Good afternoon. Welcome to Banco de Chile First Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. If you need a copy of the financial management review, it is available on the company's website. Today with us we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer, Mr. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations, and Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control and Capital Management. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded, and the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed note in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Aravena. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining this quarterly conference call, where we discuss the overall performance of the bank, as well as the main trends observed in the business environment. We have completed another positive quarter, performing well in several key strategic areas, such as profitability, demand deposit, market share, and asset quality, while maintaining the largest coverage ratio among peers and the soundest capital adequacy among relevant peers. We also achieved important milestones in non-financial areas, such as the increased adoption of digital and AI tools, productivity, and ESG, which we'll discuss in more detail throughout this presentation. As usual, I'd like to begin with an analysis of the economic environment. Please turn to slide number three. The beginning of this year has undoubtedly been marked by a significant shift in global conditions, driven by the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.
Tensions in global energy markets have led to a significant external supply shock, with important consequences across the global economy, particularly in terms of inflation. As we mentioned in previous conference calls, Chile is a small and open economy and, therefore, vulnerable to external shocks. As shown in the chart on the left, the CPI clearly reflects how these global trends affect our economy, increasing by 1% in March, mainly driven by higher fuel prices during the month. As a result, inflation during the first quarter reached 1.4% year to date. Also, CPI, excluding volatile items, increased by 0.5% in March, reflecting the absence of relevant pressures at the core level, at least for now. We expect these pressures to intensify in the short term, as can also be seen in the chart.
CPI has likely increased to around 1.6% for the month of April, driven by further increases in fuel prices in recent weeks and the presence of some second-round effects, mainly related to indexed prices. This would significantly rise inflation in the first half of the year. These developments have contributed to significant adjustment in inflation expectations. As shown in the chart on the top right, break-even inflation rates implied in swaps have increased by more than 100 basis points, moving above 4% for this year. In fact, a few weeks after the beginning of the war, expectation rose even further, reaching almost 5%. This shift in market implied expectations is also consistent with the results of the economic expectations survey, which now anticipates inflation of 4.3% this year. For longer horizons, expectations remain anchored at the 3% target.
In this environment, the Central Bank of Chile has adopted a more cautious monetary policy stance. In March, the board not only decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% but also removed its previous easing bias. Specifically, they pointed out that the war in the Middle East has evolved more negatively than in the baseline scenario, which increases the probability of more adverse impact on global activity and inflation. It will closely monitor the factors that could increase the pass-through and the persistence of inflation on local prices. Board members noted that future policy decisions will be assessed at each meeting, leaving open the possibility of a rate increase if needed. According to the forward guidance in the monetary policy report, convergence toward neutral levels, around 4.25%, will likely be postponed until next year.
I would now like to turn to recent development in economic activity. Please go to slide number four. The Chilean economy expanded by 2.5% in 2025. This stronger-than-expected performance was largely driven by more dynamic domestic demand, shown in the top left chart. Specifically, as the chart on the bottom left displays, there's been a clear shift in the composition of growth, with consumption investment making a larger contribution to overall GDP growth. In 2025, gross investment grew by 7% after contracting by 1.6% in 2024, despite overall GDP growth remaining broadly similar in both years. Consumption also improved with growth accelerating from 1.4% to 2.8% over the same period.
Investment momentum has strengthened in the fourth quarter as gross investment expanded by 9.7% year-on-year, supported by a strong 22.9% increase in machinery and equipment investment. Nevertheless, monthly GDP growth has slowed at the beginning of this year. This can be explained by weaker performance in sectors such as mining, as well as a normalization in commerce, partly reflecting a high comparison base from a year earlier. However, several leading indicators point to growth ahead. As shown in the top right chart, the main confidence figures have shown an upward trend in the last few quarters. Third, these factors support a favorable outlook for economic activity in the coming quarters. Turning to the labor market, the unemployment rate has remained between 8% and 9%.
In the first quarter, unemployment increased to 8.9% from 8.7% a year earlier. While unemployment remains elevated compared with previous cycles, we expect stronger investment growth and improved performance in labor-intensive sectors, such as construction, to gradually translate into lower unemployment going forward. I would now like to share our baseline scenario for 2026. Please turn to slide number five. In terms of activity, we expect GDP to grow in line with its potential. Our forecast of 2.1% for 2026 implies a slight slowdown compared with last year, reflecting both weaker global growth expectations and a less expansionary fiscal stance announced by the government. Nevertheless, we continue to expect investment to grow faster than GDP, partially offsetting a weaker contribution from net exports.
