Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 5, 2021

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the presentation of Assa Abloy's Year End Report 2020. My name is Bjorn Tibelle. I'm heading Investor Relations. And joining me from their home offices are Assa Abloy's CEO, Nico Del Voor and our CFO, Erik Peter. We have set aside about 1 hour for this conference. And we will now start with a summary of the Q4 report before we open up for your questions. So with that, I would like to hand over to you, Nico. Thank you, Bjorn, and also good morning from my side. And yes, unfortunately, we have to do this Call again from our office, which, yes, as we all know, shows again that COVID-nineteen is not over yet. But we can present you a good Q4 definitely if we take COVID-nineteen into account I got with strong operational execution, the part in which organic sales declined with 5 percent, but we compensated that organic sales decline by a strong growth through acquisitions of +5%. If we look on the organic sales side, a flat sales in EMEA and in Entrance Systems, but then declining organic sales in the ODDG divisions. And then a solid EBIT margin in the quarter of 16.1% if we exclude acquisitions And divestments, we have, of course, Agta Rekhoft that came in and that diluted in the quarter with 40 basis points, But we also had the divestment of Gardesa, a residential door business in Italy, where we took goodwill cost and other related cost in the quarter of SEK 185 SEK1 1,000,000 and that divestment diluted the EBIT result with 80 basis points. It's very good. Continued cost reductions with a net cost reduction in the quarter of around SEK 500,000,000. We launched a new MFP program, MFP8, and we are already executing on the first projects and start to see the first Results there. And then, definitely, another quarter where the cash flow was the highlight, very strong record. Cash flow In the quarter, 6% up versus last year, also record cash flow for the full year. We now look into the figures. Sales of SEK 23.3 billion, 7% down, Like I mentioned, 5% drop organic but compensated by 5% growth to acquisitions net and then an important negative effect of Currency on the top line of 7% and EBIT margin of 14.9 But if we exclude Gardeza and Acquisitions, like I mentioned, 16.1 versus 16.2% a year ago. And earnings per share of SEK 2.33, 7% down compared to the same quarter a year ago. If we then also look at the full year 2020, Sales of almost SEK88 1,000,000, 7% down compared to 2019 With an 8% negative organic growth and that came, of course, mainly from Q2 where we had an organic decline of 18%, But good growth through acquisitions for the full year, plus 4% net and then a negative currency effect of 3% and an EBIT margin of 13.6% versus 15.9% in 2019. If we then go back to Q4 and look a little bit into the different regions. Of course, we start with North America, an organic growth of minus 5% on the same level as in Q3. But if we then zoom in a little bit on the Americas division, we have seen a very strong residential with high double digit growth from For traditional residential and also for smart residential, where we have seen a continued more difficult commercial Saad, with higher single digits decline, although I must say that In this quarter, and that's different from Q3, we have seen over the quarter A slight gradual sequential improvement of our commercial business in the sense that Was better at the end of the quarter than at the beginning of the quarter, and that trend has now also continued in the 1st month of this year. So we are a bit more Optimistic on the commercial side than we were perhaps 3 months ago. Then South America, minus 2%. But if you look only in the Americas division, It was a high very high single digit number with very strong Brazil, very strong Chile, but a very good overall performance. The reason why I chose here minus 2% is that we had difficult comparison with some project orders for Global Technologies in 2019. Then in Europe, minus 3, where you could say that the countries that were Hit the hardest in Q2 by the very stringent lockdowns also recovered the most. And we're also here In contradiction with Q3, now in Q4, we saw a small gradual sequential Improvement over the quarter and then also further confirmed now in January. Also in Europe, a stronger residential than commercial. And as we have a more mixed, more balanced exposure to residential commercial in Europe versus the U. S, of course, you profited more from that stronger momentum on the residential side. Africa, Middle East minus 11, but mainly in the Middle East, we see that construction companies, projects construction projects have Difficulties to get executed. If you take, for instance, a country like Saudi Arabia that has locked their borders or closed their borders, It's difficult for people from India, people from Pakistan, so to get into the country. And it's mainly those immigrant workers that do The construction projects in that part of the world. So delays there, also some challenges with Financing of the project, so minus 11%. Australia, New Zealand plus 1%, I think a very good performance definitely if we take into account that Australia, part of Australia was again in lockdown in Q4. But also here, you see a stronger residential Then commercial, and that's a little bit a general trend, I would say, with perhaps the exception of China. And that brings us to Asia where we have a minus 15, where mainly India and Southeast Asia remain very depressed. India and Southeast Asia are definitely the 2 countries, regions that were hit the most and are still hit the most by COVID-nineteen. You see Southeast Asia, many of the borders are still closed. It's a region that lives also off tourism. So still very difficult business climate. The same is true for India. Whereas we have seen a gradual