Good morning, everyone. It's a real pleasure to welcome you all to Vår Energi's third quarter 2025 presentation results. The presentation today will be given by our CEO, Nick Walker, and our CFO, Carlo Santopadre. I will hand the word over to Nick before we open up for questions.
So thank you, Ida, and good morning to all. And thank you for joining us today for our third quarter 2025 results presentation. I'm pleased to report strong results for the quarter. We've delivered transformational growth ahead of schedule, and a pipeline of new projects has been progressed for long-term value creation. With our major projects complete, the company has de-risked and has a strong resilience to a lower-price environment. We also have significant flexibility, with the majority of our capital spend uncommitted to 2030, and we'll use this flexibility to optimize our investment program through this lower-price period. Vår Energi has never been in a stronger position to continue to deliver high-value and attractive shareholder returns. So now let us look at the highlights for the quarter. Our production milestones have been met ahead of schedule.
We delivered production of 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter, and the Jotun FPSO at the Balder field reached peak production ahead of expectations in September. We're adding around 180,000 barrels per day at peak from new projects in 2025, with seven out of nine projects on stream. We expect to average around 430,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. And the outlook for the company is de-risked with our key projects delivered. And we delivered solid financial performance, with CFFO post-tax in the quarter of $1.2 billion. We have a strong financial position with reduced net debt and $3.6 billion of available liquidity. We maintain our strong cost focus with reduced operating costs on track to be around $10 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
And our gas sales strategy continues to create value, with 18% of our volume sold in the third quarter at $90 per BOE. And with our portfolio of high-value early-phase projects, we're unlocking long-term future value creation. We will sustain production at 350,000-400,000 barrels per day towards 2030 and beyond, which will be achieved by delivering our portfolio of 30 early-phase projects, with 10 of these projects set to be sanctioned by year-end. And we increased our ownership in the Ekofisk previously produced fields project, adding high-value barrels at an attractive price. And lastly, we continue to provide predictable and attractive dividends. We confirm a dividend distribution for the third quarter of $300 million, which means we've paid stable or growing dividends for the last 15 quarters. And we reconfirm our dividend guidance of $1.2 billion for the full year, 2025, and also the same level for 2026.
And given our resilient financial outlook and strong level of liquidity, we're able to maintain this dividend guidance under any realistic price scenario. So now let us look at some of the details. Vår Energi, the third largest oil and gas producer in Norway, has a high-quality diversified asset base in all areas of the NCS, with interest in around 50% of all producing assets and a large exploration footprint. We've also a balanced commodity mix, with gas making up around 30% of our production volumes, making us one of the largest exporters of gas from Norway. This tremendous portfolio, which provides lots of optionality, is driving our long-term sustained production and value creation. And as you will see, we're continuing to step up the pace to realize the value from our portfolio.
And now, with our major projects complete and now ramped up to full production, we've delivered transformational growth ahead of schedule. We're set to produce around 430,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter this year, which you can see is double 2023 levels. We're also guiding approximately 400,000 barrels per day in 2026. And with our high-quality portfolio with significant upside, we can organically sustain production at 350,000-400,000 barrels per day towards 2030 and beyond. Now looking at 2025 production, where we're on track to meet around the midpoint of our full-year guidance range of 330,000-360,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Third quarter production, as you can see, came in at 370,000 per day, which was at the top end of our expectations due to the faster ramp-up to peak production from the Jotun FPSO.
We continue with excellent performance at our operators' assets, with strong production efficiency at 92% for the first nine months of the year, which is inclusive of planned turnarounds. The third quarter was impacted by around 15,000 barrels per day of reductions due to planned turnarounds, and entering the fourth quarter, all of our turnarounds are behind us for the year. Our current production potential is over 440,000 barrels per day, and this will grow towards the end of the year as new wells are brought on stream at Balder, Ringhorne, Grane, Njord, Halten East, and Sleipner, and so we expect to produce approximately 430,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, which means we're on track to meet around the midpoint of the production guidance range for the year, and as I said, we've de-risked the production outlook for the company.
Our transformational growth this year is driven by nine project startups, adding around 180,000 barrels per day of new volumes at peak. Seven of the nine projects are on stream and are performing as to expectations. The remaining two projects, Balder phase V and the Asgard Low Pressure Production Facilities, are both expected to come on stream towards the end of the year. This has been a pivotal year for the company for new project startups, and overall, we've delivered what we said we would do. Hence, the outlook for the company is de-risked, and we've never been in a stronger position. Turning now to our two major projects that are the main catalyst for delivering our transformational growth. Production through the Jotun FPSO, which started up in June, achieved peak production of 80,000 barrels per day gross ahead of plan in September.
The wells are performing on average as expected, and we've already achieved high production efficiency from the FPSO with low operating cost of around $5 per barrel. This project, together with phases V and VI, is developing gross reserves of 200 million barrels. Two phase V wells have been completed with results better than expectations, and a third well is currently drilling. All three wells will come on stream towards the end of the year. Phase VI, a fast-track development, is progressing and is on target to start up in the fourth quarter next year. And additionally, there are material further resource development opportunities in the Balder area, and we're progressing what we're calling our Balder Next project towards sanction. The Balder Next project consists of four elements. Firstly, decommissioning the Balder FPU.
