ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (STO:ASSA.B)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Feb 7, 2024

Björn Tibell
Head of Investor Relations, ASSA ABLOY

Good morning, and welcome to the presentation of ASSA ABLOY's 2023 Year-End Report. My name is Björn Tibell. I'm heading Investor Relations, and joining me here are ASSA ABLOY CEO Nico Delvaux and our CFO Erik Pieder. We will now start with a summary of the presentation of the results before we open up for your questions. With that, I'd like to hand over to you, Nico.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Thanks, Björn, and good morning also from my side. Q4 report can say that we had a good end of a very strong 2023 for ASSA ABLOY. I would say Q4 results very similar to Q3 results as well, percent-wise as absolute value-wise. We had a low positive organic growth of 0.5% in the quarter. It was slightly below 0.5%, therefore rounded off to 0% in the quarter, where it was slightly above 0.5% in Q3 and therefore rounded off to 1%. We have a strong sales growth in Americas, a good sales growth in Entrance Systems, and then sales decline in the other divisions.

But then also this quarter, good to see that a lower organic growth is overcompensated by growth through acquisitions, 11% net in the quarter. In total top line, up 12%, 1% held by currency at SEK 37 billion, sorry. And then a very strong operational execution with an operating leverage on that 0.5% growth of more than 330%, giving a very strong underlying margin. If we exclude HHI of 16.8%, if we include HHI, 15.5%. And then a record strong operating cash flow in the quarter of SEK 7.3 billion.

We also continue high acquisition pace with six acquisitions signed in the quarter. Was a record year when it comes to number acquisitions, and obviously also when it comes to value of acquisitions. If you look in the numbers, like I said, SEK 37 billion top line, 12% up, 0.5% organic growth, 11% net acquisition, and then 0.5% by currency, 1%. An EBITDA margin of high 17.5% if we exclude HHI and HHI-related costs, and then the EBIT margin, like I mentioned, at 16.8. EBIT at SEK 5.7 billion, also 12% up.

If you look a little bit in the different regions, starting with North America, an organic growth of minus 2%, where we should make difference, because the minus two is mainly explained by Global Technologies, HID. Where you know that last year, same quarter, we were recovering on the backlog that we built up because of the electronic component shortages, and that backlog is gone in Q4 last year. Therefore, we had a more important negative growth for the PACS business in HID, explaining the minus 2%. If you take the Americas division, we still see a good strong momentum on the commercial side. Perhaps not as hot anymore as 18 months ago, but still very good market conditions.

Where on the residential side, in also North America, obviously, the market remains, challenging, but where we also said in Q3, we believe that, the residential market is bottoming, out, and from here on, we should start to see if improvement also on the residential side in North America. We see that also in our, HHI, business, which was in the quarter only 1% down, organically. If we then go to, South America, +17%, where we continue to see good momentum, in our, traditional, business, and where the figure is a little bit inflated because of, a bigger, Citizen ID, order for, HID in that, continent. And the same is true for Africa, +28%.

It's mainly explained by a bigger Citizen ID project for HID. Going to Europe, 0%, definitely Europe is the most challenging continent so far because of challenging conditions on the residential side. Nothing has changed there really compared to Q3 2023. I will not say it's getting worse, but it's definitely not improving yet. We see a new build in residential down a bit everywhere in Europe. We see also R&R down, and especially in the Nordics, which obviously also has a negative mix effect on our bottom line, because the Nordics is also the part of Europe where we make the better margins.

If we then go to Australia and New Zealand, +3, very similar, I would say, to U.S. and Europe, with still good momentum on the commercial side, but also more challenging market conditions on the residential side. And then last but not least, Asia, +5, where we see a strong Middle East, a strong India, and where, for the first time since, you know, many quarters in China, we had positive, slight positive, 1% organic growth, if we exclude intercompany and if we exclude, or correct for the divestments we made related to the HHI acquisition. We believe that recovery in China will be slow, but we are convinced that the market has bottomed out in China.

Therefore, also good to see the 10% growth in emerging markets. Some highlights in the quarter, some project wins for a German energy company, more than 100,000 master key system cylinders. Very nice project. Then some docking solutions and high-speed doors for two large electric vehicle battery plants in the U.S. Also here, reference projects for us. And then HID that has been awarded the contract in Finland for new high-security driver license cards. And we were able also to secure 15 MW reservoir sites in the Middle East and equip them with TESA SMARTair solutions.

Product launches, very excited about our new internal developed speed gate product line in entrance system, in close collaboration with HID, using biometric technology from HID. We had a new range of high-end high-secure doors, mainly for government and diplomatic facilities applications. And then we launched a new product range of smart digital door locks. Smart digital door locks that have fingerprint reading, face recognition, and also digital door view capabilities, all integrated in the product. These products are launched in Asia, in United States, in China in particular.

