Earnings Call: Q1 2021

Apr 29, 2021

Good morning, everybody. It's still not 10 o'clock, so I will not formally kind of start the presentation, but kind of give you a couple of words while waiting for more people to arrive. It's a pretty sunny day in Oslo today. And we still have a At least in many of the countries where Protected have a presence in Copenhagen, in Stockholm, even in London and Manchester. So then it should be possible The start of the opening process again then in society. Hopefully, that we dwell on the COVID-nineteen situation operationally. So we are used to getting to staying at home and doing our work, but it's boring. It's not that interesting to talk to a camera like talking to you. So I hope I can see you physical then shortly. I look forward to that. As always, we have state of the union presentations during the morning. It's a good atmosphere as far as I can judge it among the employees in Protector. And I think it's fair to say that they are proud that quarter 1 result ended out very well. So good feedback from all employees. And since last year results were pretty strong, all employees are heading towards Rome in September with the vitamin 2 and celebrated the 2021 good results then I guess, Armin, it is 10 o'clock now, is it? And then we are ready to go. So a warm welcome to everybody to The quarter 1 presentation of the company. Feel free to ask questions through the chat function During the presentation, they will be received by Amund, and I'll try to follow-up either with the answers through the presentation or more likely than at the end of the presentation. There is a time lag of 22nd each way. So if you can pop your questions as early as possible, that would be appreciated and make it a bit easier then to make sure that we can respond to your questions at the end of the presentation. What you see on the slide there is the DNA of the company. This is who we are. We are different. When we recruit people in Manchester or London or Stockholm or Copenhagen, we will always start with the kind of slide you see here. There are 12 statements on the slide. And when we met in Capital Market Day a couple of months ago, We told a story relative to the history of the company. The main targets of the company is cost and quality leadership should lead to profitable growth, which again should lead to putting Protector in a top three position in any market we enter. So what we shared with you in the Capital Market Day was a 17 year history and the status after the previous year then in that area. Our title for that Capital Market Day was We have only just begun. We have only started. We are only 17 years young. And the question you asked yourself in the Capital Market Day is whether we will continue to deliver on kind of the promises and or the guiding of the company. So let me kind of share then the highlights with you then. I think it's fair to say that quarter 1 is a strong quarter. It is probably close to or even the historical best company sorry, quarter in the history of the company. So if you combine the fact that the combined ratio is 91 point 1, with an incredibly strong investment return leading to an earnings per share size 7. I guess it's fair to say that you have never ever seen such a quarter 1 in the history of PROTECTO. Then the only figure on the screen you see now, which is on the weak side, is the growth figure, size 1.8. I'll come back and talk a little bit about underlying reality on the growth side here, but that's kind of the weak point. Strong investment result, very strong combined ratio. Remember that seasonality wise, quarter 1 is normally diverse. Combined ratio quarter, we have winter in the Nordics that influences normally on the profitability, and you will normally see an improvement through quarter 2 and quarter 3. Yesterday evening, the board decided then to pay a dividend sized NOK 1.67 on a quarterly basis, meaning that a decision is only taken on this quarter. When we met last time, you were updated on the fact that we paid NOK 3 per share in dividend. This quarter is SEK1.67 billion. No promises given for the next two quarters to come, But you may see then also quarterly dividend arrive in the future. I come back and explain the dividend policy a bit more like we also did on the Capital Market Day when we met some weeks ago then. So strong combined ratio, not as good as it should have been on the volume side, a fantastic investment result leading to earnings per share SEK 7 and a dividend to shareholders. You can see that's seen from a solvency Capital ratio point of view, the figure at EUR216,000,000 is that we are incredibly solid. We have more capital than needed at the moment and are a lot higher and the target of the company, where we say between SEK150,000,000 to SEK180,000,000 should normally be very good and that above 180,000,000 we should over time payback to shareholders one way or another. It's a good start then. So let's go to the weak point of of this kind of figures, which is the volume side. And there are a couple of important elements here. One is that we have decided to exit some kind of workmen's compensation volume in Denmark and Norway for risk and capital reasons. And that kind of deliberate exit of some products in Norway and Denmark is leading to a negative growth size 6.5% relative to that, meaning that the underlying growth reality is probably a lot better than the SEK 1,800,000,000 which is reported in that area. If you make if you combine the 2, you could argue that the underlying reality here is closer to 8. And again, this is in a quarter where U. K. Is a small quarter. We think still that U. K. Will kick in with more volume delivered through the year. We are also saying here that in U. K, the volume