ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (STO:ASSA.B)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Apr 26, 2023

Björn Tibell
Head of Investor Relations, ASSA ABLOY

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the presentation of ASSA ABLOY's First Interim Report in 2023. My name is Björn Tibell. I'm heading Investor Relations, and joining me here are ASSA ABLOY CEO Nico Delvaux and our CFO, Erik Pieder. We will start now with a summary of the report, and then we will open up for your questions, and we plan to round up in about 1 hour's time. With that, I'd like to hand over to you, Nico.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Thank you, Björn, and also good morning from my side. We can report a very strong start of the year with a very good organic sales growth of 8%, 4% volume and 4% price, with all divisions contributing in a positive way. With another very strong quarter for the Americas division and also a very strong quarter for Global Technologies, as well on the HID side as on the Global Solutions side. Very good complementary growth through acquisitions of 5% in line with our ambition. Very strong execution on the operational side, with very good volume leverage of 33% and EBIT margin of 16% and an EBIT of SEK 5.2 billion , almost 30% up.

Very good income statement-wise. I think also very good work on the balance sheet side and therefore also a significant improved operating cash flow, record cash flow for Q1. We signed four acquisitions in the quarter, and we launched our ninth Manufacturing Footprint Program. If you look at the numbers, sales at SEK 32.4 billion, 22% up, 8% organic, like I mentioned, 5% growth through acquisitions, and 9% helped by currency. An EBITDA margin of 16.6% and an EBIT margin of 16%. EBIT up 30% at SEK 5.2 billion and EPS up 29%.

If you look a little bit at the different regions, starting with North America, continued strong North America despite a very difficult comparison, double digit, 11% organic growth in that part of the world. I think you see a bit, two realities. You have seen in Q1 definitely an important slowdown on new build, residential affecting our garage door business in North America, affecting our perimeter security residential part of the fencing business, and definitely also affecting our window hardware business that we sell to OEMs in that part of the world. We have also seen a bit of a deceleration of the R&R side on residential.

Uh, but despite that, uh, um, Americas has continued to post high, uh, single digit, uh, uh, organic growth for mechanical, uh, residential. And then on the commercial side, we continue to see good, uh, strong, uh, momentum, also with our specification business still up, uh, double, uh, digit. South America, uh, zero percent growth. It's mainly related to, uh, uh, comparison on, on projects from, from HID, um, the same quarter a year ago, because if you look only at the Americas, they had still good, uh, higher single digit, uh, organic, uh, growth. I would say despite some of, uh, the political challenges we see, uh, in South America and despite also here the difficult comparison with, uh, a year ago.

Europe, + 4%, very similar picture as in North America, where we have seen new build residential going down significantly and also R&R on the residential side weaker, but a continued strong commercial part. As we are more exposed to residential in Europe, around 40%-45% of our business in Europe is residential, you see that also more in the organic growth number. A good Africa, +3%. A strong Australia, New Zealand, +11%, thanks to strong Entrance Systems and strong HID, mainly because there also our geographical division was negatively affected by the window hardware OEM business that we have in Australia and in New Zealand

Asia, +10%, where we still had negative, low single digit growth in China, much less negative growth than we experienced over the last couple of years, where we are also confident that China is slowly bottoming out and hopefully, confidently, we will see China to slowly start to grow again in the second half of this year. A very strong India and Middle East and Southeast Asia contributing to the 10% organic growth in that part of the world. 8% as a group, 7% in emerging markets when it comes to organic growth. Now some market highlights for the quarter. Also this quarter, again, nice important project wins for HID, for instance.

Mobile access credentials for a very nice, innovative new building, the Bishopgate building in London that we visited with my management team a couple of months ago. I must say, fantastic new modern building with a lot of new technology. Really good example of how to work in a modern way in the future. 10,000 eCLIQ cylinders in the DACH region for an energy utility company. Big, nice order. Also worth mentioning, several good residential and commercial project in South Korea. Our R&D efforts continue to pay off also this quarter. We won several awards.

I was myself at BAU beginning of last week, where we got the product of the year award from the most reputable magazine in our industry for our security door closer solution. Then you can see several new product launches and extending our products and solutions also this quarter. The last but not least, also partnership with Luxer One venture, where we, you know, invest and seek funding for small startups in the locker space. Also stimulating our Lecture One locker business in North America. If we then look at the organic growth, it's now 9 consecutive quarters, again, with strong positive organic growth.

That strong positive organic growth is complemented with good growth through acquisition, especially in the last three quarters. Really acceleration of our top line. Then our bottom line really coming back really towards that 16%-17% bandwidth. We are now at 15.6% EBIT margin on a 12-month moving trend. Better operating margin, acceleration of top line, therefore strong acceleration of our operating profit. We signed four acquisitions in the quarter. They represent an annualized sales of around SEK 440 million. Then we are still working on HHI. The court case has started there this Monday. We expect there an outcome later this quarter towards the end of the quarter.

