Good morning from Asker , ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to TOMRA's third quarter results presentation for 2026. My name is Bing Zhao. I am Interim Head of Investor Relations. As always, CEO Tove Andersen will start today's presentation by giving you the highlights of the quarter. Afterwards, CFO Eva Sagemo will dive deeper into the numbers and present our updated outlook. At the end of the presentation, we will open up for Q&A for participants in the Teams webinar. A link to the Teams webinar can be found in this morning's stock exchange release. With that, I give the word to CEO Tove Andersen.
Thank you, Bing, and good morning and welcome from me as well to our Q3 2026 presentation. I am pleased with what we have achieved in the quarter. We have created good top-line growth and even better bottom-line improvement. Overall profitability is still not where it should be, but it is good to see the improvements in Recycling's bottom line due to the measures we have made. Also great to see the strong operating cash flow. It was expected, but still nice to see it being realized. Collection continues this quarter to demonstrate the strength of its growth platform with revenues up 21%, driven by strong performance in the existing markets and continued new market activity. The gross margin was down compared to Q3 last year due to business mix, but up from the previous quarter.
In Recycling, improving profitability is the key priority, and this quarter we start to see the results of the measures taken, both on gross margin and bottom line. Revenues are significantly up in the quarter, but this is compared to a weak quarter last year. The division had a strong order intake due to exceptional orders in the mining segment. Our diverse portfolio in Food continues to support top-line growth, and we had stable quarterly gross margin. The order intake was flat as we continued to see a lower pipeline conversion of large projects. Let us then dive into the divisional updates. In Collection, our team delivered a new third-quarter revenue record of EUR 217 million, up 21% year-on-year, and it is the performance by our existing markets, Germany, North America, and Australia, which has delivered most of the growth this quarter.
In Germany, we are seeing the start of the upgrade and replacement cycle created by new technology standards in the German deposit system. All RVMs need to comply with these new standards by May 2029, which will support gradual upgrade and replacement opportunity for TOMRA. In anticipation of this, our German team has worked on different solutions to support our customers meeting the new requirements. We are offering both upgrades of their existing systems and replacements. It's now a year since the acquisition of CLYNK in North America. This acquisition gave us access to a complementary Collection solution for beverage containers, the BagDrop solution. We still believe this is a good solution for several segments, and we are currently rolling it out with a new customer. Synergy realization with our existing material recovery business in North America was the other key value driver behind the acquisition.
The joint CLYNK and TOMRA team has worked hard on taking out these synergies, and we are ahead of plan, and we will spend less to realize them than anticipated. We also had underlying growth in North America in the quarter due to higher throughput volume and kiosk sales in Canada. In Australia, good operation performance and higher Collection volume drove growth. As mentioned at the Q2 presentation, together with our joint venture partner Cleanaway, we have submitted our tender for the continued operation of the New South Wales Collection network. We are now waiting for the government's decision. Even though existing markets were the main growth contributors in this quarter, we have had significant activity in the new markets as well. In Poland, we have installed approximately 500 more machines.
The initial rollout wave is largely completed, and we have entered phase two, where we are targeting follow-up sales to existing customers and sales to independent and small stores. Our team in Singapore continues to perform well, which has resulted in additional sales in the quarter. End of Q3, we had around 500 machines compared to the initial 350 machines allocated to us, and we are still growing. This is a good example of how we can increase our share over time through delivering superior operational performance. Finally, in the United Kingdom, an important milestone was achieved in the quarter, where the first installation took place, as shown on the picture below. As you can see, a very proud U.K. team. Bottom right on the slide, we have listed the upcoming deposit markets, and I will only comment on key changes from last quarter.
France announced in August that they were stopping the DRS consultation process initiated in the spring. This does not change our view that France will need to implement DRS to meet the EU targets. It's not a question about if, but about when. Bulgaria has notified the European Commission of a draft legislation introducing a nationwide deposit return system. The draft envisages an 18- 24 month preparation period following operator establishment. In August, the Welsh government announced the appointment of Exchange for Change as the Deposit Management Organisation for its deposit return scheme. This is the same as for the rest of the U.K., which is positive for a harmonized rollout. With one year to go until the launch in the U.K., I wanted to share how we currently see the market.