Compared with our previous conference call, we have revised our inflation forecast upward to 4.3% from 3%. This revision mainly reflects higher oil prices, which are expected to push inflation significantly higher in the first half of the year. Our baseline scenario assumes a gradual normalization in international oil prices during the second half, together with contained second-round effects largely limited to indexed prices, while inflation expectations remain anchored and labor cost pressures stay moderate. Under this scenario, we expect the Central Bank to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% through 2026, postponing interest rate normalization until 2027. Finally, we are aware of the unusually high level of uncertainty in the global economy. Domestically, close attention should be paid to the ongoing congressional discussion around the government-proposed reform, which aim, among other objectives, to provide additional support to economic activity.
Key measures include a proposed gradual reduction in the corporate tax rate from the current 27% to 23% over a three-year period, greater tax certainty for future investment, lower municipal property taxes on housing, and improvements to the permitting and licensing framework. This discussion are expected to take time, and implementation is likely to be gradual. Before moving to the bank analysis, I'd like to review the main trends observed in the local banking industry. Please move to the next slide, number six. As illustrated in the chart on the top left, the banking industry posted net income of CLP 1.3 trillion and a return on average equity of 14.4% in the first quarter of this year.
While this result represents a nominal decline of 6.9% compared to the same period last year, it continues to reflect the sector's capacity to generate solid profitability in a context of lower inflation. Turning to asset quality, the chart on the top right shows that non-performing loans remain relatively stable for the industry at 2.5%, with a coverage ratio of 142%, consistent with recent quarters. On the credit side, the bottom left chart shows that the loans to GDP ratio rose slightly on a sequential basis to 74% as of March 2026, but still below pre-pandemic levels, confirming the subdued pace of credit growth relative to economic activity in recent years. Consistent with this trend, the bottom right chart highlights the prolonged weakness in real loan growth.
Since December 2019, total loans have declined by 1.7%, with consumer lending experiencing the sharpest contraction at 14.1%, followed by commercial loans at 9.9%, while mortgages stand out as the only segment posting real growth, increasing by 20.2% over the same period. Looking forward, we expect industry loan growth of around 4.5% in nominal terms by year-end 2026, driven by a recovery in commercial lending, expanding around 4% and supported by improved business sentiment and investment under a more favorable market-friendly policies. Consumer mortgage loans are also expected to grow between 4.5% and 5% nominal, reflecting a moderate rebound in consumption and ongoing effort to support the housing market.
Considering higher expected inflation in 2026 and a pause in monetary easing, we have revised our industry net interest margin outlook to a range of 3.6%-3.8%. NPLs are projected at 2.3% and 2.4%, and credit loss expenses are stable at 1.2% and 1.3%. Now I will turn the call over to Pablo to discuss Banco de Chile's results for the quarter.
Thank you, Rodrigo. Please turn to slide eight. This slide summarizes our strategy, committed to excellence and proven by results. At the core, our strategy remains unchanged and well-executed. Customer centricity, efficiency and productivity, and sustainability. These three pillars guide how we operate, how we allocate resources, and how we create value for our stakeholders. In the center of the slide, you can see how these pillars translate into six core priorities. These are not aspirational, they are being actively executed across the organization, and the results speak for themselves. As you can see on the right-hand side, we continue to deliver a solid track record of profitability supported by high-quality customer base, a well-diversified operating income base characterized by the resilience of customer-related income, leadership in local currency, demand deposits and capital, and a comprehensive digital offering across segments.
At the same time, we carry on making structural progress in efficiency and productivity across the organization while maintaining top service quality, low levels of attrition, solid ESG foundation reflected in our strong ratings and corporate reputation results. Our midterm targets, as shown on the bottom of the slide, continue to anchor our execution. We are targeting top positions in returns, DDA balances in local currency as well as commercial and consumer lending, a cost-income ratio below 40%, a Net Promoter Score above 73, and rank among the top three positions in corporate reputation. In summary, we have a strategy that is disciplined, consistent and resilient, importantly, one that is already reflected in our operating and financial performance. Please turn to slide nine, which provides a summary of our first quarter 2026 highlights.
