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Earnings Call: Q3 2015

Oct 30, 2015

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

Well, a really good morning to all of you. It's 9:00 A.M., let's start. Welcome to this quarterly presentation for Schibsted. As normal, Trond and I will do the presentation, also presenting from the company is the chairman of the board, and also representatives from senior management, which can help answer your questions. Overall, I would say that this is a good quarter for Schibsted, there are, of course, contrasts between our different business divisions. Whereas classifieds and the growth are both continuing to deliver well, there's no doubt that the media houses are facing a tougher economic climate as the digital transformation continues at full speed.

For the headlines for the classifieds, I'm happy to see a solid revenue development in the big countries in, I would say, middle and south of Europe, Spain, France, and Italy, where we're all market leaders, and they continue to do well. I can see that the traffic and the volumes in the joint ventures that we're having in emerging markets are developing well, and I can get more back to that a little bit later. We have, during this quarter, increased our stake in the native app Shpock, Austrian-based by some smart entrepreneurs. We're getting ready to roll that out also now in other markets. Of course, in September, we completed the share issue that strengthened our capital base with NOK 2.6 billion.

I'm happy that we're able to do that through the B shares because this allows us to pursue our strategy within, especially classifieds, with acquisitions and the structural agreements that we've seen have been beneficial for us in the last few years. Media houses, it's a tougher economic climate, no doubt about that. I think especially for the subscription-based newspapers. They're having to do two things at the same time. We're both investing in technology. We're trying to innovate new. Launching new products. Both when it comes to advertisement products, but also when it comes to strengthening the identity-based ecosystem strategy, delivering better products for our readers. Those were the highlights. This is the regular agenda.

I think we'll be able to go through it a bit quicker than we normally do today because there aren't any major news coming from us today. Of course, we'll be happy to answer questions you might have. Starting with the classifieds, you can see a handsome growth there on the top line with a 24% increase. That is, of course, partly affected by the fact that the Norwegian krone has depreciated against other currencies. Even if you adjust for that, the growth is around 17%, and you can see that all of the big markets that we're in, all where we're the big player, deliver good growth with the Southern Mid-Europe, but also good growth in decent growth, I would say, in Scandinavia.

Starting with leboncoin is an important company, not only for us, but also for France. I just talked to the GM there yesterday. He informed that the French Minister of Economic Affairs will very soon come and visit the company because he wanted to study more closely leboncoin and their role in the French society and also discuss relevant topics for the management there. The third quarter for leboncoin is a good one, with a top line growth of 20%. We can see that the good things that continue to deliver are important revenue drivers as cars and also the real estate part. Then leboncoin has been continuing to take market share in the display ad market.

What we're seeing going into the next quarter is that growth in display ads may soften a little bit. We're also seeing that the premium features for private persons, where they pay for better exposure, et cetera, is slowing down somewhat because of the transition from desktop to mobile. Looking ahead for leboncoin, you know, I'm very positive to the company. It's a very sound company, their business is very solid. If you look ahead for 2016, I think we'll see continued growth in real estate. We also have several new ad products in the pipeline. New devices for mobile that will help the premium features.

We're developing self-serve solutions for advertisers. The long-term growth prospects remain good and intact. That's why we're also saying that next year, I expect the revenue growth in the range between 15% and 20% for the full year. Because of the effects I mentioned, it might be relatively lower growth in the next quarter and possibly the first next year. It's a great company, it's sound business. I'm very optimistic for the long-term prospects for leboncoin. In Spain, it's been a good quarter. Revenue growth has gone up again there. It's the jobs really, which is on the back of the macroeconomic development contributing. Also real estate is doing well.

I would say also that I'm very happy about the team and the job they're doing there. In fact, all our sites are firing on their cylinders now and increasing their traffic. What we're seeing is that we're now looking actively on different brands there and see are we well-positioned going forward, should we do some additions, should we do some rebranding on some? It's a great vibrancy in Spain. Italy has gone through a redesign this quarter with a new logo and somewhat changed outlook. That has been received well. The traffic continues to do well. I think it's.

