Good morning and a warm welcome to ReFuels Q2 2026 results, representing the period July- September 2025. Joining me today to present the results, we have in studio CEO Philip Fjeld, and with us online, we have CFO and Managing Director, Baden Gowrie-Smith. We will first have a presentation, and as usual, we will have a Q&A session afterwards, and you can submit your written questions during the webcast. Without further ado, I'll hand the word over to Philip.
Thank you very much, Alan, and good morning to everyone online. As Alan said, we're here to present our second quarter results for the period July- September 2025. Baden and I will go through the slides, and as Alan said, if you have any questions, please post them in the chat so that we can go through those in a bit. Okay, a bit of an overview first. We run biomethane refueling stations in the U.K. We own 40%, or ReFuels owns 40%, of CNG Fuels, and what we supply to our customers is 100% biomethane, or Bio-CNG, as we call it, with typical GHG emission reductions of about 85%-90%. There is also a cost saving for our customers.
In calendar year 2024, we supplied more than 50% of all the biomethane that went into trucks in the U.K., and we're not only focused on the station side, which you see on the map here, but we also source biomethane and generate RTFCs. As of today, we've got north of 2,100 trucks going through our network. For our customers, we've saved more than GBP 50 million in fuel costs, and very proud of the fact that we saved last year more than 220,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions for our widespread customer base. This is not a solution anymore that is only being adopted by a couple of fleets. We have north of 165 customers. This is just an example of one of our stations, a bit of a different one than we usually show, and I think there are a couple of takeaways from this one.
This is Warrington. That is the M62 motorway you see on the upside there, which is the motorway that goes between Liverpool and Manchester, one of the busiest in the U.K. This station currently refuels north of 500 trucks a day. About 700,000 kg of biomethane goes through this network into customers monthly, and we have a broad customer base that uses it because of the location it is in. A couple of maybe takeaways from this that a lot of people do not always think about is that when we come in and build a station such as Warrington, it is not only about the fuel that we put into trucks, it is also about the type of development we do.
As an example, when we acquired Warrington back in 2019, the land, and we were to just look at the land value that we've added to it by developing what we've done, we have a basically 4x factor of what we acquired it for back six or seven years ago. Here are some of the highlights for the last quarter. The growth in dispensed volume to our customers is 16% growth year- on- year. That's acceptable growth, not great. We expect as the 6x2 trucks really start to become adopted, we would hopefully do better than a 16% year- on- year growth. We are currently, we announced that quite recently, that we currently have taken a debt facility that has put us in a position to build another three stations, and we announced the construction of the first one of those, Magor, about a month ago.
If you look at our EBITDA, we are up 190% quarter on quarter, and today we are very pleased and happy to announce that we are raising our guidance for the financial year from previously GBP 8 million-10 million- GBP 10 million-12 million. Finally, Baden will probably provide some more clarity on this later on, we are considering either uplisting at the Oslo Børs or potentially also listing at a different exchange sometime next year. Where have we come from and where are we going? On the left-hand side, there you see we have got north of 2,100 trucks currently going through our network. You have to remember that when we founded the company back in 2014, we had zero. We had zero dedicated trucks.
Now we are at 2,100, and given the customer order book that we are aware of, or that we have visibility of, we expect this time next year we should be around about 3,000 trucks on the road. If you look on the right-hand side, you'll see that the majority of that volume comes from our grid-connected stations, where Warrington, as you saw previously, is one example of those, but we also have so-called mobile refueling stations. You can see that in the dark green here. That's an important supplement to what we do because it's not all customers that necessarily can use our grid-connected public access network, and as such, the MRS solution we've got, which is a very popular one and which we are now rolling out increasingly, sorry, in increasing volumes to customers going forward.
One of the key metrics for customers when they move away from diesel is what does the so-called total cost of ownership of moving away from diesel and adopting, let's say, a CNG truck. How does Bio-CNG stack up against regular diesel or HVO, which is 100% biodiesel? Here you see that we're currently seeing a 25%-30% savings versus regular diesel, and we're currently seeing north of 40% savings versus HVO. Biodiesel, for those of you who've been following us for a while, biodiesel markets, we've been talking quite a lot about those. What we're currently seeing is the effect of sustainable aviation fuel mandates.
