AQ Group AB (publ) (STO:AQ)
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May 13, 2026, 12:59 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Feb 15, 2024

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Okay, welcome to the investor presentation for AQ Group for quarter four, 2023. Glad to see so many here. There's lots of reports today, so interesting that so many of you decide to join our call. Let's go. Slow. First, we start with why we believe that you should invest in AQ Group. We have an earnings per share CAGR of 15% over the past 10 years. We made profit every quarter since the foundation in 1994. We have exposure to industrial market segments with underlying growth, including electrification, data centers, and defense. We have more as well, but these are the ones that I will highlight today. And then we have a long history of acquisitions. We've bought two to four factories per year.

We haven't done so many last couple of years because of the high organic growth, but we will get into that later in the presentation. Then we have an extremely strong balance sheet with a very low net debt. And fourth quarter, October to December 2023, in brief, so we have a very strong cash flow, and our board propose a double dividend SEK 6.66 per share. And the net sales increased by 12% compared to the same quarter last year to which is a little bit below our goal of 15% growth. We have an operating profit increased with 30% to SEK 193 million compared to SEK 148 million the quarter before, and our EBIT margin was 8.2%.

Profit after tax was the same quarter-over-quarter, and the cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK 240 million. Earnings per share before dilution was SEK 7.32. We get into a little bit profit after tax later on as well. The full year in brief, it was a record year for AQ in 2023. We increased our net sales with 27% to very close to SEK 9 billion, which was our target for the year. It is way above our target of growing with 15%. The EBIT was 61% increased compared to the year before, to almost SEK 800 million. The profit margin before tax for the full year was 8.4%, which is above our target of 8%.

The profit after tax also increased quite substantially, and the cash flow from operating activities was excellent, with SEK 980 million, which is above our target, because normally we say it should be similar to the EBIT, but we have been good in managing our inventories. Earnings per share before dilution was SEK 34.57, which is a big increase compared to SEK 22.43 the year before. Our equity ratio is way above our target, which is 40%, so it is 63% at the end of the year. As I said before, the board proposes a dividend of SEK 6.66 per share, which is double from the year before. The number of the beast. Earnings per share growth slide with the AQ rocket; it is looking very nice.

What we can say in quarter four, though, is that we had a little bit higher tax in quarter four, 2023 versus quarter four in 2022 due to earnings geography. What do we mean by that? It is different tax rate in different countries, and that some of the countries that we operate in have higher tax than others. So in the quarter four this year, we made more profit in countries with higher tax, but also we have decided to take dividend in certain countries where into the group where you have to pay tax on the dividend. We've done that now. So it is, I think if you look at the full year, then the tax rate is rather normal and same, 2023 versus 2022.

But anyway, I think this chart is really beautiful, so let's watch it for one second more, and then we go to next one. Net sales in the quarter was okay, I think. We grew with 12.5%, but it's below our target, and there also 4% was currency. People who are fast in math then know that organic growth was 8% in the quarter compared to the same quarter last year. We still have some productivity constraints in Finland and Poland and in some parts of Sweden, where we're not delivering out everything that we should. We look at it when we look at the on-time delivery as well.

And also some of our customers postponed a little bit, their products that they took out from us, to quarter one instead of quarter four. And the increases this year is mainly in electrification, defense, industry, commercial vehicles, and marine. So if you look at the organic growth, then, it was, as I said, a little bit lower than our target of 10%. And, two customers really have postponed some products from quarter four to quarter one, so we should see that in quarter one instead. And the main part of the growth was electrification, defense, commercial vehicles, and marine. The main countries where we deliver the growth from, so it's not to, it's from, is, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Sweden, U.S.A., and, Finland in the quarter.

Quite a good growth, but it's not really at our target level, so we're a little bit disappointed, can I say? Acquired growth, zero. It is not where we want to be, but we have a good list. We have several targets. Some are close, some are not. And I say the same thing as I did last quarter, we should be disappointed if we don't close anything before quarter two, 2024. I leave it at that. And the margin is above our target, but just above. I can say I'm disappointed in the margin in quarter four, even though we reach our target. We have had struggles with some customers to deliver out.

We have also had some internal quality issues that we have had to rectify during the quarter, which has pressed our margin a little bit down. We have implemented process improvements that should improve the situation going forward. We have opportunities to improve on our margin in India, China, Mexico, Finland, and Hungary as we see it. They are below our target level. Inventory, we have been working very hard with inventory basically since 2021, where the inventory increased a lot. I can say we are quite pleased that we have not reached our target of 3.5 turns per year, but we're currently now at 3.2, which is very much better than at the start of the year, when we were at 2.3, I believe.

