ReFuels N.V. (OSL:REFL)
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Apr 24, 2026, 2:49 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q3 2026

Feb 27, 2026

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome to ReFuels Q3 2026 Results, representing the period October to December 2025. Today, we will have a fully virtual presentation, and I'm joined, as usual, by CEO, Philip Fjeld, and CFO and Managing Director, Baden Gowrie-Smith. We will first have a presentation, and afterwards a Q&A session, and you can submit written questions during the webcast. With that, I'll hand the word over to Philip.

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

Thank you very much, Arlin, good morning to everyone who is tuning in, whether it is live or you are watching this on catch up afterwards. We are very pleased to have you join us for our Q3 presentation. As per usual, I'll set the scene with what's been going on operationally, talk a bit about the market, our results, high-level results, Baden will do a deep dive a bit later on. We will round up, most importantly, please submit questions to us if you've got any. Just a reminder of what we do. ReFuels owns 40% of CNG Fuels, our clean infrastructure platform, which currently is active in the U.K. market.

100% of the fuel that we supply to our customers is biomethane from a waste feedstock, offering there or thereabouts, 90% lower emissions today compared to running a diesel truck. We have a very strong position in the U.K. We're a market leader there, where more than 50% of the biomethane that goes into the truck fleet goes through our stations. You look at where we've come from as a company, it's taken us basically 12 years to get to where we are today. We've got north of 2,200 trucks that exclusively use our network.

Only since 2020, so in the last five, six years, we've helped our customers save more than GBP 50 million on their fuel bills, one of the big drivers for adopting Bio-CNG. Equally important is that we've also helped our customers, just in the last 12-month period, saving north of 220,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, this is not just a technology or a transport solution that is being used by the large, well-known logistics company. We are now into seeing true mass adoption, hence that is reflected in the customer number that we have got. Just a reminder, as to what the, you know, CNG Fuels and the platform looks like. We've essentially got two verticals within that platform. We've got RTFS.

We'll be talking about certificates, a bit later, and how we source biomethane, et cetera. RTFS is essentially the upstream part of the business, which sources biomethane, generates certificates, and creates a margin there. We've got the downstream part of the business, which is CNG Fuels, which has the station network in the U.K., which is where all the fleet customers contract. It's where operations happen of those stations, further developments, et cetera, et cetera. We own 40% of CNG Fuels, and as you will see, a bit later on, CNG Fuels is now in an increasingly strong position, profitability-wise, but also cash flow generation-wise. Once again, just a reminder as to what a typical station looks like. This is Warrington on the M62. You know, to the west there is Liverpool, to the east, is Manchester.

This is our busiest truck-only refueling station. We also refuel trailers at some of our stations that we use for our Mobile Refueling Stations or our fleet of so-called MRSs. Warrington typically refuels more than 300 trucks a day. Annualized, it's about 8 million kg of biomethane, and generates more than 30 million RTFCs. Why are we highlighting this? Because this is just, I think, a good illustration of what a typical station looks like, but more importantly, what we can actually throughput that station. Warrington is currently just north of 50% utilization, continues to trend higher, and we would say that at a typical steady state, it'll be doing about 16 million kg. If we then look at highlights for the quarter, we're very proud and pleased of the quarter that we have delivered.

A big thank you to all of the teams across the group, whether it be upstream or downstream, who have now participated in turning CNG Fuels into the company it is, and starting to deliver on the potential we've got. We're very pleased to report that our year-to-date EBITDA is GBP 9.7 million, basically up 10x from the same period of last year. We are raising our guidance. Previous guidance was GBP 10 million-GBP 12 million for the financial year. Reminder, the financial year ends at the end of March. We're now raising that to GBP 13 million-GBP 15 million. What is it that's driving us raising that guidance? It's basically three things. We've got operational efficiencies that we're now really starting to harvest, which is a function basically of scale benefits, and we've got.

