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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Jan 28, 2022

Operator

Thank you for joining us on our conference call today to review BHG's fourth quarter 2021 results. This call is being recorded and the replay of the conference will be available later today on our investor relations website. Today, together with me today are Adam Schatz, President and CEO, and Jesper Flemme, Group CFO. Both will be available for Q&A later in today's call. With that said, I now turn the call over to Adam.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. If we move to slide two, please. We grew in the quarter despite our own high comparative figures from Q4 of last year and despite the weak overall markets. The BHG recipe, combining organic initiatives with M&A and unlocking synergies, was thus once again in display. With especially strong performance in mainland Europe and with Germany now having made top three amongst our largest geographies, our progress towards becoming the undisputed European online leader within home improvement continues. Slide three, please. I'll start this morning's presentation by reviewing the Q4 highlights. I will then move on to the business update. Jesper will then cover the financial update before I conclude and we launch into the Q&A session. Slide four, please. On to slide five, please, for the Q4 highlights.

In a weak overall market and despite tough comps, net sales from the quarter reached 3.5 billion SEK, up 48% corresponding to pro forma organic growth of 9% and organic growth of 2%. Adjusted EBIT amounted to SEK 186 million, corresponding to an adjusted EBIT margin of 5.3%. Cash flow from operating activities at SEK -247 million continued to be affected by the disruptions to the global supply chain, which among other things, have led us to accept higher inventory levels for now, as we have previously communicated and as we will get back to in the financial section. The environment in the quarter was similar to that of Q3, with consumer spend on services having normalized to pre-pandemic levels, while supply disruptions continued to be in play.

However, our performance in the quarter as well as over the longer term provides confirmation that we continued gaining market shares, more on which shortly. Slide six, please. Zooming in on organic and pro forma organic growth, we did well in the quarter given our high comparable figures and the decline in the overall market. Organic growth amounted to 2%. This against the Q4 of 2020, which saw organic growth of 36%. Like for like on a pro forma basis, our units grew by 9%. In other words, a similar level as in the previous quarter. Slide seven, please. Now, taking a broader perspective on growth to the left, the group's net sales is up by well over 100% compared to the pre-pandemic level, the period over which pro forma organic growth has increased by 25% per annum.

Turning to the middle of the slide, the group's share of net sales from outside of the Nordics has increased by eight percentage points, and Germany became our third largest geography in the quarter. Over to the right, our growth in the quarter, just as our growth over the past two years, shows that we continue to strengthen our position. The total home improvement market is larger than in pre-pandemic times, although it did contract somewhat in the quarter from its pandemic peak of last year. However, the growth trajectory of our underlying markets remains intact. We reaffirm that we believe our markets will grow by around 15% per annum over a business cycle. Although a higher base for online penetration has been established, penetration remains low and is sure to continue expanding. Slide eight, please. For a quick reminder on our total addressable market opportunity.

We estimate that the total Nordic market, offline and online, is worth some SEK 300 billion per annum. A large market indeed, however, eclipsed by the orders of magnitude larger European one. This is the backdrop against which we revised our medium-term financial targets in the first half of last year, including that we're going for SEK 20 billion net sales on the next leg of our journey. A temporarily weaker market offers a leader like BHG opportunities to further strengthen our position and extend our lead, including by continuing our still nascent foray into mainland Europe. Slide nine, please. Moving to the business update. Slide 10, please. Our recipe combines organic initiatives and M&A with the synergy possibilities created between the two. Our organic strategy remains focused on our four cornerstones of assortment, scale and own brands, an unrivaled digital experience, and supporting infrastructure.

In addition to benefiting from the secular trend of rising online penetration, we continue adding product categories and we continue adding geographies. We're also further industrializing our approach to M&A. We have the organizational capabilities and we have the proven track record. We also have the deal flow, as we will see shortly. Our markets are still fragmented. This is true for the Nordics, but also outside, perhaps to an even greater extent to the European continent. We continue refining our post-merger integration playbook. We've fine-tuned how we go about integrating the bolt-ons onto our platforms and the model for how the group ensures that we leverage the assortment, delivery infrastructure, and data and automation across our units. Moving to slide 11, please. A quick update on organic initiatives along these headings, i.e.

assortment, delivery, and data and automation. We continued to expand our assortment in the quarter in support of our mission, we make living easy. A growing number of units are now operating in our proprietary system for automated product data exchange. We are grouping our units to reduce complexity, including consolidating a number of our own brands into the newly acquired Hafa Bathroom Group . We are making significant investments into delivery within the DIY segment. These include bolstering our drop shipping capabilities to meet rising customer expectations. Within the home furnishing segment, these are focused on consolidating warehousing infrastructure and expanding our showroom and last mile delivery footprint. On the data and automation side, we're well underway with automating parts of our warehousing infrastructure and upgrading our customer data platform, more on which shortly. Turning to slide 12 for an ESG update.