improvement in South Korea and are also a bit more optimistic now For South Korea going forward, where in China, we still had a mid single digit decline, But well, then in China, definitely on the strategy side, we are moving from this stability, profitability and are confident that soon we will now Get back also into the growth mode. If we then go to some market highlights for the quarter, Also this quarter, several bigger project wins. I will just mention one, an important door hardware project for an airport in China. Also good to see here that also in this on this side, our new strategy for China starts to pay off. So very happy with that. Several new product launches in the quarter, automatic sliding door range with digital OLED Signage Incorporated in the door, that's a cooperation with Samsung, very nice high end sliding doors. And then, of course, I would say, long awaited new year doorman for Scandinavia and great success Well, our pre launch at the end of last year, we were completely sold out, very good traction. And then of course, it's good to see that also in this cohort, again, we get rewarded for all the innovation and R and D efforts we put in the organization. And it's good to see that work is recognized by experts in our industry. Sales growth, yes, 4 quarters now with Negative organic growth, but like I mentioned, very well compensated by growth through acquisitions in this quarter offsetting each other. And then operating margin on a 12 month run rate of 13.5%. But in the quarter, if we Adjust for acquisitions and mainly adjust for the divestment of Gardeza, we were at 16.1% in the quarter, so well Within the bandwidth we aim for again. Lower top line, lower margin, therefore, of course, also lower operating profit, 14% lower than the same quarter a year ago. On the acquisition side, Still a good full active pipeline before acquisitions completed in the quarter, 12 acquisitions for the full year. Those acquisitions represent together an annualized sales of SEK 5,600,000,000. And of course, we had Several divestments we already mentioned. We have also got Aviso together, they represent an otherwise sales of SEK1.6 billion. If we can go into the different divisions a little bit more in detail, starting with EMEA. I believe a very strong performance From EMEA in the quarter, we have an organic sales of minus 1%, with strong sales growth in the U. K. And France and stable sales in Germany and in Scandinavia. An operating margin of 12.8 percent. Of course, that 12.8% includes the SEK185 1,000,000 capital loss and exit costs for the divestment of Kabeza. If you correct for that, EMEA would have been at 15.9% Versus 16% last year. We have a very good volume leverage with continued savings and continued efficiency improvements In the division, we're lowering the cost base, 10 basis points dilution from FX. Americas, I mean, also very strong performance in this division, an organic sales decline of 4% We have very strong high double digit sales growth for smart residential and traditional residential And then high single digit growth in Latin America and still a more challenging situation With higher single digit negative growth on the commercial side in the U. S. Operating margin of 20% on the same level as last year. We have very strong volume leverage of 90 basis points. Also here, very good cost control in the division, very good savings, I would say despite the negative mix because we know Net margin on the commercial side are higher than on the residential side and margins in the U. S. Are higher than in South America. 20 basis points dilution from FX and 70 basis points dilution from M and A, that's mainly an internal Only an internal thing, that's the move of perimeter security from Americas division to Entrance Systems. And then our 3rd geographical division, Opening Solutions, Asia Pacific, we have an organic sales decline of 5 percent with sales declining in all markets and with a high double digit decline in India and in Southeastern Asia. Operating margin of 8.2% on the same level as last year, also year good Volume leverage of 40 basis points, but our strategy for China continues to see results. Also in this quarter, Our margins in China were more than double what they were the same quarter a year ago. That's now 3 or 4 quarters that we see that phenomenon. So really in China, we moved from that stability to profitability. Obviously, now the next step is to move also back into Positive organic growth. And that's also one of the reasons why we have decided now to Change the divisional setup for APAC. You might have seen that we have split the division in 2 Subdivisions, 2 segments. 1 segment with Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Korea, you could say the more mature markets of APAC and then another segment with China Greater China And Southeast Asia, the more emerging part of the division. I will be heading the overall division, but then we have put 2 New management teams in place that will run the 2 separate sub segments, 2 internal leaders. I think the right next step after we came to the stability profitability phase. Now we need more Fine tuning and more dedicated strategy on one side for the emerging markets, on the other side for the more mature markets. If we then go to Global Technologies, the division that is definitely still hit the most and the hardest by COVID-nineteen, An organic sales decline of mine is 17% for all business areas in HID And a very strong sales decline also for Global Solutions. I don't have to tell you what's happening with the hotel business or the cruise ships. And of course, as people still are not going back to the office, they don't consume too many cars or credentials. So that also has a negative effect on our packs business in HID. As people don't travel, they don't have to renew their passports or they don't lose