Tomra Systems ASA (OSL:TOM)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Oct 22, 2020

Stefan Ranstrand
President and CEO, TOMRA Group

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, from Asker in Norway. My name is Stefan Ranstrand. I'm the President and CEO of the TOMRA Group. Next to me is Espen Gundersen, our CFO. Today, we are having the pleasure to report our third quarter 2020 results. Highlights from the quarter. A strong quarter, the best ever, both in terms of revenues and earnings. Our revenues for the group grew with 3% and ended at NOK 2.6 billion. We had an increase in Sorting Solutions, while a slight down in Collection Solutions, almost flat there. Improving gross margins, good control on operating expenses, together contributed to that earnings grow to NOK 500 million. Cash flow fairly similar to last year. That's the result part of it. On the market side, we have seen good stability in Collection Solutions. We still observe uncertainties, COVID-related, in the Sorting Solutions.

We will talk more about that shortly. We also, given the proxy that the general assembly have given to the board of directors to decide about the dividend, the board has decided to execute on dividend payment of NOK 2.75 per share, which will be paid out in the fourth quarter. Let me go down and talk a little bit about the businesses, starting with Collection Solutions. In general, we can say that Collection Solutions is predominantly serving the retail market, collecting bottles at retailers. That's the majority of our installations. Across the board, that segment has been very stable. Whilst we have seen people consume less food in restaurants and other food services, people have continued to eat as before, in consequence, they have gone more to retailers.

In many parts of the world, retail have experienced an increase in volume, in revenues, and also we have seen, in many parts of the world, a strong increase in beverage consumption. These are two elements that contributes to giving stability and a good market landscape for Collection Solutions. If I go down to the geographical markets, Europe has been, I dare to say, very solid. In Northern Europe, very strong situation, and more business as usual in Central Europe. North America was affected by the corona situation in a different way, and we have to remember that in North America, we have about 50% of the installed base on what we call throughput lease. I'll come back to that shortly, describing the graph we have above.

In Australia, which we entered in the last years, we have seen also a small hiccup in the second quarter, but that's back to normal, and actually, we are experiencing slight growth in the region. If I now turn to the graph, which you have on the top left, you can see a dark blue line. That represents the European market. If you look at that over time here, it's a steady business. Really business as usual. If we go into the light blue one, that is representing North America. As I said, about 50% of the installed base is on throughput lease here, meaning that we own, we install the equipment, and we get paid for every time the machine is utilized. In other words, every time a bottle is being returned.

In many parts of North America, due to coronavirus, regulators forced us to close down the redemption centers where we have our machines, and consequently, people could not return the bottles and cans. When that was opening up again, which we saw then still in the second quarter, we could see a slight above normal volume, and that is probably the result of that people had stored bottles in garages and storage spaces and then wanted to return them. We see that in the totality, and especially if we think of many consumers living in smaller apartments in cities like New York City, they don't have that opportunity, so these volumes have been lost into other waste streams. After it's all normalized, we are now more or less on the same level as last year.

Again, back to a normal situation. Australia also had a dip, a very short one we can see here, and not such a wide outbreak of the corona. Definitely, we saw the results and afterwards it is returned to normal, and the normal for Australia is a slight growth year on year since we are still in a build-up phase there. That is the situation. We can learn from this. We can see that we were able to address the situation. Actually, the team has done a fantastic job in that regard. I would like to address the TOMRA culture and the TOMRA people. I am very proud of them. They have addressed that very nicely. We are back to normal here. However, we should also remember that would we have another serious corona outbreak and regulators imposing closedowns, we will see more effects.

That's an uncertainty which goes with us going forward. We are ready to handle the situation. We have learned from the first outbreak, so I think we would definitely be in a good position to handle it going forward as well. I would like to talk about some new markets. Very proud to announce that on the 1st of October, we went live in Western Australia. Until now we have had recent installations in New South Wales and in Queensland, and now Western Australia also opened up the system. It was a bit of a challenge because we had planned to have people from the more experienced markets, like in New South Wales, traveling over to Western Australia to support in the buildup.

That was partly not possible because of the travel restrictions, so we really had to do it with a local team and with remote assistance. They made a fantastic job. On the day, all our installations, it's only five installations. It's a smaller market, and we got a smaller share of that market, which we have communicated earlier, but they were flawless, making us very, very proud. The team has done a fantastic job there, and we were again, as TOMRA, demonstrating quality, capability, and execution power. We stood out in that regard, and we got a lot of positive feedback for that successful launch. We are up and running now in also Western Australia. That's really a good development for us.