The process of integrating ESG into our strategy is well underway. ESG is a broad area, as you well know, and our priorities are guided by the materiality analysis we concluded a little while back and include the areas shown in this slide. More specifically, the past quarter saw us updating our code of conduct as well as the code of conduct for our suppliers. We're now at the point of defining our sustainability targets and intend to include these in our 2021 sustainability report due out in the week of April fourth. Furthermore, we will report in accordance with the EU taxonomy. Turning to slide 13 for a quick update on M&A. Acquisitions remain an important tool going forward, and 2021 became the busiest M&A year for us to date. We evaluated more than 100 opportunities, and we added six new stores to the BHG galaxy.

We firmly established ourselves as the most relevant acquirer in our field, a position we have previously attained in the Nordics, but which we have now also established in mainland Europe, despite deciding not to follow through on a couple of potential acquisitions in the quarter due to sellers' valuation expectations not adequately reflecting the prevailing market circumstances. The 2022 M&A outlook is promising. In addition to having further defined the Nordic M&A map, its mainland European equivalent is also taking clear shape. Before turning to our customer metrics, first, a few remarks on digital marketing. Slide 14, please. Our marketing approach differs from a majority of our peers, and we're further developing it. On the top left-hand side, the e-commerce approach of many online players has long been grounded in leveraging cookie-based personal data to optimize marketing.

With regulatory changes and the ramping up of privacy-first initiatives by firms such as Apple and Google, this approach is becoming increasingly fraught with challenges, not least since many actors do not leverage non-personal data to optimize their approach to customers and assortments. Bottom left, BHG's success and marketing efficiency, by contrast, has not revolved around cookie-based personal data, but rather customer cohort-based data, as well as search volume data, both to optimize how our workshops are structured and the richness we apply to aspects such as landing pages and editorial content. Similarly, our assortment expansion has always been data-driven, allowing us to avoid making bets and improving our SEO rankings.

Over to the right-hand side, since a little while back, we have in earnest begun to complement our marketing model with investments into our customer data platform or CDP, taking with us the elements that have served us well to date and adding the CDP layer on top. The depiction you see on the right-hand side is inspired by Google's take on the customer journey, which we in principle agree with and have modified to suit our purposes. We are taking the concept to make shopping easy to the next level by incorporating every step in the customer journey into our CDP setup. This will further improve our search rankings and so drive organic traffic. It will also be empowered by consent-based personal data, increasing the quality of paid traffic, reducing search costs, and allowing tailor-made personalized offerings.

As we write in the report, the first launch of our CDP is imminent, and we will then dock additional BHG businesses onto it. In addition to perfecting the unit-by-unit approach to the customer journey, the BHG CDP will also enable leveraging insights between our units and so drive customer lifetime value and brand awareness. Turning to slide 15 for customer developments. Traffic generation conditions resembled what we saw in the third quarter and were clearly more challenging than in the preceding year. Despite this, our customer base continued to grow and our customer metrics held up well. As you can see to the left on this slide, the number of active customers defined as customers who have made at least one purchase in the past 12 months surpassed the four million mark, an increase of 15%.

We succeeded in maintaining the number of orders per customer as well as the marketing ROI at the same level as in the previous quarter, while the share of net sales from repeat customers edged up to close to 50%. Our investment into gaining further insights from customer-related data across the group continue, as we just discussed. More generally, driving BHG towards a higher level of customer centricity remains a key focus area for group management. Slide 16, please. Summarizing, this is BHG today at a glance. On the left-hand side, our CAGR since 2014 exceeds 40%. In this period, EBIT has grown by more than 100% per annum. Our EBIT margin on an LTM basis stands at 6.4% and is generated by our over 100 customer-facing web properties.

Now moving over to the right-hand side, these web shops have been visited over 400 million times in the past 12 months, generating over five million orders from customers in 24 countries. Finally, our leading product portfolio comprises from 1.5 million SKUs. Slide 17, please. I'm handing it over to Jesper, who will walk us through the financial update. Slide 18, please.