It's about transferring selected FPU wells to the Jotun FPSO, accelerating production through de-bottlenecking the FPSO, and then drilling new production wells. And this rationalization of the facilities in the Balder area will drive significant OPEX and carbon emissions reductions. We will sanction the de-bottlenecking element of this project at the end of this year, which involves increasing the capacity of the FPSO gas compression and water handling systems, and this will be implemented in 2026. And this is a key enabler to decommission the Balder FPU. And we're progressing a plan to have a continuous infill well program starting from 2027, following completion of the phases V and the phase VI drilling programs. We've already committed to the subsea production equipment and will shortly commit to the flow lines required to make this happen.
The initial commitment will be for six multilateral wells, with the design to allow expansion up to a total of 15 wells. And so with the Jotun FPSO serving as a new area host, production from the Balder area is expected to remain at 70,000-80,000 barrels a day gross towards 2030. And if we now look at Johan Castberg, we see very strong performance, with the field producing at plateau levels of 220,000 barrels of oil per day gross, with Vår Energi's net share being around 66,000 barrels per day. Production efficiency is already stable at 95%, and production costs in the third quarter were less than $3 per barrel. The reserves and resource potential of the area is around 1 billion barrels, and the full development of this, we anticipate, will keep the facilities full towards 2030.
Drilling of the planned development wells will be complete at the end of 2026, and immediately following this, an infill well program is being planned, which is targeted to sanction at the end of this year. And this program will include the development of the recent Drivis Tubåen discovery. Additionally, the Isflak tie-back development is expected to also sanction at the end of 2025. So we see Johan Castberg as a key driver to sustain our production long-term. And now looking at operational performance, you can see that we're incrementally improving how we run our business. Overall, we have a good safety record with zero actual serious incidents so far in 2025. However, we've recently had too many near-miss incidents where we have a strong improvement focus. On carbon emissions intensity, we're top quartile in the industry globally, and our methane emissions continue at the near-zero level.
So we're already doing very well, but we want to decarbonize our operations further from three main levers. Firstly, electrification with Power from Shore. Secondly, portfolio optimization. And lastly, through energy management. From further assessment of the Halten and Snorre Power from Shore projects, these will be discontinued due to challenging economics. This will reduce our capital spend guidance by $500 million over the period to 2030. This shows our strong cost discipline. However, we'll continue to mature the Grane Energi project prior to possible project concept select in the early part of next year, where our focus is on creating a project with sound economics. And in addition to emissions reductions, Vår Energi aims to become carbon neutral in our net equity operational emissions by 2030 through removals in the voluntary carbon market.
And we continue to be recognized for our ESG leadership, with Sustainalytics ranking us as a top-rated company. This puts us in the top 15% of the global oil and gas industry. For production efficiency, our operated assets, as you can see, have a strong improving trend, which was 92% in the first nine months of the year and ahead of our target. On production costs, we achieved $10.6 per barrel in the third quarter. And for the full year, we expect to be at the lower end of the guidance range of $11-$12 per barrel. This performance is driven by reduced costs. And looking forward, we're on track to reduce production costs to around $10 per barrel in the fourth quarter this year, and we'll target to sustain at this level long-term. And I think these elements go hand in hand.
Strong safety and environmental focus drives good operational discipline, creating significant value. And you've seen this chart before. Vår Energi has an amazing portfolio with lots of optionality and growth opportunities. And our 2P reserves, you can see, stand at 1.2 billion barrels. This is either in production or under development. But we are much more than that. We have 2C contingent resources of around 900 million barrels. And we're moving forward around 30 early-phase projects accounting for 650 million barrels of this. And we also have an exciting exploration portfolio of around 1 billion barrels of net risk resources, where we expect to drill out about 50% over the next four years. And so putting this together, we have around 3 billion barrels of resource potential, but with 60% yet to be developed. I repeat, that 60% is yet to be developed.
And that is how we will organically sustain production long-term. And we're working at pace to create value from this opportunity. So looking now at how we will do that, we have a flexible and resilient portfolio of around 30 early-phase projects that we are progressing towards development. Delivering on this program will achieve our production target of 350,000-400,000 barrels per day towards 2030. And these are mostly subsea tie-backs to existing infrastructure with low cost, short time to market, and strong economics. And you can see average breakevens of around $35 per barrel. And we've built significant momentum. We've four projects sanctioned so far this year, and we expect to sanction in total 10 projects by year-end.
As we announced a few weeks ago, we've increased our ownership in the Ekofisk previously produced fields project, adding high-value barrels from 2028 and at attractive purchase price of below $4 per barrel. This transaction does not close until the project is sanctioned, which is expected at the end of the year, and with around 65% of our capital spend to 2030 uncommitted, we have significant flexibility to optimize our investment program through the current lower price period, and now turning to our exploration program, where we have a leading track record. Since 2019, we've added around 300 million barrels of contingent resources with a success rate of 50% and a finding cost of less than $1 per barrel post-tax. Over 70% of these volumes are already in production or in the development process, demonstrating we are turning discoveries into value.
