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Earnings Call: Q3 2024

Oct 24, 2024

Operator

Hello, and welcome to Vodafone. Please note that this call is being recorded. You will have the opportunity to ask questions to our speakers later on during the Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question by that time, please press star one on your telephone keypad. I would like to hand over the call to our moderator, Bobby Sarkar. Bobby, please go ahead.

Bobby Sarkar
Head of Research, QNB Financial Services

Thank you, Mark. Hi. Hello, everyone. This is Bobby Sarkar, Head of Research at QNB Financial Services. I wanted to welcome everyone to Vodafone Qatar's third quarter and nine months 2024 results conference call, so on this call from Vodafone Qatar management, we have Masroor Anjum, who is the CFO, and Pauline Saab, who is the Head of Investor Relations. As usual, we will conduct this conference with management first reviewing the company's results, followed by a Q&A. I would now like to turn the call over to Pauline. Please, Pauline, go ahead.

Pauline Saab
Head of Investor Relations, Vodafone Qatar

Thank you, Bobby. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Vodafone Qatar Financial Results Call. Before we begin, I would like to apologize on behalf of Sheikh Hamad Abdulla Jassim Al Thani, our Chief Executive Officer, who is unable to join us today. Masroor Anjum, our Chief Financial Officer, will be presenting the financial and operational performance highlights on his behalf. Today's presentation is accessible on our website at vodafone.qa, with the usual disclaimer on slide number two. So to begin, I now hand over to Masroor.

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Yes. Thank you, Pauline. Thank you, Bobby, and thank you, QNB, for organizing this conference. Good afternoon, everyone. It's my pleasure to welcome you to our quarterly analyst call for Q3 2024 . Let's jump to the key messages on slide number four. I am pleased to report that the positive momentum we have built in recent quarters has continued to strengthen, driving solid growth in both revenue and profitability during the first nine months of 2024 . Despite a challenging market environment, our strong execution and disciplined focus on key performance metrics have been pivotal in achieving these results. Our top line continues to expand, allowing us to consistently improve profitability and margins. As of Q3 year-to-date, our net profit margin has surpassed 18%, and our underlying EBITDA margin is approaching 47%. These figures underscore our ability to balance growth with operational efficiency.

Secondly, I want to emphasize that this performance comes despite the headwinds in the market. We have made significant strides in our revenue market share, which has increased by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 30.7% in Q2 FY 2024 on a trailing twelve-month basis. This marks our twelfth consecutive quarter of RMS gain, highlighting the effectiveness of our disciplined market execution. In addition to these financial achievements, I want to highlight our continued innovation in delivering products and features that enhance the customer experience, an area of focus for us. Recently, we launched the Instant SIM solution, enabling customers to activate their lines in seconds with the flexibility of choosing between postpaid and prepaid, using both physical SIM or eSIM options. We also introduced our new postpaid portfolio, bringing several features to the market for the first time.

The positive customer response to these offerings reassures us that we are on the right track with our value-driven product roadmap. Lastly, as we continue to enhance our core telecom services, we are also positioning ourselves for future growth through advanced technologies. This involves two key areas: One, improving our operational efficiency by becoming a more digital and streamlined organization, and expanding into non-core technology solutions for both consumers as well as businesses. Our recent partnership with Microsoft is a critical step in this direction, supporting both our internal digital transformation and a broader strategy to diversify and explore new growth opportunities. Now, let's move to next slide, and let's take a very quick look at the key features of our new postpaid plans. Our new postpaid portfolio consists of Postpaid+ for mid-value segment and Unlimited+ for the high-value segment.

Both categories of plans offer a range of lifestyle benefits in addition to core telecom services. With this launch, we are proud to drive innovation forward by introducing features and benefits never seen before in Qatar. On the telecom services side, we are proud to be the first provider in Qatar to introduce dedicated social media apps data for postpaid customers. This allows customers to use popular platforms like Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, and TikTok without any restrictions. We have also introduced features tailored to specific customer needs, including multi-SIM, Music s ervices, and international call block, and lastly, we have launched our new program for Unlimited+ customers named iPass. This offers access to exclusive experiences across five different categories. Together, these offerings deliver the best telecom and lifestyle experience for both mid-value and high-value segments. I will now move to detailed financial review slides.

Let's start the financial review with key financial performance highlights on slide number seven. Our commitment to enhancing customer experience and delivering value has driven a robust financial performance with top-line growth of 3.9%. This growth is underpinned by a 2.8% increase in service revenue, highlighting expansion across our mobile, fixed, and wholesale segments. In addition, our ongoing emphasis on cost optimization has been critical in supporting our overall success. This strategic focus has enabled us to continue investing in network expansion and achieving revenue growth while consistently improving operational efficiency. We are pleased to report a sustained reduction in OpEx intensity, which reached 23.3% for the nine months period ended September 30, 2024. Sustained top line growth, coupled with our commitment to efficiency, has translated into exceptional profitability.

We have surpassed QAR 1 billion in absolute EBITDA for the first time in the nine months period, achieving a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. Net profit for the period stands at QAR 437 million, representing a solid year-on-year growth of 11.5%. Lastly, our financial strength remains evident through our robust liquidity position. Operating cash flow reached QAR 453 million, marking a 20% year-on-year increase on an underlying basis. This achievement is a direct result of our effective collection strategies and successful working capital optimization initiatives. Now let's turn our attention to slide number eight. This slide showcases our key financial performance metrics for the nine months period compared to the same period of last year. Total revenue increased by QAR 89 million, reflecting a strong year-on-year growth of 3.9%.

This growth was primarily driven by a 2.8% rise in service revenue, with all business segments contributing positively. Despite higher revenue and ongoing network expansion, we have effectively maintained stable expenses, underscoring the success of our cost optimization initiatives. Year-on-year increase in direct cost is directly attributable to higher equipment cost corresponding to higher equipment revenue. Excluding equipment costs, direct costs have declined year on year. With increased service revenue and disciplined cost management, EBITDA grew by an impressive 6.4% year-on-year, leading to a margin expansion of one percentage point, reaching 42.3%. This solid performance translated into robust net profit growth of 11.5%, reaching QAR 437 million.

Let's now turn to slide number nine, which talks about our key financial performance metrics for the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period of last year. The growth momentum we experienced in the first half of the year continued very strongly in Q3 as well. Total revenue increased by 7.3% year-on-year, driven primarily by a 2.8% rise in service revenue. This growth was supported by positive contributions across all service revenue segments, including prepaid, postpaid, managed services, and fixed. Increase in equipment revenue this quarter is primarily attributable to the recognition of non-recurring project revenue amounting to QAR 34 million. Expenses increased by 7.2%, mainly due to higher direct costs associated with the non-recurring project revenue recognized during this quarter. Excluding this impact, direct costs have decreased year on year.

The combination of higher service revenue and disciplined cost management resulted in a robust 7.3% year-on-year increase in EBITDA, with a margin of 42.3% for the quarter. This strong financial performance translated into 8.8% growth in quarterly net profit, reaching QAR 144 million for the current quarter. Now, taking a closer look at service revenue on slide 10. As I mentioned before, all our service revenue segments continue to show positive growth year on year. Starting with postpaid. In postpaid segment, our efforts this year have been centered on upgrading our customer base and minimizing discounted offerings to existing customers. This strategy has led to a notable 3.9% improvement in postpaid ARPU year on year and an enhanced margin.

However, this effort has led to consolidation and post to pre movement, resulting in reduction in postpaid base in the short run. This, along with the fact that in Q1 last year, we still had the impact of World Cup related contracts, resulted in muted postpaid revenue performance year on year. As I mentioned earlier, during this quarter, we revamped our postpaid product portfolio with enriched Unlimited+ and Postpaid+ plans. The initial response to these plans is really encouraging. In the enterprise segment, we continue to encounter aggressive price competition. While we recognize the potential for improved market discipline, we remain selective in responding to competitive offers, ensuring we maintain our overall competitiveness without compromising on value or long-term strategy. Talking about prepaid. Prepaid revenue has recorded a growth of 2% year on year, after declining by close to 11.5% last year.

As mentioned before, we have seen a noticeable reduction in market pricing aggression in prepaid segment by customers receiving good value but at a reasonable price. As a result, prepaid ARPU has recorded an impressive growth of 4.5% year on year. However, this shift has led to consolidation in the market and attrition of ultra-low-value subscribers. Overall, prepaid revenue has not only stabilized, but has also started to grow, which is really encouraging. Managed services, wholesale, and fixed revenues are the primary service revenue growth drivers, registering an increase of 6.2%. Wholesale business, including inbound roaming visitors revenue, recorded impressive growth, reflecting increase in number of visitors, and our commitment to expand our fiber network is paying off. We are adding new customers nationwide, which has led to a steady increase in our fixed broadband revenue.

It's worth highlighting that consumer fixed broadband market has also seen a reduction in intensity of discounted offerings at starting price points towards the end of Q2. This has also started to impact our fixed ARPU and margins. Turning our attention to slide number 11, let's analyze the efficiency and profitability margin trends. Our focus on operational efficiency has yielded positive results. As shown in the first graph, our OpEx intensity continues to decline despite growth in our mobile and fixed networks. We have achieved a further 0.4 percentage point reduction in OpEx intensity compared to FY 2023. Onto the graph in the center, we see EBITDA margin. Growth in service revenue, coupled with focus on cost optimization, continue to drive margin expansion. We achieved a reported EBITDA margin of 42.3%, registering one percentage point improvement over FY 2023.

Notably, EBITDA margin, excluding equipment business, shows a significant increase of one point six percentage points compared to last year. The final graph illustrates our outstanding performance and net profit margin. It has increased by another one percentage point compared to FY 2023, reaching 18.3%. This achievement is a direct result of sustained strength and ongoing improvement in our EBITDA margins. Turning our attention to slide number 12 now, and let's take a closer look at CapEx and return on capital employed. Our CapEx for the period stands at QAR 178 million, reflecting an intensity of 7.4%. We have taken a very disciplined approach to capital allocation, carefully selecting projects that meet our stringent investment criteria for targeted ROI.

While CapEx has trended lower this year compared to previous years, we anticipate a catch-up in Q4, with total CapEx investments remaining within the target range outlined in our external guidance. Our relentless pursuit of growth and profitability has paid off, as demonstrated by the substantial improvement in our return on capital employed. Compared to FY 2023, our return on capital employed has increased by another 0.7 percentage points to 11.3% on an annualized basis. This translates to a remarkable growth in returns over the past four to five years. Now, coming to cash flow and net debt on slide number 13. As discussed in previous quarters, working capital management has been a major area of focus because of high market interest rates. The first chart represents operating cash flow, net of capital expenditure, taxes, and lease payments.

Operating cash flow has registered impressive year-on-year growth of 20%, excluding the impact of last year's World Cup and one-off collections. This achievement is a testament to our company-wide initiatives focused on optimizing cash flow and working capital management. As a result, our net debt has reduced year-on-year by 31%, even with an increase in dividend payouts, and net debt to EBITDA ratio has improved from 0.38 times to 0.25 times, well below the financing covenant of 2.5 times of EBITDA. Turning to statutory income statement, slide number 14. We have already covered major year-on-year movements. Both consumer and enterprise and other revenue increased year-on-year. Notably, this quarter, we also had a one-off accelerated depreciation on few assets which are subject to modernization, and the impact is QAR 7 million for this quarter.

Decrease in financing cost reflects the impact of optimized borrowing despite impact of higher interest rates. Lastly, EPS has also increased in line with the net profit. To sum up my presentation today, let's look at the five-year trend view of our key financial performance indicators on slide number fifteen. Our top line growth continues despite the market slowdown and pricing attrition we talked about earlier. Over the last five years, our top line has registered a very impressive compound annual growth rate of 9% in service revenue and 10.3% in total revenue, underscoring our ability to navigate challenges and sustain robust growth in our revenue. Importantly, while expenses have increased, they have consistently remained lower than the growth in our top line. This strategic balance has resulted in substantial profitability growth.

EBITDA has seen an impressive CAGR of 14.3%, and net profit has soared with an extraordinary CAGR of 36.3%. These results underscore our strategic focus on sustainable growth, operational efficiency, prudent financial management. As we continue to navigate challenges and capitalize on opportunities, we remain committed to delivering value to our shareholders. Lastly, on full-year guidance on slide number 16, there are no changes to what we discussed in H1. We are tracking well to deliver on our guidance. To summarize this, management expects top line to continue to grow with an impressive margin expansion of up to one percentage point, resulting in yet another strong EPS growth of 8-12%. At the same time, CapEx intensity is expected to reduce and remain between 12-14% for the full year FY 2024, and that's all from my side.

As usual, the balance sheet, detailed statement of income, subscribers, and ARPU details are available in the appendix. Thank you, and now back to Pauline.

Pauline Saab
Head of Investor Relations, Vodafone Qatar

Thank you, Masroor. We can now move to the Q&A session. Operator, can you explain to the participant how to ask questions?

Operator

Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Fahad Al Ghamdi with NBK Wealth. Fahad, your line is now open.

Fahad Al-Ghamdi
Analyst, NBK Wealth

[Foreign language] Congratulations on the results. I just have one question, which is, according to the previous investor presentation, there is around 2,500 Radio Access Network sites. I just want to make sure this is the number of towers you have, right?

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Just a second, sorry.

Fahad Al-Ghamdi
Analyst, NBK Wealth

Sorry, what?

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Just a second. Just a second, sir.

Fahad Al-Ghamdi
Analyst, NBK Wealth

Okay, okay. No problem.

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Okay, so this count that you have just mentioned includes both towers as well as indoor sites.

Fahad Al-Ghamdi
Analyst, NBK Wealth

Okay. How many towers do you have?

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

We actually don't disclose that externally.

Fahad Al-Ghamdi
Analyst, NBK Wealth

Okay. Okay. Thank you.

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Nishit Lakhotia with SICO. Nishit, your line is now open.

Nishit Lakhotia
Analyst, SICO

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for the opportunity. I have a couple of questions. First, on the, you know, when you started the presentation, you said the performance despite the headwinds in the market. So I would want you to elaborate on the headwinds that you mentioned. Basically, is it only price-based competition? Is it something to do with your, maybe the macro situation, population? Also, now, because your subscriber count is also low. Sequentially, it is one of the lowest in last seven, eight quarters. Total subscriber, 2,067. So we just want to know whether this is stagnated there, and your growth will come only from ARPU expansion. And this growth that we've seen this quarter is mainly from equipment, project-based, so that could be lumpy over period.

So a bit more on what exactly are these headwinds, from your end, so we have more clarity on your performance despite the headwinds, both on competition and macro situation? That's my first question. Second, yes, you touched upon the depreciation aspect on the accelerated depreciation. So we saw the depreciation on PP going up by more than QAR 10 million to QAR 93 million. So how do we look for it going forward? Will there be a few more quarters of accelerated depreciation or what's the run rate now? And why is it being taken? I mean, how many assets? Any more clarity on that? Thank you.

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Okay, thank you for your question. First of all, addressing your question number one, when we talk about headwinds, we talk about both the macroeconomic environment as well as the pricing competition in the market. Regarding growth, so yes, equipment revenue growth is one of the key elements of our top line. But, I mean, you would appreciate that our service revenue, which is high margin revenue, has also increased by 2.8%. On the positive side, prepaid revenue, as I mentioned during the call, which declined last year, has stabilized and has increased by 2% this year.

We have been growing in other areas as well, other than mobility revenue, which includes our wholesale managed services and fixed revenue, and the growth there for this year is 6.2%. So yes, there is a growth on equipment side, but there is a growth on the high-margin service revenue side as well. Regarding your question number two, the increase in depreciation is partly resulting from network modernization-related accelerated depreciation amounting to QAR 7 million that we have taken in this quarter. There is a further impact of around QAR 8-QAR 10 million that we will see in Q4, and that's about it.

Nishit Lakhotia
Analyst, SICO

Okay, so in terms of the macro situation, how do you see it going forward? Do you expect the population to increase going forward, subscriber count to go up? I mean, anything, how are you looking at it from a strategy point of view on your forecast?

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Okay, yes, so we don't expect population to grow significantly. You all know the organic population growth opportunities in the market are limited. Where the growth for us is gonna come from and from where it is coming in the last few years, the first target area is the high-value segment. If you look at the difference in ARPU between us and the competition, it's still in the range of 20%-30%, and the reason for that is the majority of the high-value customers still sit with the competition. We are focusing on gaining our share, our fair share, in that segment. That should definitely help us improve our overall ARPU as well as revenue. The second area of growth for us is the fixed segment. You know that we started getting into fixed market quite late.

We are still expanding our fiber network across the country, and we are still far off from our fair share of market in the fixed segment. So these are the two major growth areas on the core telecom service revenue side that we are targeting.

Nishit Lakhotia
Analyst, SICO

Okay, so in terms of growth areas that you mentioned, what about data center? Your competition is investing quite a bit in the data center, and you're saying your CapEx intensity is gonna fall going forward. What's your strategy on data centers?

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

As of now, I mean, we don't have any plans to enter into data centers. If there is anything which comes up in future, we'll definitely take you guys in loop.

Nishit Lakhotia
Analyst, SICO

Okay. No problem. Thank you.

Operator

Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Ashish Agarwal with The First Investor. Ashish, your line is now open.

Ashish Agarwal
Analyst, The First Investor

Yeah. Hi, Pauline. Hi, Masroor. This is Ashish Agarwal from The First Investor. So, I recently saw a news that Starlink service has been started in Qatar Airways, and I believe Starlink of Elon Musk is also planning to come to Qatar, I think, in the late 2024 or early 202 5. So, how do you look at this competition in terms of your fixed, in terms of your fiber offering? Because I believe that will be a direct competition to your fiber offering currently. So if you can comment on that. Thanks a lot.

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Yes, we've also been hearing, but I mean, since we don't have specific details on how these plans will cost, what sort of quality of service that will bring to the market, we are keeping a very close eye on this thing. As soon as we see the details, we'll be able to better comment on that.

Ashish Agarwal
Analyst, The First Investor

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adrian Ababi with Orion Investment. Adrian, your line is now open.

Adrian Ababi
Analyst, Orion Investment

Thank you, Masroor. Thank you, Pauline, for the call. So quick, just one question: What is your market share in the fixed business that you just mentioned is one of the growth areas? What is your current market share, and what do you want to achieve?

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

We have not been disclosing our fixed customers and revenue separately and the details of the market share due to competitive reasons. As I mentioned, earlier, while answering a question, we still are far off from achieving our fair share in fixed. We are expanding our network across the country, and as we expand and grow, at some point in time, we can start sharing the results with you guys.

Adrian Ababi
Analyst, Orion Investment

Sounds good. One more question. This quarter, we saw a significant growth in your equipment sales. Is this... And usually, equipment sales, correct me if I'm wrong, these are not high, these are high margin, or these are not high margin. That's one. Secondly, is this because you've got new government contracts, or is this because of the launch of iPhone 16? What would you classify this to, equipment term?

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Equipment revenue includes the both handsets revenue as well as the equipment delivery and installation projects, both in government and non-government sector. As you rightly mentioned, these are not very high margin, you know, streams of revenue. The margin typically ranges between 8% to 12%, I would say, on the average. Specifically, this quarter, we had a recognition of QAR 34 million in non-recurring projects revenue, which resulted in growth in this quarter's top line.

Adrian Ababi
Analyst, Orion Investment

By margin, you mean EBITDA margin, or you mean?

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Yeah, so direct margin, I mean to say. There are no OpEx-

Adrian Ababi
Analyst, Orion Investment

Direct margin.

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

-which is related to these items, so, I mean, this is EBITDA margin.

Adrian Ababi
Analyst, Orion Investment

Okay.

Masroor Anjum
CFO, Vodafone Qatar

Pretty much EBITDA margin.

Adrian Ababi
Analyst, Orion Investment

Directly. Yeah. Thank you.

Operator

There's no further question at this time. I will now turn the conference back over to Bobby for closing remarks. Bobby?

Bobby Sarkar
Head of Research, QNB Financial Services

Thank you, Mark. Okay, if there are no further questions, we can end the call for today. I wanna thank Masroor and Pauline for taking the time to go through the presentation and answer our questions, and we can pick this up next quarter. Thank you very much.

Pauline Saab
Head of Investor Relations, Vodafone Qatar

Thank you, Bobby, and thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. We will keep you informed on all our upcoming investor calls and roadshow. In the meantime, please feel free to reach out to our investor relations team if you have any further inquiries, or visit our IR section on the Vodafone Qatar website. Thank you once again for joining. Thank you.

Operator

That concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

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