Ambea AB (publ) (STO:AMBEA)
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May 7, 2026, 5:29 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Feb 8, 2024

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ambea Interim Report, fourth quarter 2023 conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be the question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone keypad. You will then hear an automatic message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our speaker today, Mark Jensen. Please go ahead.

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

Thank you so much. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Ambea's fourth quarter 2023 report presentation. Speaking is Mark Jensen, CEO of Ambea, and presenting with me today is Benno Eliasson, CFO. I will give you an introduction to the quarter and information on our care receiver satisfaction survey and our work on sustainability. Benno will then describe the development of the financials for the group and for the different business areas in Ambea. After that, I will summarize the quarter and compare to our financial targets before we open for questions. I would like to begin with a brief overview of Ambea. Ambea is Scandinavian leading care provider. We have over 30,000 employees across Sweden, Norway, and Denmark, and revenues of SEK 13.3 billion. We offer a full range of services within elderly care, social care, staffing, and competency solutions.

We have more than 450 municipalities as our clients, and we are an important partner in solving challenges in the welfare system. Let's have a brief look at some of the reasons to invest in Ambea. Ambea deliver value to society, and we aspire to be the most attractive investment in the care sector. From a distance, care providers can look somewhat similar, but at a closer look, there are distinct differences, as you see on this slide. Today, I would like to highlight strong cash flows and stable dividends as one of the main reasons to invest in Ambea. Also because we have a strong track record in this area. Ambea have an asset-light model. That means that over time, most of the earnings are converted to free cash flow. This year, we had a cash conversion from EBITDA of 95%.

The strong cash flow enables us to reinvest into our existing business and into new growth opportunities. Most of our result is invested in growth to meet the growing demand for care. We also invest in competency and leadership development, effective systems, and innovation to constantly improve our care model and work environment. That highlights our ability to provide care that is differentiated by quality, delivers more value for money, and guarantees a trustworthy freedom of choice. Ambea has a dividend policy that implies 30% of the profit after tax is paid as dividends to our shareholders. We have a consistent history of following our dividend policy, which is also the case this year. With that, we aim to provide predictability and reliability to our shareholders. We will now turn to the results of the annual external care receiver surveys.

Quality ultimately arises in the interaction between care receivers and our employees. We always want to make it easy for employees to do the right thing in any given situation, so that they can spend their time on things that creates quality and value. We have a systematic approach to quality and sustainability, where we carefully follow up all our units every month. In the quality report, we highlight some of the activities that we carried out during the last quarter and also relevant KPIs. The satisfaction levels of our care receivers and their loved ones are of the utmost importance to us. In quarter four, we received strong results from care receiver surveys carried out in all three Scandinavian countries. As well as reviewing overall trends, we follow up results and create action plans on a unit-by-unit basis.

In Sweden, where we have national unit surveys, we also publish the results for each care unit on Nytida's and Vardaga's web pages to create transparency and highlight our work on care receiver satisfaction. Surveys are also carried out on a unit level by the National Board of Health in Sweden. These cover areas such as care receiver involvement and influence, employee development, and the various routines in place at each unit. Results for both Nytida and Vardaga remain strong and are at higher levels than for both other private care operators as well as public providers. As with the care receiver survey results, we use the unit results as the basis for tailored action plans in line with our goal of continuous improvement in quality of care. And now over to sustainability. Our focus on sustainability has been further reinforced during quarter four.

In a highly labor-intensive organization, Employee Net Promoter Score is very important. Employee recommendations and referrals are a key recruitment channel for us. It is also a measure of engagement and overall employee satisfaction. It makes us very proud to be able to demonstrate what a positive work culture our employees experience, and this is a foundation of a strong employer brand. As the need for care increases, labor shortages will become an increasing issue in our sector. It is therefore vital for us to support those who do not have a Scandinavian language as their first language. We make sure that new employees have sufficiently strong language skills to perform their work, but also provide a culture where they can develop. One key step has been a collaboration with the Swedish Municipal Workers Union, which includes a training course for language coaches.

This gives them skills and a toolkit to create a culture of learning for language in their workplaces. You can read more about our quality and sustainability work in the quality report, as well as in our annual report. Now, let's have a look at organic growth. In quarter four, the own management pipeline remains strong, and we have 1,158 new beds or placements in pipeline, most of them in Sweden. In Norway and in Denmark, we continue to build our pipeline in segments with good potential and fair commercial terms in line with our updated strategy. The pipeline decreased slightly compared to the previous quarter due to new openings in Nytida, Stendi and Altiden, but is still very strong in an industry perspective.

We have an attractive or an active pipeline in all three markets, and we'll be pleased to see more municipalities welcome private operators to support the much-needed capacity expansion. With several years' time for planning, building permits, and construction, the pace in establishing new care homes must increase to avoid a care crisis approaching 2030. We remain positive that the urgent need for increased supply will lead to more opportunities going forward. Let's have a look at our revenue growth. The organic growth showed in the purple bars increased this quarter. The total organic growth is 7% and stronger than in previous quarters. The effect from the disposal of the doctor staffing business in Klara, which we sold in late 2022, brings acquired divested growth to a minus of 1%.

We remain positive about our overall growth potential in the coming quarters, where both price and mix and volume is expected to contribute. We're also seeking for quality acquisitions that will contribute to total growth, and we see more opportunities for M&A ahead. Now to the highlights of the fourth quarter. I am proud to conclude a challenging year where we at Ambea, in the fourth quarter, improved our profitability and reached an increased organic growth of 7%. Due to a strong demand and operational improvements in Stendi and Vardaga, adjuste EBITDA increased by 68% versus last year. Our group margin improved significantly to 8.4%, compared to 5.3% last year. The organic growth of 7% drives Ambea's revenue growth. We continue to increase our revenues by tender wins, new openings, price increases, and better price mix.

Our cash flow continues to be strong this quarter, which resulted in reduced debts. Free cash flow increased by 47%. The cash flow gives opportunities for acquisitions and for continued active capital allocation. Due to the strong cash flow, the board decided to launch a share buyback program with a maximum of 3 million shares. This is the second consecutive year, year where the board decides on a share buyback program. Further, the board proposes a dividend of 1.5 SEK per share of 2023. And now, over to you, Benno, for a presentation of the financial summary.

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

Thank you, Mark. The solid organic growth we have seen in the last quarter continues, and almost all business areas contribute to the growth. This quarter, net sales grew by 6% in total. Net effects of acquisitions, divestments, and currency was -1, which means that the organic growth was 7% year-on-year. Except for Klara, all business areas show growth in the quarter. Vardaga accounted for more than half of the growth and increased net sales by 11%. Like in previous quarters, there is an increased occupancy trend. Higher prices have also contributed to the revenue growth, and Vardaga started several new contract management units in the quarter. Nytida opened new contract management units as well, and net sales grew by 3%.

Stendi increased revenue by 6% in SEK, but showed growth in local currency by 14% due to a higher demand in children and youth care and due to higher prices. Altiden increased revenue by 5% in SEK, but this growth was mainly currency driven. Klara decreased revenue by 11% due to the divestment of the staffing solutions for doctors and the lower demand in staffing solutions, solution for nurses EBITDA. This slide shows how the different business areas have affected the EBITDA of the group. EBITDA in total grew by 68% compared to the same quarter last year. This increase is thanks to higher occupancy and operational improvements. During the quarter, we also received government grants for energy support, and we generally saw lower energy prices compared to last year. Two of the business areas are particularly strong this quarter.

First one is Vardaga, was up SEK 35 million from improved occupancy, particularly in mature units, operational improvements, and lower staffing costs for new nursing homes, and EBITDA margin was up 2.4 percentage points. The other one is Stendi. Stendi's EBITDA margin was up 5.5 percentage points due to higher occupancy, higher prices, and other operational improvements. This strong improvement resulted totally in SEK 46 million higher EBITDA compared to last year. In other, we saw this year had a positive effect from revaluation of the additional purchase price of an earlier made acquisition by SEK 5 million, while we last year had a restructuring cost in Altiden by SEK 17 million. All in all, the group EBITDA was up SEK 160 million compared to Q4 last year. Operating cash flow increased substantially compared to the same quarter last year.

This reflects the weaker than expected cash flow, cash flow from last quarter, and of course, the strong EBITDA in this quarter. The rolling twelve operating cash flow is roughly at 95% of EBITDA, which means that cash conversion increased as well. This slide shows the way from the rolling twelve reported EBITDA of SEK 1,076 million to the 961 million SEK in EBITDA, excluding IFRS 16, down to the free cash flow post-tax of SEK 612 million. Last year, we had SEK 536 million in free cash flow. We can also see in this slide that we have invested SEK 83 million in fixed assets. We have paid SEK 117 million in interest and SEK 103 million in taxes.

