in 2019 and 2020, up to more than 90 the last days. Of course, this is important for when the CO2 price increase. It drives investments into green power, which is a good thing. Higher than usual market prices is not a representation of malfunctioning markets, but it's really reflecting the underlying fundamentals.
Efficient price formation, however, requires that there is liquidity in the market and there is grid capacity in the market, and that's where we see some of the bottlenecks these days. If you take a look at the graph to the right, you see an example of the growth expectation when it comes to renewable power. It requires vast amounts, solar and wind, and that takes acreage, onshore and offshore. That can raise conflicts, so it's therefore now very important that we get fair and efficient processes to decision-making so that things can be built when time is right. The balancing of our markets will be challenging also in the years ahead due to wind and solar power coming in and not enough balancing capacity, so volatility will continue.
For Hydro, as we mentioned in third quarter reporting, we are not so much affected by these high prices, as we are well covered with long-term contracts. What this leads to, as a consequence of what you see on the right side, is really a massive development in the Nordics and in Brazil, where we are a main contributor and consumer of power. We see also that global hydrogen demand will increase substantially, and we see a substantial growth here in batteries represented by European markets. There are fantastic opportunities to participate in the growth story. When you look at our ambition, it's really to be a renewable leader enabling decarbonization of industry. As you can see to the left here, 70% of emissions globally can be addressed through electrification.
There to the left, we have our current energy competencies based on the hydropower in Norway for 116 years, the strong market operations that we have in the Nordics and in Brazil, and also the competence we have too, when it comes to regulatory measures and grid systems. All that can help into the electrification. We have established REIN as a new unit to really work on development and wind and solar projects, development, construction, ownership, to deliver on more renewable power to our own demand, but also to other industrial consumers. We have engaged into the battery value chain because that is a very interesting and fast-growing market where our competence really supports a healthy growth and healthy profitability.
We have the 30% which represent the heart of eight sectors, and where we established Hydro Havrand as a way to grow with green hydrogen. Yes, it makes a difference. If we replace gas with green hydrogen at the Norwegian smelters, we take out 100,000 tons of CO2. Roughly said, 1 GW of green hydrogen will enable a reduction of 1 million ton of CO2 in society. If we build wind and solar parks instead of coal-fired power stations, or let's say 4- 4.5 TW hour, it saves 3 million tons of CO2. If we replace gas, it's 1.5 million ton. It matters, it really contributes to decarbonization of society. Yes, we really have ambition to grow fast. We do that because we have, one, a strong platform internally to grow from.
Second, we will work with partners. Thirdly, we will seek external capital to help us grow faster than we could on our own balance sheet. Let me start on the internal platform. It's a strong competence that we have based on what we have done over decades, and also with Hydro Projects to the right here, we have a strong capacity when it comes to projects execution. This represent in total a scalable platform that the three new units can build on, and we de-risk the whole growth story by this, and we also give access to competence that these three units can pull on. Second, we work with partners, strong partners, because we see that to really make this decarbonization happen, it will require a lot of different kind of competence and a lot of capital.
Strong industrial partners will be required, and I'm happy to see that we have formed so many interesting partnerships that you will hear more about later. Thirdly, we also will seek external capital to ensure that we can have a strong focus growth in the areas where we see the strongest potential. The three units in their responsibility is really to develop the focus competence in their areas of responsibility, their technology, their markets, their business case, so that they can really be in the forefront, when discussing with customers and establishing new business opportunities. We want to grow this fast and with a risk appetite that is acceptable, and together with partners and together with investors. Now we will get a report on execution after one year, and first in line is Olivier Girardot, who is head of Hydro REIN. Here we go, Olivier.
Thank you, Arvid. Hydro REIN's strategy is at the heart of Hydro's decarbonization agenda. Our ambition is to become the preferred supplier of renewable power and other energy solutions for our industrial consumers. It starts by putting the customer at the center of what we do, working with our clients to design products and services that address their specific needs so that they can be successful in the energy transition. It can be battery energy storage systems to shape peaks and improve the reliability of the energy matrix. It's also on-site generation to optimize site utilization, reduce dependence on the grid, and provide demand response. Of course, it's about green sourcing, making renewable power more accessible to all types and sizes of industries. That renewable power, we want to source it from our portfolio of renewable assets.
Wind, solar projects that we co-develop with our partners and that we operate according to best practices. We make it available to our customers using Hydro's position in power systems, particularly our market operations, flexing the competence and the portfolio to enhance value both for our customers and our partners in the projects. Because in the world where feed-in tariffs are disappearing and renewables is now competing on an equal footing with conventional sources, it's essential to develop and optimize projects and solutions from a market perspective. Our positioning, it's as developer and operator, focusing on as early an entry into projects as possible and combining our long-term ownership strategy with a range of services towards projects and customers. We're technology agnostic, meaning that, we're currently building a portfolio of projects and assets across technologies. In Brazil, we're looking at wind and solar.
In fact, we're looking at combining these two, either at the project or the portfolio levels. We're also investigating floating solar opportunities in Pará, both pilot and industrial scale. In the Nordics, it's all about wind, of course, onshore and offshore. As communicated earlier, we're starting with Hydro as our main customer, and our ambition is for REIN to supply as much of Hydro's need as possible based on competitive solution. Our business model is developed to support all types of clients, and we see a significant growth potential outside of Hydro, particularly with energy-intensive industries. Our focus now is on execution, building substance, building robustness, and setting REIN on a course to achieve Hydro's ambitions in renewable growth.
We're well advanced on our target to invest into 1 gigawatt of projects, which we expect to complete within the first quarter of next year, rather than by the end of 2021 as we had initially envisaged. In June, we announced that we would partner with Eolus to develop a ready-to-build 260 MW wind power project in Sweden. In offshore wind, we've also announced that we would join forces with Equinor and RWE for the upcoming licensing round in the Southern North Sea. That's just the tip of the iceberg. We're screening 7 gigawatts of projects in the Nordics, more than 20 GW in Brazil. We're now working with a number of partners on maturing certain of these projects so that they can become sourcing opportunities for Hydro. We expect to sign more projects within short.
On the energy solution side, we're developing a number of pilot projects in North America and continental Europe, with a focus at this stage on energy storage system, on-site generation, and energy reduction. We've in fact initiated commissioning of our very first battery storage system, which is located at Hydro Extrusions plant in North York, Canada. We're also building the infrastructure required for us to deliver on these projects, and here again, we work with partners to ensure that we get the very best solutions for our customers. I can, for instance, mention that we have recently agreed to partner with Cognite to run a pilot to look at how we can use industrial data to optimize energy consumption.