Perhaps a couple of words on Mottura, an Italian acquisition. Very happy with that acquisition because Italy was still a bit of white spot. Where we were not a strong player yet. Through this exciting acquisition, we become one of the leaders on the residential space in Italy. They have a sales of around SEK 300 million, and it's a very strong brand name and a very nice product range. If we then go into the different divisions, starting with EMEIA, an organic sales of 3%, with strong growth in Middle East, India and Africa, good growth in the Nordics and in Central Europe, and then stable growth in U.K., Ireland and South Europe.

There, like I explained, you should see a bit difference between residential and commercial. Residential, definitely new build, was challenging in the quarter. Commercial, still, strong momentum. You also see that we report slightly different than before. That is because we reorganized this division in five regions. We have a Nordic region covering Scandinavia and Finland. We have a region, U.K. and Ireland. We have a central region covering DACH, Benelux and East Europe. We have a South Europe covering Spain, Italy, Portugal, France and Greece. We have an emerging region covering Middle East, India and Africa.

The idea of that new setup that is effective as of the 1st of January this year is to seek more synergies within the different regions to be even faster and even more agile than we were already in the past. Operating margin of 13.8%. A good operating leverage, compensating for the high inflation, general inflation, labor inflation, energy cost inflation, and offsetting through price increases, also partly the material cost. Negative FX 60 base points because of weaker SEK and then also dilution from an M&A 20 base points.

We then go to Americas, another very strong quarter with double digit, 11% organic sales growth with all countries and all business areas, I would say, contributing, with the exception of U.S. smart residential, where it's more a timing issue, where our two biggest customers did not place orders and we did not realize sales in the quarter. It just, you know, depending on when the timing is of those bigger orders, we should not read too much negative news in that. We also had the sales decline in electromechanical solutions. That was because of a difficult comparison with a year ago and because of some electronic component shortages.

But again, also there, if you look at our overwhelming business in general in Americas, it was up very strong double digits, so still very good momentum. An operating margin of 21.7%, very strong performance, very strong operating leverage, good strong execution. FX 10 basis points dilution and M&A 80 basis points dilution. That is the acquisition cost for HHI, which amounted to 114 million SEK in the quarter. If we then go to the third geographical division, Opening Solutions Asia Pacific, organic sales growth of 6%, thanks to a very strong sales growth in South Korea and strong sales growth in Southeast Asia.

Like I mentioned, a smaller sales decline in China, only small single digit, and then also sales decline in Pacific, mainly because of our window hardware business. Operating margin of 4.6% versus 3.5% a year ago. Good strong operating leverage, also helped by FX 80 basis points because of the strong Australian dollar and then dilution from M&A 20 basis points. We then go to the geographical divisions and perhaps the highlight of the quarter, Global Technologies, organic sales growth of 24% with all business areas as well in HID as in Global Solutions, contributing in a strong way to the top line, with the exception of Extended Access and Secure Issuance.

Very good operating margin of 16.8%, where we were, of course, helped by the mix on one way in the sense that we continue to further invoice the backlog that we build up on our PACS business, our cards and readers business. That's the more profitable part of our Global Technologies business. On the Global Solutions side, very good recovery of the hospitality business with a very strong team, strong leadership doing very nice things. They also had now, again, volume levels where they contribute in a good way to the bottom line.

Like I said, on one side of that, we should not remember that, if you look at it, the mobility-related businesses in this division, that Citizen Identity is still very much lower level than prior to COVID-19, despite even the growth in the quarter, and that we continue to have challenges also on the profitability side on Citizen Identity. Yes, we have a positive mix, but we also have some other items affecting the result in a negative way. 16.8%, I think is a very good result for Q1. Helped also by FX 90 basis points because of the stronger US dollar, and then M&A 40 basis points dilution.

Last but not least, Entrance Systems, a continued organic sales of 3% despite a very difficult comparison. You see there that, you know, pedestrian industrial are taking over a bit as a growth engine from residential and perimeter that have, of course, very difficult comparisons now compared to a year ago. Also, very happy to see a double-digit growth on service over-delivering on our ambition of growing service high single digit for the coming years. That obviously also helps from a margin perspective where we even beat this quarter, the very high record quarter of last year. We post an operating margin of 16.2% with very good operational execution, good operating leverage, FX no-neutral, and M&A 10 basis points dilution.

With that, I give the word to Erik, who will go a bit more in detail on the financial numbers.

Erik Pieder
EVP and CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Thank you. Thank you, Nico. Good morning also from my side to everybody. As mentioned before, we had a very strong sales growth in the quarter where we were up 22%, with the 8% coming from organic growth, 5% coming from acquisitions, we also had help with the currency with 9%. A record for the first quarter in both profit and value, which was up to 30%, as well as with EBIT margin, which was 1 point better than the same period last year and ended at 16%. The income before taxes, as you can see, slightly lower, was on operating income is 30%, on income before tax it's 27%. This, of course, has to do with the higher interest rates that we are experiencing right now.

Another highlight, cash flow, very strong to be a first quarter. We are almost generated SEK 3 billion more, or we actually did even more than that in the first quarter. Another highlight, I would say, the return on capital employed, which is now on a 12-month rolling basis, up 1.7 points and ended at 17.4. If we dissect a bit the organic sales part, roughly half is price and half is volume. We have a very strong operating leverage of 33%. This is driven by the lower material cost, price realizations, but also efficiency measures. If we look in Q1, the Manufacturing Footprint Programs had savings of SEK 195 million. Talked before about the currency. We also have some help from the stronger dollar.

On the acquisition part, we have this year, we have booked SEK 114 million for HHI. Since this is a bridge, I would also like to remind that last year, we booked SEK 38 million in the same period. Probably doesn't come as a surprise on the direct material, we have a much better outcome this quarter than what we had the last quarter. Yes, we have some help from the mix of roughly 120 basis points, which comes from the very good performance from Global Technologies. In a comparable matter, Entrance Systems was a bit lower, but you can see that we have a tailwind of roughly 70 basis points.

This is something that we expect to continue for some quarters, but at the end of the year, we need to see how, let's say, how it, how the prices evolve. Conversion cost, also a positive measure. I talked before about the MFP. Then you can see on the SG&A that we have increased our investments in R&D, but also here there we actually suffer a bit from general inflation as well as salary inflation. That's why you see a negative number there. Talked a bit about the Manufacturing Footprint Program, the ninth program we're up to now. It follows a bit the same as what you've seen before with a number of factory closures, offices, et cetera, et cetera. The restructuring cost is slightly above SEK 1.2 billion, and it's the fastest payback that we've ever had.

It's roughly two years. The annual saving, when everything is materialized by 2025 is SEK 700 million. You see an answer for reference. If we look for 2023 on all the programs, we expect a saving of about the same size, the SEK 700 million. In total, roughly 1,300 employees will be affected by the program. Cash flow, I talked before, that this is actually the best quarter, Q1 quarter that we've ever had when you look to cash flow. You can see that of course, it's driven by very strong earnings, but as well we have been able to work on the working capital, which is actually better. We especially see in Entrance a very good performance when it comes to this.

The cash conversion was in the month 84%, which is an excellent number. This results in that we were actually able to pay back loans of more than SEK 2 billion. We have a net debt to equity, which is also down if you compare the quarters from 38 to 33. Net debt to EBITDA is now at 1.2, which means that the balance sheet is ready to take on board HHI as well as to continue with our normal acquisition strategy. Earnings per share, as you've seen before, is up with 29%, so another strong number. If we then go to the dividend, which the board will propose to the AGM today, is at SEK 4.8, which will be paid in two installments.

If you look on a 10-year cycle, see that the dividend payout is almost up with 200%. With that, I hand the words back to Nico.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Thanks, Erik. As a conclusion, very good start of the year with strong sales growth, organic sales up 8%, complemented with good growth through acquisitions of 5%, and strong execution with an operating profit of SEK 5.2 billion, 30% up, and a very strong EBIT margin for Q1 at 16%. Record cash flow for a first quarter. Overall, very good financial results. It's clear that we live in an uncertain economic climate. I think we also always are bombarded with negative news.

Yes, we have seen in the quarter some challenges on the residential side, especially on new build, but we still, like I mentioned earlier, see good business climate in the core of what we do on the commercial side. We are of course, through our decentralized organization, ready and agile to make sure that we can continue to grasp opportunities there where there is opportunities to continue the profitable growth. We are also agile enough to cut costs and adapt to a lower reality in those markets or in those segments where we would see a lower market condition.

We launched our MFP9, very nice program that will give us SEK 700 million savings once the project kick in with a very nice payback of slightly above two years. Last but not least, like Erik mentioned, we will propose to the AGM this afternoon a dividend payment of SEK 4.8 per share. With that, I give back the word to Björn for, I guess, Q&A.

Björn Tibell
Head of Investor Relations, ASSA ABLOY

Yeah. Thank you, Nico. Yes, this means that we are, excuse me, ready to start the Q&A session. I know that there are many people in the queue who are eager to ask questions, so please restrict yourself to one question and one follow-up. Operator, this means that we are ready to start the Q&A session. Please go ahead.

Operator

The first question is from Lars Brorson from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Lars Brorson
Head of European Capital Goods Equity Research, Barclays

Thank you. Good morning, Nico, Erik, Björn. One for Nico, one for Björn, if I can, please. Clearly lots of nervousness out there, as you say, Nico, around the commercial side of things. Specifications up double digits in the U.S. in the quarter. I take that to be an acceleration from low single in Q4, which I think was explained by a top common healthcare. Maybe you can help us a little bit with what you hear and see on the ground. Any evidence of some pausing delays, cancellations? Perhaps you can also remind us of your U.S., total U.S. exposure, the difference or the splits between commercial and institutional. If I can, maybe just secondly, Erik, to price cost, can I get some help, please, with price cost at the divisional level?