their passports, What's having a negative effect on our citizen ID business in HID? And I would say it has a double negative effect. It has negative effect on top line, But it has also an important negative effect on our bottom line because obviously that aftermarket part of the business in Global Technologies is the most Profitable part that we have and that surface by far the most. Operating margin of 16.4% Versus 18.3% last year. So I think despite the very big drop on the top line, very good Management of the division to cut costs and adapt the suit to the new reality, a negative volume leverage of 90 basis points and important negative effect of FX of 70 basis points, that's mainly U. S. SEK related and then also M and A diluted with Turkey based points. And here perhaps we are less optimistic than on the geographical divisions. It's clear that The negative effect of COVID-nineteen will continue to go on in this division. We really need people to come back to the office in the 1st place. And hopefully, confidently, that is going to happen sooner. And then, of course, we need also people start to travel again to see the same positive effect on the hospitality and business in Global Solutions. Anthem Systems and organic sales of minus 1%, also very strong performance in this division with Positive sales in all segments except for Pedestrian, where the lockdowns had a negative effect on the sales. More positive mix towards equipment versus service. On the service side, we Have some challenges with the higher sick leave of our technicians either because some of our technicians Half COVID-nineteen, but mainly because they have to go in quarantine because they have been in contact with people that tested positive on COVID-nineteen. The good news there is, I guess, is that most of that business is, of course, not done. It's just a delay, just a backlog. And we will be able to execute on that service once the technicians come back up to full capacity. Operating margin of 15.8% versus 16.3% last year, stable volume leverage, 10 basis points Dilution helped a little bit by currency 20 basis points and then M and A mainly Active record on the dilutive side, 60 basis points, but good performance from the AM Group, which is also part of The acquisition, Colamin and Transistors. So overall, very good performance also in this division. And with that, I give the word to Erik for some more details on the financial numbers. Thank you, Nico. And also from my side, a very good morning. The sales decreased with 7%, which you can see is equal to the FX difference that we have. So I mean the negative organic Sales of 5% is offset by the M and A activities that we have had. The operating income decreased in the quarter by 14%, but If you compare that to the 20% that we have for the full year, it shows that our cost efficiency actions that we have in That they are actually generating improvement. The operating margin, as you have seen before, was at 14.9%. But if you exclude Acquisitions and divestments and then in particular then Gadesa and Agta Record, our operating margin was just above the 16%. We had a record cash flow, which increased with 6% versus last year, and we also had a record high cash flow for the full year, which ended then on SEK14.6 billion. This is driven by good execution on our working capital as well as lower CapEx and lower interest expenses. Finally, on this slide, you can see that the return on capital employed is down with 2% and ended at 15%, which is related to the lower earnings as well as higher capital employed. Nico mentioned before The cost efficiency actions that we do and we continue to implement that across the group in Q4, There was a headcount reduction in the quarter of 650 permanent reductions. And during 2020, we have reduced The workforce permanently with about 5%. We have also good cost reduction tractions in other types, Such as the travel cost was down with 65%, but we can also see it in in premises as well as other kind of other types. The net effect on the quarter was around SEK 500,000,000. We have also launched The 8 manufacturing footprint program now in Q4, the restructuring cost is close to SEK 1,400,000,000 SEK with an annual saving of about SEK 1,000,000,000. This is slightly more than what we indicated in the Q3 report. The payback period For the 8 program is about 2 years, and we expect in 2021 that all manufacturing programs will generate a saving of about SEK 750,000,000. If we then go over to the bridge, you can see that we have a 6% lower volume, but we continue to have a benefit from the price. The operating leverage continues to improve and now it was The flow through was 14%, which is compared to the 26% that we had in the Q3 shows that The operational efficiencies that we have implemented across the group yields result. And I think specifically, as was mentioned before by Nico, we had a good Leverage in Americas as well as in APAC, where they actually can absorb their sales decline by lower cost. On the top line, as previously noted, the currency is down with 7%, but it has a very marginal effect, I would say, on the bottom line. The M and A, 5% plus on the top line and it has a dilutive effect of 120 basis points. The divestment of Gadesa explains about 80 basis points and then the remaining part is mostly driven by Agta Record. This is in line with the bandwidth that we have said before that we know and this has 40 basis points. And just wanted to make a comment there that Agta Record is seasonally stronger in Q4 and that Q1 is the weakest quarter. If we then continue with the cost breakdown, the direct material decreased during the quarter with 40 basis points. We have a strong tailwind in APAC, and we also see improvements in EMEA as well as Entrance System. On Americas and Global Technologies, it is more or less online than what we had in last