Finally, our partners also include Havrand, Hydro's own green hydrogen venture, and my colleague Per Christian Eriksen will tell you more about how we look at joint opportunities to offer integrated solutions to decarbonize the industry. Thank you.
Thank you, Olivier. Now let me introduce you to Hydro Havrand. We will be a developer, owner, and operator of hydrogen production facilities. We will produce hydrogen to help cut emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. We will build on Hydro's potential hydrogen offtake to capture global opportunities, and we will leverage the energy and industry expertise to help other industrial players to reduce their climate emissions and supply hydrogen to mobility and maritime sectors. At COP26, hydrogen was one of the hottest topics as we need green hydrogen to reach our climate ambitions. To get there, we need ambition loop between the private sector and governments to amp up each other's climate actions. In Hydro Havrand, we are stepping up to that challenge, and we are well-placed.
Success with hydrogen starts with demand, and Hydro has this demand and the capability to fuel switch the industries. On the other hand, investments by forward-leaning industrial players needs to be de-risked, so we need ambitious government policies and predictable policy framework. We need a continuous push to develop new renewable energy as hydrogen production is power demanding. Frontrunners will need project investment support and contract for difference incentives to reduce the capital risk of falling cost curves and help kick-start the hydrogen value chain. Hydro Havrand's approach to the market is threefold. First, we will use Hydro and Speira, the former Hydro Rolling footprint, as a basis to establish hydrogen production on site. We will work through strong partnerships to achieve scale and economy of the project portfolio.
A recent example is the MOU with Shell Renewables, where we will develop projects of scale. Thirdly, we will also develop projects beyond Hydro's footprint. Now, introducing hydrogen into industrial processes goes beyond building a hydrogen production plant. Therefore, we are taking the appropriate steps to move projects forward in the right way. We are developing technical solutions, carrying out simulations, and do verification testing to ensure that hydrogen can be safely introduced into the high heat processes, while also safeguarding the quality of the process and the end product. Let me give you some examples. In Årdal, we have performed in-depth technical studies to ensure safe introduction of hydrogen into the calcination process. We define how we can efficiently and safely produce, distribute, store, and burn the hydrogen as a heat agent in the calcination process and the existing facilities.
We identify site and power infrastructure synergies and develop the third party offtake market to provide additional scale to the electrolyzer pro-project and improve the project financials. In Vetlanda, we work closely with Hydro REIN to develop a fully decarbonized energy solution. Key is the introduction of hydrogen into the aluminum production process and then getting the support of potential local battery storage and local renewable energy production from wind and solar. At Speira's facility in Holmestrand, we work to introduce hydrogen to replace the current consumption of propane. As with other developments, we work to map out the potential hydrogen demand within the region, both to local industries and mobility. In this regard, Holmestrand is well-placed. Along a main road transport corridor and in the midst of the outer Oslo fjord, close to the shipping routes to and from Oslo.
We will continue to develop our project pipeline and the company, and we really look forward to be sharing more information with you as we progress. Thank you.
Thank you for that, Per Christian. We are building a portfolio of sustainable and commercially attractive battery businesses, essentially executing the battery strategy as presented one year ago. In 2021, we have built our investment pipeline, and we are now entering a phase where capital investments will be made. Over the last year, we have prioritized business development within recycling, cell and pack solutions, and anode materials. We are early movers in battery recycling, where Hydro is well-positioned to contribute and build a valuable high-growth battery materials business. Hydrovolt, which is a 50/50 joint venture with Northvolt, is on track to commence operations at the start of 2022 according to the plan. This industrial scale pilot plant is sold out for its first year and is currently booking business for 2023.
The now-aborted joint battery initiative with Panasonic and Equinor has resulted in promising customer dialogues opening up to other battery business opportunities than pure cell production. The marine battery solutions leader Corvus Energy is executing its growth strategy, and our ownership in Corvus is strategic with a long-term perspective. We are actively pursuing several industrial investment opportunities of different size and maturity, including also high-potential next-generation battery technology. Hydro creates value within batteries by leveraging our capabilities as an industrialization partner. Credibility and ability to execute are valuable assets when an entire new European industry is built. Customer dialogues confirm that leading performance within sustainability is necessary, and our capabilities in this area represent a real competitive advantage, in particular with non-European partners. We demand robust business cases and high growth potential when we prioritize projects.
Strong teams and owners with distinct contributions are other important investment criteria. We enter early enough to be able to contribute and shape the businesses and before the case is mature enough to attract pure financial investors. We invest together with strong complementary partners. Our first investments have a strong track record, and they also represent healthy growth potential. With a selective approach, we target investments with significant potential for capital uplift. The investment frames remain as previously communicated. Fundamentally, we are developing and investing in battery businesses to create a platform for profitable industrial growth. In order to ensure the focus on the profitable part, we target three times value uplift on invested equity on average for our investments.
Actual portfolio capital uplift will dip below this target the first years of the new investments are made, and our job is to actively manage our ownership to build portfolio value and a platform for industrial growth. We have access to Hydro's full industrial capabilities and the very best competence, far beyond the dedicated batteries team only. We bring these capabilities to the businesses we develop and invest in. This is our way to help enable the energy transition and deliver valuable industrial growth.
Good day, all. It's a pleasure to spend time with you again right before the festive season for the event that I look the most forward to every year, the possibility to give you an update on all the exciting value-generating initiatives we have been working on over the latter years. My good colleagues have now presented our strategic agenda, and I will now translate this into cash flows and returns, and also expand on our profitability agenda, including our financial priorities and targets. Since 2019, the title of my presentation has been Lifting Cash Flows and Delivering Returns, and these remain our main priorities. It is therefore especially satisfying to be able to show good progress this year and also to be able to increase our distribution to you, our shareholders.
We have lifted profitability across all our business areas and improved our returns, resulting in a ROACE of around 13% over the last year. Our total shareholder return over the past 12 months of 67% has exceeded the average of our closest peer group, including both upstream and downstream peers. We are now also aiming to increase our distribution significantly for 2021, pending final allocation and also annual general meeting approval. Our cash generation from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2021 was NOK 9.5 billion, much supported by strong markets and also good improvement program performance. This, together with the reduced pension liabilities and cash proceeds from the divestment of Hydro Rolling, contributes to the reduction of adjusted net debt and net debt positions from NOK 23 billion and NOK 8 billion, respectively, to NOK 11 billion and NOK 1 billion.
Given the current market environment and speed of our improvement efforts, we expect a positive net cash position by the end of 2021. These developments have resulted in an adjusted net debt over Adjusted EBITDA of 0.6 times, well below our targeted maximum of 2 times, which, in line with our financial policy, allows us to increase our shareholder distribution, but also positions us well to deliver on our growth strategy in the years to come. Our current robust financial position is much shaped by our financial framework, which, after last year's amendments to our dividend policy, increasing our targeted payout ratio from 40% to a minimum of 50% over the cycle, is largely unchanged from the last two years.
This includes a high focus on financial strength and flexibility, targeting an investment-grade credit rating over the cycle, clear principles for capital allocation with sustaining CapEx benchmarks and strategic modes as a guiding for allocation, and finally, performance targets enabling roadmaps to returns at least above cost of capital for each business area over the cycle. This year, we have visualized another layer of our financial framework, namely our sustainability position. After working hard to capitalize on our strong sustainability position in an industry context, we are finally now seeing it becoming a strong differentiator at an increasing pace. This comes both through impacting access to markets, revenue uplift, and allowing access to market segments that will grow faster than industry average.
It also comes through lowering our cost of debt through green financing, and also impacting cost of equity through ensuring the company is investable for an increasing amount of portfolios with a strong ESG footprint. This development is especially encouraging for us in Hydro, as we have talked about this having to become a differentiator for such a long time. Hydro has a long history of being transparent, and we are said to be the first company in the world to publish an environmental report more than 30 years ago in 1989. We are proud to still be recognized in this area, as it has developed over the years into today's environmental, social, and governance reporting based on legal requirements as well as globally recognized reporting standards. Being transparent about our ESG approach and results are important to Hydro.
That includes our success stories as well as our challenges, and we are pleased that ESG analysts recognize our approach, and that they agree that we are among the leaders within ESG, and some even say that we are the leader within our sector. Worth noting is our inclusion on the DJSI index since 1999, our number 1 sector rank at V.E., double A rating and top 10% on MSCI, top mining company on climate transition at BloombergNEF, 96 percentile on EcoVadis, and number one among 100 Norwegian-listed firms at The Governance Group. We know that we need to strive hard to keep that position, and we will build on our history and experience to continue this work, and we have set targets today helping us to do just that. The EU is leading the way in sustainability.
The ambitious emissions reduction targets in the Green Deal and the holistic approach to sustainability sets the bar for companies. The EU taxonomy has been established as a vehicle to finance the transition and to shift capital flows towards more sustainable activities, with the ultimate goal to reduce the cost of capital for companies that are well-positioned for this transition. So far, the taxonomy defines a number of economic activities that may qualify as environmentally sustainable, and they are called eligible under taxonomy. If they meet the technical criteria set for substantial contribution and do no significant harm, they will be aligned under the taxonomy. For Hydro, some of our activities are covered by the taxonomy and some are not, but some of them might be included in the future. Manufacturing of primary aluminium, secondary aluminium, recycling, and renewable power generation are covered.
However, our activities within bauxite and alumina are excluded, and also the extrusion process itself is not covered, and we only include the secondary aluminum production and recycling part of our extrusion operations. Due to our large portfolio of renewable-based melters and metal from recyclers, we believe our performance will be in the high end of the range compared to global aluminum peers. Some analysts have noted early preliminary observations that initially alignment for most covered companies in our segment will be below 10%. The regulation may still be subject to changes, and we expect there to be further clarifications and interpretations during 2022. Our initial analysis, based on half-year 2021 figures, indicate an eligible share of 40%-50%, with aligned share between 22% and 27% for revenue.
For CapEx, we estimate an eligible share of around 50%, with an aligned range between 30%-35%. The aligned estimates for revenue and CapEx include most of our primary and secondary aluminum production in Europe, as well as our Norwegian power production activities. However, they exclude most of our production outside of Europe. If we take a closer look at our CapEx profile going forward from a taxonomy perspective, we expect that the aligned share will be higher, reflecting increasing investments into recycling investments to decarbonize our portfolio and other aligned activities. The range for the period 2022-2025 is estimated to be between 40%-50%, dependent on whether we will be able to include our investment into the Alunorte fuel switch project and batteries.
How investments are made will also impact the eligibility, as, for examples, investments into non-consolidated minority-owned assets are not included. We expect even further clarity on this framework in the years to come, and we will work hard to influence that the taxonomy actually incentivizes switching to low-carbon electricity and reducing production emissions. In order to be able to benefit from the lower cost of capital enabled by sustainability, we are continuing to develop our sustainable financing framework that will increase our range of green and sustainable financing products. While green financing is specifically related to green projects or investments, sustainable financing products are linked to Hydro's ESG KPIs and can be used for general corporate funding purposes. Hydro has a track record of utilizing green and sustainable loans to finance activities.
Examples include our RCF, which was refinanced in 2019, that has a direct link to our climate reduction KPI, and the first green loan in 2019 for the water treatment facility at Alunorte. Work is also ongoing on a sustainability-linked club loan to finance the Alunorte fuel switch project. In addition to the financing activities mentioned, Hydro placed its first green bank deposit in November this year, securing a premium over conventional deposit rates. The bank uses the deposit proceeds to invest in environmentally beneficial projects and initiatives. Finally, there is a large public funding for projects aiming to deliver on ESG improvements, and we have a good track record of attracting public funding to such projects as the Karmøy Technology pilot was a good example of.
In the 2026 time frame, we aim to spend around NOK 2 billion in decarbonizing investments to enable our zero carbon targets, and this will increase significantly if we are to pilot these initiatives on industrial scale. Here public funding will be a key enabler, as with the Karmøy Technology pilot. Going forward, we are also continuously monitoring market developments in the area of sustainability with the aim of identifying new banking products that can be added to our portfolio. In addition to green and sustainable loans and bonds, we are evaluating various trade finance, FX, and hedging solutions being developed. Hydro sustainable financing framework will be directly linked to our medium to long-term sustainability strategy and will provide an advantage in terms of access to and cost of capital.
