Good morning, everyone. Maria and myself here, we will try to guide you through the Q3 report and tell you something what happens during the quarter, and also small outcome of what we believe of the rest period of the year. If we start and go to slide three, we could see how we want to do it. First, I will take you through some highlights in the quarter, not so many highlights, but something has happened, and also give you some idea about the market trends. Maria will take you through the financials, and after financials, we will have some Q&A. We expect around 20 minutes for this presentation. We proceed to slide four. This is at a glance. You see a year to date on a rolling 12 months. As you can see, it's slightly below last year.
The main reason for this that is COVID-19. That was a minor impact this quarter, not at all as last quarter. We will discuss this later. Slide number five. We see the key highlights this year, and it's not so many, but I think what I want to point out that we have e-commerce is still growing very fast for us. It's the same level as last quarter, but it's much more than last year. We think here is a combination of a COVID-19 impact and also that we of course launch more and more countries on this. We strongly believe that the target we have for 2023, 12%, that we will exceed that. We will reach that target before 2023 on e-commerce sales. Also, when we talk about our computer, we have transferred now in the APAC region.
All companies in the APAC has transferred to a new cloud-based ERP system. It's fantastic. It has been very easy to do comparing to change ERP systems from upgrade from one system to another system. We more and less have used the same system we had in New Zealand. The idea here is also to start to install these kind of installations in Europe and bit by bit go more and more as common ERP system in the whole group. Unfortunately, also, we had a cyber attack in France in September that prevented us from invoicing in one week. It also took some time to repair everything. Today, it's up and running again. This cyber attack did not destroy any backups. It was impossible to invoice and run the business for one week. The impact here was around SEK 25 million in sales.
What I think I would like to mention as well is our major shareholder, Carrier, has divested 9.2 million shares in placing in the market in September. When this placing took place, it was very easy to place it. The interest to buy Beijer Ref shares was very high. That make us very confident and happy that so many was interested to buy Beijer Ref shares. As you can see, the Carrier holding today is less than 30% of equity and around 26% of the voting. If we move on to slide six, you could see this is how Q3 look like. These numbers, if you compare with the rolling 12, we think that Europe corresponds to approximately 70%, Asia-Pacific maybe 21% or 22%, and Africa 8% in a rolling 12. Okay, slide number seven. I will remind you a little about these mega trends.
We have gone through a very tough quarter in Q2. We have seen a nice recovery in Q3. We will tell you much more about Q3 later on. We have some mega trends that gives us long-term tailwind. If you look at this slide seven, I want to mention in particular right now, you see on the right the phase out scheme on refrigerants. You see that we are coming to a new breakpoint. January 1, 2021, it will go down from a load 65%, a load volume 65% of 2015 year's volume will go down to 45%. That is in practice around 28% allowed volume. You all remember what happened 2018. We don't expect the same impact on the prices on refrigerants, but I will come back to talk about refrigerants later on.
We hope or we that maybe also estimate that this price decrease that we have had for nine quarters will smoothly play out. I will talk a little more about this later on. Digitalization is also, as I mentioned before, it's increasing a lot. If you look at the growing middle class and urbanization, I think that is one of the explanation for the nice organic growth we have on the air-conditioned HVAC business that is growing close to 9% organic growth in the quarter. We have more and more efforts on our environment and ESG solutions, and we put a lot of our resources to improve and really try to come up with new green products. This is mainly in our OEM business.
If we look at slide number nine, this is a slide we never disclosed before, but we have had this question so many times, so I will try to take you through what we're showing here. You see the addressable market for refrigeration. This is an estimation for current year, 2020. You look at on the left side, you could see how much is food retail and how much is HORECA business. The reason why we want to show this is that we think that the business who maybe suffer most from COVID-19 impact is, of course, the HORECA business. That is on our addressable market, it's about one-third of the total market 2020. If you look, I will also remind you about this is 60% of our business we have, this is refrigeration business. It's refrigeration, including the OEM business.
If you look on the right side here, in the source of demand, you could see also that maintenance and repairs is still 20 big part. System upgrades to new installations is not so big, replacement and retrofits not so big. When you look at this, what's going on with the phase out, our estimation is that the green, if you look on the right side, the green and the gray field will grow bigger the coming years due to the F-gas regulation. All right, if we try to do a next slide nine, to give you a guideline also on the addressable market for HVAC, how it looks, these numbers we have from last year.
If you look here on the left side, you could see that single split, this is the small units you can have in a residential living, mainly or in a small shop with normally one outdoor unit or one indoor unit, or maybe two or three indoor units. This is our main business here in the addressable market. You could see that the blue field is the biggest in this business. It's also, when you see the number of the market, I want to mention for you that if you look at the full addressable market for us on HVAC, it's around EUR 7.5 billion in size. We are addressing the market in two different channels. We have it through our distribution business, for us, it's around 50% of HVAC business.
