Hello, welcome to the walkthrough of Protector's Quarter 2 results. First, I have to ask you to read the disclaimer that is on the screen, and also to ask questions as early as possible so that we can answer them at the end of the walkthrough. Always start with our cultural culture and the cultural focus, and we have, as always, this morning, had a walkthrough with employees focusing on, as we did in Quarter 1, best-in-class decision making, and our tool, performance support, where we aim to have clear targets and results for all employees so that we can go through that in the teams and discuss the performance behind, so that we can improve.
Steering and improving in a clear environment with clear facts is the ambition there. To the results for the quarter and the first half year, where on the profitable growth side, we have combined ratio at 83.9%, which is built up of a mix of results. I'll get back to that on the claims side and underlying higher than 83.9%. I'll also get back to that. The growth is, in many ways, old news since we announced the 1st of April growth in the U.K. public sector in the Q1 walkthrough.
It is also a strong total of 56% in local currencies for quarter two and 34% in local currencies for first half year. On the investment side, the biggest change in the quarter is increase in the underlying interest rates, which affects in different ways. I'll also get back to that. With the new accounting standards, there is a small loss on the investment side, investment return in the quarter. Obviously, we look in the longer term on investments, and first half is a bit longer, not very long in that either. It's very strong. That's volatile.
On the solvency side, we have a strong solvency position, and the build-up is a bit more insurance risk due to the high growth, slightly lower market risk, but in some, together with the result, technical result and the investment result, we end up at a very similar level as after dividends in quarter one, and the board has also proposed to pay NOK 2 after this quarter. With that, I will dive straight into the claims results, which, as I mentioned, are a mix of results, with U.K. being at a very strong level that is driven by property, which is very, very strong, and obviously, with fewer large losses than what the normalized situation should be.
UK is worse underlying than what you see, obviously here. If I comment on the gross and net, so the reinsurance side of this, you have an opposite situation in quarter one and quarter two, where in quarter one, the reinsurance result was negative. So there was a reinsurance losses that contributed negatively more than the reinsurance premium in quarter one, whereas in quarter two, there is a positive contribution from the reinsurance losses, so a gain on large losses. In some that is together with the reinsurance premium around the zero, slightly positive result. We tend to speak about the normalization of the loss ratio through adjusting for large losses on a normalized level.
For the company, we've had 4.7% in quarter two, and we say that 7% is a normalized level. If you add the run-off gains that we have in the quarter at 2.9, you get 5.2 percentage points that needs to be adjusted upwards. In addition to that, you have the discounting effect from the new accounting standards and the risk adjustment, which in some is at 4.2% as an effect in the quarter. Underlying, around our long-term targets. If we look a bit further into the product side of the run-off and large losses, the large losses come from both Norway, Sweden, and U.K., equally contributed in nominal values.
Parts of it in Norway, from Norway is from our share of the natural perils pool from 2 different claims. Total large losses at NOK 111 million. The biggest difference and the biggest adjustment should be done then on Denmark and UK in order to normalize. When it comes to the run-off gains, they are they come from the motor and the property products at 2.9%. In addition to that, there is a large loss gain of 2% from claims in 2022. 4.9%, excluding those large loss system.
As always, on a quarterly level, you should expect that there is volatility in both the runoff and the large loss side, and especially when you come to a country-by-country level. Regarding the growth, we have, as I also mentioned, been through the U.K first of April growth. All countries, except for Finland, which is very small in the quarter and in total, have strong growth in the quarter. That is driven by a high renewal rate, especially in the U.K., and in total, at 106%. Obviously, parts of it is price adjustments and exposure adjustments to counter inflation. We have seen that we most likely are behind on motor, because motor is the poor product on the profitability side.
That's where we need to have harder actions going forward, which obviously was started after quarter one 2023. It will take some time before that has effect, because we decide the renewal terms before three months or more before the inception date, and then needs to incept, and then we need to earn the premium at the higher levels before we see the effect, of course. Parts of it is price increases and exposure increases in the quarter, which we will see the effect of later. Parts is that clients grow naturally. A high renewal rate, low churn, especially in the U.K. again, and the highest price increases are also in the UK.
To comment on the last element of profitable growth, which is the cost side, we can look at the slide on the screen now, where you can see that the cost ratio increases in quarter two. There is some volatility in cost ratio between quarters and especially by country. Repeating myself, both for growth, claims ratio, and the cost ratio. The drivers here are U.K., which is at a higher level, both because there is commissions in the U.K. and because we are, we are approaching or still reducing the cost ratio due to reaching a critical mass, which we are at on the total level in the U.K.
With UK having commissions, and being higher than the company in total, and growing a lot, that increases the total cost ratio. Sweden is a mix of schemes with higher commissions than the portfolio in total, so increase on the commission side, but also an increase in FTEs due to the strong growth we've had in slightly more resource requiring areas. Parts of that will be countered when we have done some of the profitability actions on motor, which also includes exiting two of the most different schemes we have in Sweden due to poor profitability going forward. That's the cost ratio side. Over to investments.
where the steering of the interest rate from a capital perspective is affected by the change in the interest rate curve at 0.6 percentage points in the quarter, which gives us a loss on the swaps and the fixed income locked for the future. poor equity result or a negative equity result, with good underlying performance of our holdings, which is the most important part there. for the interest or the yield in the portfolio, it increases basically by the increase in the ref rate, even though those are not one to one.