development is on the weaker side. This quarter is not that important, But you some of you know that April 1 is a pretty significant volume date in the U. K. Market, And the volume development on that date has also been on the lower side, pretty poor, I would say. COVID-nineteen is slowing down the market. Obviously, it is competition in the market. So I think that the volume development in U. K. Will be through the year somewhat lower than earlier expected. On the positive side, we are seeing that Sweden is growing with NOK 100,000,000, Norway nor Swedish, doesn't really matter, it's basically the same in quarter 1, and we can also see that Sweden continues to grow entering the quarter 2. So the volume mix may change a bit more towards Scandinavia, where the volume And the renewal rate on the client side is very solid, where we are supported by price increases and where we can see the new sales is picking up in the Scandinavian market, lagging slightly behind in in U. K. Compared with the kind of plans we have. And we have, Armin, before the meeting started, received a question relative to volume development, and I covered that one. And the question is referring to and I guess I can take it, Amgen, is referring to a previous statement from my side where I say that the SEK 1,000,000,000 is the most difficult one in U. K. And my expectation is that we will double. The question is relative to the statement here where we are slightly on the weaker side when it comes to volume development. So my message back to that U. K. Volume question is that we will double from SEK 1,000,000,000 to SEK 2,000,000,000, that's for sure. I think we are past SEK 1,200,000,000 at the moment. When is the question. It's not that important. It will, In my opinion, maximum take 3 years. We could deliver that in 2 years. The important thing is that the growth should be disciplined and profitable. It is a fact that COVID-nineteen is slowing down the situation slightly in the U. K, while COVID-nineteen possibly is supporting us a bit more in Scandinavia, where we have a mature and sizable portfolio there. So hopefully, that clarifies a little bit on the status when it comes to volume development in U. K. Do you have any other questions related to the volume side at the moment, Armin? Okay. So we are not that happy with the volume, but we are behind schedule. But we haven't changed the guiding, And there will be stronger volume development in the next three quarters to come. We have finished the exit on the Workmanskop side. Scandinavia is doing better. It will be slightly behind on U. K, possibly for a few more quarters. In total, you will see acceptable or good growth during the next 3 quarters then here. So let me go to the strong part of the story today or the very strong part. That's the combined ratio, SEK91 point 1, as you can see on the screen in front of you, you can see that both the gross claims ratio and the net is coming down with 11 percentage points. So the improvement is very strong and even stronger than what earlier price increases could indicate. And the reason why is because we have been a bit on the lucky side when it comes to large losses in quarter 1 with a large loss ratio size 2, while last year quarter 1 was 6. So a bit on the lucky side, on the large losses, there will be volatility That will pick up in some quarters and be higher, obviously. We are slightly supported by the COVID-nineteen situation, especially on the Motor side. We may see that continue for a couple of more months. So that is supporting the figures a little bit in quarter 1. However, there are also some losses on the business interruption side. You may see them arrive. So the situation is not totally clear, but we are at the moment slightly supported by reduced activity level in the commercial sector in the Nordics and in the U. K. At the moment. On the other side, we have a very high cost element in at quarter 1. So if I go 2 slides ahead to the combined ratio type of totality. So claims ratio is good, but cost ratio is 3 percentage points higher than what you could call normalized. That is linked to the long term bonus plan because share price development is incredibly strong in quarter 1, that gives a hit on the cost side. So on the claims ratio side, Down 11, both gross and net, very strong, a bit of luck in the Q1. Underlying reality, when you are looking at the combined ratio is still ahead of target in that area. So slightly behind on volume side, somewhat ahead of target when we have guided the combined ratio for the full year, and that is supported by a strong claims ratio then coming out from many of the markets. If you have a look at what's happening between the different countries, you can see that Sweden is doing incredibly Well, in quarter 1, a bit of luck, some reserve gains in quarter 1, but also a strong growth in the market. So our competitive position in Sweden is very good at the moment. So Sweden is kind of in lead in quarter 1. Denmark in Norway is doing very well. U. K. Slightly on the negative side. No worries, It will be volatility. It's 1 quarter. We are confident that U. K. Will come back and deliver good figures seen from a profitability point of view going forward. And the important totality here is that this kind of adds up to a combined HSI is 91.1. There are some reserve losses on Workmans' Comp in Denmark. On the other hand, some reserve gains on Workman's Comp in Norway. This is partly shared with the reinsurance partner we have, but in total, it balanced out. So reserves are flat on a company level. And my opinion is that the underlying reality is that we have acceptable speed In basically all countries, Finland is small, more volatile, could vary a lot between the different quarters because the