Throughout the recorded presentation, investors will be in listen-only mode. Questions are encouraged, and they can be submitted at any time using the Q&A tab situated on the right-hand corner of your screen. Simply type in your questions and press send. The company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives during the meeting itself. However, the company can review all questions submitted today and publish responses where it is appropriate to do so. Before we begin, I would like to submit the following poll, and I would now like to hand you over to the management team of ReFuels, Philip and Baden. Good morning to you both.
Good morning, and thank you for that introduction, and good morning to those of you watching this live and to those of you watching it on catch-up. We've got a couple of exciting things to discuss or present today. We announced a week and a bit ago that we've now closed a debt raising, which we'll touch upon, which means that we can now go into construction of more stations. Given that a bit of time has passed since then, we've also, just this morning, announced our October dispensing figures, so we'll also highlight that as we go through. As per usual, please take this opportunity to submit some questions if you have any, and we'll do our best to get through those afterwards. Just a brief reminder of what we're doing: we are decarbonizing heavy goods vehicles here in the U.K.
If you look at that segment in particular, they make up about 1% of vehicles on the road, but they emit close to 20% of greenhouse gas emissions. If you deal with that 1% of vehicle mass on the road, you are removing close to one-fifth of all greenhouse gas emissions from road transport. If we then take a look at the fuel that we are providing, which is biomethane, which is 100% sustainable and renewable fuel made from a waste feedstock, how does that compare? If you're a typical fleet customer in the U.K., how does that compare to running on regular diesel, and how does it compare to running on HVO, which is 100% biodiesel? Over the last two years, you've seen we've had approximately 25% savings of running a bio-CNG truck versus a diesel truck.
If you then compare that to HVO, now on the left-hand graph here, you see that the savings over HVO have been in the 30% range, and now they're powering north of 40%. Large savings there, cash-on-cash savings. If you then move on to the next one, you see that there's typically 95 or, sorry, 85-90% greenhouse gas emission savings by running on CNG or bio-CNG versus diesel. There are also feedstocks and production methods that can take that negative, meaning you can get more than 100% savings by running on bio-CNG. Then there's a typical question we get, which is, okay, so how much feedstock potential is there for biomethane? Is this because everyone sort of knows that there is maybe a limited amount of feedstock to produce biodiesel? What is the situation for biomethane?
We're only scratching the surface of the potential for biomethane, which you'll see on the right-hand side. We are aware, or the industry is aware of close to EUR 30 billion going into that sector over the next five years, and we continue to hear of new projects pretty much constantly, so I presume that number is higher now. There's a strong pipeline of growth for biomethane production going forward. If you then take a quick snapshot as to where we are today, we've got 16 stations. We've just announced that number 17 has gone into construction. We are refueling north of 2,100 trucks. As of October, that's 2,130, 31, I think it is to be accurate. We're very proud that we saved north of 220,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions across our customer base, which has now grown to north of 170 customers.
This is not anymore a niche application that a few select large PLCs are using. This is also now being adopted across a much wider spectrum when it comes to hauliers in the U.K. In April, we announced a restructuring or an update, if you want, to how we have the business structure with Foresight, where we have essentially brought the two revenue-generating elements, which is what we do with biomethane sourcing and certificate generation, and the station operations and therefore the customer relationships we have with the downstream customers. All of that was brought in under CNG Fuels, which has put us in a very strong balance sheet position, and which is one of the reasons, or the main reason, that we have now been able to raise debt through a process that Baden will touch upon, but at attractive terms.
What does a typical CNG station look like? This is Livingston, up in Scotland. Not that far away from Edinburgh, our second station up there. We opened this in May/June of this year. At full capacity, we'll be able to refuel north of 600 trucks a day. These are unmanned facilities, very, very efficient pieces of infrastructure when it comes to dispensing a renewable energy vector into vehicles. This is already seeing good adoption or good utilization already. Why? Because we've got Tesco just up the road with their largest distribution center in the U.K. If we then look at where we've come from with regards to market penetration and where we hope and think that we're going, currently about 10% of all so-called 4x2 trucks in the U.K., these are articulated trucks. 4x2 articulated trucks in the U.K. are CNG trucks that run exclusively through our network.
There's 21,500 4x2s in the U.K. So there, by having a 10% market share or getting close to 10% market share now, we've taken that from basically 0 to 10% over the last 10 years. If you then look on the right-hand side, that is a 6x2 market or 6x2 truck. That is a 44-ton truck application where the truck manufacturers haven't been producing a CNG truck up until basically the last 18 months. What has that meant? It has meant we haven't been able to penetrate that market. Those trucks are now starting to be seen on the road. Not only are we seeing very, very strong trial and demo demand for these trucks, we're also now starting to see a really good order book starting to fill.
If we can replicate the 10% that we've got on the left-hand side for the 4x2 market in the 6x2 market, we have not only done a good job, but that is very meaningful, as you will see later on also for the potential earnings of the company. These are just two examples of large fleets that are now adopting CNG or bio-CNG at scale. Tesco I already mentioned up in Livingston, and then we have Co-op. Both of these fleets have plans for further adoption over the years to come. Of course, both of these are supermarkets. Now we have 8 out of the 10 supermarkets in the U.K., the largest supermarkets in the U.K., now running their trucks or some of their trucks on biomethane. This is a trend that we expect to see going forward. With that, I'll hand it over to Baden, and then I'll come back in for a bit of a summary in a bit.
Thank you very much, Philip. Yeah, just to reiterate our plan for the next three years, it's to take our current network of 16 stations up to 25 stations. Clearly, we're building number 17 at the moment. To essentially double the capacity through the station network for the station network to 20,000 vehicles per day capacity. We are now fully funded from an equity perspective in the business. We can't see any foreseeable requirement for it to raise equity for the time being. We believe the station rollout will now be able to be fully funded via cash flow and debt facilities, such as the GBP 25 million five-year debt facility we've just taken out with the Foresight Group. We also have the ability to dial up or dial down the speed of the rollout in the event that customer demand requires it.
Of course, certificate prices and general market conditions are favorable in the event we need more stations. To just have a couple of words on the debt facility we have, we have just recently taken out with Foresight. We conducted a comprehensive market exercise in the first half of the calendar year. We received a number of term sheets, which were very compelling. Foresight Group, our existing funders, came in with a very attractive offer, which we feel was the best suited for the current stage of the business. The rate on it is market-tested. It is an easy one to repay early if need be, which is attractive in the event that we want to upsize it or take on lower-cost debt in the future. It is also simple to draw down because this is, again, an existing funder who understands the assets we are building. Is already within.
The capital structure and can therefore be more flexible when considering how it's drawn down and how it fits into what we already have. Of course, this piece of debt coming in as a senior lender. Of course, we're very much aligned, which is fantastic for the growth of the business and the plans of the business over the coming years. That enables another degree of flexibility when it comes to funding and the speed we want to continue the rollout. Altogether, we're very pleased with this and the faith that Foresight has shown to continue their investment in the business. Just to quickly touch on the station economics, obviously these change over time as we've developed the business. There are now more trucks on the road. We have faster uptake and we expect adoption rates to continue to grow in the years ahead.
If you take a snapshot really of what we sort of see at the station now when we're thinking about building out the network and what we're looking for, average CapEx on the station is around GBP 8 million. The payback period without RTFCs is about five years. If you include RTFCs at sensible prices, sort of around where they are now, you can bring that payback period on the combined business where we are looking at both the station revenues and the RTFC revenues, and you can reduce that payback period by about two years. Very attractive payback periods on the CapEx invested. Of course, these will, again, vary from site to site. We are now focusing our efforts on higher pressure tier sites. We have more available sites to choose from. We have more than 100 in our pipeline.
We can focus on those sites that have better economics that can drive adoption where customers can essentially roll out their adoption plans at sort of the most rapid rate possible. Once again, there are the IRRs that we look at here, 25-30%, actually 15-year unlevered IRRs. Of course, as you have just seen, we intend to use leverage as well so we can increase those IRRs from there too. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Baden. As Baden mentioned, if you look at the typical stations that we're now looking to fund through the debt facility, these are higher pressure tiered stations. That also means we get slightly higher capacity, potential capacity at these stations. If you look at Magor here, got into construction just a couple of weeks ago. That will be in operation probably sometime in the middle of next year. We've got Swindon, another one in the high pressure tier range here that we're looking to move into construction on pretty soon. The third one we haven't selected yet. We have a strong pipeline coming through with regards to sites that we can build.
We will be very selective in order to make sure that we pick those that, of course, provide us with the best return, but also which are the most important with regards to our customers, which can provide us with the best loading and early utilization of those stations. We operate under the so-called RTFO, Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation. That is a biofuel blending obligation here in the U.K. It's important to understand it's not a subsidy. It's a market-based mechanism on the principle, basically, the polluter pays. What we're seeing now and what we're going through. What you see here is a trajectory out to 2032 where the blending obligation is stepping up every year.