Parts of it is then increased in the underlying rate, and parts is the increased risk in the portfolio with a higher high yield bond share, and also the increase of duration, which partially comes from that. A half year which is very strong, and a quarter that is weak on the actual result side. The biggest news and the biggest difference in the quarter is on the interest rate side. The profit and loss is for the second time now for us on a new format.
I have covered most of the elements that are in this, but please help us and ask questions so that we can make it more clear how the new accounting principles work in in order to understand our business better. Mentioned the balance sheet, where we have the positive technical and the negative investment result, and then the proposed dividend, and then market risk, if I go to the next one, reducing relatively due to the high insurance growth. We're back to our culture and a creative new summary that is slightly different than the highlights, but with the same figures, of course.
With that, Amund, do we have any questions?
Yes, we have. Can start with the volume growth in Norway and Sweden. They came down somewhat from a strong Q1. Could you say something about what's driving that development year-over-year?
Yes. It's a continued strong growth with new sales at a good level, but churn is in Sweden and Denmark slightly higher than what it was in Q1. But there is nothing special in the figures for Sweden and Norway growth in quarter two. They are small quarters, small numbers.
One can see that wage growth is increasing across Europe. Do you see any meaningful downside risk to Protector's reserves if this development continues, for example, in workers' compensation?
In workers' compensation, we obviously monitor the reserves, both the case reserves, but also the actuarial reserves, based on a view on what wage inflation will be. That is counted for. Whether we are right in our estimations of what the wage inflation will be, that remains to be seen, but it is obviously counted for.
Yep. You mentioned shortly that in Sweden, we have a couple of schemes that we will exit. Is the underlying or the underwriting performance in Sweden, or the deterioration in that due to bad luck, would you say, or is it underlying weakening, or is it specific to those schemes?
That's a good question, and that's what we ask ourselves now. After the situation is fairly similar to quarter one, where motor is the poor one, but in Sweden, we also have weak property results on the commercial and affinity side. Those schemes that we have done is a one-time decision to enter a segment at a level, and we have not been able to fix the profitability, and we don't see an opportunity to fix the profitability for those schemes. There, it has to do with a poor decision, but it was a conscious decision.
We knew about the risks, then when we realized that the probability of fixing it was low, we exited. The remaining part of the portfolio is more interesting to understand. We have on motor, and that goes for not only Sweden, but all countries, underestimated inflation when we have set our indexes. There is a lag on it, as I explained previously, when we send the renewal decisions and when we start earning. We continuously learn here. Then the question is whether we have underestimated the COVID effect. How big was the COVID effect? Now coming back to normal, is the difference bigger than we thought it would be?
We haven't concluded on that for all countries yet. It is about discipline and in getting the rates up in our renewals and obviously also, in the new sales, but that's easier to just implement. There's no real conclusion on that, but we are curious, and we also see the opportunity to fix the problem that we have on motor and property in Sweden.
Yeah. In Denmark, could you say something about what explains the premium growth in quarter two?
That is both... I don't have the details there, but it is both new sales and a lower churn than what we have in Sweden and Norway. Yeah.
Well, there's more questions. Even with higher large losses, the profitability in UK is currently outstanding. It appears that this could be due to the current competitive environment. Should we expect a combined ratio of around 80% in this question over the next couple of years?
The lower combined ratio due to the competitive environment is also countered by inflation. There is inflation in the U.K., and obviously, there is an opportunity to have slightly better margins, but the uncertainty is also larger with a lot of new clients. Should not expect that. There will be volatility in the U.K. We've said that, with the slightly higher duration on the total portfolio due to motor having higher duration and higher large loss shares, and also property and liability. There will be volatility. The normalized large loss share in the U.K. is higher than in Scandinavia.
Yeah. Further on, UK, do you expect the same exceptional growth opportunities in UK going forward, or are you seeing some changes in the market?
We have not seen large changes in the market. There have not been a lot of market activity or opportunities that have been concluded since we had the first of April presentation. We continue to win some, and but we've also lost some. We haven't seen a big change in that, but it is it's not going becoming further hard.
Yeah. On the growth in the Nordics, Given that motor is poorer this year, what do you think about the growth going forward, 2024, with regards to probably have mispriced and won too much motor?
I. We have seen low churn, even though we have price increases, but we have possibly been slightly too soft on it. We could see a bit higher churn on the motor product. Of course, there will be some churn from the exit of the two schemes. It will affect the growth going forward that we need to improve the profitability on motor.
It seems that questions are about to stop. One last one, before we round off. Do you have an update on the future expansion plans to new countries?
No update other than, so it's similar update as we had last time. We continue the research phase and gathering facts for France, and the situation is improving regarding facts, but we still have a long way to go before we are comfortable and understand the market and can make a decision that that's what we want to do.
Yeah.
We're learning as we go.
Yeah. The rest of the questions have either been answered directly or indirectly through your presentation, or will be answered, written. Keep the questions coming, and we will get back to you in writing or, yeah, otherwise.
Very good. Thank you for the questions, and thank you for your time. It's just from us in Protector to wish you all a great summer. We had only 10 days to put together the result this time, so we had to get some help from artificial intelligence to draw a picture of a summer with some Protector colors. From all 482 in Protector, wish you a great summer, and thank you very much.