The list at the top of the slide shows our key financial metrics for the quarter, which we will walk through in detail in the next few slides. Total loans reached CLP 40.2 trillion, up 2.6% quarter-over-quarter. Operating revenues came in at CLP 749 billion, with a net interest margin of 4.1% despite lower than normal inflation for the period. Net income was CLP 269 billion, translating into a return on average equity of 18.2%. On the risk side, our cost of risk stood at 1.16%, with NPLs improving slightly to 1.6%. Our efficiency ratio was 38.4%. Our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio remains solid at 13.3% even after paying dividends above the provisions amount.
Some important advances I want to highlight this quarter are listed in the middle of this slide. On the commercial front, loan originations show the positive trends. Consumer loan originations were up 16% year-over-year, while SME installment loan originations grew 18% over the same period. These trends were supported by our digital initiatives and improved origination capabilities across channels. In digital banking, for instance, we launched new tools for personal banking and SMEs, while our FAN Account base grew 22% year-over-year in March 2026, and digital current account openings expanded by 35% in the same period, reinforcing our position in digital onboarding and financial inclusion while diversifying our customer base through the attraction of new customers.
On AI adoption, we continued scaling capabilities through our digital skill certification academy and the application of advanced AI and specific use cases across the organization, which has allowed us to achieve priority productivity gains in several areas, including marketing campaigns, service quality, fraud, compliance monitoring, and IT internal developments. These initiatives, together with a firm cost control discipline, delivered 0% real year-on-year cost growth, consistent with our long-standing commitment to efficiency. On sustainability, we're proud to report that MSCI upgraded our ESG ratings from BB B to A, and we were included in the S&P Global 2026 Sustainability Yearbook. Finally, it's worth mentioning that our 2025 annual report was released in March aligned with international reporting standards.
In terms of our guidance, we have made some adjustments to reflect updated inflation expectations and the last developments affecting the economic environment, given the information we have so far. Our guidance is based on our baseline scenario and does not incorporate potential impacts from additional geopolitical escalation or other non-recurring events. Saying that, nominal loan growth is still expected to reach 7% as a result of higher inflation. We have also increased our net interest margin guidance by 10 basis points to around 4.6%. Cost of risk is expected to remain between 1.1% and 1.2%. In terms of our efficiency ratio, as measured as total operating expenses over total operating revenues, is expected to improve, reaching a level around 38% by December 2026.
As a result, a return average capital and reserve guidance has increased to a range of 21.5%-22.5%, excluding non-recurrent events. It's important to acknowledge the risks surrounding this outlook. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East remains the most significant source of uncertainty, together with domestic factors such as the still weak recovery in the labor market and the ongoing discussion of proposed reforms by the government. We will continue to monitor these developments closely and adjust our projections if necessary. Please turn to slide 10 to discuss the evolution of our loan portfolio.
Total loans reached CLP 40.2 trillion as of March 2026, marking a 2.2% nominal increase year-over-year, while sequential growth reached 2.6% compared to December 2025, equivalent to annualized pace above 10%. The recovery reflects the effort we are making to take back growth, particularly in commercial lending, where we regained market share. From a product perspective, the dynamics across our loan book remain differentiated. Consumer loans grew 5.1% year-on-year, supported by both installment loans and credit card lending as household consumption continues to recover. On the other hand, residential mortgage loans rose by 3.2% year-over-year, slightly below the industry's growth of 4.4% as of March 2026.
Commercial loans, while only up 0.8% on an annual basis, grew 4.8% sequentially, a meaningful shift driven by the new corporate lending operations, particularly in public infrastructure and concessions, as well as continued momentum in SME lending once FOGAPE amortizations are set aside. Additionally, we expect that the recently announced proposal to reduce taxes could add more dynamism to the economy, especially in those sectors related to domestic demand, such as construction. In terms of composition, retail banking continues to be the main component of our loan book, representing 66.1% of total loans. Within this segment, it's worth highlighting the progress we've made in aligning our digital capabilities more closely with the business.