On the upstream part, we've got higher certificates prices, which are improving the overall margins that we can generate from sourcing biomethane and putting that through our network. The overall volume was up 13% year-on-year. We see that the 6x2 CNG trucks are now hitting the road, and CNG trucks are growing despite a shrinking overall new registration market. I've got a slide on that in a bit. Finally, we are making good progress on another three stations that will be operational or should be operational in the coming 12 months. I just mentioned the truck market, and I think this is a new slide, but this is an important slide for you guys to take away from this presentation.

We are in the third year of a shrinking new registration market in the U.K. It's not just a U.K. issue, by the way. We're seeing similar things in North America and also in the EU. Despite being in a shrinking market, we are growing as part of that market. You know, clearly, if we were doing diesel, we'd probably have a shrinking market as well, but we're not. We are, you know, supplying something that is cheaper and greener, hence we are in the growing portion of that market. Clearly, the market is shrinking for a reason. The margins are tight out there. There is consolidation ongoing.

That also means that fleets, in general, need to watch their costs maybe more than they did, and think about replacement of vehicles more than they did just a couple of years ago. As such, we would likely been growing more in that period had we had an upward-trending overall market instead of a shrinking market. On the right-hand side, just a reminder, you know, we are today covering about 10% of the so-called 4x2 market with CNG trucks that exclusively use our network. If you then look at the 6x2 market, it's really hard to see that light green one down there. We today only cover 0.1% of that market. Now, why is that? Because the CNG trucks have really only been available in a 6x2 configuration in the last couple of years, Truly, I would say over.

only in the last 12 months. That we expect to start growing rapidly going forward. That doesn't mean that we expect 4x2 to plateau. We expect the 4x2 market to continue to grow, but now finally, we can also move into and see true adoption starting in a market that is 6 times larger than the one we've been confined to so far. If you look at the overall age of the fleet and the makeup of the fleet, there are still about 162,000 articulated diesel, so articulated meaning tractor and trailer combination, diesel HDVs on the road. You know, we estimate that about 100,000 of those will need to be replaced between now and 2035.

More importantly, you know, fuel technology choice is something that is made on an ongoing basis through that period. There's a lot of potential growth for us to come. Getting more stations operational is important to us. The most important factor has really been the fact that the 6x2 now has arrived. We're starting to see mass adoption of that. If you then look at, what is it that's important for our customers? There are two things. One is they get the ability to green their logistics by typically 90%, there or thereabout, greenhouse gas emission reductions compared to diesel.

A lot of our customers, a lot of our, you know, the large PLCs in the U.K., have an ambition to be, let's say, 50% carbon neutral by, let's say, 2030 or 2035, maybe 100% by 2035 or 2040. If they want to achieve that today, there's really only two alternatives. Either you keep your diesel truck or buy a new diesel truck, and you run on 100% biodiesel, called HVO, or once your diesel truck comes up for replacement, you go out and you buy a CNG truck, and you run on biomethane or biomethane. There are two elements here that are important for our customers. It's what does the so-called total cost of ownership mean to them?

You know, is there a positive case for going down the CNG route, and what are the greenhouse gas emissions? Greenhouse gas emissions, I've already mentioned, 90% savings, there or thereabout. If you then look at the TCO and the typical payback period for buying a CNG truck, that, yes, is more expensive to buy, but once you start running it with fuel costs, you add in AdBlue and all this other, all these other elements in there, we typically see that if you're comparing it to HVO, there is less than a year payback on running a new CNG truck. If you look at diesel, once again, dependent on mileage, but if you do an average mileage, we're looking at about 1.5-year payback. Here, it's important to remember that the average truck is typically kept by the first owner for about five years.

Some keep them shorter, some keep them longer. The average is about five years. There's a very compelling business case here for why you would adopt CNG, not only with regards to greenhouse gas emission reductions. You look at the policy environment that we're in, there's a lot of positive policy developments currently with regards to biomethane's role and the role that biomethane can play in transport, both in the EU, and we're also starting to see the same in the U.K. We are often asked how much potential biomethane is there out there. Why are we asked that? Everyone in the industry folk who pays attention to biofuels knows that there is a likely shortage of feedstocks for biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel, they also assume that the same is the case for biomethane.