year. What we have seen we see now, of course, that the raw material starts to increase, and it normally takes 1 to 2 quarters before it impacts our cost base. And of course, we are on high alert to offset this higher raw material cost with actions that we have. The conversion cost was up with 10 basis points. And if the sales goes down, Then you know that then the absolute cost continues to decrease and that we saw. So the gross margin increased with 30 basis points before acquisitions. On the SG and A, we continue to invest in R and D, but we see good savings in the sales and admin. And we can also see here sequential improvement from Q3, which is driven then by our cost measures. If we then go over to the cash flow. The cash flow was SEK 5,500,000,000 in the quarter, which is A record, and it's close to SEK 300,000,000 higher than last year. It's driven by, as I said before, the strong execution that we have on our working capital, which was actually down with SEK1.8 billion, but we also have lower interest expenses as well as lower CapEx. The cash conversion rate was very strong at 131% compared to the EBT. Comment there as well on our cash position. It came down a bit in Q4, but it's still high at SEK 2.8 SEK 1,000,000,000. And looking ahead, we gradually try we will gradually normalize this one going further and should Come back to previous levels that we have had before. On the gearing, the gearing level is down with 5% and ended at 51%. The net debt continued to decrease and is down with SEK 3 point SEK3 billion versus last year. It's, of course, contributed partially then to the strengthening of the Swedish krona, But we also had a strong operating cash flow, as we have alluded to before. The net debt versus EBITDA is at SEK 1,900,000, which is at the similar level as what there was to last year. And this means that and I will continue to repeat that we still have Strong enough balance sheet to continue our acquisition strategy. On the last Slide for me is then the earnings per share, which decreased with 7% in Q4 to SEK2.33 SEK per share. I would also like to notice that the Board is proposing an increased dividend to SEK3.90 per share, which will be split in 2 equal payments this year. And with that said, I hand it back to you, Nico, for some final conclusions. Thanks, Erik. So yes, indeed, we can say a good quarter if we take COVID-nineteen pandemic into consideration. We have a strong operational execution in the quarter, an organic sales decline of 5% compensated by a good growth through acquisitions net 5%. And operating margin of 16.1% if we exclude acquisitions and divestments And then a record cash flow up 6% versus last year, record cash flow also for the full year. But it's clear that COVID-nineteen continues to have a negative effect on our business. We continue to see also new Lockdowns, new restrictions also in main important markets in Europe. So far Those restrictions are, of course, more of a social nature. So they definitely don't have the same very big negative Back that they had back in March April last year when counters really shut down completely. You see that governments really try to continue to keep the business going. So yes, it has negative effect, but it has much lower negative effect than Back at the first wave of COVID-nineteen. Nevertheless, therefore, we continue our strong focus on cost and cash flow remains a priority while we also continue to invest in growth initiatives to bounce forward and to reaccelerate our organic growth again. We are convinced that our strong long term growth drivers that they remain valid and therefore also our financial targets And like Erik said, the Board has then proposed a dividend of SEK3.9 in 2 equal installments, 1 in May and 1 in November. And then we also want to remind you that we will have unfortunately also a virtual Capital Markets Day on May 26. And with that, I hand over back to Bjorn for the Q and A. Thank you, Nico. And before I hand over to the operator, could I please remind you as usual to limit yourself to one question each and one follow-up to allow as many as possible to ask questions. Operator, this means that we are ready to kick off the Q and A session. Please go ahead. Thank Our Our first question comes from the line of Alexander Virgo at Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Thanks very much. Good morning to you all. Trust everybody is safe and well. I wondered, Nico, can you talk a little bit about that Sequential development of demand through the quarters and maybe break that down a little bit for us between divisions. I think The conclusion at least I've taken initially is that both EMEA and the Americas saw strengthening through the quarter. I'm just wondering if you could give us an indication of what run rates that would Imply in January, given your comments that things have continued on trend. And then maybe just dig a little bit into The same sort of dynamics around Global Tech and Entrance Systems. Yes. Perhaps I will try to comment on the different Divisions, perhaps if I start with the more difficult one, Global Technologies as well HID as Global Solutions, We definitely haven't seen a sequential improvement in the quarter. It has stayed difficult Throughout the quarter and also at the start of this year. In a sense also if you see, nothing really has Changed today compared to 3, 4 months ago. And if you take HID, they are on one side dependent on People going back to the office. When people go back to the office, they will use their cars, they will lose their cars, they will use the credentials, There were new credentials. Things will start to break down. That is not the case yet. We are confident as the vaccine is being rolled out, as confidence comes back because I think this and I want to remind this is in the first place a trust When trust comes back, that part of the