The 190 basis point at group, or 70 basis point X mix, I really had two questions. 1, what's the range of price cost across your divisions relative to that group number? Secondly, what sort of cadence should we expect divisionally through the year? I'm specifically interested in EMEIA. I wasn't enthused about the margin in EMEIA in Q1, but I also realize that the division is somewhat later in implementing price increases. Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Okay. I will, I will start to answer both questions. Erik can complement. On the commercial side, indeed, like we mentioned during the presentation, we have seen nice double-digit growth of our spec business, I would say in all three regions in U.S., in Europe, and in Australia and New Zealand. We still see very good momentum with our, I would say, only internal long-term indicator or KPI we have. We have also seen that the ABI index in the month was also again above 50. I said earlier, we should not take too much negative news out of an ABI that is three, four months negative. Say the same thing now.

We should not take too much positive no-news out of an ABI which is positive for 1 month. What is important is that the ABI over a longer period comes back in positive territory above 50%. Let's be confident that that is the case. I think there's a lot of discussions on, yeah, there is gonna be less liquidity and therefore is gonna be more difficult for the local government to lend money in the U.S. and so on. Yeah, that might be true. It's not something we see in our business today because you could say on the other hand, there's also all the investment packages of the Biden administration.

So far also our channel to market in the US is still positive on the commercial side. I would say that like I said in Q4, our biggest concern is perhaps not the market conditions on the commercial side. Our biggest concern is more the tough comparison with the same Q2 a year ago. Where on top of that, we will have 1 working day less this Q2, which by the way will be true also in Q3 and Q4. Whereas we had one working day more in Q1. When it comes to split between commercial and institutional, it's around 55% institutional, it's around 45% commercial. It's very similar in EMEIA versus Americas.

That was on... I think on the first question. When we come to price versus cost, we had 70 basis points accretion from price versus cost. We have continued to increase prices in Q1, and we will continue to do so also going forward because we see higher labor inflation. We still see energy costs going up, mainly in Europe, because often we had longer term energy contracts and then once they expire, then you get the increase. We have also seen material prices going up again in recent months. Especially steel has gone up again, which is important for us because we were a little bit afraid that steel was going down too much and that there would come a pressure on the price.

For steel, we are able to keep price, and for all the rest we continue to increase price. You should continue to see good accretion from price versus cost, at least in Q2 and Q3 . Q4 is too early because it depends on where material indexes go, where the market goes, and what we continue to do with the prices. As the mix per division, we have always said that Americas and Entrance Systems had a higher price component and the older divisions a lower price component. That has been the case also in Q1 . We don't want to exactly say the numbers for the different divisions, but obviously it had also to do with steel.

Entrance Systems and Americas had a higher steel component in their portfolio than the other divisions. Especially steel in the U.S. was very much up last year. At a given moment in time, it was 200% up if you take January 2021 as a comparison. It's also fair to say that EMEIA was a little bit later with price increases like you mentioned. Unfortunately that you then pull through the whole cycle and therefore also EMEIA gets today less accretion from price versus cost than for instance the Americas or Entrance Systems. That explains the lower volume leverage to a certain extent in EMEIA.

You also had of course lower, you know, volume growth in EMEIA versus Americas or Entrance Systems, which obviously also plays a role in the volume leverage.

Andre Kukhnin
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Very clear. Thank you, Nico.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Next question is from Andre Kukhnin from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Andre Kukhnin
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Can I just start with the EMEIA margin and dig a little bit deeper into that? It was a bit surprising to see that down 80 basis points year-on-year. Was there anything there in terms of kind of country mix that maybe contributed to that and might change as we go through the year? Or anything between maybe the product mix of resi and non-resi? Just wondering if that's kind of the underlying development that we should think about rolling out through the rest of the year or was there anything unusual going on in Q1 specifically?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

I think there's several reasons. One that you clearly see in the bridge is of course the currency. With the weaker SEK, I think we had in the quarter, if I remember right, 70 basis points dilution from currency, which is important. The second thing, like I mentioned, if you see the 3% top line growth, if you take price away, it's not so much volume. Of course you need a certain volume to get a good operating leverage. That's why the operating leverage in EMEIA is around 15% and where it's significantly higher, for instance in Americas. That's the second aspect. Third aspect, like I mentioned earlier, as we were later with price increases in EMEIA than in some other geographical divisions.

The tailwind we see now in Q1 is also lower than the tailwind we see in some other divisions. The fourth one is a positive and negative answer. Yes, if we have less residential and better commercial, it slightly helps from the margin. We also have seen a bigger drop in Scandinavia and in Sweden in particular, because in Sweden we have also an important OEM business for the residential side. Of course, they are more exposed to new build, and therefore they went down more. As you know, Scandinavia is our more profitable region in EMEIA. In a mix effect that affected negatively. I would say that's the main items for EMEIA.