The reorganization carried out two years ago, merging our marketing division into our technology division, given the synergy stemming from the closely related functions in today's more digital world, is undoubtedly bearing fruit. Digital banking now serves as a central platform for customer acquisition, cross-selling, and post-sale engagement. Our retail acquisition strategy addresses the full customer life cycle through a segmented data-driven approach using advanced analytics and targeted digital campaigns to drive conversion and onboarding. The results speak for themselves, significantly stronger consumer and SME loan originations, both leveraging on these digital capabilities. On the cross-selling front, we are beginning to test the waters of our FAN base using pre-approved offers for microloans, credit cards, and digital checking accounts delivered at low cost but with high conversion rates, primarily through our Mi Banco app and targeted digital communications across social media platforms.
Also, AI-driven behavior segmentation and risk models have increasingly allowed us to identify pre-approved customers. During 2025 alone, we granted more than 24,000 microloans and FAN credit cards through this approach. In the first quarter of 2026, we continued to scale these initiatives, extending pre-approved offers across products. We are very proud that today one-third of our current account openings now originate from the FAN customer base. Our SME portfolio expanded by 3.6% year-over-year, driven by a strong rebound in installment commercial originations to the segment, up 17.7% annually. This trend highlights the healthy underlying demand and effectiveness of our strategy focused on supporting entrepreneurship. The wholesale banking segment was essentially flat year-over-year, but improved significantly on a sequential basis, expanding 9.4% quarter-over-quarter.
This growth was driven by proactive commercial efforts that materialized in important operations related to infrastructure and concession projects, enabling us to recover market share in commercial loans. Turning to slide 11, we continue to benefit from a loyal customer base, a low cost funding structure, and a strong capital position, which remain among our main competitive advantages. Starting on the left, demand deposits are our most important source of funding, representing 27.2% of our total liabilities, giving us a highly efficient funding base that remains structurally superior to the rest of the industry. Savings accounts and time deposits account also for another 27.2% of our total liabilities, while debt issued represents 19.8%. This structure, together with our solid capital base, provides us with a well-diversified and cost-efficient financing structure.
On the top right, our demand deposit to loans ratio stand at 37.4%, once again, the highest among peers. This not only reflects our lower cost of funding, which supports superior net interest margins, but more importantly, reflects our strong brand customer engagement and the trust we've built across all of our business segments. Our retail business accounts for 56.6% of total DDA balances and grew 6.6% year-on-year, supported by the ongoing expansion of our customer base and improved value offerings for current account holders. Wholesale, on the other hand, remained relatively flat year-on-year. The strong composition of retail deposits provides us with a meaningful funding stability and liquidity metrics over the medium term as retail tends to be less sensitive to market conditions and institutional or foreign currency balances while being a more stable source from the liquidity perspective.
As a result, our demand deposit market share in local currency reached 20.7% as of March 2026, as shown on the bottom left, reinforcing our leading position among private banks. Moving to the bottom right, our capital ratios remain the strongest among peers. As of March 2026, our CET1 ratio stood at 13.3% and our total capital ratio at 17%, both comfortably above fully loaded Basel III requirements. Looking ahead, there's an upside to our capital ratios. The CMF recently announced it will reinforce the process of validating internal models for credit risk, an option that has always been available under the local Basel III framework, but has not yet been pursued by the Chilean banking industry. For a bank of our size, this process will be implemented gradually, benefiting our CET1 ratio in the medium term.
Additionally, it's worth noting that on January 16, 2026, the CMF removed the Pillar 2 capital charge of 0.13% previously assigned to us, bringing this requirement down to zero, a decision that reflects the regulator's positive assessment of our risk profile, governance, and capital management practices. In summary, the combination of our industry-leading funding base and robust capital position allows us to sustain one of the lowest funding cost structures in the banking industry while positioning us exceptionally well to continue growing profitably and navigating the current macroeconomic environment with confidence. Please turn to slide 12. Total operating revenues reached CLP 749 billion in the first quarter of 2026, flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 and down from CLP 779 billion in the first quarter of 2025.
