Might look like waste to you, but what I see is resources. I see solutions to be developed and business opportunities to be captured. Today, we will tell the story about TOMRA, a company that is perfectly positioned to capture the vast opportunities within circular economy and resource optimization, to the benefit of the planet and to our investors, and it will be a story about innovation, entrepreneurship, and action. Good morning, everyone. My name is Tove Andersen, and I'm the CEO and President of TOMRA. Welcome to our Capital Markets Day 2024. When we met at our last Capital Markets Day, two years ago, we launched our updated strategy to accelerate growth and lift our profitability. We launched our targets linked to doubling our business within five years and to lift our profitability to an 18% EBITDA.
Since then, we have had good progress in many areas, but also we have met challenges and setbacks, especially then in our Food business. However, the fundamental drivers for our business hasn't changed since then, and that's why today, at this Capital Markets Day, we are confirming the strategy that we put in place two years ago. Our strategy to accelerate growth in the core and develop adjacent opportunities, while we become a fully circular business, and a safe and fair, and inclusive place to work. Also, we are today confirming or updating our targets towards 2030, and we are then, again, targeting a 15% CAGR over the cycle. We are confirming our ambition level to reach 18% EBITDA.
Also today, we are launching a new target linked to return on capital employed, because we want to be explicit about what kind of return requirements we are putting on the new investments that we are making. So we're targeting then a return on capital employed above 18%. Our dividend policy stays firm, the same as our target to be an investment-grade company, and we are fully committed to our ambition to Net Zero by 2050, and to have a Paris-aligned pathway towards that. And these targets and our strategy is an ambitious strategy, but why do I believe that this is achievable and that I'm committed to deliver on this? It is because of what we have learned through our history.
It is because of the unique position that we have in TOMRA, and it is because of the strong drivers, the strong fundamental drivers that we are seeing around us. So let me talk you through those, starting with the history. In TOMRA, in 52 years, we have shaped circularity and resource optimization through innovation, entrepreneurship, and thought leadership. And it all started in 1972, when we invented the first automated reverse vending machine, and this was for refillable bottles in Norway. And since then, our Collection business has been on a tremendous growth journey. And even today, 52 years later, deposit return system is the only proven solution to achieve more than 90% collection rates of beverage containers.
Collection today is still half our business, and with this, you know, the significant installed base we have and the pipeline on new deposit markets, I'm confident that this business will provide significant growth opportunities for TOMRA going forward, which Marius will tell you more about later. In 2004 , TOMRA ventured into a new market segment and a new technology by acquiring Titech. Titech was a company that had then created the market for sensor-based sorting of beverage cartons, and it was, when we acquired them, a small company of 40 people. That small company has organically grown into what today is our Recycling sorting division. A division with almost 1,000 employees, a turnover close to EUR 300 million and that has or consistently delivered EBITDA above 20%.
Volker will later today talk to you about how we continue to shape and create the markets within Recycling sorting. In 2011, we broaden our portfolio or our segments within sensor-based solutions by entering the food processing industry, and we did that through four acquisitions that happened over seven years. Even though our Food business have had these challenges the last couple of years, we still believe that the Food business provides good and strong growth opportunities for TOMRA. Harald will, in his presentation, give you an update on the restructuring and also what we see as the plan ahead, but also, as we communicated on the last Capital Markets Day, we are not stopping here. We are continuing creating and developing new businesses. Today we
call that, and we have it under the umbrella of TOMRA Horizon, where we do adjacent business building, but building it upon our technology and expertise. And Lars will tell you more about that and our existing status of the three ventures that we have later today. So we have a strong track record for innovation and growth, and we have consistently delivered profitable growth, while also we have enabled significant emission avoidance through our products. As you will see from the graph here, we have, over the last 10 years, created an average annual growth of 9%. At the same time, we have increased the dividend payout with 11%, with an 11% average annual increase. And last but not least, our products has increased the avoided emissions.
The more we sell and the more our customers buy our products, we are reducing the CO2 emissions, and we have then, through this period, increased the avoided emission with a 6% CAGR. This is then why we are confirming our strategy and targets today, that we have a good track record. It is also because this period, our 52 years of history, has also created a unique position of TOMRA and coupled them with the fundamental drivers we see. What is then unique with TOMRA? What is special about TOMRA? We are an impact leader, providing thought leadership and pushing the boundaries on technology and solutions. We shape existing markets, and we create new ones. In TOMRA, we are a market maker, a market shaper. We are not a market taker.
And we use our 50+ history and our experience from hundred markets globally to constantly develop new solutions, best practices, and to do advocacy with key stakeholders to drive the world towards higher resource optimization and circularity. And we push the boundaries on technology. Our product is high tech, sensor-based solutions for resource optimization, empowered by AI. And we operate in markets where we take a leading global position and where we can make a meaningful impact to optimize how resources are obtained, used, and reused. Our solution provide real value to the customers by us optimizing their resources. And in all key markets and segments that we operate in, we are the clear leader. And then to our people and culture. Innovation, passion, and responsibility are our core values, and we have an entrepreneurial culture where we empower for ownership.
In TOMRA, you know, our people and culture have always been a key competitive advantage, and we work hard to maintain that. And we believe in a decentralized structure, where we give accountability to ensure customer centricity and speed. And that's why we have a decentralized operating model, characterized by autonomy and accountability. We call our operating model that we are a strategic family builder. We are a family of three divisions and the ventures within Horizon. The three divisions, they have end-to-end responsibility, covering all key functions from production, supply chain, sales, marketing, invoicing, and so forth. And they have a clear P&L responsibility and, autonomy to make prioritization and the trade-offs needed to deliver on their targets and strategies. And we follow them up on a triple bottom line, which means that they need to deliver targets on people, planet, and profit.
When we set up Horizon, there were a few things that we wanted to ensure when setting that up. First of all, we wanted to ensure that the Horizon ventures would not distract the divisions from delivering on their ambitious strategies. So that's why we set it up outside divisions with ring-fenced team. At the same time, we wanted to make sure that we gave the ventures the flexibility needed for them to be able to go after the opportunities that they are addressing. So on Horizon, we have taken some of the kind of best practices from startups. We have it as separate entities, dedicated teams focusing on that. They report to internal boards, each one of them, and we manage them on milestones, and that's also how we then look at deploying capital and more on a project basis.
We in TOMRA want to keep a lean headquarters because we want to prioritize to invest resources close to customers and operations. So, of course, there are certain functions we need to have at group to ensure compliance and reporting, but anything else beyond that, we are very selective on what we decide to run from group. It needs to create significant value if we're going to choose that, because we want to ensure that the divisions have speed, empowerment, and agility. You can see here on this slide currently what are functions that we have at group. We are committed to keep the cost of our headquarters well below 2% of our turnover. That was a bit about what makes TOMRA special, a bit about our unique position.
And I think, you know, the position that we have today is even more relevant than ever, is more valuable than ever, because the drivers for increased circularity and resource optimization have never been stronger than now. And we group the key drivers for our businesses into five buckets: decarbonization, regulation, modernization and automation, demographics, and resource scarcity. And let me start with decarbonization. This, of course, is very known to all of you as a key driver for TOMRA, so that is not new. But what I think is interesting to see is now how businesses and industries are moving towards firm commitments and plans to Net Zero. for example, if you look at Science Based Targets initiative and how many companies that have signed up for that.
If you look at the combined market cap of all companies that have signed up Science Based Targets, that represents 39% of the global market cap of companies, 39%. And actually, the number of companies signing up to SBTi last year doubled and is now 5,900 companies. All of these companies will have very ambitious targets to Net Zero, and part of that will only be able to achieve through circularity. Then to regulation. Regulation has been and will be an important driver for parts of our business. There is significant legislation already in place, which will be a key driver for the growth over the next years. But it's also good to see that there are new legislation coming, and you will hear more about that from some of my colleagues later.
Of course, an example of that is the PPWR, the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation in the EU, that is assumed to be approved during the autumn. Over to modernization and automation. For example, if you look at the current waste management infrastructure, it needs to be modernized if it's going to be able to deliver the quality and the capacity needed to meet the regulation and to meet the decarbonization targets of businesses. Automation, for example, is on the top of the mind of the food processing industry. They want to automate to create consistent quality, to reduce cost, but also to reduce the dependence on labor. To demographics. For us, the kind of key important element of changes in demographics is really about urbanization and a rising middle class.
A rising middle class will push more towards higher climate targets, and for example, they will also change dietary requirements, increasing the demand for fruit and vegetables. And of course, urbanization will require significant investments into improved waste management infrastructure. And then last but not least, resource scarcity. There is an increased understanding and realization that certain material that are critical for us are either scarce or will become scarce. For example, materials required to drive the change into renewable energy. And that, coupled with, you know, the geopolitical tensions, where regions want to become more independent of other regions, creates the demand that these materials, they need to be captured after end of life and reused. So the drivers for our business are strong.
And that's why today we are then confirming our strategy: to accelerate growth in core, develop adjacent businesses, and become a fully circular business, which is fair, safe, and inclusive. The cornerstone of our strategy is to accelerate the core. This is where we will prioritize and deploying most of the resources and capital. Collection and Recycling has shown that they can deliver high growth with good profitability, and we will give priority to those divisions to invest in double-digit growth. in Food, currently, profitability is the focus, and we will wait until we have ensured that we lift the profitability before we will deploy more resources into that. And we are developing adjacent businesses. We have three ventures within Horizon, and this is really about long-term business building.
And the way we think about allocating capital to Horizon, it is based on that we have available capital and that they are meeting stringent capital requirements. And we are also looking at selected M&As in value-adding verticals, which, of course, will be very much business case driven, the way we think about capital allocation there. On fully circular business, we have a holistic sustainability strategy, and we presented that to you at our last Capital Markets Day. And this is constantly evolving as we are maturing our understanding of our impact and the opportunities on that. But the three key areas that we are focusing on, or have done most of the work on the last couple of years, is on climate impact, sustainable product design, and employee value proposition. On climate impact, we are one of those companies that have signed up to Science Based Targets.
We submitted our proposed targets in June, and we expect them to be verified during the autumn. On sustainable product design, you will hear more about that from my colleagues later today. This is about how can we make our own product circular, but also how can we reduce emissions from the use of our products. And on employee value proposition, we are committed to provide a safe working place, where we look after the well-being of our employees, and also where we focus on diversity and inclusion. And through driving this strategy and delivering on this strategy, we will support our vision, which is to lead the resource revolution and to enable a world without waste. If you look at the world's resources today, less than 7% of resources are within a circular value chain, only 7%.