We can also see that you have a negative effect from working capital of SEK 82 million. On this slide, we can see how we used the generated SEK 612 million in free cash flow. SEK 112 million was distributed to our shareholders as dividend, SEK 10 million was spent on acquisitions, and SEK 47 million was spent on the share buyback program last year. Based on our strong cash flow, we could reduce our debts by SEK 464 million. Now, to the overview of the five business areas... We can start with Nytida. Sales increased by 3%, which is mainly driven by new operations in both contract management and own management, as well as higher prices.

EBITDA was higher than last year and increased by 12% to SEK 130 million, due to operational improvement and higher prices. But Nytida also received government grants for electricity support, partly compensated for the higher electricity prices we had back in 2022. EBITDA margin in the quarter landed at 12.8%, and rolling twelve EBITDA now trend at 13.7. In Vardaga, net sales increased by 11% year-on-year, driven by higher occupancy, higher prices, and new contract management units. Own management portfolio increased net sales by 9%, and contract management portfolio increased net sales by 15%. EBITDA ended at SEK 88 million, which was significantly higher than last year, up 66%. Vardaga continues to compensate for underlying cost pressure by higher occupancy, particularly in mature units.

Further, we saw lower starting cost, startup cost, and lower energy costs compared to last year. Like in Nytida, Vardaga received government grants for electricity support relating to 2022. Mature units show a margin of 9.8%, two and a half percentage points higher than the average margin for Vardaga total units. And Vardaga has the end of Q4 balanced contracts, net of SEK 65 million in upcoming annual net revenue, which will contribute to future revenue and EBITDA growth, of course. On next slide, we shift to Norway for an overview of Stendi. In Stendi, net sales increased by 6% in SEK, but 14% in local currency, due to higher occupancy and higher prices. Stendi also opened seven new assisted living facilities with a total of 18 beds during the quarter.

We saw an exceptionally strong demand for children and youth care in the quarter, and occupancy has now stabilized into the new year. Our own managed portfolio increased net sales by 14% in local currency, with growth in all sub-segments. Increased EBITDA in Stendi was 46 million, up to 70 million SEK. EBITDA margin in the quarter increased significantly to 8.7%. We see a continuous margin growth in Stendi, thanks to the higher occupancy and the higher prices, but also an effect of operational improvements, which gave full effect from Q3 last year and have continued to deliver since then. Rolling 12 margin increased to 6.8%, which is up three percentage points from the 3.8 we saw in 2022. Turning to Altiden. Altiden net sales grew by 5% in SEK.

In local currency, net sales was flat. In Q4, the EBITDA was SEK -14 million, SEK 2 million better than last year. EBITDA in Q4 was impacted by high staffing costs due to an increased sick leave level in Q4, which was widely impacting the total Danish labor market. Altiden's underlying profitability still needs to be improved, and we could see some operational improvement in the quarter. Improvement measures implemented are now starting to gain effect to turn around the financial performance and to drive profitability going forward. We expect that these improvement measures will continue to take gradual effect in 2024 and generate a year-on-year financial performance improvement the coming quarters.

In Klara, net sales decreased by 11%, which was expected as we have divested a staffing solution for doctors last year, but we also saw a weaker demand in staffing solution for nurses even in this quarter. And EBITDA decreased by SEK 4 million to SEK 14 million due to the lower net sales. The EBITDA margin reached 12.1%, and the rolling twelve EBITDA margin is now at 11.9%. And, with that, back to you, Mark.

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

Thank you, Benno. So to sum up our financial development versus our targets, our growth target is 8%-10% through a combination of organic and acquired growth. We have not reached our growth target in the fourth quarter with 5% growth rolling twelve. However, despite no acquired growth, our annual organic growth is at high 6%. We remain active when it comes to acquisitions, and over time, I'm confident that the growth target can be reached as a combination of organic and acquired growth. The coming quarters, we aim to prioritize acquisitions as the market is now more active, and we see better potential for qualitative bolt-on acquisitions. The leverage level is 2.2x EBITDA in quarter four, which is much below our financial target, thanks to increased EBITDA.

We expect our solid cash conversion to continue, which gives us potential to grow and leads to financial flexibility. Free cash flow will be used for dividends according to our policy, bolt-on acquisitions, debt reduction, and the share buyback program. Looking at the profitability target, we have a mid-term adjusted EBITDA target of 9.5%, which we have not yet reached. But we are on our way with an increased EBITDA margin of one, sorry, of 8.1% rolling 12. And before we open for questions, I would like to provide an outlook post quarter four, 2023. Ambea stands well positioned to meet an expected high demand for our care services. In line with our updated strategy for future-proof care, we continue to invest in leadership development and additional competency development, competency development for our operational staff.

We are further improving our quality model through investing in a new group-wide digital workplace, which we have started to roll out early this year, and a modern and improved quality management system for all business areas. We also continue to invest in energy efficiency initiatives to lower both operating costs and CO2 emissions. Ambea's solid organic growth is expected to continue through increased demand, new openings, and also price increases. We also expect a more active M&A agenda. The share buyback program starts in quarter one, 2024, with a maximum of 3 million shares as part of an active capital allocation. According to our dividend policy, the board proposed a dividend of SEK 1.5 per share, compared to SEK 1.25 per share last year, due to the improved earnings per share.

Finally, I would like to highlight the strong contribution from all of our employees in a challenging year with high inflation and pressure from the macroeconomy. Due to their ability to execute our plans and continue to innovate, we managed to provide quality care to a growing number of care receivers and simultaneously strengthen our financial performance. This is part of the role we hold as a private care provider to improve the overall welfare system and support the municipalities in providing a secure and sustainable care for all. Through multiple examples, our teams have shown practices that could form or improve practices for other, and that we happily share also with the public sector. A well-balanced welfare mix, where both public, not-for-profit, and private operators contribute based on relative strength, is needed to meet future demand, and we are ready and also motivated to increase our contribution.

With that, I conclude our presentation and open for questions.

Operator

Thank you, dear participants. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad and wait for a name to be announced. To withdraw a question, please press star one one again. Please stand by, we'll compile the Q&A roster. This will take a few moments. Now we're going to take our first question, and it comes from the line of David Johansson from Nordea Markets. Your line is open, please ask your question.

David Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea Markets

Hi, good morning, and congrats on the nice end to the year here. So first, circling back to your comments on Stendi, looking at the developments on occupancy and positive price mix here, how do you see these factors kind of playing out now for 2024? And how much more can you do on the occupancy side, and some, I think some comments on cost compensation, I think, would also be helpful. I'll leave it there for my first question.

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

Yeah. So thank you for that, and thanks for your nice feedback. So when it comes to the demand in the Norwegian market, as we stated, we have been somewhat surprised of the high demand towards the end of the year. And that demand has not continued to increase into the new year, but it's rather stabilized at the high level into 2024. As some of the placements we have, we have been able to meet, most of them actually are in children's and youth care. It's a little difficult to predict how that will look going forward. But we see no signs that the demand will be lower, as we see it now.

But we also know that some of these placements are of a shorter character, so they would not necessarily be for a long time, but can be for a shorter time, meaning that some of them might end this year, some of them might end next year. But we have a good relationship with our municipalities in Norway, and the team have shown tremendous strength in their ability to meet the increase in care need. So should kind of demand increase further, of course, we will do our utmost to support the municipalities and also catering for that, for such an increase. But we see no such signs at the moment, rather a stable occupancy into the new year.

In terms of prices, for 2024, Benno, would you comment on that?

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

Yeah, overall, we see that the predicted price increases and our cost increases are relatively balanced this year. We saw a little bit more negative balance going into 2023. Going into 2024, we see that that development is more balanced than we had one year ago.

David Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea Markets

Thank you. I appreciate the clarity there. And on Nytida, it looks to me like you're still losing some beds in the quarter. And if I remember correctly here, you have opened two new assisted living facilities, which I guess you expect to sort of improve occupancy ahead. Should we think of this as bed kind of bottoming out now for Nytida, or how should we think about growth here in 2024? Thank you.

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

So we still expect to see some growth in Nytida, but it is a large business area with many different care services. It's a little more than 20 different care services. Some of them are short term by nature, and some of them are longer term by nature. So some fluctuation you can see month-on-month or quarter-on-quarter, which is not kind of material, but that's just the way that segment is. We expect to see some improvement in occupancy during the year, and we also have new openings coming in throughout 2024.

Some assisted living facilities, they are not obviously the same size as Vardaga's care units, so often we would open units with six beds in Nytida, where the Vardaga units are typically 60 beds. So that's of course a huge difference to that. But some improvement in occupancy during 2024, we expect to see in Nytida, but not material.

David Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea Markets

Thank you for that. And just a last one on Altiden. I apologize if I continue to harp on this, but your comments now sort of indicate improvements in the next few quarters. But obviously, given the weak result now, maybe I wouldn't assume profitability to come back maybe later in 2024. So maybe you could just walk us through your assumptions here, and what are some of the key drivers now looking at Altiden, specifically for next year? Thanks.

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

... So basically, our assumptions haven't changed from last quarter in terms of Altiden's future performance. We still expect financial improvement quarter-over-quarter, and we also expect a positive EBITDA in 2024. There is a large seasonality effect in Denmark, where quarter three is hugely important for the annual result. So obviously, that's the big test for us, quarter three. And we are working on many different areas in order to improve the operation in Denmark. We see some signs of operation improvement in this quarter already, and we expect that to continue into the coming quarters. What we do is a wide range of things, everything from strengthening competency in our teams. It's about making sure that we improve occupancy.

It's about systems and platforms. So there are many things which we have been working on during 2023, and which is kind of looking better and better, as we have moved now into 2024. But it will still take time, and we will see... We will not see a positive result in quarter one for sure, but we still have the same expectation as we communicated last quarter, in terms of Altiden's performance.

David Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea Markets

Thank you for that. Those were my questions.

Operator

Thank you.

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

Thank you.

Operator

Now we're gonna take our next question. The next question comes from the line of Kristofer Liljeberg from Carnegie. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, Carnegie

Yeah, thank you, and good morning. I have three questions. First, I think I need some help here, how to forecast Norway margins going forward. I guess there must have been some extra short-term effect on margin and volumes, surprise positively like this, but at the same time, for the full-year, you're almost at the target, which if I remember correctly, is 7%-8%. Do you think it's fair to assume that you can reach this target now already in 2024?

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

I can take the first one. There is no one-offs in the result that we presented in Norway in the fourth quarter. So the SEK 70 million is underlying, so to speak. But we have seen a exceptionally strong demand in the quarter, and all our, you can say, high-value units have been filled up, so there was an extreme positive effect of that on the EBITDA this quarter. We see that we still see a strong demand, but of course, this margin, well, we don't expect to see every quarter as we have now in Norway, so this is extraordinary in the quarter.

If we look at the full-year margin, we of course see that from this strong quarter that we have now, that the level that we can reach, that we have said could be market level, like 7.5%-8%, that could be reached earlier than we previously thought, and we still haven't changed our mind on what the potential margin are in Norway. That is still in that range.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, Carnegie

Okay, but do you think there's a... Given this exceptional Q4, do you see a risk that margins in Norway will be lower than in 2024 than full-year 2023?

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

No, we don't see that as a risk, no.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, Carnegie

Okay, thanks. And then, when it comes to Vardaga margin, also very strong improvement here, particularly in the second half of the year. Do you think it's possible to continue to improve Vardaga margin in 2024, given that you have reached pretty high occupancy level now in that segment?

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

Yes, we think it's possible to improve the margins in 2024 further, in Vardaga as well, that we can still improve occupancy, and we have won a lot of contracts in contract management as well. So we think that there is a possibility to increase from this, even from this level in 2024.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, Carnegie

Okay, fine. And the last one for me, when it comes to Denmark and the timing of the turnaround, did you say that you expect year-over-year improvements already from the first quarter? And-

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

Okay.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, Carnegie

Should we expect a negative or positive result for Denmark in 2024?

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

We expect to see a positive improvement quarter-on-quarter already from Q1, and we expect a positive EBITDA for the full-year 2024.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, Carnegie

Great.

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

Exactly as we communicated last quarter. Mm-hmm. Yeah.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, Carnegie

Okay. Thank you very much.

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. The question comes to the line of Jacob Lemke from SEB. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Jakob Lembke
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, SEB

Hi, and good morning. My first question is on Vardaga, where you mentioned that occupancy development was sort of strongest in the beginning of the quarter. Does that mean that you're entering Q1 at a slightly lower occupancy level than Q4?

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

No, we don't have a lower occupancy in the end of the quarter than in the start of the quarter, but the development was better in the beginning of the quarter, say October.

Jakob Lembke
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, SEB

... Okay, and then on CapEx, or investments, quite low level here in Q4. I'm just wondering a bit of what is sort of the normalized CapEx level you see for 2024, perhaps in comparison to the 2023 level?