Remember, the HVAC business is around 40+ of total business. Half of it is through our distribution. Here we believe our addressable market is around EUR 3.6 billion. The other half we address is also when we go more direct, it is especially for Toshiba business, it's EUR 7.5 billion. You could also see here that the commercial one is big both in product type and construction sector. All right, also remember, if I go back just to slide nine, this business increased 8.5% organic in Q3 for us this year. Coming back to give you an idea about the development of the refrigerants. As you can see on this, first of all, I will tell you, this is now from purchase pricing. We normally measure it on both purchase and selling prices.
Due to this cyber attack we had in France, we're not able to make the selling prices. We can't really analyze it yet. It will come up sooner. If you look at this slide, the bulk price will look quite similar, the different curves. You could see here on the blue chart, the traditional refrigerant, the phase out refrigerant, that the price has gone down long time, I would say nine quarter in a row, we have been struggling with declining prices here. You could see that the curve phase out. Next Q4 2020, you will compare with the level Q4 2019, and you will see the difference will not be so high as it has been the last time.
Having that said, we still believe that we will suffer from declining prices due to the fact that the comparison price one year ago is still on a higher level, but we will not suffer so much as we have done the last nine quarters. If we continue to slide number 11, I will just try to take you through the impact here in the result. You can see we had SEK 245 million in decreased sales, and that is just below 3%. If you look where of refrigerants and where of currency, you can see that is more than SEK 300 million that has impacted for us in a negative way. When you see where of COVID-19 and other, there is a plus, and this is due to the increase we have in HVAC.
If we take what has impacted negative and these ones, we will say that a rough estimate is what we have around SEK 50 million in top-line sales is COVID-19, another SEK 25 million is due to the cyber attack we had in France in September. We mentioned something about the savings, and this was for us a positive number that we had SEK 80 million in realized savings in Q3. Remember, in subsidies, it's total SEK 50 million, but in Q3, it was only SEK 5 million. Out of these savings, SEK 80 million, it's only SEK 5 million that is subsidies from government. How much we will have in the future, how much is temporary? We don't really know, but we think it should be a mix about 50/50. We have to wait another quarter to show how much is temporary.
This saving, which has impacted the P&L is for us also positive here. Of the savings, I would say around SEK 50 million is personal costs. All right, slide 12. Also to give you an idea of Q3, as I also wrote in my statement in the Q3 report, July 2019 was a huge heatwave in Europe and the comparison month is the best ever month for Beijer Ref, and it was a very tough comparison number. If you go and look, we had a growth in August and September. Also remember here we had the cyber attacks. We had organic growth both in August and September, and July was very tough comparison. This is the speed we just now are in and what we talk about a little about the future later on. If we take slide number 13.
Before I will let Maria take you through the financials more in detail, I will just tell you this is our future focus areas, and this is what we really are working with. Just to mention about acquisitions, we have for the moment opportunities. If it will be a deal or not, this is we don't know because it's always you have to agree with the seller. Due to the COVID-19, we think opportunities have come up to our visibility and also to negotiations. We hope and we are cautious optimistic that we can do an acquisition in Q4 or Q1. Okay, Maria, I hand over to you now, slide number 15.
As Per mentioned, we had a sales decrease of 2.9%, and that consists of a positive acquisition impact of 3.3%. We also had some negative currency impact of 4.5% and an organic growth of -1.7%. Remarkable though, it's important to say that HVAC really had an organic increase of 9%. As Per mentioned, we also have the cyber attack and also lower prices on refrigerants. That is the main drivers to the sales decrease in Q3. Operating profit, we had 4.5% in change and considering the cyber attack, we would have been more on par with last year. The margin is 8.9% versus 9.1% last year. Adding the cost for the cyber attack, we would have been on par on the ROF. Q2 and Q3 are our strongest quarter when it came both to sales and the EBIT creation. Equity ratio is also high, 38%.
As you can read in the report, there will be no additional dividend during 2020. If we look into a little bit more about the organic sales growth, we can see that HVAC is really increasing here. Now it's 44%. Last year, it was 38%, which is a high increase, and commercial refrigeration has gone from 52% to 47%. We can see that HVAC is really growing here. OEM that varies between 9% to 10%. If you look into the organic growth to the right on page 16, you can see that the 1.7%, you can also see that the HVAC has grown with 9%. OEM 5% and also the commercial refrigeration with -9%. It's important to say that about 6% units here is related to refrigerants. You also have that in our Q3 report.
If you look into five three quarters in a row, you can see what I said, that Q3 is a strong both sales and EBIT creation quarter. Rolling 12 shows sales of about SEK 14 billion and EBIT about SEK 975. Of course, we will have a hit of the COVID-19 here, and what we lost during Q2 is still there. For the remaining part, we are trading according to last year. If you look into the segment that we have on page 18, you can see our home market is the Nordics. It's only 11% of our sales, but very profitable. That is due to that the Nordics are pretty much ahead of technology. Also we have a strong market position here, enables us to have a high EBIT margin.
Central Europe and Southern Europe is also a big market for us, and they are also very profitable, despite also the cyber attack that we have said before. Eastern Europe is our smallest region and with good margins, but with a sales decrease this quarter. It's pretty sensitive to changes in the macroeconomic, I would say. Africa tends to be about 8%-10%, but is now only 6% in this quarter, and that is all related to currency. Otherwise, they would have been on par with last year. The APAC varies between 16%-20% of our total business, and as you know, we have a lower EBIT margin in this region. We have also efforts in place to increase the margin.
We are right now planning to move to one location, and we also have some other synergies coming out from also the ERP implementation, as Per mentioned in the beginning of this call. Looking into sales bridge on page 19, you can see what I just mentioned here, that of course, we have a hit that goes for all regions, and Africa being the biggest part due to currency and also APAC. They are green here because they have the acquisition from ACD that we actually performed before the COVID-19 this year. Handing over to page 20 one could see that the EBIT bridge, it follows the same pattern here. We have a drop in EBIT in the Nordics, mainly related to refrigerants and in the Southern Europe, eight out of the 13 is related to the cyber attack.
A positive thing here with the cash flow is that we have been able to manage the cash flow pretty well during COVID-19, and we took some actions during Q2 in the beginning of the quarter, and that has really paid off. When looking into the cash flow, we had a positive cash flow of SEK 455 versus SEK 583 last year. I think you should look into both Q2 and Q3 to see an average here, because we had some positive cash flow already in Q2. Normally, we tie up capital in the first half and release during the second half. Okay, looking into the liability side, we were able to do a refinancing during Q3 and during the COVID-19. We have now spread out the maturity structure of our limits.
We have the same limits in place, meaning that we have about 1.5 billion SEK in utilized headroom, that is for future acquisition. You can also see that the net debt is all-time low, which is positive in this regard. We are able to increase the net debt ratio to be above the 1.6 that you can see here now. All in all, pretty good cash flow managed through the COVID-19 situation.
Yes. On page 22, it's a pity to show you that we had a negative growth also in Q3. I want to mention it was despite we have a COVID, we think we have a COVID impact around SEK 50 million. The cyber attack was SEK 25 million, and we had also one less trading day in France, but it gives another SEK 75 million-SEK 100 million if we should make these adjustments. We also remember we had the toughest comparison quarter ever, at least in July, the toughest comparison month ever for us. When you take all into consideration, we can think that we have had some issues in Q3 that we probably have overcome. With these adjustments, we have had an organic growth.
Also remember the big impact from the decline in prices in refrigerant that we have been suffering for nine quarters in a row now. We go proceed to page 23. I showed this slide before, this is also to give you an idea. During the IT crisis and during the financial crisis, we were able to do acquisition that was very successful for us. We really hope that we can do it again. There are opportunities for us. We have That's for us. Thank you. Questions?
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please dial zero one on your telephone keypads now to enter the queue. Once your name's announced, you can ask your question. If you find it's answered before it's your turn to speak, you can dial zero two to cancel. Once again, that's zero one to ask a question or zero two if you need to cancel. We've got a few questions in the queue so far. The first is from the line of Carl Ragnerstam of Nordea. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Good morning. It's Carl here from Nordea. I have two questions. It is regarding the monthly organic growth, which you visualized in previous slides. I might have missed it, what I see is that since September had slightly lower organic growth compared with August. Would you say that it is a function of the fact that you sort of had pent up demand that was already delivered or that it was due to basically the cyberattack?
I would say it was basically due to the cyberattack. We think the impact was around SEK 25 million on the top line in September.
Okay, perfect. Do you still see pent up demand for AC products or is it sort of normalized now or what do you see?
What do you mean with normalized? Do you mean normalized with its underlying organic growth? We think that October has started on more or less in the same level as the quarter ended. Then you can adjust for the cyberattack.
Okay, perfect. Also, you saw flattening declines in refrigerant prices. I guess you refer to year-over-year because if we look sequentially, it looks like the decline is actually accelerating.