This success has continued with five commercial discoveries so far this year, adding 40-70 million barrels of net resources. As we announced earlier in the year, we continue to build on the Goliat Ridge success in the Barents Sea, where we're the operator with a material 65% interest. With estimated gross discovered plus prospective resources above 200 million barrels, the Goliat Ridge is potentially as big as the original Goliat development. To assess this exciting opportunity, we're currently drilling a two-well appraisal program where we'll see results before the end of the year. We're then able to think about how we go forward with a tie-back development to Goliat, the Goliat FPSO, where there's plenty of available capacity.
And the Venus discovery is also significant, with potential to hold gross recoverable resources of up to 100 million barrels of oil equivalent, and where Vår Energi is again the operator with a material 75% interest. We're progressing plans to appraise Venus in 2026. And we've drilled three successful infrastructure-led exploration wells this year in the Johan Castberg, Fram, and Åsgard areas. These have short time to development, and the Åsgard area well is already in production, contributing over 6,000 barrels per day net. This is good value creation. So we're making significant progress, maturing our upside resource potential into value through committing to new projects and making new commercial discoveries. So that rounds off my operational update, and I'll now hand over to Carlo to review the financials. Thank you.
Thank you, Nick, and good morning to all.
I would like to start by summarizing the key financial highlights of the third quarter. We have achieved robust realized price compared to spot, with a weighted average price of $68 per BOE in the quarter. We generated strong revenues on the back of transformational production in the quarter and strong operating cash flow after tax of $1.2 billion. We maintain a strong and resilient balance sheet, reducing net debt and increasing available liquidity at $3.6 billion. The leverage ratio at 0.9 net debt to EBITDA is flat from previous quarter, remaining well below our target. We confirm the third quarter dividend of $300 million, and we are showing confidence in our business planning to pay the same level for the remaining of 2025 and 2026. In summary, we have a strong and resilient financial position, and we're successfully progressing in what is a transformational year for Vår Energi.
I'll now go into more details of our third quarter financial performance. We obtained robust pricing for our products in the quarter, both relative to spot and to our peers. In the quarter, we generated more than $2.1 million of revenues, up compared to the previous quarter, driven by production increase. The realized oil price in the quarter was $69 per BOE. The realized gas price was $72 per BOE, $6 above spot pricing as a result of fixed price contracts and flexible gas sales agreement, allowing for optimization of index. Starting 1st of October, we have locked in around 15% of volumes, with a pricing at around $78 per BOE until third quarter 2026. We continue to have a robust sales portfolio with access to several markets, and we will have flexibility in the contracts to decide the split between month ahead, day ahead, and fixed contracts.
I would like also to mention that our oil production is fully hedged on a post-tax basis for the remaining of 2025, with a monthly put options at a strike price of $50 per BOE. Vår Energi generated solid cash flow in the quarter. Cash flow from operations after tax in the quarter was $1.2 billion, an increase from the previous quarter, mainly due to higher production and lower OPEX. Our CAPEX for the quarter, including exploration, was $726 million, while Balder X and Johan Castberg continues to be the largest contributor of the total spent. The 2025 development CAPEX is expected to be in the upper end of the $2.3-$2.5 billion guidance. Our resilient and strong liquidity position continued to improve in the quarter. Here we see the development of our cash position from Q2 2025 to the end of Q3 2025.
We generated approximately $1.8 billion in CFFO before tax and working capital movements. We paid taxes in the quarter, amounting to around $530 million. We had a cash outflow of $740 million in investment in our high-value growth projects. We distributed, as planned, $300 million in dividends related to the second quarter 2025. In summary, we have a solid liquidity position and a diversified long-term capital structure aligned with our business needs. At the end of the quarter, we have a cash balance of $840 million and an overall liquidity of around $3.6 billion. Earlier in 2025, we strengthened our financial position through the successful refinancing of credit facilities and issuance of senior notes. By doing that, we reduced the cost of debt, increased our available liquidity, extended the maturity profile, and strengthened our core bank group.
Our leverage ratio, net interest bearing debt on EBITDAX, ended at 0.9, which is flat from the previous quarter, but continues to be well below our over-the-cycle target of below 1.3 and expects to reduce this further. Our debt portfolio is well diversified, with a weighted average time to maturity of five years when excluding the 60-year hybrid. This is supporting the execution of our growth strategy towards 2030 and beyond. We have a BAA3 rating from Moody's and a BBB rating from Standard & Poor's, both with a stable outlook, and we are committed to maintain our investment-grade rating. Our strong financial position and our resilient flexible project portfolio lay a solid foundation for continued material shareholder distribution and growth, and it is a unique investment proposition that Vår Energi offers.
Now let's look at the tax guidance for 2025 estimated profits, where half is paid this year and half will be paid the next year. Note that from third quarter this year, we went from paying six installments per year to 10 installments per year. The third quarter, we paid NOK 5.4 billion in cash taxes. For the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect to pay around NOK 8 billion. We have included a tax sensitivity for the first half of 2026, which is giving the cash tax estimates a different price scenario, where the middle case is giving around $1.6 billion, while the sensitivity is between $1 and $2.1 billion, according to the indicated price ranges. Vår Energi has a strong track record of delivering value to our shareholders. Since the IPO, we have paid more than $4.1 billion in dividend, maintaining stable payments over the last 15 quarters.
With transformative growth delivered in the third quarter of 2025, strong financials, a solid operational outlook with a resilient and flexible project portfolio, we can continue to support attractive and predictable dividends going forward. On the back of this, I'm pleased to confirm a dividend of $300 million for the third quarter and a total dividend distribution of $1.2 billion for the full year 2025 and $1.2 billion for the full year 2026. Finally, I will summarize our full year 2025 and long-term guidance. For 2025, our production guidance is 330,000-360,000 barrels per day, reaching around 430,000 barrels per day by Q4 2025. We expect to reach around the midpoint of the guidance for the full year. We will maintain approximately 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, and further we will sustain 350,000-400,000 barrels per day until 2030.
2025 production cost is expected to come at $11-$12 per barrel, down to around $10 per barrel by Q4 as we ramp up production. CAPEX is estimated to be in the upper range of our $2.3-$2.5 billion guidance in 2025. Going forward, we are expecting to be in the range of $2-$2.5 billion thereafter. Exploration expenses and ABEX will be in the range of $200-$300 million and $150 million, respectively, in the medium to long term. For this year
With that, I hand it back to Nick for concluding remarks. Thank you.
Well, thank you, Carlo. And I've just one final slide to summarize. Our production milestones have been met ahead of schedule, and with our major projects now complete, we've de-risked the company. In the quarter, we delivered solid financial results, and the company is resilient with significant flexibility to navigate through this lower price period. We're making good progress on our pipeline of new projects that will provide long-term value creation. And on the back of this strong performance, we continue to provide predictable and attractive dividends. So we're delivering on our strategy for growth and value creation, and Vår Energi has never been in such a strong position. These are our third quarter 2025 results and other reasons to be invested in Vår Energi. I'd like to thank you for your time.
We would now like to open up for your questions. Thank you.
Thank you, Daniel.
Thank you. So, as a reminder, if you would, sorry, go ahead.
Yeah, we'll hand it over to the operator. Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question today, please press Star 1 on your telephone keypad. And if you change your mind and want to withdraw your question, please press Star 2. And please ensure your lines are unmuted locally as you'll be prompted when to ask your question. Our first question today comes from a line of Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from SB1M. Please go ahead.
Good morning.
Thanks for taking my question, Sam. Congrats on the strong report. A few questions for me.
First, on the liftings and sales for Q3, as far as I understand, you delivered one Snøhvit cargo more than what you said in your operations update up there. I just wondered, is that something that we should expect to be reversed in Q4, meaning that we should model that under lift for Q4? So that's the first question. Second question is on production costs. You reported very low production costs for third quarter, and it was down around $100 million, quote unquote. I just want to understand what drives that reduction. And third and final question there is on production. You guided for 430,000 barrels per day in Q4. I just wondered, what has the production been this far in the quarter? Thank you.
Good. I think maybe Carlo will take the first question. Teodor, good morning to you, and then I'll cover off the latter two. So, yeah.
Hi, Marin. Morning to you. When it comes to the question you raised, yes, we have done a small change compared to the training update, and you don't have to expect this cargo to be reversed in Q4. Simply through the closing process, the bill of lading that was actually realized on the very last day of September was considered, and it was updated as soon as we completed our closing process. As simple as that.
Good, and I think the number is very small anyway, and so, on production costs, I mean, we've set out for some time that our production costs are going to come down, and there's two components to this. One is that we're bringing some new volumes in, which have, relatively speaking, low costs.
I mean, I quoted two of those, which is Balder and Johan Castberg, but Johan Castberg below three and Balder around five, so obviously that makes the unit production costs much better, and then we said we are focusing on costs as a company, and where we are today, we're going to come in at the bottom end of the range of 11-12 for the full year, and all of that is driven by cost reductions across our portfolio, and I think, so 10.6 in Q3, and we expect to be around 10 in Q4, and we believe we can sustain this longer term. We're also working on things to be able to perhaps do a bit better than that too, so there's a big focus on achieving this and sustaining this, and I think I'm very pleased that we've got to where we are.
The $100 million that you talked to, this is about moving from a period where we have turnarounds, planned turnarounds in the summer period, to a period where we have fewer of them. And so that's a sort of natural seasonal change, I think, that you would expect. So hopefully that gives you enough color, Theodore, to understand that. And then on the production outlook, we announced in September that we had achieved 400,000 barrel a day milestone. We've been saying for some time that we can average around 430 in Q4. Where we sit today, our production potential is around 440,000 barrels a day, and we've been up towards those levels. That's with everything running.
And we're going to bring on, and I listed quite a number of them when I spoke, as quite a few new wells between now and the end of the year, and there's a decent amount of volume to come with that. So we will see production grow, potential grow from these levels through the quarter. And so we're confident of being able to deliver around, on average, about 430 and probably exit the quarter above that level when we end the year. So that's sort of how we look at the production volumes, Theodore. Hopefully that answers the questions.
Yeah, that's clear. Thank you.
The second question today comes from a line of Tianhong Bi from Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi, morning, guys. I've got a few questions, please. The first one, your.
We seem to have lost connection, Tianhong Bi.
So the next question today comes from a line of Mark Wilson from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question. Really good delivery, and congratulations on getting these projects to this point. My question, Nick and Carlo, is on those realistic oil prices for 2026 and the $1.2 billion dividend. And it's really good to see that confidence in returns for the coming year, considering there are fears over the commodity price. Your production mix is or has more oil now with Balder and Castberg on stream. So could you speak to, let's say, the lower range of oil prices for the coming year that would maintain that dividend? Thank you.
Mark, we're not going to provide guidance on pricing, but the way we look at this, if you think about it, and we've had transformational production growth this year.
We set out to bring on nine new projects, major undertaking. Seven of those are online, and the last two will come online at the end of the year, so we see a significant growth in production, and we exit this year very strong, and we've guided around 400,000 barrels per day next year, and I'm very confident we're going to be able to deliver that, so that's a significant step in production, and at the same time, our capital spend is dropping off, and we have a lot of flexibility in the business as we look forward, so we've set out that between now and 2030, 65% of our capital future expected capital spend is uncommitted, and we have many choices to either slow it down, speed it up, to work to make the projects better, and we will use that flexibility.
As a company, we're also free cash flow break-even on average between now and 2030 at around $40 a barrel. And I think that shows the resilience of our company. New projects, they need to meet $35 break-even, and infill wells, $30 break-even, and we're able to maintain those metrics. And so we have a very resilient, robust, flexible business. We also have significant liquidity at $3.6 billion of available liquidity. And so when you look at it, we've got flexibility and resilience as a company. And then if you look at the oil price range, yes, OPEC+ has announced it's going to produce more volumes. What we also see is that maybe OPEC+, not all the members can produce all the volumes that they perhaps say they've got.
And secondly, I think when you look forward, the world needs a lot of oil, and it needs to develop a lot of oil. It needs to spend a lot of capital to maintain the volumes. So yes, we have a shorter-term period, maybe of weaker prices, but I'm very positive about the medium to longer-term outlook for oil prices because I think a lot of investment is required. And if you just look at the U.S. business, 50% of U.S. production today came from wells drilled in the last two years. And that declines extremely quickly. And at these prices, the U.S.'s unconventional business is largely uneconomic. So I think we'll see a slowdown in investment, and some of that adjustment will happen very quickly.
And so our view is that there is long-term the prices, we have a shorter-term lower price, but longer-term, we see a good outlook for oil prices. And as a company, we're resilient to work through this. Thank you for that. If I may ask a follow-up on that, and I love the point about the U.S. new wells, by the way. Could I just ask on the leverage, within all that discussion, the leverage target of 1.3 times or to be below that, should we use that if we're predicting forward as being a potential point that you might maintain dividends to? Yes, actually, when it comes to leverage, it's probably what I was about to add. Our starting point is 0.9, is well within our 1.3. And we are committed to maintain an investment-grade balance sheet that has been saved a lot of time.
So the whole point is that 1.3 is our target. We don't want to go above that. But given our starting point, which is 0.9, and if you model it, you will see that it's very, very resilient to lower price scenarios. So our starting point gives us the confidence that we will not be in the condition to push the leverage close or higher than our target, while still being able to sustain 2026.
Thank you very much. I'll hand it over. That's good enough for me.
Thanks, Mark.
Let us go back to Tianhong Bi from Citi. Tianhong Bi, please go ahead. Morning, guys. Can you hear me okay? Hi, guys.
Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. I've got a couple, please.
The first one, you're still guiding for 10 project FIDs in 2025, but that's down from the 13 you flagged at 2Q, with now 3 being pushed to 2026. Can you just clarify whether that's purely sequencing or if that reflects a more cautious spending stance given the lower price environment, and how should we think about the potential for further slippage? The second one relates to Goliat Gas. So the concept selection for gas export solution was cleared in 2023 with the original FID targeted in second half 2024, but that's now been pushed again. Can you just clarify what the current timing assumptions are and what the key remaining gating items are? So just, yeah, what is holding up the FID at this stage?
The third one relates to your 2025 exploration program, which has delivered 40-60 million barrels net so far this year, with another seven wells to drill. Does this exploration success yet to take where you need to be in terms of your resource replacement target? Yeah, that's my question. Thanks so much.
Good. I think good questions. In terms of the project sanctions, we guided at our CMU that we would sanction around eight projects this year. And we've been working on a number of these projects, and we're now confident that we're going to sanction 10 of them by the end of this year. We have a number that might sanction in the early part of next year, and we're not guided what those are going to be yet.
So I think we've more than met what we set out to do as a company in terms of the projects that we've got that we're moving forward. In terms of Goliat Gas, it's a good question. I mean, we have a commitment to develop the gas in the field, and I think there's about 100 million BOEs of resource there. And the way to do this is to produce it through the Snøhvit facilities. But of course, they're full until 2045, but there may be periods of time where they're not full. And so we're working up a commercial arrangement where we can put it through Snøhvit. Also, developing the gas releases more oil production, so that's part of the story here about making this project economic. And if we progress with the Goliat Ridge development, we will need to do something with the gas.
And it's cheaper to export it than to reinject it. So there's a number of motivations for this. We're in the middle of commercial negotiations with the Snøhvit license at the moment, and our target is to sanction this project in the early part of next year. It's quite simple, really. It's basically a short pipeline to the pipeline for the Snøhvit facilities and a riser to Goliat, and it creates and unlocks a lot of opportunity. So I'm hopeful that we can move that forward. And in terms of our exploration success, we'd always like more. But I think so far it's a good outturn this year, and we've got some exciting wells to come, particularly the wells we're drilling in the Goliat Ridge and I think some other things that we have.
So we've got a high-impact well of Vikingskipet in the Barents Sea, and I'm actually quite like the Prince of Dip in Ringhorne because that could unlock quite a few things, and it can be put straight onto production because it's through the platform. And so we got a number of wells, and let's see where we are at the end of the year. But overall, on a resource replacement ratio this year, I think we're in a good place on a 2P basis to be above 100% reserve replacement ratio this year. It's a bit early to give you some numbers, but we're going to be somewhat above that, I think, when we get to report the numbers in the early part of next year. So hopefully that answers your questions.
Yeah, thanks very much. Very quick. Is it possible to just add one more question in?
Go ahead.
Yeah. So perhaps this question is more for Eni , but also interested in your view as well because last week they talked about boosting liquidity in Ithaca and its other ENP satellites by selling down more shares. So I just wonder if there's any similar discussions or consideration for Vår as well. Thank you.
I think this is a question you need to direct to our major shareholder. It's theirs. But I think they've made it clear that they're a long-term industrial holder of the company. They've made it clear on a number of times. But this is a question you have to direct to them.
Sure. Thank you. Thank you so much.
As a reminder, if you would like to join the queue for questions, please press star one on your keypads. The next question comes from the line of Victoria McCulloch from RBC. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Good morning. Thanks very much. A couple more from me. So just firstly on Balder, you highlighted the phase five startup in Q4. Can you just remind us the phasing and the number of wells with phase five and then subsequently what's the timing expected for adding phase six in? And then second question, just following up on the highlight of the project portfolio, is there any risk of these slipping into next year? Thanks very much.
Okay. Good morning, Victoria. Good questions. And Balder, phase five. So that's six wells is in the plan there, and that uses all the remaining subsea well slots in the facilities that we've developed with Balder, Jotun FPSO. Got quite a number of approvals coming in the latter part of the year to move this forward. So I think we're in good shape to move those forward.
Hopefully that answers your questions, Victoria.
Thanks very much. That's really helpful. Can I just do one follow-up on Balder? I noted you talked about in your comments about the retirement of the FPU on Balder and that only certain wells will then be transferred over to the Jotun FPSO. I guess, is anything being less stranded? What sort of production do you think then, looking at that in our potentially 2028-2029 timeline, is that sort of a production then that's going to drop off, so to speak?
No. I mean, this is what we've considered into the whole thing, and of course, we don't want to leave reserves in the ground. So some of the wells are of a scale and still productivity that you would want to transfer them across. And some are quite high water cut and nearing end of sort of economic usefulness.
So in some of those, we're going to redrill them because they've been lower in the structure. So we have the opportunity to redrill and move the well updip and recover more oil. And so it's a bit of both. So we will not be losing reserves through this whole process. We'll be actually adding quite a lot of resource.
Thanks very much.
Good.
The next question comes from a line of Naisheng Cui from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two on calls, if that's okay. So the first one is on unit production costs. I think Vår did $10.6 this quarter, which is really good. And with your production volume growing significantly into Q4, do you feel that your $10 per barrel guidance is quite conservative?
My second question is, I wonder if you can give us an update on the $500 million cost saving plan, especially given that you increased your exploration CAPEX a little bit, but that may mean you need to find extra savings from somewhere else. Thanks.
Good. And good. Thanks for the good questions. On unit production costs, yes, 10.6 in Q3, which is very good, as I said. We guided 11-12 for the year, and we expect to be around 11 at the end of the year. Production being flat, this is all about cost reductions, and there's two aspects, as I pointed out earlier. This is about the lower unit cost production from the new barrels that we're bringing in, but it's also about cost reductions.
And I have to say, yes, we've guided approximately $10, but I think there is a case that we could become a bit lower than that. So something to look out for when we get to our Q4 results. And then on the $500 million, look, we set out that we were going to use some of our flexibility. If you look forward between now and 2030, we have around 65% of our future capital uncommitted. And depending on how this price environment continues, we will use some of that flexibility. But we have a big opportunity to optimize our portfolio, to maintain the production outlook, to reduce the cost base, and to manage through this cycle. And I think we're not stuck with some massive projects that you have to invest into. We have lots of choices and flexibility, and we will use that.
And we guided that we would take $500 million out of 2025 and 2026, and we will update you on what our 2026 capital program and spend program is going to be at our capital markets update in February. Another good example of this is, in my speaking notes, I talked about the fact that we are discontinuing the electrification projects at Snorre, Halten. That will take out $500 million out of our future capital program between now and 2030. So that's a component. So there's lots of aspects to this, and I can't guide on a specific item because there's many, many things that make this up.
But we're focused on cost discipline, delivering what we say we're going to do, delivering our production, driving down operating costs, and using the flexibility in the company to make sure that we're robust and can meet all of the objectives that we've set out. Probably.
Thank you. That's very helpful.
I just wanted to add that when it comes to the $ 500 million cost saving program, if you remember, this is mostly on 2026. So 2025 was actually marginally impacted by it, mostly in 2026. So there's like overspent, for example, you refer to the exploration. It's not really impacting that opportunity for containing cost because it's mostly on 2026.
Understand. Thank you.
The next question comes from a line of John Olaisen from ABG. ABG, sorry. Please go ahead. No problem.
Thank you.
Thank you for taking my question. Two questions, if I may.
Firstly, if the Jotun FPSO is at peak production capacity now, I just wonder how is it going to be if there's going to be space for the new wells from Balder 5? Is depletion so strong in a month or two, or is it going to be produced at one of the other two facilities? And maybe if you could add on that, what is the underlying depletion at Balder? And my second question is regarding the free cash flow breakeven. Is it possible to say what is the free cash flow breakeven for Vår Energi in 2026 before and after dividends, please?
So in terms of I'll take the first question, and Carlo can deal with the second one. And good morning, John. Balder, first of all, these wells are quite peaky.
So they have a long life, but they decline from peak rate quite quickly because we're quite a thin oil column, and we get water quite quickly. So today we're producing 80,000 barrels a day gross, and our share is 90%. And if we are going to sustain production through Jotun FPSO, we have to continually add wells over time to be able to sustain that. And so that's what and as we bring new wells on, we can optimize the production through the facility. We're also working to see whether we can get more through it. That's something to think about also in time, both on oil production and also when we debottleneck to improve the gas handling capacity and the water handling capacity. So it's about sustaining production here long term is about continuing to drill. And there's loads of subsurface opportunity.
And that's what we're going to do. Phase five is the first step. Phase six is the next piece. And then Balder Next will bring. We're going to create the opportunity for up to 15 wells. And then there's many other opportunities in the area as well. So I think that's the way to look at this. And then Carlo, do you want to address the other question?
In terms of the breakeven for 2026, you know that we guided our breakeven at $40 for the cycle for 2026-2030. If you look at 2026 only, you will see that we already guided 2026 will be approximately 400,000 barrels per day in production. And the CAPEX guidance we gave for the entire period is between 2 to 2.5.
So the breakeven you can expect in 2026 is actually in this range of $40 because it's actually the year where production will be at 400, not just the range 350-400.
Okay. So $40
before dividends and after dividends in 26?
We've not guided that. We don't guide that.
And sorry, Nick, the underlying depletion rate at Balder, is it possible to give a range or some numbers on that?
I'm guessing it's about 10%-15%, but it depends a little bit. I mean, we've got a lot of new wells at the moment, so you don't see it quite that way. We're limited, actually, on the we've got more well capacity than we have production facilities capacity, so it's not quite at that point yet. All right.
So you can confirm that the three new production wells, the ones going to be set in production from Balder 5, is going to be hooked up and produced from the Jotun FPSO?
Yes, they will. I mean, we're not drilling any more wells to hook up to the Balder FPU. All future wells will be drilled and connected to the Balder FPSO. And the point about our Balder Next project is actually to decommission the Balder FPU, which reduces our operating cost by around $130 million per annum gross and significant reduction in annual CO2 amounts. So we're going to replumb some of the good wells from Balder FPU into the FPSO.
All right.
Thanks for the questions.
Thank you.
Thank you. Good questions.
Thank you. Thank you.
We currently have no questions coming through in the queue.
So as a final reminder, if you'd like to ask a question or a follow-up question, please press star one on your keypad. The next question comes from a line of Alejandra Magana from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. You've sanctioned four of the 30 early phase projects in the pipeline and expect around 10 by year-end. You've given some detail on Fram Sør and Balder Phase VI with Fram Sør more of a 2029 story and Balder Phase VI starting up by the end of 2026. Can you just add a bit more color on how the remaining 2025 sanctions are expected to line up in terms of timing and sequencing? And then my second question, can you just expand a bit on Goliat Ridge? You've called it a fast track project.
How quickly do you think you can move to FID once the appraisal wells are in, and what needs to line up first?
Okay. I can go through a few of the dates. I don't have them all in my head, but as I say, four projects sanctioned this year. We are expecting to sanction six by the end of the year. And I'll give you a few examples, and I did in my speaking notes a little bit. So up in the Johan Castberg area, we're going to sanction an infill drilling program. That'll start drilling wells immediately following the ongoing development program being complete at the end of next year. So it'll start from 2027. That'll include drilling an exploration discovery that was made in the area this year. And we're also going to sanction the Isflak tieback development at the end of this year.
I think that probably comes in line on 2028, but I couldn't wait up to check that. And then the Ekofisk previously produced fields project, which is quite a big one. That will, now that we have increased our working interest in that, that's going to sanction at the end of this year, and we'll start giving production volumes in 2028. Balder Next. There's four components to this, as I set out. The first component we will sanction at the end of this year, which is debottlenecking the FPSO. This is to give more capacity or gas handling, water handling capacity through the facility to allow us to get more volumes through it. And this will be implemented during the summer next year. So there's some shorter-term things, and there's some longer-term things in the mix.
The whole aim is what we're trying to do with the 30 projects is optimize the delivery of them to maximize the production outlook for the company and sustain 350,000-400,000 barrels a day, and so just delivering on these 30 projects will deliver 350,000 barrels a day towards 2030. Goliat Ridge, where we're at on this is we've made three discoveries there already. We set out, and this is quite a big opportunity. It's potentially over 200 million barrels. It's just a few kilometers away from the Goliat FPSO, and so it would be developed as a tieback into Goliat FPSO. It's the same fluids and everything, so it's very simple in that respect. What we're doing at the moment is we set out that we're going to drill two appraisal wells.
We've started the first one, and we will drill those two between now and the end of the year. And so we will have quite a lot more subsurface data. The other aspect here is one of the reasons this hasn't been drilled is you can't see it on the existing seismic. So in the summer, we shot a new 3D seismic survey over this. The previous version was 25 years old. So hopefully, new technology will mean that we can look and see the reservoir much better, and I'm confident that that will do. And so we will have a lot of subsurface information in our hands at the end of this year. And then we can start to think about how we move forward a development program here. But we can fast track this if it's the right thing to do.
We can move it forward very quickly, just as we're doing projects in the Balder area and in the Johan Castberg area. And so let's see where we are at the end of the year, and then we can start to think about the timing for developing this. Hopefully, that answers your questions.
Yes. Thank you.
There are no further questions from a phone line. So handing back over to the speaker room to answer two questions in writing.
Thank you. I've got a question here from Matt Smith of Bank of America.
Last quarter, you discussed CAPEX flexibility and the opportunity to rework and improve projects. Two questions. Are you considering further leveraging this CAPEX flexibility in 2026? And secondly, are you seeing supply chain pricing as conducive to improving project economics? Thank you.
Yes. Good question, Matt. So I think, yes, we are using the flexibility.
We're using the flexibility in a number of ways. First of all, we're very disciplined about making sure we do projects that create value. And the metrics we've set out, below $35 breakeven and rates of return above 25%. And we're going to be really disciplined about making sure we do that because if we do projects that look like that, we're going to make money in the long term. And so sometimes the projects need to be reworked. And it's not just about the cost base. It's also about the scope of the project. So we're doing both of these things. And sometimes we move a project forward quickly, and we say, "Well, we need to reset a bit and go around it again," both on the cost base and on the scope of work. And we're having quite a lot of success at doing that.
And our drive here really is to pick up the pace, which I think we've developed some momentum here, and be willing to move things forward quickly, but recognize where we need to rework something and recycle it a bit. And there's a few projects we've done already that's created such success. We slowed down our Johan Castberg area projects a bit, and we've been able to improve those significantly, both from reducing costs and improving the project. So that's how we will address this. And for sure, we're going to use the market if it offers opportunities for us. So hopefully, that answers your question, Matt. And the second one, either?
We have another question here in terms of hedging policy. You've hedged 100% of your crude oil production after tax for Q4 with put options at $50.
Will you continue to hedge against lower crude prices in 2026 as well?
Yeah. As we said, we're not continuing for 2026. As we speak, we don't have this program in place. We are monitoring the market, of course, to see whether there is an opportunity. But what we've done is basically a risk-benefit balance analysis. And we saw that the company, the way it is now, is very different from what it was a few years ago. Production has increased a lot. The company is fully risked. So as we speak, we don't have any program in place for 2026.
Thank you. And one last question on operating cost. What are the key factors that give you confidence in maintaining this $10 per BOE cost level on a sustainable basis going forward beyond Q4 this year? Thank you.
And it's a good question. So it's about two things.
It's about sustaining production. So if we sustain high production through our facilities, then we can sustain these lower costs. And secondly, it's about being disciplined about the cost base. And I still think, as a company, we've got quite a lot of opportunities to reduce operating costs. And I'll give you one example. In the Balder area, we're going to decommission the Balder FPU in 2028. That represents $130 million gross per annum operating cost, which we will take out of it, and we have 90% of it. So that is a good example where we can take cost out of our cost base and still maintain production at the same levels. And we'll continue to work both sides of that equation. And the way we project is we can see ourselves around $10 long term. Great.
Thank you. That concludes the presentation and Q&A.
Thank you all for dialing in. Wish you a good rest of the day.