Jesper Flemme
Group CFO, BHG

Thank you, Adam. As we now put the fourth quarter behind us, we can conclude that we continue to strengthen our market position despite the overall market contracting and high comps. As Adam mentioned, net sales increased 48.1% to reach almost SEK 3.5 billion. Pro forma organic growth reached 9.3%, and organic growth reached 1.8%. The general market scenario from the third quarter continued in the fourth with bottlenecks and price increases along the supply chain and fiercer competition for customers, which among other things resulted in higher costs for online marketing compared with the year earlier period. Despite this, both our segments grew organically in the period, which means that the Home Furnishing segment turned around the negative organic growth from the preceding quarter.

Adjusted EBIT amounted to SEK 186 million, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 5.3%. Let us now turn to slide 19 and a closer look at our EBIT margin compared to last year’s. Comparing our EBIT margin in the quarter to last year, we can conclude that the Q4 2020 EBIT margin of 8.2% is a tough comparison as it was favorably affected by COVID-related market factors. Our product margin amounted to 39.5% in the quarter, 0.8 percentage points higher than last year. The negative impact from increases in supplier prices and freight rates was mitigated by significant price increases and mix improvements. Fulfillment costs increased in the quarter compared to last year, driven by supply disruptions, longer lead times, and our decision to accept higher inventory levels for now to ensure product availability.

Marketing costs increased in the quarter, driven by a higher share of sales from own brands, high growth in new geographies, and a generally tougher traffic generation environment with a higher cost per click. The increase in organizational costs should be seen in the light of under-resourcing in previous periods and continued long-term investment to drive customer centricity, as well as a higher share of own brands. Finally, the increase in depreciation and amortization was primarily driven by continued tech investments. All in all, our EBIT margin amounted to 5.3% in the fourth quarter. Let us now have a closer look at the drivers of SG&A in the quarter, slide 20, please.

Comparing SG&A in Q4 this year with the same period last year, it's fair to say that Q4 2020 is a tough starting point as it was boosted by extraordinary demand, temporary under-investment, and subdued CPCs. Starting by looking at the organizational cost part of SG&A, as we reported a year ago, both segments struggled to catch up with high demand during the first year of the pandemic, and especially the DIY segment was under-invested. This has been rectified and customer satisfaction not only restored, but elevated. We have continued investment in assortment, delivery, and data and automation. The continued expansion of own brands in DIY requires somewhat higher SG&A. Finally, scale effects are visible in both segments, and especially so in the Home Furnishing segment.

Turning to the marketing part of SG&A, our higher share of brands in DIY requires a higher cost of sale than for well-known external brands. We have experienced high growth in new geographies with higher cost per click than the Nordics. Finally, just as in Q3, we have faced a tougher traffic generation environment with elevated CPCs as a result. Let us turn to cash flow, slide 21, please. Cash flow from operating activities amounted to -SEK 247 million and was mainly impacted by the buildup of inventories to ensure high product availability to counter the disruptions in the global supply chain. I will get back to inventory buildup on next slide.

The right-hand graph showing the development in liquidity walks us through the starting period position of SEK 299 million, deducting the cash flow from operations and the impact of investing activities, a majority of which is M&A related. Finally, the financing activities, which are primarily related to the share issues completed in Q1 and the refinancing completed in Q2, but also include amortization of leasing liabilities, bringing us to the period end SEK 274 million of liquidity at hand. Slide 22, please. The full year 2021 cash flow was negatively impacted by SEK 1 billion from changes in working capital. About SEK 880 million of this was driven by increases in inventory. Roughly one third of the inventory i ncrease was driven by business growth and M&A, as well as mixed effects from higher share of own brands.

Another third was driven by various ripple effects from supply chain disruption, such as late arrival of season products, longer lead times, and higher freight costs. Also, as a consequence of the disruptions in the supply chain, we have accepted a higher safety stock, and this increase accounts for the last third of the inventory buildup. Our current stock levels makes us well-positioned for having a high availability going into high season, and we expect strong cash flow in 2022. Slide 23, please. The group's net debt amounted to SEK 2.251 million at the end of the year, and net debt in relation to LTM adjusted EBITDA ended at 2.3 times within the medium-term financial target range. Our financial position is strong.

On top of our liquidity at hand, we had unutilized credit facilities at the end of the quarter of SEK 800 million, which means that we can continue to execute both organic and inorganic growth initiatives. Handing it back over to you, Adam, to summarize and conclude.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Thank you, Jesper. On slide 24 and turning to slide 25, please. Summarizing the quarter. On the back of combining organic initiatives with M&A, our growth journey continued, and full year 2021 net sales amounted to SEK 12.7 billion. While facing tough comps, we continued to strengthen our Nordic position, and we took decisive steps on the European continent, as evidenced by Germany now being our third largest geography. Supply disruptions and demand complications were similar to what we saw in the third quarter. Although the environment in the next quarter is likely to continue to be complicated, we see that our mitigating actions are having desired effects, and we believe that peak complications may be behind us. A host of organic initiatives which sort under the headings assortment, delivery, and data and automation are in advanced motion, as we discussed, just now.