As shown in the chart to the left, revenues have declined since the first quarter of 2025, largely reflecting lower inflation linked income as inflation has normalized from previously elevated levels, while being significantly below both expectations and normalized levels in the first quarter this year by reaching 0.3% for the whole quarter compared to the 1.2% recorded in the same period last year. On a year-on-year basis, this decline in operating revenues was partially offset by higher net interest income driven by the expansion of our loan portfolio, demand deposits, as well as stronger fee generation. In addition, other operating income increased by CLP 22 billion, mainly related to tax reimbursements from previous fiscal years.
Our operating margin, as shown on the charts to the right, reached 6.1% on an annualized basis, fully in line with our pre-pandemic average for the 2015 to 2019 period. Even in a lower inflation environment, the strength of our business model, our funding advantage, our lending spreads, and our fee generation capacity continues to deliver industry-leading margins. More importantly, our net operating margin, which incorporates cost of risk, reached 5.2% above our historical average and above our peers, confirming that our profitability is not only resilient, but also supported by sound asset quality. We will go into more detail of the composition of operating income, fee performance, and risk dynamics in the following slides. Please turn to slide 13. We will take a closer look at the composition of our net financial income and net interest margin.
Total net financial income reached CLP 542 billion, as shown on the chart on the top right. This was composed of CLP 460 billion in customer financial income and CLP 82 billion in non-customer income. On a year-over-year basis, customer financial income has remained essentially flat while non-customer income decreased 43.5%. On a sequential basis, throughout 2025 to 2026, customer and non-customer income followed different dynamics. Customer income was supported by loan growth and steadily improved lending spreads, together with the expansion of demand deposits balances mainly in the retail segment that enabled us to overcome a lower level of short-term interest rates.
However, this was partially offset by a decline in non-customer income, primarily coming from lower inflation, which was more than offset the positive effect of lower interest rates on revenues coming from assets and liability management that benefited from repricing of short-term funding sources. Moreover, the interest rate volatility observed in March 2026 contributed to a decrease in revenues coming from management of fixed income and derivative positions that also contributed to the decrease in non-customer income. It's important to mention that as of March 2026, our UF gap in the banking books stood at CLP 8.9 trillion as of March 2026, as shown on the bottom left.
In terms of net interest margin, this came in at 4.1% this quarter, down from 5% a year ago, primarily due to the previously mentioned effects of lower inflation and the moderate decline in the contribution of demand deposits in cost of funds in the context of lower interest rates. Despite these factors, our net interest margin has remained above 4%, which speaks to the resilience of our core business even in a low inflation and normalizing interest rate environment. This advantage is structural and reflects the strength of our funding base, our lending mix, and our ability to generate consistent spreads through market cycles. While the first quarter net interest margin of 4.1% reflects lower inflation-linked income, our full year guidance of 4.6% is supported by higher expected inflation over the coming quarters.
Please turn to slide 14 to review the performance of our net fee income this quarter. Fees made another solid contribution to our results, growing 6.9% year-on-year, supported mainly by transactional services and mutual funds. The 9.2% increase in transactional service fees was mainly driven by two factors: higher income from demand deposit accounts, supported by a 5.4% year-on-year increase in debit card transactions, and the continued expansion of our current account base. In fact, over the last 12 months, we grew current accounts by 7.2%, with an important number of these being opened online. As discussed earlier, digital cross-selling capabilities we have built allow us to deliver pre-approved product offers for credit cards, loans, digital checking accounts, investment, and insurance products at marginal cost compared to new customer acquisition, making fee generation increasingly efficient.
Mutual fund fees also remained an important contributor, posting a 6.7% year-on-year growth, mainly supported by an 8.7 increase in assets under management. In an environment of lower short-term interest rates and higher volatility, our subsidiary continued to adapt its product offering to satisfy an investor demand. Stock brokerage delivered a strong year-on-year growth as well, driven by higher equity capital markets actively associated with a couple of important deals in the local market, while fee income from insurance brokerage benefited from increased cross-selling of life credit-related products and a more selective growth in higher premium products. Overall, this quarter's fee performance highlights the resilience of our diversified revenue base and our ability to deepen customer monetization by leveraging technology.
When compared to the peers, this is evident in our fee margin over average interest rate in assets, where we continue to post strong levels, as shown on the right of this slide, with a ratio of 1.4%. Supporting this, a Net Promoter Score ratio of 78%, which is the highest in the industry, which translates directly into deeper product penetration and stronger cross-selling across our customer base. Please turn to slide 15, where we'll review our credit loss expenses for the quarter. Expected credit loss expenses reached CLP 114 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up 26.6% year-on-year, as shown on the left-hand chart.