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

Yeah, if we look at the level we have in 2023, it's related to that we don't have so many new openings in 2023, and we expect a little bit more opening pace in 2024. So probably the investments in CapEx will be a little bit higher in 2024 than 2023.

Jakob Lembke
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, SEB

Okay. And then lastly, if you could provide some guidance here on the net interest going into 2024 with sort of I know you have hedged some of your debt, and now you're also reducing debt at a quite high level. So-

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

Yeah

Jakob Lembke
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, SEB

What you're seeing there?

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

We have, we made a lot of hedges, as you said, back in the days where the interest rates were really low, back in 2021 and beginning of 2022. These are now running out in the beginning of 2024, so we will pay more of a market level of the interest level. On the same time, as you said, we have a little bit lower debt now than we have, but the first factor is more important than the second one. So we will see higher costs for capital in the coming quarters than we have seen in 2023.

Jakob Lembke
Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare, SEB

Okay. That's very clear. And that's all the question for me. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. Now we're going to take our next question, and it comes from the line of Karl- Johan Bonnevier from DNB Markets. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Yes, good morning, Mark and Benno. First of all, congratulations to a very solid execution of 2023 and a good finish to the year. Just if you could allude a little to how you see the pipeline in Vardaga, the about 1,000 units that you have under construction for the moment. Have there been any changes to the ones you want to say minimize or get out of that backlog to neutralize the cost of it? And have any of those come back into say more active, where you might see them coming into openings?

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

Thank you very much for the feedback. So when it comes to the Vardaga pipeline, it hasn't changed much since last quarter. You could say the quality of the pipeline remains intact. There are no changes to the units that we haven't opened. We are in dialogues with some of them in order to see, you know, what we can do. We expect that there will be some changes to that during the year, but no agreements made so far.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

You have alluded to it already. You very helpfully produced this bridge for the components that's gonna take you from, say, the 8% level up to 9.5. With the kind of development you've now seen here during 2023, is there any of those components that you see a bigger opportunity in or smaller than before?

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

Not really. I mean, that still stands. And the three main building blocks, so increased profitability in Vardaga and in Stendi and in Altiden, and that still counts. Of course, Stendi has improved faster than anticipated. And so kind of what they have left to kind of deliver in order for us as a total group to reach 9.5% EBITDA margin is not as much as it was, of course, in previous quarters. But there's still some room, as Benno also mentioned earlier, in an earlier question, to improve the margins in Norway. And that is still the expectation. And then, of course, margin expansion in Vardaga and the turnaround in Denmark will lead us to 9.5%.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Sounds solid. Then, not so good working capital release in Q4. Is there something more to come there, or are we back to what you would say, normalized levels?

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

I would say that we are on normalized level. Well, well, as you said, a little bit negative in full-year, but I think we are at normal levels now. There will, however, be a little bit more fluctuation in the working capital going forward because of how the calendar looks like. We have, like, the Q1 cut is in the middle of the Easter holiday, for example. There could be some variation between the first and second quarter last year, but overall, we are at a level that we think are sustainable going forward.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

But no real changes to the underlying business when it comes to payment patterns or anything like that? It should be fairly stable over time, over the longer term.

Benno Eliasson
CFO, Ambea

Yeah, for sure.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Excellent. And looking at the buyback program, just to... So I get it clear here with the annual general meeting 2024 and 2025 and these kind of things, the program is supposed to run on up until the AGM this year, 2024. Is that correct?

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

That's correct, yes.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Excellent. And looking at... You mentioned the super strong balance sheet you now have, if you—at least if I compare to the history of the company. Bolt-on opportunities, where would you see those coming in to the larger degree? And would it be new markets you would be looking for as well here, or would it be within the current kind of footprint of the company?

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

So we are mainly looking for bolt-on acquisitions to our existing business areas, and with a focus on social care in Sweden and bolt-on, qualitative bolt-on acquisitions to Nytida. This is where our main focus is, and this is also where we see most opportunities are.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

I guess that's where you also historically have had the best kind of return levels, isn't it, so?

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

Absolutely.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Excellent. No, thank you very much, and all the best out there.

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

Thank you so much. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Dear participants, just a quick reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mark Jensen for any closing remarks.

Mark Jensen
CEO, Ambea

Thank you so much, and thank you all for calling in. The Quarter One report for 2024 will be published on May 3. Have a nice day, all of you. Stay safe and healthy.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.

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