2021 was a record M&A year for us. Although we did not conclude any acquisitions in the fourth quarter, the M&A outlook is strong. We updated our financial targets at the start of the year, and we're progressing well towards reaching these with 2021 pro forma sales now at SEK 14 billion . Finally, we continue our quest to create the undisputed European online home improvement platform. Moving to slide 26. The past couple of quarters have made for a more difficult operating environment than we have seen in a while. With full year 2021 now behind us, I believe it's worthwhile to take stock of what we have achieved since going public back in March of 2018. When we were at SEK 5 billion , we said that we would double in size and improve profitability, and we have.

We've grown by more than 35% annually, and we've surpassed the SEK 10 billion mark by margin. Our EBIT has increased more than fourfold. Finally, while strengthening our Nordic position, we have also increased our share of net sales from outside the Nordics from 2% to 14% over this period. Slide 27, please. Turning to the future. Here and now, we're investing to advance our positions. Organic and acquisition-driven growth, not least in continental Europe, remains the focus. A temporarily weaker market provides an excellent opportunity for a leading player to strengthen its position. In a medium-term perspective, we will have achieved and surpassed our financial targets, including attaining SEK 20 billion in sales. At the same time, we will have significantly enhanced our ability to serve our customers in the best possible way.

In the long term, on the back of our current investments into assortment, delivery, and data and automation, BHG will have fully emerged as the leading online player in Europe in home improvement with the broadest customer platform in the market. Turning to slide 28. This concludes our presentation, and we'll now open up the call for questions. Over to you, operator.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, you may do so by pressing zero two to cancel. There will be a brief pause while questions are being registered. The first question is coming from Johan Brown at ABG. Your line is now open.

Johan Brown
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Thank you, operator. Hi, guys. A few questions from me. First of all, on the price hikes you're mentioning in the report. Is it possible to say on average how much you've raised prices during the quarter? Then, just a brief comment on the price levels in 2022 in terms of expectations from your side.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Good morning, Johan. We're actually not quantifying the price rises. As you know, our business spans over such a broad product range, so, you know, an average isn't necessarily all that meaningful. I can say that it's been clearly most presently felt in the home furnishing segment. I would say that overall the dynamic has played out much as we thought it would and said it would when we presented our Q3 report. Some of the price rises have had effect now, but we also believe that there will be continued price rises from our competitors into this year. We've also seen some revisions especially for the list-based operators that have come into effect early this year.

The picture is clearest on the home furnishings side, I think also as evidenced in the performance of the home furnishings segment in the quarter.

Johan Brown
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Yeah, that's clear. Thank you. A question on the working capital and the inventory levels here, which is obviously we're not in a normalized scenario here, but I'm just trying to figure out given the M&A you've done during the year with different seasonality effects and the likes. If you would describe the inventory buildup and release throughout the four quarters of a year in a normalized scenario, which quarters would be a inventory buildup quarter and which one would be an inventory release, so to say?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

The major release will happen in Q2 and Q3. That's the old seasonality of BHG, which is still very much relevant. With the addition of our premium furnishing segment with Nordic Nest and the Svenssons brand, we also have quite strong typical release nowadays in the weeks around Black Week and the Christmas period. That's sort of a new addition to our seasonality. Still, you know, the old dynamic of Q2, Q3 being the strongest quarters is very much relevant.

Johan Brown
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Thank you very much. Just a clarification question on the outlook statement you gave in the report, as a last question here. Just so I understand the wording correctly, is it correct to say that you're growing in January in order intake organically more than 6%?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Yes, that's correct.

Johan Brown
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Wonderful. Those were all of my questions. Thank you very much.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Thank you.