In terms of cost of risk ratio for the period, stood at 1.16%, 23 basis points above the 0.93% recorded a year earlier, in line with our full year guidance of 1.1%-1.2%. On a sequential basis, however, cost of risk remained relatively flat. It is important to highlight some key movements that led to this annual rise. The first quarter of 2025 represented a period of lower than normal risk expenses, particularly in retail banking segment, which created a low comparison base that largely explains the increase. In the wholesale banking segment, asset quality improved, with credit loss expenses declining by approximately CLP 2 billion year-on-year, driven by strengthened risk profiles in the real estate, construction, and transportation industries when compared to a year earlier.
On the top right, you can see how our delinquency ratio compares to peers. Our NPL ratio improved 1.6% in March 2026, down from 1.7% in December 2025, maintaining a sizable gap versus our main competition. On the bottom right, the improvement in asset quality is broad-based across all segments. Commercial loan NPLs stood at 1.6%, mortgage s at 1.5%, and consumer loans at 1.9%, all showing sequential improvements. This improvement reflects our prudent risk policies and the quality of our customer base, supported by disciplined loan growth across cycles and a more supportive macroeconomic environment. Please turn to slide 16.
This quarter, expenses totaled CLP 288 billion, remaining flat in real terms year-on-year, reflected continued cost discipline and consistent execution of our productivity and efficiency agenda. This is the result of a multi-year transformation effort that combines structural cost control with targeted technological investments, organizational simplification, and ongoing optimization of our branch network and headcount. To put this into perspective, since 2018, we have reduced our branch network by 45% and our headcount by 19% while continuously improving service quality. As a result, productivity continued to improve, with loans per employees reaching CLP 3.6 billion, up 3% year-on-year, and fees to expenses ratio expanding by 251 basis points to 58.2%.
These gains were mainly driven by continuous innovation in digital capabilities and organizational initiatives, including virtual services, servicing models, which now cover around 20% of the retail clients, digital enhancements that supported 16% year-on-year increase in consumer loan originations. At the same time, disciplined cost execution led to a 0.4% annual decline in personnel expenses and a 4% annual reduction in the branch network from 224 to 215 locations. Breaking this down, during the first quarter, expenses increased 2.5% year-on-year in nominal terms. This was mainly driven by an increase in administrative expenses associated with higher IT services costs, including cloud software licensing and IT support in line with our digital strategy and higher marketing expenses related to the launch of new services at Banchile Pagos.
Personnel expenses declined slightly by 0.4% year-over-year, driven by a reduction in severance payments, partially offset by higher staff benefits reflecting the cumulative effect of inflation on salaries. The chart on the bottom right highlights our consistent efficiency track record, with levels well below pre-pandemic figures reaching 38.4% in the first quarter of 2026, 763 basis points below the industry average of 46.1%. Looking ahead, we're confident that disciplined cost management, continued productivity gains and effective use of technology will allow us to sustain strong efficiency levels. Accordingly, under our revised baseline scenario, we expect to reach an efficiency ratio of around 38% in 2026 and remain below 40% over the medium term with our cost base fully aligned with our strategic priorities.
Please turn to slide 17, which brings together everything we've discussed so far. Robust profitability driven by the resilience of our core business. Net income reached CLP 269 billion in the first quarter of 2026, slightly above the fourth quarter of 2025, despite lower inflation, reflecting the stability and the quality of our core business model. Our return metrics remain clearly differentiated, as you can see on the right-hand side. Return on average assets stood at 2% and return on average equity at around 18% as of March 2026. While these levels are below the peak seen during the periods of higher inflation, they remain comfortably above the industry.
This has been another quarter of solid results that has been supported by a strong asset and liability mix, solid fee generation, prudent risk management, and disciplined cost control, all of which continue to translate into industry-leading returns. Please turn to slide 18. Before taking your questions, I would like to highlight a few key takeaways from this presentation. On the macro front, Chile's economy continues to perform well, with GDP growth expected to come in slightly above its potential rate at around 2.1% in 2026, driven primarily from a recovery in private investment. That said, higher expected inflation in the near term will likely delay the pace of interest rate cuts. Despite global uncertainties, Chile's strong institutions and solid fundamentals, along with market-friendly reform proposals, should support a favorable environment for the economy and banking sector.