That is not the case, and we don't see that being the case potentially for decades to come. As such, a lot of new supply is being developed, and that is putting us in a very good position when it comes to sourcing biomethane going forward. We look at our station network today, we've got 16 grid-connected stations operational. We've also got 11 so-called MRSs, mobile refueling stations. We've got another station in build, which you'll see soon, Magor, and we've got two more going into build shortly. We have a medium-term ambition out to the end of 2028 to get us up to 25 grid-connected stations, either operational or in build, and to take our MRS fleet up to close to 30 MRSs. That is what we today see as the base case.

If the 6x2 adoption accelerates faster than we have anticipated, we are likely to need more stations sooner. Here's just to summarize on what we've got on the station front. Livingston opened in May of last year. Magor is in construction, despite a very wet winter in England and Wales. Construction there is on track and is moving ahead very nicely. We are due to go into to take an FID, final investment decision, on Swindon very soon, and then we have a third station that we will be announcing shortly as well. All three of these new ones, Magor, Swindon, and the third one, should be operational by Q1 next year.

Mentioned biomethane briefly, if we then look at how the RTFC market is developing, we're now pretty much there or thereabout on the average of where RTFC prices have been. You know, RTFCs are a function of the biofuel spread between fossil diesel and biodiesel. That has historically been a volatile market. We expect there to be some volatility in that market going forward, but we expect the trend to be upwards. That doesn't mean it's gonna be linear. Of course, there isn't. Because it's not such a liquid market, but overall, there's a lot of positive stuff that are happening within the marketplace and also, as I mentioned previously, on the policy side of things, and this is just one to illustrate it. If you look at the.

If we start at the bottom here, I would stress that includes double counting, that is the current biofuel blending mandate in the U.K. There is a consultation that's expected to come out very soon about potentially increasing this. More importantly, if you look at Germany, which is the largest road biofuel market in Europe by a wide margin, there is an expectation in the market the new legislation there will be voted through in March or April, which will drastically increase the trajectory of what they need to do. Again, that will have a positive impact on the underlying drivers in the biofuel markets, which, again, will trickle through into the price of RTFCs. With that, I will hand it over to Baden.

Baden Gowrie-Smith
CFO and Managing Director, ReFuels

Thank you, Philip. Good morning to everyone. Just to remind all the listeners, these are the financial results of CNG Fuels, which is the operating business that ReFuels holds its 40% stake in. We believe that showing the performance of CNG Fuels is the best proxy for the performance of and value creation in ReFuels for investment in ReFuels. The ReFuels accounts themselves can be found in the back of the release presentation and report. Year to date, revenue is up 22% to GBP 46.5 million on the back of a 13% increase in our underlying volumes dispensed during the period.

This, however, has led to a 72% increase in gross profits to GBP 10 million, and a jump in our EBITDA from GBP 0.2 million a year ago to GBP 5.6 million in the current quarter, which is also double the GBP 2.8 million of EBITDA in our prior quarter. The business has two separate work stream, two separate revenue streams, which are correlated really only by the volumes we dispense into trucks. We have the biomethane sourcing and RTFC sales of RTFS business, and the downstream Bio-CNG dispensing into customer vehicles, and those are the activities of the CNG fuel station network.

The gross profit split between these two during the quarter was about 66/ 33 in favor of the RTFS business, but both businesses contributing meaningfully to gross profit. We're also very pleased to see is that the CNG station business is making further progress towards break even, which we flagged previously, and we expect that to be to break even in the first half of this year. This is important because it'll mean that both of the revenue streams in the business and both of the business activities will be independently profitable, and neither subsidizing the other, both actually just supporting each other, as two separate streams of profits for us to benefit from. The company also generated a record 82 million RTFCs in the quarter, generated and sold.

The approval of these certificates is meaningful because it means that our customers were supplied with 100% approved biomethane throughout the 2025 calendar year, which is a milestone for them. It's important to them to show those emission savings. It's obviously a great enabler for us to be able to say that we've provided them with 100% biomethane through the period. Next slide please, Philip. Thank you. Obviously, we're very pleased to be increasing our earnings guidance for the full year by 20%, to GBP 13 million-GBP 15 million. As Philip's already mentioned, this is principally due to the scale benefits we are continuing to see in the business as we've broken through those cost barriers and are continuing to add more.