The Department for Transport, a couple of months ago, said they are aiming to come out with a consultation early next year where they want to consult on a range of aspects, but one of them is to consult on whether that blending obligation uptick every year should be increased and should be taken further out than 2032. It is important here to understand this policy does not end in 2032. It is just the increase that, as of today, stops going up in 2032. This policy does not have an end date, which is important for people to understand. Certificates are an important part of what we do. They are an important part of our cash generation. Of course, by putting biomethane through the stations, we also are able to offer our customers running on a 100% sustainable and green product. These certificate values have historically been volatile.
We don't expect that necessarily to change in the future, that all of a sudden it's going to become rock solid. If you look at where we've come from and where we're currently trending, the average price over the last seven years has basically been 25 pence. If you look at where we've been trading over the last four or five months, we were sort of stuck in the range of 25-26 pence, maybe slightly below, slightly above. In the last six to eight weeks, we've trended up, and now the price is basically 27-28 pence per RTFC. Why is that? We are seeing the overall biofuel market in Europe and globally started to tighten, and that has an upward price pressure on certificates. If you then look at how are we doing now with regards to earnings.
It takes time to build what we've built. We've been doing this for 11 years. Basically, we're in the process of, and we have turned a corner this year in the sense that the underlying business is now profitable. We are guiding, we provide guidance at our earnings end of August with regards to 8-10 million in EBITDA generation this financial year. We're on track for that, of course, because you haven't heard anything from us. If you then look at what do we believe we can achieve between now and 2030. I know that's far out in time. If you look at that, we are on track as of today of generating what we believe is an achievable target of 100 million of EBITDA, Annualized EBITDA by the end of 2030.
If you then look at where we're trading with regards to share prices, I'll leave it up to you guys whether you believe we're undervalued, overvalued, or we're at fair value for now. This is just here to illustrate the potential that is there if we are successful in achieving what we believe is a highly achievable goal in 2030 of getting to that $100 million EBITDA annualized threshold by then. Of course, that would, all else equal, require a fundamental repricing of where we are today. I'll leave it up to you guys to judge how we're doing and how we're delivering on that over the coming quarters. Just to summarize, nice picture here of three Tesco trucks. What we're increasingly seeing is the fleets, the need to decarbonize, are increasingly coming off the fence. They can no longer wait.
They might have ambitious targets to get to 50% decarbonized by 2030, 100% by 2035. That means they can't wait anymore. We're increasingly seeing that biomethane for many fleets is becoming the preferred choice. When sourcing biomethane, I've just mentioned we operate under the RTFO. As such, we're in a robust market-driven place. I stress again, it's not a subsidy. As such, we are now in a good position with regards to balance in the overall biofuel market, which is now providing some upward pressure on certificate prices. Finally, we've closed a debt facility. Yes, in the future, we aim to refinance that out and probably grow the debt in the future. However, what's more important probably here is that we are fully equity funded. We cannot see a need for future equity that is required within the business.
Of course, things can change, M&A activity, what have you not. Of course, if we were to go down that route, then we're looking at something that's value accretive. If it is organic growth, then as of today, we don't see a requirement for a debt raise because as of such, we are fully funded. With that, we will take some questions. Let's see what's come in here. All right. Will the debt raised cover the planned rollout to 25 stations?
Have you printed that one?
Yep.
Yeah. No, it will not cover the full, will not cover the full rollout to 25 stations. What our plan is, is to essentially look at a combination of debt and cash flow from the business to fund the rollout to 25 stations. We have the GBP 25 million facility that we have currently, plus some cash flow. We will fund the next three. We have obviously a growing amount of cash being generated by the business. That amount will dictate the speed at which we want to then bring on any additional debt facility capacity, as well as the amount of cash flow we want to allocate to the remainder of that rollout. As Philip said, no more requirement for equity when it comes to the organic growth of business. We'll look at a combination of cash flow, earnings, and debt to complete the 25 stations.
