Earnings Call: Q1 2024

Apr 12, 2024

Welcome to today's quarterly presentation by property company, Altriaum Jungberg, presenting the results for the Q1 of 2024. After the presentation, there will be a Q and A session. So with no further ado, let me present today's speakers, CEO, Annika Oenas and CFO, Ulrike Danielsson. Please go ahead. Thank you. The heading for this report is stable income from property management in a cautious rental market. I would like to start to summarize and highlight a few things from this report. Our property portfolio looks quite like last quarter with 80% of the value in Stockholm. The biggest segment, offices, stands for 71% of the total value and only 18% retail. Our net letting amounted to minus SEK 13,000,000 in the first quarter, including termination from our side of $8,000,000 due to upcoming projects. Our profit from property management increased by 14% and the like for like figure net operating income increased by 8%, a very good performance. We have ongoing projects with an investment of SEK 7,900,000,000 where SEK 4,600,000,000 remains to be invested. And of the projects being completed in 2024, the pre letting is 91%. As I mentioned in the beginning, we have a big focus on Stockholm both in our existing properties and in our upcoming investments. The major areas are Hagastaden, Slussen, Slaktusomrodert and Sikla, all areas where we have a subway in Stockholm or where there will be one in the future. I think we have a unique position in our locations. Even if we are at the bottom of the recession and the vacancy has come up in the Stockholm, there is still demand for good quality office space in location in Greater CBD. We see the highest demand in and Hagestaden. We still have some quality discussions with potential tenants that I hope would be settled in this quarter. We see that cost efficiency and flexibility focus among tenants, but also the trend that companies want to be in an area with a context and I think our strategy in that sense is hand in hand. Retail comprises 18% of the company's total property value and represent a large diverse range of tenants, which contributes to an important supply of service for our office tenants. We have a good performance in our retail hubs and have both higher turnover and foothold than last year. The mix in the retail hubs make them very resilient during tougher times. The Swedish condominium market has shown a big portion of uncertainty due to higher interest cost and inflation. We now think we are heading towards brighter times since the markets expect interest rate cuts. During the quarter, we have sold a few apartments and the sales rate was 74% in Uppsala and 56% in Naka in the end of Q1. As I already mentioned, net letting ended up at minus SEK 13,000,000 and where we have terminated contracts of SEK 8,000,000 due to upcoming projects. The biggest effect of termination in Q1 was Polestar leaving 3,800 square meters at Lindholmen in Gothenburg. But we also signed several new contracts during the quarter. The 3 biggest ones are all in Hagastarden, Global Connect 3,200 Square Meters, Price 1350 Square Meters and Lidstar 1,000 Square Meters. Global Connect is leasing an office space where an existing tenant will reduce their space, with an effect that we will also receive compensation from that tenant since they are leaving the contract in advance. We have a well diversified contract portfolio, where our 10 largest customer accounts for 19% of the revenue. Of this 19%, 7% is revenue from state and municipalities. The average contract period was 4.6 years and offices are our biggest source of revenue with 56%. Customer durables, the 2nd largest part, represent 15% of our total revenue. And if we look at our maturity of leases for 2024, it's only 1% left of the total annual contract value and 32% has its maturity from the year 2029 and after. And I think it's quite interesting that we only have 5 tenants over 10,000 square meters. Let's take a closer look at our retail portfolio. I know I showed you this image last quarter as well, but I think it's very important to understand the mix in our retail hubs. Somehow people tend to think that retail is only fashion, but it's not in our case. We have a wide range of supply in our retail portfolio. Fashion stands for 11% of the turnover in our retail hubs. I think we have a very attractive retail portfolio. And as I mentioned in the beginning, both footfall and turnover are higher than last year. Food, alcohol and pharmacies stands for 42% of the turnover in our retail hubs. The businesses are performing the best in our shopping centers, our pharmacy low price segment and groceries. And the ones that are struggling are electronics and home decoration and furniture. And by that I the hand over to Ulrika to comment our financial performance. Atum Junberg started the 1st quarter with a 14% growth in income from property management. This growth is mainly driven by CPI uplifts, continued good cost control, a new NOI from the project Katarina Hjusset and stable net interest. The CPI uplift combined with good cost control means that the NOI in like for like increased by 8% in Q1 compared with Q1 last year. In addition, we have one offs of $10,000,000 compared to $2,000,000 last year, as well as increased NOI in our project portfolio, where Katerina Hirsut contributes more than what we lose through the last year's emptying of Sederhallana. Overall, the company's NOI increased by 11% in the 1st quarter. Compared with the turn of the year, the economic occupancy rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points or units, of which about half is a technical explanation. Katarina Husted, in which all customers have not yet moved in, has been transferred from project to office in our reporting this quarter. And this affects all property related key ratios such as average rent, economic occupancy rate, valuation yield and portfolio mix. The other major explanation is a bigger office tenant in Gothenburg that moves out this quarter. And this can be seen in the city's occupancy rate, which is falling by 5 percentage points. Administration costs are slightly higher than Q1 last year based on what we know today. This does not mean a significantly higher cost for the full year. It is more a matter of accrual between the quarters compared to