business will come back and I'm confident that, that will Come back faster. Now we have, of course, in HCD the whole business related To traveling, the whole passport business, if people don't take the plane, then they don't need a new passport to renew or they don't lose the passport and so on. So that also suffers. And I think that will continue to suffer again until the vaccine is rolled out at bigger scale. I guess I hope I'm confident towards the summer because then people will start to travel again at least private, That's most probably on the business side. Travel regime will stay lower for quite some time also after the pandemic And most probably will not come back soon to the, let's say, 2019 levels, which means that The business on the hospitality side, in the first place, the hotel business, which is the biggest part for Global Solutions, That will remain more difficult for a longer period of time. So that on Global Technologies, definitely no improvement remains challenging. We take Entrance Systems. Like I mentioned, we have seen Good momentum in 3 of the 4 segments. We have also a slight sequential improvement even. It has been more challenging on the pedestrian side because again, pedestrian is more linked directly to Some of the new lockdowns that we and the new restrictions that we have seen, many, many in Europe. If we then go to the 3 geographical divisions and we start with Americas, I I think South America has been running for us on a very high level. Of course, we were helped in 2020 also by the currency. Currency devaluation in many of the markets in South America meant that we could Increased prices to a higher extent and that helped, of course, to boost the top line. But there was mainly in the beginning of the year. We see now that momentum continues. We don't see, of course, a further acceleration because I think a high Single digit growth in South America is already a big achievement and is definitely better than the market. But we don't see a slowdown of our activities in South America neither. We have continued to see High like I mentioned, high double digit growth on the residential side in North America. We haven't seen a sequential improvement there because it was on and it stayed on a high level. My comment on the sequential improvement was on the commercial side. Well, Daphne, throughout the quarter, if you compare beginning of the quarter, end of the quarter and now also January, we have seen a slight Improvement and we are more optimistic now going forward for the commercial side than we were 3, 4 months ago. And the same is true in EMEA, I would say in general. I mean, in EMEA, we have also seen that slight sequential improvement with a better end of the quarter than our January Then the situation we went into the quarter. So somebody think sorry, and then we have APAC. I think the situation in India and the situation in Southeast Asia will, on the short term, remain very difficult Because the lockdowns and so on and all COVID related issues are still valid if you take Saudi Arabia for instance. Whereas I believe definitely in Greater China, we should now move from that stability profitability back into growth. And when I mentioned also we see slightly better market momentum in South Korea. Market conditions are improving because our situation in the market is improving. I would say as a summary more optimistic on the 3 geographical divisions, still harder Low on Global Technologies. Great. And I guess follow-up then just on that. So would it be fair to assume that Q1 in EMEA started as flat to positive if it was minus 1 for the quarter? And how close to positive or 0 is the Americas if it was minus 4 in the quarter? I mean, it was minus 4 in the quarter. I said that we had a sequential improvement in the quarter Better at the end of the quarter, the beginning of the quarter, you can compare with what it was in Q3. And I said it was a slight sequential improvement. So You can put a figure for where we stand now in January Q1. Okay, great. Thanks, Nico. Thank you. And our next Question comes from the line of Daniela Costa at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, good morning. I'll ask the question Well, but I'll start on the first one on following up on raw materials. I guess a few years ago, there was some difficulty in the U. S. In passing There's still price increases because of the way some of your competitors hedge. I just wanted to check how you think about that now and whether you think this time around it will be easier from a competitive standpoint to fully pass through raw materials and see no impact on margin from the headwinds. It's true that would say in general, we have seen material pricing cases go up significantly for all materials. If you take zinc, copper, Nickel, aluminum and definitely steel. You have seen it all around the world with, of course, the highest increases for steel in the U. S, A bit more moderate in Europe because you have the euro dollar exchange rate that helps. I think also Europe, there was not that much cuts in capacity like it was in the U. S. For steel. And as a matter of fact, we have seen Still going up in U. S, again 50% compared to a year ago, almost 25% over the last quarter. In general, we have always said that we like inflation and we also like material inflation because we are in a material market where it is possible to passed through those cost increases through pricing cases into the market. And we are confident that we can do that for most of our businesses. And of course, we have proactively started to increase prices already 3 months ago, and we continue to do that as indexes continue to move. Like Erik said, it's indeed around 6 months Between indexes going up or down and us seeing that in our financial statements, so we have a little bit of a buffer To anticipate, we are in most