Hi, everyone, and welcome to the Presentation of Q3 2022 Results for Alleima. My name is Emelie, and I am Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined here by Göran Björkman, President and CEO, and Olof Bengtsson, CFO. Göran and Olof will take you through our results, and we will then have a Q&A session. You can ask questions through the conference call, and you can also write them in the field below the webcast. You can also download the presentation from alleima.com. At Alleima, we always put safety first, and safety is a top priority for us. I trust that you are safe now and that you know the safety routines of where you are located. With that, I would like to hand over the word to you, Göran.
Thank you, Emelie. Also from my side, welcome everyone to our first quarterly report. Let's start with the Q3 highlights. I'd say that overall earnings are in line with normal seasonality. However, from a market perspective, a bit mixed quarter. What we noted in the end of Q2 continued into Q3, where we see a subdued demand in the short cycle segments like long products. We also see that in parts of the consumer segment. However, in other parts of the business, a continued positive development in several other segments, and this is one of our, say, the strength of Alleima, our diverse customer segment exposure. All in all, that led to an organic order intake growth of minus 10%.
Revenue, on the other hand, very strong on +12%, and the order backlog is, I would say, very solid. Earnings at the adjusted EBIT margin on 4.6%, which is in line with normal seasonality. We see positive contribution from product mix and also from currency. Higher costs, freight, energy, also general inflation is however diluting our margins. Very eventful quarter for us, of course, with the successful listing on Nasdaq Stockholm. This has created a lot of energy in the Alleima organization. We've also received a lot of positive customer feedbacks and reactions from our brand launch.
One important pillar of our strategy is to have industry-leading sustainability, both through our own operations as well as through our products. In the quarter, if I look at our operation, we have improved safety performance. We have a higher share of recycled steel. I think this is at record levels. Greenhouse gases were reduced. That is normal in Q3. But also if we look at it in relation to produced tons, this is still a reduction of around 11% year-on-year. One important contributor to that is that we now from now on are operating in our Indian units only on fossil-free energy. In the quarter, we have record high share of female managers.
The largest positive impact we can do on sustainability and mainly on climate change is done through our offerings. Clearly, sustainability is the business driver for us. I'd like to share one example, and this is an example where it's about the solar industry. That's one important energy source in the hydrogen and renewable energy segment.
In Q3, two orders for polysilicon production of upstream solar photovoltaic panels were received in the high-temperature Sanicro 31HT. This is an example where it's important to understand the complete value chain of our customers to find these kind of opportunities. This customer is using our alloy in the final stage of polysilicon production in their growth investment, in this case, in the APAC region. I think this is one example of Alleima executing our strategy to contribute to the green energy transition through our offerings, in this case, in the solar industry. Demand was mixed during the quarter, and while several customer segments continued on stable or positive trajectory, the demand weakened for short cycle business in all regions.
The current market environment remains impacted by supply chain issues like freight times, inflation, and also the uncertainties related to energy supply in Europe. If you look at the individual segments, and I start with the industrial segment, this is where we see the demand for low refined products like long products, they were decreased, and difficult to judge, but I expect this to probably continue in the near term. Looking at the chemical and petrochemical segment, demand remains stable with good activity in what we call application tubing. Oil and gas, I mean, here we see continued positive trend. The segment is underinvested, but in our order intake, we see a mixed development in the quarter.
While we have strong development for OCTG, umbilicals was slower than we expected. Despite the longer customer product list which we have, and longer than since a long time, there are delays in customer product awards. Discussing with customers, it's obvious that in the sort of project calculations they did some years ago, the costs now were increased, and they need to revisit their projects. Midterm, we are still positive, even if right now we see some delays in order awards. Industrial Heating segment, we noted increased demand.
The customer segments like solar, semiconductor, steel are examples of segments that are pushing Industrial Heating in the right direction. The Consumer segment weakened in the quarter, products like compressor valve steel and appliance wire, both of them used in white goods, have decreased. Razor blade steel, on the other hand, remained solid. Demand in Power Generation remained solid. Also, Mining and Construction, we noted a solid demand. In the Transportation segment, aerospace is clearly now very strong with year-on-year growth, mainly related to precision tubing for hydraulic systems. Automotive remained fairly stable.