Andre Kukhnin
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Great. Thank you. If I may follow up on the MFP program, just wondering that run rate of savings per quarter that you see from the new program, which is around SEK 175 per quarter, I guess, if we take SEK 700 for the year. How does that compare to the rate of savings that you've been achieving, say in Q1 this year, in Q4 last year? I.e., is there a step up in the rate of savings, or is it more of a continuation of generating that kind of level of quarterly accretion?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

I think I mean, first of all, of course, this is now the figure that I mentioned for the first quarter. That's for all the programs. I mentioned also the number for the full year of SEK 700. Of course, I mean, SEK 109. You're almost I would say, even I would say on the quarters this year. You can, yeah. You can be spread it out, I think, over the, over the quarters.

Andre Kukhnin
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Great. Thank you very much to both of you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Daniela Costa, from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Daniela Costa
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. Maybe two things for me. Sorry if I missed this, but in some calls in the past, you comment on how the quarter is starting. I was wondering if you have already, or if not, could comment on in terms of April. More longer term, I guess the court case for HHI is ongoing. If you can update us, like assuming, I think the resolution is in the middle of June, how quickly can you integrate? Has the sort of the pace at which you see the U.S. market change anything in terms of whether you think you can push faster for or maybe for more cost synergies? If you can comment a little bit on what should be the next steps, assuming that goes through, that would be great. Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

I guess your first question was on exit rates. I would say growth has been rather similar throughout the quarter. Of course, January, February, we have Chinese New Year. If you compensate a little bit for working days, you know, the growth rate has been rather flat and therefore exit rate on a similar level. When it comes to HHI, like I mentioned, the court case has started this Monday. It is expected to take around two weeks. I will myself also be a witness in the case next week. As a matter of fact, I will go to Washington on Friday. It will take some time for the judge to come to a conclusion.

We expect that to happen, somewhere towards the second half of this quarter, towards the end of this quarter. Once the judge comes with a decision, hopefully and confidently, a positive decision, we can push the button and we can execute. Depending a little on timing, it should be somewhere around the middle of this year that hopefully, confidently, we can finally close this acquisition. We don't know too much more about HHI than you can read in the news and in the reports. Yes. From time to time, we meet the people on an exhibition and so on. As we don't have more information than the public information.

That being said, we have of course prepared our action plan from our side. We know what we want to do. We know on where we can realize synergies. Also there we have quite detailed plans that are ready to push the button, I would say day one, when we become hopefully, confidently the proud owner of HHI.

Daniela Costa
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Wilson, from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Andrew Wilson
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got two. I might just maybe a follow-up to Andre's question on MFP. Could you just help in terms of the contribution, even a broad comment in terms of by the different segments? I mean, can we just assume that there's a saving sort of evenly spread as a percentage of sales, or is there a better way to think about it?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

I think if you look in the program, it's more if you look more on the divisions, I would say that it's more heavy on EMEIA, as well as on Global Technologies. That's when you look in the program, you will see higher savings on those two divisions.

Andrew Wilson
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Okay, perfect. Maybe a second question just on Entrance Systems. It, it seems, I guess from the commentary and then it was commented with regards to sort of pedestrian and industrial kind of taking over the growth profile. I think to my understanding, there's a slightly sort of two bigger verticals within Entrance Systems. You know, even with some resi and some perimeters slowing, do we still think we can grow this business in terms of what you see for 2023?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

It's of course difficult to predict the future. Yes, it's true that industrial segment is our biggest segment. Our pedestrian segment and our residential segment are similar in size. Parameter security segment is a much smaller segment. Obviously the challenge with parameter security and residential, which are both mainly and for perimeter even exclusively North American businesses is a very difficult comparison. They have been growing quarter double digit growth on the quarter last year and a double digit growth the year before. If that comes with slowdown on the residential side, you see the results that we showed.

Pedestrian and industrial are more also global businesses, they haven't seen that very high growth last year. For them also the comparison is a little bit easier. As we continue to realize that price component, we are confident that we continue to see a good continued growth for Entrance Systems. Again, I can only look so far in the future. I cannot predict the future.

Erik Pieder
EVP and CFO, ASSA ABLOY

One thing perhaps to add on Entrance Systems, which was encouraging, was the service growth or the aftermarket growth, which was strong and that's predominantly or actually, only, I would say in industrial as well as in the pedestrian segment, which is also something that's good when you look on growth going forward.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Correct.

Andrew Wilson
Executive Director, JPMorgan

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Vivek Midha from Citi. Please go ahead.

Vivek Midha
Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Thanks very much everyone, good morning. Just one question please. Following up on the Global Technologies business. Could you give us an indication of how much of the backlog is left in physical access control for fulfillment in Q2 and beyond? Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Yeah. We had a good recovery of the backlog now again in Q1, after also Q4 and Q3. There's still some backlog left that we should now invoice if everything goes according to plan in Q2. You know, we should be back at, you know, normal backlog levels and then that positive, you know, extra effect would be gone in the second half of the year.

Vivek Midha
Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Mattias Holmberg from DNB. Please go ahead.

Mattias Holmberg
Equity Research Analyst, DNB

Thank you. The comment you made in the report that some key leading indicators are pointing towards a slowdown, can you elaborate a bit on where you're seeing this weakness, beyond the comments you already made on the slowdown in resi construction? Perhaps if I phrase the question a bit differently, based on what you're seeing in the leading indicators, where do you expect to sort of eventually see a slowdown in your own business going forward, taking lead times into consideration, please?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Yeah. Mattias, should not be a surprise to you and I can only repeat what I said before. We have seen an important decline on new build residential. Again, we are not so exposed to new build residential as a group. But there is of course pockets like OEM window hardware, like garage door business in the U.S. or some of our fencing business in the U.S. that is more affected by the decline in residential new build. We have seen a deceleration still in a positive growth, but less positive growth on the R&R side on residential, also KPIs that are publicly available.

Perhaps the only thing what we didn't talk about yet is that we definitely also have seen a bit of weaker direct to consumer business. If you take the Bunnings, you know, the Hawaii in Australia or if you take that channel also in Europe, for instance, in the country where we are in Sweden. To a certain extent, even in the U.S., you definitely see a little bit more cautious consumer behavior on that direct to consumer part of our business. Again, like I mentioned on the commercial side, we still see our internal indicator spec business up double digit in all three main geographical areas or regions.

Mattias Holmberg
Equity Research Analyst, DNB

Thanks for that color. A quick follow-up on the MFP. If possible at all, could you split out how much of the contribution in the quarter was relating to the most recent program, and how much was relating to the older ones, please?

Erik Pieder
EVP and CFO, ASSA ABLOY

I would say that, I mean, I think that everything from the MFP 7 is now gone. If you then look on the split between the MFP8 and the MFP9, there is a higher portion coming from the MFP9.

Mattias Holmberg
Equity Research Analyst, DNB

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Alasdair Leslie from Société Générale . Please go ahead.

Alasdair Leslie
Director of Equity Research, Société Général

Thank you and good morning. First question, just quite a few industrial companies reporting so far have kind of indicated a softening in U.S. momentum. One or two kind of highlighting now destocking in commercial construction. I just wanted to confirm that's not something you've seen at all in your kind of March and April trends. That's kind of the first question. Secondly, just to follow up on Global Tech. I wonder if you could quantify that sort of positive product mix impact on the margins there.

I appreciate there was maybe a benefit from the PAX backlog conversion. Do you see that kind of mix benefit overall as reflecting a, I guess, a kind of mean reversion in terms of the recovery in the different areas of the portfolio, so it's kind of more sustainable? Obviously, there's gonna be a lot of movements in the different areas in the portfolio in terms of growth. Just to get a feeling around the sort of sustainability margins. Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

On your first question, no, that is not something we see as something substantial, and definitely not something that affected our result in Q1, also not towards the end of Q1. When it comes to Global Technologies, perhaps we can dissect a little bit.

You can say that 75% of Global Technologies is HID, 25% of Global Technologies is Global Solutions. In the HID part, around 50% is PACS, and it's also the most profitable part of our Global Technology business. If you can grow more PACS, you know, also in the bigger picture of Global Technology, it's important in the mix, it's important for the margin. If you take the Global Solutions part, there again, of that 30% business, half of it or close to half of it is the hospitality business, which is also the more profitable part of our business in Global Solutions.

With hospitality, we had a bit a challenge that our top line was, you could say, subcritical in the sense that there is a certain level that you need for hospitality business. If you are above that level, you can realize very good volume leverage and post good bottom line figures. If you are below that, it's more challenging. As we have grown hospitality business nicely over the last two or three quarters, we are again above that critical number, and therefore, hospitality contributes in a very good way also to the profitability. That's on the positive side. Like I said, then Citizen Identity, which is also, you know, travel related.

There we see our top line still significantly lower than prior to COVID-19, where that is not the case anymore with PACS and with hospitality, we are more or less back on that level. Citizen Identity is not the case, so we are still on a low level, and therefore we also have challenges, you know, bottom line, where we, you know, make still an important loss on that part of the business in HID.

Alasdair Leslie
Director of Equity Research, Société Général

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from James Moore from Redburn. Please go ahead.

James Moore
Partner, Redburn

Yeah. Good morning, everyone. Nico, Erik, I wondered if I could come back to the Americas split and the revenue exposure. I think you're 75 non-res, 25 res. Did I hear you correctly that the non-residential is 45 commercial, 55 institutional? Could you say what the new build versus renovation split is for each of the three buckets of resi, commercial and institutional?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

If you take Americas, you could say 80% is North America, 20% is South America. South America is obviously much more residential than commercial. The vast majority in South America is residential. If you take U.S., Canada, you could say that 85% is commercial. Residential is very small. As you know, we are a small player on the residential side in the U.S. That's also the reason why we want to acquire HHI. It's correct that on the commercial side in the U.S., 55% is institutional and 45% is the rest of commercial.

I think the honest answer is that we don't know exactly how much our exposure is to new build. What we know for the Americas is that in all three, it's very low. The very vast majority of what we do on the commercial side, institutional, non-institutional and on the residential side is R&R, is not new build.