A lot of SAF, or sustainable aviation fuel, is made from the same feedstocks as HVO or as biodiesel, and on the right-hand side graph here, you can see that we're currently seeing an increasingly tightened market, not only for HVO and biodiesel, but also for sustainable aviation fuel. A couple of months ago, both Tesco and Co-op announced large moves, if you want, into the CNG space. As of today, eight out of the ten largest supermarket chains in the U.K. are customers of ours. Why is that? Because they have to decarbonize, and as of today, the really only mass adoptable solution available to them is using biomethane. These are just two examples. We've got a lot more large customers joining us next year as the 6x2 increasingly starts to become adopted.
Speaking of the 6x2, we've now got about 130 of them in operation, which is compared to the so-called 4x2 market we've got is almost negligible. There are about 144,000 diesel 6x2s on the road in the U.K. currently, with only 130 of those running on CNG. It is basically a 0% market share. If you look at where we are currently with a 4x2 market share, about 10% of all 4x2s in the U.K. today run on CNG through our network. If we can start to replicate that also in the 6x2 market, a six times larger market, of course we're not going to be looking at a 0.1% market share, but something a lot greater. Why is the 6x2 lagging? Because it took many, many years for the truck manufacturers to launch 6x2 models.
They did last year and the year prior, and now we are finally starting to see fleets mass adopt these because of course they want to trial them first, and now they are coming into the ordering and taking delivery of them, which is one example on the right-hand side here. We also announced six weeks ago, whenever it was, that we have done our first so-called fixed price Bio-CNG contract with one of our larger customers. Why is that noteworthy? One, it is important for our customer, of course, because it gives them price certainty so that they can sleep well at night and disregard what visibility or lack of visibility, if that, or price volatility there might be. That is a multi-year rolling contract.
We expect to do more of these in the future, and it's also good for us because it gives us then also visibility with regards to volume certainty from certain customers. We announced back in October that we have secured a GBP 25 million debt facility that is currently being deployed as we speak into building stations. Our first one, Magor, which is in South Wales, went into build some weeks ago, and we are planning to have another two funded by that facility. Our ambition by the end of 2028 is to pretty much double our refueling capacity, both through grid-connected stations, but also through increasing the number of mobile refueling stations that we've got, taking our grid-connected station number up to 25 and a mobile refueling station number up to about 30, so pretty much trebling them from where we are today.
We opened Livingston in Scotland, which is the most recent one that we opened back in May. Here you can see Magor, which went into construction, and there's a lot of solid progress being made there. Swindon is the next cab off the rank, which we expect to start building early in the new year, and then we have another third facility, which we'll be announcing probably sometime in Q1 when we will decide which site that will be. As I say, all of these are being funded through the GBP 25 million debt facility that we closed recently. Here's just an example. Once again, Magor.
A lot of people look at our stations and say, "Well, hang on, you just need to pour some concrete and install some compressors and some dispensers and a gas grid connection." There is a lot more that goes into it than that, and often the lead time between searching for land, negotiating the land, getting all of the permits in place, the planning approvals, etc., can take many, many years. Magor, as an example, we started constructing that in October, but it has taken us basically 18-24 months to get to what we call shovel ready. Having that capability to move these sites through this process to get into shovel ready is one of the core competencies we have, and the track record we have in delivering this does put us in a very strong competitive position.
Previously, we've talked a lot about the biofuel markets and how various factors within those biofuel markets affect the pricing of RTFCs. What we're now seeing is that there is a lot more stability in the biofuel market than there has been and than there was over the last couple of years, and we're now starting to see RTFC prices which are now trading above the historical average. That also, of course, is reflected in our earnings, but it is important here to understand that we aren't sitting on RTFCs and are trying to play the spot market. We take a much longer-term view, and as such, we are looking to lock in margins when we can. It is important, I think, for you to understand that the underlying factors that determine the price of RTFCs, they are tightening.
I showed you the HVO graph previously, and what we're there seeing is an increasingly tighter market. We wouldn't be surprised if over the next couple of years we will actually start to see RTFC prices trend up even further. With that, I'll hand it over to Baden.
Thank you very much, Philip. Just to remind everyone what you're seeing here, we are presenting the results of the CNG Fuels business primarily, which of course ReFuels owns their 40% share in. If you want to see ReFuels' standalone results, they're available both in the presentation and in the report so that you can have a look at those. Obviously, the principal asset of ReFuels, of course, is the CNG Fuels business, and it's important to understand the performance of that business to understand the value in ReFuels.
Very pleased to obviously show that we've to say that we are increasing our guidance by 20% for this financial year. We're comfortable doing this, obviously on the basis we're only in the end of Q2 results now, but on the basis that we have continued to see the favorable market conditions and growth in our volumes as we had hoped. We have improved visibility on EBITDA. That is, we are active, obviously, within the biomethane and RTFC space and have the RTFC team within the business have been doing an excellent job of forward-selling RTFCs from prior periods against the biomethane sourced, giving us really good clarity on earnings, certainly over the next couple of quarters.
Likewise, the station business, which is clearly, which is fundamentally driven by the volumes that come through it, we understand how those convert into earnings well, and so with those together, we're comfortable raising our guidance to the GBP 10 million-GBP 12 million range. With the biomethane certificates, we do biomethane RTFCs, we do report in two different ways on the margins on those. The gross profit margin simply on a sold basis was just under 30%, which of course is the margin we have seen as a sort of historical average, trading very close to that. On an accounting accrual basis, given the delivery against forwards from RTFCs sold in prior periods when the RTFC price was lower a year ago, we see a 22% margin on those ones.
Overall, solid growth and revenue up 20% from the same period last year, and you can see here the EBITDA growth of more than 300%, so quadrupling of EBITDA for the same period as last year, which obviously we are very pleased with. Here you can see revenues driven by dispense volumes coming through and the RTFCs that are generated from the sale of biomethane into vehicles from the kilos we dispense. The gross profit split has changed a bit from last quarter and will continue to, obviously, on a quarter-to-quarter basis depending on the biomethane we match with our volumes. In this period, we had a gross profit split of roughly one-third to the CNG Fuels business, station business, and two-thirds to the RTFCs business, which buys biomethane and sells the RTFCs.
Contributions for the two parts, a very healthy GBP 3.5 million contribution in the quarter from the RTFC business, and a -GBP 650,000 from the station business, which is now consolidated as both the stations themselves as well as the operating overhead and all future station development, research and development, etc., within the CNG Fuels business. We're pleased to say is that that business is continuing towards a profitability on a standalone basis, ignoring the biomethane side of the business, and we anticipate a break-even in the first half of the next financial year on the basis of just a very conservative number of the existing confirmed orders we have in our vehicle order book from customers arriving. At that point, we'll have two separate revenue streams, both profitable, that are really only linked together and correlated by the fact that they're both driven by the volumes underlying the business.
Two separate revenue streams can help grow the company that both have just one common driver, and of course, we are seeing adoption continue as it has for many years now at a healthy rate. That, of course, is very encouraging for the company. One point of note in this quarter is that we have quite a large profit after tax. This has been because we've been able to recognize prior losses and capital allowances that were within the business that were unable to be used prior to the formation of a group. These losses are now able to be recognized as an asset because they're based on the likelihood, on the high likelihood of future profitability, and therefore we can now recognize these and can use them, obviously, against profits in the periods ahead. Lastly, I'll just mention our overheads and efficiencies.
We've been very cost-focused, really trying to control the cost line on the business and actually use the resources we have whilst running a nationwide network. For the first time, we now are able to show both the CNG stations as well as the overhead of the CNG Fuels business together to show an overhead number and the improvements we've made over the last 12 months or so. We have decreased overhead on a per-kilo basis from GBP 0.26 per kilo in the first half of last year down to GBP 0.21 this year, and obviously, we continue to grow volumes whilst maintaining a fairly steady overhead base, so we can anticipate that that should continue to come down further.
Finally, a very positive reason and one of the main drivers of the transaction we completed in April of this year was to bring the group together to have multiple revenue streams that will be profitable, both profitable revenue streams shortly, and also to take the assets of the CNG station business and bring them onto the balance sheet. Essentially, we have a very healthy asset-backed earnings base. As you can see here, we have GBP 105 million now of assets sitting on the balance sheet, and of course, we have just signed this GBP 25 million facility with the Foresight Group to build three additional stations. Once those are built, we will have GBP 130 million worth of assets on the balance sheet and just GBP 25 million of debt, so a conservative about 20% gearing ratio.
That, of course, will be well supported by the earnings of the business and has the capacity to be grown as well as when we need to look at the development of future stations after that. Again, with the GBP 12.5 million of cash on the balance sheet at the end of the period, healthy cash balance, low leverage, and a solid asset base now to continue the growth from. Thank you.
Thanks, Baden. I will summarize briefly, and then we will take some Q&A. Once again, if you have any questions, please feel free to send those through. If you look at where we are today, we've previously given a target, if you want, out to 2030 of what we want to achieve between now and 2030.
That is basically an average of 25% growth between now and then, taking us up to about 8,000 trucks by the end of 2030. We sometimes get the question, "Well, you're at 2,000 a bit today. Isn't that quite ambitious?" It's like, "No, not really." When you look at the number of 6x2s, diesel 6x2s, 144,000 in the country, the amount of number of CNG, which is negligible. As we start to penetrate that market, we do feel that 8,000 trucks in four or five years from now is absolutely doable. The middle graph here gives you a good illustration of what our EBITDA will then look like, given the assumptions that we will get to 8,000 trucks by the end of 2030.
Where we are today actually slots in really nicely with that graph, and as such, we are pleased to say that from where we stand, we feel that we are on track to delivering on this. Finally, just a quick snapshot of what's been going on, but also looking a bit into the future. We are seeing month-on-month growth when it comes to the volume that goes through our network. That's not something we expect to stop. That's something we expect to continue. We're very pleased to raise our guidance from GBP 8 million-GBP 10 million -GBP 10 million-GBP 12 million, as Baden mentioned, function of favorable market conditions, but more importantly, on the volume growth. Now, we've got 16 operational stations today, grid-connected stations today. We've got ambition to get to 25. We need more stations. More stations will give us further growth and further profitability.
As such, that GBP 25 million debt facility was really important. Finally, we are considering whether we should either uplist or dual-list the company during 2026. No decision has been taken there, but that is something we are looking into, and we will, of course, update our shareholders when we have something more to report on that. With that, we will go to some questions.
Thank you, Philip. We have received a couple of questions, and to start off with, the first one is on EBITDA guidance. What is the main reason for uplift in guidance? Do you see this guidance on the conservative side?
I will take that one. You can jump in if you want, Baden. We have increased the guidance clearly because we have visibility until the end of the year, and we feel it was prudent to do so.
Whether it's conservative or not, we've upped the guidance because we feel that is a prudent thing to do. Tune in again at the end of February, and we'll give a bit more of an update then. No, we are getting increasingly good visibility on earnings for next quarters. That's why we felt it was prudent to do so. We will provide, of course, another update at the end of February. Anything you want to add there, Baden?
No, not particularly. Clearly, we've given a range to enable flexibility coming into the end of the financial year as well. For the time being, we felt the last guidance was no longer going to be, yeah, was no longer prudent to leave investors with. Yeah, we were comfortable with the new range for the time being.
Next question is on competition.
You touched briefly on your competitive advantage in station development. Would you be able to just update on the wider competitive landscape, and how do you see that developing as you continue to grow?
Okay. Probably many ways one can answer that, but I'll give a couple of perspectives on that. First of all, if you look at the overall penetration of biomethane, both CNG and LNG, biomethane as a truck fuel for the typically articulated trucks, which are the big tractor and trailer combinations, there's about 2.5% of those vehicles in the U.K. today that run on CNG or LNG. There are more CNG vehicles on the road than LNG, but there is a meaningful amount of LNG vehicles on the road as well. There's 97.5% that run on diesel.
There is a lot of space for us in the CNG world and also the LNG world to grow into that 97.5%. As such, I do not think we are going to see anything that even looks like saturation or market maturity there for potentially decades to come. You can look at the other perspective, which is, what are we actually competing against? If we are not competing against LNG, which we really are not, and LNG to some extent is really competing against CNG, both of us are really competing against either fossil diesel or biodiesel. Fossil diesel for many fleets now is no longer an option. They have to move off it for various reasons. Not various reasons, but along various time frames. Some of them want to be 50% off by 2030, 100% off by 2035. We are really competing against HVO.