Further to that, we can note that the Netherlands, which have been working on the deposit extension, have decided that they will also include small plastic bottles into the system. That has been announced before. We expect that expansion to go live July 2021. In consequence, we are now a little bit in a wait and see situation to see how that will execute, how the retailers will implement such a system expansion. We are well-positioned there. We have a local team since years with sales and service, even some local manufacturing, so we are very well positioned to serve the market, and we are looking forward eagerly to do so. Also, a small addition, but every addition is meaningful and this one in particular, it's Latvia. It's geographically close to Estonia and Lithuania, where we are since years.

This market is expected to go live February 2022. It's a smaller market, but still, I think we are very keen to serve that opportunity as well. That is now under development, and I think in the SAM Collection Solutions, I see it as business as usual, really going through the corona situation. Given that Collection Solutions stands for around 50% of TOMRA's revenue and TOMRA's business, it's a very good foundation for us as a group to have this stability and support for our overall business. Going forward, talking about Food. We have labeled it into two areas. One is the process sector where food is being processed into french fries and other type of processed food. That's quite a big part of the Food portfolio.

We have the fresh sector where we work with fresh fruit, berries, and different categories like that. We have experienced good momentum in the fresh food sector, with growth in the year and continuous good market outlook. The processed food have been a bit challenged, and still is, and very much due to the situation that our biggest market, North America and Europe, are challenged in the food service sector. We call it the HoReCa, hotel, restaurant, catering. In United States of America, that sector makes up about 50% of revenues, whilst in Europe, it makes up to about 40% of the total food consumption, so to say, or food spent.

When these sectors are struggling, consequently, the industry is struggling, and there is an uncertainty for sure in the industry. I'm confident that we have been able to, at the minimum, maintain our market position in this period and maybe outgrow the market slightly in fresh food. I don't have hard evidence for that, the indicators are there. The Food has shown good stability, good resilience, but again, we have a sector of processed, and that also gives a bit of a cautiousness when we think ahead of order intake. We like to just remain cautious on that side. We have experienced good revenues growth and earnings growth in Food in this quarter, but Espen will come back and talk about the numbers later on. We are on a good trajectory with our Food business. Going over to Recycling and Mining. Also here, a mixed picture.

We have, in the recent years, experienced a strong growth in both these sectors. In this year, we have now experienced, due to volatility and pricing of commodities, also structural changes in the market, we have experienced a bit of uncertainty. We see still a strong situation, market robustness in the waste sorting and the recycling of high-quality PET, and they make up the majority of our market, so that's good. Whilst we see a slower momentum in the metal recycling and in mining. I think predominantly this is stemming back to the volatility and uncertainty around commodity prices, which clearly affects our customers' business. On the right-hand side, you can see a graph showing the price levels for PET, which is virgin PET and recycled PET. You can see since the beginning of 2019, rPET, which we call it, is having a premium in the market.

That clearly comes from the commitment from the brand owners, in this case, I think we can say the beverage industry, that really are working on their plans, their strategies to execute sustainable packaging. They basically want to get hold of every bottle that is recycled and use them for new bottles. Of course, that affects TOMRA twofold, both for the collection and for the Sorting business. We don't see that this situation will change. The more bottles we can collect, the more we will have to sort, and the market is there, and there's still a long way to go until we could satisfy the demands in that market. That's where we are on that.

Also worth noting is that European Union are close to finalizing the European plastic tax proposal, which is a very important signal from European Union that they want the producers to take responsibility. They want to drive for circularity, and they want producers to take responsibility. It's very sizable. They are talking about imposing a tax of EUR 800 per ton. If you then think that plastics typically trade, virgin plastics trade at levels between EUR 500-EUR 600 per ton, up to EUR 1,500 per ton, you can recognize that EUR 800 is a massive impact. We don't know exactly how this will be implemented, so we just want to share the information with you here. It would definitely send a signal to the industry that the regulators demand them to do something.

If they do nothing, there will be costs on the system, if they, however, are able to recycle, they will get free from this levy. This is, again, in combination with the Single-Use Plastics Directive, the European Union is really demonstrating strength and a strategic direction where they say, "We want a Circular Economy in Europe." That is very nice in the eyes of TOMRA. Also very much because we are strategically very well-positioned and very determined to position TOMRA as a leader in the growing Circular Economy industry. As an example for that, last year, we actually built up a separate division which we call TOMRA Circular Economy, where we have experts, and we are working intensely now on developing solutions and credible business in that area.