Yes, that's correct. If you want to compare quarter by quarter with year to year, they are not on the same level as they were one year ago, even if the price will start to increase. We have not seen that yet but it's flattening, as you said. We don't think that we'll suffer so much. You could also see the impact on the top line. I will have a slide for that. We are cautious optimists that the worst for us in terms of declining prices is over but probably still a negative impact next quarter.
Could you probably try to quantify the prices? What you see currently in October, is it down 10% year-over-year or are we looking more than 10%?
Yeah, I think it's 3% in the quarter or something like that. You have the slide. If you look at this one, you can make your own calculations.
Yeah. So far in October, what can you see in terms of decline in refrigerant prices? Are they down 10% year-over-year or?
No, it's on the same level as at the end of Q3. We have not seen any decline in prices in October yet.
Okay, perfect. All for me. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andreas Borg at Cowley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. Just two questions for the management, please. One is the OEM business. Could you talk a bit more about that and how that has been affected by COVID-19? Also about the ramp up in the OEM business, how is that going? Has that been affected? Are you basically at full capacity right now or you need that capacity expansion? My second question is on the cyberattack. Could you say something more what kind of cyberattack and what has that meant for you overall when it comes to IT security for the firm? Thank you so much.
I will take you try to give you about the OEM question. OEM is the business where we have a backlog and we have an order intake and we have a lead time. When all markets were almost closed down in Q2, the order intake went down quite dramatically. That decreasing order intake, that is the impact you could see in invoicing in Q3. That is the reason why we have a negative sales on OEM business. During Q3, we have seen that the order intake has increased again, and I think we had, actually in September, all-time high in Italy, for example, when we do our green refrigeration units. We are very confident that this will go on.
It has to go on due to F-gas regulation. We have also a lot of ideas and wait for a new factory that we hopefully will start producing the beginning of next year. Q1 is the target to start production in that factory. Was that answer on the OEM question?
Yes, exactly. Now I understand more with the order backlog. Conceptually, with the stimulus programs in Europe and the focus on ESG, that business is really well-positioned. I'm happy that the expansion goes online in Q1, because I think it will be needed. That's excellent. On cybersecurity, can you say a bit more, without telling the whole world exactly how your IT systems work? A bit more about the cyber attack and are you spending more money now on cybersecurity, et cetera?
I think that goes for the entire group that IT security is crucial for us, and we are also strengthening the control over our systems. That goes both for getting into the systems, and also to have procedures in place for restoring backups, and also to do dry runs on how to restore the backups, and also to work with password management to make it harder for these kind of attacks. I think the cyber attack in France gave us some lessons learned, and we implement that also in the entire group and focus a lot on that. We have continuous webinars with our finance managers, and one of the topics here at the last call was IT security on an overall level. As a parent company, we have done the same exercise with our providers.
Excellent, thank you. Then final question. In Africa, you said basically the EBIT model was hit because of the FX exposure. Is that because you're importing, and there is this lag with buying and selling? Why is FX so important for the Africa business on the margin?
Okay. Yeah, our biggest currency is per se Euro, of course, and there we have, of course, exposure to the sales. We also have costs in Europe, so that is the best hedging, I would say. For Africa, it's more isolated, and they have got a hit on their currency this quarter, so that's why.
Fair enough. Thank you so much. Excellent. Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if there are any further questions, please dial 01 on your telephone keypads now. We've had one further question come through. That's from the line of Anders Gustafsson at SEB. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yeah, good morning, and thank you for taking the time. Could you talk a little bit about 2021 in terms of if you get more normalized growth, how should we think about cash flow and how much capital will you be tying up in working capital? Also in terms of CapEx, how is that looking in terms of planning by now, please?
Well, first of all, normally, CapEx is a quite low number for us.
Yeah.
We don't have so much machinery in factories, et cetera. CapEx is not a big investment cost for us. In terms of working capital, of course, if the market increases, we need to also have more working capital. We have done a lot of efforts to reduce it, as we have done this year. We think that that will more follow an expected growth on revenues that we need to have a little more in inventory, mainly in inventory. I think you can expect that it will increase, but if you take a return on operating capital, of course the target is that it will increase.
As a rule of thumb, if you were to grow SEK 500 million or SEK 1 billion in terms of revenue next year, how much would that tie up in working capital, you think?
That would tie up about 30% of the sales increase.
Okay. Perfect.
Also as Per mentioned, normally CapEx, we are not so capital intensive. CapEx normalized to be equal to depreciation. Then, of course, we have the IFRS, our rental contract. That could vary, but that is not cash flow in that regard.
Yeah. Perfect. Thank you very much.
Thank you. As there are no further questions at this time, I'll hand back to our speakers for the closing comments.
Sure.
Thank you.
Okay. Thank you very much for Maria and me. Hope to see you soon.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
Thank you. Bye.