the previous year. And net interest is stable, a slightly higher average interest rate is mitigated by a lower average debt volume in the first quarter compared with a year ago. The changes in value are virtually non existent net and is divided into 2 components, yield and cash flow. If we take the first one, the yield, our view is that it has stabilized in the market for the time being. A slowdown in the inflation rate, a belief in future interest rate cuts and good access to liquidity with falling credit margins as a result, mean that buyers and sellers are moving closer to each other. However, there may still be some individual corrections in combination with the fact that there may be a certain lag between the market's development and what happens in the company's earnings and balance sheets. We have not made any general change during Q1, but instead corrected inner city properties in Stockholm upwards a few points and this results in a decrease in value of roughly 190,000,000 The second component, cash flow, is constant in motion. How it develops is more property specific depending on the type of location, tenant composition, asset class, etcetera. Changes in cash flow can lead to both rises and falls in values. The latter mainly as a result of falling rent levels and rising vacancies, which often come in, in the wake of recession. In the Q1, we had negative net lettings in our portfolio, which means negative changes in value, but to a very, very small extent. On the other hand, time has passed, which is positive in the valuation and thus we end up with a positive net figure of roughly SEK 180,000,000 linked to the cash flow. And net is SEK 7,000,000 in the P and L in the first quarter. So based on our earnings this first quarter and adjusted for dividends, we have increased our NAV per share by roughly 1 percentage. The financial risk is stable in the company with a loan to value that is almost unchanged and an ICR and net debt to EBITDA that improves slightly while the liquidity buffer remains. So all in all, a good start to the year. If we look at a like for like portfolio, we have increased revenues and falling cost, and that is a very good combination. The revenue increase of 5% is mainly connected to the CPI uplift, while the decrease in cost is due to falling electricity prices and continued good cost control in general. All segments performed well with offices winning the Q1. As you know, we have Katarina Hilset, which contributes with an NOI of EUR 70,000,000 in the first quarter. That is EUR 60,000,000 more compared to a year ago. And at the same time, you also know that we have emptied Sertralana last year, and that means that we have €7,000,000 lower in NOI compared to a year ago. On a net basis, however, there is an increase in the project portfolio, which thus contributes to the total growth in the NY, the first quarter. Ketterlin Eustat has been gradually moving in since Q2 last year based on written leases and intended occupancy. Our assessment is that the rental income for this year will amount to roughly SEK 120,000,000 in our income statement, including supplements. And that is comparable with €44,000,000 1 year ago or for 2023 as a whole. The fixed income market has continued to be volatile and may continue to be so, but there are many more glimmers of light than before. As you can see, the market forecasts and the Riksbank expect interest rate cuts going forward. Everyone is probably in agreement on that. On the other hand, there are different views on when the reductions will come and how large or small they are. Where the most aggressive forecast has a level of 250 basis points at the end of this year and the most cautious one around 3.75 basis points. And the market's pricing here is around 3 100. When it comes to excess liquidity, I said at the outset that it is good and that we are seeing declining credit margins. We feel that there is good pressure in the bond market. We have been active in the Q1 and thus felt the margin movements. Just after our Q4 report, which we released earlier this year, we issued a 3 year bond of EUR 600,000,000 dollars to a level of 150 basis points. About 3 weeks ago, we issued a 4 year bond of SEK 500,000,000 to the same price tag. And that means that we are back to spreads that were before Russia's entry into Ukraine. The CP market is also more alert. We have increased outstanding volume, which amounted to roughly €2,500,000,000 at the end of the quarter, while the price tag also has been slightly lower, 60 basis points at the end of this quarter versus 65 basis points when we released Q4 and 70 basis points at the turn of the year. So 10 basis points movements downwards during the Q1. When it comes to bank loans, we have not yet finalized any renegotiations, but we have ongoing discussions. And so far there are no indications of any major upward movements for us. Our financial position is stable with an almost unchanged LTV, while the ICR and the net debt to EBITDA are improving somewhat as a result of strong earnings. Our average interest rate moves upward slightly from 2.5% to from 2.4 to 2.5 all in, which is mainly explained by the fact that we have refinanced a cheap fixed rate bond in Q1 and increased the debt volume slightly and new money is more expensive than old ones. Our liquidity buffet amounts to roughly SEK 8,000,000,000 and of course part of this will be refinanced. But as I said earlier, we have very good dialogues with our relationship banks and at the same time the bond market has perked up. There is no doubt that access to liquidity at competitive prices is good for the company and the company needs capital given its project opportunities. Right Annika? [SPEAKER ANDREA LOUIS SERVRANCKX:] Thank you, Ulrika. So let's update you on our project portfolio. At the end of Q1, we had ongoing construction with a total investment of SEK 8,200,000,000 of which SEK 4,600,000,000 remain to be invested. Of ongoing projects, SEK 6,900,000,000 is investments in properties that are developed to own. We have had an increase of investments in our projects due to price adjustments in constructions. We have mitigated cost of that with increased rents in new lettings. In addition, we have also increased the yield requirements in our projects, as in all properties. And today we have a project of