90% ends or are wasted into either landfill, incineration, or even worse, into the environment. And if you look at food production, 30% of consumable food is lost and wasted. This is what we in TOMRA are working on to change. And we are in a very positive and unique and fortunate situation in TOMRA, because for every unit we sell, we make the world a slightly better place. So this ends my introduction, and I will now hand over to my excellent team that will give you updates and more details into the strategies, and how we are going to turn these strategies into reality. Thank you.
Good morning, and also a very warm welcome from my side. My name is Volker Rehrmann. I head up TOMRA's Recycling Division, and I've actually had the privilege to be part of the entire journey that Tove talked about this morning, as one of the founders of a German sorting company and head of technology of that company, which got later acquired by Titech and TOMRA more than 20 years ago, so it was quite an amazing journey, and I'm really proud to be here to present our Recycling division plans for the future going forward. I'm pretty sure you are familiar with what we are doing, but still I would like to start by describing the industries and the value chain position we are in.
What you see here on this slide are, on the left column, all the different industries where we are offering solutions to. We are developing sensor-based sorting solutions for different types of waste materials and also minerals in the mining business. And we are not only present in the plastics packaging sector. You know, it's our biggest sector, but it only accounts for 50%-60%, and that is sometimes new for people. We are also present in many other industries, like automotive, end-of-life vehicle. Metal scrap is a big segment going forward. Electrical, electronics, furniture, future textiles. You will hear later about our new venture in textiles.
And mining, where we are sorting, for example, materials and metals that will be very important for the green transition the industry has ahead of it. And I would also like to mention, you've all heard it, I'm pretty sure it was in the news everywhere, we're also sorting diamonds. And two weeks ago, I'm sure you have heard it, we found the second-biggest diamond ever, 2500 carats. So quite a great news, because it's really in every newspaper all around the world. Unfortunately, it's only a niche business, these very big diamonds. But, but it's still always a quite exciting story. So within those industries, we sort typically in two stages.
The first stage is what we call the recovery stage, where the waste that is collected from the waste management service is transported to so-called MRFs, material recovery facility, the waste sorting plants, where the first step is in sorting this mixed waste into different types of fractions. These materials that are then pre-sorted are shipped then to the second stage, recyclers. They receive as input, quite clean material. Think of, you know, PET, PET bottles. Even if they are 100% clean, the PET bottles have caps of different materials, they have labels of different materials, so another cleaning and sorting process is needed there to really achieve the very high qualities you need to be able to replace the virgin material with that.
So these are the two value chain steps, and that's how we segment basically our business, the material recovery segment and the recycling segment. This slide basically shows you that recycling has become a truly global business. What is colored in blue here, all the countries are countries where we have our solutions in place and operating. And what started 25 years ago in Germany, and this division wouldn't exist if Germany would not have introduced 25 years, or even thirty years ago, the Green Dot system. What started in Europe, and for many years, Europe was our main business region has now developed into a truly global business. And look, I mean, you might be surprised. Look into countries in Africa, how many countries in Africa, and that's not only mining, that's recycling.
We have several countries in Africa that also use our solutions for sorting recyclables. In those countries, it always starts with PET bottles. That there is a high demand for PET material, and that's what it typically starts in those countries. It is quite amazing. We are the global leader in sensor-based sorting for recycling and mining, with an installed base of 10,000 units, and we operate in a market which has a size of approximately EUR 500 million addressable to us. Tove mentioned the kind of macro drivers that drive our business. Regulation, always a key for us. Recycling always needs some regulation to support it, at least there, where it's not a business in itself.
A business in itself, it is for high-value materials like metals, aluminum, but for plastics packaging, it needs the support of regulation there. I mentioned that, you know, everything we are doing now was based on the first introduction of an extended producer responsibility scheme in Germany, more than thirty years ago. It is an important driver for us going forward. Decarbonization is quite new. Tove mentioned it. What does it mean? Pretty much every company that has Science Based Targets is now looking into ways how to reduce the emissions of the production process of their products. Whatever material they use, whether it's plastics, whether it's paper, whether it's wood, whether it's metals, aluminum, they're looking into ways how to reduce the emissions of the production process, and one obvious way is to increase the recycled content.
So this will create, and already does create, a demand for high-quality recycled materials that can be used to increase the recycled content in the product. Modernization and automation, the old MRFs that started 25 years ago will not be able to deliver the material at the qualities, quantities, and cost that are necessary for the circular economy to happen. At the same time, you don't find people anymore to do this manual sorting job of waste. It's getting more and more difficult to find those people and that show up every day to do this rather difficult job. So we see a huge trend here, the old MRFs will be turned into very modern and new plants. Let's take one closer look into regulation, because it is so important.
The emergence of extended producer responsibility is always a key driver for the adoption of sorting in the recycling space. What you see here on the left side is where EPR is currently already in place or about to be introduced in the world. Also there, the perception is that this is mainly a European thing. Yes, and it started in Europe. In Europe, we have EPR systems everywhere, but this is now also becoming a global process. Look, Canada, last year, introduced a extended producer responsibility scheme. Even in the U.S., I would have never thought about that, the first states are introducing extended producer responsibility schemes. And extended producer responsibility schemes, in the end, means nothing less than you have to collect the materials, and then you have to sort it.
That's new business opportunities for us, and it's becoming a global trend, and will drive our business. It's not only for packaging. That's the most popular EPR scheme. What you see here on the right side, there are currently a lot of plans in place, and we will see this happening, that extended producer responsibility scheme will be also used for other types of material streams, for end-of-life vehicles, for metals, for wood, for textiles. All that will also drive our business going forward. Regulation, a key. If we now take a closer look, because these macro drivers are maybe a little bit, you know, high level and a little bit too abstract. If we take a closer look, how these macro drivers will really translate into concrete growth opportunities for TOMRA Recycling.
First of all, it's more waste volume. In order to achieve the targets, for example, from the PPWR in Europe, which has clear higher recycling targets and also mandatory minimum recycled content targets, we need to sort more material. You will hear later that more than 80% of all plastics in Europe is currently either incinerated or landfilled. We need to get access to this material if we have to achieve those required targets. So there will definitely be more waste volume in our existing markets, so it doesn't need a new product development or a new market development. In our existing markets, more volume will be there in the future to be processed by our solution. The next one is new waste streams.
We have always developed new solutions for new waste streams, and I mentioned the decarbonization driver will require more material to be recycled, to be processed in a loop. Examples, there are different types of metals, scrap, aluminum, but also wood, for example, to produce chipboards. That's a new segment that we have just started and about to develop. There we develop new solutions for it because it's not always easy to reach the requirements of quality and purity that you need to be able to replace virgin materials. That's what we have been doing, and that's what Tove mentioned. You know, we are shaping and creating new markets. So we will move into new waste streams.
The third one, also an important one, the market will need higher quality materials. In the old days, when we, you know, did more like down cycling, it was sufficient to have an okay type of quality. But nowadays, if you want to become circular, you need to be able to sort into very high qualities. And I would like to use the example of aluminum here, that you can also find here some examples of that. Aluminum is a good example for that. Aluminum is already now recycled to 90% because it is a high-value material. And so you could ask yourself: So what? 90% of all the aluminum in the world is already recycled.
The problem is, all of it is down cycled to the lowest quality, but the requirements of the market are more and more high quality aluminum. High quality means specific alloys. So what you need to be able to sort aluminum into different alloys. And alloys means it's basic aluminum with some other metals as attached to it for certain properties of the material. This is a very difficult task, to sort aluminum into alloys. And it's, by the way, a new product we launched end of last year and really rolled out this year, a huge success, our AUTOSORT PULSE, the coolest technology we have ever developed. If you have a chance to see this product live, I encourage you.
It looks a little bit like Star Wars, with all the lasers shooting around. I really love it. And that's an example. We now are sorting aluminum into different alloys, something we have never done before. So this creates new market opportunities for us. And by the way, because we're able to do that, we are also addressing new material, aluminum that we have never sorted before because we couldn't do anything with it. So this is a good example of where we have new waste streams, new material being sorted, and also sorting it more granular into higher qualities. And last but not least, Tove mentioned also the modernization of facilities. It's a huge driver.
I can only encourage you, if you have the chance, to visit some of the most modern plants we have here in Europe. I could mention there is one in Sweden, Site Zero, Motala. There is one in Germany, close to Munich. There's a brand-new one in Austria. Visit those plants. It's amazing to see. It has nothing to do with the image of an old, dirty MRF, like you still find a lot around in the world. This is a fully automated, very clean, 24/7 production plant, so very high level. And these plants typically use 40 - 50 of our sorters. You can always see them in orange. They stand out because we have this orange color for our sorters. So really, a big trend. The old MRFs cannot do this.
The requirements, quantity, quality, and costs, can only be done with completely new, fully automated, modern plants. The TOMRA strategy in one sentence, TOMRA Recycling strategy: We will strengthen our leading position in core markets, develop innovative solutions to enter new waste streams, and transform our service offerings. Let's look at some financial KPIs that we are planning. On the left side, you see the revenue targets we are aiming and will deliver for the years to come, until 2030. We are seeing another double-digit growth CAGR for the period to come. If you look into the last years, we had a very strong growth, 90% CAGR, actually higher than what we presented at the last Capital Markets Day two years ago.
This year is a little bit more of consolidation. The market conditions are not really good, so it will be a bit more flattish, but which in this market condition is still very good. But as I described to you, the growth trends that we and the growth factors that we see, we believe in a double-digit growth for our division for the next years to come. Looking at the profitability, Recycling division has a quite good profitability, and our plan is to keep and maintain this profitability level. We are quite certain that we are able to do that. There will always be some factors like inflation, like price pressure in certain segments, that will challenge your profitability.
At the same time, we have various initiatives for operational efficiency, cost reduction, innovation, to drive new products, new solutions out there. That will balance that out, so we feel quite confident in maintaining our good profitability going forward. Last but not least, our sustainability targets. The Scope 1 and 2 targets are pretty much within our control. So there, it's about reducing our energy consumption. It's about moving all our cars to electric cars, renewable energy in all our office and products. So that is quite under control. The second part, the Scope 3, is more tricky. Of course, it's about the usage of our machines.
93% of our Scope 3 emissions are related to the use of our machines, and there it's basically most energy usage of our sorters is the air consumption that we have. We have several projects ongoing to really optimize the air impulse using sophisticated AI models, and depending on the size, shape, and weight of the object to optimize the air impulse, and target to reduce that by 20%, which then also will be very beneficial to our customers because it will reduce significantly their operational costs. We are the technology leader in the recycling markets, and we said we want to strengthen our leading position, and the absolute necessary condition for that is to be the technology leader. We are committed to innovation and cutting-edge research in TOMRA Recycling.
By the way, all our existence, we have been doing that. 22% of our employees work in R&D. We have more than 50 patents. Currently, 100 patents in application. We have the most sophisticated sensor portfolio, all proprietary ones. We have a relatively new group, five years, that, as the first one in our industry, moved into AI solutions, deep learning, object recognition solutions, and we have launched various new innovations this year in this space. We are fully committed that we will continue to stay the technology leader in this space. Last but not least, we have the best service network in the world, and the service is about to change.
What used to be, you know, with these small firms, privately owned, what used to be a more like fix it when it's broken type of service, will develop into services for, I mentioned those fully automated 24/7 production plants. They have different service needs, and that offers growth opportunities for our service that are actually higher than our sales of sorters. We expect growth in our service business in the high teens, and consequently, we will increase the share of recurring revenue going forward, with that. So last but not least, my key takeaways for today, there is a continued demand for high-quality recyclable material, and that will allow us to grow double digit also in the years to come.
It will never be linear, so like this year, will be a little bit up and down, but in general, a CAGR of double digit, we see going forward. As TOMRA Recycling, we are well-positioned as a clear technology and market leader, and we are very confident to maintain and keep our strong profitability going forward. On the sustainability side, accumulated in this period until 2030, we will enable an additional 180 million tons of material for becoming circular going forward, which will have a huge effect also to the world. Thank you, and I'm happy to hand over to my dear colleague, Marius. Thank you.
Okay, thank you. Hello, all, and good morning. My name is Marius Fraurud, and I took over TOMRA Collection about one year ago, after seven interesting years in the company in four different roles, where I, among other things, were heading up the solution and the product global part in TOMRA Collection. Really happy to be here with you guys today to talk about our continued ambition to drive our profitable growth, and why I believe that we managed to do that through our unique position in the market, and also a strong market momentum. Our plan is to maintain our leadership in existing markets, capture new markets, and prepare for growth beyond 2030. And our long-term ambition stance.
With the current tailwind we see, the aim to collect five hundred billion drink containers for closed-loop recycling and reuse starts to become a visible star on our Collection sky. And we are in a strong position. We are by far the market leader in our industry. We have 85,000 installations around the world, spread from Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Asia Pacific, and we currently collect more than forty-six billion drink containers every year. I want to talk a little bit about the value chain that we operate in. We are in an industry where there are no standardization. There is no drive between the markets to harmonize their setups. So each region, market, country, look for a solution that's suited for their local needs and their local ambitions.
Over fifty years, TOMRA has worked in this environment and created a knowledge base, a product base, and a solution base to support all this flexibility needed to support the local market needs. We can support RVMs, backdrop solutions, container solutions, redemption centers for consumer return. We have industrial solutions for counting centers. In our material recovery, we can provide logistic solutions, processing solutions. We can do clearing house solutions for the DRS systems as such. We can do material broking. In addition to all of these things we can provide, we can also act as a technology provider or as a full network operator, and this flexibility is seen as very, very crucial for us in the markets we operate. We have four main business models in TOMRA Collection: sales, service, throughput, and material recovery.
All with a certain stickiness towards our customers, giving us a good level of recurring revenues. As both Tove and Volker mentioned, regulation is important for our industry, and for collection, absolutely. It has been, and it will be going forward, that regulation is important. If you look at it now, the Packaging Waste Regulation, EU is in front. With that regulation, when it gets hopefully approved end of this year, there will be a mandated separate collection for drink containers on 90% by 2029. In addition, there will be a requirement for all the member states to implement a deposit return system, unless they can meet the 90% in another way.
As Tove mentioned, the only real way that has been proven is to introduce a deposit return system. In addition to this, we see that there is a drive for cost and margin pressure in the value chain. The players in the value chain are looking for ways to reduce their costs, to automate and modernize their setups to reduce their cost. Several of the players, like the large retailers in Europe, have started on their decarbonization journey. Both these things are adding requirements and requests from the value chain we work in, to create solutions which are more space efficient, maybe more efficient on transportation and logistics. That also improves the decarbonization journey of our customers.
If you look at our ambitions and targets, we have had a good growth in TOMRA Collection over the last years, 15% CAGR over the last five years, and we have had a EBITDA margin in the mid to high teens. We have had a dip around 2022, 2023, driven by inflation, supply chain challenges, and these type of things, which we are recovering from. Our ambition going forward is to keep our double-digit growth on the revenue side, and increase the EBITDA level to the high teens. On the sustainability side, we have, as TOMRA, committed Net Zero by 2050, and we have set Science Based Targets.
So we have similar targets as Volker talked about in the recycling division, reducing our Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 55% within 2033, and the Scope 3 emissions by 62% within 2033. So now I will go into the three different areas: growth, profitability, and sustainability. We are collecting drink containers in TOMRA Collection. So based on that, it's interesting to see what's actually put to market globally. And there is a stunning 2 trillion objects, or even more than 2 trillion objects, put to market every year. That is 5.5-6 billion every day. Of these, we will find around 11% in what we call existing conventional DRS system. That means the rest deposit return systems that we have today in the market.
Another 11% we will find in what we have defined as coming conventional DRS markets. These are markets where we believe that there will be a deposit return system within 2030. And lastly is the rest of the world markets, where we don't see necessarily today legislation or processes to introduce a deposit return system. It might, of course, come, and we believe it will come over time. And also there will be some exploration of alternative collection models in some of these markets. The main growth for TOMRA Collection up until 2030 will come from the conventional DRS systems, both existing and new.
Not so much initially for the rest of the world markets, but there we believe that a significant part of future growth will come from the rest of the world markets, so after 2030.... As our niche market or our niche industry moves into a more global industry, the competition is increasing, and the competitive landscape is getting more complex. To mitigate that and to continue being the leader in the industry, we will focus on innovation and flexibility to meet the local needs. In addition to that, we will address these three market types in different ways: existing markets, coming markets for DRS, and the rest of the world markets. I'll go through that a little bit with you guys now.
In existing markets, these are the markets that we know today: that's Germany, Northern Europe, Australia, the DRS states in the U.S. That's our core business platform. That's 80% of our revenues today. A significant part of the growth we've had over the last five years has come from these markets, and we expect that 40%-50% of the growth up until 2030 will come from these markets. What we'll do here is typically to work on technologies and technology innovations that can drive replacements, drive replacements in stores, that can increase investments per store, and so on. Added value services on digital side, for instance. We will, in addition, work on ensuring that we have the solutions and business model required for all customer types in these markets.
Lastly, but not least, we will also drive volume through our throughput infrastructure and our material recovery facilities. For the coming markets, here we are preparing for several startup in several markets as we speak: Austria, Poland, Tasmania, Quebec. There's a lot of things going on already, and a significant part of our growth up until today and going into 2030 will come from these markets. We have estimated somewhere around 40%-50% of our growth up until 2030 to come from these markets. The main driver, the main group of markets, will come from EU, driven by the Packaging Waste Regulation, and we have assumed that a third of the potential will happen within 2030, and that we will capture 50% of that market.
The way we will address these markets is to leverage our current strengths. We have, by far, the broadest portfolio. We have an innovation capability and financial muscles to adapt to the local needs. We have proven our rollout capabilities and have the largest production volume, capacity in the industry. And we've also proven that we can build strong local teams in the new markets, supported with our existing organization, and bringing in the knowledge for fifty years of being in this industry to succeed in these new markets. Lastly, we have the rest of the world markets, and as I said, the majority. Here, the uncertainty is much, much larger than the other ones. You know, a lot of things going on, but a large uncertainty.
But we have estimated that five to 10% of our growth until 2030 will come from these markets. It will be partly conventional deposit return systems, as we know them today, and partly alternative collections, which will emerge in this area. For this alternative collection, we see that there is a large opportunity for TOMRA because they need a holistic view. There is a holistic approach to their circularity in these countries. By leveraging the competence we have in TOMRA Collection, recycling, together with what we have in TOMRA Collection, we believe that we could be a good player together with these markets to figure out what are the good solutions and business model relevant for their local needs.
Here we have some activities now to find and look at piloting some things around in the Middle East and in Asia. Very interesting things. To our profitability. We have, as I said, an ambition to steadily increase our EBITDA margin to the high teens within the period up until 2030, and we have three main levers for doing that. These things we have already started, so this is a journey we are on. We are sort of bringing us back from the dip we had in 2022, 2023 into these targets, and we will do that steadily up until 2030. Increase our efficiency in existing markets. One example can be that we are working on digital solutions that can increase the remote fix rate.
By being able to fix more challenges remote from a central location or from a computer, you will not have to send a service technician to the store. You will save cost in the operations, and you will also save CO2 footprint. Further, we will launch new initiatives, and this week, actually, we launched a new R2. So when we provide value to our customers, added value to our customers that they can leverage in their operations, we can also justify higher margins. And thirdly, we will grow volume through our existing throughput networks.
On the flip side, there will be, you know, we have a positive momentum in new markets, and that means that we will have to invest in going in there, and also, we will have limited ability to have service revenue in the initial years when we have a warranty. So then we will have a sort of small reduction on the margin there, but in total, our ambition is to have an EBITDA margin in the high teens. Sustainability, really, really important, and Volker talked about it, Tove talked about it, TOMRA is all about it. We are also working with that within the TOMRA Collection division, and one way for us to reduce our footprint is to make our products more recyclable when they are retired, and to use more recycled material into our products.
One example that you see on the screen here is a project that we call Retility. We've worked on black industrial plastics, a fraction which is challenging today to recycle. It's not so easy to sort of pick out the black one and recycle that. So we've worked with the partners in the industry, shaping a loop where we can take out the black plastics from our machines, feed it into a loop, and then use that material as same as virgin into our products for new products. And here, we also said that this is an open system, so any player from any market and any industry can contribute with their black plastics, industry plastics, in here to create this loop. So that's one measure and one example of what we do.
We also have ambitious targets on our handprint. Within 2030, our ambition is to collect 130 billion drink containers per year for closed-loop recycling and reuse. That's almost tripling the impact we have today, and that's really, really bringing us a good step towards our 500 billion North Star. The key takeaways for me today is we in TOMRA Collection really, really believe in a continued, strong, profitable growth. We are very, very well positioned in the market, and the market drivers are really strong. Our plan is to maintain leadership in existing markets, capture new markets, and prepare for our growth beyond 2030. With that, I will hand over to my predecessor in Collection, and now the new Head of Food, so Harald.
Thank you, Marius. Good morning, everyone. So my name is Harald Henriksen. I've worked 20 years in TOMRA. I've had technology leadership positions. I've worked a lot in China, and I've also been heading up TOMRA Collection in North America for five years, before I had seven years heading up TOMRA Collection. And then last year, I joined Food, so I got a great opportunity from Tove to step into the Food business. And it's been a pleasure for now fourteen months. It's been, of course, a huge restructuring, but amazing how the employees have been behind it and really supported the change, and also the customers.
Both our partners and customers are extremely positive to what we're doing, and that's a good feeling to have when you go through a big turnaround like that. So these are the messages for today. We are the global leader. I'll talk about that. I'll, of course, come with the status of the restructuring program we're running, and then we are aiming for profitable growth after we have achieved the profitability targets as part of the restructuring. So that's the key for today, and as I said, we're the global leader. We're in a unique position because we do bulk sorting, we do lane sorting, which you will see today when you go to our customer sorting lemons, so that's lane sorting. We also do peeling.
We're the only company really doing all these three things in a good way. We have. We're also focusing. I'll come back to that, on a few core food categories, and that will bring us to an addressable market of EUR 800 million. We're the market leader. We have 15,000, close to 15,000 machines out in around 80 markets. You see on the map here. When I joined last summer, one of the first things I wanted to do was really to increase the proximity to the customers. When we merged the four companies, the four acquired companies, what we wanted to do was to change the organization, the operating model, into a regional structure. What you see here is how we're working today.
So we have Americas, headquartered in Sacramento. We have the APAC region, headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, and we have EMEA, headquartered in Leuven, in Belgium. And that's the focus of that is, as I said, to be as much as possible within the right time zone and close to the customers. And in addition to this, we have a global solution team, which is then providing technology, solutions, and products to the regions. And this is exactly what our customers want. They want to have the local proximity, the local competence about how food is grown in that area, and fast response rates from us, and they want the global reach and the global experience related to technology development. So that's the setup we have now, and I think this will definitely support us for the future.
My target is really to make us the undisputed leader, the most admired food sorting company globally, which we, of course, will achieve. Technology, where we are in the value chain? We're in the middle of the value chain. Our customers are harvesters, packers, and also food processors. It's fairly straightforward. These are our customers. As I said, technology is in the core of what we do. The sensors, the output from the sensors is really what brings value to the customers. One part is food safety, so being able to take away foreign objects from the food stream, like metal, like glass, like insects, is one big part of it. Another one is food quality, to be able to sort out based on visual and non-visual defects.
This, of course, is about really having our customer to deliver high-quality products and really supporting their brand, which is very important for them. We also know that the customers use the data from the machine and that information to optimize storage, and also to increase their yield and reduce food waste and food loss. It's also possible to use that information to improve farming and also for traceability. The information is there, so it's all about utilizing in the best possible way. I talked about some core markets. I will not go through each of these, but these are the nine core markets we are focusing on.
So we have done an evaluation of the whole food sector, and ended up with that these are the areas where we see most profitability, most possibility for growth going forward, and where we also have the right to win, and where technology really can contribute into the food processing, where it can really differentiate. So when I joined, we did a deep dive and a diagnostic of the food market, and if I should conclude on that in just one sentence, it is that the food sorting market is a very attractive market to be in. And the reason for that is, among other things, the drivers in the market. So one thing is the demographics, where, of course, population growth is driving growth also in the food production.
And then the increasing middle class is really impacting the need for more quality food and better sorting, higher quality output. We see nuts is increasing, nut production, due to the healthy fat in nuts. We see blueberries also related to focus on health. Just on blueberries, new planting areas in Peru, in Morocco, in Mexico, to get more a year-round production. Just in 2022, the production of blueberries was 1.8 million tons, and the estimated production in 2026 is 2.8 million tons. So it's definitely a food category we want to be part of. And then, as the other divisions talked about, modernization and automation is also a big driver in the food area.
Definitely, automation, you will see it today as well, with the technology that we have there. Related to it, it's difficult to get hold of people, and the cost of labor is also increasing, and there's also more and more detailed requirements to food and food sorting, which is not possible for humans to handle. It's like, pest damage or mycotoxins on nuts, which you need technology to be able to sort out. Yield is also a big, big requirement going forward. You need technology to be able to do that, and automation to be able to do it, and of course, another driver is also with the technology development, that is also driving replacement of older equipment out in the market, then to the financials and the restructuring program that we're running, so it's quite a significant change.
We are saving EUR 30 million. That's our target for the end of the year, and we will deliver on that. That's taking out a lot of the workforce. It's also changing the and the organizational structure into what I showed, also the new regional structure. As a result of this, you know, the main focus is profitability, and we will deliver on the 10%-11% run rate target at the end of the year. Going towards 2030, our target is to reach a mid-tens, mid-teens EBITDA percentage. Also, on the growth side, we have had limited growth over the years. We see within the core segments that we are focused on market growth going forward of around 5%, and we believe that we can deliver more than that.
Maybe a bit slower, first in the period, but then definitely beat the market growth towards 2030. And then as the other divisions, a lot of focus on sustainability, quite similar to what recycling is doing, especially on the bulk sorting side. And then we're looking on other technology solutions, also on peeling and on lane sorting. And of course, also the changes we're doing. There, there's always what we see a positive link between delivering on this and also business. And one thing for us, we're as part of the restructuring, we're closing down both production sites in New Zealand, moving production to Slovakia, which has a positive financial effect and also a positive sustainability effect. So on the strategy, first, we focus on profitability and customer satisfaction. That's phase one.
phase two is technology, leadership, and service innovation, and I'll go into those two areas. So phase one, profitability. A big part of that is also focus in the organization and being able to prioritize. And prioritize means saying no to things, not yes to everything. We're taking out a lot of products. Before this restructuring, we had more than 40 products. Now we have 11 product families that we focus on going forward. We're closing a lot of sites. We're closing 11 different sites. The two production sites in New Zealand are two of those 11. And so we really, this is part of really simplifying, our operation and increasing the efficiency in what we're doing, and of course, reducing complexity. Another very important part related to customer satisfaction is the service performance. Being able...
You know, this is sort of basic service performance, being able to deliver the right spare part to the right customer at the right time, being there for the customer as fast as possible. So all these different kind of things. So it's fairly basic, but we already see impacts. We already see that we actually have managed to grow the after market with 6% compared to the same period last year, which is a good starting point. And then establishing local partnerships. We have a lot of very good partners, but we need to establish more partnerships because we're not doing everything ourselves. A big processing plant has a lot of technology. We are not delivering everything of that. We are delivering the core technology, and then we use partners for the rest, also during installation and setting everything up.
And then the last point here is related to preparing for technology leadership. So what we have worked on now is really to develop a platform approach and a modularized approach for our products, and that will make it possible for us to come out with new products at a higher speed than what we have done earlier. So it's very important to be able to reuse different modules in different products. One example of that is actually, it's not only hardware, it's also software. Some of you may have heard of LUCAi, our AI solution, which we now are selling to cherry customers, blueberry customers, but we're also rolling that out to other customers in other food segments. Phase two, more medium to longer term, but it's about generating growth, profitable growth related to technology leadership and also service innovation. So this is more...
You need to have the machines connected online. We need to have improve the service through proactive, predictive maintenance programs and so forth. And really, as you understand from everything I'm saying, you know, it's not only about selling products, it's really about growing the after market as well, where we have a huge potential. Also, utilizing the data from the sensors, I talked about AI, making proprietary models for customers to give them a competitive advantage. Using digital information to be able to use information from the sorters to optimize the whole processing line, to give information to fryers and cutters and so forth. That's an opportunity which is there, which we will start to look into. And then also expanding the sorting opportunities.
As I said initially, since we have both lane sorting technology and bulk sorting technology, when you go to the customer today and you see lane sorting, where you have one lemon per carrier in the lanes, it's also possible to actually put bulk sorting in front of that to be able to remove contaminated products before they are processed further. So it opens up opportunities by having this unique setup as we do, and then sensor technology developments also gives us opportunity to focus more on texture, taste, and also ripeness of products going forward, so a lot of opportunities, which is not the focus right now. The focus right now is profitability.
And as I said, we will deliver on our restructuring targets, and that will, of course, help us now for the first year and also into the future. But we see opportunities to even increase the profitability further by operational leverage, by using the volume growth we also see. Also the revenue mix, the mix between products, but also the mix between after market sales and sales of projects and products, and then the gross margin improvement. So new products will open up opportunities of smarter pricing, value-based pricing, which we will utilize. So the key takeaways is that we are currently the global leader, but we will work to further strengthen that position. We will complete the restructuring and deliver on all our targets, where the biggest target is the profitability. And then we will generate profitable growth through technology, leadership, and service innovation.
Also, as part of all this, we contribute to the 30%, reducing the 30% food loss and waste, while enforcing food safety and maximizing the yield for our customers. I'd just like to repeat what I said about the market. The food sorting market is really an attractive market to be in, and I'm glad I'm part of it. Thank you.
Thank you for that, Harald. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now take a short coffee break. Please, fill up your coffee cups outside. Geir Sæther, Head of Reuse, will also be downstairs to show you the reuse machine. You can follow him down, but please come back around 9:25 A.M., so we can start at 9:30 A.M. sharp again. Thank you.
Good morning! I hope you all had a very nice break. I am Lars Enge, and I'm EVP Group Strategy here in TOMRA, and it's my pleasure to present our plans and ambitions for developing adjacent business in TOMRA. As presented before my break by Harald, Marius, and Volker, TOMRA has strong value creation and growth opportunities in our three core divisions. In addition to this, we are looking to develop adjacent business, and we do that through leveraging our technology and our decades of know-how to facilitate and accelerate the transition to circular economies. And when we look at adjacent business, we take two approaches. So one is TOMRA Horizon, where we do longer-term business building, and the other is Adjacent M&A, where we look at inorganic growth in selected value-adding verticals.
For both these areas, we apply strict capital return requirements, ensuring that we optimize our portfolio, the capital returns, and our risks. Now, in this section, I'll mainly talk about TOMRA Horizon, as we have three promising ongoing activities there, but I will also touch upon how we think about Adjacent M&A. TOMRA Horizon. I would like to start with the why, so the rationale for establishing Horizon. Firstly, innovation is a core value in TOMRA. It's through innovation, we continue to lead the resource revolution and continue to shape new markets. Horizon gives us that platform to test how our technology and market position can be leveraged for additional value creative growth. Secondly, Horizon gives us the opportunity to broaden our portfolio, creating more resilience and diversification of our revenue streams. Third, Horizon opens up new avenues for profitable growth.
As Tove mentioned at the start, the world is today less than 7% circular. That means that we have a lot of work to do on 93% of the resources we consume every year on this planet. This opens up a lot of opportunities for a company like TOMRA, and Horizon is one vehicle that allows us to pursue this. From the why to the what: so what are we looking for in TOMRA Horizon? First, we look at business concepts that solve some of the bigger research challenges the world is facing. We do this because we, as a company, want to have a material impact, but also because this creates big business opportunities. Second, we look at business concepts that are ripe for scaling over the next couple of years.
While business building do take time, we require a clear line of sight into a proven technology and a clear commercial market demand. Third, we look at concepts where we have a competitive advantage to succeed, and this is typically connected to our technology and our market position. And last but not least, we look at concept, where we're confident that we can create strong capital returns. And to make sure that we allocate capital optimally, we have set some minimum thresholds to guide our capital allocation. We look at the internal rate of return for the investment overall, but we also look at the steady-state ROCE and EBITDA margin, making sure that is also in line with our targets. So with those minimum targets, we're confident that the Horizon portfolio will support the TOMRA group targets over time. Then to how? So how do we build businesses in TOMRA?
So in TOMRA, we always explore new ideas and concepts, and that's the first step, exploration. Some of these ideas are best pursued in one of the divisions. Other times, M&A is the best route, but sometimes having a business-building venture is the best way to achieve success. Then we design the business blueprint, and here we create the business case and the business plan, and we test that to the criteria that I just went through. If we're comfortable with that, we will launch the venture, and the first step is to prove the concept. And here we look at how the technology, the market, the value chain, the regulation, all can come together to create a positive business case. And when we're comfortable with that, we will scale. And when we scale, we use the capital allocation thresholds for deploying capital.
We already have three promising activities ongoing. That's TOMRA Textiles, it's TOMRA Reuse, and TOMRA Feedstock, and they all have different maturity. TOMRA Textiles, our youngest venture, is in the middle of the proof of concept. TOMRA Reuse is quite advanced in the proof of concept, with the city pilot already running. TOMRA Feedstock is already in the scaling phase, as we've proven the concept in our demo plant in Lahnstein. Now I'll go a bit more into the details of each of these ventures, explaining the business model, what you need to believe for this to be a success, and the current status. I'll start with TOMRA Feedstock. TOMRA Feedstock utilizes our waste sorting technology to create new value chains to recover plastic waste, which is typically incinerated or landfilled today. The problem Feedstock is addressing is massive.
In Europe alone, more than 70% of all the plastics we consume is lost through incineration or landfilled. In volume, that means that more than 20 million tons of material is lost. And this is not a sustainable way to manage our resources, and it's also far below the targets set in the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation. So a change is clearly needed, and that is what TOMRA Feedstock is trying to solve. So if you look at the bottom left here, you'll see the value chain and our position in TOMRA Feedstock. So we occupy a new space where we take the waste that is lost to landfill and incineration today, dirty, mixed waste plastics, and we source that, helping incinerators to avoid high CO2 taxes, and we convert that to clean fractions through advanced sorting technology. Now, in theory, this is an easy concept.
In practice, it is very challenging, and many doubt that this can actually be done. The reason why TOMRA has chosen to take a leading position and shape this market is our deep technology knowledge and the work we've done in our demo plant in Lahnstein. What do you need to believe for this concept to become a success? Firstly, we need to believe that the regulatory push for increased plastic recycling continues. In Europe, this is very much driven by the packaging and Packaging Waste Regulations. Other legislation will be helpful, for example, increased CO2 taxes on incinerators. Secondly, we need to believe that the industry is committing to increased recycled content in their products. Also here, the PPWR sets a target and momentum in this direction, and we see many of the bigger packaging producers setting high ambitions.
And third, we need to believe that mechanical and chemical recycling technologies mature and scale. And in Europe, in chemical recycling, we see a lot of developments ongoing. So what is the status of TOMRA Feedstock? We have already committed and invested in two plants, and they will be up and running during next year. Our Norwegian plant during the first half and the German plant towards the end of the year. In total, we've committed EUR 90 million in those two investments, and when they're up and running, they will process more than 150,000 tons of waste. Roughly, that will generate about EUR 50 million revenue and good capital returns for TOMRA. Now, it's important to understand that these two plants are what we would call mid-scale plants. So they are good plants.
They will prove the technology and the commercial viability, but in an optimized large-scale plant, say, 200,000-300,000 tons, the capital returns will be very much stronger, far better, beyond 15% capital returns. But we're not only building, we're also working on the commercial offtake agreements, and it's very positive to see that we managed to sign offtake agreements on the most challenging plastic fractions that we produce in our plants. So many of the fractions can be traded on a liquid market, but some require long-term offtake agreements, and those we have signed and have proven our original business case. In parallel to this, we are looking into further investments, but we do that together with partners, and we do that in line with our capital allocation thresholds. To TOMRA Textiles.
TOMRA Textiles is on a mission to close the gap between waste and fiber-to-fiber recycling and the demand from brands. Our starting point is our unique sensor-based sorting technology that we use to create solutions and develop value chains for textile circularity at scale. Now, most of you are probably familiar with the issues with today's traditional textile value chain. Less than 1% of the fibers we consume are kept in a closed loop today. So changing this to a circular value chain has a massive positive environmental impact, and that is what TOMRA Textiles is trying to enable. So if you look at the bottom left here, in the dark gray bubbles, you see the traditional linear textile value chain. Now, this value chain has been optimized for cost over decades since the first industrial revolution.
It is a global value chain, and it's very fragmented, so changing this to a circular chain is challenging. With TOMRA, we believe this can be done, and that we hold one of the key unlocks for this to happen, which is advanced sorting technology. The focus of TOMRA Textiles is to develop the technology for sorting and pre-processing post-consumer waste textiles and the process to make that happen in the ecosystem. What we need to believe for this to become a success is, first, a regulatory push for increased circular textiles. That means recycling targets, recycled content targets, and action-oriented EPR schemes. Therefore, it's very positive to see what is happening in the EU now with the legislation they are developing. Already now, from next year, in January, there will be separate collection requirements on all EU member states for post-consumer textile waste.
Secondly, we will need to believe that recycling technologies scale and are matured for the key fiber fractions, so this will unlock commercial viability of some of the more challenging fractions for fibers. What we see now in the polyester space is very positive, and many players are moving in with high ambitions to increase the recycling capacity, especially chemical. And third, the brands hold a key role to unlock circularity of textiles. When they commit offtake at prices that makes a circular value chain viable, this can scale and have a big impact. So what is the status of TOMRA Textiles today? So, as I said, we are in the middle of proof of concept, meaning that we look at the, how we develop the technology and make that fit with the market and the ecosystem.
To do that, we are setting up a dedicated technology center for textiles in Germany, and in parallel then, working with innovative recyclers to understand which technologies are most promising, and what are their needs from our sorting step. In addition, we are doing feasibility studies with players in the textile ecosystem to make sure that we find the right and the profitable business cases, combining our technology in the value chain. To TOMRA Reuse. TOMRA Reuse leverages our reverse vending technology to create open managed systems and complete infrastructures for takeaway packaging for cities and events all around the world. The problem Reuse is trying to solve is seen all around us. It's estimated that more than 55 billion takeaway containers are consumed in Europe alone every year.
If you look in public bins in cities around in Europe, 50% of the content will be takeaway packaging. This is a massive waste management problem, but it also causes littering and greenhouse gas emissions. Effective reuse solutions have the potential to solve these challenges, and that is exactly what TOMRA Reuse has developed. We have developed a complete solution for a full reuse system for a city. It includes the packaging item, but also the collection point that you can see down in the reception, the logistics, the sanitization, and the digital platform that connects everything. The core technology we have developed in TOMRA is that digital platform, where millions of serialized objects need to travel in loops, and deposits and payments needs to be handled in a secure and safe way.
In addition, we have developed these tailored collection points, building on our reverse vending technology, but fitting for this type of packaging. The need for this solution is that we have a regulatory push, so we have to admit that a reuse solution on the face of it is more expensive than a linear, single-use culture, where you just throw away the object, and that is because many of the environmental costs are not internalized in the system, so a regulatory push is needed to accelerate the shift, and the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation has started to set ambitions in this area, and we see many cities and countries in Europe starting to define that kind of legislation, meaning taxes or bans on single-use containers.
Secondly, we need to believe that we can create a reuse solution that is sufficiently convenient for customers to adopt it at scale. So behaviors are difficult to change, and therefore, convenience is needed to reduce those barriers. Third, we need to believe we can create a solution that is also convenient and cost-efficient for the cafes and the restaurants, thereby also making them support the shift to a reuse value chain. The status of TOMRA Reuse is that we have our Aarhus pilot up and running, and we've already circulated 500,000 cups by now... In parallel to this, we are developing a new collection point that can also take in Food packaging, as the one in Aarhus only takes drink containers.
Based on all the interest from this pilot, which is the first of its kind in the world, we have a lot of interest from cities around the world, where we are discussing to deploy new reuse solutions. We're also looking at one more segment, which is what we call the event segment, and this is typically football stadiums, cinemas, festivals, which also has a strong interest in reuse solutions and are less regulatory dependent. We have developed a unique solution for that segment as well, and are planning to pilot it later this year. Now I have talked a bit about each of our ventures, and for all the ventures, we've also set ambitions, and this is to guide the direction and the magnitude of the impact that we can have.
For TOMRA Feedstock, our North Star for 2035 is to recover 2 million tons of mixed plastics from incineration or landfill, and making that available for closed-loop recycling. For TOMRA Textiles, it's to enable 1.5 million tons fiber-to-fiber recycling by scaling automated sorting and shaping circular textile standards. For TOMRA Reuse, it's to avoid 400 million single-use takeaway packaging annually through our reuse systems. Now, these ambitions are bold, and they set a direction for the teams working in the ventures. They need to think big and act fast, but it also gives a sense of magnitude as to the positive impact on the business case we can achieve if these are scaled successfully.
But as I said, when we scale, we always apply our capital allocation framework, and as these ventures develop, we continuously consider what is the right ownership structure for the venture and for the TOMRA Group. So that was a bit on TOMRA Horizon, and I said in the start that we're also exploring adjacent M&A as a means to develop adjacent businesses. And the purpose of this is to diversify and strengthen the TOMRA Group portfolio and create additional value. We also here have a capital allocation framework, and we are required that any investments we do should be accretive over time and support our TOMRA Group targets over time. So what are we looking for in adjacent M&A? So first, it's critical that it's purpose-driven businesses that support our vision and align with our position as a company.
We are looking for companies in spaces where technology is a key differentiator and in markets where there are strong growth prospects over time. We're also looking for companies where we believe that TOMRA can be a good owner, meaning that we add value to them, and they can add value back to the TOMRA Group. With all these requirements, it means that we will be selective when we look at M&A, but we already have some interesting areas that we are exploring. One example is technology that is adjacent to the current position we have in the value chains. Another example is in the more digital technologies, where we see quite mature use cases, on, of software technologies that connect with the hardware in our value chain.
So that was my section on adjacent business building, talking about TOMRA Horizon and adjacent M&A, and I will leave you with two key takeaways. First of all, in TOMRA, we see strong potential for value creative growth through developing business adjacent to TOMRA. And secondly, we apply strict capital return requirements to ensure we optimize capital allocation across our group. And with that, I hand over to my excellent colleague, Eva.
Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome from me as well. My name is Eva Sagemo, and I'm the CFO of TOMRA Group. You have just heard from my colleagues presented the strategy going forward, and my job is to summarize what this means for TOMRA Group. We have set our strategic ambition going forward, dividing it into six targets. We have a clear ambition to grow our revenues with 15% CAGR over the cycle, but also to improve our profitability, achieving an 18% EBITDA by 2030. We will deliver a return on capital employed with more than 18%, continue to deliver or distribute dividend with 40%-60% of our earnings per share, and maintaining a capital structure being investment grade. In addition, we have committed to Net Zero by 2050.
But before we take a leap into the future, we should have a look at where we are today, given the ambitions that we set back in 2022. TOMRA is a growth company, and our target is to position our portfolio for profitable growth. This illustration shows where our ambition is, so we are targeting high growth and strong profitability. Looking at what we have delivered since our last Capital Markets Day, and starting with Collection and Recycling. Both of those divisions have, they have delivered a strong profitability and a high growth, so they are in line with our ambition set back in 2022. Looking at Food, we know that they are behind plan, so they have not been able to deliver according to our ambitions set back in 2022.
But as Harald has talked about today, we have initiated a large turnaround plan in Food, and we have a clear ambition to improve the profitability and increase the growth going forward. In 2022, we also launched the Horizon thinking, our ventures in Horizon. And back then, Horizon represented only a small part of our growth journey for the future years. But when we look back at what we have achieved and also what Lars has presented today, we are very proud of what we have achieved in only a few years. So looking into the future, and starting with our growth target, we remain committed to our ambition of delivering 15% annual growth going forward, which means that we are targeting more than doubling TOMRA's business in 2030.
We believe that TOMRA's fundamentals remain robust, and the drivers for circularity, they are still in place. We know that the main growth drivers going forward is the core business of TOMRA, and as we have heard today, we have set targets for Collection and Recycling to grow with double digits, and food to grow with mid to high single digits, and on top of this, as Lars presented, we are also committed to invest further into adjacent opportunities, because we believe that that will generate future returns for TOMRA, and looking into the revenue target, we have a solid underlying business from core, and looking at the graph on the left-hand side, more than 85% of our revenue in 2030 will come from existing business.
Of course, new markets will be important in this period as well, and we have heard today, both in Collection and in Recycling, that there has been quite some positive development on the legislation side, especially in Europe, but also in Americas, in Asia lately, so that will be also adding up to the growth target, delivering a 15% CAGR by 2030. In addition, we have also heard today that we have planned to increase our service offering faster than the install base. Today, Collection is delivering a strong service offering and a throughput model, but we also learned today that both Recycling and Food will step up its work on the service offering going forward.
With that, we see an increase in the share of service of our revenue from today's base of 42% to close to 50% in 2030. That will result in a strong recurring revenue base in TOMRA, which also will provide for higher profitability overall in TOMRA Group's margins. Moving over to a profitability target, we remain firm on that profitability target that we committed to back in 2022, to deliver an EBITDA at 18% in 2030 by 2030. Last year, that was a very special year for TOMRA. We had significant one-off costs related to both cyber and the restructuring in Food. The year ended at 13% EBITDA, and our target by 2030 is 18%. We are going to lift the margin with 5 percentage points.
And how are we going to do that? We look at this in three phases or three buckets. So first, the improvement program in Food will deliver a couple of percentage points to the uplift in the group margin going forward. Next, we have also heard efficiency programs across the TOMRA base that will also support lifting the margin, in as well as the service offering, which will in addition lift the margin group. And then also, when it comes to the revenue growth, we will grow faster in Collection and Recycling, which will also contribute to the margin overall, as they are higher margin divisions for TOMRA Group. So together, these three buckets will take us to the target of 18% in 2030.
Of course, with the investments that we plan to do in adjacent areas, that might dilute the margin initially in the period. But we are confident that when we commit to investments into adjacent areas, they should be able to deliver the same profitability as the overall target for TOMRA. TOMRA has historically generated a strong cash flow from operations, and going forward, that will be important as well, as it will be supportive for the strategy that we have presented today. How are we going to deploy that capital? We have a disciplined capital framework and allocation prioritization, where we prioritize, firstly, capital deployed to dividends, secondly, capital to deploy acceleration in our core business divisions, and thirdly, that we will deploy capital for investments into adjacent areas. And starting with the dividend.
Our dividend policy is a cornerstone for TOMRA, but also our shareholders. Even if we plan to do investments in core and adjacent, our dividend policy remains unchanged. So we will distribute between 40% and 60% of our earnings per share going forward, and we have also committed to an ambition to even increase the absolute payout in the period. As you can see from this illustration, we have been able to deliver on this target over the last five years. We plan to invest in accelerated growth in core, but also to support selective investment in adjacent. What do we mean with that? So first, we need to split what is then maintenance spendings and what is future-oriented spendings. When we talk about maintenance spendings first, that is to maintain our running base, our running operations, and installed base in TOMRA.
And over the next cycle, we plan to spend between 4-5% of our revenues into that maintenance spendings. Going into the future-oriented spendings, with that, we mean both OpEx and CapEx that we do today, but will generate returns in the future. And we look a bit different on how we will deploy spendings into future activities within the core, compared to the adjacent areas. When it comes to the core business, and this is something that we already do today, the plan going forward is to deploy between 6%-8% of our revenues in future activities within our core business. And with that, we mean, for example, continue to invest in our R&D to maintain the technology leadership that we have in TOMRA, and that is important for us.
We also will continue to go into new markets, to develop new segments, and also to continue to drive advocacy for our business around the world. When it comes to future-oriented spending in adjacent, that will follow a strict framework. It will be more project-based, so case-by-case evaluation on the different business case, as Lars presented today. But we strongly believe that investing into those future adjacent opportunities can unlock shareholder value for TOMRA, as it will diversify our portfolio and strengthen TOMRA overall for the future, and today we have also introduced a new target. We have introduced a capital return target to be more explicit on what we mean with returns expected from the investments that we do in TOMRA. As the illustration shows, we have delivered a strong ROCE over the last years, and we ended last year at 17%.
That is a bit lower than the 18% that we have committed to in the next cycle. It is important to note that when we do investments, for example, in adjacent areas, or for example, when we are not delivering on the targets in Food, that ROCE will be impacted by that. But we are confident that with the strategic initiatives that we have decided now, we'll ensure a stable ROCE above 18% going forward in a steady state, including our adjacent activities. And before the summer, Scope Ratings reaffirmed TOMRA's rating to an overall A-. That means specifically a risk, a financial risk profile at A, and a business risk profile at BBB. And maintaining this investment grade status is important for us, and we also expect that rating to remain stable in the period up until 2030.
Historically, we have had low leverage in TOMRA, and last year, our net interest bearing debt over EBITDA ended at 1.7. Of course, we will most probably see fluctuations in this leverage in the period, depending on the investments that we do. But we are confident that we have sufficient headroom also going forward. Looking at the financing in TOMRA, that mainly consists of bonds. And going forward, we will use our green bond framework to for both new financing and refinancing. We have, in addition, a solid liquidity buffer in TOMRA alongside our cash position. And with our strong financial risk profile, and also with our commitment Net Zero and science-based target, we are confident that we will have access to good financing and capital pools also in the future. And then our target on sustainability.
Back in 2022, we launched a holistic sustainability target for TOMRA, and we are committed to deliver on those targets going forward. In the period up until 2030 , we are mainly focusing on sustainable product design, employee value proposition, and climate impact. Starting with the sustainable product design, it's all about using sustainable material in our new products, and we are also targeting that our new products are circular at their end of life going forward. Employee value proposition is important for TOMRA, and here we have a clear target to increase the female representation in management positions, but also to attract a diverse talent pool across TOMRA. When it comes to the climate impact, it's all about commitment to Net Zero target.
To be able to deliver on that commitment, we have worked on our science-based target setting this year. That has been quite some work that we have put into this project over the last months. The initiatives that we have identified to really be able to reduce emissions going forward will bring us a good way to close Net Zero gap, looking into 2033 and 2050. As you can see from this overview on the pink buckets, we still have some gap to close. We don't know today how we are going to close that gap. We have a commitment within our workforce to really find additional initiatives to be able to close that going forward.
We are committed Net Zero in 2050. I am proud to recap TOMRA's strategic ambitions for the next years. We are committed to the revenue growth of 15%, and to lift our profitability to 18% by 2030. We will deliver return on capital employed with more than 18%, continue to distribute dividend, and maintain our capital structure being investment grade. And as the leader in the resource revolution, we are committed Net Zero. we know that these targets are ambitious, but I am confident that with the team and with our knowledge and technology, that we are in a good position to reach those targets. Thanks.
Thank you, Eva, and thank you to all the presenters. And actually, I will invite the presenters who could join me here on stage. So this was the story about TOMRA. We hope that you found it as exciting as we think it is. And as Eva ended with on the targets, you know, we have presented today an ambitious strategy, and we have presented today ambitious targets, but we believe it's possible to achieve this. And why do we believe that? It is because we have over 52 years built businesses, created markets. We have a unique position in all the segments that we are operating in, and we have great people, people with an entrepreneurial spirit and a can-do attitude. So in TOMRA, you know, there is no waste, there is only resources, opportunities, and business to be captured. Thank you.
And with that, we will be moving over to Q&A. And we also have participants from other parts of the world, and we will actually start with a question from the webcast. If you want to ask a question, of course, just raise your hand, and my colleague, Mathilda, at the back of the room, will give you a microphone. And please introduce yourself, who you are, and try to stay to around one question to start with. But we will start with Daniel Haugland at ABG in Oslo. Daniel, let's see if the technology is with us. You're free to ask your question.
Hi, Tove, and, hi, Eva. Good to see you. So, I have two questions, mainly on the ambitions. So firstly, when I look at the group level target of 15%, to me, that seems to imply a quite decent growth from adjacent, growth opportunities, given that you say 10% CAGR or a double-digit CAGR on Collection and Recycling, and 6%-7% in Food. So could you maybe clarify how to bridge the 15% with, the segment-level numbers? And then, my second question is on the investment side. You say 6%-8% of revenues in future-oriented spend. So is this based on group revenues?
Because based on 2023, that would suggest like EUR 90 million per year in OpEx and CapEx, and I think you have, like, EUR 20 million in ramp-up costs for new markets today. So that suggests a very significant increase versus current levels. So maybe you could tell us what, what will, what will be driving that difference. So that was my two questions. Thank you. Thank you for taking my questions.
Yeah, I can start on the growth part, and then Eva can take the future-oriented spend. So we have today presented an ambition of doubling within 2030. The core growth will still come from the core divisions. As we have illustrated, we are not indicating exact growth figures for the different divisions, but we say that Recycling and Collection will grow in double digits, and then we've indicated, you know, 6%-7% on Food. On top of that, we expect that Horizon will contribute somewhat, and also that we will look at additional M&A both in the verticals adjacent to our businesses, and we will also look at M&A opportunities within Food when we have really completed the restructuring and the profitability. Exactly, you know, how will the split be between the different elements?
We have indicated on the graph, but it's really going to see how the different markets and segments are developing, and what are the opportunities that we find both within adjacent and horizon, or adjacent and M&A. And of course, we will not act on those unless we see that they will be really value-generating for our shareholders and meeting our capital return requirements.
Yeah, and then on the future-oriented spendings that you referred to and what we have presented today, for us, it's important that we position us to take, you know, the opportunities that comes along. This is something that we have done over quite some years already. We have also had quite some investments into future-oriented spendings over the last years. We will continue to do that going forward, where we will continue to invest in R&D, but also step up the in the R&D work that we currently do in all the three divisions. In addition, we are ready to go into new market, and as Marius presented today, it's a lot of activities ongoing in future deposit markets that have committed already to go with the DRS in the future.
So, with that estimation level between 6% to 8%, most will be into OpEx. We also have CapEx into that range. But even if we plan to invest this into future spendings, we will also be able to deliver on the EBITDA profitability.
And also, just to clarify one thing, because I might get confusion, that we have our ramp-up cost, which we have said is around EUR 200 million or EUR 20 million, but this is future-oriented spend, so this includes, you know, R&D, public affairs, et cetera. And the level going forward is in line with what we have seen the last one to two years.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you, Daniel. We'll take the next question from the floor. Elliott, please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Elliott from Danske Bank. Congrats on today. Just piggybacking on the previous question on targets, for the 15% CAGR, am I right in then assuming the base case includes some inorganic activity, or could you get there just organically? Second, on the recycling side, good color on the drivers to get to the 8%-10% market growth, but I think previously we talked about maybe 10%-12%. So I'm just wondering maybe if you've seen anything in the last few years that has made you kind of lower your expectations. And then lastly, on Food, it looks like the restructuring is kind of going well, and you said that, you know, very attractive market, but has things kind of...
Can you give us some more color in terms of the near term, what you're seeing and what you're hearing from kind of customer investment appetite?
Yeah, I'll start on the growth part, and then Volker and Harald will take the two other questions. So could we get there without any M&A? You know, we have not, in our base case, assumed all of Europe going live with deposit in this period. If they do, there is a significant upside there. We haven't, you know, and it's all based, you know, we have assumed underlying growth of the food market of 5%, and you asked a question to Volker that we have assumed, you know, an 8%-10% on recycling market. If they grow more, you know. So there are, you know, when you make this, and you try to look into the five years going ahead, there are pluses and minuses here.
But in our kind of base case assumption, it will be, you know, a combination of the organic growth in core, developing the recent opportunities, and some M&A. Perhaps Volker on the recycling?
Yeah, on the growth expectations for the recycling side, you're right. Two years ago, we were a bit more optimistic about the market growth, but, you know, when you do these predictions, you always take into account what is currently happening, and we cannot ignore that currently the market is a bit more challenging. At the same time, I would like to highlight that, you know, we were growing faster in the last years than what we presented two years ago. So we had a close to 20% CAGR over the last three years, which was significantly higher than what we thought at that time.
So, yeah, we have reduced slightly our market growth assumptions going forward, but that is mainly in the light of the challenging conditions right now and of the higher growth in the past years.
Yeah, and on the Food side, I think, you know, from what I've said and what we see, it is definitely an attractive market to be in long term, but it's a bit slower now. It has been, and it's due to the macroeconomic conditions, inflation, interest rates, and so forth. We sign more contracts than we've done before, but it's smaller contracts, and of course, we expect that to change going forward, but we don't see that right now.
Good. We have a next question. Yes?
Hi, Fabian from Carnegie. You say, I mean, it includes R&D, CapEx, OpEx investments in the new, let's say, CapEx guidance in total. And it's similar to what we've seen the last couple of years, but the last couple of years have been lower margin. So it's gonna be continued high CapEx, it's gonna be lower. You've lowered your return on capital employed target by 5 percentage points for new projects, and you maintain your EBITDA margin target. That doesn't really add up to me. How can return on new projects be lower, CapEx be higher, and margins be stable?
So, I can start clarifying a bit, because what we have presented, and I assume, what you are then thinking about, is the targets presented by Lars, which are actually not targets, but is minimum requirements for us to initiate an investment. So if you're going to initiate the investment in the Horizon, it needs to minimum have these kind of requirements: IRR of 15%, and return on capital employed of 15% in a running state, and EBITDA of 18%. The average of the portfolio within Horizon should be in line with our group targets. So that's just to clarify that you can't take that as a target, it is a minimum requirement. And first, you can elaborate a bit on how all of this fits together.
Yeah. And I... When you look at... You mentioned that profitability has been lower in the past, and now we're going to invest even more. I think we need to look at the reasoning behind why we were lower at the profitability over the last years. That is not because, that is really because of kind of like external pressure related to both inflation, supply chain, and all of these elements that also other companies have experienced. In addition, we have not delivered, you know, on Food, in line with what we had as ambitions back in 2022.
So if you are just back to being at the profitability that we are targeting going forward, but also in line with what we have seen in the past, with an uptick in Food, and also that we are going to invest at the same levels that we have done before in ratio of revenues, we are good when it comes to the profitability and the target for 2030.
Thank you. And last couple Capital Markets Day, you also raised your sales CAGR target 5 percentage points, and most of that was related to adjacent businesses. If you look towards 2027 now, it doesn't seem like it's gonna add that amount, at least. Why should we believe that it's different this time? It's still, I mean, a lot is feedstock, a lot is textiles. What's the visibility here for you guys? A lot of it is based on regulations. It's a bit difficult to get comfortable with both the margin targets now, which you've stated for the last couple of market days, and also the growth target, which has been raised, but yeah, not. You're not trending towards it, to put it that way.
Yeah. So, as Eva presented in her part, what has happened, you know, the last two years? So we are on track in Collection, we are on track in Recycling, and we are on track in Horizon. And it was not a significant part of Horizon in the 2027 targets then. And where we are not on track, it is in Food, and where we have had the setbacks. And that's why we are now saying we have sort of lost two years on Food, and that's also why we're now setting these as 2030 targets. So what do you need to believe in to believe in our targets? You need to believe that we can turn around food. You need to believe in that we are going to continue to deliver good, profitable growth in Collection and in Recycling.
You need to believe in that the fundamental drivers for our business will support our Horizon portfolio. I think Lars described quite well on the Horizon what the things do you need to believe in, that they are going to be really profitable and scalable businesses for us.
Thank you. Next question?
Yeah, thank you. So I think there seems to be a little bit of a confusion with that, the top line target, right? But if we... I think, Eva, you showed a slide where you want the service content of the revenue stream going from around 40% - 50%. Doesn't that imply that the growth rate will actually slow down for the group as a whole? And if the growth rate slows down, isn't the return on capital employed target a bit too low? I mean, you had, was it 2019, 2019-2023 something? And I think it's only one year, last year, when you didn't get to 18%. I mean, the bar is not very high, if you see what I mean. Maybe start there, and I have one more question, please.
I think a return on capital employed above 18%, so it's important to say that, it's not going to be 80%, but to consistently deliver above 18%, it is a good return.
Okay.
Yeah.
Let's say it's a good return, but what about the growth rate? If you're selling less equipment than you're adding service, doesn't that imply that the business growth for the group as a whole is slowing down?
No. So if you do the math, so you know, historically, we delivered 9%, as I've shown over the last 10 years. We will deliver then 15% CAGR going forward. A part of that will come from service revenue. A significant part of that will, of course, come from sales of our RVMs and
But you're lifting the service content by 8 percentage points, give or take, right?
Yeah.
As a total over the-
... period.
Okay.
You can look at... You can do the calculation.
It's a bit of a struggle to understand that, actually, but okay.
Okay, first you can explain it better, Eva?
Yeah, but I think it is fair, maybe we can come back to you-
... later in the one-on-one after the Q&A is done, because we can look at the market.
I got one more question: If you say you're a growth company-
... why do you prioritize dividend rather than actually redeploying, the biggest part of the cash into the business to grow rather than pay it out to shareholders?
Yeah. So for TOMRA, yes, we are a growth company and not necessarily just a value company. But, doing the combination of both is, I would say, a strength for us as a company. So being able to provide enough cash to both give dividends back to the shareholders, and also to deploy capital into the future is kind of like a quality stamp. So, yeah.
Next question?
Hi, Adela Dashian from Jefferies. In Collection, I mean, the regulatory drivers are obviously there. What can you say about the competitive landscape as it stands today and the future of it? And also the potential emergence of digital deposit return schemes, is that something that you're, you know, seeing as a challenge or a headwind or a potential opportunity?
Yeah. As I mentioned in my presentation, the competitive landscape, of course, becomes more complex, and there'll be more competition when we go into this and the industry becomes bigger and more global. Typically, we see more competition initially from startups and so on in the low-end segment, so the simpler machines, simpler installations, cheaper machines. If you look at the market, there is, I also mentioned these alternative collections and so on, and maybe in part of the world where the labor cost is lower, that there might be other solutions. We believe that sort of digital support, I would say, are interesting avenues there. And that was a little bit what I reflected, too, on the setup of new systems and solutions in alternative collection.
So yes, competition is increasing. We have a plan for keeping our leading position with the technology position we have today. So I think that's something which we are addressing and working with. I'm not really afraid of the competition, but of course, we always want to be leading on technology, leading on supporting our customers. So, as I said, being close to the customers in service and so on is also a competitive advantage for us, which is not only the technology part.
And on the digital deposit return schemes, is that something that you're seeing?
Yeah, if you look at. There are some initiatives going on around trying to sort of explore digital solutions. And we follow that. We are looking into that. But still, the drink containers are physical objects, so I don't think that we will see the same as we do on money, for instance, where you can have a pure digital transactions. But it is obviously an interesting avenue to look at, especially for the more low-income areas in the world.
Just finally on the competition then, I mean, your market share has been roughly 70%-80% globally, historically. But I think you mentioned in the presentation it will be closer to 50%, or at least that's what you're assuming in the new markets.
Yeah. We are not commenting on our market share, how big it is. I mean, you can calculate market share in many different ways. One thing is the number of machines, another thing is the revenue that you can generate from an installation. It's a very big difference from a small machine and a large machine. We have the throughput networks, which you know, how do you calculate the market share there? So, we are aiming to have a good market share also going forward. And in Europe, I said something about sort of what we put into our kind of numbers for the years to come, where two-thirds of Europe is included as part of it, and we have assumed then 50%.
As Tove mentioned, there are upsides, but there are also downsides, and these are sort of legislative processes which we can't control, but we are, of course, there when things happen.
Thank you. Any more questions? We have one from... Yeah.
Thank you. So, Markus Heiberg from SEB. Two questions, I can take them one at a time. So on the margin target in Collection, specifically, 18% or above 18% is a bit lower than where you were prior to the expansion in Europe. And we have discussed competition a bit, but could you elaborate a bit more on why the 20-30 margin should be lower than what we saw in previous years?
Yeah. So if you look at the margins, I think it will vary quite a lot. So if you look at it historically, it will vary quite a lot. And of course, if we have large rollouts, for instance, it will be better margin for us those years. So I think, you know, coming to this level, we are investing into new markets, and we continuously invest, and we see that this will not be just an investment in Europe. It will be also, I mentioned, investments in the rest of the world, which will be the key growth driver after 2030. So we believe that aiming for the high teens of EBITDA level is a good balance between profitability and investment into the future.
Okay. And then I'll take my final question here. So can you confirm the 15% IRR target for new projects? Are they also for the existing projects in Horizon? Because, of course, you didn't have this, at least to the market. You didn't communicate the 15% IRR target when initiating the feedstocks and the other projects that you have ongoing. Can you confirm that these are also retrospectively applying?
... Yeah, overall, for those two investments, it's in line with that threshold. But they are somewhat different, and I think we indicated that in our Q1 presentation as well, where the brownfield plant in Germany, it's very technically advanced. It's to prove the concept. And so that has, you know, profitability between 10% and 15%, and the Norwegian plant is more a commercial scale and has a higher profitability. But overall, it's in line. But as I indicated, a full-scale plant has a stronger profitability due to the scale advantages.
And also for the reuse and textile projects, are they also... that you have initiated?
So we haven't scaled that business, so it's only when we scale we look at that return. So what we're doing now is proof of concept, so to sort in orders. So that is more a pilot study than a commercial operation. Once that is proven, and we see a positive business case in line with that minimum threshold, we will scale it along with that requirement.
Okay. So just to clarify, the cost you're spending, prior to the scale-up, are not really into that 15% target, or is that the wrong interpretation of how you think about returns for new projects?
No, that is the right interpretation. So the cost we spend in the proof of concept, of course there is some return, but that's not in line. It's the scaling part when we have the targets.
Okay. Thank you.
Now we have a question from Timothy Left.
Yeah, thank you. Timo Heinonen at Handelsbanken. About the recycling growth, you just said that yes, the market growth is somewhat lower than you have expected two years ago. But, I mean, we have seen this for all kind of CapEx-driven businesses, that the decision-making is pretty slow today. So can you talk about anything about your pipeline? I mean, do you have more cases in the pipeline today than one year ago? And are you just lowballing with the growth outlook because of the slow decision-making for today?
Not really sure what you mean with more in the pipeline. Can you repeat that?
I mean, if you have more cases in the pipeline, I mean, more orders in the pipeline, because you are involved in the customers' investment projects very early, so you know what the customers are planning to do. But of course, then when they make a decision, that's what is impacting your orders today.
Yes. I mean, you're absolutely right. We have quite good visibility, because especially these big projects take up to two to three years planning in advance. So we have good visibility of our order pipeline going forward.
The question was, how does it look today versus a year ago? Do you see any signs of recovery?
Because it's not the underlying question here.
If we just compare the order pipeline for the next 12 months compared to the same period last year, it has slightly improved. Because the order intake pipeline for the 12 months to come, end of last year, was looking a bit lower, as we see this year because of the challenges in the markets, but we see a slight improvement there going forward.
Thank you.
Then we have a question from Fabian. Yes.
You said that you didn't include the DRS expansion in all of Europe in your targets. We know that France, Italy, Spain has been somewhat opposed to it historically. But with the PPWR in effect from 2029 , it seems like they need to do it. Do you not include it because you see any risk that they'll get there by other measures, or because you expect some delays to the timeline? Can you just elaborate on that?
Yes, it's the latter, that we see delays, but you might want to elaborate, Marius.
You take over?
No?
Yeah. No, I think, you know, these are political processes. Things are happening. They're large geographies. They are currently working on sort of what are their baseline, so they are looking at sort of what are their return rates that they have today. And then, you know, 2029 is the target in the EU. We know that, you know, for some markets, even if they introduce something, the investments comes later, and 2030 is not so far after that. So we also expect that some of these will, not necessarily delay as such, but will slide over past 2030. So it is, in a way, a balanced view on how we look at it. There are downsides, there are upsides.
Good. A question from Elliott, yeah?
Sorry, one more. On the collection margin again, about the balance between kind of new investment and new growth going forward, just to clarify, so are you expecting the gross margin there to kind of maintain, you know, above 40% or to increase? And so actually, it's more kind of OpEx growth, or is it? Are you expecting kind of a slight decline in gross margin because of potential competition, therefore, like, potential price wars or price declines?
Yeah, maybe I can take that one. So when it comes to the gross margin in collection, we are firm that that should stay above 40%. And when it comes to the profitability, where we have a target to be above 18%, that is a good margin in collection. We will, of course, see fluctuations in that margin, as we have seen in prior years. For example, when we have, you know, larger markets going live. But overall, the margin target is to stay above 18%, which I would like to say is a strong margin in collection.
... when you-- given that service is going to grow so quickly, how do you actually sell your service to your customers? Is it so part of the package? Is it like you sign up for a five, ten-year deal, or does-- And also do they differ between the different divisions, please?
Yes, and it differs. I think you can comment on it, each one of you, starting with Collection, which is most mature on our service selling.
Yeah. I think the answer is that it's very different. We are selling our service in different ways. Sometimes, like, it's that we have a throughput deal, and, of course, the service is included. We can have a premium service contracts, which are throughput driven. We can have service parts of the sale. So in a way, the service part also as an adaptation to what is needed or required in the market and with the customers. And I don't think that the main difference for service revenue growth will be in Collection division. We are quite good at that already today and have a good recurring revenue on our service parts. So there is more to optimize the profitability of the service that we deliver.
I have no microphone. Yeah. Is it working?
Yeah.
Yeah. So when we look into recycling, I mean, you were worried that, you know, the sales of new machines would be significantly lower. But remember that I said the growth in service that we foresee is in the high teens. So it is higher than the sales of sorters, but it's also very high in the high teens, the sales, the growth in service that we see. And why is that? You have to remember that recycling, where it was coming from. The recycling industry was not necessarily the most mature and sophisticated industry. So service in recycling means if something is broken, you call, service tech comes out and fix it. And with these very modern, fully automated plants, they are completely different requirements to our service. So we now can sell what we in the past never sold.
A service contract? We were never able in the past to sell a service contract to a customer. Said, "I don't need a service contract. I will fix it myself, and only if I need you, I will call you." That is completely different, of course, with the professional new players we see today. So we sell service contracts with a significantly higher degree than we used to. We sell a spare parts package as part of the deal from the beginning so that they have higher availability, so all the tools you have out there. So that's why we are quite optimistic about our service growth. It's just the professionalization of the industry that is driving it.
On the food side, we have a long way to go, so we have definitely not utilized opportunities we have on service. We know our customers rate both reliability, uptime, and service performance very high. We do mostly ad hoc service. We really want to get into service contracts and utilize the opportunity. The equipment we're delivering is, as I said, in the core of what the customers are doing, and uptime is just so important. It's a lot of opportunities for us going forward.
On M&A, it seems like you're prioritizing opportunities within the food division and waiting for the restructuring, the turnaround to come, at the later stage this year. That could potentially mean that by 2025, you would look at making acquisitions. Could this mean a potential setback to your margin targets?
Yeah. So priority in Food is to prove that we can turn around the profitability. And by prove, it means that we need to go beyond showing that we have a 10%-11% run rate by the end of the year. And we believe the restructuring will continue also into, you know, 2025 to settle. And then we have said, when we are confident about that, and we're confident that we have the structure in place and that we could potentially be able to integrate a new acquisition in a good and professional way, we will look at it. And why would we look at it? It is because the food ind- or if you look at the food sorting industry, it's still a fragmented industry, and we have a market share on roughly 30+ of that.
We believe that there will be value-generating opportunities in consolidation of that market. That is not priority now. It's not something we are actively working on. I'm not going to say when it's going to be happen, because there might be, you know, opportunities arising, but it's not really on our short term, one- to two-year horizon. This is late in the period that we are talking about. But we believe that it would be value-generating opportunities here, but based on, you know, our experiences in Food, we will not venture into that before we are really certain that we now have a good structure in place where this could be really, integrated and optimized, and we could take out the synergies.
We are approaching the end, but we have one more question coming in from the webcast, from Noa. Noa, you are now unmuted. Please introduce yourself and ask your question.
Hi, yes. Thank you. This is Noa Mooij. I work for the Dutch Financial Times. In the Netherlands, we are seeing a lot of problems actually being caused by the cans since they've been added to the return scheme. A lot of people are opening bins on the streets. A lot of trash is actually being caused by the expansion of the return system. I was wondering if you are aware of the problems and how you perceive them.
Yeah. Addressing the Netherlands, you know, two big extensions in the Netherlands with the introduction of the small PET bottles and also the cans coming in. These are really large volumes of objects, so I think it's two billion cans in the Netherlands market only. And, of course, the infrastructure needs to be catered for it. I think we see now, and that's also one of the reasons that our Netherlands division has run quite well over the last couple of years, that the market is adjusting to this volume coming in. I'm not really aware of that specific thing, but that is typically something that happens when you sort of add these things in, that you don't have the infrastructure in place yet to cater for it.
But we see that that's happening with the players in the market, and it's quite significant volumes coming in.
Thank you.
We have time for one final question. Anyone on the floor who would like to ask it? If not, we will say thank you very much to everyone who has tuned in to the webcast. Your day, your Capital Markets Day will conclude now, but for the rest of you, it has just started. You will be going to... Please go to the restrooms, get ready for the bus ride. The bus will leave 11:00 A.M. sharp. And for the other half of you, you have the breakout meetings. We will be outside to point you in the right direction where the meeting is. Thank you, everyone, for this first half of the day, and we'll see you in a moment again.