A dd more earnings. We're also seeing stronger margins, really, across the business on the increased volume growth we're seeing. Obviously, I'm very happy now that we can draw towards the end of the financial year to be able to, up this guidance. In the quarter, we also saw the highest, quarterly gross profit margins on RTFC sales we've seen in three years now, with that market having continued to normalize, up to 31%. Now what we're seeing is both the prices and the margins, of the RTFCs that we're selling, are sitting around their historical averages.

We continue to see an increase in the visibility of the EBITDA generation from biomethane sourced into the year ahead, and even, and backed up against the RTFC sales all the way into 2027. This visibility is obviously very comforting for us, making our investment decisions, and also brings some comfort into looking at the earnings profile and understanding the earnings profile of the business through the year ahead for investors. We are expecting our as a bit of sort of early guidance on our look, on our look forward for next year.

Are we expecting underlying volume growth in roughly the same magnitude as in this calendar year, sitting around 15%-20% growth, which is a combination of obviously, a continuing soft haulage market, which we're starting to see signs of improvement, but also, you know, from our customers, a continuing interest in decarbonizing using biomethane. Those orders are continuing to be placed as well as the delivery of existing orders that are still coming through. Next slide, please, Philip. Thank you.

A key piece of the narrative for the restructure with Foresight last April was to bring in the substantial investment in CNG station assets, and bring those back onto the balance sheet of CNG Fuels, and then to combine them with the dual earnings streams of the business, which, of course, as I've mentioned previously, are just about to now go both become profitable.

This platform, we think, would should be able to bring down our cost of funding for the future rollout of our stations, our station network, and our and the deployment of the MRSs, and which and also to be, to make us a strong counterparty for our customers to continue to make their investment decisions into gas trucks with. We've seen both these effects. We've seen our credit ratings, credit ratings and credit scores strengthen dramatically over the last six months or so. We received multiple offers, obviously, for funding of the station network last year. We've also seen customers consider, you know, continue to place the orders in a relatively soft investment environment for themselves, too.

In the year ahead, we'll be seeking additional funding and continuing to optimize our funding mix as we build out the next three stations for the year ahead and the three stations for the year beyond that. Obviously, you know, we'll provide more information to the market at the right time for that. Finally, regarding the ReFuels listing itself, we are making good progress on the work stream, which considers whether or not we look at a dual listing on the AIM or an uplisting to the Oslo Børs. Again, we will provide more information to the market in due course, that's progressing well. Thank you. Back to Philip.

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

Yeah. Thank you, Baden. Just getting used to this new platform. Then I will do a bit of a summary, a bit of an outlook, and then we will go over to the Q&A session. When we did, when we announced the new structure with Foresight back in April of 2025, we gave, you know, a bit of a target to ourselves, if you want, a bit of a snapshot as to where we think we could be in 2030. This is just an illustration of that, where you're looking at, you know, quarterly EBITDA of GBP ± 30 million by the end of 2030. Currently, you know, we've just announced the quarterly EBITDA, north of GBP 5 million. We feel that we are making very good progress.

Clearly, it's a bit dangerous for me to say here and say that we are definitely on track for hitting this in 2030, but we are making very good progress, and we're very encouraged by the near-term progress we've had and by the visibility that we've got over the next two years. Finally, just to summarize here, we are looking at continuing to grow the volume base here as customers take delivery of more trucks. Baden mentioned, and I've also mentioned, we are in a fairly soft logistics sentiment, logistics market, not only in the U.K., but across Europe. Clearly, if that picks up in a substantial way through the next 12 months, then there should be potentially some upside there for us. We are growing out our station network.

Yes, we've got 16 grid-connected stations today and 11 MRSs. Yes, we've got spare capacity within those stations, but you have to remember that just having 16 stations doesn't mean that we're covering the country sufficiently. You know, we are constantly asked by our customers on a weekly basis, "Please, please, can you get a station in this and this area? Because we'd like to order 30, 50, 100 trucks in that area." Finally, you know, we've now got a couple of good quarters here, where we can really start to extract efficiencies, implement efficiencies, and improve margins through RTFCs and biomethane, and as a result, we are increasing our guidance for this year yet again. Thank you. I will then.

Sorry, leave it there. We will stop sharing, and we will now go into the Q&A session, which I presume will work very, very smoothly.

Operator

Yes. Thanks, Philip. We move into the Q&A session, and we have received a couple of questions here. First one on the biofuel market. "There seems to be a lot of turmoil in the global biofuels markets. It would be good to get your view on how this might affect ReFuels?

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

Excellent question. Not sure I agree with the word turmoil. The biofuel markets globally, there's always stuff that happens in those markets. There's always politics that come in there. There's always, you know, global trade flows that change. The, you know, as with any policy-driven markets, there's always going to be pros and cons in those markets. Yes, there is quite a lot of things happening within the EU currently. I mentioned the German market in particular. That is linked to the RED III, Renewable Energy Directive III implementation. That is not only happening in Germany, but across a lot of other member states. There's also, of course, some of the volatility happening in the U.S. biofuel market in regards to policies there.

We have to take a sort of a step back as well and say, "This is normal." You know, this is how all these markets have always been. In general, I would say that the developments we're seeing in the markets now are more positive than negative for us. The underlying trend here is that a lot more biofuels will be required, not only for road transport, but also for sustainable aviation fuel and maritime. You might say, "Well, why is, you know, aviation fuel and maritime relevant for us?" A lot of the feedstocks that are used in those markets, a lot of the finished products in those markets, could also be used potentially for road transport biodiesel, and it's ultimately the spread between fossil diesel and biodiesel that sets the value of the RTFCs.

Overall, I don't quite agree with the word turmoil. There is a bit of, you know, funkiness going on in the biofuel markets globally, but it's always been like that, and in general, we think three to five years ahead when it comes to where do we think the biofuel markets are gonna be, and the trend that we're seeing three to five years ahead is looking quite supportive to what we're doing.

Operator

Good, a follow-up to that of biomethane, it looks like people across the logistics industry are talking a lot more about biomethane as a fuel now than they were just 12 months ago. Why do you think that is?

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

I can't disagree with that at all. It's absolutely the case. I think there are two main factors for that. First of all, we're now starting. This isn't, by the way, this isn't only a U.K. thing. We're seeing the same on the continent as well. I attended a conference in Germany in November, which usually is only pretty much biodiesel. That's no longer the case. There was a lot of talk about biomethane, actually so much, that next year they're looking to add an additional day to this conference, which is only gonna be about biomethane and biomethane for transport across Europe. Yes, I completely agree with that. Two main reasons, that I can think of and that we recognize.

One is we're starting to see critical mass now on adoption. This is no longer one or two or three fleets that have really, you know, strong ESG drivers behind them. We're truly seeing mass adoption across a lot of different sectors, whether it is food, retail, parcel delivery, general haulage, you name it. That's number one. I think the second part is the reality is finally setting in, that electric trucks, hydrogen trucks are not being developed and are not the solution on the timeline that people thought they would be. Now is the time to act, to look at what is actually working. I've mentioned, you know, HVO works, yes, but there is a cost issue to it currently.

Biomethane ticks all boxes. That's why it's becoming more and more, month by month, becoming more and more prominent within the discussion space because it works. There is a business case there today. It's scalable for the coming decades.

Operator

Good. We have another question on 6x2 trucks. "In your December numbers published on LinkedIn, you wrote that there was more than 150 6x2 CNG trucks on the road. Now you write more than 130. What is correct?"

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

You have to remember that in there are some data points here with regards to some of the old 6x2s that are in there. Some vehicles are on the road during certain periods of time, some are off the road. What I think more importantly there is to understand, is that vehicle usage isn't linear. Just because a vehicle doesn't turn up, one month, doesn't mean that it's off the road permanently. It might be doing other stuff. All right? What we see on the, in the 6x2 market, in general, is there is a lack of demo trucks on the road currently. We are getting our own demo trucks very, very soon.