On profitability, our core business continues to drive results. Net income reached CLP 269 billion this quarter with a return on average equity of 18%. A strong outcome in a low inflation environment and proof of the quality and consistency of our recurring income sources. On efficiency and productivity, expenses continue to be flat in real terms, demonstrating the tangible results of the efficiency and productivity initiatives that we have implemented over recent years. Our efficiency ratio reached 38.4% this quarter, well below the industry, and remain confident in sustaining these levels going forward. Finally, on capital remain the best capitalized bank amongst our peers, which gives us flexibility to fund growth, maintain attractive dividends and navigate uncertainty from a position of strength.
We remain confident in our ability to continue positioning Banco de Chile as the most profitable and resilient financial institution in the Chilean banking industry, supported by a disciplined and consistent strategy, the strongest customer base, superior asset quality and a robust capital position that will allow us to capture opportunities as the economy gains momentum. Thank you. If you have any questions, we'd be happy to answer them.
Thank you. We'll now move to the question and answer section. If you would like to ask a question, please press star two on your phone and wait to be prompted. If you are dialed in by the web, you can also ask a voice question. We'll just wait a moment or two for the questions to come in.
Okay. We have our first voice question from Diego Márquez from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Hi, Rodrigo, Daniel, Pablo. Thank you for taking the questions. Just a quick one regarding higher inflation. You slightly increased your ROE guidance, but kept your loan guidance unchanged. Just wanted to see if we could see any further upside to the loan growth, given high inflation, and maintaining your 7% guidance, and in which segments we could see the most upside. An additional question regarding potentially higher ROE, saying given inflation above this 21.5%-22.5% that you guided. Thank you.
Hi, Diego. Thank you very much for this question. This is Rodrigo Aravena. In terms of inflation, I think that it's very important to keep in mind that we are facing a supply shock, right? In a supply shock, you have a temporary rise of inflation. However, for the next quarter, it's likely to have a normalization as long as the situation in the rest of the world, the geopolitical conflict tend to be more normalized, right? That's why we increased our CPI forecast for this year from 3% to 4.3%. I mean, what I'm trying to say is that we're gonna have a high inflation in the second quarter of the year. Probably, inflation, the total inflation in the second quarter will be between 7%-8%.
For the next quarter, we are gonna have a much lower inflation, achieving a total inflation in the year around 4.3%. For the next year, we can rule out an inflation rate of around 3%. Also, we can rule out an inflation slightly below the 3% because the supply shock tend to generate a more temporary impact of inflation. That's why our adjustment for the CPI forecast for this year was only 150 basis points, even though the very important rise of inflation for the second quarter of this year. Pablo will supplement that answer.
In terms of loan growth, in nominal terms, we're seeing similar levels as we mentioned in the first quarter, sorry, the fourth quarter of last year in that call. In terms of real growth, it's just slightly down because of everything that you know is happening in the global economy and how that's affecting all the countries. Chile since it's an open economy, is also affected. In nominal terms, we're seeing a similar level of loan growth. In real terms, it's slightly below. This should be affecting overall the loan portfolio. Again, we're not seeing that change in the nominal figures. In terms of ROE, what we said in the guidance was around 21%-22%.
That level of ROE is in line with this higher expectation of slightly higher inflation for the year-end. Obviously, these numbers can change depending on how the impacts of this more difficult situation is arising in terms of the global trends and how that affects our bottom line. There could be changes based on new news from these events.
All very clear. Thank you, Rodrigo and Pablo.
You're welcome.
Thank you. We'll now move to the next question that comes from Neha Agarwala from HSBC. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Could we zoom in a bit on your NIM sensitivity? We understand you expect higher NIMs on the back of higher inflation, but could you reinforce what your sensitivity is both to inflation and rates, as there are some discussions about maybe potential rate hikes coming through? Also, do you have any calculations regarding what could be the potential improvement in the capital ratios with the changes that you mentioned? Could that lead to maybe an extraordinary payout of dividends or an increase in the dividends in the near term? Thank you so much.