The main reason for having high inventory turnover is to reduce the risk of obsolescence in the inventory, but also, of course, to generate a good cash flow. I'm happy with this smiley mouth that we see here. Net cash from operating activities continue to be very good, and it has been good the whole year, as I mentioned before. In the quarter, it was SEK 239 million, and our net debt, excluding IFRS 16, is now SEK 25 million. I don't promise anything, but I believe that our net debt will be, we will not have any net debt in quarter one. I think it's easy to see unless we do any big investments. Quality and delivery precision, I want to mention a little bit about that today.

So our On-Time Delivery is below our target of 98%. Our result for the quarter is 91.35%, which is a little bit better than the last quarter, but it's still very disappointed, disappointing. We have made big investments to increase capacity, and we have hired a lot of people, bought machines, and added square meters to be able to deliver to our customers. But you can't argue that it's very hard to have a very good On-Time Delivery when you're growing almost 30% of your business. However, we see that the trend is starting to improve, and in December, we reached 92.6%. Still, we have problems, but I believe that going into next year, we will see better numbers here.

We have a number of projects for certain sites and certain customers in order to improve this metric and make the customers more happy. Now I want to comment on something that we have put up in the report. Regarding our battery systems facility in Bulgaria, we have done a very fast ramp-up during 2023 with one large customer. We have delivered out a large number of battery systems for them, and there are several projects. I think it is 10 projects or so we have delivered during 2023. We do not believe that our internal quality has been satisfactory. There has been a lot of issues, and we have had delays due to that.

So in December, in November and December, we had a lot of efforts in improving the quality in our processes, and we managed to deliver out all the projects with good quality at the end of December. But this customer is not happy, and we have no new projects with this customer in 2024. We hope that this will change, but currently, that is the way it is. And we will utilize this capacity, of course, then for other customers. So we have ramp ups, two ramp ups in this factory during 2024. And it is one battery system. It's really two battery systems, customers that we will ramp up with there. So that will be fun, but we are not happy with this, of course, and this is the things that can happen.

We really took a little bit of a chance. The customer wanted us to improve, increase the capacity faster than we could, really. So I'm actually really proud of my team that we managed to deliver out as much as we did in 2023, but still, customer is not satisfied. That is the way it can be. Projects for future growth and outlook going forward. See, I'm running a little bit late here. So we still see a huge demand in electrification. I have some pictures there for some different, it is everything from, big charging stations for trucks and buses to solar inverters to drives for motors and also for underwater transmission of electrical power. We see that we are also growing in data centers.

We are working with one of the bigger cooling companies in to cool data centers that it is on the left there. We are building the enclosures for them in Bulgaria. We have won a big order for transformers for data centers in the U.S. It is the picture in the middle. It is for one power company that do power systems for data centers. And on the right, it is super capacitors for it is for balancing of the grid, but it will also be used for data centers, and this is a super capacitor racks with super capacitor inside. A super capacitor is really a battery that is really fast.

So when people want to surf the internet a lot, when there is some cute puppy or something on TikTok, and a lot of people need to surf the internet at the same time, then they need a lot of power, and we are helping one of our customers to build those. So that is really fun, and we believe that this business segment of our this segment of our business will grow going forward, even though it's not huge today. It is roughly, I would say, SEK 100 million today, something like this. Then defense, I have to mention. I think we grew our defense business by 223% in 2023.

We believe that it will continue to grow, and roughly now it has gone from being 0.5% of our turnover to 2% of our turnover. And it is a sheet metal system components and some inductive components and wire harnesses that we deliver into this market segment. And unfortunately, this will continue to grow because there is a lot of war in the world, and countries need to defend themselves, and we are happy to support democratic countries with equipment to defend themselves. And basically, that was that. So now we come to the interesting part, which is the Q&A. I suggest that you raise your hand, and then we can take some questions. Yes, Carl, please.

Speaker 2

Hi. Hi, good morning, James.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Good morning.

Speaker 2

All is good. Just maybe if we start off here with a question on the deliveries that was postponed from Q4 to Q1.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Yes.

Speaker 2

Is it possible to quantify approximately how much that was?

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

I would say it's roughly SEK 50 million.