Demand in Medical shows strong underlying momentum, although timing of orders impacted the quarter slightly. Last, within the Hydrogen & Renewable Energy segment, we noted continued growth, especially for our coated strip steel for hydrogen fuel cells, in this case, mainly related to stationary power. If you look at the order intake and revenue, order intake came in close to SEK 3.9 billion, and revenue close to SEK 4.3 billion. High absolute numbers, even though not as high as in Q1 and Q2.
Order intake organically -10% as [Inaudible] said, due to softer development in the short cycle, low refined long products, and in the Industrial segment, and also for the Consumer segment. Order intake for most other segments are above last year, like Industrial Heating, Transportation, Oil & Gas. Revenue increased organically by 12%, driven by positive development in all three divisions. All segments except Industrial noted a positive development. Big contributors here are Oil & Gas, Chemical, Petrochemical, and also Medical. Medical have record high revenues.
Backlog remains solid, and book-to-bill year-to-date is some 1.2, so our order backlog is very strong. Let's try to visualize both the order organic order growth, but also the impact of currency and mainly on metal prices, both on order intake and revenue. We have different models how to compensate for changed metal prices. If you look at the order intake graph, we have had five quarters with very strong organic growth until this quarter. As stated, we have a lot of positive effects from metal price. That's the gray part of this graph. In Q2 , very high, now slightly lower in Q3 . With the current metal prices, this is expected to continue to be reduced.
Looking at revenue, several quarters with positive organic growth, especially the last three quarters. Once again, the backlog is solid. Look at earnings. The adjusted EBIT of SEK 195 million. This meant a margin, adjusted margin of 4.6%, which is in line with normal seasonality. If you look a little bit deeper into that, I think it's supported by a positive mix and volume, but also high positive impact from currency on SEK 99 million. This means, of course, that leverage is on the weak side. Cost inflation continued to dilute margin. If we compensate, which we do, with prices this quarter, there were no leverage.
Our own price increases and inflation are sort of a wash there. That means that price increases does not give any leverage. We also have a negative impact from absorption related to inventory reduction, where volumes have been reduced significantly. Inventory is normally reduced in Q3, but this time, quite more than normal. I would say this is, from our side, a precautionary measure if market now turns to be more soft.
We also have a negative impact from the fire in steel plant that we had end of August. Since we, when we do the adjusted EBIT, we reduce metal prices in EBIT, but not in the top line, we have alloys diluting our margins with roughly 40 basis points. Rolling 12 months EBIT margin on 8.6%, it was 8.2% a year ago. Reported EBIT on SEK -26 million, where metal prices contributed with SEK -131 million, and items affecting comparability, SEK -90 million, and that is all, costs coming from the listing project. Adjusted EBITDA on SEK 403 million, giving a margin on 9.4%. Let's comment on the three divisions, starting with Tube. Tube had an order intake growth of -16%.
This is a decline in the low-margin short-cycle products in the industrial segment. Once again, this is mainly the long products. Other segments were positive, such as power generation, transportation, oil and gas as main drivers. We are at high level in oil and gas, but as I already have commented, we see some delays in the project award in the umbilical area, despite a large project list. This is due to customer project costs that are increasing. Good organic revenue on plus 13%, mainly driven by application tubing in the chemical and petrochemical segment and in oil and gas.
Now the EBIT margin on 4.9%. Positive contribution from mix and from currency, but negative impact from under absorption related to inventory reduction and also the impact from the fire at the steel plant. One important ongoing activity within the Tube division is the expansion of our Mehsana tube mill in India, and this is all to meet the demand from increased demand from application tubing products in this region. Let's comment on Kanthal. An organic order intake growth of +2%. We see a solid demand in industrial heating with several good orders.
A lower demand in heating materials related to the consumer and industrial segment. Organic revenue growth of +12%, with broad-based positive development and record high revenue for the medical segment. An adjusted EBIT margin of 11.6%, slightly negative contribution from revenue mix with higher share of heating materials. To mention one important thing in the quarter, significant reduction of our climate footprint, now running India on 100% fossil-free electricity. Moving over to Strip.