We have come quite a good way, but that is something we should talk about more at a later stage. For now, I really like to talk to you a little bit on what we see here on this graph. That's a recent study made by The Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ, which really demonstrates the situation of plastic and especially focus on the plastic in the ocean. The study says that they expect a tripling of the plastic into the ocean by 2040 unless we do something about it. Basically going from today's levels of round number 11 million tons per year ending up in the ocean up to 29 million tons by 2040. There is a critical urgency here to do something, and that's what they're pointing at.

They're also saying that the present commitments and framework laid out by governments and industry will only contribute to reducing the plastic into the ocean by 7% by 2040. There is a need to do more. They say that there's not one single solution that will solve this. You have to work both upstream and downstream to resolve the problem. Further, they say that - sorry, I have to change page here. There are solutions available today that could reduce the flow into the ocean by 80%. It's possible to do it, but it requires sharp actions and regulations. Maybe we can also link that to we saw what the European Union is doing. They also say that the change scenario is economically viable for government consumers. It's not a disaster, but we have to do drastic changes.

They say reducing approximately 80% of plastic leakage into the ocean will bring life to new circular plastics economy with major opportunities and risks for the industry. The recycling here will be a very important element. They also talk about reducing consumption of plastic, there I'm proud also to share with you our newest technical solution where we are now working with a SodaStream company on collecting the gas bottles for their solutions. Meaning that people can use the tap water and have carbonated water drinks and other drinks at home. We are working both on the concept of recycling, that's at the core of what we do, and that's a significant part of what SYSTEMIQ and Pew are talking about here. We are also working on concept for how we can reduce the consumption of new plastic bottles.

With that, I intend to hand over to Espen and ask you to take the financials.

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

Thank you, sir. Yes, as always, let's start with currency reporting in Norwegian Krone. In particular, we are exposed to currency fluctuations and we are also this quarter having some tailwind from currencies. The euro has strengthened 8% and the dollar 3% versus same quarter last year. Still positive effect, even though not as high as we had in second quarter, where it was around 15% + impact from currencies. The P&L, as Stefan said, stable collection performance, so it's Sorting that's contributing to the growth this quarter. Margins are improving, mainly coming from collection. As we said during the call for second quarter, we expected a flattish stable development in OpEx, and that's also what we're reporting. Currency adjusted, it's slightly down actually versus last year.

It indicates good cost control, but still, we manage to continue to invest when it comes to new initiatives, in particular the Circular Economy initiative, which is reported under Group Functions and is an area where we have cost increase. This is offset by cost reductions within the divisions. To summarize, it's all-time high revenues. It's all-time high EBITA, first time above NOK 500 million. It's also an EBITA margin north of 19%, which we are proud of, so to say, in these times. Looking at Collection, Northern Europe are doing good, as Stefan said. North America, the way we report, is slightly down. The underlying volumes are close to normal. There's some technical change from material recovery where a contract that previously was booked as a gross contract, now has been a tolling agreement where we only collect the net.

it's just that reduced our revenues around NOK 20 million without any bottom-line effect, NOK 20 million for the quarter. It's minor, but explains a little bit why we see slightly lower NOK figures and reported figures from North America. Rest of the world is mainly Australia. Australia is slightly up, as Stefan said. Some other markets I report underneath there, mainly old refillable markets are slightly down. Currency adjusted is flattish in the rest of the world. Overall, the stable business. Due to good cost control, some mix effects, we also have a strong 45% gross margin in the quarter, and operating expenses is down, despite that we continue to invest in what you say ramp-up related activities, establish ourself in new markets where we assume deposit is about to materialize, strengthening the central organization.

Round figures, we can assume that 10% of the operating expenses is ramp-up related. It's this quarter, and it's been also the previous quarters. Bottom line, NOK 316 million, 25% EBITA margin. In Sorting, we indicated a 70% conversion ratio in this quarter, ended up close to 74%. It's been a good quarter revenues-wise. Food has been up, partly offset by Recycling going slightly down, but still in total, a positive top-line effect. If you look at geographies, we have growth in all major geographies. Strong gross margin, slight improvement also here, and cost control, where we have flattish development on OpEx when we adjust for currencies, and then 17% EBITDA margin in the segment. Order situation. The order intake was slightly better than we assumed and communicated by the end of last quarter.

We said that we believe that the order intake will probably be somewhat below second quarter. We ended up actually slightly above second quarter. It's down 15% versus the same quarter last year. We have a rather healthy backlog. It's up versus the third quarter 2019 in Norwegian Krone, flattish currency adjusted. The conversion ratio, meaning what we believe the revenues will be expressed as a percentage of the order backlog at the end of this quarter is 80%-85%. As we always say, this is not guiding. We will never send a profit warning if we are outside, just indicating you when the installations are assumed to take place based upon what we now see going into the fourth quarter. Balance sheets. It's growing, it's mainly currency you're seeing. There's really nothing that stands out specifically here.

Looking at what we had one year ago, the total assets has increased with 8%, and that's also what the currency has increased. Receivables are higher, but that's mainly due to seasonality in the U.S., and it will go down during fourth quarter as it has done previous four quarters also. Cash flow from operations is stable from last quarter, or same quarter last year. We still have a solid balance sheet, 50% equity, rather low gearing, 0.7 x interest-bearing debt on the EBITDA. As Stefan said, with the current momentum, with the current outlook, with the current performance, with the current balance sheet liquidity, everything taken into consideration, the board has decided to pay out NOK 2.75 per share as a dividend with the share going ex Monday, 26th of October. It's not going ex today, but on Monday. More financing.

We are privileged in the respect that it's easy to get financing. For that reason, we have allowed ourselves to have a rather short debt maturity. It's below two years now. Revolver, which is expiring next year, the EUR 130 million that expires in second and fourth quarter to 2021 is about to become short-term debt. It's needed to refinance this one. We have started the process to replace it with probably EUR 150 million revolver, three-year long, and then we fit in the maturity plan with the bonds then in 2022 and 2024 and the RCF in 2023. This process is assumed to be concluded before year-end. It will add additional unused credit facilities to us compared to where we are today, where we are around EUR 1 billion. Of course, there will be a dividend payment in October that will negatively influence this.

A positive cash flow from fourth quarter will offset most of this. That's what's happening on the financing side. Segment reporting. We have historically, thank you, had one segment in TOMRA. I mean, now going back 15 years to the Collection business, it was only about reverse vending machines. We acquired TiTech, went into waste recycling, extracting plastic and paper from waste streams. It was a start of a journey where CommoDaS were acquired going into metal recycling in 2006. In 2010, 2011, Odenberg, BEST, big food companies expanding into that segment and adding on top Compac and BBC the last three years. We have a history of forming Sorting through acquisitions, going into the business stream mainly of Recycling and Food. There has been a significant organic growth on top of this.

The last 15 years, on average, the organic growth in Sorting has been 16%. Food has, over the years, been a bigger and bigger part of this. Today, it accounts for 60%-65% of the revenues within the Sorting segment. The little sister has been the big sister within the Sorting family. Food is now a global organization with more than 1,400 employees. We are present in all geographies or all continents, and if you include agents, we are present in more than 80 countries now. Both to reflect the size and the complexity and to better adjust opportunities within this segment, Food will be organized as one division. Michel Picandet has been recruited and now heading up this global organization.

He's a very experienced manager with broad experience from companies like Tetra Pak and Sidel, is now a member of the ELT executive leadership team, reporting to Stefan. I don't know, Stefan, do you want to add more into this, or is it straightforward?

Stefan Ranstrand
President and CEO, TOMRA Group

No, I think it's very good. You should know that TOMRA has a strategic view on two major end markets. One is the markets we see within the space of Circular Economy, where we talk about Collection and Recycling, that's being shaped up as an end market. Right now, it's not a market per se, but the way we see things are developing, that would be one of the core areas, and therefore we have positioned ourselves both with an organization for that and the whole setup, what we do in collaboration, developments, et cetera. The second area is Food, and these are two mega markets, really gigantic markets. We are number one in both of them. In order to remain focused, have the right priorities set, the agility, we see it's very natural to give this transparency, but also focus on Food.

Really nothing changing. For us, it's important that we maintain the core strategic elements that we laid out when we built up this sector. We wanted to spearhead in technology by being able to have economies of scale, invest more, and be leader in technology in the Sorting arena. That will not change. We will still have a core R&D that is combined for the two different divisions, Sorting and Recycling, Mining and Sorting Food, and we also leverage the operational side. All market-related activities like sales, service, application, engineering, these are different, and that we recognize, and that's really what we want to do here to give even more attention and better service to our customers to even strengthen our leading position from today. That's all I want to add, Espen.

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

Good. You will then see fourth quarter report with three segments, the Collection business, the Food, and the Recycling Mining business. We will also be provided with historical information for the last quarters for comparable reasons. Those of you modeling us out there will be able to receive a separate spreadsheet close to the release of the fourth-quarter report where the old figures are restated. Going to the outlook statement. We are in a good shape. TOMRA is maybe not essential business, but our customers are essential businesses. Food retail, they will be there. People eat and drink. Waste management, they will be there. The food producers, there will be a need. The underlying momentum in what we are doing is there, and we started the year very good. Just look at the order intake we had in first quarter.

Both fourth quarter last year and first quarter this year shows the momentum in what we're doing, and this is still there. There are some challenges in regions, in segments, for periods, that the COVID situation is creating. This we have seen in second and third quarter and will continue to be there as a distraction as long as we have this situation. It hits differently in the different areas, and a large part of TOMRA is not really much influenced at all. At least we manage to deliver and continue business the way we have done previously. If you're looking down to our divisions, in Collection, it's overall business as usual. We have an organization where, for instance, service techs are living close to the machines. You don't need to travel far distances to get there. It's an important machine.

Retailers in general acknowledge that after the checkout system, the RVM is the most important machine in the store. Don't maintaining this machine, don't reinvesting in it, is a shortsighted strategy because your customers would go other places, meaning the consumers go other places to shop if you don't continue to have this well-functioning. There could be outbreaks of COVID, which is so severe that things can close down as we experienced in Northeast U.S. for a period of time. That is out of our control. Let's say for those situation, I think overall the business is as usual in Collection. In the coming quarters, we will hopefully also see a positive effect from the Dutch expansion as they are moving into or expanding their system, as Stefan told you.

Exactly how much and when, is still somewhat uncertain because of the timing of also the can introduction, which is part of the system change down there, which is a little uncertain when and if it materialize. They are going from large bottles to small bottles, that is for sure. That will alone double the volume. Then you have the can opportunity, which comes as an additional opportunity on top of this. In Sorting, there will be regional differences. The fresh segment, as Stefan said, is going good, will continue to go good, we assume. Still some more challenges in the processed segment. Overall, we feel that the momentum is like it has been for the last quarters, and we are optimistic for the opportunities within segment, no doubt about that. For recycling mining, it is also underlying good momentum.

There are areas which have so much more challenges. That goes for metal mining mainly, which you have fluctuations when it comes to commodity prices and more uncertainty created. PET, in particular, is a strong segment still. We usually don't say so much about the expected order intake. We should be cautious also this quarter, but with the strong comp figure we have for fourth quarter in 2019, we must assume that for quarter 2020, order intake will be lower, the way it looks today because of some distractions in some areas. Nothing dramatic in that respect. I think that concludes the outlook. As always, remember currencies, that will influence our performance. You know how this works, that's probably not important to use more time on.

Instead, maybe Stefan, I understand you have an announcement to make, so maybe we can do that at the end.

Stefan Ranstrand
President and CEO, TOMRA Group

Yes. Thank you, Espen. I just turned 60. I have now had the privilege to lead TOMRA for the last 10 years. I am into my 11th year. I am extremely proud of TOMRA. I think we have a fantastic crew, team. We have a strong culture. We have been able to execute on almost every opportunity we have been given a chance to do one. We have a clear leadership position in everything we do. We are by numbers, facts, by technology, by perception, we are seen as the leader. There is no doubt. We have been able to design a strategy or engineer a strategy that will give TOMRA more opportunities in the future than we have ever experienced. We are embarking on the Circular Economy, where we have two key elements, two key enablers for the transformation in the Collection and the Sorting technologies.

You should see that they actually hang together in the value chain. We also have a good opportunity to capitalize on digital solutions in that space. We have a very big industry called Food, which will go through the whole what we call agritech revolution, and the Sorting are critical elements to support our customers in delivering on higher productivity, higher quality, and also traceability for the consumers, for a supply chain that is getting more and more complex, and is truly globalized. We also see big changes here when it comes to the structures of serving the consumers, where they have traditional been going to retail. In the future, we will see a mix of retail and e-commerce, I'm sure. TOMRA is positioned to capitalize on these trends better than any of the competitors.