Speaker 2

Okay. That should come in the first quarter of 2024?

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

I expect it to come in quarter one. Yes.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Yes, and then on the battery storage customer, we have problems here.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Yeah.

Speaker 2

I was wondering, you said you had SEK 200 million-SEK 250 million in sales in 2023 for this customer.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Yeah.

Speaker 2

Just on the, what do you expect from the new customers coming in? I guess it's the plant in Bulgaria where you need to fill capacity, where you said you have two new startup projects.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Yes.

Speaker 2

Can that compensate for that, or is it a little bit lower, the new ones?

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

I would say in the long term, yes. I'm not sure if it will compensate for that in 2024. But I believe that we, I think we have a lot of things that are growing, as I've tried to show as well.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Yeah.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

I think it will not compensate fully in 2024 for that, in that factory.

Speaker 2

Okay. Yeah, yeah.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

If we are able to do that, then it is going faster than I think. And normally, this kind of ramp-ups take longer time than you believe, so.

Speaker 2

Yeah. And then I just have a question on the, like the pricing of or the price mix here going forward.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Yeah.

Speaker 2

I think you have discussed that you are gonna be more aggressive on, you know, keeping prices up or even raising prices to customers. Is that still your, your view here going into 2024, or are you seeing any changes in that?

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

No, I think we are still striving for, I think, 3%-5% on price increase in 2023. Of course, it is selected customers where we believe that we have not been—that where we see that the costs are increasing. I think it will not have a big margin effect. I don't expect it to be so, but to compensate for where costs are increasing, for sure. And, even though inflation has gone down in several countries, we still see quite high inflation in several of the markets where we have factories.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

So we definitely need to get compensated for that.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Clear. And then just the last question from my side, I think the million-dollar question, even though you lost this customer or you will get no more projects from this customer, do you think you still can reach 15% top line growth for 2024?

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Well, let's say it like this. We and I think I have tried to say it before as well, we will not reach it without extremely hard work from our employees, and also, we will need to make acquisitions in order to reach it, for sure.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Yeah.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

So it is dependent on that we are successful in our deal-making, and that my fantastic employees are able to deliver like they have been doing now for the last, I think, three years, very high growth. So I think it is definitely possible. But I will not-

Speaker 2

Let's revisit in one year.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Yeah.

Speaker 2

You sound pretty confident on M&A.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Forward-looking statements.

Speaker 2

No.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

But, I believe in what we are doing. I believe in our business model and how we are... I think it is proven. So, I believe that we can do it.

Speaker 2

Sounds good. That's all from me. Thank you.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Thank you. Any more questions? Yeah, 10 minutes more. So if there are not any more questions, then I-

Speaker 2

I can take Carl here again. Can I just ask a question on the cash flow?

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Yeah.

Speaker 2

I mean, you have tied up a lot of working capital here during the last two years when you grew a lot.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Yes.

Speaker 2

Do you think are you at normal levels now in terms of, cash conversion and inventory turnover, et cetera, or do you think it's possible to improve it even more?

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

It is absolutely possible to improve it more. I think once we reach 3.5, which is the target for this year, then we will change the target to 4. I believe that we see that several of our factories are way above 4 in inventory turnover with good on-time delivery. So if we have good order in our planning, both production planning and inventory planning and purchasing, then we can definitely be at 4. So I want the inventory to be lower and the cash conversion to be better.

Speaker 2

Yeah. And is it possible, one question also on China, which is slightly weak this week here in the quarter, is that a Q4, or was it weak already in the previous quarter? So can you maybe quantify how much China is down or your Chinese factories? Because I guess you have mostly Chinese customers there.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Yeah. I mean, I actually two weeks ago I mean we are celebrating AQ 30-year anniversary this year, and it was also the Chinese New Year party, so we had a chance to have some fun as well. But it is the Year of the Dragon, and I have lived in China for 10 years, and Year of the Dragon is always a great year in China. So I believe that we will grow in China, and we will improve profits in China in 2024. We see that. I see in my factories that China has woken up now from the slumber after COVID. So I believe that 2024 will be a comeback year for China. That is my prediction.

You don't have to trust me because everybody says something else, but I, I think China is a good bet this year.

Speaker 2

Sounds good. Yeah.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Yeah.

Speaker 2

I think that's all from me.

James Ahrgren
CEO, AQ Group

Thanks. Okay, if there are no further questions, then I thank you for listening, and I wish you a good Thursday. Thank you so much.

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