Operator

The next question will come from Gustav Hagéus at SEB. Your line is now open.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Thank you. Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Good morning, Gustaf.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Good morning. First, I'm curious about the big discrepancy in organic growth and pro forma growth. I assume most of it relates to Nordic Nest. If you could confirm that, and also if you could let us in a little bit under the hood, what's driving that exceptional growth, if it's a function of comps or geographical expansion or something else, that'd be helpful.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Sure. You're right. I also want to highlight that not only Nordic Nest itself, but also Svenssons i Lammhult , which is now operated as part of the Nordic Nest group with the Nordic Nest management running both these great brands. Both those our premium addition to the group have had a very strong development in Q4. That's correctly spotted. Also when it comes to the Nordic Nest brand, as opposed to the Svenssons brand, which is still a Swedish brand, it has had very nice growth outside of the Nordics, not least in Germany. That is greatly contributing to the development that I briefly referenced in one of the slides with Germany having made top three as a BHG geography.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

When thinking about Nordic Nest and their comps, is this something that could continue to support throughout the year, you think, or are comps catching up with, but also with Nordic Nest into 2022?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Nordic Nest is a very, very strong business, strong brand, strong team. We definitely expect that the development will continue. Of course, you're quite right that the business has grown tremendously and comps in 2022 will be tougher than they were in 2021. Our belief and our intention is to continue growing that business nicely.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Okay. Then I'm curious about sort of the margin progression, how one should think on a quarterly basis for 2022. If we could go through a little bit how you see the organizational build-up that you referenced, whether or not they will flatten out or continue to build, where you see opportunities to invest. Marketing costs also, if they stay around here on cost per click, when will they sort of be flat this year- over- year? That'd be helpful. Also the seasonal pattern that has, I think, increased through your German acquisition. Thanks.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

As you will recall, Gustaf, we had a very strong growth into Q1 of 2021. We will face, just as we've done now in Q3 and Q4, pretty high comparable numbers also in Q1 of this year. When we turn to the CPC, the picture was actually quite dramatically different in the first quarter of 2021. They were still favorable. Then there was a pretty rapid, actually a very rapid shift, and they became much tougher as of Q2 of 2021. I guess that probably answers most elements of your question, but please remind me if I missed anything there.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Yeah. Also, how you think about sort of investments in personnel and so forth, that has been a little bit of a catch-up, I guess. Where is that from a quarterly by quarterly basis? When do you think that should start to take on a more normalized growth?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

I think we've seen the biggest impact already now with what we reported in Q3 and Q4. We did quite clearly state in our Q4 2020 earnings release that the results, especially in the DIY segment, were significantly boosted by the pandemic highs of the first year of the pandemic. We did invest to catch up. We're also on this longer term quest of ensuring that we are fully customer-centric. Much of those investments now in terms of catch-up are already here. From here on, of course, as we continue growing, we will continue investing. Again, the catch-up is behind us to a large extent.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

A few more, if I may. AH Trading, they have a-

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Yep

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

... seasonal pattern, right? They were loss-making in Q4 or and what was that?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Correct. No, that's right.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

What was that impact to margins, and how do you think? Does that suggest that Q4 is now a little bit? Is that big enough to make Q4 a little bit weaker of a quarter in terms of margins for you as a group?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Yeah. Absolutely, it does impact. You know, we're not calling it out separately here. So I think that says something about the magnitude of the impact. Yes, there is an impact. You're absolutely right that the AH Trading assortment, for now at least, is still focused on the outdoor months. It's outdoor furniture and accessories. So in terms of modeling into this year, we believe that we will have excellent results in Q2 and Q3. Q1 will probably be an improvement on Q4, but not a massive improvement.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

In terms of margins or in absolute terms? Yeah. Okay. Lastly, could you remind us on sort of the scheduled payouts now for earn-outs? With that in mind and your leverage, what you consider to be your firepower in 2022 on M&A?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Sure. I'll hand that question over to Jesper.

Jesper Flemme
Group CFO, BHG

Yes. The total amount on our balance sheet is SEK 2.1 billion, and just shy of SEK 250 million will be paid out in 2022. In 2023, roughly SEK 1 billion will be paid out if the companies accomplishes their targets for sure. The rest of the amount will be paid out during two, three coming years.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Was it SEK 250 million in 2022, Jesper? Sorry, I didn't catch you there.

Jesper Flemme
Group CFO, BHG

Yes. Yes.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Firepower then, what do you consider your firepower to be?

Jesper Flemme
Group CFO, BHG

We have unutilized facilities of SEK 800 million, and we have SEK 300 million cash at hand. Then as we said, we expect 2022 to be a good cash flow year given the inventory level that we have right now.

Gustav Hagéus
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Yeah. Makes sense. Okay. Those were all my questions. Thank you, guys. Good luck now.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Thanks.

Jesper Flemme
Group CFO, BHG

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from Daniel Schmidt at Danske Bank. Your line is now open.

Daniel Schmidt
Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Yes. Good morning, Otto and Jesper. Do you hear me?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Yep. