Good afternoon, everyone. It's a pleasure to welcome you all to Vår Energi's 2026 Capital Markets Update and presentation of our fourth quarter 2025 results. It's great to see so many people here in the room and also joining us on the webcast. 2025 has been a transformational year for the company, and today we will present an updated plan for how we will be delivering higher production and more value for longer, with material cash flow generation and attractive dividends. Our CEO, Nick Walker, will lead the way, followed by presentations held by several members of our leadership team. In addition to Nick, Torger , Carlo, and Ellen, we will have our Head of Projects, Oddgeir Dalane, that will walk us through our high-value project portfolio, and our Head of Exploration, Luca Dragonetti, who will take us through how we will continue to deliver value through our exploration activities.
Following the presentations, we will open up for questions. With that, I'd like to invite Nick to the stage.
Thank you, Ida, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Vår Energi's 2026 Capital Markets Update, together with a review of our full- year 2025 results. It's really great to see you all here again in Oslo, and also a warm welcome to all of you who are joining us online. I'm pleased to report that we delivered on our plan for transformational growth in 2025, delivering record-high production, strong financial performance, and significant value creation. I'm excited for the outlook for Vår Energi. We have fantastic assets, a tremendous team, and you'll see today that we have strong momentum improving the outlook for the company, as we say, to create more value for longer. There are four key messages we want to get across today. Firstly, we significantly de-risk the company with our major projects now complete, as you can see in this beautiful photograph today.
Vår Energi has never been in a stronger position. Secondly, we will deliver higher production for longer, with more growth opportunities. Thirdly, we're incrementally improving for increased resilience and flexibility. Finally, we have higher value creation, ensuring long-term attractive shareholder returns. I think these are the drivers for significant value creation and are the themes that will run through everything that we talk about today. First, I want to provide some context to the business environment, as I think it informs how we see our strategy and the decisions that we make every day for the future of the company. I think it's incredible that world population has doubled over my lifetime from 4 billion to 8 billion people. At the same time, you can see that global energy demand has tripled and will continue to grow as the developing world wants the same living standards that we all enjoy.
This continued energy growth is despite significant improvements in energy efficiency, and it's going to be interesting to see the impact of AI and data centers and what that will have on the future demand for energy. Of course, affordable and reliable energy is vital for economic growth and prosperity. All credible outlooks show oil and gas will be required for decades, in addition to an increased share of renewable energy. In reality, what is happening is energy addition. It's not either/or. The world needs both hydrocarbons and renewable energy sources. To provide affordable and reliable energy to all and meet the demand for gas, which is a critical transition fuel, it's clear that the world needs significant new investments in oil and gas to offset declines, as you can see on the chart. This requires long-term investment horizons.
We're seeing increased volatility and significant uncertainties in the world, and this can lead to a lower-for-longer price scenario. We need to take this into account as we make investment decisions for Vår Energi. To be able to invest through the cycles requires a focus on high-quality, low break-even projects, and you'll see that Vår Energi is doing just that. Our view is that in any scenario, oil and gas will be essential for world energy supply for decades, and those that can produce with low break-even prices and with as little emissions as possible will have competitive advantage. As many of you have heard me say before, I believe that Norway is one of the best places to invest in oil and gas, and the reasons for this are really very clear. It's low cost, it's low emissions.
In fact, it's world-leading, and that is why Norway should be the last oil and gas region to be shut in. There are large remaining resources with continued access to new acreage. There have been long-term, reliable framework conditions and a supportive fiscal regime, and the NCS is a key supplier of energy to Europe. Oil and gas is key to Norway as a major source of industrial activity and employment across the country. This has all been driven by long-term government and public support for the industry, and our assessment is this support is strengthening. All of these factors have resulted in strong competitive advantage for Norway. It attracts the investment needed to develop the shelf and because Norway is seen as a reliable producer with low emissions. In this context, our strategy is really very simple.
It's also consistent, and you'll see this is the same slide we've used for a few years. Our strategy is to ensure growth and value creation for all stakeholders over time. It's to be a pure-play Norwegian oil and gas company for the reasons that I've set out, and it's to be a reliable and secure supplier of affordable energy to Europe. Finally, it's to be safe and responsible about how we conduct our business. We're delivering on our strategy and targets, as we will demonstrate today. As you can see here, the company has a strong track record of value creation, incrementally improving how we perform. From 2018, when the company was established, we've increased production by almost 2.5x , building the third-largest producer on the NCS. It's quite possible that this quarter we'll become the second-largest producer.
We've significantly improved efficiency and costs while at the same time materially growing reserves and resources. This is combining to deliver strong financials and returns. You can see we achieved a total shareholder return since the IPO four years ago of 115%. As we will show today, we continue to improve the outlook for the company, creating material value for longer. We continue to transform as a company to deliver more value and faster, incrementally improving every day to realize the opportunities in our portfolio. This is what I think about every morning when I wake up: how do we make it better and better? It's all about harnessing the entrepreneurial energy in the company where everyone can make a difference and contribute to value creation. Our heritage means we have deep and unique NCS expertise, and we are leveraging this.
I think technology is also key, but it's also about implementing to create value. Of course, we don't deliver alone. We rely on partnerships and collaboration, our license partners, in particular Equinor, and key suppliers among the best in their fields to help us deliver. We also draw on the capabilities and expertise of our major shareholder, Eni. As much of our value will be delivered through subsea tiebacks, we've established our subsea project factory approach. More on that later. This is how we will create value, and you'll see many examples of this from my colleagues today. Safe and responsible operations are key to our license to operate, and we have high ambition to be the safest operator. I think overall we've got good safety and environmental trend from our operations.
You can see in 2025 we had zero actual serious incidents, material process safety events, and accidental spills to sea. However, we're continuing to have too many low-level incidents, which is a strong improvement focus across our organization. We continue to decarbonize our operations to ensure relevance and investability long-term. You can see we're already in the top 15% globally on emissions intensity, and our methane emissions are at the near-zero level. We're already doing very well, but our aim is to reduce our emissions further. In addition to emissions reductions, Vår Energi aims to become carbon neutral in our net equity operational emissions by 2030 through removals in the voluntary carbon market. We continue to be recognized for our ESG leadership, ranked by both Sustainalytics and S&P Global in the top 15% of the global oil and gas industry.
I think this is leveraging to how the company is viewed, and you'll hear more from all of this later today from Ellen. Now looking at the business, Vår Energi has a high-quality, diversified asset base in all areas of the NCS. You can see we have interest in around 50% of all producing assets and the associated infrastructure, and with a large exploration footprint. Only Equinor has a bigger and more diverse portfolio than we do. We also have a balanced commodity mix, with gas being around one-third of our production volumes, making us one of the largest gas exporters from Norway. We've stepped up the pace to maximize the value from our portfolio. With our major projects completed, the outlook for the company is de-risked. What is ahead of us is a series of low-risk, high-value, predictable tieback projects with short time to market.
We will invest more to deliver higher production for longer from our material resource base, which is opportunity-rich. We continue to incrementally improve the outlook for the company, making it better and better. We're increasing resilience and flexibility, which is important for navigating this period of lower prices. We're investing in high-return projects, delivering higher value creation, and ensuring long-term attractive dividends. This is how we will deliver more value for longer. Now let us look at the highlights for 2025. I'm pleased to report to you that strong results for 2025 have delivered transformational growth in the year. We delivered record-high production in the fourth quarter of 397,000 bbl per day oil equivalent per day and 332,000 bbl per day for the year. Our major projects, Johan Castberg and Balder X, were completed on schedule.
In total, nine new growth projects started up during the year as planned, adding around 180,000 bbl per day at peak. We're making good progress unlocking the future value of our portfolio. You can see we sanctioned 10 high-value projects in 2025. These are developing around 160 million bbl of net reserves with an average break-even price of $30 per barrel. We continue to create value from exploration with six commercial successes in the year, and we're already turning this into value. Bringing this together, we increased reserves with a 2P reserve replacement ratio of 185%. We delivered strong financial performance last year, with cash flow from operations post-tax of $4.6 billion for the full year. Production costs for the year were at $11.1 per barrel, at the lower end of our guidance range. For the fourth quarter, we reduced further to $10 per barrel as we had guided.
We have strong available liquidity of $3.5 billion, and we maintain a strong investment-grade balance sheet. Lastly, we continue to provide attractive dividends. We will pay a dividend of $300 million for the fourth quarter of last year. This will be distributed in February. This means total 2025 dividend payout is $1.2 billion, which is 26% of CFFO post-tax. In summary, we delivered strong results in 2025 in line with expectations. Now looking forward to 2026, we're set for record production levels, with 2026 production expected in the range of 390,000 bbl-410,000 bbl per day in line with how we've previously guided. You'll see we're accelerating the pace of new growth opportunities that will support higher production for longer. We have 13 projects in execution. These are developing 210 million bbl of net reserves with low operating costs and break-evens on average around $30 a barrel.
We expect to sanction up to eight new projects this year, targeting around 140 million bbl net of net reserves. We're continuing to drill out our exciting exploration portfolio with 12 wells planned, targeting approximately 75 million bbl of net risked resources. We continue to drive efficiency, delivering incremental improvements across the whole value chain, and you'll see many examples of this today. 2026 production costs will be around $10 per barrel, and we aim to sustain at this level long-term. We continue to reduce emissions with the long-term aim to be carbon neutral in our operations by 2030. The key focus of management is to deliver long-term attractive dividends to our shareholders, as our track record demonstrates. We're seeing increased volatility and significant uncertainties in the world, and this can lead to a lower-for-longer price scenario. We will take a prudent approach, guiding dividends on a quarterly basis.
We continue the attractive dividend level and provide guidance for the first quarter of 2026 of $300 million. This is the same run rate as we had for 2025. For the full- year 2026, we will continue guiding on a quarterly basis in line with our long-term dividend policy of 25%-30% of CFFO after tax over the cycles. Now let us look at how we will deliver higher production and value for longer. Vår Energi has an amazing portfolio with lots of optionality and growth opportunities. I think you will see that. We have a track record of continually growing reserves and resources organically. You can see here that our 2P reserves stand at 1.3 billion bbl. This underpins our current production levels. As a company, we are much, much more than that. We have 2C contingent resources of around 900 million bbl.
These resources are undeveloped, and we're moving forward around 30 early-phase projects to develop around two-thirds of these volumes. We also have an exciting exploration portfolio of about 1 billion bbl of net risked resources. When you put this together, we have around 3 billion bbl of resource potential with around 1.7 billion bbl or 60% yet to be developed. Delivering this opportunity is how we will deliver higher production for longer. As I said earlier, Vår Energi has delivered transformational production growth in 2025. You can see we doubled production from just two years ago. In 2026, we expect to produce between 390,000 bbl and 410,000 bbl per day. During the year, we'll bring online a material program of infill wells and some new project startups that will keep production at current levels beyond the end of this year.
Long-term, we're targeting over 400,000 bbl per day, a step up from the 350,000 bbl-400,000 bbl per day towards 2030 that we guided at last year's CMU. These are the levers that will drive higher production for longer. Firstly, it's through maximizing recovery from our high-quality producing assets. We see a continuous infill drilling program developing net resources of more than 300 million bbl over time. These are the best bbl we can develop with break-evens of well less than $30 per barrel. Secondly, as I've mentioned already, we have 13 high-value projects in execution developing net 2P reserves of 210 million bbl. This portfolio has average break-evens of around $30 a barrel. Thirdly, we're progressing around 30 early-phase projects. These are all tieback developments with short time to market, targeting net resources of 550 million bbl.
This portfolio will create material value with average break-evens of less than $35 a barrel, and our aim is to do better than that. Finally, we're unlocking more value with our focused exploration program. We have a strong track record of creating value from our exploration, as you'll see later. We plan to drill 50-60 wells over the next five years. This program is targeting net risked resources of around 500 million bbl. When you put all this together, we're progressing activity to create value from around 70% or 1.2 billion bbl of the 1.7 billion bbl undeveloped upside in our portfolio. We're after and developing a material part of the upside opportunity.
Development of this portfolio of high-value, low-risk, short-cycle projects will increase returns from our business, with return on capital employed projected to increase from the current level of around 20% to up to 25%-30% by 2030. This adds significant value, and Carlo will come back to this later. Additionally, we continue to take an opportunistic approach to further M&A, where there is a strategic fit and we can create value. It is top of mind to seek the next step change in the company's outlook. We're also targeting to optimize our portfolio, where we have some high working interest and can reduce our capital requirements for new growth projects. What we have in mind will have limited short-term production impact, and we will move this process forward during the first half of the year.
This program delivers higher production for longer, targeting over 400,000 bbl per day long-term. It's driven by a material long-life resource base, which, as you can see, is opportunity-rich. We will invest more over a longer time horizon into a series of high-value, low-risk, short-cycle projects. We are using this lower-price environment to improve the economic resilience of our investments. Importantly, we have the people, the equipment, and contracts in place to deliver this improved outlook for the company. Vår Energi's high-quality business provides a strong foundation to deliver attractive long-term value to shareholders. As outlined, we will deliver higher production for longer, targeting over 400,000 bbl per day long-term. Our high-margin bbl mean that the business is free cash flow neutral at around $40 per barrel over the period 2026 to 2032.
This means that above $40, we generate cash to pay dividends or to pay down debt, and we're covering all of our costs. This means we generate strong free cash flow in the range of $5 billion-$10 billion over the same period. We have a strong investment-grade balance sheet and a lot of flexibility, with 60% of our capital uncommitted, meaning we can manage through the low-up commodity price cycles with a lot of flexibility. This combines to allow us to pay attractive dividends within our long-term dividend policy of 25%-30% of cash flow from operations post-tax over the cycles. It is the key focus of management to maintain long-term attractive shareholder returns, and we have a resilient and flexible business that will allow us to navigate this lower-price environment. To summarize, I want to leave you with the following messages.
First of all, Vår Energi is a stronger de-risk company positioned to generate more value for longer. Our material resource base of around 3 billion bbl is the foundation for this. We have increased the outlook with higher production for longer, targeting over 400,000 bbl per day long-term. We're opportunity-rich. We're increasing investments in a series of high-value, low-risk, short-cycle projects that will increase returns. This adds significant value. We continue to incrementally improve the business for increased resilience and flexibility with a low free cash flow break-even of around $40 a barrel. We'll generate more value for longer, supporting long-term attractive returns in line with our dividend policy of 25%-30% of CFFO post-tax over the cycles. I think these are the reasons to be invested in Vår Energi.
With that, I'm going to hand over to my colleagues who will provide further details on how we will deliver this exciting outlook for the company, with first up being Torger. Before Torger comes to the stage, please enjoy this film on the further development of the Balder area. Thank you very much.
At the heart of the North Sea lies the Balder area, a key production hub for decades. We revitalized and turned into an engine for long-term value creation with the refurbished and modern Jotun FPSO back at the field, delivering at full capacity for longer and extending its lifetime. By leveraging new technology and existing infrastructure, the next wave of project developments is already progressing towards startup with low break-even, execution time at pace, and short payback time. Our ambition is to unlock more than 300 million bbl of gross resource potential in the area.
With Balder Phase VI coming on stream at the end of this year, just 18 months after sanction, the Jotun de-bottlenecking will follow shortly, with startup only one year after sanctioning, also targeting end 2026. This being the first of several projects planned as part of the Balder Next development. Through Balder Next, we optimize and restructure the field by decommissioning of the old Balder FPU to reduce operating costs and carbon emissions. We increase capacity on the Jotun FPSO, establish new subsea infrastructure, and drill new wells in the area. Artificial intelligence, combined with the latest high-resolution seismic, helps us identify drilling targets faster, better, and cheaper. We apply the subsea factory approach with standardized designs, enabling quicker installation, improved well placement, and reduced drilling time.
By actively deploying multilateral well technology, we maximize the meters in the reservoir and optimize the number of infill wells to increase recovery and reduce the development cost on a gross resource potential of up to 70 million bbl. Balder is more than a series of projects. It is one of our key elements to sustain high production for longer, creating value by adding low-cost, highly profitable production towards 2045 and beyond.
Good afternoon, all. It's really good to be here, and what a fantastic movie. This kind of movies always gives me goosebumps, and it makes me really proud of the industry and my colleagues. Also, here you see a fantastic photo: Johan Castberg at location. The Cathedral of the Barents Sea, as Energy Minister Terje Aasland likes to call it. On this slide, you see my main topics for today.
2025 was a really good year, and Vår Energi has never been in a better position. We have delivered transformational growth, doubling production since 2023, and based on our growing resource base, we are becoming opportunity-rich, essentially moving from two megaprojects to a large portfolio of high-value subsea tie-back projects. Through continuous improvement and enhanced capabilities, we are improving all parts of our business. This is by improving our ways of working and developing better solutions. The bottom line here is that we have the basis to deliver more than 400,000 bbl per day long-term, creating more value for longer, becoming bigger and better. 2025: transformational growth delivered. We reached the milestone of above 400,000 bbl per day in August, and we met the full-year production guidance of 332,000 bbl.
During Q3 and Q4, we saw a record production level for the company, and all projects promised during last capital market update were brought on stream during the year. Also, our operated assets performed very well, with maintenance included, ending on 92% production efficiency, a really strong number. Let's have a look at the key elements to this transformational growth: Jotun and Johan Castberg. Here you see Jotun at location. I think this is the clearest symbol you can have of our de-risked Vår Energi. The Balder field with Jotun is really ticking all the boxes: transformational growth, opportunity-rich, and continuously improving. You might ask, how is Jotun doing? I'm happy to say it's very well, producing as expected, being around 80,000 bbl gross per day, and we have a plan to keep feeding Jotun for the long term.
Balder Phase V was sanctioned and had first oil in December 2025. Balder Phase VI will be brought online Q4 this year. The next phases for the Balder field and Jotun constitute three main elements named Balder Next. The first one is Jotun debottlenecking. It is already sanctioned. That happened late last year. This is to increase the production capacity, which will accelerate production and then enable for the next step, being the removal of the Balder FPU to reduce OpEx and emissions, which is planned to happen in 2028. The third step is to drill more wells or new wells in the area, which is planned to be sanctioned this year, 2026, and this is to increase the recovery and feed the Jotun FPSO. That means that Jotun is a modern hub for the future, expected to produce to 2050. Then we are moving north to Johan Castberg.
As you know, it started up Q1 2025, and it reached plateau in June 2025. Also, Johan Castberg FPSO is currently producing stable, and as expected, with a really robust well potential. Today, 22 wells are completed, and the remaining 8 wells will be concluded within the beginning of 2026. Together with Equinor, we target to maintain plateau production at Johan Castberg beyond 2030. This is through infill program, new tieback developments, and further exploration. End 2025, we sanctioned the increased oil recovery wells and the Isflak subsea tieback. There is more to come for Johan Castberg. The Snøfonn/ Skavl subsea tieback might be sanctioned already by the end of this year. That means, summarized, Johan Castberg has a large area of prospectivity, estimated to have around 1 billion bbl, meaning production for decades to come.
With Njord and Johan Castberg at location and producing as expected, this gives us a fantastic de-risked foundation for our 2026 production. Around 30% of current production is coming from Njord and Johan Castberg. 2026 is really set up to deliver record high production. We saw a production average of January of 416,000 bbl per day, and in February so far, it's 423,000 bbl. Actually, we saw a company record on the 23rd of January this year, a production of 443,000 bbl. You might ask, what is the potential? I will say that the potential for a perfect production day is around 450,000 bbl. This year, we are going to have less new projects starting up, four in total, and that is, of course, a lot less compared to 2025. These four projects are contributing with an average of 15,000 bbl net the next two years.
Also, we have a significant infill program, which I will return to later in my presentation. Then you see a small and a smaller dip in Q2, Q3. This is the turnaround and planned maintenance season. This year, that will have a limited impact on the full-year production. Here, we are talking about 9,000 bbl per day on average. This means that we have a de-risked outlook for 2026, and that constitutes a production guidance for the year of 390,000 bbl-410,000 bbl. Of all the slides today I'm going to present, I think this one is my favorite, and you will soon hear why. Because Vår Energi is oil and gas, and what we make for a living is our resources and reserves.
While producing more than ever in 2025, we exit the year with a bigger bank account than we entered the year: 2,200 million bbl of reserves and resources. I get dry in my mouth. Fantastic. This is a very strong replacement. That represents a very strong replacement performance in 2025. Just listen: reserve replacement ratio of 185%, resource replacement of 136%. This means that for each barrel produced, we move 1.85 bbl into our reserve base. The result? That means that we have a resource pool that will sustain the production for 70 years based on the 2025 production level. Of course, this is not including any exploration success going forward. That means it's not very likely. Not only does the company have an impressive resource base, but also it's well distributed across our hubs. This means that we are adding resilience and flexibility.
All hubs have a very solid 2P base, which, based on the 2025 production levels, will ensure production for the next 10 years. Also, you see that we have a large portfolio of 2C volumes that are currently being matured, meaning that we are opportunity-rich. All hubs have increased their combined 2P and 2C resources since last capital market update one year ago. This really makes it possible for us to target a production in the range of 90,000 bbl-110,000 bbl per hub. Combined, this gives us above 400,000 bbl per day long term. But a huge number of resources is not enough. You also need to have the right assets. Ours are future-fit, high-performing assets, really recognized by low cost and low emissions and high uptime.
Several of our assets are electrified, and also all our assets, which is important, have ongoing early-phase projects that will ensure production and continual value creation for decades. We here see an average lifetime to 2050 and beyond. In addition, through our large, high-quality portfolio, Vår Energi holds equity in around 50% of all the Norwegian Continental Shelf fields, which ensure tieback opportunities and close collaboration in strong partnerships. We are, as Nick also said, improving the company. You see it through exploration of our projects, drilling and well, subsurface, and operations. But status quo is not an option. We have set new, ambitious long-term targets for our core business, enabled by value-driven technology implementation and the use of artificial intelligence. Why?
It is really about finding more, improving recovery, better developments, and running our operations safe and efficient through improved ways of working and our solutions, really enabling more value with less. This has already yielded a lot of value creation. E xample given is the Balder area. By combining this through the subsurface drilling and well and project development, we have doubled the recovery reserves for the ongoing projects, Balder Phase V and Balder Phase VI. Really, as you heard on the film from Guro, she talked about combining artificial intelligence and seismic. What did she say? We are doing things faster, better, and cheaper. That means more recovery, higher value. Really, the result here is unlocking value we earlier did not believe was possible. To conclude, our ambition is clear. It is to become the best in running our core business, driven by forceful implementation of technology and artificial intelligence.
We have seen improved results regarding our operated cost basis. We have talked about it, and we have reported it, and we have achieved it. We got to $10 per barrel for Q4 2025. We have reduced the unit operating cost by 30% during the last three years. We will maintain around $10 per barrel for the long term. Actually, since the last capital market update one year ago, we have incorporated $400 million net of cost reductions for the period 2026 to 2030. We are targeting further reductions in the years to come. The driver for this? High production for longer, 2032 and beyond, subsea tiebacks, which is really utilizing existing infrastructure. That means marginal incremental cost and low emissions. Further, we are working relentlessly to improve our operational model, driving down cost, optimizing production, and improving the production efficiency.
We are working hard to create economies of scale through collaboration with our partners, particularly here at Equinor, when it comes to logistics, infrastructure, and assets. That means bases, rigs, helicopters, and supply bases. We have done this in the Balder area. We are doing it in the Barents area, and we are going to continue to do this. Then you might think, okay, so what is the sum of the story so far, Torger ? If I'm going to summarize it in one word: competitiveness. When it comes to our case for Vår Energi, it means improved competitiveness. This gives more opportunities for value creation and higher activity. I think you will see this very clear when we are coming to our infill program and our project portfolio. Let's start with our infill wells.
Nick also talked to this and said, "This is the most effective and profitable wells to be had." We will participate in a large number every year between now and 2032, targeting 30-40 wells a year. This year, we will be building up the production with an annual contribution of around 40,000 bbl. What you will recognize in the infill wells is that they have a very strong economy, less than 30, a lot less for some, and a payback time less than one year. I hope you think the same as me. This is really the perfect match for Vår Energi with a high-quality portfolio. Big fields are getting bigger. It is good resource management and really high value creation. Then our high-value projects in execution. We have 13 projects in execution representing 210 million bbl of reserves.
Last year, we had nine startups and 10 projects sanctioned. This really proves our ability to replenish the portfolio with new production. Here, we have a value-driven approach. We are working very closely and hard with our suppliers to find the best solutions for value creation. This results in a highly competitive portfolio with a break-even of around $30 per barrel and $3 per barrel in average unit operational cost. For those that remember as well, that means that we have improved this since last CMU, really through our maturation phase, making better solutions, finding more value in our projects. Then to our large, early-phase portfolio. I have done quite a few projects in my life.
But when I look at this slide and these projects, I have to say, "What a portfolio." It is opportunity-rich, it's high value, it's flexible, it's de-risked, and it is really ensuring high production for longer. Last year, we had 25 projects in the early phase addressing 500 million bbl. Even though 10 projects were sanctioned in 2025, we still have around 30 projects, targeting now 550 million bbl net to develop. That really means that we have been stepping up and growing our early-phase portfolio. These are high-return projects with a break-even of around $35. That means that we have been growing our portfolio while maintaining attractive returns. Here, we can ensure you all we are going to stay disciplined, ensuring sanctioning high-quality projects. This year, we are targeting up to eight sanctions. Now I'm coming to a really important slide.
Now you have to, you know, keep your attention. Because the message here is that we are going to produce more for longer. The reason for this is that we have an improved outlook of our business. Today's production forecast for 2030 is 40%-40% higher than the outlook that we presented to you in 2023. Actually, it's more than 20% higher than we presented for the capital market update last year. The recipe? We are improving the recovery, continuous focus on maturing and drilling infill wells. As you have seen, we have a big project portfolio proving our ability to mature and accelerate new opportunities, which I would like to summarize in two words: opportunity-rich. Very soon, you will hear Oddgeir explain more about this. Of course, we also have consistent exploration success. Luca will address this a bit later today. M&A.
As you heard Nick say, it is really part of the DNA in Vår Energi. There would have been no Vår Energi without it, but it must be value accretive. We have been good at it. The value accretive part, I mean, realizing a lot of value, both based on the Neptune acquisition and more recently the Ekofisk PPF. Ekofisk produced fields, previously produced fields, that means. Then I'm coming to my last slide and to conclude. Our value proposition is clear. Transformation growth has been delivered, and we are targeting above 400,000 bbl long term. That means higher for longer. We are de-risked and opportunity-rich based on a significant reserve and resource basis of 2,200 million bbl, more than 40 projects under development, our large infill program, and really an exciting exploration portfolio. We will continue improving our capability with the ambition to be best.
We are getting bigger and better. With that, thanks a lot for your attention. Then, Oddgeir, I'll give it over to you, but first, there's a film. Thank you so much.
The Barents Sea is an area with considerable upside potential. With ownership in all producing assets and a significant resource base, we have built a foundation for future development and value creation. At the Goliat Field, the Barents Sea's first oil producer, our fully electrified and advanced FPSO, is set to realize its full potential as a key hub, extending the Goliat field's lifetime and unlocking value from near-field discoveries. To secure the future of Goliat beyond 2045, we are focusing on maximizing the recovery with continuous infill drilling on Goliat, combined with developing the Goliat Gas export and Goliat Ridge projects, taking the total gross potential to around 400 million bbl.
Our exploration and subsurface teams are working at pace, integrating the results of the appraisal wells campaign, including good production results from the Countach well test and the newly acquired high-resolution seismic data to unlock the full potential of the ridge. Collaborating in a virtual environment, we integrate real-time data and advanced modeling to streamline planning and execution, reducing complexity and cost, accelerating decisions, significantly shortening the time from discovery to production. Through the combination of standardization and application of new solutions and technology, we take full advantage of our subsea factory approach, improving the solutions and the value creation. We are targeting first oil from the Goliat Ridge in 2029.
2025 was a transformational year for Vår Energi. We delivered nine out of nine planned project startups, including the two major projects, Johan Castberg and Jotun FPSO.
These two projects have constituted 60% of the total project portfolio the last years. There have been complex and long-duration greenfield and refurbishment projects. Now that they are completed, they will serve as important hubs for future value creation. Our projects have transitioned together with the company, and our current and future portfolio will be close to 100% focused on subsea tiebacks, with low breakevens, higher flexibility, short paybacks, and fast execution with lower risk. To ensure success from initiation to startup, a key focus area has been to ensure we implement a project factory way of working. We have, while delivering the startup, built capability and capacity for the subsea project factory. We have put all the building blocks in place.
With a portfolio approach of around 30 early-phase projects, we have flexibility to choose the most attractive projects first and improve and arrange the rest before moving into execution. It is a disciplined approach to ensure robustness in our portfolio. Then, through simplification, standardization, and running parallel activities, we capture an economy of scale and enable faster development and execution of our project portfolio. Our strategic partnership ensures early engagement and provides us competence and capacity at the right time. Enabled by these points, we can also pre-commit long lead items. We, in fact, see this as de-risking the portfolio. I will come back with tangible examples from our projects. Altogether, this changes the way we work and improves the solutions. This is the factory project way of working, and it will enable us to get higher production for longer and create more value.
Let me first start with the portfolio. We have demonstrated our ability to mature and develop our resources through the later years. The project portfolio has grown significantly over time, doubling the number of early-phase projects, including volumes, from 2023 to today. This, while we delivered 10 project sanctions in 2025, outperformed the target of 8 million bbl and moved 160 million bbl into execution, which means, combined with the projects in execution, we now have more than 40 projects in the portfolio. Our projects, they are evenly distributed both in time and across all the hubs. It is a strong and healthy funnel. We have been able to pull project startups closer in time, combined with increasing the activity. The majority of the project is starting up before 2030.
The entrepreneurial culture and proactive mindset, then supported by continued commitment from the company, has really enabled us to step up the pace and deliver faster than also for the future opportunities to refill the portfolio. A prime example of our project factory is the Balder Phase VI project. It is a project reshaped from a rather complex solution with several wells to a first-off for Vår Energi, a trilateral well, which means it's a single top hole with three branches into the reservoir with a very slim and efficient subsea production system. This is true value creation and the entire team solving for totality. We started the project two years back, and among others, due to pre-commitments, we will achieve first oil in Q4, only 18 months after sanctioning. The project will deliver around 17 million bbl and has excellent economics with payback in less than one year.
The factory approach enables learning from this project to be replicated across the portfolio, making us always searching for improvements to optimize value. This brings me into the Balder Next project. It is a true Kinder Egg, three-in-one, where we continue to develop the Balder area through three parts. First, we are increasing the topside processing capacity to accelerate and take on more volumes on Jotun FPSO via the Jotun Deb ottlenecking project. It was sanctioned in 2025. It is in full execution and will achieve startup this year in 2026. Second, we will unlock around 75 million bbl through Balder Next new wells, contributing to maintaining 70,000 bbl-80,000 bbl per day towards 2030. Third, we reduce OpEx by $130 million annually and remove 70,000 tons of CO2 emissions through the Balder FPU decommissioning, where the Balder FPU production volumes are maintained through sidetracks from the new wells.
This shows the deliverables obtained by the subsea project factory. The pace and value creation are supported by the way of working and enabled by pre-commitments. Balder Next was initiated last year, beginning of 2025. We will deliver the first part in 2026, first oil from new wells in 2027, and take Balder FPU to shore in 2028. Balder Next will further position Jotun as one of our core assets, ready for the future. This is only the first of many similar early-phase projects that will feed the Jotun FPSO with volumes towards 2030 and beyond. With the Goliat Ridge discovery, a new phase for value creation has begun with an ambition to sanction more than double what Goliat has produced since startup 10 years ago.
The Goliat Gas project, ready to be sanctioned in 2026, will provide a gas export solution for Goliat, prolonging the lifetime towards 2050 and increasing oil production by optimizing reservoir management. It reduces unit OpEx and paves the way for further projects to increase production over Goliat, with the first being the Goliat Ridge project. Together with Goliat Gas, the Goliat Ridge project has the potential to secure more than 300 million bbl of production in the years to come. The Goliat Ridge is what you may call in the backyard, and with discoveries of hydrocarbons in all wells drilled, the extensive appraisal and data acquisition on the Goliat Ridge has proven the potential, and the project team is aiming towards startup in 2029, utilizing available capacity in the high-performing Goliat platform. As Luca will cover later, it doesn't stop with these two projects.
The Goliat Ridge discovery has unlocked further prospectivity around Goliat that will be matured fast. We will continue the active infill program in the years to come, building on the previous year's successful volume additions. Then we have Gjøa, our efficient asset in the North Sea. It's also situated in a very prolific area with four discoveries in recent years. These are now combined into one project to maximize synergies and enhance the value. We anticipate sanctioning the project this year and achieving first oil in 2027 for Cerisa and 2028 for the rest, meaning less than two years between sanctioning and production startup. In addition to Gjøa subsea projects, Vår Energi will drill the first infill well since field startup this year. We are here also looking for more. Luca will come back to our exploration plans with a number of wells already this year.
Let me summarize in four points. Vår Energi is opportunity-rich. We took 10 sanctions last year, expect up to 8 this year. We keep growing the early-phase portfolio, now containing around 30 projects with more than 500 million bbl of contingent resources. The projects have strong economics, low breakevens, and an ambition to improve. With the size of our portfolio, we have the flexibility and optionality in terms of speed and also prioritizing high-value creation. The subsea projects provide fast execution with lower risk, and it will enable value to create more value for longer, the subsea project factory way. Thank you for your attention, and I will hand the word over to Luca.
Thank you, Oddgeir, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It's a great pleasure to be back on stage and talk about exploration and the future of the company.
But it's even more impressive to feel lagging behind because you just introduced names, projects that are already delivering in your pipeline that last year were still in my to-do list. This is how fast we can go. This is literally delivering seamlessly in Vår Energi. It's something that we are experiencing altogether, transforming the company and, of course, transforming it in the NCS. The NCS remains the excellent playground with a lot of undiscovered resources. We can put numbers, but these are the ones that are widely known. We believe we are in an excellent position to take advantage of it from an industrial point of view. Of course, we have a portfolio of prospects that is hovering around 200. We believe they are well-distributed and harmonized in a portfolio that includes infrastructure-led, near-field opportunities, as well as high impact.
The number, of course, of appraisals depends a little bit on the results of the discoveries, on the results of where they are, how they are. It fluctuates a bit, but the share 80/20 remains representative, definitely, for our type of activity in terms of drilling. All this contains roughly 1 billion bbl of oil equivalent net resources, which is a substantial and material basket from which to draw, and 60% of it is oil, or at least estimated at the moment. The portfolio is a very nice thing to have. We have it, and we draw from it using creativity and data. We use expertise and, of course, integration of our technology, passion. All these elements are part of the recipe that take us to take the commitment and drill the ultimate wells. Selectiveness. We need to select. We need to be disciplined.
All this has been recorded in the last four or five years. We are looking at a track record between 2021 and 2025 that shows how we added 280 million bbl of oil equivalent in terms of resources. Let's have a look. We were talking about how fast we can be in bringing them online, and this is exactly what we were talking about. 70% of it is either producing, therefore produced, or in their way to be produced. Success rate speaks for itself. It's substantially higher than the average. We managed to keep the costs down with a post-tax around $1 per barrel. It's, I would say, a very good introduction. But then what do we do? In 2025, we had a very intense in terms of activity year. We will see later. I will get back to it anyway.
Oddgeir already mentioned how much it has been done on the ridge, on the Goliat Ridge. It is important to remember that the ridge is not the only place in which we had discoveries. We made six discoveries, and at least two of them account for substantial additional potential, and you see them recorded on the map, 300 million bbl between the Goliat Ridge and the Wisting Ridge as additional and follow-up. It's substantial. The number of bbl that we added, simply last year, are in the range of 45 million-75 million net. Of course, not only the long term, but also results in terms of immediate cash flow have been recorded with Smørbukk Midt. I'm sorry for my pronunciation. This is one of those that I can't pronounce at all. I'm sorry.
But it still represents a landmark because we literally were on target during Q2, and in Q3, we started production. This means that we had 16,000 gross, 16,000 bbl per day produced throughout the year, an incredibly short payout time. It's what we are looking forward to. We need long-term or mid-term because 2029 is just around the corner, and we will see the production from the Goliat Ridge. Let's say mid to long-term to sustain our production, but also we need immediate results, cash, and we have the portfolio to do so. The portfolio, of course, needs to be fed, and we have the results of the upper round with 14 new licenses. We mentioned Wisting, and Wisting was part of a very, very long story. It's how we managed to integrate legacy exploration with, of course, expertise, subsurface capacities, and integration.
Imagine the first discovery, or at least a well, was drilled some 30 years ago. We were in the previous century with different technologies, and results remained doubtful, to say the least. We've been capable of going back, studying the data, reintegrating the data with new technologies, new capacities, new seismic imaging. We decided that that was the way to go and look at the result. We unlocked the potential of a full ridge, and we opened up for more opportunities. We're absolutely close to one of our core areas, the Fenja platform, where, of course, we can, I would say easily, nothing is easy, of course, but we can have a subsea tie-back, which means, of course, many advantages in terms of operations, but monetization that is much better and simplified. It's not enough. That's not enough. A new reprocessed seismic has been delivered just a few weeks ago.
We are reworking again the whole area, and we will add more opportunities. The activity follows up. A well is already in our drilling string for 2026, and we are planning to add more in order, of course, to improve the discoveries. It's what I mean, I'm Italian, so it could be easy to make a recipe. This time, I'll go botanic, and it's more like a garden. This is another very, very, very nice garden that has been mentioned earlier on. It's the Gjøa area. There is no weed because nothing grows by itself. We need to make it grow. How do we make it grow? We use our capacities. We use our creativeness. We use our technology, and we leverage on all the discoveries that we made, all the wells that we drill, all the data that we gather.
Everything is put together, blended into something that is called exploration because we need to see beyond. We need, of course, to be capable of producing the results that have been recorded in the area in the last few years with multiple discoveries like Cerisa, Gjøa, Ofelia, Gjøa North. Follow up. Follow up because now there are more things that we can see because there is better and improved seismic and additional technology, and we can go further. This is what we will try this year with two wells already in our plan, Annabel and Sara. The idea is to continue. You see a lot of blobs there. Of course, the light blue ones are the prospects, the ones that are not yet matured. But we expect to bring them all into this stage where we will finally put the well on them. The number itself is impressive.
We are talking about more than 200 million bbl recoverable still there for us. This is the constant gardening activity that we are called upon doing. Where it all comes together, I believe, has been already shown by Oddgeir, and it is the Goliat Ridge. The Goliat Ridge, so intensive activity last year. We drilled three wells. Two of them were appraisals. This is flexibility, capacity to act, to have vision and be ready to drill in case of success. Seismic. Seismic that will and is already delivering great results because we are substituting something that was shot 25 years ago. It has been stretched, and now we are moving into a completely different environment with the capacity to pinpoint details that were not visible earlier on. Still, on that seismic, on the legacy seismic, we located most of the wells, and we made the fantastic discovery in Rødhette.
That was the one that allowed us to understand the migration path and opened up a story that is not finished. We tested at the end of last year the appraisal well with over 4,000 bbl of oil per day from two levels. There are quite a few other prospects that are following this incredible result of the test because now we know that we can produce from more levels than we expected before. It's unlocking the future, but it's actually extending the life of this fantastic facility. The same we are doing on Gjøa, and absolutely the same is happening on Fenja. What is next? Next will be a disciplined and selective approach to high-quality prospects, coming, of course, from the basket that you saw at the beginning, the 1 billion, that is continuously worked on and rejuvenated.
We are looking at 12 wells in 2026 for a total investment that is expected to stay around $250 million-$300 million in 2026. For the coming years, you see that we have in mind to drill 10-15 wells per year with a reduced investment based on our capacity to improve and be more efficient in our selection and in our spending. All in all, a bright and harmonized approach to a portfolio that is really rich. It's a focused exploration program. It's focused on our capacity to create new ideas. It's based on our creativity. It's fueled by our technology that is capable of transforming our vision in objectives that we can drill next year and in the years to come. Thank you.
Thank you, Luca. We will now have a short break. See if I can please ask everyone to be back in the room at 3:30 P.M. We'll have the two last presentations and the Q&A. Thank you.
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome back. I am very pleased to be here today and excited to tell you about our deliveries and our progress since last year. As you heard from Nick earlier today, safe and responsible operations are an integral part of our strategy and our company values. We will continue to provide reliable and affordable oil and gas in a safe and responsible way, with low emissions and low operating costs. To deliver this, we have the perfect toolbox. We have a high-performing organization. What you've heard from Nick, Torger, Luca, and Oddgeir today are the ambitions and the achievements from our entrepreneurial one-team culture.
This enables us to think differently, embrace new ways of working, and to continuously improve. Our strategies and values define who we are, and they give us a shared direction as one team. We believe that a safe, inclusive, and responsible workplace is the foundation for the results that we achieve. This is reflected in low turnover and the strong employee engagement that we continue to see across the organization. Strong partnerships are also key to deliver great results. By working closely with our strategic suppliers, partners, and regulators, we deliver safer and more efficient operations with leading ESG performance. This is the team that will deliver more value for longer. Our ambition is clear. Vår Energi will be the safest operator on the Norwegian continental shelf. Because safety is not just a priority, it's a prerequisite for everything we do.
It's embedded in our strategy, in our values, and in the personal responsibility that each of us take when we come to work to work safely and responsibly every day. And since becoming a listed company in 2022, we have continued to improve our performance. We see a positive trend in dropped objects and a continued reduction in sick leave. And this is by far industry-leading and a third of the Norwegian average. And we believe this is a testimony to our highly motivated colleagues and a thriving working environment. When it comes to incidents with serious potential, we saw a positive development from 2022 to 2024. However, 2025 results are not where we want to be, and we are working hard to turn that trend. But let me be clear on the most important thing. In 2025, no one got seriously injured working for Vår Energi.
We had no serious process safety events, and we had no serious accidental spills to sea. This is something we value, and it shows that we are moving in the right direction on our journey to become the safest operator. We are convinced that low emissions and low costs will have a competitive advantage. We continue to decarbonize our operations and to deliver on our ambitions towards early 2030s. When it comes to emission reductions, our plan consists of three main levers: it's electrification, portfolio optimization, and energy management. As for everything we do, we have a value-driven approach, meaning we shall not only achieve emission reductions but also see benefits from either increased gas sales, higher production efficiency, or reduced operating costs.
Portfolio optimization, which includes the retiring of non-core assets such as the Balder FPU and Statfjord A, will continue to contribute significantly in reducing emissions of over 100,000 net tons annually and, of course, improve our operating costs. Through energy management, we target to materialize approximately 10% of our emission reductions towards 2030. As an example, in 2025, we managed to reduce emissions on our operated assets by around 30,000 tons. This is a good example of that entrepreneurial mindset, finding new ways to save energy that in turn reduces emissions and costs. The emissions we can't reduce, we will offset. We will do it with nature-based quality carbon credits, which is key to deliver on our ambition to become carbon neutral in our operational emissions in 2030.
In addition, we are using certified renewable electricity for the equity share of our operated assets and carbon credits from reforestation projects here in Norway to offset emissions in our value chain, own emissions in the value chain. We continue to develop future solutions. We are progressing on our project on developing blue carbon credits through kelp restoration here in Norway. We are leveraging a core ENP competence, and together with licensed partners and European emitters, we are progressing on CCS. However, the market is developing with a slow pace and with an immature value chain and regulation, and therefore we are maintaining a disciplined and value-driven approach in developing CCS in Vår Energi. Lastly, once again, we proudly received the badge ESG Top Rated in the industry from Sustainalytics. At Vår Energi, we have a clear and credible path forward.
We are on track to reduce emissions by around 35% from today towards early 2030s. Currently, in our portfolio, Goliat, Gjøa, Ormen Lange, Fram, Norne and Sleipner are already fully or partially electrified. Future reductions will be delivered through the already sanctioned electrification of Njord and Snøhvit, through portfolio optimizations that I talked about, and combining these steps materially lower our emissions while strengthening the long-term resilience of our portfolio. At the same time, we are bringing more of our future production into electrified hubs. This means we're not only reducing emissions, we also sustain production volumes in a responsible way. By doing this, we expect that around 40% of our production will be electrified in the early 2030s. More than half of our new projects will be tied back to already electrified assets.
As I'm rounding off, I think this picture highlights why Vår Energi is well positioned for the future, combining low cost with low emissions and an industry that is strongly aligned to continue to drive down emissions. This is yet an example of Vår Energi's commitment to long-term value creation. Vår Energi is already performing at top quartile level. In 2025, our CO2 emissions intensity was 9.5 kilos per barrel, placing us in the top 15% of the global oil and gas producer and with a trajectory of further reductions going forward. Our methane intensity is near zero, significantly better than the global average and among the very best in the industry. I'm also proud to say that our efforts have been recognized.
We've recently received the Gold Standard Pathway certification from the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership, confirming both the credibility of our reporting and the strength of our plans to continue minimizing methane emissions going forward. To conclude, our strategy remains consistent and clear, and our ambition to be the safest operator to deliver responsibly with low emission, low cost, and leading ESG performance remains. By fostering a high-performing organization with an entrepreneurial mindset, we continue to create value for longer. With that, I say thank you for the attention, and please now let me pass the floor to our CFO, Carlo.
Thank you, Ellen, and good afternoon, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here with you today. I would like to start by recapping 2025, how you are characterized by transformational growth.
The company has delivered a record high production, substantially above 100% reserves replacement ratio, and a strong financial performance. If you analyze for the year, we generated $4.6 billion of cash flow from operations after tax, a 35% increase from 2024 despite a lower price environment. We have delivered on our promises to reduce operating costs down to $10 in Q4 with a 25% reduction year-over-year. We continue to have a strong financial position. The leverage ratio is stable year-over-year and down from Q3 level as anticipated. We successfully refinanced the company last year at reduced cost. And as a result, we have high available liquidity at $3.5 billion, up from $1 billion at the end of last year. We continue to deliver attractive returns to our shareholders, distributing a total of $1.2 billion for 2025.
For 2026, we continue with a quarterly dividend level of $300 million for Q1 to be paid in June. Our long-term dividend policy of 25%-30% of CFFO after tax over the cycle remains intact. We achieved robust realized prices in 2025. We generated nearly $2.2 billion in revenues in Q4 and around $8 billion for the year. Despite lower prices, this is 8% up compared to the previous year on the back of higher production. For the full year, the average realized price is $16 per BOE, and this represents a 6% premium to spot, adding one more year of additional revenues above market above to our track record. Looking at the fourth quarter, we realized price for oil was $63 per BOE, and the same was for gas, which represents $4 above the spot reference price.
Looking forward, we have locked in 14% of our gas volume still September at around $75 per BOE, and we continue to have a robust gas sales strategy with access to several markets while retaining the flexibility in the contracts to decide the split between month ahead, day ahead, and fixed price. We have a balanced commodity mix and a strong gas position, being one of the largest exporters of gas from Norway to Europe. Around 30% of our 2025 production is gas, and most of this is piped gas to Europe. 70% of these volumes are sold under long-term offtake agreements with established and solid industrial customers in Europe. Some of these contracts are running until 2036. Our flexible gas sales strategy continues to yield results. We can optimize around pricing points in Europe and nominate volumes on various indexes to capture upside.
Since our listing in 2022, we have on average beaten the spot price by 11%, and in the past three years, we have generated additional revenue above spot pricing of $1.4 billion. We enter 2026 with a solid liquidity and financial position, with a healthy cash balance of $700 million and a total available liquidity of $3.5 billion. We have a diversified long-term capital structure with an average debt maturity of around five years, which aligns with the strategic needs of the business. Looking at the development of our cash position from Q3 to Q4, we generated above $1.8 billion before tax and working capital movements, and this is up compared to the previous quarter. Tax payments amounted to $811 million, up compared to the previous quarter given that we paid three tax installments in Q4.
We had a cash outflow of $970 million in investments in our high-value projects and for the purchase of interest in Ekofisk PPF. Also, in November, we distributed a splendid $300 million in dividend related to our Q3 2025 results. Our value-driven capital allocation framework remains unchanged, with focus on high-value investments to support higher production, returning attractive dividends to our shareholders, and assuring resilience through the cycle. We are set for delivering higher production for longer. We have more growth opportunities, and we keep a disciplined CapEx policy with an average portfolio break-even below $35 per barrel for the new projects. We are committed to maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet and a robust credit profile while paying dividends according to our guidance. Additional free cash flow will be used for extra shareholder distribution and the leveraging.
We also have clear criteria for any M&A activity with a selective and disciplined approach designed to capture growth opportunities and exploit synergies. The most important thing for us is to drive value for our shareholders over time. As you have heard from all my colleagues earlier, we have a strong foundation for delivering long-term value. We are improving our outlook, and we will deliver more production for longer with more than 400,000 bbl per day long-term. This is a material step up compared to the previous outlook. Through this period, we will deliver high-margin bbl with a free cash flow break-even of around $40.
High production, short time to market, and lower cost is the perfect combination to deliver a very strong and resilient free cash flow in a range between $5 billion-$10 billion in the plan, underpinned also by high CapEx flexibility with around 60% of CapEx towards 2032 uncommitted. All of this with an investment-grade balance sheet. We remain committed to attractive and predictable shareholder returns. Predicated on strong profits and free cash flow generation, we maintain the long-term dividend policy of distributing 25%-30% of CFFO after tax over the cycle in dividends to our shareholders. Looking at the next seven years, we are very well positioned to continue to generate material free cash flow while we continue to invest in high-value barrels.
In the period 2026-2032, we are expecting to generate cumulative free cash flow in the range of $5 billion-$10 billion, assuming a Brent of ±$10 on our reference case, which will be available for shareholder distribution and deleveraging. As you can see in the waterfall, this cash flow estimates include uncommitted investments and exploration CapEx, but exclude the potential future value generation associated with successful exploration discoveries, hence representing an upside. We have significant cash flow resilience and flexibility. As you can see here, we have a robust cash flow generation across various price scenarios and a material dividend capacity going forward. We are free cash flow neutral at just $40 per barrel in the period 2026-2032, including all investments and cost of financing. We also have a high degree of flexibility with regards to CapEx spending as we mature our portfolio on new development projects.
We have a low leverage ratio and a solid balance sheet. All this underpins our resilient dividend capacity in the short, medium, and longer term, leaving also headroom for the leveraging and strategic flexibility across various price scenarios. We are freeing up enough resources to be deployed where we generate more value. We are streamlining our exploration program to make it even more focused and value-oriented, optimizing the long-term annual exploration spend down to around $200 million per year from $200 million-$300 million per year previously. This represents a reduction of up to $100 million per year. We are also improving our operating expenses compared to our previous forecast with savings around $400 million over the period 2026-2030, driven by significant cost reduction across the board. At the same time, we have more investment opportunities in high-value projects to create more value for longer.
We are investing in a high-value portfolio with strong economics, short time to market, and quick payback time. This results in an increase of our long-term production target to more than 400,000 bbl per day in the long term compared to 350,000-400,000 bbl per day in the previous CMU, while investing an average of approximately $2.5 billion per year over the plan, which is within our previous guidance. We are opportunity-rich, and we will continue investing in higher production for longer. We are moving from a highly complex into a less complex, standardized, and short time-to-market investment phase. This will allow us to develop our reserves and resources in a much faster way, resulting in significant value creation while maintaining capital discipline. In 2026, we are expecting development CapEx in the range of $2.5 billion-$2.7 billion.
This is broadly flat from last year, now to extending increased activity in our early-phase project portfolio, including Balder Next, and increased ownership in the Ekofisk PPF projects. In the period 2027-2032, we are expecting to invest on average around $2.5 billion per year, with high execution activity concentrated in 2027 and 2028, resulting in slightly higher CapEx than average during these two years. We continue to be disciplined in selecting what we bring to investment decision, and we maintain our return and break-even requirements for the portfolio, IRR above 25%, and break-even below $35 per barrel. One important feature of the operating on the NCS is the fiscal framework. The tax system allows for immediate deduction of capital spending against the special petroleum tax, and this makes it an investment-supportive regime, as you can clearly see in the graph.
We have improved our long-term outlook with higher production for longer and many profitable investment opportunities. But even more important, we are set to incrementally generate more value. The combination of cost discipline, investments in projects with low break-even, short time to market, and quick payback together with a supportive tax regime allows us to sustain the long-term returns and significantly increase the return on capital employed towards 2030 and beyond. It's all about value, but it's also about being resilient in a volatile macro-environment. We have a strong balance sheet with a low leverage ratio and a target of staying below 1.3x net debt over EBITDA threshold over the cycle. Our leverage ratio currently is 0.8x , which is well below our threshold, and provides the company with ample financial flexibility. In this slide, we illustrate how our leverage ratio develops across different oil price scenarios.
What we see is that even in an extended low-price environment, we remain below our 1.3x threshold. This is after dividends are paid according to our policy and while we continue investing in our highly profitable project portfolio. This is another result of the perfect combination of cost discipline, low break-even, short time to market, quick payback time, and supportive tax regime. We have a Baa3 rating from Moody's and a BBB rating from S&P, both with a stable outlook. We are committed to maintain this. Vår Energi is a stronger and lower-risk company, investment opportunity-rich, with higher production and value creation for longer. We remain committed to deliver long-term attractive dividends to our shareholders, as our track record demonstrates. We are seeing increased volatility and significant uncertainties in the world, and this can lead to a lower-for-longer price scenario.
But the key focus of the management is to protect the dividends, and we will take thoughtful measures to protect this while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet and preserve a strong outlook. We are taking a prudent approach, and for 2026, we will guide the dividend on a quarterly basis. For the first quarter of 2026, we plan to maintain the current dividend level of $300 million, which is the same run rate as for 2025. The dividend is planned to be paid in June and will be based on the distributable equity at year-end and expected Q1 2026 profit generation. And for the full- year 2026, we will continue guiding on a quarterly basis in line with our long-term dividend policy of 25%-30% of CFFO after tax over the cycles.
We are reconfirming our long-term dividend policy of 25%-30% of CFFO after tax over the cycles. Vår Energi has an impressive track record of delivering value to our shareholders. Since we listed back in February 2022, we have delivered approximately 115% in total shareholder return. In total, we have returned around $4.4 billion in dividends to our shareholders. Finally, I will summarize our 2026 guidance. Production guidance is 390,000-400,000 bbl per day. Production cost will be around $10 per barrel, and we aim to sustain this level for the long term. Development CapEx will be at $2.5 billion-$2.7 billion. Exploration expenses and AbEx will be around $250,000-$300,000 and $200,000, respectively.
Last but not least, we are maintaining a dividend level of $300 million for Q1 2026, and we are keeping the long-term dividend policy of 25%-30% of CFFO post-tax over the cycles. With that, I hand it back to Nick for concluding remarks. Thank you.
Well, thank you, Carlo. I have just one final slide to wrap up and emphasize our key messages again. I hope you've seen that Vår Energi is a stronger, de-risk company positioned to generate more value for longer. Our material resource base of around 3 billion bbl is the foundation for this. As I said earlier, we've increased the outlook with higher production for longer, targeting over 400,000 bbl per day long term. As we've tried to get across today, we're opportunity-rich, and we're increasing investments in a series of high-value, low-risk, short-cycle projects that will increase returns, adding, I think, significant value.
We continue to incrementally improve the business for increased resilience and flexibility with a low free cash flow break-even of around $40 per barrel. We will generate more value for longer, supporting long-term attractive returns in line with our dividend policy of 25%-30% of CFFO post-tax over the cycles. As I said earlier, I believe these are the reasons to be invested in Vår Energi. With that, I'm going to hand over to Ida to lead our Q&A session. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Nick. Can I invite Torger and Carlo back to the stage as well? We'll address questions in the room first. Can I please ask you to introduce yourself and keep to a max of two questions per person? Then we'll take the questions from the call afterwards. Can we start with Sasikanth here in the middle?
Hi. This is Sasikanth Chilukuru from Jefferies. I had two questions. The first was regarding the production profile that you've highlighted now, Slide 34 and 35. You've talked about improving the outlook. Of course, last year, you presented production declining to around 350. Now we see growth coming in 28 to 30. You've highlighted a lot of projects, but I just wanted to understand if you were to isolate two or three key projects that we should be looking at now that have improved that outlook, that would be interesting. The second one was regarding capital allocation, especially I just wanted to understand your thinking between dividends and debt reductions on leverage.
Just wondering if you are penciling in any debt reductions at all at an absolute level between 2026 and 2032, or would you be or otherwise, would you be open to actually increasing your net debt levels as well to support the distributions?
Yeah, I can start on the first. Actually, the message today is that we have improved all our projects. Really, that means also an improved outlook. I think for this year and the project that we have been working a lot and actually accelerating and bringing closer is like Ole Gerhard talked about. He talked about the Balder Next. So that one is one that is coming very in. We have started, I would say, the sanctioning there. Of course, we talked about the Goliat Ridge and the maturation there, as well as, of course, the our subsidy projects that are also soon to come. Then on top of this is the, I would say, the icing on the cake being the infill program. So everything is being improved. Everything is seeing a better outlook today than it did one year ago, so.
I think also our acquisition of a bigger interest in the PPF.
Yes, important.
Is an important aspect. But I think the key thing here is that what we've done is accelerate a number of projects from what we had a year ago, and we've matured them to accelerate them. And really, it's a lot of things that drive this, not just you can't pick one or two things. It's multiple activities that drive this. And I think when you see the 40+ projects on the chart, I think you get the sense of that acceleration and the level of activity.
Really being the prime portfolio that makes the answer.
Carlo, do you want to deal with the allocation?
Yeah, with the allocation, of course. It's actually a good question. The way we worked out the outlook is basically based on, as Torger was mentioning, accelerating projects and projects at a very quick time to market. So going to your point, we have a leverage ratio that we're quite comfortable with. And investing more with a very short time to market is where we continue to reshuffle our capital to create more value and sustain the dividend while increasing the debt. So we don't want to, of course, increase the leverage. We have flexibility. We are well below our threshold, but we want to have a sustainable business over time. And the kind of portfolio that we have is exactly doing this. So it's addressing investments and very quick time to market to reshuffle capital and get the money back and sustaining the dividend.
Within the two things, we'll really go together: attractive returns over time and a reasonable and prudent leverage position.
If you think about it, if we keep building the resource base and investing into it, we don't need to reduce debt, actually. We just need to keep.
We can actually generate space for. But again, what is very important in this plan, probably answering some other question, is the quick time we can invest and get the funds back somewhat. This is really a peculiarity of our investment proposition.
Question from Teodor.
Teodor Sveen-Nilsen, SB 1 Markets. Thank you for a detailed presentation, as always. So two questions. Nick, you said that M&A is top on your mind. I just wonder if you could discuss type of assets or any particular asset characteristic areas that you are keen on. And second question, that is on balance sheet. By end Q4, you had like a 2% equity ratio, approximately $560 million equity, quarterly dividend of $300 million, and you earn around $100 million per quarter. So over time, unless, of course, oil and gas prices increase significantly, most likely equity will be lower. So the question is, are you willing to run the company with a negative book value of equity?
Good. That's two good questions. And I'll let Carlo take the second one in a moment. But in terms of A&D, I mean, this company has been created by putting four companies together and some other asset acquisitions. And we have the capacity and capability to do more. Now that we've delivered transformational growth, I think it's time to think about the next steps. We're not going to talk about the type of assets, but fundamentally, what we're looking at doing is acquiring opportunities where we can create a strategic for us, and we can do it at a price that we can create value. And we will maintain that discipline. But of course, we continue to look to build the business and grow it over time. And I think we have an ambition. We've set out more than 400,000 bbl a day long term.
We have an ambition to make that bigger and longer. I think we've got the capacity and capability to do it. But we'll, of course, not talk about specific opportunities or anything until we do them. Carlo, do you want to?
Oh, when it comes to the balance sheet, it's similar to the question also we had last year. As every company, we do an assessment, and we will not run into negative equity. It's not something that we are clearly considering. The dividends are predicated on the base of the expected profit generation. We are entering the year this year is going to be the highest production year. On the macro, it's going to be might be a bit soft, but let's see. Today's probably is a bit different. And the levers that we have, there are several levers to sustain it. What is important is to understand for the management is key to protect the dividend level. We're really committed to it. And there are levers that we can use in improving the business case or in optimizing our portfolio.
All these things will add on to our balance sheet. We strengthen the balance sheet to sustain the dividend. It's not a matter of negative equity. We won't run into negative equity, but we are confident that it's sustainable according to the profit we are going to generate.
I think just to stress this, I mean, the key focus of management, of course, is to run the business responsibly and deliver the targets that we've set. But its key focus is to deliver and protect dividends long term. And we will take thoughtful measures to manage that. And I think I'm confident we will manage this issue, Teodor. I think we have quite a number of options to do that. Of course, the first step is to generate the profit to cover it. But I think there's various levers we can use to manage this issue. And I'm confident we will deal with the challenge.
Next question from John, and then we'll take Victoria afterwards.
Yeah. Sorry for following up on the dividend side. But when you delivered Q3, you said comfortably you say you're very comfortable that you will keep dividends at $1.2 billion for 2026 too. And actually, I think you promised that. And now it seems like you abandoned the $1.2 billion. You're only guiding on the first quarter. So is that correct? And then I wonder, what kind of oil price do you need to sustain the $1.2 billion in dividend? And Carlo, you showed the chart on slide 68 where you show that you're cash neutral about $40. And the chart seems to imply that at $80, you have about $10 billion in free cash flow accumulated over the next seven years. If you divide them up by seven, that's about $1.4 billion per year.
So does that seem to indicate that you need almost $80 to have a free cash flow that supports the current dividend with a little bit of deleveraging?
Well, I'll take this. When it comes to the $5 billion-$10 billion and the $10 billion you just mentioned, I think you have to look at this on an over-the-plan basis. So it does not imply each single year is the same. Clearly, but as you mentioned, $80 is more than $1.2 billion. There is actually it's higher than that. And so it's not what? Sorry?
$1.4 billion.
Yeah, exactly. Exactly. It's more than that. So we're putting ourselves in a higher level. When it comes to what we said in Q3, which was $1.2 billion, and we said we are confident in $1.2 billion, we had a bit different environment. It was around $70. Clearly, there was a lot of discussion about what is going to be 2026. The assessment we did is driven from where we are now, not today, because today there is a lot of premium for geopolitical, and on this we can debate along what is going to be when it's going to remain or not. But what we see is a lot of volatility, really, a lot of significant volatility. Look at the gas price. You have ±10% on daily basis. It's extremely volatile.
The assessment we did was really to be a bit more on the prudent side and say, let's assess the business, how it's going. Let's assess how the macro is going, how the entire making the right choice for today and for tomorrow. Now we are confident. Q1, we have a visibility, $300 million. And Nick was mentioning it's top priority for the company and for the management to protect the dividend level. But that's what we include in our assessment on being guiding for quarterly basis, Q1, $300 million, and then keeping the 25%-30% guidance applicable for the following quarters.
Okay. Thank you. And my second question is regarding the long list of early-phase projects. Is it possible to highlight the two, three key important ones in terms of volume and value that we should keep an eye on, please?