Then good to see that we are now, for the third year in a row, named as one of the companies in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. Also, giving us credit for all the sustainability efforts we are making as a group. If I then look at the growth, so it's now 12 consecutive quarters with a positive organic growth, smaller positive organic growth in the last two quarters, like I mentioned, but then overcompensated by strong growth through acquisitions. And obviously, the strong growth through acquisitions will also now continue this year. Then a good margin improvement on a running rate at 16.8% if we exclude HHI.

If we include HHI at 15.8, so very close to the band which we aim for. So good top line, improved margin, therefore, also strong operating profit, 20% up in 2023. Acquisitions, like I mentioned earlier, six acquisitions signed in the quarter, 24 in the year. That's a record in number. It's a record also in value. They represent sales of around SEK 20 billion. If I highlight two Leone Fence complementing our perimeter security business in North America, they are a strong player in the Canadian market and have a sales of around SEK 300 million. And then Ghost Controls, an acquisition in entrance systems, supplier of automated residential gate openers, also having a sales of around SEK 300 million.

If I then go into the different divisions, EMEA, I would say an organic sales decline of only two percent. I think it's a good result if we take into account market conditions in general and residential market conditions in the Nordics in particular. We've seen strong growth in Middle East, India and Africa. We have seen good growth still in South Europe, stable growth in Central Europe, but then, yeah, clearly a sales decline in U.K. and Ireland and the Nordics. And especially the Nordics also explains then the operating margin, because it gave us also an important negative mix. Despite that, still an operating margin of 14.4 percent. I think on the minus 2% organic sales, a good volume leverage.

EMEA has done a very good job in adapting the cost to the lower top line. I think in the last six months, they took out around 450 million SEK of costs, therefore limiting the operating dilution to 50 basis points. Also did good price management and other operational gains. They were also hit by FX, 20 basis points, and then M&A was a creative 10 basis points. If I go to Americas, another very strong quarter with an organic sales growth of 5%, with good growth in our commercial business in North America. Good growth also in Latin America. Our sales declined in U.S. residential, but that's obviously organically now a very small part of our business here.

For residential, we should look at HHI, and like I mentioned, HHI was having an organic growth of minus 1% in the quarter. Very strong operating margin of 23.8% if we exclude HHI and HHI-related costs. 17.6% if we include HHI. Very strong operating leverage, good price versus cost execution and good operational efficiency realization. Helped by FX, 30 basis points, and then, of course, the dilution of HHI. HHI was having an EBIT of 8.9%, but then we had also one-off closing and integration costs for HHI, around 180 million SEK. When it comes to...

Closing and integration costs, we are—you could say—almost done in that aspect, that this year you should not expect a significant cost anymore, anymore. And then we reverse some of the PPA. Erik will come back on that later in the presentation. If we then go to APAC, an organic sales of minus 1%, with a very strong sales growth in Southeast Asia, stable sales growth in China. As a matter of fact, if you take only external sales into account, you take intercompany out, and you correct for the divestment we did linked to the HHI acquisition, we had a slight 1% positive organic growth in China. So clearly market bottoming out, and from here we will see a gradual improvement.

But then we saw sales decline in South Korea. I think South Korea also on the residential side, challenging, and then a sales decline in Pacific, and that's mainly explained by our fenestration business in the U.S., the window hardware business in the U.S., which had still a very difficult comparison and is of course directly linked to OEM residential business. But where we also see, I would say a lower sales decline and where the comparison now going forward will also become easier. Another sign that gives us confidence on the fact that we believe the residential market is bottoming out in North America. An operating margin of 4.3%, a strong improvement compared to a COVID quarter a year ago.

Good operating very strong operating leverage, actually, but then, a strong dilution of FX, 90 base points because of the weaker Australian dollar, and also 40 base points, dilution on M&A related to, the divestment in Vietnam, linked to the HHI acquisition. If we then go to Global Tech, an organic sales decline of minus 7%. We had a very strong sales growth in Citizen ID. It's now several quarters in a row that we see Citizen ID coming back, top line wise. I think we have done also a very good job on, on the cost side, and we are back in black numbers, with Citizen ID. And then you can read yourself for the other business areas from Global Technologies.

I would highlight again, PACS, Physical Access Control, which had an important sales decline compared to the same quarter a year ago, and that is again explained by the fact that a year ago we were eating up and invoicing the backlog that we built up because of semiconductor shortages. And that backlog was not there now in Q4 last year. As we also saw a strong sales growth in Global Solutions in all the different business areas. But obviously, the fact that we grew faster in Citizen ID and had more negative growth in PACS also had an important negative mix effect on the operating margin.

Therefore, only an operating margin of 15.5%, where we saw operating dilution of 40 basis points, FX flat, and then an important dilution of M&A, 120 basis points. I would say that's mainly one-off acquisition costs related to the closing and the acquisition of Evolis. So those costs should not come back in the coming quarters. And then last but not least, Entrance Systems, a good strong end of a very strong year for Entrance Systems and organic sales of 3%. Very strong sales growth in perimeter security, strong sales growth in industrial and pedestrian, and then continued sales decline, but less decline on the residential side, mainly our garage door business in North America.

And you see there a little bit, you know, that industrial and pedestrian growth compensates for sales decline in residential. The comparison for residential will also become now easier as of the second part of this quarter. Also, very good, so strong growth in service above 10%. So delivering on our ambition to grow the service business high single digit for the coming years. That growth in service also helps us in the mix and explains a very strong operating margin of 17.4%, because we know that we make better margins on service than on equipment. Did very good job on the pricing side, price versus material cost, and very good operational efficiency gains again in the quarter.

FX dilute is 10 basis points, and M&A dilutive, 30 basis points. And with that, I give the work to Erik for some more details on the financial numbers. Erik?

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Thank you, Nico, and a very good morning from my side as well. You've heard the numbers, the sales numbers on the quarter, so let's zoom in a bit on the full year, where we actually, in value, reached above SEK 140 billion. We were close to SEK 141 billion for the full year, which was an increase of 16%, where if you do the split, 3% came through organic growth, 8% came through acquisitions, and 5% was related to currency. If we then move back to the quarter, and these numbers are including HHI, operating income was up with 11%. If you look on EBITDA, we are at the same level, Q4 2023, as what we were at the same quarter in 2022 at 16.2.

The EBIT margin is slightly lower, 20 basis points, and we ended at 15.5%. If you look then just on the full year on the EBIT margin, we're actually 50 basis points better in 2023 than what we were in 2022 and ended at 15.8%. Income before tax, there, yes, I mean, interest rates have gone up. We have also, yeah, paid a bunch of money then I would say for HHI, which has increased our debt. So in the quarter, roughly SEK 840 million were related to interest costs, which is an increase of roughly SEK 450 million compared to the year before.

If we then look for 2024, our estimate is that our interest rates cost, we are providing that the interest rate stays at this level that they are right now, roughly SEK 3.5 billion. Net income and earnings per share in the quarter was up with 6%. If you look on the full year, they were up with 13%, and the earnings per share ended for the full year at SEK 13.54. As mentioned before by Nico, we had a record cash flow in Q4, above SEK 7.3 billion, up with 11%. If you look in the full year, we actually generated more than SEK 25 billion, which is 60% up compared to the year before. Finally, on this slide, return on capital employed ended on 15.6%.

If we dissect a bit and look a bit on the bridge, the 40 basis points organic growth, if we then divide it a bit, we had a little bit more than plus 2% in price, which sort of consequently mean that we were, yeah, about minus 2% when it comes to volume. Nico mentioned before, you can see that the flow through on 337%. Where- I mean, I think we had a very good, let's say, price versus versus cost when it comes to material. We have also done, if you take the MFP together with the short-term cost measures, it's a little bit more than SEK 500 million, of which 40% of that comes from MFP, and the rest is related to short-term cost measures.

No real material effect from the currencies. On the M&A, excluding HHI, it had no negative impact, and I think considering also that we talked before about Evolis had a negative impact, we have quite a few on the acquisitions that we did last year, which is actually performing really, really well. If we then take the next slide and zoom a bit in on HHI. As mentioned before by Nico, we start to, let's say, be more confident also that we see signs of stabilization on the residential market, where you can see that the sales were actually only 1% lower than the same quarter last year. The EBITDA margin is up with 2.5 points and ended in the quarter at 14.9.

If you then take the adjusted EBIT, also, I'm just repeating what Nico said before, we ended on 8.9, which is 130 basis points better than what we had in Q3. Here, I'm excluding the closing and integration cost of SEK 180 million in Q4. We've also finalized the PPA evaluation, where we would then end up on a number, if you look on the goodwill versus the PPA, of about 15%, which means that going forward, the PPA for the full year impact on the result will be about $60 million per year. Which would, however, when we talk about that, we start to see improvements.

Keep in mind that Q4 and Q1 are the seasonal, more weaker quarters for HHI, and but we still sort of confirm that HHI will have a positive impact on our EPS for 2024. And the cost breakdown and direct material is 240 basis points better than the same period last year. Of this, roughly 90 basis points is related to mix, where we had a stronger Americas, a weaker EMEA, as well as a weaker APAC. But then also we have within entrance, we have the, let's say, interdivisional mix, as talked before by Nico, that we also see a strong growth in service, which also helps us on the direct material part. Conversion is 100 basis points lower.

There, we are hit by the lower volumes, by the higher wage costs, but we have been able to offset it by what I mentioned before, the MFP and other short-term cost measures. SG&A is about at the same level. It's slightly, yeah, slightly higher at 20 basis points. As highlighted before, we had a record cash flow in the quarter. We have a record cash flow in the year. I think that there, we've had a strong EBIT and EBT contribution. You can see the cash conversion rate for the full year was at 128%. If you look in the quarter, it was above 150%. I think I talked about EBIT, but we also sort of have seen good work done in reducing our inventory.

This has sort of generated then that we have been able to reduce our net debt with SEK 4.6 billion. There, of course, yes, we have also had some help on the currency, but we are continuously being able to lower it despite that we are continuing acquiring companies. Net debt to EBITDA ended at the quarter at 2.3. Part of it, why it goes down, is also, of course, purely mathematics, because we get more EBITDA in every quarter than from HHI. But I think that we sort of, with these numbers, we can continue our acquisition strategy, because we have a very sound financial situation. Earnings per share, as mentioned before, ended at 13.54, which yeah, which sort of is a record, I would say, for the group.

With that comment, I hand it back to the CEO again.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Thanks, Erik. So, as a conclusion, a good end of a strong 2023 for ASSA ABLOY. We're still a positive organic growth of 0.5%, a lower organic growth, but then overcompensated with strong growth through acquisitions of net 11%. Strong operational execution, with a good bottom line and strong margin and record cash flow. It's clear that we are operating in uncertain economic climate. Things are changing every day, but we still see several markets that are showing good momentum. We see also several verticals that still show very good opportunities. On the other hand, there is markets like our home market here in Sweden, and then particular for the residential vertical that remain very challenging.

So it's a matter for us to continue to take opportunities there, where we see opportunities, and further strengthen our relative position in the market. And then in those markets where we see more tough conditions, make sure that we adapt cost and protect bottom line and cashflow. And that's what we have been doing throughout the year. That's what we will do also, this year. And there again, our decentralized organization, being able to make decisions locally based on local market conditions, gives us that agility and that efficiency, and gives us also, we are convinced, a competitive advantage, yeah, in the market. The board proposes a dividend of 5.4 SEK based on AGM approval.

Of course, then the idea would be to split the payment in two equal tenures, just like we also did last year. And then last but not least, Björn asked me to remind you that we have our Capital Markets Day on the 14th and the 15th of May. 14th of May in Prague, and then on the 15th of May, we will visit our EMEA factory in Řičany. And with that, I give the word back to Björn for Q&A.

Björn Tibell
Head of Investor Relations, ASSA ABLOY

Thank you very much. Yeah, thanks for that reminder. Everyone, this means that we are ready now to open up for questions. But before we do that, please remember that we ask you to ask just one question each, with a follow-up, so we hopefully can get through the list of, where everyone who would like to ask questions. So with that, operator, it means that we are ready to open up for questions. Please go ahead.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder for questions, please press star and one on your telephone. The first question from Daniela Costa, Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, madam.

Daniela Costa
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. Thank you. So my first question is, can you give us a bit about thinking how you're considering pricing this year? Maybe I'll start there and I'll follow up.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Yeah. Morning, Daniela. So of course, we come out of a very high inflationary cycle, where, if you take a year and a half ago, steel was up, you know, 200% in the U.S. That has calmed down. I think most materials are still on a high stable level and still even went up again in recent months. Next to that, we continue to have higher labor inflation and general inflation. So we also expect a better price component this year than what we used to have historically prior to COVID-19 times. I would say even if you look prior to COVID-19 times, we were in a low inflationary world, where price was around one percent , sometimes a bit lower, sometimes slightly higher.

You know, we would be disappointed if now this year that price component would not be above two percent, because clearly we continue to live in a higher inflationary world. We will get some price carryover from last year, around one percent, and then we have continued to increase prices in December, January, and also in February. So we will see how much of that price increases we really can realize in practice. But again, we would be disappointed if it would not be around or above that two percent.

Daniela Costa
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Very clear. Thank you. Maybe as a follow-up on the global tech trends, I guess for parts of global tech, you probably have, you know, some tendering or some visibility before the deals close. Can you comment a little bit on what you're seeing in tendering activities so that we have an idea of normalized levels, given the backlog is now off?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Yeah, I think the ones where the biggest projects long term are coming is obviously Citizen ID. And there, I also mentioned during the presentation that we have seen several quarters with strong growth. If you take the different verticals in Global Solutions, also there we continue to see very nice organic growth, I would say for all verticals, and in particular also for Hospitality, which is our biggest vertical in Global Solutions. I think the one that is more difficult to read is obviously PACS, cards and readers, which is by far the biggest business area in HID.

Yeah, we are still having difficulties to really understand the order pattern, because we compare with quarters that were very inflated because of the invoicing of the backlog. We come also from quarters a year ago, where our delivery times were very long, and now our delivery times are very, very much normalized. So we have the, you know, we have the impression at least that PACS is back on a, I would call it, normal growth pattern, in a sense that PACS historically has been growing this mid-single digit stable growth.

I believe once the disturbances in the comparison with the backlog are over, that should be a good number for our PACS business in HID.

Operator

Thank you. The next question from Vivek Midha, Citi, please go ahead.

Vivek Midha
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Thanks very much. Could I follow up on the price cost kind? So I think you broke out, with the direct material about 240 basis points in the quarter. And around 150 of that is price cost and not mix. Is that a good guide for how that's going to continue going into 2024? Or is that likely to taper off? Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

As you know, we don't guide, but let me try to give a little bit of a flavor. What we said after Q3 is that we believed that we were peaking in Q3, cost versus price. And that indeed has been the case, because if you correct for the mix, price versus cost in Q4 was 140 base point-150 basis points contribution, where I think it was 160 basis points in Q3. So it definitely stayed on a good, positive, high level in Q4. We believe that will still be the case in Q1. We still should get good, stronger contribution from price versus cost in Q1. In Q2, obviously, that will go down.

But also in Q2, I believe we should still get a positive occasion, but on a lower level. Then where the second half of the year, it should be normalized and become more neutral. Everything will depend, of course, again, on how much we will be able to realize from the price increases in practice, or the price increases that we initiated in December, January and February. And it will obviously also depend on what the material indexes will do now in the coming months. Because, as you know, there is around six months time difference between material indexes going up or down, and us seeing it in our income statement.

Vivek Midha
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question from Gael de Bray , Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Gael de Bray
Managing Director and Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Oh, thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. I appreciate the earlier comment on Global Tech that the sales decline is essentially due to pretty tough comps because of the backlog execution. But if I take a step backwards, I mean, Global Tech revenues are still kind of flat organically, if I compare the current level of activity to pre-COVID levels. So can you perhaps give a bit more color into what is holding down the Global Tech segment? And then perhaps talk about any change you've begun to institute and when these changes might actually have more of an impact on the growth dynamics for the segment.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Hmm. I believe this is not correct, Gael. I think if you look at levels of Global Tech, we are nicely above pre-COVID levels. I think what-

Gael de Bray
Managing Director and Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

On an organic?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Yes, yes, organically. What has brought it a little bit down, if you look over the whole period prior to COVID and compared to now, is clearly Citizen ID, where we have commented several times that with Citizen ID, we are still significantly below COVID pre-COVID levels, despite the fact that we have seen nice growth now in Citizen ID a couple of quarters. So that explains part of it. If you look shorter term, of course, yes, you have also the PACS impact, again, the high backlog last year and the sales decline this year. But organically, we are, you know, higher now than prior to COVID 2019 levels.

If you take and you make the split between HID and Global Solutions in the different verticals, we have seen nice higher single- and even double-digit growth there. Definitely, we're also higher than prior to COVID-19 levels, where the recovery in hospitality took a little bit longer, but today we are also on a important higher level than prior to COVID-19 for hospitality.

Gael de Bray
Managing Director and Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Okay, thanks.

Operator

The next question from Mattias Holmberg, DNB. Please go ahead.

Mattias Holmberg
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Hi, good morning. Can you talk a little bit more about the short-term cost saving initiatives in Q4? I would expect that to a large extent, we're targeting EMEA and other regions that you talked about earlier in the year. But it would be interesting to hear if you expanded them into any other regions or product categories. And also on a similar topic, if you could give any first comments on the new MFP you intend to launch later this year. If there are any regions in particular you have in mind, would be interesting to hear if you have HHI or anything else on the agenda that was sort of a bit left out of the last MFP. Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

So the cost savings, as Erik mentioned, it's around SEK 300 million extra savings in the quarter. And you are right that most of that is in Europe, and you're right that most of that was in EMEA. But obviously, we see the more challenging situation on the residential side in Europe in general, and in the Nordics in particular. Where we, like I said, adjust our cost to the lower top line to protect bottom line and cash flow. And we have done that a little bit in all markets in Europe. 'Cause we see that residential challenge a little bit, yeah, in most markets in Europe.

But again, mainly EMEA and a little bit of entrance systems. When it comes to MFP, we will most probably launch that towards the end of the year. It will be a very similar program, most probably alike all the previous MFP programs. We are just starting to generate ideas, so it's too early to say which divisions. But it will be most probably like all the previous MFPs, all divisions will contribute. And yeah, clearly, we now with having HHI, or being the owners of HHI, it might give us extra opportunities to do more MFP. We will see going forward. We are still very much very early in the phase of that MFP program.

We are still working very hard on realizing the savings on the existing MFP program.

Mattias Holmberg
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Thank you.

Operator

The next question from Andrei Kukhnin, UBS. Please go ahead.

Andrei Kukhnin
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yes, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question. I wondered if you could talk about how your spec writers activity developed during the quarter, and what sequential trends are you seeing there across Europe and Americas? And maybe just offer a bit of color on how that kind of compares and why would that differ versus what we see as the lead indicators for more kind of traditional lead indicators for non-residential construction activity like ABI.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Yeah, of course, there, we also have the fact that we compare now with more difficult, higher numbers, a year ago. But our spec business was still up, mid single digit. If you look at Americas, Europe and Australia, New Zealand being our, more important, markets. And similar trends as we explained before, we see a further shift from mechanical to electromechanical and digital. We see also, green, specs, being the ones with the highest growth, mainly in EMEA. If you look at the different, verticals, also no changes to what we said, earlier. We still see good momentum on education, and on, healthcare, which are important, verticals, for us.

But in general, quite similar patterns for the different verticals, with the exception, obviously, and that should not be a surprise of offices, where we see a more important negative growth in the spec business. So that's a bit in, you could say, in contradiction with what ABI index has showed us now the last four or five months. ABI index is, of course, one indicator. You can also look at Dutch KPIs, and there the picture looks a little bit more positive. I can only say what we see in the market and what we hear from—also from our channel partners. Again, we still see good momentum on the non-residential side as well in North Americas, in Europe, in general.

Again, perhaps it's not as hot as 18 months ago, but it's still on a very good, healthy level. Proves the, you know, the growth, the 5% growth that we have seen in the Americas in the quarter.

Andrei Kukhnin
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Great. Thank you very much. If I may just use a follow-up to double-check on the Americas HHI-related costs. If you could make it very easy for us, please, could you just give us a number of total purely kind of acquisition-related costs for 2023? And as a side to that, the SEK 60 million of PPA amortization for 2024 that you pointed to, is that similar to what you saw in 2023, or is that a step up?

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

If we take the last part first, let's say in Q3, we had anticipated higher, so we were actually at $80 million, and that's why you have now a reversal that we talked about the 100 and, sorry, the 60 million SEK that we had then, which is included in Q4. So coming back, we can say that we started with calculating with $80 million per year, and now it's, we have now finalized it, and now we're down to SEK 60 million. If you look on the acquisition and integration cost.

I said they are done. I think we had SEK 180 million then in Q4. We had roughly the same in, in Q3, so let's say about SEK 200 million. But now, as of now, that number will go down significantly. So I think we have taken that, so that you should not take into when you do the calculation then for 2024.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

The non-PPA-

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Right

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

should calculate with a number below, slightly below 60

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Yeah

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

-million now for this year. And you should, you know, consider that integration and closing costs will not be significant anymore this year. And in that aspect, if you look at Q4, the 8.9% EBIT is, you could say, a clean number. The 14.9% EBITDA is also a-

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Yeah

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

-clean reference, number. And that I think should be the two numbers you have in mind going forward. Because obviously, also as we now will have not one-off costs anymore, as of this year, as of this year, we will start to report HHI just like the residential segment in the Americas. And not break it out anymore, and do a similar reporting like we do for the segments in Entrance Systems.

Andrei Kukhnin
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Thank you. But you also had HHI deal-related costs in H1 of last year as well, right? Because you had the legal team working throughout the whole DOJ process.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Yes. Yes, we did.

Andrei Kukhnin
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

And how much were they, just to, for completeness?

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

I would say in Q1-

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

I think it was around SEK 90 million.

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Yeah, I think it was sort of the running pace in Q1 was roughly SEK 30 million per month. So I mean, SEK 90 million-SEK 100 million is sort of what you will have, I mean, as a one-off from last year, which of course will not be repeated in 2024 Q1.

Andrei Kukhnin
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Great. Thank you. Thank you. Appreciate your time, and sorry to be a number of questions.

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Oh, thank you.

Operator

The next question from James Moore, Redburn. Please go ahead.

James Moore
Partner and Senior Equity Analyst, Redburn Atlantic

Well, good morning, everyone. Nico, Erik, a perfect segue from Andrei. I have a follow-up on HHI, if I could, in two parts. If the 8.9 and the 14.9 are the kind of clean base, but when we look back in, I don't know, the few years before COVID, HHI was making a 19% EBITDAR margin. And obviously, we've had some cyclical pressures since then. I get that. But should we think about HHI's underlying margin before synergies, going back to that kind of level as the cycle recovers? And is it that the synergies are on top of that? And my follow-up question is really about the synergies. Do you still feel confident on the $100 million?

Do you think you can make that number bigger now that you've looked at it closer, and have you changed your thoughts on it? Have you changed your mind on the phasing? Is it still straight line, or can it be a bit more hockey stick or front-end loaded? Any details on that would be great.

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Perhaps first, James, I think that the 19 you talked about in EBITDA, that was, let's say, when they had some really good years. I think the normal level, if you take the period before, was, let's say, ±17.5 EBITDA. And, I don't think... I mean, from my end, perhaps, let's see if Nico has a different view. I don't see any reason why, let's say, further down, that we should, that they should stand alone, be able to come back to that level. I don't know if you want to have another comment there or if you have something on the synergies.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

No, no, I agree. We should, we should temper a little bit the ambition of James. The, the number James mentioned was, you know, the record quarter, number. The real number is a bit more in line with what, what Erik was, was saying. But I think there is no, I would say, no reason why over time we should not be able to, to have similar EBITDA, numbers, again, with, HHI. You could argue perhaps that they were a little bit underinvested in R&D and underinvested in, in, equipment in, in, in the factories. And therefore, it could be a little bit lower, but that then should indeed be overcompensated by the $100 million bottom line synergies that we have laid out, when we, closed the, the deal.

We are still very confident on the $100 million. It will be a lot of hard work, but we believe the number is realistic and achievable. As a matter of fact, we start to realize the first savings. We have done some work on the pricing, which is the easiest and the fastest return, I would say. We have brought our pricing experts into HHI. We are building a dedicated pricing team in HHI. We also start to see the first savings when it comes to purchasing on materials, as we both buy, for instance, steel or aluminum. One of the two buys it at a better price. So combining volumes and buying them at the best price gives us good significant savings.

We are starting to fill factories and insourcing some of the components that we were buying from third parties, and therefore get better utilization in the different HHI factories. We are investing in R&D as well on the mechanicals and electromechanical side. Obviously there, we don't have the realized financial synergies yet, because that takes a little bit longer to launch new products. But I think there's a lot of activities going on, and we start to see the first results. So yes, we are confident on the $100 million bottom line synergies. And like we said, we have the ambition to bring HHI over time back to that 16% EBIT margin.

James Moore
Partner and Senior Equity Analyst, Redburn Atlantic

Thanks very much.

Operator

The next question from Alexander Virgo, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Alexander Virgo
Senior Equity Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah, morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. I wondered if you could talk about the sort of current trading, I guess. I appreciate you don't provide guidance, but I wondered if you could talk a little bit to the trends that you're seeing, exiting 2024, 2023, I'm sorry, and coming into Q1. I think EM, EMEA was possibly a little better than I'd expected. Americas possibly a little better there as well. But you called out R&R markets down in Europe and stabilizing resi in North America. So I wondered if you could just give us a sense of magnitude or a sense of how things are progressing as you see things today. Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

So I guess you are a bit after after run rates. Of course, it's a difficult period to really give a qualified answer in the sense that, you know, December and January are holiday months. We have Chinese New Year in between, that this year is in February, where it was last year in January. What is also particular in Q1 now is that we have one working day more in January, one working day more in February, but then three working days less in March. And obviously, March is normally the bigger month in Q1. But if you look at rates in January, I would say that they are very similar, if you correct for working days, as the rates we have seen throughout Q4.

And throughout Q4, it has been rather stable as it was, you know, towards Q3, as well. So we haven't seen any significant deceleration or, or acceleration. And again, I think market conditions on the commercial side stay on a, on a good, healthy level and perhaps with more, normal growth levels, again, also because of the more difficult, comparison. And residential is not further, declining, but it's, it's not really improving neither, where we believe on the residential side, U.S. is further down in the cycle and, and EMEA is still, earlier in the cycle. In other words, it will perhaps, show faster recovery in the U.S. than it will show, in, in Europe.

Alexander Virgo
Senior Equity Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Thank you. Could I just follow up quickly on Global Tech? Your comps obviously remain very tough into Q1, Q2. So is the Q4 base level a sensible place to start as we look for the first half of the year?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

I think that is the case. And indeed, I think Q1 in general is still a difficult quarter from a comparison perspective. Again, one working day less in Q1, and it was a very strong quarter a year ago for Americas and for Global Tech, and therefore also in general. But definitely for those two divisions, it's yeah, challenging comparison with a quarter... with a year ago.

Alexander Virgo
Senior Equity Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, great. Thanks, Nico.

Operator

The next question from Andreas Koski, Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Andreas Koski
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Okay. Thank you, and good morning. I have a question on your performance in EMEA. You mentioned that you were happy with the organic sales performance, organically down only 2% when building construction markets are very weak. So what do you explains your outperformance in EMEA? Do you think there is a risk that there is a lag effect here, and the weakness is yet to come for you, or are you gaining market share? Or why is the performance so good relative to the market? Thank you.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

I think there's obviously markets where we have a stronger position. There is markets where we have a weaker position. It's clear in those those markets where you have a stronger position, it's difficult to do better than the market. In those markets where we still have a weaker position, we believe we can continue to do better than the market, irrespective of market conditions. You have seen that we are growing very nicely in India, Africa, Middle East, which is still a part of EMEA with good market conditions and where we are definitely also performing on a high level in a good market.

We have also seen still, perhaps for some people, surprisingly good market conditions in South Europe. So it's a little bit of a mixed picture. And then, clearly, the Nordics is challenging, but in general, it's more challenging on new build than on R&R. And as you know, we are less exposed to new build and more on the R&R side. EMEA was also the division which was later with price increases in the cycle, and therefore they're also profiting still more now from the price realization than some of the other divisions we have in the group. Their price component was higher than the average price of slightly above 2% that Erik mentioned earlier.

Andreas Koski
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Thank you. And then I would like to follow up on Alex's question about the start of this year. In Q4 2023, you also had one fewer working day, as you have now in Q1, so that should not be any different on a year-over-year basis. Is that correct?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

That's correct. But of course, you have the seasonality between Q4 and Q1. And in that aspect, it's also good news that Q2, Q3 and Q4 this year will all three have one working day more than a year ago. So yeah, Q1 will be tough because you have one working day less, but then the next three quarters will have one working day better. So in total, for the year, we'll have two working days more this year as compared to last year.

Andreas Koski
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Thank you.

Operator

The next question from Johan Sjöberg, Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Sorry-

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Sorry, uh-

Operator

Yes, thank you.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Sorry, my question is regarding sort of to get back to you on the Americas margin here. But just to look going into 2024, looking at the underlying margin development, I understand that it's a little bit confusing, to be honest, looking at all the one-offs which you had during 2023 year also the amortization. I would like to see sort of if you could give some sort of indication where margins should be at the beginning of this year, and also given your forecast and your projections about HHI being EPS accretive, what sort of underlying margin development do you expect in Americas throughout 2024? Thank you.

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

But Johan, you talk specifically about HHI, because I think if you take for the rest, I don't think we've had that many, let's say, one-offs.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Your question is more directly HHI, right?

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes. Yes, yes.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

I think if you take Americas excluding HHI, I think the margins were at, at which they are today, I think is a very healthy strong strong level. And what we said about price cost in general for the group is also obviously valid for the Americas. So I think what we have been doing over recent quarters is a good reference for our traditional business in the Americas. If you take HHI, you can see that the last two quarters we have shown EBIT and EBITDA improvement quarter after quarter. We have the ambition to continue to do so for the coming quarters.

Obviously, everything will depend a bit on you know how the residential market will evolve in the U.S., and therefore what our top line will do. I should also be aware that HHI is seasonal in the sense that Q3, from a top-line perspective, is always the best quarter, and then Q4 and Q1 are lower quarters, and then you start to recover. But then again, irrespective of the seasonality, we have the ambition to continue to improve margin quarter after quarter now for you know for this year as you know so also some of the synergies start to kick in. But just the numbers that we show, the 14.9 EBITDA and the 8.9 EBIT, that is excluding the one-offs.

You can call it, those are clean numbers that we provided you.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, good. And then also just if you are—if I, if I look at sort of the margins for, for the starting point of 2024 for, for Americas, do you, do you think that the, the Q4 numbers, adjusting, is, is that a good, appropriate number to sort of start off with, and then hopefully we will get the, you know, residential picking up somewhat, throughout the year? But just is, is that a good, starting point, looking at the margin projections throughout the 2024? Can you comment on that, please?

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Yeah, of course, you have also a bit of seasonality in America. So when you look on the pure organic part, yes, you can look at Q4, but you should also look at Q1 last year as a reference, because it's, you know, also a bit seasonal. And then to repeat what we said before on HHI, you should take the 8.9 and the 14.9 EBITDA as the reference to start from, and we have the ambition to grow from those numbers now in 2024.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Sounds good. Thank you.

Operator

Operator, I think we have time for one more question. For any further questions, please press star and ne on your telephone. Sir, there are no more questions at this time.

Björn Tibell
Head of Investor Relations, ASSA ABLOY

Well, excellent. Then, we have time to round up this conference today. Thank you very much for your interest and participation. If there are any more questions that you get after the conference, please feel welcome to reach out to us at Investor Relations, as always. But with that, I guess we say thank you from the three of us, and have a good day.

Nico Delvaux
President and CEO, Assa Abloy

Thank you.

Erik Pieder
EVP & CFO, ASSA ABLOY

Thank you very much.

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