markets, I would say, a strong market leader. So it's also our goal To be a market leader when it comes to price in cases, we have done that. We have seen that many of our colleagues in the market have followed And have done the same. So we are confident we will, to a big extent, be able to compensate for the material In crisis remains to be seen, of course, how indexes further evolve. But it's clear that we will not see The tailwind anymore that we saw in 2020 where we had good Positive difference between price versus material. That is slowly Fading out and in Q4, it was already lower than in Q3. In Q1 this year, it will We're much small, but we are confident that we can keep it on a neutral level. Thank you. And then just wanted to ask you if you could help us with like the precise size of the smart locks business. I think in the past you mentioned a figure of SEK 250,000,000 a few times, but wondering if this year like other home improvement categories, how fast the growth and how much bigger it is now And what do you expect going forward? Well, indeed, it was a year ago of around SEK 2.5 billion. Today, it's on a run rate of around SEK 3,000,000,000. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Guillermo Peigneau of UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Good morning, Nico. Good morning, Erik and Bjorn. Thank you very much for taking my question. I think I have two questions Related to the cost savings program, I think you mentioned SEK 750,000,000 total, I guess SEK 500,000,000 from Manufacturing program number 8 and 250 additional incremental. I was wondering, Given that at Q4, you're in 16.1% roughly speaking, adjusted by the charges that you put out today, whether this could mean that If you think about growth in the second half next year and if you think about the savings on top, Whether you could actually be overshooting a little bit of the margin temporarily in a let's say, obviously, I know it's very difficult, But I'm wondering whether this is just that scenario. And then second, the SEK 250,000,000, can you explain the nature of the savings? Are they Going to be retained even if recovery in the market happens? Thank you. Yes. Perhaps I can start, Erik, and then feel free to add. Yes. Of course, there is when we talk about margin, there is a lot of Moving variance, I mean there is, of course, a divisional mix, there is a commercial residential mix, there is a New build aftermarket mix. And of course, there is a fact that you can't take Q4 As the reference for the full year, as you know, we are very seasonal and Q1 is very different from Q2, Q3 and Q4. And then like we mentioned, the whole tailwind on the direct material side that we will not experience anymore For the full year of 2021, at least. All that being said, I mean, if Top line stay where they are today. It's clear that we have to do more on the cost side To realize our ambition on the EBIT bandwidth and that's what we are doing. That is what we are doing with our MFP program. As we are executing New projects, new savings are coming in. If you look a bit on the question what is Short term, what is long term? It's, of course, very difficult to define what is long term, what is short term. If I take something that is definitely long term, it's the Number of people, the number of fixed people. And if you see there and compared to a year ago, we let go, unfortunately, I would say, Almost 5% of our workforce. And that is, of course, is a permanent cost That is gone and that helped us to reduce our run rate cost level. But I would argue that also some of the sorry, and we have also seen that a lot of the short term, the follow ups and so on are now translated into Permanent, yes, layoffs and then also permanent cost savings. But I would argue that also some of the you could go more valuable costs are more permanent. If you take, for instance, travel related costs, They went down in the quarter, I believe, with 60%. If you take for the full year, they are also down around that number. They will not come back to 100% even if the pandemic is completely over because obviously we have seen Some of the things where we used to travel in the past, we can do it in a much more efficient way, in a digital way. So part of those costs will also Become more permanent cost saving, sorry. And perhaps just to add, Gjermot, the SEK 750,000,000 I talked about, that's purely for the manufacturing footprint programs. It's not only the 8th, but we also have the 7th, and there's a slight thing still left on the manufacturing footprint program 6. So then that's, let's say, from the manufacturing. Then, of course, we do other things as well in order then to, let's say, adopt our cost costume. And also when we talked about the Q4, this is a net. So of course, you have some you can say, I mean gross, It's higher than the SEK 500,000,000. Understood. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Lucie Carrier of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is Good morning, gentlemen, and thanks for taking my question. And also thank you on the a lot of helpful clarification on the margin. I was curious to know what you're seeing on the inventory side of things. We hear a lot about restocking in various industries, but also some Challenges related to kind of freight inflation costs. So I was hoping whether you could give us some color on what you're seeing in your industry. Well, I think there's 2 things. Of course, when you do pricing cases, sometimes people will anticipate Orders and depending on the lead time, therefore also sales. That has happened, definitely, also in Q4. But I would say that's A phenomenon that always happens in Q4 because that's traditionally the moment in time we do the pricing cases. When it comes to stocking or destocking in the channel, I think in Europe, that It's not an explanation for Q4. We