We have also, even during the COVID times, made sure that we have not stopped planning or working on a strategy execution. We have ring-fenced investments in R&D and development, business development. We are advanced in artificial intelligence and machine learning. We have a digital platform with big data opportunities, and we have a leading sensor technology platform. We are set to continue to grow. Not everything will come now or even tomorrow. It will grow over time. I think it's important that we have the right attention, the right focus doing that. I think for myself, given the fact that I've been serving for a long time, given the fact that I have turned 60, I would like to hand over to a successor in an orderly manner.

Given this, I have now communicated with the board and asked them to find a successor for myself. I will stay on board until a successor is in place. I have no other obligations or commitments made, so I am totally committed to support TOMRA, and it's in my personal interest to make sure TOMRA can continue to thrive in these very attractive market opportunities going forward, and also I'm very much caring for the people of TOMRA. With that, I will do my utmost to support transition, help the board in any way I can to appoint a new successor, get this person onboarded, and making sure that TOMRA can continue on a very attractive path. With that, I think that's what I wanted to have said here. Please, it's my own decision. It is no haste work here. We will do it in a planned fashion.

I hope you experience TOMRA as a quality company. We want to make sure this is also a quality plan and execution around this. Therefore, we will see each other again, but there is a, so to say, change planned here, and that's something I would like to communicate to you here. Thank you.

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

Well said.

Stefan Ranstrand
President and CEO, TOMRA Group

Well, with that, I think we can go over to if there are any questions.

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

Yeah. Katjana, do we have a question from the audience?

Speaker 3

Thank you. Thank you, Espen and Stefan. We will start with a question from Daniel Haugland from ABG. Congratulations on solid numbers in uncertain times. Question, Sorting order intake was a bit better than expected in Q3. Outlook is unchanged in text. How should we think about the next coming quarters on order intake? Has momentum changed, or is it more on the levels of last two quarters?

Stefan Ranstrand
President and CEO, TOMRA Group

I don't want to emphasize on any numbers. We are generally trying to be realistic. We want the investor community to find a trust base and transparency in what we do. For us, the last thing we want to do is to overpromise, but also not underpromise. Remember, the underlying fundamentals of the markets are there. The need for automation, for retrieving the maximum value out of the commodities that are being processed, being either metals, plastic, or food categories are there. Corona will actually lead to, I'm sure, an acceleration in automation because it makes the system too vulnerable to be depending on people when you look for maximum hygiene and safety. In the extension, we will see more automation coming out of learnings we make from the corona. In the short, in particular, two segments are still challenged.

I think the one we have talked to you about is processed food, where the industry have suffered now due to these dramatic changes in the market behavior, and traditional channels have been dramatically reduced in consumption. It's very easy, I think, for us all to understand the impact of close down of hotels and restaurants, et cetera. That's gone down dramatically. Though, when we talk to our largest customers, they are starting to think more positively. There's also a fundamental simple thing that if you have planted trees, like for apples or nuts or a bush for berry, when that category or the produce is grown, you need to process it. There will be a need here coming, and it's building up. Also, of course, every year, every day that goes, existing machine will be more and more depreciated, and that needs to be replaced.

That is not changing. The demand is there. It's the uncertainty and the fluctuation in the market that has affected the situation. Slightly positive on that, there will be an improvement momentum gradually here over time. Maybe not in the fourth quarter, but we do believe that it's building up now, and we have signals for that. On the Sorting side in Recycling and Mining, we continue to see good progress, as we said before, in the waste and rPET sector. The commodity price uncertainties and structure changes in the sector, and when I say structure changes, one big example is, of course, how the general plastics market has changed, especially since 2018 when China imposed the ban on importing of waste, the so-called National Sword. The biggest market in the world for plastic waste disappeared overnight, and of course, that has yet to find new takeoffs.

One way to do it is actually to find a Circular Economy concept to it, where you upgrade the material. We need to remain a little bit cautious on these areas, but it's not dark black here. It is slight positivism in the processed food in the horizon here, and we also see more stable commodity prices in the plastics and metals. Hopefully, that will also bring some more speed into the market. Again, that's the intelligence we have. We share it with you in this way, and we cannot predict in further details than that.

Speaker 3

Thank you. We continue with two questions on a similar topic. First from Mikkel Nyholt from Carnegie: "What is the main driver behind cost control, and do you envision this to sustain also going forward? Please give us an update on the cost trajectory indication forwards." From Marcela Klang from Handelsbanken: "Can you talk about your OpEx going forward?