On the top right hand of this slide, we have summarized the key characteristics of the U.K. deposit scheme. I will not run through all the bullets, but I want to highlight two things. First, the deposit value of 20 pence, which, based on our experience, is high enough to make it worthwhile for people to return their bottles and cans. This means that we expect high collection rates, which will drive the need for significant investments in Collection infrastructure. It is important to keep in mind that it will typically take two to three years to reach the targeted collection rate, because we are talking about changing people's habits. Therefore, it will take some time before the retailers need the full Collection capacity. The second item I want to highlight is the last two bullet points, giving the handling fee structure and the grants.
The way these are structured, they will incentivize stores to automate collection of the beverage containers, also for smaller stores. Over to the retail landscape in the U.K., which is very diverse. There is a mix of local retailers participating in a deposit return scheme for the first time, but we also have international chains well experienced with such systems. When looking at the store size, there is a particularly large convenience store channel in the U.K., but there are also supermarkets and hypermarkets, as illustrated on the bottom left of the slide. There is significant commercial activity in the U.K. with a meaningful share of the initial market rollout to be contracted. Based on what we have learned so far, we expect the initial rollout to include a significant share of small and medium standalone solutions.
In TOMRA, we have leading solutions across the whole portfolio, but with the highest comparative strength in the larger, more complex, and integrated systems. We constantly work on understanding the customer needs and adjust our portfolio accordingly. As, for example, we did in Poland with the S2, which I talked about previously. Over the last year, we have also expanded and developed our basic line portfolio to ensure that we have a strong competitive offering for the smaller stores. The newest addition is our B3, which we launched last month in September, which we are currently marketing in the U.K. This is the most compact machine we have. It occupies actually less than half a square meter. Below right on the slide, you see our recurrent view of the rollout. We estimate phase one to represent roughly 25,000 RVMs, mainly installed with the larger retail chains.
The majority of the installation will take place in 2027, but with some spillover into 2028. Similar to Poland and Romania, we do not see the initial rollout as the final configuration of the market, and there will be a phase two. As retailers gain experience and actual return volumes increase, we expect capacity expansion and upgrades with the larger retailers and broader RVM adaptation among the smaller independent stores. It is challenging to estimate the size of this phase because it will depend on how many small independent stores will invest in RVMs. Our current indication is that it can represent 5,000- 10,000 machines. Last but not least, the important phase three with service and other recurring revenue kicking in, followed by replacement sales.
We are currently in phase one, and there is significant commercial activity in the U.K. as a sizable share of the market is still open to be won. It is very competitive, as we expect all new markets to be. It is fair to say that product differentiation is less for the smaller, less complex machines. The customer proposition is so much more than just the machine. The service performance, software applications, secure integrations, and reliability are key for the customer value. Our highest comparative strength in the larger, more complex systems will create an even stronger advantage over time as the market is expected to move towards more integrated systems due to operational efficiency. In addition, the larger stores are expected to handle a disproportionate share of collection volumes, and consequently drive a significant share of the investment.
We expect the majority of the phase one contracts to be landed by end of this year. So far, we have announced three totaling 5,900 RVMs. Worth noting is that we will only announce when a contract exceeds 1,000 RVMs. When talking about market share, it's more relevant to use revenues than machines as the value per deployment can vary significantly. We believe we are well- positioned in U.K., and our ambition remains to become the market leader. Turning to Recycling. We had good top-line growth in the quarter, but this was compared to a weak Q3 last year. The order intake was strong due to two exceptionally large mining orders. The mining business is a lumpy business due to the nature of mining investment projects, but it's great to see that we have won these orders. It's a confirmation of the strong portfolio and service network we have.
If you exclude the mining orders, we see a stable last 12- month development, which is in line with our view that the market sentiment is similar to Q2. It's not improving, but also is not getting worse. Metals continue to show good momentum and remain the relative area of strength, particularly in aluminum, where we continue to drive orders for our recent innovation, the AUTOSORT PULSE machine. While waste recovery and plastic recycling remain subdued. Customer investments continue to be constrained by high financing costs and energy costs, while the economics of plastic recycling remain challenging. A highlight in the quarter is that the PPWR came into force in the EU. This is a key piece of legislation which will drive growth towards 2030 and beyond due to higher recycled content targets. It is positive to see that EU stays firm and continues to implement this legislation as planned.