Before we do that, I'd like to just cover a little bit more on this, I mean, on the dividend. I mean, the key focus of management is to deliver long-term attractive dividends to shareholders. I think it's quite simplistic to look at our projections on various oil prices because at low prices, the business can get better. I think we can make it better. I also think we have various options to do different things. I think the message we're trying to get across today is that we have a resilient business that's got lots of optionality and flexibility and that we can use that optionality and flexibility to create different outcomes. Fundamentally, we are focused on delivering long-term attractive dividends. We are concerned about the volatility and predictability of the market, which changes regularly.
And I think our investor base would want us to be prudent about how we think about that. And that's the approach we've taken at looking at this. And so we are guided for the first quarter, same run rate as for last year. And we haven't changed our long-term dividend guidance. It's 25%-30% of CFFO over the cycles. And our aim is to continue to deliver on that through the year, recognizing the uncertainty that's out there. And that's how we've chosen to manage this going forward. And I think, as I say, I think looking at our projections, they're a guide. The reality is if we have low prices for longer, we all make this business better. But I'm confident Torger showed a chart showing how we've changed the production chart outlook.
I am absolutely confident that when we come back next year, that's going to look even better. We're going to deliver even better projects. I think we can continue to create more of this. We've set things like $10 per barrel OpEx. I think we can drive that down further. I think we can continue to make this company much better. That's what will allow us to, long-term, deliver sustainable and attractive dividends. With that, Torger, you can figure out which are the projects to pick out.
Yeah, I know. But it is a bit of a repeat to the earlier question. I think number one is really the order of magnitude we have in this portfolio. It's fantastic. And we have been able to so it's this Mange bekker små in Norwegian, where a lot of smaller creeks make a big river, directly translated. So that is one. But then also, I talked about our hubs, that we actually have early-phase projects in the vicinity to all our operated hubs. I think that is really good. So then we're talking about Goliat. We are talking about Vidsyn and Fenja, which Luca talked about. We have the Gjøa subsea projects close to Gjøa. And then in the Balder area, we have the Balder Next, which is a really exciting project, which constitutes the Kinder Egg, as Oddgeir named it. Very good.
And then, of course, also, we mentioned the previous produced field, which is really an exciting project where you're actually restarting previous produced field from the late 1990s, which is going to give a lot of barrels. And then, of course, also, what we like is all this subsea tie-backs that is coming in and around Johan Castberg, where we talk about this 1 billion bbl and decades of production. So as you understand, impossible to really choose a few. It is the order of magnitude that is exciting. And also, I think what is exciting is actually that we improved the projects in execution from around 35 last year to around 30 this year. So I think that is something to follow.
Part of the nature is we're in 50% of the producing fields in Norway. We pretty well have investment activity into all of those. So it's sort of difficult to pick out any particular item in all of this.
Thank you.
Thank you. We've got the next question from Victoria, and then we'll do Amish afterwards.
Thanks very much, Victoria McCulloch at RBC. Firstly, on production, within slide 35 of your production, you show 3P reserves upside. Is any of that within your $2.5 billion-$2.7 billion CapEx forecast and the longer-term $2.5 billion guide that you've provided? And then a second question would be on the projects, the breakeven, I guess, has gone up from last year and from your projects underway from $35 a barrel to $35. Can you give us an understanding? Is that project mix? Is that inflation? How do you see that characterized in, I guess, the creep on breakeven?
Well, I didn't really get your second question because I think the story is opposite. But could you just repeat the second question?
Yeah. So on the slides, you show $30 a barrel breakeven for the projects underway, but $35 a barrel breakeven or less than $35 a barrel breakeven for the projects that you're looking to sanction in 2026. Have you seen inflation in the market or higher costs, or is it a project mix?
The projects that we sanctioned have a break-even around $30. So the projects in execution have a break-even around $30. Then the projects in the early phase, we see, on average, a break-even around $35. And that is what Nick just talked about, that we feel confident that we are going to work hard to improve. And I think that is also really the red thread true here is that all the projects that we have been working, we have been able to improve. And that is really true better solutions. We talked about the new ways of working and the solution. We are making more efficient concepts that get more barrels out of the ground for less, simply said. And that we are going to continue working. And so when Carlo showed the CapEx, this is not inflation-driven. This is activity-driven.
The fact that it is driven by our ability to improve the business cases, that means that you're actually pulling them to us and make them ready for sanction. So that's how we are working.
Maybe I could add to that. What we haven't done is change our targets, actually. A year ago, we said we want to do projects at less than $35 break-even. And we've been incredibly disciplined. In fact, we've recycled a number of projects to drive this down. And I think we've maintained a less than $35 break-even, but our focus is not that. It's much lower. And we've been able to do some projects quite a lot lower. And I think this environment will actually deflate some costs. And we're already seeing that and allow us to make our projects better.
Yeah. And then to your question about the 3C, those are not included. What's been covered in our CapEx is the development of the 2P and the 2C.
It was related to the 3P on the production schedule. Is any of that an upside that you could get without additional CapEx being added?
Yeah, that is really to utilize the potential and opportunities in the existing. So we have not allocated CapEx to that.
No, but we could, Victoria, get some of that. Pictures of better performance. So I mean, there's a bit of two things around this. Does it need more investment, but also can we get it for nothing, which is the nature of 3P resource a lot of the time?
Thanks.
[audio distortion] , in your impairment note in the quarterly report, you give the price assumptions which you use when you do impairment testing. And those prices are well above your price deck in the presentation material. So I was just wondering, why don't you use the same prices in your price deck in the presentation material as you do in your impairment testing? That's my first question. I would assume that's a reasonable assessment. Second question is on CapEx. Could you please provide some sort of guidance or indication what kind of investment you are incurring per, I don't know, 100 million bbl of resources developed? So we have some sort of figure to think about your CapEx going forward, given the mix of the portfolio. I presume it's low CapEx since it's a lot of tie-back, etc.
You have this?
Yeah, I can take the one for impairment that you mentioned, that I suppose you are referring to the, for example, $79 from 2028.
For instance.
Yeah. Just one consideration. Those are nominal, and what we are showing here is real terms. So the 75 we are showing in 2028 in the deck of the CMU has to be inflated at 2%, basically. So it won't be that different, honestly. It's just a bit different shape, but.
Well, aren't your figures in the presentation nominal figures?
No. Those are real terms.
Okay. So all the figures that you refer to when it comes to CFFO, etc., are real terms?
Those are nominal figures. $5 billion-$10 billion is nominal. We apply the deck that we have presented. This deck is just inflated with base inflation of 2%, as we have always done. The two figures we are looking at are actually quite similar on a nominal basis.
Okay. I can revert to that later. And the CapEx question?
Yeah, the CapEx question I'm still thinking on. No, I think it, at least on the, I think it will be difficult to give you a number, dollar per barrel such. What we communicated is the breakevens of our portfolio. And as we also said, we are staying very disciplined. That means that we are maintaining the sanctioned $35 internal rate of return above 25%. And we see for the projects in execution, as I said, around $30, and then for the early phase, around $35. And then also, of course, Carlo talked to the CapEx guidance going forward for being in the range of $2.5 billion post-2026. I think that is what we have to relate to in this regard. I think it's a bit difficult because it's various equity and all these kind of things.
But I think the message, and you had it right, because the subsea tie-backs, they are lower risk, they are standardized, and they are really, I would say, CapEx efficient. So it brings a lot of value per dollar invested. And also, as I think Carlo said a few times, really this short payback time and really also the short cycle time, which makes it very, I would say, cash-generative.
But you have depreciation in the low 20s per barrel. And if you spend, if you have breakeven of below $35, I would assume that you would push it further down in your communication if it was much lower. And an OpEx of $10, that kind of suggests CapEx of $20-$25 per barrel of new investments. Would that be fair?
Yeah, but I think you have to, I mean, you have to look at it slightly differently. I mean, all our tie-backs, all our developments are tie-backs. So they come with very low OpEx per barrel. They're not $10 or $3 per barrel.
I said, in my presentation, I said $3 per average in operation cost. So that is really the beauty with these projects. They are utilizing existing infrastructure. So really, it's very low incremental operational cost. And of course, also then low emission. That helps both on the, I would say, the operational cost and the tech side of things. So that is the beauty of these projects.
Okay. I won't take more time, but I'll revert.
Thank you. We're going to cover a couple of questions from the call before we round off with some final questions from the room. We have Naish Cui from Barclays on the line. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Ida. Hey, everyone. It's Naish Cui from Barclays. Thanks for the detailed presentation. Two questions, if that's okay. The first one, I want to ask about slide 35. I thought it's an interesting slide, but I wonder, could I ask which assets drive the quick production decline post-2030? And should we think roughly $2.5 billion is the CapEx you need to keep production flat? And then my second question is, it's nice to hear that you guys are adopting better technologies, including AI, to save costs and improve efficiency. Would you be able to quantify some of the impacts over there? And could there be any upside given how quickly that AI is evolving? Thank you.
Naish, good afternoon. Page 35 is the question you had to the first question. Maybe you could just repeat it.
Yes. Sorry, Nick. My question is, what drives the production decline after 2030? If I look at the dark blue section, there's a big sharp decline after 2030. I wonder, what's your assumption over there? And then it's $2.5 billion CapEx roughly as a run rate to keep production flat.
I think the way to look at this is that our investments start to run out at that point because what we've put in the hopper here is the development of two-thirds of our 2C Contingent Resources. And naturally, the activity starts to drop off. In reality, as we move forward, we've got quite a lot of discovered resource that we haven't put projects to. I would expect us to find ways to do that. And secondly, Luca is going to find us lots more oil and gas. And I would expect that we're going to create new projects as we've demonstrated. So the reality is this should get better over time. And I think we wanted to show you an outlook that shows where we can see today and where we see the certainty.
But the reality is our capital drops off at the end of this timeframe, and that's what drives that.
It is really the lead time, as Nick is saying. Also, as we said earlier, we don't include any exploration here. Talk about the technology and artificial intelligence. Number one, I think it's difficult to quantify a number. But we see significant the potential is immense. And that is also what we communicate or try to communicate, at least, is that we are setting very tough ambitions how we are going to drive improvements in our core business from subsurface drilling and well, production development, and operations. And really, where we see this is, what to say, skyrocketing or amplifying is when we are able to combine it.
We are seeing big results already on this particular and I think Guro, my favorite movie today, she showed it very well because in the Balder area where we have been producing for a long, long, long time, we are now able to combine the new seismic, the OBN, Ocean Bottom Node seismic with artificial intelligence. Then suddenly, we are able to develop more, for instance, infill wells. So this is really, I would say, paying off fast. And we see a big, big, big potential. And looking forward to coming back and talk more about and present more about this going forward and next year, for sure. But as I said, we want to be best on this. And we have big ambitions that we showed on the slide here. So more to come.
Perfect. Thank you very much, Nick. Thanks, Torger. Very clear.
Thank you. I've also got a question from Christian at Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Can you guys hear me okay?