Over the next six to 12 months, we could be doing with a lot more demo trucks. We're trying to deal with that. We are aware of a backlog of well over 100, maybe as far as 150 fleets, who want to demo the 6x2 going forward. We're seeing very encouraging signs of orders being put through the system. The fact that you see, you know, 10 trucks, 20 trucks here or there, month-on-month, there's gonna be a bit of noise in the data. You know, look at this on a quarterly basis. That will be a lot more reliable than what you're currently tracking it month-on-month.

Overall, what we're seeing on the 6x2 is pretty much following the trajectory that we were hoping for, which is incredible interest across the industry. The biggest impediment today to the growth and to the rapid growth in the 6x2 adoption is the number of demo trucks on the road, we're doing what we can there together with the OEM to sort that solution, or sorry, to sort that problem.

Operator

Good. Next question on competition: are you seeing any changes in the competitive landscape, potential new entrants in the U.K. and Europe?

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

I mean, no. It maybe sounds arrogant, and I don't mean to come across like that, but, no, we're not really seeing a lot of competition to what we do. What we do might seem quite simple on the outside. You secure some land, you get some approvals, you pour some concrete, and you bolt down some compressors. There's a lot more to it than that. You know, as an example, if you want to build a station, you clearly want to build it where your customers can potentially be. You need a good capacity pipeline, gas pipeline. You need a good capacity electrical connection. You need good planning prospects, meaning you can't have any issues with environmental surveys. You need good drainage, you know, you know, possibilities.

You need to have an overall assessment on the traffic layout, and so on and so forth. Once you've ticked all these boxes and you've successfully negotiated with the landowner, which can take you 12 months, you need to go into planning. Planning should be taking you 16 weeks, 20 weeks, whatever it is. We're currently seeing it taking maybe a year, maybe longer. They slap you with six months of pre-commencement conditions, and then you can build, and that takes eight months. Doing what we do isn't just about securing some land, pouring some concrete, and bolting down some compressors.

First of all, there's a lot of IP in how we develop our stations, how we operate our stations efficiently, unmanned, et cetera, but just purely getting to a so-called shovel-ready state, we can put a digger on site, and then there's an eight-month sort of a period that starts, is an incredibly long and frustrating process. It's not a function of money, it's a function of time, and currently, we're not seeing competitors trying to emulate what we do in that space. Does that mean we're gonna be, you know, free of competition forever? Of course not, but we're just not seeing it today.

Operator

Good. Next question that's on hydrogen, actually. What's your view on the future of hydrogen in heavy goods vehicles, and are ReFuels, CNG Fuels, looking at this type, fuel type into the future? Also, where are you sourcing the biomethane, mainly from U.K. manufacturers or imported from other jurisdictions?

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

We don't see hydrogen as playing any meaningful role whatsoever in decarbonizing heavy goods vehicles. We see that that energy vector may or may not play a role in decarbonizing heavy industry, such as refineries and, you know, steel mills, et cetera. In road transport, no, we have completely closed that door, as have pretty much all of our customers. I would say all of our major customers are no longer seeing that hydrogen will play a role in that space. When it comes to biomethane sourcing, we source biomethane all across Europe. We source in the U.K. We source in the EU. We have the ability to mass balance biomethane into the U.K. using the Pan-European pipeline grid.

As such, it's always derived unsubsidized biomethane that we have the ability to source all across Europe, and we have an excellent team located in The Hague, that carries out that activity and has been doing that since 2016.

Operator

I'll follow up to the sourcing. Is the increasing interest in biomethane more broadly having any impact on sourcing?

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

No, it's not. We are. Yes, there are other transport modes, such as maritime, who are looking for biomethane as well. As of today, the reality is there is more biomethane chasing transport than there is transport demand. We're fully sourced for 2026. If we had, you know, double the demand, theoretical double the demand for 2026, we could probably fill it. No, as of today, the biomethane market is long. My crystal ball doesn't stretch out to 2040 or 2035, but as far out as it does stretch, we don't see a supply shortage of unsupported biomethane from a waste feedstock that we can source and put through our station network.