Organic order intake growth of +10%. This is mainly driven by coated strip steel from the Surface Technology for hydrogen and renewable segment. During the quarter, received large orders for stationary power. I think this is an area where we will see more growth than maybe we expected before, now when this part is being commercialized. Demand in the consumer segment, however, slowed down while industrial and medical remains solid. We saw an organic revenue growth of +3%, mainly driven by razor blade. Adjusted EBIT of 3%. Negative revenue mix due to the lower compressor steel.
Here, Strip has a setup that is normally very good, with from the service center. This is mainly done in China, from the service center with very short lead times to customers, so the time between order and taking revenue is not more than maybe a couple of weeks. This had an impact also on the revenue in the quarter. They've been fighting with some issues in Strip, increased production costs and a slow ramp- up after the summer stops. In Strip, we are now, however, starting to see some positive impact from price increases. Due to the nature of the Strip business with long cost customer contracts, it takes time until we see price increases in revenue, but it's coming now.
To comment on one important activity in the quarter, we have relocated the service center to North America, and this will enable better customer service and shorter lead times. By that, I'll leave the word over to you, Olof, to comment on the quarterly numbers.
Thank you, Göran. Yes, if we start with a short summary of the quarter, again, this is our Q1 presented externally, and it happens to be Q3. Q3 is, as you know, just a small quarter where we have the summer stops and the maintenance stops affecting the financials. If we look at the quarter then, the top order intake 10% gross change. However, that is very much affected by a currency tailwind and also the alloy surcharges that are still high. The organic growth in the order intake comes out at -10%. Obviously, this is the impact from the short cycle segments and the consumer segments.
Other segments are stable to positive, as Göran has mentioned. If we look at revenues on a gross basis, increased by 34%, but also they're affected by currencies and alloys. The organic sales growth or revenue growth comes out at a strong 12%, and that's coming from all divisions, and also most segments like the oil and gas segment, very strong. Adjusted EBIT coming out at 4.6%, which is an increase from 3.8% the year before, very much affected by a very good currency tailwind, but an improvement versus last year. Metal prices SEK -131 million in the quarter, now affected by nickel prices going down, and that is very pronounced at the end of the quarter.
Items affecting comparability, that is, related to the separation and standalone project. In connection with the separation from Sandvik, we are now made our final provisions for that project of SEK 90 million in total for the quarter. EBIT margin, the reported margin coming out at -0.6%, that includes the metal price effect and the items affecting comparability. Net financial items SEK -187 million, not really reflecting the cash debt situation of the group, but it's more an effect of valuation of financial derivatives. It's FX contracts hedging orders, and we are gradually turning to hedge accounting, so this effect will go away over time.
Net working capital 40.2% of revenues in the quarter, mainly affected over the year. It's an effect of increased inventories in the quarter. In particular, it's an effect of reduced accounts payable or payments of high raw material purchases from Q2, which brings the cash flow to negative SEK 323 million. Tax rate, I should mention that as well. The normalized tax rate is 26.3% year- to- date. The quarter is very much affected by one-offs, mainly coming from previous acquisitions, adjustments made. It's not so easy to look at the quarter when you look at the tax rate. I think you should look at the normalized tax rate for the full nine-month period.
Looking at the bridge analysis then, we see, as I mentioned before, a very strong currency tailwind. We think the leverage is on the low side, in the quarter, coming mainly then from under absorption related to the stock reductions that we've seen during the quarter and also some negative effects coming from the fire in the steel mill at the end of August. Alloys diluting the margin by approximately 40 basis points. Going into the balance sheet then, looking at capital efficiency, the net working capital increased to a little bit more than SEK 7 billion up from SEK 4.8 billion last year. The development then coming over the year is from the higher metal prices.
Obviously, the inventory values are increasing. If we look at the quarter specifically, it's payments of raw material purchases made during the Q2 when the metal prices, especially the nickel price, was very high. We have favorable payment terms with our raw material suppliers, meaning that payments are delayed and coming in through, so the payment of the high-value invoices are coming this quarter. Looking at capital employed, increased to SEK 17.5 billion, and the main explanation for that is the increase in the net working capital. ROAS coming out at -0.5%. Obviously, the negative result in the quarter is impacting the calculation. I guess it's more fair to look at the full nine-month period where you would have a ROAS of 13.6%.
Going further to the cash flow, already mentioned it. It came out at negative SEK 323 million, coming down from the increased net working capital and in turn then coming from the payments of the raw material purchases in the quarter. But we expect this to come into a better balance in the last quarter. We expect the cash flow to improve sequentially then coming into this quarter. CapEx has increased compared to last year when it was very low. It's related, for instance, to the investment in India that Göran mentioned in the Mehsana plant and also from maintenance CapEx. Coming into the capital structure, more specifically the net debt.
The net debt ended at a debt position of SEK 325 million, and it consists of the pension liabilities of close to half a billion, mainly then coming from the Swedish pension and pension liability. We have leasing liabilities of approximately SEK 200 million. We own most of our properties and machinery, so quite low numbers there. We have a net position of SEK 384 million in financial net debt. And that consists, among other things, of a liquidity position of roughly SEK 1.1 billion. If we look at the gearing ratios, the net debt to equity, it comes out very close to zero, 0.02 times.
If we compare the net debt to the adjusted EBITDA on a rolling twelve-month basis, we come out at 0.14 times. There is plenty of headroom under our gearing covenant that we have in our revolving credit facility agreement. Looking at the guidance we gave at the end of Q2 then, starting with CapEx. We guided for CapEx to be below SEK 650 million in the full year 2022. Year-to-date, we are at SEK 337 million, and I will come back to a lower guidance for 2022 in a minute. Currency translation and transaction effects of nearly SEK 94 million compared to a guidance of SEK 140 million. Total currency effect is SEK 99 million.
Metal price effect SEK -131 million, and we guided for SEK -200 million. The tax rate, the normalized tax rate, 26.3% Year-to-date. That is, we believe, in line with our guidance being 24%-26% for the full year. Coming to the guidance for Q4. CapEx around SEK 600 million, so below SEK 600 million, to be more correct. Currency impact around SEK 100 million for the last quarter, so more or less the same magnitude as in Q3. Metal price effects, SEK -150 million is our best estimate right now. The tax rate guidance is kept in the range of 24%-26% for the normalized tax rate. I think that was all for me. Now I would like to hand back to Göran for some concluding remarks on the report and the outlook.
Thank you, Olof. Looking at the outlook for Q4 , I would say it's not that easy to give an outlook. I think macro development is still quite uncertain with the war going on in Europe, energy questions in Europe regarding both supply and prices and of course the global inflation. I say still, for us, it gives a mixed market sentiment. While we have good momentum in and sort of positive outlook in big parts of the business, we expect the demand for the short cycle industry and consumer segment to be continued soft in Q4. Product mix expected to be rather similar to the one we had in Q3.
When it comes to orders, revenue and adjusted margin in Q4 , that is normally higher than in Q3 based on seasonal effects. Cash flow, as Olof just showed, is expected to improve sequentially. To summarize, a very eventful quarter for us, including becoming a separate and listed company, launching our new brand, with a lot of positive feedback from customers. Increased macro uncertainties and what we saw end of Q2 continued into Q3. As I said now several times, slowdown in the short cycle and industrial and also the consumer segment. While we have a continued solid demand in many other segment, this is, say, one of the strength with the Alleima. We have a diversified customer segment exposure, so some are softer, others are stronger.
We have a very solid order backlog to sell from. Margins rather in line with seasonality, however, weak leverage due to the things that we commented on in the report. To end with a very positive note, I think it's clear for us that the sustainable customer segment is clearly generating business for the Alleima company. Thank you.
Thank you, Göran. Thank you, Olof. It's now time to start the Q&A session. Again, you can ask your question through the conference call or write it in the webcast. Operator, please go ahead.
We now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who has a question from the phone, we press star and one at this time. The first question is from Patrick Mann from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good day. Thanks very much for the opportunity. I wanted to ask a little bit more about the umbilicals business. So you said there's resource constraints in your customer base and that you're still positive over the medium term. I mean, can you maybe help us a little bit on the timing of that? Because it doesn't sound like you think those could get awarded in the near term, right? You said positive over the medium term. Maybe when do you think you might see sort of a pickup in the business and those start to be awarded? The second question is just around, I suppose, working capital and cash flow. You're saying you're expecting a sequential improvement in cash flow quarter on quarter.