Thanks, Baden. What impact will current RTFC strength have on your forecasts? I can provide a bit of clarity on that one. First of all, we are presenting earnings at the end of the month. I do not want to go in and provide any positive or negative commentary on where we are on our earnings guidance. We will provide that then. All else equal, clearly it is positive for us to see that there is strength in the RTFC market. That said, we do sell RTFCs forward. We do lock in spreads forward in time. I just want to make it clear that you should not always just look at the actual spot price of RTFCs for the last month. We will have forward sold RTFCs as such. Of course, all else equal, it is a positive for us. More importantly, it is also a reflection of.
A strengthening biodiesel price, which as such takes me on to the next question here, which is, is HVO your main competing fuel? The answer there is yes. There are some, I think, misunderstandings, misconceptions out there that we are in fierce competition with LNG, Bio-LNG, or potentially electric or hydrogen. Hydrogen, we can park because we are not seeing that at all for now. The main competition, if you are a fleet that wants to decarbonize, you today essentially have two options. Either you use biomethane, and that will then be compressed, which we offer, or it will be LNG. We are not seeing really a lot of direct competition from LNG. Why? Because you have certain fleets who want to go down the LNG route, and they will not necessarily go CNG.
Then you have a n increasingly large portion of fleets that want to go down the CNG route. However, we are always being benchmarked to the alternative. If a fleet manager sits down, they'll say, "Okay, I can run my current diesel truck on HVO immediately," meaning they can run it on regular diesel on a Monday or on a Tuesday or a Wednesday, they can run it on 100% HVO. That is, of course, what we're being benchmarked against. What we're seeing now is that whilst HVO has had a two-year period there or thereabouts where it has been only marginally more expensive than regular diesel, regular fossil diesel, we're now starting to see that price spread blow out quite a bit, which of course makes us and bio-CNG a lot more attractive. I can't remember which slide number it is, but slide number.
Three or four, whatever it is, where we are showing exactly that, that the premium of HVO to bio-CNG is currently increasing quite considerably. Next one. Our 6x2 is now in operation. What is happening with orders? Yes, they are in operation. We have now got north of 100 6x2s in operation out of the 2,100-plus trucks that our customers have got. So, round numbers, about 5% of vehicles on the road currently are 6x2s. The order book is firming up nicely. The biggest thing that has really happened over the last year is two things. One, Scania have also brought out a 6x2 offering. Iveco did have a 6x2 offering, although it had maybe some perceived issues with it. Now Iveco has released a new model year of 6x2s.
Scania have come to the 6x2 party as well, which they launched their first 6x2 CNG truck in June of last year. We have now got two manufacturers. We have now got a fairly large fleet of demo trucks out there so that fleets can demo before they order. We are also seeing orders placed before some fleets get to or choose to demo them. All in all, very strong and encouraging picture of the 6x2s. It is still early in the day, but give us a couple more months, we will have a lot more data points on that. Yes, it is looking good. We are really encouraged by the interest and the uptake so far. We have got one here. Liquidity in the stock is very low. Is there a plan to fix it?
I'll maybe just give that a tiny bit and then give Baden some airtime as well. Yes, we are acutely aware of that issue. We are looking at ways of fixing that. We will provide more updates on that in our quarterlies in the next three or four weeks. I don't know if you've got anything more you want to put in there, Baden?
Nothing more for me for the time being, but we'll provide an update at the end of the month for our quarterly.
Thanks. You mentioned strong demand from fleet owners transitioning to bio-CNG. Can you quantify the expected customer growth and contract structure with major partners? Let's do the contract structure first. All of our customers have to sign a fuel sales agreement. You can't just turn up at a station and use your credit card. These are corporate customers as such. Those contracts have a certain validity, lock in certain price points, but it doesn't necessarily lock in a fixed set of volume. If you look at the uptake here, and I think this is an important one, we have historically been quite reliant on a small number of customers who've had maybe 80-90% of the volume allocated to a fairly small number of customers. Those have typically been in a couple of segments such as supermarkets, parcel retailers, etc.
With the 6x2s now coming in, we're seeing a much broader range of customers here, which of course is good for us in a number of ways. We get to tap into a much larger market, which I showed previously on the slides, the 4x2 versus the 6x2 market. It also gives us very good diversification with regards to sector diversification. If a sector in this part of the economy has a certain downturn, we do not get hit as hard. Of course, secondly, it is good to have a lot more customers. As such, we can have a greater spread with regards to where the volume sits. Anything else you want to add there, Baden?