James Moore
Partner, Redburn

That's very helpful. Thanks. Within commercial, I wondered if you could help us understand what the breakdown is within that. Just because you look at certain areas like office, which is clearly very elevated, vacancy rates are high. Tech was hiring, it's now firing. That's probably where we've got, if there are any kind of capital flight issues in regional banks, a bigger risk. I don't know if there's any way you could break down some of the categories between multi-retail, office, casino, whatever, as to how that business breaks up these days.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Yeah. We have different verticals like K-12 universities, government and so on, and we even have dedicated sales teams for the different verticals. What we can say is that there is no vertical that is more than double digits of our total sales. They're all verticals are single digit sales. If you are specifically after offices where, you know, all the questions come, I can say that it's not among the top verticals for us. Top verticals for us are more on universities and K-12, and then on everything that is how do you call it? As

Erik Pieder
EVP and CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Healthcare.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

...healthcare, related.

James Moore
Partner, Redburn

That's very helpful. My last one, if I could, is just your ambition on pricing. I mean, is your ambition to cover inflation? Are you thinking about covering material, or do you also want to include general and wage inflation in that? Or do you simply want to get the maximum? I'm thinking, given that we went up on steel costs and then we went back down, as we go back down, would you like to try and hold on to price or even rise it, raise prices in the face of tailwinds on materials?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

I would say our ambition is none of all what you mentioned. Our ambition is to continue to price, to increase prices as long as we can increase prices and as long as the market follows. Of course, obviously price increase is the easiest and the fastest way to the bottom line. That's why we have continued to increase prices also in Q1 in, you know, all the regions and for most of our products. Let's not forget that. Let's take steel separate for a second, but all the rest has continued to increase. I think if you take copper, nickel, aluminum, where we are today, it's again up 20%-25% compared to where we were at the end of last year.

Material is up and gives us an argument to further increase prices. Next, to labor inflation, where labor inflation definitely is higher this year than last year, and last year it was higher than the year before. Like I mentioned, we have also energy cost and general inflation. When we talk about steel was significantly up and then indeed, somewhere last quarter, last year, steel started to drop 40%, 50% in the U.S. At the moment, we were a little bit afraid that, you know, at a certain moment somebody would start to reduce prices. We were able to keep prices on a high level. If you now see the last couple of months, steel is again significantly up in the U.S.

It's easier to keep prices today. If material continues to evolve in the way it evolves over the last couple of months, we are confident that also going forward, we should be able again to further increase steel prices. As a short answer, yes, we continue to increase prices as long as we can, as long as the market follows.

Alexander Virgo
Capital Goods Research, Bank of America

Thanks, Nico. Very helpful.

Operator

The next question is from Alexander Virgo from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Alexander Virgo
Capital Goods Research, Bank of America

Thanks very much. Morning, Nico. Erik, I wondered if you could just talk a little bit about the dynamics in your specification business in Americas. Can you talk a little bit about the trends in terms of size of projects or speed of projects or any kind of changes in customer behavior? That would be the first question. Then the second question would just simply be a question around quantification or maybe not necessarily quantification, but just understanding the sort of sequential developments in terms of the slowdowns in new builds that you've called out in Europe, the U.S., and specifically, I guess, in Northern Europe. Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

On specification, we follow up per vertical and when I say we see double-digit growth in Americas, it's almost for all verticals that we see strong double-digit growth. From the bigger verticals, I think there's perhaps two exceptions. One is everything that is hotel related, hospitality related. The other one, like we discussed before, offices, where we see lower still positive growth, but lower single digit positive growth compared to the other verticals.

On the slowdown on residential, I mean, we already talked about the slowdown also in Q4, so it's nothing new, and it's not something that became much more of a problem than it was already in Q4 if we talk for the Americas. Definitely in Europe, in some markets, especially everything that is OEM related, we have seen more negative trend in Q1 than in Q4. Particular, if we take, for instance, Scandinavia, Sweden, the country where we are, where we have seen a more important drop of our OEM business in Q1, where that was not so outspoken in Q4 yet.

In general, it's more a confirmation of what we had seen in Q4.

Alexander Virgo
Capital Goods Research, Bank of America

Right. Okay. Just as a follow-up, the R&R comments that you made were obviously far more important for your business. How would you describe that in terms of the progress through the last sort of three to six months? What sort of comps are we facing as we go into the second half? Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Yeah. Again, in the U.S., our exposure to residential is very small, less than 15%, and most of that 15% is R&R. I can only say that we still had, despite a deceleration of R&R, nice higher single-digit growth on our mechanical residential business in the US. In Europe, of course, we are more exposed. Like I mentioned, 40%-45% is residential, where also the majority is R&R. There also, if you take new build to OEMs out, it's not that you see a different pattern over the months in the quarter. It's not that things fall off the cliff in March, and we're still good in February.

It was more, to a certain extent, even, you know, a credible or a stable, lower level.