With the market being down, we focus on what we can influence, and it's good to see that the measures we have taken are increasingly supporting the earnings development. The cost reduction program is being executed according to plan and is establishing a lower structural cost base. Finally, the process to explore the option of divesting our mining subdivision is progressing. The process is about strategic fit and focus. Mining is a relatively small part of TOMRA, and we believe the business may have greater potential with an owner that can provide scale and focus while allowing us to concentrate on our core sorting segments. Then to Food, where we delivered double-digit growth in the quarter with strong momentum in citrus, blueberries, and vegetables, offsetting the continued down cycle in potatoes.
I am especially pleased to see that we are harvesting the value of our turnaround a few years back, when we reorganized to leverage better the diversification in the product portfolio. The order intake was broadly stable in the quarter. In EMEA, our team continues to perform very well as they are beginning to see the results of a structured sales initiative they have been running since last year. We are currently running several sales improvement initiatives in Food in all regions, with the focus of building a stronger customer relationship within core categories. In the Food business, this is crucial as customer relations last over decades. This combined with innovation is the key to drive profitable growth. In Americas, we are behind on order intake as the customers remain cautious on capital commitments despite solid underlying demand. The pipeline is there. Customer activity and pipeline remains healthy.
However, investment decisions, particularly for larger projects, are taking longer. We continue to monitor the situation closely through customer surveys, which is confirming this picture. Year to date, the order intake is below last year, but we see stable underlying demand and activity. Also as previously communicated, order intake in 2025 included many large orders with longer lead times. In addition to conducting customer surveys, we are monitoring plantings, as new or increased plantings drive the requirement for additional sorting and grading capacity. Currently, we see significant new plantings in all regions and in many of our core categories. This, combined with our broad exposure across the regions and categories, supports improving order intake and backlog going forward. Moving to Horizon, our portfolio of business building initiatives. After a period of investing, our focus has turned to scaling and realizing the value of the existing portfolio.
c-trace, our smart waste management business, is continuing to deliver good profitability while revenues are down due to phasing. In feedstock, Områ had good operation performance, and we are currently running at 60% capacity. The plant is still delivering positive EBITA, but the significant increase in incineration costs for our residual fractions is putting pressure on margins going forward. We are currently working on different mitigating actions to mitigate this. Reuse, our venture for replacing single-use cups and containers, is preparing for scaling, especially the event sector is looking promising. Last quarter, I mentioned the implementation at Intility Arena, which is performing well and has become an important reference for many potential customers. We have this quarter secured pilots with two major European amusement parks, which have the intent to implement a solution based upon successful pilots.
With that, I will hand over to Eva, who will go through the financials and outlook.
Thank you, Tove. Let's start with Collection. Collection revenues came in at EUR 217 million in the quarter, up 21% year-on-year, and somewhat above the phasing implied in our previous outlook due to earlier than expected orders in our existing markets. The growth was supported by strong execution across our installed base, in addition to the contribution of CLYNK. Key drivers included equipment demand in Germany due to new technology standards in the German deposit system. One-off equipment sales in Canada related to customers transitioning from leasing to ownership, and solid activity in throughput markets, particularly in the U.S. and Australia, supported by favorable commodity prices and volumes. New markets contributed with EUR 24 million, primarily from Poland, but also Singapore and Romania. Gross margin was 40.8% in the quarter, improving from Q2 as the share of revenues from Poland was lower than in the previous quarter.
Compared with Q3 last year, gross margin declined by 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to the revenue mix, as we had higher share of RVM equipment sales across both existing and new markets. Operating expenses were EUR 52 million in the quarter, compared with EUR 47 million in Q3 last year, and the increase reflects the continued buildup of activities in new markets, particularly Poland and the U.K., which contributed with EUR 2.5 million. In addition, the inclusion of CLYNK added EUR 1.5 million, while inflation and currency effects accounted for approximately EUR 2 million. This resulted in an EBITA of EUR 36 million in the quarter, up from EUR 29 million compared to Q3 last year. Looking at the short-term 2026 outlook, and with nine months behind us, we have narrowed our expected revenue range for the second half of 2026 to approximately EUR 410 million- EUR 430 million.
Following the strong performance in Q3, we expect growth in existing markets to normalize in the fourth quarter. New markets revenue will be driven by timing of individual rollouts. We expect some early installations in the U.K. toward the end of 2026, but the main deliveries are expected to take place in 2027. Our expectations for gross margin and operating expenses remain unchanged. Gross margin is expected to be above 40% in the second half and around 40% for the full year. Quarterly operating expenses are expected to be in the range of current level of around EUR 52 million, with in addition around EUR 1 million- EUR 2 million in negative currency effects reflecting current exchange rates. Then moving over to Recycling.
Revenue came in at EUR 54 million in the quarter, slightly ahead of the conversion ratio and up 34% compared to a weak Q3 last year. Gross margin ended at 47.7%, up 3.8 percentage points from Q3 last year, and the margin improvement was supported by higher volumes and COGS savings. Operating expenses of EUR 20 million in the quarter, marginally lower compared to previous quarter in Q3 last year. The cost reduction program continues to progress, although partly offset by quarterly activity variations and inflation. As a result, EBITA was EUR 6 million in the quarter, up from a negative EUR 3 million in Q3 last year. Order intake of EUR 73 million in the quarter, up 73% compared to Q3 last year. The quarter included exceptionally large Mining orders of EUR 26 million, which made a significant contribution to the order backlog.
Given the project-driven nature of Mining business, these orders should not be viewed as representative of the underlying quarterly run rate. Mining projects typically also have a lead time of 9- 12 months from order intake to revenue recognition, meaning revenues should be expected toward the end of 2027. With the large orders for Mining, we turned a negative last 12-month order intake trend to a positive 5% in the quarter. However, excluding the Mining orders, the last 12 months order intake was down 6% year-over-year. We end the quarter with an order backlog of EUR 124 million. Looking at the short-term outlook for 2026 for Recycling, we expect full year revenues in the range of EUR 205 million- EUR 215 million. We estimate that approximately 55% of the Q3 backlog will be converted into revenue in Q4.
Gross margins in Q4 is expected to be in the range of 50%-54% due to project mix and higher volume. Operating expenses are expected to come down to approximately EUR 19 million in Q4. The cost reduction program of gross EUR 16 million savings remain on track with around 2/3 of the savings impacting operating expenses. Full year effect of the cost reduction is expected from 2027. Moving over to Food. Revenues came in at EUR 86 million in the quarter, exceeding the expected conversion ratio due to timing of project deliveries and up 13% compared to Q3 last year. Growth was broad-based across most categories and more than offset the anticipated down cycle in the potato segment. Gross margin was 45% in the quarter, in line with Q3 last year.
Margins were in line with our expectations, reflecting the volume and mix of projects delivered during the quarter. Operating expenses of EUR 28 million in the quarter, in line with previous quarter, and up from Q3 last year, mainly due to inflation. As a result, EBITA was EUR 11 million in the quarter, up from EUR 8 million in Q3 last year. Order intake of EUR 75 million in the quarter, flat compared with Q3 last year. We continue to see good activity across several categories, although customers remain selective and larger projects continue to take longer time to convert into firm orders. On our last 12-month basis, the order intake was down 9% year-over-year. We end the quarter with an order backlog of EUR 110 million.
Also here, looking at the short-term outlook for 2026, we expect full-year revenues in the range of EUR 347 million-EUR 357 million. Based on the current backlog, we estimate that approximately 80% of the Q3 backlog will convert into revenue during the fourth quarter. Gross margin in Q4 is expected to be in the range of 43%-47%, and operating expenses for Q4 are expected to remain at current level. Then moving over to Horizon, revenues came in at EUR 10 million, in line with the previous two quarters. The continued ramp-up of the Områ feedstock plant was offset by revenue phasing in c-trace, with part of the expected revenue contribution shifting into Q4. Gross margin of 44.8% in the quarter.
Compared with prior year levels, the margin reflects the depreciation following the commissioning of the Områ plant in late 2025, as well as higher disposal costs in this quarter. Operating expenses of EUR 6 million in the quarter, in line with previous quarters. As a result, EBITA was negative with EUR 2 million in the quarter. Our focus now is on revenue growth, earnings progression, and capital efficiency. The short-term outlook for 2026 reflects this for Horizon. Full-year revenues expected in the range of EUR 45 million-EUR 50 million, with a stronger Q4 reflecting the contract structure in c-trace. Full-year operating expenses are expected at approximately EUR 27 million, reflecting higher activity levels in the second half. Full-year capital expenditures are expected below EUR 10 million, supporting growth initiatives across c-trace, feedstock, and Reuse.