Operator

Okay, there's one question on guidance. You are raising your EBITDA guidance for the second time this year, but seems you have the same long-term outlook towards around GBP 100 million in 2030. Why is that?

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

Do you wanna give that one a go, Baden?

Baden Gowrie-Smith
CFO and Managing Director, ReFuels

Yep, sure. We have increased our guidance, which is obviously, yep, which we're very pleased about. You know, our guidance to 2030 is. Okay, I guess people always say you be careful guiding on both on value and on time. What we're trying to say is that by 2030, this, what we see the capacity for our station network to generate that GBP 100 million of EBITDA. Whether it happens in a, you know, a year or two before or ends up happening afterwards, we can't really control that timeline.

That timeline is controlled by the margins in the market, the volumes that come through, that go through the stations, how cost efficient we are as a business, and obviously, generally, the growth of the market. You know, timeline-wise, that's our guidance for when we, when we believe we can get there. If we get there sooner or we get there around then, I think the most important part of the discussion is that we believe that's more than capable of getting there. The market has more than enough demand to get us to the truck levels there, and we believe we've got margins that will sustainably get us there as well. I think that's the answer.

I think, yeah, very happy to raise guidance. It obviously puts us on a track towards that GBP 100 million of EBITDA and hopefully beyond. Yes, it's a, I guess it's a function of time to get to that quantum.

Operator

Good, we have the one final question here. How long do you expect the soft market for new trucks in the U.K. to continue, and what's needed for this to change? Any specific indicators you pay attention to?

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, clearly, once again, my crystal ball there, you know, is only as good as the information we get. First of all, it's been going on for an extended period of time now. It's not a new thing that ordering trucks and the logistics market work, you know, are cyclical, and there is cyclicality in it. We are hearing, you know, anecdotally, I wouldn't want to be quoted mentioning who it's from, but anecdotally, that the picture this year looks a bit better than it did, so calendar year 2026 looks a bit better than or is starting to look a bit better than early part of 2025. Will that carry through the year? Let's see.

I think the consensus that we were hearing from truck manufacturers and others was that they were expecting the market to start to pick up in H2 of this year. We will be paying attention clearly to new registrations, more importantly, what are we hearing from our customers? You know, what is their day-to-day business looking like? What is their volume looking like, et cetera. We've got our finger on the pulse. I would say it's looking marginally more positive than it did this time last year, you know, we're still only into, you know, end of February. Give us a couple more months, and I think we'll have a better view of the situation. You know, we're cautiously optimistic that 2026 is when we're turning a corner or when the industry is turning a corner.

I mean, we continue to grow, as I said in my remarks earlier, clearly, if we would've had an overall growing market, we would've had a bit more growth on our end as well. You know, once it turns a corner, that will benefit us as well. It's not, you know, critical for our business, you know, it is gonna give us a bit of a backwind.

Operator

Good. As there are no more questions, I'll hand it back to you, Philip, to close the call.

Philip Fjeld
CEO, ReFuels

Thank you. Thank you for some great questions, by the way. Getting more and more encouraged each time we do these presentations, that we've got more and more people listening in and giving us relevant and pretty sharp, pointed questions, so thank you for those. Really excited about the quarter that we've just delivered. You know, thank you to the team, to, you know, the 100-plus people who turn up at work every day and who've been working very diligently to turning CNG Fuels into what it currently is. More importantly, I think we're only getting started. There's so much more potential that we can exploit within, you know, the current base that we've got, but we're really encouraged by getting more stations on the road, adding more customers as we go by.

As such, as Baden mentioned, you know, that GBP 100 million target by 2030, it's great to have something out there like this that we can be sort of linked to, if you want. Yeah, thank you very much. Really, really proud of the team, and looking forward to the next quarterly presentation, and hopefully see you all then. Thanks.

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