definitely had that coming out of Q2 into Q3 where we then had the destocking after the 1st wave of the pandemic in Europe Because they could not do this talking before. We still have a little bit of that, I would say, in the U. S. Where people are where the channel to market is still very hesitant, we see that also on the request for very short delivery times, Well, they are not sure what is going to happen because it stays a very turbulent time and therefore Try to keep inventories down. And we have seen definitely a destocking in the channel in the U. S. Over the last 6 months. But that's the good news. Also, you can't continue to do that. And we are definitely, I think, on the point where Yes, you can't follow you can't continue to do that. Thank you very much. And I guess My second question was to come back on the sequential improvement that you highlighted in commercial construction, I think Both in the U. S. And to some extent in EMEA. I was hoping maybe you could give us in which type of areas of commercial you are seeing this improvement And whether you are seeing actually some momentum in what I would call the renovation business rather than replacement? Yes. I think in Europe and in the US, I guess it's very similar. I mean the drops that you see, I would say, are not related to newbuild or not Related to a big extent to Newbuild in the sense that if ABI indexes go down, new construction starts go down, it takes 12, 18, sometimes even 24 months before we see that in our result because from the time that They decide to build something and they put the foundations of the building in place until they come to the door hardware. It's 12 months to 18 months to 24 months. The only slowdown we have seen on the new build is that clearly it's more difficult To execute on construction sites because of the social distancing rules, the extra measures they have to take. Also, they suffer from Capacity because they also have people that have to stay home because of COVID-nineteen infections, contaminations Yes, in family and so on. But the main decline you see today is more aftermarket related. And Obviously, our business is in the 1st place aftermarket. It's a smaller part new built. And that is true in Europe and in the Americas. We see indeed that ABI indexes are now a couple of months Below the 50%, we are perhaps a bit more optimistic than other people in the sense that we see it not falling off the cliff. And you have, Of course, a backlog of construction projects in the pipeline in the sense that if they I want the project today. It's not that they can start immediately. There is a backlog. And yes, a lower ABI index will mean that, that backlog will go down. But hopefully, confidently, by the time they come to the to our part of the business, that is leveled out to A bigger extent. Is it going to help us, the evolution of the indexes? For sure or not. But we believe that the negative effect might be Smaller than anticipated, also because we are more confident on the aftermarket side that That part of the business will gradually come back and gradually improve as people start to Go back to work as they start to use more the hardware and as we will start to see more mobility, again, Gradually now in the remaining part of the year. Thank you for the color. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Lars Wilson of Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Thank you, Nico. Can I stick with that? I thought that was quite interesting, your commentary around the outlook for Americas. I wonder whether you can help us with some preliminary thoughts on how you see 2021 play out. It sounds like you're painting a picture of a sort of a grinding lower around the projects or specifications business, Certainly not a cliff. I'm looking at expectations for sell side this year that suggests sort of mid single digit organic growth In Americas, struggling a little bit with that, particularly given your prior commentary around group overall being Sort of low single digit year this year at best. Maybe you can help us understand a little bit better what your sort of preliminary thinking is for the year around your organic growth line? Thank you. Yes, of course, we should see Organic growth again in the Americas for 2021, otherwise I would be very disappointed. Of course, that is With the market conditions we know today because, yes, if you take newbuild on one side, you have all the indexes showing something, but you also have The huge investments that the government are putting in place, all the funding that all the Local institutions are doing. But it's clear that we are very dependent on the commercial side for the Americas. 80% of our business is North America. And in North America, around 75% of that business is commercial. And our commercial business is split more or less equal between institutional and through commercial, you could say. And of course, it remains very difficult to read all the different parameters will play out on one side of the aftermarket And on the side of the new build. But like I said, I'm perhaps more positive today than I was 3, 4 months ago, Again, because I believe once mobility will increase again with all the money That is brought in by governments. We should see that aftermarket part That's after today that we should gradually see coming back. And hopefully, confidently that will Overcompensate for the drop that we will see naturally on the newbuild side. And then Terry, on the cake, sorry, is then perhaps what will happen in South America if we can keep Strong momentum there. And if we can keep the high growth pace on the residential side, of course. Sorry. No, sorry, I was just going to ask, can you clarify what your organic growth was in January at group level? I appreciate regional divisions getting better. Sounds like the 2 global divisions getting perhaps a bit worse offsetting that. So relative to the negative 5% organic in Q4, whether January coming, if I can ask. No, unfortunately, I cannot do that for you. But like I said, we have seen Slide, small sequential improvement in the Americas in EMEA, but we have not seen an improvement for Global Technologies. I think with that, you can estimate a little bit yourself. Sure. Secondly and finally, can I just ask you to clarify that you don't see negative price cost in 2021 For the group and for Americas, I think I heard you say, I think we can offset raw material inflation? That's a bit surprising to me. I go back to 2018, Where you had a couple of quarters of negative 100 basis point of price cost headwind in Americas after steel prices jumped about 50%. You mentioned something similar on steel prices. There was a year ago. I see something a bit higher than that. But maybe to ask a little bit differently, what changed Structurally since 2018 with regard to offsetting raw material inflation. Of course, one change that does not help you And does not help me is that we moved perimeter security from the Americas to engine systems. And of course, a very Important part of the dilution in the Americas came also from the steel that we use in perimeter security. That challenge will not go To Entrance Systems. Now I think there is a couple of things. 1, If you take, for instance, perimeter security, we are today less dependent from a mix Perspective on pure commodity fence sales, our mix is more towards, you could say, higher end fencing. Obviously, the price pressure is less. So that definitely should help us. And I think a similar thing on our steel door business in the Americas, our operational improvements, I think also our pricing intelligence, also what we learned from the challenges 2 years ago, must help us to get A better execution and a less strong effect this time. I don't think we will compensate Fully for steel on its own, not in the U. S. And not in perimeter security. But if you take it all together with copper, zinc, nickel and so And the pricing cases we can do overall. We will, of course, do our best to strive to neutralize the one Versus the other. Again, everything will depend on how indexes now further evolve in the coming months because we see them Continuing going up, they have further and up now also in January. Very helpful. Thank you. Operator, I think we have time for one more question, please. Thank you. Then our final question comes from the line of Andre Kuegmann of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Good morning. Thanks very much for squeezing me in. I just wanted to get the kind of final number for savings for 2021, please, if possible. So if I could have a go. So we've got SEK 7.50 from the manufacturing footprint programs. And then some normal savings, which do you expect something similar to kind of the usual run rate of kind of 2% or 3% of the cost base? And then we could kind of think about some reversal of the temporary savings. And for that, we can make our own assumptions, but maybe you could tell us how much they were This temporary savings in 2020 in total? You want to answer Erik? I mean, I think, First of all, it's a little bit what Nico said before is that, I mean, we have a mixed bag. Of course, we talk about the SEK750 1,000,000 that we have from the manufacturing footprint programs. Then we have some more permanent savings. But then you also have this with the SEMI Permanent, which of course is very much pending on, let's say, how business evolved. I mean, we talked about before about travel costs as one of these items. So it's we don't I mean it's and yes, so that's a bit And then of course, if you look in 2020, I would say that we have gradually moved over from Temporary to permanent savings, as we have alluded to in all of these calls. So I think more and more of these ones that we have are permanent. Thank you. And then if I just may follow-up, the €750,000,000 of savings, do you expect that to come from kind of new actions that haven't Yes, taking place. Is that the right way to think about it? Yes. Because where the vast majority from it From the new MFP program and there we just are starting now the new projects. Of course, we have already executed on some of them and we have started to see Some savings, but more to come this year, yes. Great. Thank you. And if I just may very finally to again get Clarity and final point. In terms of kind of price versus cost versus logistics, can you comment on that, whether you expect That potentially to be neutral or net negative? It will definitely not be positive for the full year if you see where the indexes are going and definitely also, yes, container costs from China, I assume that is You are alluding to is a high hopefully temporary cost. But of course, we will do everything we can. And with the information we have today, we will, of course, strive to neutralize material price increases through Pricing cases. Got it. Thank you, Nick. I was thinking about logistics costs together, raw materials inflation versus price, Whether you'd be able to compensate that with price or not? Yes. And that's what I said. If you take Cost of purchasing, let's call it like that, versus price, we aim and the Verbals driver will do our best To neutralize the strong cost price increase, material price increases, logistic increases And compensate them to pricing cases. But again, everything will depend on how indexes further evolve. Thank you, Andre. Thank you very much, Percev. Thank you. It's now time to round up this conference. I hope it has been helpful. And if there are any follow-up questions or queries, don't hesitate to contact Holger or myself at Investor Relations. And we do look forward to speaking with you in the coming weeks then. In the meantime, stay safe and thank you for now. Bye. Thank you. Thank you.