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

Yeah. Third quarter, we were, round figures, flattish, currency adjusted, versus last year. In fourth quarter, you should expect a slight increase, but not more than a slight increase over fourth quarter. Overall, we have a good cost control. Elements of this is, of course, less traveling. We have additional costs, but we also get some help from governments and the different kind of systems that establish to help companies around the world. They typically lower social security tax, some support on furloughs and so on, that helps also companies like TOMRA. You could assume that the round figures, both for second, third , and also fourth quarter, that we have a positive effect from these type of initiatives, around NOK 20 million, of which 40% is hitting the COGS line and 60% is hitting the OpEx line.

It's a little arbitrary what we include and not include on this, but that's to give you a flavor for how that's influencing us also. Overall, I think, as I said, fourth quarter will be very much in line with fourth quarter last year, save maybe for a few percentage point up. That's how it looks today.

Speaker 3

Thank you. We go to the next question, also from Mikkel from Carnegie: "What is the sorting situation in South America? Difficult to track any stability in revenue. Is it Food or Recycling that causes the spikes?

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

It's mainly Food, and it's seasonality you're actually seeing here because they are on the southern hemisphere. Installations are usually coming up front for the harvest season, which is then the first quarter. Therefore, you see third and fourth quarter usually have higher. This year, third quarter was strong, and that's a little the timing between third and fourth quarter, really. That's actually what you're looking at.

Speaker 3

The next question is from Philippe Kievit, Degroof Petercam, and it has three sections. First section: "Regarding Netherlands, you said small bottle collection could double volumes, but to what extent can you upgrade existing machines, or are new machines needed to deal with this?" The second part of the question: "Any update on other new opportunities in Collection and Sorting? And Stefan, sorry to see you go, but all the best.

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

Well, on the Netherlands, you can say that in the modern deposit markets, you usually end up between 2,000 and 6,000 machines per capita. Netherlands today is somewhere in the middle. It's a rather old installed base, handling the large plastic bottles. As I said, the introduction of deposit of the small bottles will double that volume, and then there is the can uncertainty, whether that will be included or not, which will add additional volume here. For that reason, retailers will probably look into this and see whether they will upgrade, buy new, or buy additional equipment, and they will see all three of them. It's certain that the number of machines per capita will increase in Netherlands, so they probably will be on the high side when this is over, meaning closer to 2,000 than 6,000.

Little more than 17 million citizens in the Netherlands. You have to do some assumption around those data points and then take it from there if you want to model this. We are not certain ourselves either, it's hard to be more precise on this also. Also the timing between fourth quarter, first quarter, second quarter is more uncertain. This is much more first and second quarter next year event than a fourth quarter event. Do you have just one more question there?

Speaker 3

The second part of the question was, any update?

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

New markets, yes. Yeah. We pointed out three of them. Of course, Scotland has commencement 1st of June 2022. We have a lot of other projects going on. The Single-Use Plastics Directive is stating targets that the different countries has to deliver upon. We will be there when this evolves and I think we have seen projects move forward in time, but also backwards in time. It's a little, say, floating target. I don't think that any others we will mention particular at the time being, which there has been significant changes on. In Europe, outside Europe, there are good momentum around the remaining states in Australia, which also are on different path towards implementing systems like they have done now in New South Wales, in Queensland and Western.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Espen. On the same topic, we have a question from Knut- Erik Løvstad from Kepler Cheuvreux. Is there any change in the preparations in the EU countries related to the introduction of the Single-Use Plastics Directive or any specific development you can comment on? On the same topic, Marcela Klang from Handelsbanken. When do you expect a deposit system in England, France, but also perhaps Spain and Italy?

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

Yeah, I think we partly addressed that already. There's not really anything big new to communicate around those initiatives.

Stefan Ranstrand
President and CEO, TOMRA Group

Yeah. I think we have a tradition not to speculate. We build our communication on facts or information we get from authorities. You can rest assured that we have invested in quite a big team now to be there and support a team what we call governmental affairs, that's really working with the markets like we did early on in U.K. and Scotland. We have people in every market more or less in Europe doing precisely that. We have experienced that political processes, they are complex and much beyond our control for sure. In order not to mislead, we really communicate what we know and that's it.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Stefan. The next question from Mikkel Nyholt from Carnegie. Are you still actively pursuing M&A for any of the three divisions? In which could we eventually see something taking place?

Stefan Ranstrand
President and CEO, TOMRA Group

We have a little bit of a legacy that we say that we have a clear strategy. It always starts with that. How can we serve our customers better? How can we grab opportunities better? That we have worked on over years to build the position which we have today and make sure that we can extract the value out of the businesses we have included in the TOMRA portfolio and make sure that we can deliver more values to the customers than the competition can do. That's very critical. It really needs to be done with quality. It's all about when you acquire something, make sure that you don't destroy, but can build values on that, and that addition can add more value to the customer. That in the extension will help TOMRA to become better.

If you look into areas where we would scout, if I say so, for acquisitions that would be either in geographical context, portfolio extension, where you can say we can serve the customers in a better way than we could before or in technology extensions. That area is quite big field now when you think about the new technology developments around the computing digital or artificial intelligence, but also upstream, downstream developments in both Food and in Recycling sector given the whole Circular Economy evolution. Probably there would be a need for us going forward to be more active here. In the short, we don't expect anything, especially nothing significant.

I would also say that our willingness to enhance our focus on M&A going forward should increase a little bit, and we have also had the time now to integrate the latest acquisition being Compac and BBC, and they are performing very well, I'm glad to say. We are now more ready to look ahead again than we have been in the past, but in the short, don't expect anything coming up.

Speaker 3

Thank you. The next question also from Mikkel. 2023 target, we are halfway there. Are you more or less confident in meeting this now than what you were back in 2018?

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

First, the COVID created challenges. I think also that we proved within the report we just released that when we have ignition on all cylinders, this motor is working very well. We are above our financial target on the margin in this quarter. It's a sum, of course, good performance in all units, no vacation money in third quarter. It's kind of a Norwegian Nordic thing, NOK 15 million, maybe NOK 20 million effect that comes at every third quarter. Still, it shows that it's possible to do it. The biggest challenge is within Food that over a year did not meet our expectations on bottom line. To get to the bottom line target of 18% EBITA stable over a year, they need to improve. The other units are performing and are above that.

It boils down to the improved performance in Food, which we and the team is committed to deliver upon. There is a way to go to get there.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Espen. We have the last question for Stefan is from Mikkel. Stefan, what are your plans post TOMRA?

Stefan Ranstrand
President and CEO, TOMRA Group

Well, actually, thank you for the question. Presently, my focus is to support this transition. How long it takes, I don't know, but I can assess it can quickly go into a year. It will be very difficult to have any additional discussions in parallel to that. I'll just refrain from that. I would focus on one thing. That is TOMRA for now. I will reorient myself to see what do I aspire to do. I have no clear plans right now. I am single-minded. It's TOMRA for now.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Espen Gundersen
CFO, TOMRA Group

If that was the last question, I'll just add on that. It is, of course, regrettable that Stefan will leave us in the not too distant future. There is never a good time to leave. That said, everything must come to an end. Stefan has been with us for more than 11 years, and it's been a great journey. Stefan has led us from around NOK 3.5 billion- NOK 10 billion in revenues. We are on the dawn of a new era, and we have ambitions to go to NOK 20 billion and NOK 30 billion. At some time, there will need for a new person at the helm, and maybe this is the time for she or he to join in and also be a part of forming and planning and executing on this growth.

Because this is not next year, this is a five-year horizon and even 10-year horizon. All the things that we see in pipeline that we need to deliver upon. The opportunities are there, but we need to execute upon them. Maybe this is the time to get a new person on board also. As I said, regrettable, but I understand also Stefan's decision. Please rest assured that there is no controversy around this. The dialogue between management and management and the board is the dialogue or maybe it's the wrong word to use, harmony. It maybe gives the wrong impression. We have really transparent, trustworthy dialogues, constructive dialogues, exactly the way we want it to be, both between management and the board, and the board and between the management group. This is a way of life, things move on.

I'm happy that we can work with Stefan probably for maybe a year and having a planned succession, and looking forward to that. You will see us next quarter also. With that, I suggest we end the presentation.

Stefan Ranstrand
President and CEO, TOMRA Group

Thank you all for joining. Again, we are pleased with the quarter. I think given the situation with the COVID, I'm very proud about what we can demonstrate the capability in delivering sound numbers. Good to see that we can make a dividend payout, and we are on track to continue here. Thank you very much, and see you soon again.