We will ensure ongoing compliance and alignment with the latest available standards and principles, including Green Bond Principles and EU Taxonomy. If we then move over to the capital allocation from a broader portfolio perspective, our capital allocation continues to be prioritized based on strategic modes. We continue to sustain and improve our upstream operations to ensure robust cash flows servicing our shareholders and return-seeking investments for the downstream and new growth areas. Return-seeking capital allocated upstream will be used to maintain or improve our position on the cost curve. We continue to improve the carbon footprint from our operations, and the fuel switch project will be an important return-seeking project in Bauxite and Alumina to reach our climate ambition, in addition to our newly communicated initiatives in aluminum metal. We also continue to make capacity investments in Extrusions to make our roadmap to NOK 8 billion more robust.
As in last year, our return-seeking and growth capital will be allocated to organic and inorganic selective growth in recycling, extrusions, and batteries. Optimizing our capital allocation is my main priority, and the CapEx outlook can be more or less divided into three categories: sustaining, return-seeking, and growth CapEx. During the period 2022- 2025, about 50% of CapEx is sustaining, much of which is allocated upstream. The largest projects include moving into a new mining area at Paragominas, continued replacement of the pipeline transferring bauxite from Paragominas to Alunorte, and water management project in Brazil. In addition, we have asset integrity and lifetime extension investments in aluminum metal. For example, the SU3 line at our Sunndal smelter, making it robust for decades to come. We continue to benchmark our sustaining CapEx to peer averages, and we set targets on the back of this.
In the return-seeking and growth category, we have included investments which are necessary to deliver on the improvement program and commercial ambitions in aluminum metal and extrusions. About 30% of the CapEx from 2022 to 2025 is return-seeking CapEx, while the remaining 20% is growth CapEx. Return-seeking and growth CapEx are fully funded by Hydro cash flow, and projects are evaluated based on strong business case and expected competitive return in a portfolio context. The largest projects include investing in new presses to increase capacity and improve market position in the U.S., Europe, and China, particularly targeting the automotive segment. Furthermore, we have investments in new recycling plants in Michigan, U.S., and Hungary. These will add capacity and enable further use of post-consumer scrap.
We will also invest to expand capacity and further use of post-consumer scrap in our existing plants in Sweden, Spain, and in Germany. Investments in batteries have so far been done in partnerships with other industrials, where investment amounts will reflect ownership share. Compared to last year, we have also added R&D investments to reduce CO2 emissions in our aluminum metal portfolio. Finally, we have REIN and Havrand, which are not included in our CapEx guidance. Our strategy for these investments requires limited Hydro cash. The external equity injections based on capital raises in the respective companies allocated to the specific project special purpose vehicles will impact Hydro's consolidated CapEx, but not our cash flow. Non-recourse project financing at SPV level, which will cover the majority of investments in the REIN and Havrand, is targeted to not impact Hydro's balance sheet. Let's look at the updated CapEx forecast.
For 2021, we estimate NOK 7 billion in investments. NOK 1 billion-NOK 1.5 billion lower than the NOK 8.5 billion we guided for in Q1, and close to the NOK 7.5 billion we guided in Q3. The difference is mainly related to somewhat lower sustaining CapEx and periodization of projects in return seeking and growth CapEx, which are now moved to 2022. We had anticipated a total CapEx level of NOK 9 billion-NOK 10 billion in the period 2022-2025, excluding REIN and Havrand. We are now anticipating NOK 11 billion for 2022, which includes the NOK 1 billion-NOK 1.5 billion rollover from 2021. For 2023-2025, we expect NOK 10 billion. These figures include the negative effects from the current inflationary environment.
Sustaining CapEx levels are expected to be around NOK 6 billion-NOK 6.5 billion annually in the period 2023-2025, and around NOK 6.5 billion for 2022. Return seeking CapEx is estimated to be NOK 2 billion-NOK 2.5 billion per year in the period 2023-2025, and in 2022, we expect to invest NOK 2.5 billion. Growth CapEx includes projects in batteries and recycling, and investments in these areas are estimated to be NOK 1 billion-NOK 1.5 billion per year, or in total, NOK 3 billion-NOK 4.5 billion for recycling and NOK 2.5 billion-NOK 3 billion for batteries during the period 2022-2025. It is also worth mentioning that inorganic growth in line with our strategic moves could come in addition to the CapEx guidance, which is visualized here.
Since Investor Day 2019, optimizing net operating capital has been one of our top priorities, and we are focused on reducing inventories across all business areas and optimizing material flow from raw material to finished goods. This gave good results, reducing inventories both in terms of absolute levels and days. At the end of 2020 and through 2021, inventories have actually been running at levels lower than what we would recommend on an ongoing basis, reflecting the very tight markets and supply chain shortages. We have been working to improve supply chain robustness without this resulting in significant increases so far. On the other hand, what has brought absolute inventories up during the year is a sharp increase in prices on all our products.
Sensitivities to price and currencies explains a lift in NOK 5 billion and will explain the increase from NOK 14 billion in Q3 to NOK 19 billion in Q3 2021. Looking into 2022, the developments will continue to be impacted by prices to a large extent as high price volatility could continue. However, on the physical side, we should expect some increases as we increase physical safety stock levels, mitigate supply chain risks where necessary, in addition to ramping up new production within exclusions and recycling. Optimizing capital allocation allows us to offer competitive and predictable shareholder distribution to our investors throughout the cycle. In 2021, Hydro's board of directors decided to increase the target ordinary dividend from 40% to a minimum of 50% of adjusted net income over the cycle, maintaining the minimum level of NOK 1.25 per share.
During the period from 2014- 2020, we have delivered on the policy by returning an average dividend payout ratio of 74%, translating to an average dividend yield over the past six years of 3.1%. In light of our robust balance sheet and strong financials for 2021, the board of directors now aim to pay 70%-80% of 2021 underlying net income, either as extraordinary dividends or a combination of extraordinary dividends and share buybacks. Final distribution for 2021 will be proposed at release of fourth quarter in February 2022 and proposed and approved by the annual general meeting in May 2022. If we then move over to our improvement and return ambitions, then our value creation journey rests upon three key building blocks, the cost improvement program, our commercial ambition, and our strategic growth initiatives.
Without executing these, it will be difficult to meet our profitability targets and maintain our relative position on the cost curve. I will now dive a bit into the details of the program. If we start with operational excellence, we see additional savings in bauxite and alumina from further improving the energy mix and the implementation of the Alunorte fuel switch project, in addition to better caustic soda consumption performance. In aluminum metal, it consists of continuous improvements in technical production parameters in the smelters, such as raw material consumption and current efficiency. Further, several new initiatives have been identified in aluminum metal, including efforts to reduce metal costs through increased scrap usage in the Norwegian smelters, debottlenecking to lift cast house capacity, and measures to increase agility in a volatile market environment by improving product mix flexibility. Net fixed cost improvements come mainly from aluminum metal and extrusions.
As the fixed cost efforts in bauxite and alumina are more than offset by the higher cost of moving into a new mining area. In aluminum metal, this includes ambitions to reduce fixed cost at plants, such as automation and other efficiency projects, however also a sizable amount in above plant costs. For extrusions, there are several large cost out programs which contribute, including the newly strengthened business system improvements. These ensure that all waste and opportunities in processes are captured based on the philosophy of continuous improvements. Corporate staffs also contribute with further savings in the years to come, primarily within the global business services. The final lever of our improvement programs is procurement and other, where the target from last year has more than doubled.
The increase is driven by further improvements identified in extrusions, as they have rolled out a broad procurement initiative resourced to aggressively deliver savings in the coming years. If we then move over to lever two in our value creation journey, the commercial initiatives are highlighted here in purple. Unlike the improvement program, these initiatives are highly market dependent. The ambitions we set today are based on our current market outlook. The main driver of our commercial ambition is extrusions, where ambitions consists of gross increases in net added value and growth above market. For both aluminum metal and extrusions, these figures include value uplift from our greener brands. We have also identified value uplift potential in BNA through premium pricing for our Alunorte alumina. In order to deliver on these improvements, some investments are necessary.
In a total, we expect the remaining cost improvements to require around NOK 1 billion per annum in the period 2022-2024. While the commercial ambitions will also require around NOK 1 billion per annum. Finally, in lever three, our strategic growth initiatives, then recycling aims for an EBITDA uplift of NOK 0.7-NOK 1.1 billion per year. While for batteries, we have moved from the 2025 EBITDA target, which is not viewed as realistic with the decision to not pursue the JBI, to a target of 3x value uplift on invested equity. Let's then finalize with our profitability roadmaps, where we will go through what Hydro and each business area will do in order to achieve at least the 10% target, and what are the key upside and downside risks.
At the end of the third quarter, we had around NOK 84 billion in capital employed, with almost 60% allocated upstream, and a quarter in extrusions. The returns in the period 2015-2020 have been driven mainly by a challenging market upstream, in addition to the Alunorte embargo, and returns have ranged from 1%-10%, reflecting that 60% of capital employed is allocated to cyclical upstream businesses. However, as we have seen throughout today, there have been some developments over the latter years which could allow one to be a bit more optimistic about future returns than what might have been the case some years ago. That being said, in respect of the industry cyclicality, we will plan for what makes sense in both historical margin scenarios, as well as spot scenarios.
Let's look at the scenarios that show Adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, and ROACE potential after we have delivered on the planned improvement measures, and with different pricing scenarios in 2025. These scenarios are not forecasts, but a simplified indicative long-term potential based on our communicated sensitivities. In the additional information, you will find a detailed description of the assumptions used for these calculations, as well as a list of additional factors that will influence the results positively or negatively, and are not taken into account here. We have used adjusted EBITDA Q3 last 12 months as a starting point, where we are currently at approximately 13% ROACE. If we adjust the prices further to current spot prices, ROACE increases to 27%. At 5-year average, we see a ROACE of 10%, and at CRU price expectations, we see a ROACE of 20%.
This indicates that our returns are very much dependent on the market and macro developments driving prices, but also that our target over the cycle are realistic and more robust than last year. When it comes to further upside from the improvement potential, I'm very happy to see the green traction of our greener products, Hydro CIRCAL and Hydro REDUXA. We have also made some key investments to increase recycling capacity to support further growth in this area, and I believe that our sustainability focus will be a key differentiator in the years to come, also from a returns perspective as it strengthens our long-term position. In addition, in line with the capital allocation framework, we will continue to review our portfolio to identify non-core and non-performing assets, and will only be executing on growth projects with high return potential.
On the risk side, market and macro development are of course key, including trade restrictions. Operational disruptions, project execution, ability to deliver on our improvements may also reduce the potential. In addition, we are expecting inflation pressure negatively impacting our costs, particularly in extrusions. We have also identified adjusted EBITDA potential and cash flow potential using the same logic. The cash flow potential is after the total CapEx, as well as the dividend floor commitments to the shareholders, indicating the cash available for either further growth or additional shareholder returns. For us to reach the overall Hydro return target of 10%, every business area has to contribute by delivering on or above their differentiated cost of capital.
If we start with Bauxite and Alumina, with 25% of Hydro's capital employed and a long-term nominal cost of capital of around 10%-11%, they have managed to achieve returns of 5% on average since 2016. The low returns were much attributed to challenging alumina market, the embargo situation in 2018, and a number of operational challenges. In 2021, Alunorte has been running at nameplate capacity, which is key in order for B&A to deliver above its cost of capital. Our main priority in B&A is to maintain production at nameplate capacity for both Alunorte and Paragominas, and we see that with our improvement efforts, this will take us to a ROACE of 7% if the PAX is at $278 per ton.
However, when we look at the return range driven by different market scenarios, then this varies between 7% up to towards 27% with CRU at 15 and spot being at 27. Optimizing sustaining CapEx is also an important priority given relatively large sustaining CapEx needs in this capital-intensive industry. Our tailings dry backfill project is important as it is expected to reduce sustaining CapEx with BRL 2 billion. The new mining area at Paragominas will open Q2 2023, which has further upside potential from fleet optimization. In addition, as mentioned earlier, BNA has made the final bid decision for the fuel switch project, aiming to substitute fuel oil at the refinery with LNG. This project will not only reduce emissions, but also cut energy costs.
Commercial excellence is also high on the Bauxite and Alumina agenda as we continue to shift the portfolio over to Platts index and to optimize our external sales portfolio, achieving premium pricing for our products. Just as we are seeing an increased customer interest for low carbon aluminum, we believe that this will become increasingly normal in the alumina market also. In addition to risk of operational disruptions and negative market developments, regulatory and country risks are high in Brazil, emphasizing the importance of the work we are doing to mitigate these. If we then move downwards in the value chain, then aluminum metal accounts for around 34% of Hydro's capital employed, with additional thirteen percent allocated to metal markets. With 10%-11% nominal cost of capital, aluminum metal reached an average return of 7% since 2016, below the target.
However, if you look at Q3 last twelve months, ROACE reached 20%, highlighting the impact of the recent strong markets and price developments. Metal markets, as a separate reporting area, has delivered very good returns of 21%, well above their cost of capital of 7%-8%, reflecting good results and profitable growth in recycling, combined with a relatively small capital employed. Over the last year, a number of key investment decisions have been made to increase the recycling capacity in the portfolio to support further growth. Going forward, the improvement measures will lift the weighted ROACE for aluminum metal and metal markets from the Q3 last twelve months ROACE of 20%- 24%. In different market scenarios, ROACE will be between 6% at last five-year average to 38% using spot.
The wide ROACE spread indicates high sensitivity to the LME, currency, and product premiums. When it comes to further potential, this includes commercial differentiation, including our greener brands, Hydro CIRCAL and Hydro REDUXA, as well as further attractive opportunities within recycling, portfolio optimization, as well as continued efforts in digitization and automation to increase efficiency. In addition, the current high CO2 prices also indicate a significant uplift in CO2 compensation with current CO2 compensation framework. On the risk side, in addition to the market and operational performance, our relative cost position on the cost curve remains key. In our simplified scenarios, we assume that our relative position improves with the improvement measures and could be further enhanced if we get carbon pricing in key markets. However, if our competitors run their own improvements at the same time, our position may not necessarily change to the same extent.
Furthermore, regulatory and country risks are also important here, especially when it comes to Brazil and Qatar. Extrusions account for 28% of Hydro's capital employed. Since 2017, Extrusions has delivered a ROACE of 8% in line with the nominal cost of capital. However, if we look at Q3 last twelve months in Extrusions, then they have achieved a ROACE of 12%, significantly above the average 2017 to 2021 last twelve months and the cost of capital. Looking at the ROACE potential, the identified improvement measures will lift Q3 last 12 months ROACE from 12%-18%, well above the targeted cost of capital of 7%-8%. Results in Extrusions are not directly driven by the LME price, but are dependent on the demand developments for the aluminum products as such, as well as macroeconomic stability and GDP growth.
The further upside for extrusions includes increasing focus on operating at fixed costs, partly driven by the continuous portfolio review, and Extrusion Business System, as well as investments to support growth in attractive markets and overall strong market demand, including greener product pricing. On the risk side, in addition to market and operational performance, the key risk for Extrusions is inflation pressure and the ability to meet customer expectations, which is a real prerequisite in the attractive premium growth markets, such as automotive. Finally, moving to our Energy business area. Energy accounts for 10% of Hydro's capital employed. The Energy business area has seen a ROACE of 15% since 2016, well above the cost of capital of 6%-7%. However, the alternative market price for Energy assets are above our book values, resulting in a market price ROACE around cost of capital.
In 2021, we received an EBITDA uplift mainly due to new external and internal contract portfolio, and current adjusted EBITDA and cash flow is close to our targeted improvement ambition. Further upside in the traditional Energy operations could come from additional growth opportunities, commercial and operational improvements, and stronger energy markets on the back of increasing demand for renewable energy at a high pace. On the risk side, markets could always go in another direction, and we are exposed to regulatory and framework conditions, including tax. When it comes to the new growth areas, we believe they represent a significant upside from a valuation perspective as we build substance across the different ventures. In the batteries business, we have seen 4.6 times return on invested capital so far, and on the targeted investment levels of NOK 2.5 billion-NOK 3 billion, we target minimum three times.
From an accounting perspective, one should be aware of the following for REIN and Havrand. The new holding company for both Havrand and REIN will be fully consolidated on Hydro's P&L and balance sheet, and EBITDA will reflect full organizational costs and project development costs. The special purpose vehicles under each holding company will be reflected as equity accounted investments, and therefore presented as share of net income on the P&L. Investments made by the holding companies into underlying assets will be reported as consolidated CapEx, while external equity raise will be shown as equity injection, part of financing cash flow in Hydro's accounts. Thus, you should expect the new initiatives to have a limited cash and debt impact overall, however, with full impact on the CapEx and equity injection lines.
We expect limited impact on our key financial metric, adjusted net debt to Adjusted EBITDA, but ROACE will be negatively impacted in the initial phase until the underlying investments are operational. To conclude, I would like to go through our guidance for 2022. In Bauxite and Alumina, we expect Alunorte to continue to run at nameplate capacity also in 2022. In Aluminium Metal, we expect liquid production at 2.2-2.3 million tons, and the production level in recycling is expected to be roughly 580,000-600,000 tons. In Extrusions, there is less visibility. However, we expect 2022 volumes to be broadly in line with overall market growth expectations, and CRU estimates growth of 6% for the general extrusion demand in both Europe and North America.
The CRU estimate is based on auto demand rebounding in the second half of 2022, and it is worth noting that there is additional uncertainty due to the Omicron virus. For Energy, we expect production at normal levels in 2022. The production level after the Liasa transaction is 9.4 TWh. It is also important to remember that we have entered into integrated margin hedges for aluminum, currency, and raw materials in the years 2022- 2024, as shown on the slide here. Given the strong market margins in a historical perspective supporting our ROACE target, we may continue building our position for 2024 up towards the 20%-25% threshold. With that, I would like to give the word back to you, Hilde.
Thank you, Pål . Let me round off this year's Capital Markets Day by summarizing what makes Hydro an attractive investment opportunity. We have a strong asset base, well positioned within the first quartile on the cost curve for both bauxite, alumina, and aluminum metal. A large part of the smelter portfolio is based on renewable energy that will have an increasing competitive advantage when carbon cost is priced into the products. Operational robustness in Brazil has been a main priority. We have made important steps during the last years. We have particularly focused on strengthening the integrity of the assets, as well as improve our sustainability position. We have a culture of driving continuous improvement in Hydro, focusing on operational excellence and cost discipline.
We have successfully delivered on the ambitious improvement program launched in 2019, and we have once again increased our target to NOK 8.5 billion by 2025. We have a world-class extrusion system in Hydro, well positioned after impressive improvements and restructuring effort as well as commercial positioning during the last years. You heard Paul Warton, EVP for Extrusions, presenting an EBITDA target of NOK 8 billion by 2025. Our portfolio in extrusion is positioned in attractive growth segments such as automotive and building and construction, where the demand for low carbon aluminum is expected to grow as our customers are setting ambitious sustainability targets. We are already well positioned with our low carbon products. Customers choose Hydro because our certified products have among the lowest CO2 footprints in the market.
We expect to double the volumes of our certified low carbon products by 2025, and we will continue to decarbonize our product portfolio towards zero carbon products in line with the pull from the market. Recycling is one of our main growth areas, where we expect higher volumes, strong margin development and continued high returns. Based on our new technology paths, we can be in the market with near zero carbon products based on 100% post-consumer scrap already next year. We have high expectations for returns on equity from the new companies, REIN and Havrand, which targets markets with high growth potential. In addition, we have seen strong returns on our invested equity so far in batteries in the battery business. Hydro's ambition is to pay attractive dividends to shareholders. Over the past 12 years, Hydro has paid its annual dividend based on the cyclicality of our industry.
We prioritize maintaining our investment grade rating, and we are a stable dividend stock. We aim to pay out a minimum of 50% of adjusted net income over the cycle with a floor of 1.25 NOK per share. In light of the strong financial performance this year and reflecting our robust balance sheet, the board aims to propose a payment of 70%-80% of adjusted net income for 2021. Finally, I would like to highlight our sustainability position. We see sustainability as a key driver for our positioning going forward. We have now identified concrete roadmaps towards our ambition of net zero carbon products as well as net zero carbon company towards 2050 or earlier. In addition to our climate targets, we have strengthened our ambitions to protect biodiversity and eliminate waste from our operations.
Just as importantly, we want to improve the lives and livelihoods where we operate. Hydro's DNA is about creating industries that matter. Our values guide our leadership, demonstrating care, courage, and collaboration. Moving forward, we offer our shareholders a strong foundation and a clear strategic direction for value creation based on sustainable growth. Thank you for joining us in this year's Capital Markets Day, and we look forward to hearing from you in the Q&A which begins shortly.
Welcome to the Q&A with our CEO, Hilde Merete Aasheim, and our CFO, Pål Kildemo. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Please ensure that your line is unmuted locally. You'll then be advised when to go ahead with your question. The first question today comes from the line of Jason Fairclough calling from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is unmuted.
Yep. Good morning, Hilde. Good morning, Pål . Thanks very much for the presentation. Could we please talk about primary metal? You mentioned that, based on historic returns, this business would not attract capital, so it's ROACE is below your cost of capital. If we look more recently, actually, it's up at 20% plus. I guess my question is, can primary metal attract capital? How do you think about the brownfield and greenfield optionality in that business? Then what gets you to spend on new smelters? Do we need to see prices at this level for one year, for two years, for five years? How do you think about that?
Thank you, Jason, for that question. Well, as we have talked about over the last year, the return on primary has been low due to the fact of the capacity that was built up in China over the years with much lower CapEx than what we in the Western world were investing in terms of particularly greenfield. What we have been focusing on over the last year is really to get creep and improve, let's say the profitability from existing.
As I talked about in my presentation earlier today, we might see a shift in terms of the supply side, particularly with the climate focus, let's say, also now influencing the Chinese capacity. Having said that, we are still sort of cautious in the sense that to invest in the new smelter technology now, it would not be right to invest in technology that has carbon in the process. That's why we are focusing now to decarbonize existing.
We are focusing on developing new technology which could be available for greenfield. Obviously it has to be profitable. We have to see then that we see the pricing of carbon into the price picture. While waiting for that, we will focus on recycling because here we see both profitability as well as sustainability. We see the large potential in our recycling efforts simply because we do have the capability. We have developed sorting technology. We have the competence in terms of alloying in order to turn more difficult scrap into good products.
Okay. Thank you, Hilde. Maybe just to follow up, if I could, just in terms of the dividend, you've talked about a 70%-80% payout. I think historically you said 50% payout through the cycle. If we think about the split, between the regular dividend and the special capital return, would we call 50% regular and everything else special? People are gonna care on this, I think.
Yeah. Thank you, Jason. I think this is Paul here. For now, we're indicating an absolute payout range. The board will get back to the split both between ordinary and extraordinary, but also potential split between extraordinary and share buybacks at the final Q4 allocation.
Okay. Thanks both. Thanks, Pål . Thanks, Hilde.
The next question comes from the line of Krishan Agarwal calling from Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. My question is more on the hedging side, where you have close to, you know, 450 or 490,000 tons of hedging in aluminum for 2022 and 2023. Should we assume that, you know, 500,000 ton is probably a soft target on the upper end of the hedging for annualized volumes? 2024 volume hedging can also go up to that level.
Thank you. I'm sorry the line was a bit bad, but I think I got your question. It was related to hedging and what to expect in the years to come after 2023. What we said when we on the future hedging for 2021, 2022 and 2023 is that the level that we have been hedging at between 20%-25% is the top of what we would secure so that we remain exposed to the upside on the majority of our volumes. For 2024, as you see from our slide, we have hedged around 20,000 tons.
Given the continued strong margins and also ability to lock in prices well above return requirements and historical profitability, we could evaluate increasing that up towards the same levels as you see for 2023.
Okay. Thanks a lot.
The next question comes from the line of Daniel Major calling from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Yeah, thanks for questions. A couple of just questions on some of the sensitivities in the presentation on slide 72. What's the approximate range of realized premiums you have embedded in those sensitivities? Is that based on the Q3 or is that based on an assumption?
Yeah. Thanks, Dan. When it comes to the premiums that are included for the last 12 months, it is realized premiums. The same, of course, goes for spot, then it's closer to what we're seeing in the spot market as we speak. For the other scenarios, it reflects what we've seen over the latter years and also CRU expectations. Let me get back with the exact details on premiums as a follow-up on this.
Okay, great. Yeah, just sort of what's embedded in that.
Yeah.
-fourteen, consensus-based scenario. That'd be great. Thanks. Then the next question, it's on slide 40 about the commercial ambition. Can you. Sorry, that's recycling. Sorry, not slide 40, but the commercial ambition. How much have you realized so far of your total target, and how much associates with extruded products?
Of the commercial ambition, we have realized around NOK 1.1 billion. We have NOK 1.4 billion left to deliver. The second one was how much of extrusion? Extrusion has NOK 1.1 of those NOK 1.4 left to deliver.
Okay, thanks. Just to follow up on that, how much is the green aluminum premium driving that 1.4 number?