What we've seen there is that if you go back six months, twelve months, the price spread between biomethane and HVO was much narrower than it is today. I showed previously that when I look at 40%+ price cost advantage of CNG or Bio-CNG over biomethane, so that's really the one to look out for. Finally, electrification. We are not seeing any signs in the market of mass adoption of electric trucks in the heavy end of the spectrum. Yes, there are certain electric trucks that go in and out of city centers, the rigid ones, the small kind of box trucks, but for the long-haul segment, we're not seeing electrification move into that sector now. Our competition today is really around fossil diesel and around HVO. Good.
Next question is on your customer base.
The number of customers has decreased from 173 in Q1 to 168 in Q2. Why is this?
Yeah, you should not read too much into that. We have quite a few customers who have one truck or one vehicle. Some of them might get rid of that truck or might have gone out of business, or they have parked it up for a certain period of time. Yeah, you should not read too much into that. We do provide those numbers just so that you can track this over time. You will see a bit of volatility up or down, five customers here, five customers there. That does not mean that the overall market is contracting. That is just one-off customers that may or may not have gotten rid of that truck, gone out of business, or just parked it up for a period of time.
Next question on ownership.
Your ownership in CNG Fuels can increase to 55% if certain goals are met. How does the GBP 25 million loan from Foresight affect this?
You want to take that one, Baden?
Yeah, sure thing. Absolutely. Clearly, senior debt sits at the top of the capital stack. Any debt we bring in will naturally, after creditors, be paid out. We will naturally be paid out on a value realization event if need be. Of course, otherwise, we will be refinanced out potentially into a larger facility. It will sit ahead of ordinary shareholders as debt usually does and behind the shareholder loans as well. Technically, it pushes the ratchet further away, but of course, the GBP 25 million is being deployed into growth assets, which help drive the value and drive of the business. Of course, that is how you participate further in the ratchet.
We are very pleased that the return on capital for the GBP 25 million that we are deploying is going to some stations that have excellent IRRs that will help continue to build out the network and actually generate not just additional trucks for their own stations, but additional trucks at all of our stations because it continues to build on the narrative for customers and the logic behind why they can adopt in more sites around the U.K.
Good. The next question is on 6x2s. Not many 6x2s have been delivered yet. Is that an indication of poor uptake?
Yeah, good question. No, it is absolutely not a sign of poor uptake or poor interest. It is purely a function of time for the following reasons. The 6x2s in their current configuration were really only launched last year.
Most fleets will want to run a trial period, demo the vehicle before they order them. There has been a limited amount of demo vehicles available in the U.K. That is rapidly changing. There are lots more being added as we speak. Because there has been a limited amount of demo trucks on the road, there has also been a long waitlist. There is a huge waitlist to actually demo these trucks. Therefore, of course, the order book as such is lagging when it comes to when we can actually see those. That said, we are aware of north of 100 fleets that still want to trial the 6x2. To be fair, we have probably given up counting by now. What we are seeing is really healthy interest, really healthy amount of orders coming through.
Actually, something quite interesting as well is that for the first time ever, we are seeing large fleets order trucks without actually having trialed them, actually demoed them. Just last week, we were called up out of the blue. There were three 6x2s being delivered to two different customers. There were two for one and one for the other. Those were three trucks that we'd never heard of. We didn't know the orders were placed, and we didn't know those customers had committed to them. The 6x2 is truly opening up a bit of a sort of new universe for us. It is going to be really interesting to see how that tracks over the coming quarters. We are really excited by it. We will provide not guidance, but we will provide data points quarterly going forward so that our investors can see how that is tracking.
Okay. We have one more question related to EBITDA. You lifted EBITDA guidance for this full year. What do the next years look like?
It's a good question. I mean, I briefly touched on the activities of both the biomethane RTFC side of the business and then the station side of the business, but I'll just elaborate a bit further. We see the station side of the business, obviously, where a number of the assets sit as, yeah, I guess, almost a subscription model. Our customers are very captive. We've got more than 2,000 trucks refueling at our stations every day. We have the customers fill up on average more than once per day every day at the sites. Most of them, many of them are double-shifted. Of course, we are located in areas that mean that we are convenient for our customers.