Yeah, probably. Actually, as Philip says, we've obviously got a very strong position in the public access market. Obviously, everyone knows if you've watched our presentations before that very nearly all of the CNG vehicles in the country come through our network at the moment. CNG vehicles specifically come through our network at the moment. We're obviously planning, we're trying to grow that network as quickly as possible to add more capacity for those customers to come to. We design and build our stations near their depots. We are fundamentally public, but act as a private actor in a very important part of our customers' logistics by being so close to them. We're also looking at different ways we can provide additional services to our customers. You may have seen our announcement a few weeks ago.
We have now done the first fixed price contract for one of our customers. We expect that to be really popular going forward as we continue to be a larger part of our customers' logistics. Of course, that has volume implications for fixing volume through our network over time. We are looking at other contract structures as well, which can continue to add benefits and add services to our customers that are of a more long-term nature as well. Yeah, we will continue to update the market as those are rolled out.
Thanks, Baden. In addition, can you expand on the operational cash flows from contracts covering future expansion and how that factors into the modeling of new sites and payback periods? Let's take the last one first. New sites and payback periods. There are many factors that go into us deciding where we're going to build next. It, of course, looks at—we do a financial model, which has CapEx plays into it. Are we on a high-pressure grid? What is the overall capacity, electricity usage we need to have at those sites, and so on and so forth. More importantly, on the customer side of things, whilst if you looked at what we did three, four, five years ago, we might have needed to build stations in parts of the country to open up an entire new part of the country.
The first station we built in Scotland, Bellshill, was critical because, of course, you can't expect Scottish fleets to start adopting CNG when they can't trial a vehicle. They can't trial a vehicle until you have a station there. Of course, now with our second station in Scotland, you see we get good loading from day one. We are now beyond where we need to put a station in a certain geographical location in order to open up a key part of the geography. We can now be a lot more selective. That is how we're now thinking. You'll see that come through in the economics of the next sites.
With regards to the operational cash flows from those, again, that is mainly a function of utilization, both with regards to the earnings at that station and, of course, the volume that that station can contribute with regards to sourcing of biomethane. It is about utilization. That is why we are choosing the sites that we now are choosing because we are confident we will have good utilization there from early on in the life of those sites. We have a final question here so far. If there are anybody else who wants to send in, then please feel free to do so. How secure is the supply of biomethane? What impact do you think the development of the SAF, which is sustainable aviation fuel, and maritime biomethane demand have on the business? Excellent question.
It is one that is a bit hard to give an accurate answer to because some of these policies are early on in their life. Sustainable aviation fuel mandates came into force earlier this year, so 1st of January. We are not really seeing an impact there on biomethane demand because biomethane for now is not really a feedstock that is used to produce SAF. Maritime is slightly different. There is a mandate that is coming in. There has been a bit of a setback with discussions going on at the IMO level. We are starting to see demand from the maritime sector for biomethane. Is that going to be an issue for us in the future? We are confident it will not for a whole range of reasons. Some of those are commercially sensitive, some not.
If you look at the overall demand picture for biomethane, strong demand for biomethane, whether it's only from the road transport sector or whether it's also from the maritime sector or other sectors, is good. That is going to mean that we are going to have a lot more investment going into biomethane production across Europe. On one of the slides, I can't remember if it was slide three or four, we show that EUR 27 billion. These figures are probably now six months out of date, and we'd guess they're probably larger now. Let's use round numbers. Close to EUR 30 billion is being allocated already for growth in the sector. I mean, that is going to bring on a lot of new production. We do not expect it to stop there. Why? Because the feedstock availability for going into biomethane is still largely untapped in large parts of Europe.
Yes, there will be competing uses for biomethane in the future. Then again, there are swings and roundabouts here. Having strong demand for a product such as biomethane will also incentivize new production. It is also feedstock dependent. Certain feedstocks are better. Biomethane from certain feedstocks is better allocated to go to the U.K. Feedstocks from other feedstocks are better used for producing biomethane that might go to Germany, Netherlands, etc. There is not a clear answer here other than that we are as confident as we can be at this point in time that we are looking at a healthy supply-demand balance for biomethane also into the future. That was that. No more questions. Thank you all for those questions. Thank you for taking the time in catching up on what we are doing. We have earnings at the end of November. No doubt, there's some interesting updates in there as well for you. I look forward to seeing you again then. Thank you so much.
Fantastic. Philip, Baden, thank you for updating investors today. Could I please ask investors not to close the session as you'll now be automatically redirected to provide your feedback in order that the board can better understand your views and expectations? This will only take a few moments to complete, and it will surely be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of ReFuels, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation. Good morning to you all.