Alexander Virgo
Capital Goods Research, Bank of America

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Aurelio Calderon, from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Aurelio Calderon
VP of Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is from that comment you've made around some shortages in electromechanical affecting the U.S. business. I wonder if you could comment a little bit on market share dynamics, because I remember the last time we had sort of supply chain issues or kind of shortages, you were taking share from some of those peers. Question would be, have you seen any change in dynamics in market share or are you seeing any flow back to some of those competitors?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Specifically, yes, on the semiconductor comment I made for one of our electromechanical verticals. Yes, it was a reason why they had a negative growth in that specific product range in Americas. Again, if you look in the bigger picture, the Americas EMEIA business was growing high double digits in Q1. I think if you take from all geographical divisions, we even had the highest growth in EMEIA in Americas. It's not a drama, it's just, you know, explaining why that specific family was lower in the quarter. Like I mentioned, the main reason was the difficult comparison with a year ago. When it comes to competitor dynamics, we don't see a change.

We have, our, you know, bigger colleagues in the market that are doing good work as well, and they are, yeah, a good strong competitor for us. We have many other smaller players that, yeah, also continue to do, I guess a good job. It's also not that competitive dynamic change in one or two quarters. So far we have also seen that also the other people in the market in U.S. have further increased prices also because they have the same challenges when it comes to inflation like we have.

Aurelio Calderon
VP of Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

That's great. Thank you. My second question is around the margins that you've seen in Entrance Systems. I think we've been talking about being sort in a blue sky scenario for quite some time, and the 16% margin being very solid. I wonder if with this growth shift towards more services and so on, is 16% the margin that we should target for? Is that margin target not shifting to 17%, 18%? Why should we stay with 16%?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

You know, why not 19% or 20%, right? We always want more. I think we have said that for Entrance Systems midterm, our ambition was to bring them close to 16%. It's fair to say that we are now faster than anticipated at that 16%. We can only compliment the whole Entrance Systems team for that very good achievement. I think we have enough as a first ambition to stay on the levels where we are today. You will also remember from previous calls that we have always said also that perimeter security is the higher margin segment in Entrance Systems.

They were having also the highest growth over the last six quarters or so. They in the mix, they were also helping in a very important way. We see now, you know, even negative growth in parameter security. The mix also changes that we then, you know, have to compensate with good work in the other segments and by also trying to continue to grow our service business faster than our equipment business. 'Cause if that happens, you also get a positive effect because we make better margins on service than on equipment. The ambition is to, you know, to stay for the time being close to that 16%. We should not dream of.

Aurelio Calderon
VP of Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

That's great.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

... 17% or 18% or whatever, you mentioned.

Aurelio Calderon
VP of Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Very clear. Thank you.

Björn Tibell
Head of Investor Relations, ASSA ABLOY

I think we have time for one more question, operator.

Operator

The next question is from Nick Green from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Nick Green
Senior Research Analyst and Head of EU Capital Goods and Industrial Tech, Bernstein

Oh, good morning, Nico, Erik Pieder, Björn. A quick question on HID Global, please. Can you remind us again how the mobile access credentials in that business translate into the recurring revenues for you and how you'll plan to grow that? I recall at the Capital Markets Day, you talked about the switch from the plastic cards to mobile credentials being both revenue and margin accretive. Can you just remind us of the economics of that business, please? Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

If you take perhaps First, a general answer, if you take our recurring revenue, I think, when I started back in 2018, our recurring revenue software as a service mainly, would have been around 2% of top line. Today, it's around 5% of top line. It's definitely our fastest growing segment or family within the group. Clearly, Global Technologies and HID and mobile credentials in particular are playing an important role in that growth.

As, you know, Apple continues to make publicity for their Apple Wallet and are rolling out more applications and, you know, the other technology giants are doing similar things, the market dynamics help us to further make success on the mobile credential side. I think it's going in the right direction. We are investing a lot on R&D side also to capture that software as a service opportunity once mobile credential becomes more mainstream. Then I would say that the dynamics that Björn explained at the Capital Markets Day, Björn Lidefelt, the Head of HID, remain valid today and we are delivering on those ambitions.

Nick Green
Senior Research Analyst and Head of EU Capital Goods and Industrial Tech, Bernstein

Thank you for that. Are you able to give us, just remind us of those economics that Björn explained at the Capital Markets Day? The fact that a plastic card, you get paid a bit more per plastic card, but you expect more individual mobile credential transactions to occur so that the economics should be margin and revenue accreted. It'd just be good to reconfirm some of those data points if you could.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

I think as a general principle, I think we can reconfirm of what Björn says, then let's see how it plays out once, you know, it becomes more mainstream. But for the time being, definitely we can confirm what Björn has said at the Capital Markets Day.

Björn Tibell
Head of Investor Relations, ASSA ABLOY

Thank you, Nick.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Okay. Thank you.

Björn Tibell
Head of Investor Relations, ASSA ABLOY

We will unfortunately now have to round up this conference. I know that there are a few questions left. Please feel welcome to contact us at Investor Relations if you want to follow those questions up. For now, I'd like to thank you for your interest and participation today. We look forward to seeing and meeting many of you in the coming weeks. Thanks for today.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, ASSA ABLOY

Thank you.

Erik Pieder
EVP and CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Thank you.

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