volume is pretty low. There is still need for some price increases. So like stated on the slide you see here, we will do price increases on employee benefit type of products in Norway and on some other product areas towards some clients, there will be property price increases in Sweden, there is a need for motor price increases in Denmark. So what you have heard from the industry the last few days is that price increases is still on the agenda, and it will continue on the agenda in the Nordic market, but also then in the U. K. Market. If we go to the guiding statement we gave some weeks ago, then a summary is that we are ahead of target on the profitability side. We are ahead On the return on equity side, supported both by the technical result and by a incredibly strong then investment result in quarter 1, we are behind on the gross written premium, but underlying reality is stronger than what quarter 1 is indicating, and we are far, far ahead of target on the Solvency capital ratio type of target. That's the reason why we can pay SEK1.7 billion in a quarterly dividend towards the market. If I make a small comment on the investment side, you have seen that figures are incredibly high. I had an analyst passing me a message this morning that we delivered a better return on investment compared with the NCD, the market leader in Norway, not in percentage points, but in absolute figures. So I can share it and smile a little bit. You won't see that happen again. But okay, a great quarter from the investment team, from Doug Marius Nelring and his team following also a strong kind of return on investment. And as you know, In Protector, investment is core. A significant part of the profitability of the company is expected to arrive from the investment side, And we are happy to see that even in a situation where the interest rates are on a historical low level, we continue to deliver over time better results than many others. Remember, Whether there are gains or losses on the investment side, they are normally unrealized and there will be volatility And you should expect more volatility from Protector than others because we, for instance, on the equity side, have fewer equities than what many others do, and it meaning that volatility will be slightly higher or higher in Protector compared with other stuff. If you don't like it, we are probably the wrong company to invest in. But if you Support ID that, that will lead to a slightly better return on investment over a longer period of time, then you could probably stick to Protectora. On the bond side, It's another good quarter. It's supported by market developments, where the market is doing fine. We also have some kind of situation where we can act. There is some information on the slide here where we have taken a bit more aggressive approach towards a distressed bond during the quarter, we are allowed to, through the mandate, to take a bit more aggressive positions on the bond side, and that resulted in a good gain in this quarter, which is realized. Another day, I may talk about the disappointment in that area. But in the longer run, we think that if we follow the different loan papers properly, if you do the analysis right, to take these kind of actions, should be kind of allowed. It should deliver then slightly better return on the risk we take over a period of time. What we are looking forward to is that interest rates is moving off again. We hope that, that will happen. We will then a bit easier, deliver better return on investment if the interest rate level is picking up. But you know the story, and we may see that situation arrive during the next quarters to come, and we may see that the Norwegian Central Bank is one of the first banks in the world to start to move. It's at least indicated by the Central Bank, and then let's wait and see what's kind of happening. On the equity side, we continue to deliver good both in absolute and relative terms. Obviously, it's not that easy to find good IDs at the moment, but they are still out there. We are searching, And there is one new company on board, which we have invested in lately, which we think is a good idea. So it's possible. It's doable, obviously. The discount to intrinsic value is pretty low. It's, in our opinion, around €15,000,000 at the moment, meaning that we have taken up a lot of profits. So you should obviously not expect that much to be delivered from the equity side going forward. But who knows where the market is going. We are I think the market is pretty high at the moment. We are a bit reluctant to invest more now, We may sell down some kind of positions in the following weeks or months, but that is it remains to be seen in that area. So the investment side is obviously and Protectore on delivering profitable growth. When I do arrive to the profit and loss statement, I think I've shared this story with you. There is one small comment that you can have a look at on this slide is that the fact that the gross combined ratio is better than the net, meaning that in this quarter, we are sending money to the reinsurance world. So the underlying reality is somewhat better if you are looking at the gross combined compared with the net, That is €91,100,000,000 Gross is €87,800,000,000 but that's the way it should be in normal quarters. And also remember that if a large claim hit, let's say, SEK 50,000,000 or SEK 100,000,000 claim, then it could also be linked to the reinsurance side. So Yes, we are a bit on the lucky side when it comes to large losses in quarter 1. But if someone very big arrives, we will also some kind of payment back from the reinsurance world. At the moment, we pay money to the reinsurance world, which is okay, obviously, in most quarters. Sometimes, we will get money back from the reinsurers. The balance sheet is incredibly strong. Here is the build of the balance sheet. And when we deliver the kind of result we do, Let's our let us remind ourselves about the kind of distribution strategy of Protect Oil. Priority number 1 is always profitable growth. At the moment, that growth, which will be higher in the next quarter to arrive, We've not consumed very much capital, meaning that we do have sufficient capital to look elsewhere. We don't have enough good ideas to put even more money at the investment side. We have more than enough cash in order to prepare for distressed type of situations. We haven't planned to do any buybacks at the moment. That is leading to another dividend in quarter 1 after quarter 1. The dividend policy says that if you are above SEK 180,000,000, you should over time pay back to shareholders And that leads to a dividend size SEK1.67 for quarter 1. You may see quarterly dividend arrive in the next couple of quarters. That's not unrealistic to see. Our guiding is a good technical result and I think it's fair to say that the eyes of the board will be more on the technical side than on the investment side since that is obviously more linked then to volatility type of development. So the summary of quarter 1 is a strong start of the year. A combined HSI is €91,100,000,000 Earnings per share is €7,000,000 after a fantastic investment result and a dividend per share sized SEK 1.67. So I hope you have enjoyed the presentation. We with a kind of boring digital type of environment we have, Ameren, Also only 2 or 3 people in the room, and Adan and others Here, we can finish faster than normally then. But I hope you have some questions, Yes, we have. First, sales costs are up in all countries year over year. Is this driven by the growth in 2020? Or is there anything else driving this? Okay. So the cost side is pretty high in quarter 1. That is mainly driven by the long term bonus plan, which is linked to share price development and that is linked to all countries. At the same time, the volume development now is coming out from Sweden and U. K. Those two markets are paying very often or sometimes always commissions to brokers. We pay commission equal to any other player in this kind of market. So the relative cost ratio of Protector is moving up also for commission reasons. That is no worry because it is neutral from a competitive point of view. We have said earlier that this will happen, And you shouldn't worry because it's neutral in that area. In Norway and Denmark, as many of you know, Commissions to brokers is illegal, so that's not allowed. But our relative portfolio development is linked to Commission areas, U. K, Sweden, cost ratio will go up, no worries. The important thing about the cost development is in Protecto is that we have already adjusted manning to lost market share last year in Scandinavian market. Remember, we increased prices a lot. We lost some market share last year. That is improving as we speak. We can see that now. We can show that in figures now. But since we have lost some kind of market, we are kind of tuning in the number of full time equivalents in the company. So costs are taken out. And in the Capital Market Day, you saw Hans Dedring, the country manager in Sweden and the kind of the number 2 in the company When I retire and Henrik will be the new Chief Executive, he gave a presentation on a project we call CL8, indicating that what we are targeting is what we call a real cost sized 8, and we are according to that plan and are doing well on the cost side. We are a fair leader on the cost. Don't worry, we will have a stable position on the cost side and could possibly improve that cost position related to competitors slightly the next 12 to 18 months. So thanks for giving me the opportunity to comment on the cost side. One more on the volume side now. You still expect 10% growth from 2021, as I can understand, With the Norway and Sweden compensating for UK and Denmark, how do you expect the growth to develop throughout the year? So yes, we haven't changed guiding. It meaning that we still think that 10 is doable. However, we are behind schedule in that area. So let's come back after possibly quarter 2 and see whether whether guiding could be changed on the volume side or on the combined ratio side where we are ahead of of schedules. We are lagging a bit behind. It will be difficult to reach 10. But we think at the moment that Scandinavia, meaning Norway and Sweden will compensate for part of the slowdown in U. K. And we, UV, see that happen in quarter 2 and also, in my opinion, in quarter 3 and quarter 4 is more about U. K. Because quarter 4 is a pretty small volume type of situation in Scandinavian market. So the quarter 4 situation is more linked to U. K. And what we are waiting for and hoping for is that we are getting even more opportunities in U. K. Than we do today. The COVID-nineteen situation maybe is smoothing up a little bit and supporting us also a little bit. There are opportunities in U. K. For our big situation, they will arrive. So I think that you should expect already in quarter 2 a good uplift on the growth situation, acceptable in quarter 3. And let's see then It's a bit long horizon into quarter 4. It's more about U. K. So let's wait and see that in that area. Yeah. And there's a lot of questions about the dividends and future dividends. Could you be more detailed on the winding down and would you come close to 280 in solvency capital ratio and in how many quarters or years do you think? Okay. So I think that SEK 167 is there for a reason. And I think you got the picture that the board haven't decided anything, but it's not unrealistic to see that there could be something like that arriving in the next couple of quarters. So that's possible. If you are putting the future development of the company with normalized expectations on investment side and a combined ratio between 90% to 92 into your spreadsheets. What you will see is that the dividend capacity in 2021 and 2022 looks very strong. So in 2021, in 2022 and also in 2023, think you will see a kind of a very strong balance sheet kind of develop here. So I think that the kind of extraordinary high situation we have now could be paid back during the next 2 to 2.5 years, 2 to 3 years. But remember, it will be flexible. We will prioritize profitable growth. We will deploy money towards the investment side, if that makes sense. So we are not a company where you should kind of expect a stable and increasing dividend, that's not really ID. But as far as we can look ahead now, it looks like that the dividend capacity is either rather strong or very strong, both in 2021, 2022 and 2023 in that area. I think that fill in the figures in your spreadsheet and take that we will take a gradual downturn to 1.80 in 2023 and you can do the math yourself then. That's a possibility. I hope that helped a little bit at least then. Yes. And then what would it take to start buyback Instead of dividends. Okay. That's a good one. It is. I think you could argue that the price for the share is pretty low actually at the moment and that buyback could have been a good idea. Many shareholders of Protektur are saying that You can send me dividend, and then I can take the decision myself whether I would like to buy or not in that area. For most of you, you don't really care, do you, in that area. There are some shareholders in the States, for instance, where there is a tax situation, which is a bit more on the negative side relative to dividend compared to buyback of shares. So we have to look at that as well. But I think it's the way the board see the situation now is that it's unlikely to see kind of a buyback situation arrive in the foreseeable future. And I think that you should probably look for more dividend to arrive at not buyback situation at the moment. That could change, obviously. Are you looking into new countries and in what time frame? Okay. So the question now is new countries, and we have a strategy meeting in the board in June. There are nothing kind of immediate on the agenda. But since we, during the last couple of years, 2019 2020, have increased prices, improved profitability. We do feel that we are kind of back on track. It is time to start Thinking about further expansion, we have a long growth path in U. K, as you know, so we can grow for many, many years in the U. K. Market. But I think that during this year, we will gradually take back the plans for entering new markets. And I think it's 2 pretty realistic scenarios arriving. 1 is to go to the Netherlands, like we earlier have talked about, and the other one is to go to more Public Sector Markets in more countries in Europe, that's another alternative route to take. So that will be discussed, But you shouldn't expect any new entries before at earliest in 2023. Yep. Would you or could you comment on your priorities in your newly appointed board positions Chief Investment Officer and Protector in I'm not saying that these companies are not interesting. Obviously, they are. But We are in some companies seeking influence where we are significant shareholders. We can do that by talking to boards or we can do that through election committees or very, very seldomly, we can ask for a board position in that area. So now we have asked for a couple of board positions, And then we will kind of involve a bit more and see whether we can influence future development of the companies. That I don't think it will make a huge difference, Not at all, but hopefully, we can take our responsibility as a significant owner in some companies and see whether we can inspire them or involve in such a way that we can improve then and hopefully, that will lead back to a better either share price development or dividend development from the kind of companies we enter them. That's the idea. So it's a Chief Investment Officer kind of decision to be taken. We have been reluctant to play a true active part so far. But since I also personally have more time after some months now. That is more on the table as an option that we could consider at least. Then the last question. And for those out there, if you have more questions, please feel free to pop them to irprotectorforskring. N0. So the family investment committee bought some shares back in 2017, was it? At 375,000, the share price is now 97. You said you would sell them at 100. Are you still committed to that? I think that basically the answer is yes, But I'm still committed to that. We have to call for a new meeting in the Investment Committee in the family of Bjerkle. Think my wife will have the same position as last time, 3 years ago, in that area. I could argue for that interest rate must be paid, It's a poor timing to sell any shares. I mean, as you know, I'm smiling a little bit. But I invited to this situation by making that statement public. Have to have a little bit fun. So I think I may or our investment company may take the same position, But it can't be sure, and you have to just wait and see whether we do that on SEK 100,000,000 or something higher. It remains to be seen that. So no promises given, but and we don't have investment committee meetings every day In the family, so and I won't share the dates with you that when we have meetings in the family. But you should probably expect something to be solved at a certain stage if you are passing that threshold. Okay. Thanks a lot. Thanks for joining us. Have a great day, and I look forward to seeing you again