Background and what you do here, and how you came to FiscalNote?
Yes. Hi, I'm Can. I'm the Chief Product Officer at FiscalNote, and I've been involved with building products for the past two decades. As a startup founder, I've had some minor exits myself, and as an executive, I was the Head of Product for Casetext. We built the first vertical AI product for the legal sector and in 2023, we were acquired by Thomson Reuters for a much bigger sum than my exits as a founder myself. Then I stayed at Thomson Reuters for a while and joined FiscalNote to help FiscalNote with its product development, mostly AI-based product development, but product development in general.
Great. Thanks, Can. So, well, you can see why we're so excited to be working with Laila and Randy as we go to market in this space, and I've spoken a lot in other contexts about what an impact Can has had on FiscalNote, and not just the quality of the products, but the speed with which we launch and iterate, which is something that I'm sure he'll speak to today. So before we dive into the conversation, I do just want to add a little context into how this expansion aligns with FiscalNote's core strategy, and why we view this market as something that's attractive for us as an opportunity.
What it boils down to is that the way people consume, evaluate, and act on information is changing very rapidly, and we view that shift as an opportunity because it's opening up new markets and use cases for what we do best. FiscalNote's assets are valuable and differentiated enough that we have a meaningful role to play in emerging opportunities like this and we start with a very strong foundation. We already work with thousands of policy professionals and organizations whose decisions have real-world consequences. Their work relies on our proprietary mix of data and analysis, deep domain expertise, and years of experience in operating in environments where accuracy, credibility, and trust are paramount and those assets are really difficult to replicate, and they give us confidence as we extend into new markets and new ways of delivering insights.
Our expansion into political prediction markets is a natural extension of that foundation. In many ways, it's an evolution of what we've been doing for years. We've been identifying key political and policy issues, applying our data and our human expertise to anticipate outcomes, and helping our audience understand what those outcomes mean once events unfold. Prediction markets represent just another endpoint where that same blend of data analysis and expertise can be valuable and engaging. It's important to understand where these markets stand. They're not experimental anymore. There's a meaningful capital is flowing into them. There's more and more attention around political and policy outcomes, and it's just emerging as an important new category for new insights.
Yet at the same time, the market still is early and underdeveloped, which makes this an attractive time for us to enter. Looking ahead, there's opportunity for these markets to extend from, primarily retail use cases that exist today towards broader institutional relevance. We're already seeing, integration of, prediction market data into professional workflows, growing interest in using these markets to hedge policy, regulatory, and macro risks, and these are things that traditional markets sometimes struggle to price. So there's opportunity in that as well. We believe we can add particular value, by applying our domain expertise to market creation, design, and resolution, all of which are essential to expanding participation, reducing friction, and building confidence in market outcomes.
Overall, we see this as an entire ecosystem that's cropping up with opportunities for complementary products, like research and insight tools built around this, that can help users make more informed decisions. Again, this is something we'll speak about more today. Last thing is, a natural question is, how do we, as FiscalNote, get into it, reach a broader audience, et c? Partnerships are a key part of that, so that's why we're so excited to work with Laila and 365 Prediction, where we can leverage existing market infrastructure and complementary capabilities, and benefit from, that type of experience and at the same time, we're not starting from scratch.
We already serve thousands of organizations and policy professionals who trust our data and analysis, and we see compelling ways to engage that audience in these new experiences. So this isn't just about a single product or a short-term headline. It's about how we're taking our proven assets and applying them to build differentiated, durable businesses as the market evolves. S o with that context, let's go ahead and dive in because it's most important that you all hear from our panelists today. So, Laila and Randy, let's start with you. When you think about the market, what's driving the acceleration in prediction markets globally, and what's structurally different today versus, you know, three, five years ago? Laila, why don't we start with you?
Thanks, Josh. Yes, prediction markets have seen explosive growth over the last years, with global trading volume surging and annual volumes in the U.S. hitting over $44 billion in 2025 alone. If we compare that to a few years ago, it's just a tremendous growth. In the U.S., reported numbers, as I said, are around $44 billion in volume, and that represents basically a 400% year-over-year growth. Political markets, election, and non-election markets account for around $7.2 billion in 2025, and we will see that volume grow in this year and the coming years for sure. We see basically 2.5 times more open interest in the prediction market space than we even see in the sports space. Sports prediction market on platforms like Kalshi, for example.
The major catalysts for this extreme growth include high-profile events like the 2024 U.S. election. I think we have all seen, like, what tremendous interest that you know had in the market for the prediction companies. I t also confirms the interest in general for people in the outcome of political events. That shows that there's a significant market for those types of contracts and when we look back and see what has changed over the last couple of years, back then, let's say five years back, we had, like, very fragmented market. They were very crypto-dominated with low liquidity, and they were very limited in the products that you had seen, like very basic event contracts, and there was no institutional involvement. So, very importantly, from my perspective as well, are the regulations.
When you see, like, the CFTC withdraw in 2024 the ban on political and sports events, that really enabled the growth that we see today, especially since this year of the year, the start of the year, we have seen, like, a very positive signal from the CFTC Chair and leadership, and it's a totally different market today in comparison what we had years ago. So the signals are basically supportive of prediction market contracts for politics and sports. O ver the last 12-24 months, companies like Polymarket and Kalshi have entered the market, and a few more. W e have even seen sports betting operators like DraftKings and FanDuel getting into the prediction market space, returning their licenses, for example, in Nevada. All signals point in the direction that prediction markets are here to stay, and that they present enormous growth that we all wanna benefit from.
Great. Thank you, Laila and, Randy, do you want to add to that?
Yeah, I think it's worth noting that a lot of the current views around prediction markets come from the interlap or overlap with sports betting and I think it's important, while that is the subject of a lot of conversation and a lot of litigation, and it's also a lot of the volume, I think it ignores that prediction markets started for a different purpose, and sports betting just happens to be something that was in the way or along the way. You know, the origins of prediction markets were, you know, actually an experiment at the University of Iowa and it was to answer the question: Would buying... Would establishing a market that allowed people to buy and sell shares of political candidates provide better insight into potential outcomes than opinion polling? That was the original idea.
The CFTC allowed them to, to kind of do a commercial version, but was solely to test that proposition. So when you fast-forward, the prediction markets that are here today, I mean, you know, obviously, interest in the 2024 election was gigantic. You can see the volumes growing very significantly around sports betting, and Kalshi and Polymarkets have outperformed all of the legal sports betting operators on events like Super Bowl Sunday. Which is also a reflection that sports betting is not legal in all 50 states, and there are some very large states, California and Texas, for example, where there is no legal sports betting. So a product like a prediction market that offers the opportunity to trade contracts around sports is obviously going to fit some market demand.
So that the background is, you know, providing data. That really was the point of prediction markets, was providing superior data so that people could allocate risk around potential outcomes and we're all familiar with the CFTC and markets around commodities, and at some level, this is intended to be the same.
Great. Thanks, Randy and, I want to ask a question to you about, specifically, our entry into this market, right? So we understand it's, it's now here, it's now growing, and this actually relates to a question that was submitted by one of our attendees, today. But Laila, you have, an extensive amount of experience in this space. You have a platform you've been building, you know, a lot of ways that you can think about going to market. So this is really a two-part question. So in, in your mind, what makes, FiscalNote uniquely positioned, to win here, and, and how do you see, FiscalNote as bringing a, a defensible edge?
Then on the other side, how do you think about 365 Prediction in your entry into this market, and how to, how to differentiate and grow, you know, in this market and differentiate from others in market today?
. Yeah, absolutely. So, political prediction markets are often attracting much higher capital than when, than what we see in the sports, event contracts. So higher capital means higher liquidity, so it's super interesting why many people say sports is leading. I think you have to, like, mention that politics and sports are probably the two main driver in the whole prediction market space. In comparison to sports, political focus traders participate less because there are generally less, election events that you can place contracts on in comparison to sports events, which are just from an amount higher. But the amounts that are basically placed on those contracts are way higher in the political prediction space, and I think that positions us in a very interesting space here.
So coming back to FiscalNote, I think why my team at 365Prediction has most of our team members, including myself, have 20+ years experience in the iGaming space. So we know how sports betting works, how you acquire customers in that world, and that's why we started basically creating 365Prediction, because sitting back on the sidelines and watching the market was not an option for us. We want to play in this market. We want to capitalize in this market. What FiscalNote brings to the table from our perspective is that deep knowledge and unmatched experience on the political prediction market space and I think combined, that really, the, we can really develop a product that's one of its kind, that closes the gaps that we currently see in the market.
Because, existing players, they were similar to sports betting in 2018 when the market got legalized in some of the states. We saw, like, this rush to market, but, the products are far away from being perfect, especially looking at that from a sports betting and iGaming perspective, there's so much things that can get improved over time, and we're here to close that gap. So we bring different capabilities to the market. Our technology is very AI-driven, very innovative, so I think there's a lot of alignment with FiscalNote and, I think together we can, combine your or FiscalNote's, domain expertise and, with our expertise, is very complementary, and then really get into the market with a differentiating product that doesn't exist as of today.
Great. Thank you, Laila and, Randy, you've seen, you know, you've been in this business and similar fields for a while. You've seen a lot of models apply across the board. So how do you think about, you know, this fitting within the context of the different models and approaches you've seen? And, I'll add to that, just the importance of some of the things Laila touched on in terms of the credibility, the ability to design the markets well, and things like that.
Yeah. So, I mean, obviously, starting with that, part of the criticism of prediction markets, I think, go to market design and allowing things like anonymous trading and, you know, anonymous settlement of trades. So that makes enforcement a relatively difficult proposition. I think that successful market making will involve successful guidelines and successful enforcement activities and I think, you know, if you look in the world of sports, a couple of leagues have already done deals with prediction market providers, primarily so they can have influence over the kinds of contracts that are going to be offered in connection with their games.
So they can help design that market, because having a market that has integrity and that has transparent enforcement is obviously very, very important and I think on the topic of enforcement, the CFTC, as Dr. Mintas, touched on a few minutes ago, has made it very clear which direction the train is probably going.
They've withdrawn the 2024 rule that would have prohibited contracts on sports events and prediction and political events. They withdrew the 2025 staff advisory on sports contracts. It looks like they will be initiating a rulemaking soon, specifically on the topic of these sorts of, specifically sports contracts. The chairman wrote an editorial in The Wall Street Journal saying that they're going to push forward on this, and then just, I think yesterday, they filed an amicus brief in the Ninth Circuit in connection with the Nevada sports betting litigation. So I think the CFTC has made it clear that they intend to regulate this, and that they intend to push forward with these kinds of contracts.
Great, thanks. I do wanna give Can a chance to talk a bit about our product vision and where we're going. So, Can, as you think about the table that's been set here with the opportunity here in the markets, the opening up of the potential opening up of the regulatory regime, and the ability to partner with 365Prediction, how initially do you think about FiscalNote's entry, and the types of experiences that we might be able to create?
Yeah, sure. So when I think about FiscalNote essentially, like, the first goal when we're building these products is to address some of the main concerns surrounding prediction markets that people have. We want to address the main concerns of people already participating in these markets, so we can capture existing market share and we also want to address the concerns of people who will be first time participants in these markets, so we can grow the town. For existing participants, Dr. Mintas, Randall, you all alluded to credibility and trust and we, as everyone has mentioned previously, we are uniquely positioned to provide the credibility and trust in our market creation, as well as resolving markets.
As an example, there was a big market recently: Will Trump invade Venezuela? The outcome is, if you will, ambiguous. The invasion happened, not happened, that's... It's ambiguous, and it will lead to delayed payouts, legal uncertainty. It's not good for the participants, not good for the business. Our expertise in human expertise in politics, as well as Dr. Mintas's expertise, Randall's expertise, uniquely positions us to be better at market creation and market resolving than the existing players out there. For non-participants, the first time participants, the main barrier is ethical concerns, if you will.
A number of policy insiders we talked to, who we're targeting as early adopters, said: "Yes, I am more likely to predict the correct outcome here, but it does not feel right to be betting on these things." So the operative word here is betting. While this perception is understandable, we believe political prediction markets can be positioned as something more constructive. Randall alluded to how sports markets first came about and how it could be a better outcome predictor than the existing approaches. Here, we believe political prediction markets could be a tool to raise awareness and fundraise for advocacy organizations. Take an issue like social media controls for minors. Advocacy groups on both sides, parents, organizations who want more controls, and online freedom groups, are already working to influence the outcome here.
We envision them sponsoring these related markets, presenting their case as to why a particular outcome is more beneficial for society, and participants being able to not only trade, but also donate a portion of their trade value or their winnings to an organization that they choose from these two sponsors. We believe this approach helps us address these ethical concerns by making it just more than making predictions and winning money, but also raising awareness and raising funds for the causes you believe in, and incentivizes advocacy groups to promote the markets they sponsor, creating a new distribution channel for us. Well, not more importantly, but also it's important to note here that we already have a number of existing relationships with thousands of advocacy organizations through our VoterVoice, PolicyNote, CQ, and other products.
So we already have the relationships here, and I think we can create a differentiated experience for the participants, addressing both concerns of existing participants and first-time participants, capturing market share, and also growing the total available market of political prediction markets.
Great. Thanks, Can.
Yeah.
Sorry, go ahead.
Yeah, no, that, that's it.
Okay, that's good and we only have a couple minutes remaining. I know it's a relatively short session, but how... One other question is, you know, how do you think about the innovation and experimentation here, especially as you speak to being able to launch multiple products into this ecosystem? So what are some of the things that people should expect to see in regards to some of the innovation and launch in the coming months?
Yeah, sure. So the first thing that we are planning to launch is the equivalent of tip sheets, if you will. We don't need to have our own platform to be a tip sheet, tip sheet provider, if you will. But we have all the necessary things to be necessary components to be able to provide the correct tips. We, through our PolicyNote service, we already have our AI assistant, which provides you the likelihood of certain bills to pass and other events to happen and we have the human expertise to provide their opinion on whether certain things are likely or unlikely to happen. So we'd like to turn that into a subscription service that both retail investors and institutional investors can subscribe to to improve their likelihood of making the correct trades.
Second, people alluded to the regulatory environment relaxing around prediction markets. But we'd like to start learning faster and the regulatory environment around, quote, unquote, "Fantasy Leagues" is even more relaxed than prediction markets. So we'd like to create fantasy leagues around these political outcomes, not just prediction markets. That's gonna be the second experiment we're going to be running and that's gonna allow us to launch faster, without any regulatory, without waiting for the regulatory environment to catch up and earnings we want around, involving advocacy organizations and seeing how people react to that approach and finally, prediction markets will follow based on our learnings and as well as the regulatory process.
So thanks, Can and we only have a minute remaining, so and we do have a number of questions we got in through Q&A. So I'll say this, we did get a number of questions related to some of the details behind the partnership here and path to market, and we'll provide answers around that in the coming weeks around some of the specifics there as we think about the go-to market. We also did get a question about, is this a for FiscalNote, is this a pivot away from the rest of our business, from our core business? So I do just want to address that briefly, which is, it's not.
You know, as I mentioned at the start, this is about an extension, where we have the opportunity to leverage the strengths and the assets that we have, the data, the insights, the customer base, the domain expertise, and really leverage those assets, in as many markets and areas and endpoints as makes sense. So just like, we're very focused on the progress that we've made with PolicyNote and creating a very strong experience and engaging experience for our customers there, we also provide our data to customers through APIs, where they want to consume in their own platforms and customer experiences and we have more to come on how we're expanding that piece of business as well. Then prediction markets and the like is another further extension of that.
So it's not a pivot away from the core, but it's just new opportunities for us as we see those opportunities develop in the market. So thanks, everyone, for joining today. Thanks for your engagement. Thank you, Laila, Randy, and Can. This was really great, and as I said before, I know this was a short session. There's a lot of information, and more to come, and we look forward to continuing to engage with everyone on this in the coming weeks and months. So thank you very much.