It's a good question. Of course, as you see, on the chart that we've created, we've tried to shade out a certain percentage of the graph. It drives a not insignificant amount. As earlier, we don't want to give the exact number to divide by tons because it is not a commodity market, and we want to keep the pricing power here.
Okay, great. I'll let someone else have a go. Thanks.
The next question comes from the line of Jatinder Goel calling from Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. A couple of questions from my side as well. First one, maybe for you, Paul. If you assume everything else on spot, what aluminum price will get you to 10% return on capital target, assuming all 2025 improvements are delivered? I'm just trying to gauge, do you really need to hedge on an ongoing basis, or how low do aluminum prices need to go if you manage to deliver all your improvements?
Yeah. Jatinder, I unfortunately haven't done that calculation before coming into this meeting. With the provided sensitivities, et cetera, it should be not too difficult to calculate back if you keep all the other elements as of spot. Let's follow that up with IR after this call.
Sure. No worries. Second question on REIN and Havrand. Is the aim to eventually own more than your internal requirement of 10 TWh and 4 GW respectively, to make a commercial difference to Norsk Hydro? Otherwise, it would effectively become a wash, like the energy business might be if you end up using everything for yourself that you own.
Sorry, could you repeat that again, Jatinder?
On REIN and Havrand, is your aim to own more capacity than you need for internal purposes that you have highlighted 10 TWh for REIN and 4 GW for Havrand? Otherwise, how will it add commercial value to Norsk Hydro if you own what you effectively use for your own business purposes?
That is the ambition to go beyond the 10. That's the 10 is a good basis to start and to have demand for renewable energy developed by REIN. Yes, the ambition is higher than that.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
Before we move to the next question, please be reminded, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from the line of Ioannis Masvoulas calling from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hello, good morning. Three questions from my side. The first related to your 2030 CO2 reduction roadmap and the 30% target. Can you give us an indication on the required CapEx to deliver this objective, and how much of that is included into your NOK 10 billion annual CapEx through 2025? And then the second question, can you give us an update on the European CO2 indirect compensation? Has this been ratified by the Norwegian government? And can you provide an update on potential compensation on spot carbon prices? And lastly, just going back to REIN, it feels to me that the guidance today that you're planning to look beyond the 10 TWh of internal needs and serve external customers feels quite open-ended.
Can you give us a bit of an indication on how big this opportunity is and whether it could be higher than the 10 TWh of internal needs? Thank you.
Should I start on the top? On the CO2? The question was, how we think about CapEx in terms of reaching our decarbonization path. Well, the first 30% is very much about the fuel switch in Alunorte, which we have talked about earlier, which is a NOK 2 billion CapEx to make the first fuel switch from oil to LNG. We have today launched the decarbonization paths for the smelter part, which are twofold. One is to capture the carbon from the existing smelters.
Here we are staging a sort of a technology roadmap in terms of off-gas capturing and also air capturing. We have included CapEx in order to be able to demonstrate that up till let's say industrial scale. When it comes to the other technology path, which is to develop a carbon-free process based on turning alumina into aluminum chloride, that's also. That's something we have been working on for five years, and now we are going to demonstrate this in pilot scale. NOK 2.3 billion is included in CapEx up till industrial scale facilities. But if...
If you're going to build industrial-scale facilities, that would need more CapEx.
When it comes to the CO2 compensation, you know that the compensation is based on the CO2 price in the year before you receive it. In 2021, it was a 2020 CO2 price which was the basis. 2020 CO2 price was around EUR 25 per ton. For 2022, it will be the 2021 price which is around 50 average of the year so far. It could rise as the last close on CO2 price was EUR 86 or so. If you just took the year to date, you'd see more than or quite around the doubling of the CO2 compensation that we've received this year.
Whereas, if you use spot prices, then it's more than that. That is given that the framework is exactly as it is for 2021. When it comes to the final ratification, it's not fully complete. I guess it goes a bit into next year, but what we saw out of the budget process and indications at that stage were still positive and in line with our earlier expectations. On the final part on REIN, I'm not quite sure we heard your question completely. What I heard was questions regarding the potential for serving clients outside Hydro. We don't have any more concrete targets or values set there.
As we move towards a listing, much more detailed information on REIN will be provided to the market.
Thank you very much.
The next question comes from the line of Liam Fitzpatrick calling from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. Two quick questions hopefully from me. First the extrusion side. You're guiding now to quite a big CapEx number next year. How much of that NOK 8 billion new target that you've given us by 2025 do you expect to have delivered by the end of next year and as we enter 2023? Second question on the EU taxonomy. You've given us quite a detailed analysis there. How do you think your analysis of your position is going to impact or influence your inclusion within various ESG and sustainability indices? Thank you.
If I start with the last one, it's difficult, Liam. This sample space is still quite immature. We are spending a lot of time with investors, certain analysts and also regulators to discuss items which are still not necessarily working optimally from our perspective. I can give you some examples at another time if you want some more insight into that. What we are seeing, I guess is that based on other third parties which have tried to create an overview for different industries that our figures look to be on the higher side compared to what they expect, for example, for the metals and mining industry.
How that gets used at the end of the day remains to be seen. If you use the intentions of the framework, then it should be more positive on a relative side for a company like Hydro. If you look at the questions regarding the exclusions improvement program, then there is still a gradual increase on a year-to-year basis of those improvements. If I take off memory, I think it's actually spread quite evenly out among the years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, maybe with a somewhat higher share in 2022.
If you give me one second, I can try and do a back-of-the-envelope here, just to give you some extra color. Maybe around 35% or so in 2022, and then more evenly spread in the years afterwards.
Okay, thank you.
The final question today comes from the line of Daniel Major calling from UBS. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi. Thanks. Just a quick follow-up on the dividend. In terms of the buyback potential, can you give us any indication of kind of what thresholds or what thought process is going into that? Have you had any indication from your largest shareholder whether they would take part in a buyback if you were to go down that route?
No, that's a good question, Dan. If we decide or if the board decides to go down that path, then details of such will be provided after the Q4 reporting. What I could say is that we would not pursue such a program if our largest shareholder would not participate as it does with other large Norwegian companies. That would be a condition for such a program to be undertaken.
Great. Thanks. That's really clear.
We have no further questions coming through on the phone line, so I'd like to hand the call back over to your hosts. Thank you.
Thank you, very much for joining us today at our Capital Markets Day 2021. Please don't hesitate to contact us in IR if you have any further questions. Wish you all a great holiday when that time comes. Thank you.