I mean, do you expect to turn free cash flow positive in Q4? Yeah, I suppose that's linked to working capital. You know, already your inventory seems quite low or you said you've destocked. You know, from here, is working capital just gonna normalize, or when do you think it comes down or reduces? Thanks very much.
All right, let's start with try to answer the umbilical question. I mean, the question you raise exactly the question we discuss with our customers, of course. The project list is extremely interesting. There's a lot of projects being planned and also projects sort of ready for execution. What we hear from our customers is that, yeah, there are some resource restraints, but also projects that were sort of calculated few years back has, due to sort of the global inflation, becoming more expensive, and they sort of need to redo their calculations.
It is difficult to judge because it's individual customer projects. It's difficult to judge when that will improve. As I said, midterm, whatever that is, we expect this to continue to grow. I don't feel like speculating right now. We are at a somewhat lower pace than I said at the Capital Markets Day, but that will go up. I just don't know exactly when. Should you answer the cash flow question?
Yes. In terms of cash flow then, stocks have gone lower, both in terms of value and volume in the last quarter. If we look ahead, we expect it to improve sequentially. Just looking at, for instance, accounts payable, we think that, obviously, as we reduce our purchases during Q3, that will have an effect in Q4 and also going into the next year. Free cash flow is expected to be positive in the last quarter. Just looking at the payment balance.
Thanks. Thanks very much.
The next question is from Fredrik Håård from SEB. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thank you very much. Thanks. I just wanted to start off on the tube side, where you had an organic order contraction of 16%, which obviously is a big number, especially given what Sandvik just reported on their short-cycle part. Could you be a bit more precise on where this weakness is geographically and perhaps by end market? And also here, you said positive organic growth in power gen, transportation, and oil and gas. Was that positive then in the quarter? And could you also then give us a magnitude of that number? Thank you.
Thanks, Fredrik. First of all, Tube is a very project-oriented business with a lot of project orders. It's sometimes a little bit difficult to judge one quarter by another quarter if the projects are coming in or not. The reductions or the decrease we see in the organic order intake is mainly for the long products, and we see that in all three regions. You have the numbers on the other, Olof. Oil and gas, yes, that was positive in the quarter.
Oil and gas is positive quarter, yes. Power gen is positive. Industrial heating is positive. Medical is positive.
Yeah. For Tube, all other segments were positive.
Okay. That's a pretty sharp downturn then in the long products. Is there any more granularity? What should we expect going into Q4 then, I mean, given what you're seeing now? Because, I mean, minus 16% with substantial parts of the division being in positive territory suggests to me that it's ultra weak. Is that something that we expect to continue in Q4?
First of all, it's also strong comparables. I think we see it both in Europe, in Asia, and North America. Actually, Europe being the least negative of the three regions. Our long products business is, as you know, I would say basically our contribution business. Indirectly this is improving the mix in tube, but on the other hand, it sort of the backside of it is called less absorption.
Okay. Just that brings me to the second question here. The EBIT margin was, I guess, year-over-year, roughly as it should have been. Given that you had a lot of adverse factors in the margin, I mean, you had a top line that was up quite substantially and no leverage. Factoring in what we should see then in Q2, but that filters through to revenue, and then you have all the effects of FX, inventories, alloys, and cost inflation in Q3. Could you give us any guidance on what we should look at on Q4 margins? Are they gonna be expanding year-over-year, flat or even down?
I don't think we'll give guidance on the future here, but I would say that if you look at the quarterly development, normally Q4 is stronger.
And I said-
Yeah, yeah, on a year-over-year basis.
Uh-
I mean, given the factors, I was just looking.
And some of the things that-
With no leverage.
Some of the things that led to a weak leverage in Q3 should not be repeated in Q4.
Yes.
I mean, we have really tried to reduce our inventory in volume, so to say, which we have done. That negative impact on absorption should not continue into Q4. The cost of the fire and that loss of contribution will not continue into Q4.
Yeah, I should also say that there are some costs related to the to the stock exchange introduction, also on the standalone, so to say, that has impacted quite a lot in the quarter. If you look at the run rate on the common cost, for instance, that is, I think, on the high side, I would say. For this quarter. So that should also come down.
Yeah. In summary, some of the reasons for a weak leverage in Q3 should not continue in Q4.
Okay, thanks. Just one follow-up question on that then on the energy side. In Q2 or at your CMD you said that you had energy surcharges that covered your increasing energy costs fully for the parts that you hadn't covered in hedges. Has that still been the case in Q4? Or is there any element here of margin squeeze from rising energy costs?
I mean, the energy surcharges as such, they continued in Q3. As I said, comparing Q2 with Q3, in Q2 we had a positive net impact, meaning price increases higher than cost increases. That we did not have in Q3. It was roughly a wash.
Okay. All right. Thank you very much.
I think some of that was related to so higher cost for maintenance related activities during the summer.
Yeah. That's fine. Thanks.
The next question is from Viktor Trollsten, from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Hi Göran, Olof, and Emelie. Maybe just following up a bit on leverage and margin. Could you just remind us, you know, given that the short cycle business is, you know, in nature contribution volume. So what's the leverage on those volumes? Is that basically zero, or how should we think of those?
It's not zero. If they didn't contribute, we would not have them. Of course, it's really low margin business, but it gives absorption to cover fixed cost. It is the sort of margin wise the lowest part of our business, and that is where we have the largest demand decrease right now.
Yeah. Okay. Because I was a bit surprised by your mix guidance going into Q4 then, when you guide for basically the same mix as in Q3. Given that we see, obviously, the weakness in contribution volumes while it sounds like oil and gas, higher value added products, you know, still up. Could you comment a bit on how you think about that?
We're pretty short in the long products, pretty short between order intake and revenue. The impact in revenue has more or less already happened in Q3, and that is why we say we expect it to sort of continue on the same pattern into Q4.
Into 2023, if, you know, things stand and at current run rate mix should, you know, be a positive contributor, I suppose.
I mean, 2023 starts to be sort of a bit into the future. What we've said and we still say is that it should be positive, not least from umbilicals. What we see now is that sort of the order delays that we see, we're not really sure when that is increasing again. Over time and that should sort of generate a more positive mix. The project list, as I said before, is larger than we've seen for quite some years.
Sorry if you mentioned that, Göran, my line was a bit patchy. You mentioned that the Capital Markets Day that, you know, let's say that umbilicals by year end should be at 80-90% of a good year or capacity utilization, or something like that. Has that changed given the order load? Is that still the way you look at it, given the order books?
No, I think it will be lower than what I said at the Capital Markets Day. Right now we are roughly on double pace versus last year. I think it's difficult to say when this increase again, but I don't think we will be between 80-90. I think more between 65-70. But that's a speculation from my side. As I said, eventually, customers now need to start booking orders, otherwise there will be capacity issues because there are so many projects on the list.
Another question on cash flow, following up on the previous questions. Just, you know, now you have basically built working capital of SEK 2 billion in the last three quarters. You know, how should we think about that profile now ahead, given that metal prices has been falling quite materially, et cetera? How fast will you be able to release that, if you can give any indication?
I think what Olof has said, I mean, we have pretty long payment terms to our raw material suppliers. That means that we know what payments we're gonna do, the coming months. If we compare what we know we're gonna pay the coming months with what we paid in Q3, that looks positive.
Okay. Yes, thank you very much. I step back in line. Thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star one on your telephone.
Meanwhile, we can take a question from the webcast. It's about the dividend policy. When will you make a decision on dividend, and are you intending to pay an annual dividend or twice annually or quarterly?
Okay. Well, yeah, the dividend policy then is to distribute 50% of the net profit on average over a business cycle. That is what we have communicated. I guess the dividend will be proposed by the board post year-end to the AGM, which will take place in May. If it will be paid annually, twice or four times a year, I guess we will come back on that as I see it.
Operator, do we have any further questions from the call?
There are no more questions at this time.
All right. I think we can close the Q&A session and this call for this quarter. Thank you for all your questions, and thank you for listening. We're looking forward to meeting some of you on our roadshow now. With that, thank you and goodbye.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Bye-bye.
Bye-bye.