Yes.
Yes.
Hi. Tianhong Bi from Citi. I've got a few questions, please. The first one is on your new production forecast. So in the past, you emphasized the phrase of organically sustaining production through 2030, but you've now used that wording this time. So should we assume that achieving the new 400,000- barrel per day production outlook now definitely requires some inorganic M&A? And in the medium term, it looks like you'll need contributions from the 3P volumes to bridge the gap to reach the 400,000- barrel per day. I understand these are largely linked to the upside in reservoir performance. Do you have any past success cases where 3P volumes have actually contributed? And lastly, I want to follow up on the book value of equity. You talked about balance sheet with sufficient free equity in the footnote. Is there a threshold level that you're required to maintain?
Given that your book equity is already running quite slim, can we assume from a modeling perspective that you may need to issue more hybrid capital to keep your book equity above a certain threshold? Thank you.
Maybe if I get the first one and Carlo does the second one. In terms of our production outlook, what we've set out there is continued production out of our 2P reserve base, which includes developed resource and the 13 projects in development. And it includes development of the 30 early phase projects that we set out, which are based on discovered resource. We don't need exploration to deliver that outlook. We don't need acquisitions to deliver that outlook. Those things would create more value and upside on that. But I look at the diversity of our portfolio, and I think there's opportunity and upside opportunity in many, many places. I think there's the opportunity for 3P reserves in some places.
I think there's opportunity to develop the other part of our 2C Contingent Resources, which are not included in the developed volume that we're looking at, which is about 2/3 of or 300 million bbl, close to of the 900 million bbl, which we can move forward. And I'm confident that we will generate more exploration opportunities. We've made six discoveries last year. One's already in production. One's already committed development. And the other four are moving in the right direction to be developed. And we would expect to continue to do that. And I think what you should expect is that over time, the trajectory that Torger showed is that we've been able to progressively show an improvement in the outlook for the company and organically grow resources, which is what we're based on. I think we can continue to do that over many years. And then.
Yeah. I think, w hen it comes to the hybrid you mentioned, so as we say, the dividends are predicated on the basis of the profit generation. They are predicated also on the basis of the levers, various levers that we have that we were discussing before. When it comes specifically to the hybrid, it is a tool to strengthen the balance sheet, which is available. You know that you already have issued one back in 2023. So we know the product. There is a very active market. So it's a tool that, again, is in the toolbox to be considered.
Thank you. I've got two more questions in writing. One from Matt Smith of Bank of America. Does the CapEx outlook already take into account the potential to reduce high project equity stakes?
The answer to that is no.
Yes, no.
If we sell some of our assets, then we would reduce the capital in the outlook.
It's based on equity as of today.
Correct. And then the question, second question from Vidar at Danske Bank. I believe you mentioned production hit 443,000 bbl on the 23rd of January, while it has averaged 423 in the first week of February. And from slide 25, it looks like you expect Q1 to average further below this. Could you provide some color on what drives the declining production through the latter part of Q1?
Well, I don't think we should call it a decline in production. It is really, I would say, there is, I would say, planned regularity on this installation that reflects the planned production as such. And of course, also, we have some startups that are coming in and add to this. So I think that what we have been showing and what we've been producing is very much in accordance to plan. But then, of course, you have some days when everything is ticking, which was the 23rd of January, that then show the potential as such when you have the, I would say, simultaneous uptime. And as I said, we are planning with our production efficiency. It's never 100% as such. So yeah.
Thank you. I've got one question from Steffen here, DNB. Thank you.
Yeah. Steffen Evjen from DNB Carnegie. Two questions on the Goliat gas export. Just wondered, since it's now 5% of your 2P reserves, when should we expect those gas exports to hit your volumes, your production? And what kind of revenues could we expect on your side from those volumes? And my second question is on the Jotun FPSO, the bottlenecking. There as well, how much more production capacity can you get out of that FPSO once that project is finished?
Do you want to get those, Torger?
Yeah, I will try. I just have to write down so I remember. The Goliat Gas is really, I would say, constituting of two, three elements. One, it's the gas, and then it's the, I would say, including the oil. So really, what that is going to help us with is that that is one, it's going to, I would say, be an exit for the gas. And that is also going to optimize the drainage strategy, meaning that we are able to produce more oil. So that is, of course, a value creation that we are going to realize immediately when that project is started up. And then it is the gas. And there we will have and that will go to Snøhvit. And there we will have a gas redelivery from Snøhvit when there is available capacity at Snøhvit. So really, it's two ways of monetizing this.
It's the additional oil and then following the improved drainage strategy. And then it's the gas when the gas capacity is available at Snøhvit. So yeah.
Just to follow up on that, isn't Snøhvit sort of at full capacity for quite some time?
Yeah. Yes, that's correct. Snøhvit have full capacity into the 2040s. So really, the value creation, the immediate value creation after startup here is related to the oil part. And then later, it's related to the gas part. But this is a good project. And as also Oddgeir said, it will be ready for sanction during this year.
I think it's worth saying this is quite a simple project. I mean, it's a very short pipeline length for us to connect this up. Then the other side of this is when we develop Goliat Ridge, we need to do something with the gas. We can't put it back into the reservoir. This is the cheapest way of dealing with that. So it not only is the project standalone on its own and create value, a good value, it's leveraging when we look at the Goliat Ridge development.
And then the Jotun de-bottlenecking. And that is also as it's really serving two or three purposes. One, it is about de-bottlenecking the gas and water capacity at Jotun. So that will then lead to two things, our ability to accelerate production that we can take more oil through the FPSO. And then secondly, which is having a big impact, is, of course, that we then can take Balder because then we don't need the capacity of Balder FPU. So we can take that to shore and then reduce the OpEx, reduce the emission. And also, as I would say, a benefit there is that we then are drilling new wells that is both draining the old remaining reserves related to the Balder FPU and then increasing the recovery in the area. So that is really the, I would say, the kinder egg as Oddgeir talked about there.
Okay. Thanks.
I think we have room for one more question from oh, yeah. Sorry. I couldn't see you there. Alejandra, JP Morgan.
Hi. Alejandra from JP Morgan. Given the higher investment level outlined today to support your stronger production outlook, where should we expect dividends to fall within the 25%-30% range in the near term? And my second question is on the $500 million cost reduction program you announced last year for 2025 and 2026. Could you update us on progress so far and how much of that benefit is now reflected in your cost and cash flow guidance?
Good. Carlo, you can go ahead.
Yeah. May I ask you to repeat, please, the first part of the question? If you don't mind, if you can repeat.
The first question?
Yeah, the first question, please, because.
Yeah. So where within the 25%-30% range should we expect the payouts in the near term given the higher investment level for your stronger production outlook?
Sure. Sure. I'll take it. We are confirming the 25%-30%. And actually, the increasing CapEx, again, is to be seen in the context of which CapEx, which kind of investment we are doing. We're doing investment at a very short time to market and very quick in terms of payback. So we are shuffling the capital very quickly. Every three years, basically, we start getting the money back, two to three years. And this is what is sustaining the dividend long term. And the 25%-30% then still works. So you have to put together, I believe, the elements that you have to consider are quick time to market, continued sustaining of profit and cash generation for the dividend. And at the same time, the leverage that, as we've shown, is well below where we want to be. We have a lot of flexibility.
You have seen also in the sensitivity we presented that even lower price, we still remain very well within. So there is ample flexibility when it comes to investing and sustaining the dividend. So there is no sort of contradiction or competition. It's actually an enhancing circle where you invest quick time to market, quick returns, and continue shuffling capital and cash generation. That's the model.
Then to the $500 million, I think we have really, I would say, met what we said. And I will try to explain it. We talked about exploration, and Luca did, that we are then there we are reducing the exploration expenditures. We were around $400 million for last year. We're $250 million-$300 million this year. And then for a longer term, around $200 million following the improvement and efficiency and the focus on quality. So that's one. I also talked about the OpEx where we are taking out $400 million over the period 2026-2030, which comes in addition to the Balder FPU to shore. And then comes the CapEx. And this is where it comes a little bit complicated because really, we have been able to improve all our projects. And that includes that we are improving the income side and reducing the cost side.
But that also means that we are able to move projects closer to us. So really, we've taken out a lot of costs, but you don't see it in the sense that we are, in a way, self-funding our projects. In addition to that comes also the previous produced fields where we increased our equity. So that is also coming in there. So all in all, we have been really prudent on taking down and out cost. But that is also meaning that we have an ability to improve and accelerate our value creation through the early phase projects and the projects that we're going to sanction this year.
Thank you.
Thank you. Any further questions? One here from Teodor. H ere at the front. Thank you.
Thank you. We saw high gas prices in January. Have you been able to take advantage of those, either selling gas at high prices or locking in some of the price? And if I may, one second question. What's the status of the balance in the gas pipeline?
Okay. I'll take the first.
Then I'll get the second, maybe.
As I said, we are doing some. Yes. We are, as usual, quite active when it comes to trading our gas. So 14% of our production has already been locked at $75. It's the result of the gas year ahead, previous year. We are taking some position, also leveraging on the high gas price that we saw in January. As you see, this is an example of the volatility. There has been a few days very high, then 10% less, then 5% up. So we are anyway taking active position already, locking some interesting sale and fixed price transaction. Yes.
And then on the balance in gas, I mean, I think everyone knows we spent some money together with others, Equinor and ACPP, exploring over recent years with the aim to try and move the understanding of the gas resource forward. I mean, it's clear there's a lot of gas there, but not quite enough or about half as much as enough needed to develop a new export route. And I think we've drilled a few wells last year. And then I think we need to sit back. We've got reduced activity there this year, but I think next year we'll have some more wells. And I think we just need to see how this progresses over time. It's clear today we don't have enough gas to develop an export route. But let's see where it progresses over time. And I think there's still some big prospects there.
We have one or two prospects that could in themselves be big enough. We need to work them up further.
Thank you. One final question here.
Excellent. Thank you. You said in the presentation that CapEx would be slightly higher in 2027 and 2028. And you give a figure from 2027 to 2032, which is a pretty long period. So could you give some more clarity on the 2027-2028 figure? Is it 50% above or 100% above?
No. It's not 100% above. Yeah. You can assume around 15%-20% above the average for a couple of years. It's still a preliminary figure. We are working on the plan. There are a number of activities.
Here's where me and the CFO is fighting a little bit because this is what as it stands today, slightly bigger. But of course, we are going to work to make things better. Maybe we will see it back to the numbers.
Yeah. But in the context of a CapEx phasing is really not that.
It's 10%-15%.
10%-15%.
I mean, it's really immaterial in the overall scheme of things, given the tax system here.
Thank you. That concludes the Q&A and the Capital Markets Update. Thank you all for joining, and we wish you a good rest of your day.