We are the most convenient refueling source for our customers, certainly, to come to for their depots. We see a continued growth and excellent operating leverage in that business. As you saw, we have had a 16% growth last year, but a very substantial uplift in EBITDA over the first half of the year, nearly quadrupling off essentially 16% growth in underlying volumes. That just shows the operating leverage we have to our current cost base versus the earnings we can generate with more customers coming through. We will be breaking even in the first half of next year on the station side.
On the RTFC side, the RTFC business within CNG Fuels does an excellent job of going out and sourcing biomethane and selling for the RTFCs and to provide us with additional clarity and risk management around the very, potentially very lucrative earnings streams associated with the biomethane side. Between those, we're very confident that we'll continue to have strong business performance in the years ahead. Of course, we need to, yeah, a couple more quarters to provide more visibility on those. Yeah, obviously, continue to watch our earnings releases, and we'll provide guidance for that.
Next question on that. You've touched upon this, Baden. What do you mean by operational efficiencies? Please, can you elaborate?
Operational efficiencies, we do operate a U.K.-wide network that comes with a certain requirement for resource to be spread around the U.K. for the provision of services to look after and maintain a 24/7 network of stations. Obviously, with the availability record that we have, which we're very proud of, that means that there is a lot of resource that exists already that we can make sure we make the most out of without having to actually go and increase necessarily in any meaningful way the headcount and any meaningful way the fixed assets we have around and the way we operate them. We are working really hard on trying to keep the operating costs of the business relatively stable. Of course, it will grow over time.
By comparison to the speed of growth of the underlying volumes in the network, we see the growth in our operating cost base at a much lower level than that. With that, of course, we will see the overhead per kilo continuing to drop. We anticipate it will continue to drop as we continue to grow and well through that fixed cost base that we have. That is what I mean. Obviously, we are seeing that in the numbers now.
Yeah. I will just add another point there. That is that if you look at, we did an exercise which Baden briefly mentioned. We did an exercise about a year ago where we looked at, okay, what happens if we go to 30 stations, 35, 40 stations?
Does that mean that if we go from 15 stations to 30 stations, does that mean we need to double our overheads and cost base, etc.? The answer is no. We actually need a quite small increase in our overhead and cost base to service a much larger market. There are also other efficiencies that Baden and I will not come into here, which are more under the hood as to how we actually operate things, how we can be a bit smarter around certain purchases, what have you not. Now that we have brought the three verticals of certificates or biomethane sourcing stations together under the CNG Fuels umbrella, that has also given us or put us into a much, much better position with regards to looking at how we conduct some of our purchases as well.
You should start to see you're seeing some of the effect in our numbers today. I think we're pretty confident you'll start to see a much stronger effect of that in the coming quarters.
Good. We have one final question here. You are looking at an uplisting and/or dual listing. Please, can you provide some more context to this?
I'll just take that briefly, and then Baden can probably jump in. We are a listed company. We clearly want to be in a position where we can better utilize the capital markets if we want to use them in the future to drive further growth, as an example.
Therefore, it becomes natural for us to look at, can we, as an example, go on to the main exchange here in Oslo, or could we go on to another exchange to, one, increase liquidity in the stock today, but also put us in a position to actually use the capital markets more actively in the future if we so desire to do so. That does not mean that we would just go and raise money for the sake of raising money. Of course not. That is not the point. There is a really exciting undercurrent here, if you want, with regards to growth in the biomethane sector across Europe. There is quite a lot of M&A activity going on in that sector and so on.
Actually being able to take ourselves onto either another exchange or uplist to go on to the main bourse here in Oslo would then put us in a position where we have better availability and better ability to utilize the capital markets rather than what we have today. Anything you want to add there, Baden?
I mean, that is, of course, the principal reasons. Thanks, Philip. I think my addition to that would simply be that we speak to, we hear from shareholders regularly in these earnings calls. We understand that we want to have a well-functioning share dynamic with both liquidity, but also have investors be able to access the stock more easily. Currently, it is more complicated to access given the market we are presently on.
We gather there is interest from investors that simply are not able to presently access the exposure of the ReFuels shares. We really want to repair that and have a well-functioning stock for all of our investors.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I will hand it over to Philip to close the call.
Thank you. Thank you for those who put through questions. As always, you can get hold of Baden and/or myself if there are questions you did not get answered today or anything else in the future. Thank you very much for tuning in. Really excited about this current quarter. Hope to see you again towards the end of February when we will give you another update. Thank you and have a good day.