approximately 20%, corresponding to SEK 1,300,000,000 of which SEK 700,000,000 has already been reported. Furthermore, we have ongoing condominium production of NOK 1,000,000,000 with an asset market value of NOK 1,200,000,000. Euros The project profit will be realized as the projects are completed. On this image you see our 9 ongoing projects and when they will be completed. Of the projects that will be completed in 2024, we have a pre let of 91%. In the beginning of the year, we decided to start the construction of the next residential block in Nobelbajcikla. This will be the 4th block of the total of 8 and is the first that we will be constructed in wood. Interest in the residential in Nogvelberg is high and the first two blocks have been completed and the residents have moved in, in the 3rd block will be completed by this summer. Construction will now begin on the 4th block, Kulturbalbert, which will consist of 80 condominiums distributed between 3 buildings. The total area will be around 8,800 square meters with an estimated investment of approximately SEK 465,000,000 Kultur Arbet is the start of Stockholm Wood City, the world's largest wooden city, which will be built in Sikla over the next 10 years. Stockholm Wood City will consist of 250,000 square meters of wooden frame building. And in addition to residentials, we will also include offices, retail and services. And finally, a few words about the project portfolio going forward. We will develop 4 areas in Stockholm where there is a natural growth of people. The potential investment is about SEK 40,000,000,000 and all locations have a subway station today or will have one at the latest 2,030. In Sikla, we are planning to add 250,000 square meters with a total investment of SEK 14,000,000,000 In Sluktivosamroded, the Stockholm milk packing district, we are also planning for offices and apartments with a total of 200,000 square meters. The total investment is 11,000,000,000 And Hagastaden as Lusse and part of Stockholm Mini City, we have projects of more than 150,000 square meters and a total of SEK 9,000,000,000. And by that, I think we should open up for questions. Thank you so much for your presentation, Annika and Ulrika. And we will soon start off the Q and A. But first, I want to remind equity analysts on the team's call to raise their hand when they want to talk. And I'll start off. So Annika, income of property management came in higher than market expectations at plus 14%. What are your comments? Of course, I'm very happy and proud about the result that we have done this Q1. I mean, we are in the bottom of the recession, and it's tough times out there. So I'm pleased, I must say. Okay. Thank you. And with that, I would like to welcome John Wong of Kempen. Please remind you of turning on your camera and microphone, and please go ahead with your questions, John. Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. In your report, you mentioned that demand in the service sector has decreased for office space. What have you noticed compared to, say, previous quarter? You're also saying that economic recovery should stimulate a month. So to balance that, what are your expectations for the coming year? Well, when it comes to the net letting, as I'm saying in the report and also the last quarter, that the discussion with the customer takes a long time. And that's the same, I must say. And the discussions we had before Christmas, they are still ongoing, and that means that it's discussion yet or hopefully, we will sign a contract. I am hoping for the Q2 to look better, but you never know what kind of termination of the contract that will come. So we'll see what Q2 will look like. But we have a very good quality discussion ongoing, so that's the good part. Okay. That's very clear. And then turning to your project. Do you expect further starts this year? Or are you happy with your current pipeline? Well, it depends on the lettings, I might say. We have a few projects in Sluktur, Somroded, for example, that we are having discussions. And if we set the negotiation, we will also start. But it's all about the letting. Okay. That's clear. And I guess that depends also on the answer you gave to the first question. Yes. But then we also have one project in and that's Mela Terasen with the restaurants that we will start this year. Yes, it's in the list. Yes. Yes. Okay. And then just on the unchanged valuation yield, could you provide a bit more color on this? I mean, in your report, you mentioned that yield requirements have stabilized. What gives you comfort to make the statement? I mean, looking at the investment market, we haven't seen too many transactions that were debt funded. But we are rather comfortable, and we talked to a lot of the valuers also. So you can use the transactions volume based. The low transaction volume, you can have as a a motivation that nothing has happened, but we don't only take that into account. We also know that there is a lot of dialogues out in the market. And then you have the access to liquidity. You have fallen credit margins in the market here in Sweden. You also have a common view on future lower interest rates and also on inflation. Yesterday, we have the statistics that is more healthy, you could say. And all that combined gives buyers, you could say, more predictability in doing business. So buyer and seller are, business. So buyer and seller are, you could say, meeting each other much more than before. Okay. Thank you so much, John Wong at Kempen. And I'll just shoot one more question you, Annika. You we've talked a lot about the international interest of your project Wood City. And now you also have been highlighted as world leading innovative company. What can you tell us about this? Well, it is the newspaper pass company in the States that announced us to be one of the most innovative companies in the world. Of course, that's good news, I would say. And I think it's very much because of the real estate company in history is kind of conservative. And we're trying really to foresee things that we can do it differently when it comes to the sustainability part, and that's what we are doing the coming years. And I'm really looking forward to that. Yes, I believe so. Fantastic. That was all my questions for you today, and good luck going forward. Thank you very much. Thank you.