Hi, Neha. This is Rodrigo Aravena. Thank you very much for this question. In our baseline scenario, we're not expecting changes in the interest rate from Central Bank because we are expecting only a temporary rise in the total inflation in Chile. It's important to remember that in Chile, the monetary policy rule is based on an inflation rate at 3% over the next two years. Given that, we're expecting only a temporary impact of inflation, and we maintain our forecast for the inflation rate at 3% over the next two years. Also considering that the current inflation rate, sorry, interest rate, which is 4.5%, is not expansionary.
The Central Bank has room to continue waiting for the new developments on inflation, there's room to continue maintaining the interest rate at the current level. Obviously, if the inflation rate were higher, indicate that, for example, the oil price continue hovering around 100 per barrel, for example. In that case, we would have an interest rate hike in the future. So far it's not our base scenario.
Adding to that, in terms of changes of the overnight rate or interest rates, we don't have so many floating rates in the bank, it's not an immediate impact. In terms of what would move the quickest is their time deposits, which come due mostly within three months or so. In terms of the sensitivity to inflation, it's around 20 basis points of net interest margin. We should see that. More importantly, in terms of for the year, as Rodrigo mentioned, our baseline scenario is moving from a level of inflation of 3%, 4%. It's a slight variation versus the prior year. This is also included in our numbers, where we increase the net interest margins from 4.5% to around 4.6%.
In terms of the capital ratio, changes, I'll pass that to Daniel Galarce.
Thank you, Pablo. Hi, Neha. This is Daniel Galarce. Well, regarding your questions, certainly the use of internal models for banks with good asset quality such as Banco de Chile would result in benefits in terms of capital freeing up. However, there is still some way to go on this matter. I mean, we expect more specific guidelines by the CMF in terms of the application process, which is basically promised for 2027 by the CMF, and also, probably clarification of certain technical issues and more flexibility in some topics could make the process also easier in the future. However, this is a topic we are working on, and as we pursue to be one of the first in the queue for the application validation process.
Although it's still too early to define the expected impact of the use of internal models on our capital ratios. We certainly expect to capture some benefits considering the regulation, but there is still a lot of pieces of information that need to be clarified.
Understood. Thank you so much.
Thanks.
Thank you. Thank you very much. Before I move to the next question, just a quick reminder. If you'd like to ask a voice question and you're connected through the phone, please press star two on your phone keypad and wait for your name to be prompted. If you are connected via the web, you can also request to ask a voice question. Our next question comes from Daniel Mora from Credicorp Capital. Please go ahead, Daniel. Your line is open.
Hi. Good morning, and thank you for the presentation. I have just one question. Considering that you expect that inflation should be between 2.7%, 2.8% in the second quarter, how high could be the impact of, on NIM and also on ROE in that particular quarter? Thank you so much.
I think it's very important, as I mentioned, that in terms of an analysis by quarter, it's challenging to analyze since it's very volatile, the levels of inflation during the year. As I mentioned, for net interest margin, the change is around 20 basis points. With that, you'd have an effect of, I don't know, around 50 basis points higher in net interest margins than we'd have in benefit in the bottom line. It's more important that for the full year, it's not so relevant. For the full year, we have a change versus 2025 of only 1% in terms of inflation.
This is a quick spike up, but it comes down very quickly to reach a level of inflation of 4% versus 3%. That's the reason why we increased the level of ROE for the year-end, also because of this higher expectations of inflation, not including any other one-time events that could occur during the year.
Sorry. Yeah, just to clarify, the estimate of 2.5%-2.8% of inflation is a estimate of UF variation of the quarter rather than the CPI of that period. Just to clarify.
Perfect. Thank you so much. Very clear. Thank you for the clarification. Yes.
Thanks.
You're welcome.
Okay. Thank you. Just the final reminder for any remaining questions, if you are connected via the phone, please press star two on your phone keypad and wait for your name to be prompted. Our web participants can also request to ask a voice question. I'll just give a moment or so for any additional questions to come in.
Okay.
Okay. Looks like we have no further questions. I will pass the line back to the team for their closing remarks.
Well, thanks for listening to our first quarter results. We look forward to speaking with you again regarding our second quarter results. Bye.
Thank you. This concludes the call for today. We are now closing all the lines. Thank you and goodbye.