They are, of course, the leader in the private car markets and the traffic continues to go up. What is also what I also noticed last quarter is that they're really becoming a household name in Italy now with their top-of-mind awareness has gone up. In Scandinavia, both FINN and Blocket deliver good quarters. FINN is doing well in real estate. Of course, as we expect, there has been a decline in jobs volume that has so far been compensated by the improved price mix. We don't know, of course, how the job volumes will de-deliver for the next year. I think there's a lot of interesting activities going on also in FINN.

Yesterday, for instance, they had what they call the FINNovation Day, where all the programmers sit together and they develop new ideas that they are free to program, and then they presented and pitched it to each other today. This is all actually contributing to a good atmosphere and new growth initiatives in FINN. So good atmosphere there. Blocket is having a good quarter, and what's contributing well there is the new verticals. New verticals is, of course, jobs and real estate, and as well as professional also. I think Tom will during his presentation, give you an update on the situation in Hemnet. Right. Moving on. This is kind of short case study and what happens in the markets where we have done consolidation.

You can see four markets, Hungary, Morocco, Mexico and Brazil. This kind of goes to illustrate that what happens both with traffic, but also number of ads, they increase quite sharply. I think this demonstrates what we have been talking about in the previous quarterly presentations. When you do those kind of consolidations, it's not only good for us, but it's actually good for the consumers and the advertisers as they create much more liquid marketplaces. Here are the investment sites we're having. Here you can see the number of approved ads. It's a good growth in metrics. A boost. I think here the second quarter was extraordinarily strong, but the underlying trend is the same, and it's, yeah, and that's positive.

For those of you who tried out the native, app Shpock, it's an interesting experience, very user-friendly. It's been launched by some entrepreneurs in Austria, and we've been investor in that company for a long time. During the third quarter, we increased our stake to more than 90%. I would encourage you to try it out. It's... They are doing well in the markets that they're investing in, so Austria is their home market, but more notably in the big markets, Germany and U.K., they are now the clear leader within this niche. I think it's a good addition to our portfolio.

When we now have gained a majority of the company, more than 90%, we're in a position to expand the organization, and then we're ready to launch in some additional markets. Could be in markets we're already in, but also in some new markets. I think that concludes the classifieds. Moving on to the media houses, I would say there has been a tougher economic climate because the integration, the digital migration goes quickly, and that's affecting both paper, but also actually with more programmatic ad, the landscape is changing in terms of digital ads. Looking at VG and Aftonbladet , I think they deliver good results. If you look at VG, they that's normally the strongest quarter for them.

It's a good result also this quarter. You could see there that the revenues are somewhat down, but also the costs. VG is affected by programmatic advertisement, but we are also launching new ad products. We're launching now geo-targeting ads that we haven't had in Norway before. Aftonbladet has had it for a while and that has actually contributed to their more positive top line development. For VGTV, it's they're continuing to develop. I can tell you that yesterday was the record high, of course, with Justin Bieber in town. Much higher, much more than 1 million started streams there.

This has been a good quarter for VG when you look at the results. Of course, there is discussion about VG and cost picture, and I think it's fair to say that the way they look at it in VG, the management in VG, they're saying that, "Well, so far we've had good results. If these trends continue with a sharp decline of paper and also the somewhat tougher advertisement climate, then we need to do an adjustment of the cost base." That's what's taking place there. In Aftonbladet, I think they are the clear market leader in Sweden and also digitally.

They're also keeping close tab on their expenses, and they're continuing to invest in new media such as television. For the advertisement, for the subscription-based newspaper, it's a tougher environment these days. I think it's fair to say at the, especially on the West Coast, and that is of course structural, because you could see in Bergen and Stavanger, the advertisement market has been more affected than in other parts of the country. Hence the announcement yesterday in Bergen, where they have to adjust the cost base also in the editorial department.

You can see why, because the print advertisement revenues is going down, also the online advertisement revenue has been, well, I would say mostly flat during the years. Operating expenses has also been kept under close control, there's still a positive bottom line, and this varies of course in the newspaper. Aftenposten is delivering very positive result, whereas it's tougher in Bergen and Stavanger these days. There's a lot of positive activity going in there, and I'm actually proud of what I see when I see their product development. What's going well now, both in Aftenposten and in Bergen, is the very important sale of digital subscription.

VG and Aftonbladet, for them, the ad revenues will be the most important part in the digital world. For the subscription-based newspapers, the total subscription revenues will be important, and I'm happy to see that they actually increase. Both Bergen and Aftenposten has a positive rate when it comes to the how many new digital subscriptions they're selling. That was the media houses. The growth business in Sweden, I think they're developing positively. It's personal finance is a big thing for us. Lendo is delivering a good year, a strong third quarter. Also the international price comparison site, Prisjakt, is having good results. We're actually experimenting slowly now with launching Prisjakt in some other countries.

They're the market leader in Norway and Sweden, and we're experimenting with launches in some other European countries. Right. I think that was the most important part of the operations, and I'll leave the financial part to you, Trond.

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

Yeah, thank you, Rolv Erik. The third quarter this year, it's a solid quarter. We're happy to see that most of our business units continue to deliver. If you look at the explanation of the different drivers on EBITDA, you see that Norway is somewhat down, but they're having a good and tight cost control. The underlying result is better than the top line implies. Continuous growth in Sweden. France, of course, continue to deliver, and we have a good uptake in the real estate. That will first of all, have an effect in 2016, as is typically yearly contracts. Spain and other countries also continue to deliver good growth.

Looking at the P&L for third quarter, you see that we having an EBITDA of NOK 556, up from NOK 504. Continue to invest heavily, of course, in some of the classified market to grow. That is typically markets like Mexico, like investment in Shpock and others, which we think is a prosperous outlook. If you look then at the share of loss from the JVs, that's first of all, of course, then the organic investment I talked about, of NOK 110 million. We have other income, and of NOK 794.

What we have done in this quarter is that we have actually written up the investment in Shpock. We then shifted from a JV because we didn't have full control as it was founders that had that, but now we have full control, and we have to consolidate, and we own 92% of the company. As a result of that, we need then to consolidate it going forward and also appreciate the value which we think is actually ending up being a very favorable investment for Schibsted because we went into this company two, three years back. We have net financials, and we have some loss on Brazilian and Mexican currency, which is of course weakened during this quarter.

Looking then at what we have done in this quarter, I mean, we raised equity with B shares, and that was successfully done with oversubscription. It is, first of all, of course, to continue the growth and do online investments in online classifieds and bolt-on acquisitions. We have, I would say, a prudent and good and solid capacity for time being. We have also different M&A activities going on. We have the Hemnet acquisition, and there we are in good dialogue with first of all then the two owners membership organization, Mäklarsamfundet and Svensk Fastighetsförmedling, which is proceeding according to plan. We hope and expect this should be closed within a month or two.

We also have, of course, already a good dialogue with Swedbank, the 50% as we have had or always and been the situation. That continue as planned. Looking into other M&A activities, Spain is now sold, France the same, but pending in the competition authorities. We did the Anumex acquisition in Mexico in September. That is, to remind you, is a very strong position in two regions in Mexico. We also see a very good traffic growth in Mexico for time being, so that is promising. Of course, we increased our stake in Shpock, and we see also their strong development in countries like Germany and U.K.

We have still a stable and strong financial position, and with then also our debt maturity profile, that gives us many possibilities to continue the growth going forward. We will continue to invest in digital investments, and we have guided the market that total investment in 2015 will be 100 JVs as we now have moved Shpock from JV up to EBITA. The total will still be within the NOK 100 million as we guide the market. We continue to invest in web TV and other especially ad tech and product development, which is also continue at full speed.

Looking then at the financial figures, I think we have, then of course, taken down substantially the net debt, and at the same time, we have a good underlying cash flow in our company. The maintenance CapEx is more or less as before. The tax rate is still around 30%. Bear in mind that we don't account for the losses that we have in investment phase, due to prudent accounting policy. That sums up the finance, I give the word back to you, Rolv Erik, to go through the summary.

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

Thank you. I think I'll do that very briefly. It's really... For us, we're continuing our, to pursuing our strategy. I think we're on a steady course in the online classifieds field. I've gone through the operations, and I think we're seeing that will continue to be a good and interesting business for us. We're happy with the flexibility we have after the share issue. For the media houses, we'll continue to invest in online products, but of course have to adapt the cost base, and that's continuous efforts that are going on in all those media houses. I know you're working very hard. We'll continue to invest in product and tech in order to make better products both for users and advertisers.

I think that sums it up, our presentation today. We're happy to answer your questions, of course.

Sami Sarkamies
Director and Chief Analyst, Nordea Markets

Thank you. Sami Sarkamies, Nordea Markets. I have two questions regarding leboncoin. You had higher marketing expenses in the third quarter. If you were to adjust for those, how would the margins look against last year level? Are there reason for such a low growth rate next year? Thanks.

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

Well, I can answer the last questions, and perhaps you can take the first one, Trond. The last question is that what we're seeing is that some of the things where leboncoin is making money is slowing a little bit towards the end of this year. That's why I think we said in the material that we expect the growth to accelerate during next year. The 15%-20% will be an aggregate number.

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

When it comes to the marginal picture in Q3, it's right to say that we have had marketing campaigns that, of course, have taken down the margin in the quarter. At the same time, we also do build up then ramping up for new sales force within real estate and also new products to be launched. It's a combination. I think it's fair to say that we are positive and confident on the longer term of mid and longer term outlook in leboncoin . It's also right to say that we need to do some especially marketing campaign as ramping up the real estate now over these quarters.

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

More questions?

Markus Schulz
Global Head Financial Crimes Compliance Controls, SCB

Moving to Spain, Markus from SCB. Over the last few quarters, I think you had a stronger sales growth than revenue growth, so incoming positions and deferral model. Can you say something about how that looks now in terms of new listings coming in? It appears that you're running at a year high at the moment, on a seven-day basis.

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

I think the revenue growth this quarter was a little bit higher than last quarter. I think it's fair to say that, you know, it's a positive development still, but it's not like sales just continue to increase dramatically.

Markus Schulz
Global Head Financial Crimes Compliance Controls, SCB

No, it's.

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

Say it's a good underlying development, I would say, in the job segment, in the real estate, in motor. The macro situation is picking up in Spain. Spain is had a strong quarter, and you should also expect good development going forward.

Markus Schulz
Global Head Financial Crimes Compliance Controls, SCB

A follow-up on that. On the margins, they were very strong previous quarter and still holding up quite well into this quarter. In the previous quarter, you said that it was extraordinarily high, and that we should expect costs to come up again. How is that picture looking now?

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

Well, I mean, Spain is still just to remind you that we have integrated Milanuncios. We are of course looking into some further marketing campaign in different verticals. Also looking into some rebranding in Spain. All this, of course, we continue to invest in marketing and positioning, which we believe is the right thing to do going forward.

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

It's a question from the web. Yes?

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

Yes. We have a few questions from the web. just to follow up a little bit on France. can you say anything about market reception of our real estate offerings there? able to give any details on number of agents signed up, in real estate in France?

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

Are there more questions about leboncoin ? I think we'll put them all together.

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

I think that's pretty much, it summed up several questions, but most of them have been answered.

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

I think I'll ask Terje who's heading up SCM, to answer that. Please stand up, Terje.

Terje Seljeseth
Chief Product Officer, Schibsted

Yeah. In general, the sales in real estate is following our plans. I think that is the summary. Number of agents that we have as customers also.

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

I'll do a few more from the web now. Can you comment on the monetization development in Brazil?

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

Well, the monetization development looks positive. I think it's early days, but the things that we're doing on advertisement and premium features looks positive.

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

Then, on other established, which means Italy and a few other markets, can you comment on the growth rate there, which accelerated somewhat? Is this pure organic, or is it affected also by acquisitions, like Ireland in the numbers?

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

Terry, I think I'll ask for your help again here. Perhaps it's better if you remain up here.

Terje Seljeseth
Chief Product Officer, Schibsted

No, it's a bit influenced, by Ireland, but also good growth, especially in Italy, but also some other countries.

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

All right, two more questions here. Can you comment on the development of letgo in Europe? Also, have you been able to retain the management team of Shpock?

Terje Seljeseth
Chief Product Officer, Schibsted

Yeah. Letgo is launching all over the world, focusing on the U.S. We see them as one of several native app players that are launching all over the world for the time being. We don't see them as very strong in our markets. Next question was?

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

Well, I think it was the management team of Shpock. They are certainly on board. As you said, we have more than 90%, they still are substantial shareholders.

Terje Seljeseth
Chief Product Officer, Schibsted

Eager to launch in new markets, I would add.

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

Right. Are there other questions in the room here? Preben.

Preben Rasch-Olsen
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Preben Rasch-Olsen from Carnegie. Just to follow up on Brazil and Subito, given that you're seeing good progress in monetization, could we expect those countries?

EBITDA breakeven or even positive next year?

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

I think, well, for Italy, it's just a question. Italy has been positive previously. It's just a matter of how much we invest in marketing to take new positions. That's, you know, that's something we need to consider. For the Brazil territory, I think it's fair to say that that is absolutely on the positive track. I don't know if we've actually published when it's going to go in the black. It's a positive sign. It's not too far away.

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

One more question from the web. Can you comment on the M&A pipeline? Are there any countries that are particularly interesting for consolidation?

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

I think we don't comment specifically on the different countries. We have said in general that we would like to do in-market consolidation, meaning that we would like to strengthen the position in the countries that we already are in. It will typically then be bolt-on acquisitions in within the different verticals or generalists in these countries.

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

Yes. There's a question here.

Fredrik Steinslien
Equity Analyst, Pareto Securities

Hi there. Fredrik Steinslien from Pareto Securities. Two quick questions if I may. Can you just indicate what level of marketing spend you had in France and Sweden this quarter relative to next quarter and maybe also into 2016? Also you mentioned mobile impact on margins. Can you make some general remarks on that maybe in France?

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

Well, I think we don't give guidance on marketing spend per quarter. As I said previously, it's the real estate which, we think is right and also launching new products. Typically what we are doing is that we are launching a product for the mobile. I mean, we have, of course the change from desktop to mobile, and we will launch a new and better product also beginning of next year. All this requires, of course, a marketing effort. We think that's a wise and right thing to do.

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

We found out it's not such a good idea to pre-advise our competitors, when we're going to do the marketing campaign, so like to keep that in-house.

Bjørn Eckblad
Journalist, Dagens Næringsliv

Bjørn Eckblad, Dagens Næringsliv, Norway. Question about your partner Naspers. They just bought into the Russian classified market. Did you consider or were you offered to partner in that acquisition?

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

We don't comment on M&A things as you know, Bjørn. We've known that company for a long time, we have not operated in Russia.

Trond Berger
CFO, Schibsted

Also Naspers, they had already a stake in Avito, so that partly explains. They have always said that they would like to have control in that company.

Rolv Erik Ryssdal
CEO, Schibsted

Right. Are there further questions? There's going to be an telephone conference for those interested in the afternoon. Then I would like to thank you for the attendance and have a good day. Thank you.

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