Combining the results from all divisions, the group achieved total revenues of EUR 366 million in the quarter, a 20% increase compared to Q3 last year, driven by growth across all three divisions. The gross margin was 43% in the quarter, improving from Q2, but down from 44.1% compared to Q3 last year. The decline was primarily driven by business mix effects in Collection. Operating expenses of EUR 110 million in the quarter, unchanged from Q2 and up from EUR 104 million compared to Q3 last year, explained by ramp-up in U.K. and Poland, the addition of CLYNK, currency effects, and inflation. As a result, EBITA increased to EUR 47 million, up 55% compared to Q3 last year, demonstrating strong operating leverage despite the impact of the business mix and higher operating expenses. Currency effects had a modest impact on the quarter.
Currency provided some support to the reported revenues, especially in Collection, while also increasing the operating expenses due to the stronger Norwegian krone. Overall, the net effect on EBITA was limited. This quarter, we delivered strong cash flow from operations of EUR 112 million, up from EUR 64 million last year, supported by higher earnings and a favorable development in working capital. Working capital ended the quarter at 16% of revenue, down from 19% a year ago. During the quarter, receivables related to new market activities in Collection, particularly Poland, were converted into cash. Cash conversion will reflect the timing of working capital related to new market activities in Collection, especially in the U.K. going forward. Cash flow from investments was negative EUR 12 million, compared with negative EUR 68 million last year.
The reduction reflects a lower investment activity in Horizon, while Q3 last year also included the acquisition of CLYNK. With investment activity front-loaded in the first half, we expect a lower level of investments in the second half, while remaining on track for full-year capital expenditures of approximately EUR 90 million-EUR 100 million, primarily directed towards our core division. ROCE improved from the previous quarter, ending at 16%, supported by higher earnings and lower working capital. Compared with 17% in the same quarter last year, ROCE continues to reflect the recent acquisitions, strategic business building activities, and lower profitability in Recycling. Continued focus on profitability, working capital discipline, and capital allocation is expected to support ROCE improvement over time. Our financing position remains solid, with a weighted average debt maturity of 3.8 years and a liquidity buffer of EUR 135 million in undrawn facilities.
The equity ratio improved to 36% following the strong cash generation, and we remain comfortable above our covenant requirements of 30% and continue to have substantial covenant headroom. Gearing improved to 2.08x at quarter end, supported by strong cash generation. Net interest-bearing debt at the end of the quarter was EUR 593 million, down from EUR 651 million in Q2. With maintaining a strong liquidity position in the fourth quarter, we expect gearing to remain stable. Over to the outlook. We have already covered the outlook for the remainder of 2026, so let me close by highlighting that the long-term fundamentals supporting TOMRA remain firmly intact. Across our divisions, we continue to benefit from structural trends such as regulation, resource scarcity, automation, and circularity. These trends support growing demand for technologies that improve resource productivity and reduce waste.
And with the leading market position, strong technology, and a proven track record of execution, we remain well-positioned to deliver sustainable, profitable growth over time. Before we conclude, I would like to remind you of our Capital Markets Day on 24th of November here at TOMRA head office in Asker. During the day, our executive leadership team will provide a deeper update on our strategy, execution priorities, and long-term growth opportunities across the group. The event will be webcast for those unable to attend in person, but the participants joining us here in Asker will have the opportunity to experience live demonstrations of our technologies and engage directly with members of the executive leadership team in smaller breakout sessions. With that, I hand it back to you, Bing.
Thank you, Tove. Thank you, Eva. With that, we move over to the Q&A. Please raise your hands in the Teams webinar to ask a question. I see that we already have some questions coming in, so the first question will be from Barclays, Morayo Adesina . Please go ahead.
Hi, team. Morning. Thank you for taking my question. The first question is just trying to understand about the potential revenue profile in the U.K. Thank you for the color on the potential machine makeup. Is it fair to say that there could be backloaded revenue acceleration in Collection just because obviously you mentioned that the initial rollout would maybe be skewing towards small and medium standalone machines, and then you only expect the market to move towards the larger integration machines over time. Does that mean that we'll see more revenues coming in later on versus at the initial rollout? From your commentary, is it safe to say that there's still a large portion of the large tenders still outstanding, or is it more of the smaller tenders that are still outstanding?
Finally, just quickly in Recycling, are we to treat the exceptionally large mining orders as a one-off then, since you're still considering divesting the segment? Those are my two questions.
If I start on the phasing in the U.K., what we have indicated is that there will be a phase one, roughly 25,000 machines. Some of it, a small portion will come this year, majority next year, and some of that will have a spillover into 2028. Then the phase two, as I said, it is quite challenging to estimate exactly how that phase will be. It will depend on the collection rates and how fast they will ramp up, because that will then give the retailers the insight that they will need more capacity, and it is also going to depend on the penetration in the smaller store segments. That is why we indicate that that phase will initiate 2028, but it will continue then, and it will continue for one or two, three years.
For example, what we saw in Romania, we have actually had a tail that I guess have lasted three years, Eva? Something like that. It is really difficult to estimate. I think the key thing is that there is a significant potential here, and it will take two to three years to really realize that full potential.
She also had a question on the size of the tenders that have been closed.
Yeah. There is still significant tenders outstanding. We expect all of those to be, or most of those, at least the large ones, to be closed by end of the year. We feel that we are well-positioned in the U.K., and our ambition is really to be the leading player.
Yeah. Then the question on the mining orders. Yes, I would treat them as more one-offs, because this is unusually large orders coming in for mining, thinking about the top line in a normal year of EUR 30 million, which we have had over the last year. So I would treat them as exceptional.
Great. Thank you so much. If I could just squeeze one more in, is there any sort of color that you can share on the average selling price of U.K. machines, or are you not disclosing that yet?
As we said, there is still significant outstanding volume to be won, so it is too early to really conclude on what will be the average selling price in the U.K. As we have communicated also at Q2, the retailers have asked for typically, they have asked for prices from everything from small machines to large integrated solutions and multi-feeds. As also I said in the presentation today, there is clear that there will be a significant portion of smaller standalone or medium standalone machines. We expect as TOMRA, since we have a stronger comparative advantage in the integrated and large systems, that probably our ASP will be somewhat higher than the average for the total market.
Great. Thank you so much.
Thank you so much, Morayo. Over to the next question from Danske Bank. Elliott Jones, please go ahead.
Guys, thanks for taking my questions. Firstly on Collection, you mentioned Germany. Is there any chance you could provide some more color on the addressable market there in terms of the potential upgrades and also the kind of timing profile, is Q3 a bit of a one-off and lumpy, or are you expecting more of a gradual linear increase there? I will pause there and then I will ask the next question after.
Yeah. I can take that question. For Germany, it's very nice to see that these revenues are coming in related to the new technology standards for the machines in that deposit system. We have a strong installation base in Germany of around 30,000 machines. Of that, half of the machines installed are already with the requirements for the deposit system with the new technology solutions.
The deadline for having that upgrade is in May 2029. We would assume that we would have revenues coming in from Germany related to this in the period from now until then, May 2029. Of course, this is fully up to the customers, how they would like to take in that requirement, either with an upgrade with the existing machines or a replacement of the machine. It' s nice to see that it is already coming in this quarter.
Got it. Thanks. Then just on Collection again in the Q4s, obviously you have narrowed the range for H2. I just wanted to check, is that thinking more due to certainty of existing market developments in the quarter, or is it more due to potential movements in new markets installations?
Yeah. For the Collection revenues for full year, it stands, as we said, in Q2. We had a bit more revenue in Q3 than what we anticipated looking into Q3. It' s more that the Q3 was better than what we anticipated looking into the quarter, and then Q4 will follow given the yearly estimate for the full year.
Got it. Then, sorry, last question. Just thinking about ramp-up costs and OpEx going forward. I think in Collection it has been around EUR 20 million per year for a while now. Is there any kind of way you can give us some color on how that develops going forward? Is there any reason to think that that number should change, up or down?
For the Collection OpEx, we have a roughly run rate of EUR 52 million, give and take. Now we have some currency effects in that as well, estimated for the next quarter. We believe that that would be the run rate also going into 2027, including then ramping up in new markets. But of course, we need to see, and I think we need to come back, of course, if some new markets come in that require some ramping up costs. Of course, we would have also inflation on top of the current run rate. But we estimate that to be around the same run rate plus inflation so far.
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you very much, Elliott. Then over to the next question from Pareto, Fabian Jørgensen. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just a question on the U.K. and the timing of the second wave here. Traditionally we speak of the second wave as the convenience stores, the smaller formats. But you announced, what is it, two days ago now, a contract for what seems like your convenience stores with smaller RVM formats and then VIP goes down the same for a wholesaler group. It seems like these are going to start in 2027, and you indicate that the tail end is going to start in 2028. Could we see the tail end starting in 2027 as well? I understand that it's going to extend for a longer time period, but that actually comes on top of the tier ones.
Yeah. Just to clarify. When we talk about phase one, we talk about the large retailers, the large retail chains. Several of those in the U.K., they have a lot of smaller convenience stores as well. When we talk about small, independent retailers in phase two, it's typically those that are not part of the large retail chains. We still believe phase one will mainly be driven by the large retail chains, but they have also smaller stores. It' s going to be interesting to see in the U.K., these smaller independent stores, as I highlighted in the presentation, the way they have put up the deposit system with these grants, with the handling fees that are then rewarding if you invest in automation. It might be that we will see more sales into also these independent stores earlier.
But we are currently not seeing that. The activity that we are currently seeing is with the large retailers.
Thank you, Tove. On Poland, if you look at the government data that has been published, it says that installed RVMs has risen from some 14,000 to 23,000 during Q3. That seems like a lot of RVMs, and just wondering how you interpret that number. Is it a lot of semi-automated solutions that potentially will be upgraded over time? Who is actually winning those volumes? You mentioned 500 installed over that time period.
Yeah. We also, of course, have seen that figures, and we have seen different references to the number of RVMs in Poland currently, and we are not really able to reconcile some of these numbers with the way that we see the market. What we do know is how many containers that have been collected through our machines. That's what we monitor every day, actually. We know the actual collected container volumes that have gone through the system, which confirms very much the picture that we saw in Q2 than that we presented in Q2. But we are also in Poland. We have now a portfolio of the basic line. We have small machines. We are positioning ourself also for that smaller independent segment, and we expect that there will be a significant tail in Poland to come.
Cheers. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Fabian. Then we have the next question coming up from SEB. Markus Heiberg, please go ahead.
Hey. Thank you. A couple of questions from me as well. On the Collection outlook, can you elaborate on the size of the Canada effect and if that was included in your outlook when you set that in Q2? Also, it seems like your U.K. revenues, there will come some revenues in 2026, trying to get a sense of why the midpoint of your guidance has not changed, or do you now feel more confident that you could reach the higher end of the guidance that you have set now?
Yeah. Canada was approximately EUR 7 million. That was already in the full year outlook that we gave in Q2. But it came in Q3 instead of what we had thought, which was in Q4. Also the effect from Germany came in slightly higher than what we anticipated for Q3. That's also why we are now adjusting back to the more normalized annual run rate for existing markets in Q4. It's important to look at the existing markets overall within a year because we have some fluctuations between the quarters. For U.K., we have said that we expect some installations to generate revenues already in 2026, but we have not been that precise on how much will come in this year.
Okay. Thank you. On new markets in Poland, you mentioned 500 new RVMs there, and based on the commercial progress and the momentum that you are seeing in Poland, do you expect that to gradually taper off now, or could we see a re-acceleration in installations in Poland for Q4?
That would be more gradual.
If there were no questions from you, Markus, I think we. Oh, sorry.
Yeah, sorry. Just on the gradual, it's gradually down from the current level, or do you expect it could re-accelerate?
It's gradually down from the current level into Q4, and then we need to see how the tail develops in 2027. It' s too early to be precise on how we look at that. But as Tove said, it's a huge potential also for the tail, and we are ready to be part of that with our machines and the portfolio of TOMRA.
Thank you. My final question, if I may, is on the Recycling order intake. I appreciate that the mining orders are exceptionally high this quarter and lumpy, but comparing with Q2, are there any mining orders there as well, or should we just completely exclude these orders when we look at the progress from Q2?
Yes. In Q2, we had also orders in from mining, but we talk less than EUR 5 million.
That's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you, Markus. I believe we have maybe a follow-up question from Pareto, Fabian Jørgensen, if that's the case.
Yeah. Thank you. A couple of people have asked the question. I don't really get the sense of what has happened, but the top end of the Collection guidance, why is that no longer obtainable? What has taken it down from EUR 440 million to EUR 430 million?
It is really related to. When we give the range of Collection, what will really impact where we will land in that range is related to the new markets. The new markets, it's mainly Poland, but U.K., of course, and U.K. is kind of like the most uncertain part in that range calculation. Depending on how much U.K. revenues we will have in Q4 will decide where we land in the range. That' s also why we have now narrowed it a bit down because we are closer to the year-end.
Okay, so it's the U.K. installation pacing?
Yeah. The main reason is U.K.
Thank you.
Great. Thank you very much, Fabian. Just going to wait a couple seconds to see if there is more questions coming in. If not, we have reached the end of today's presentation. Thank you for joining us. The next quarterly results will be presented February 12, 2027. Until then, have a nice Friday. Thank you and goodbye.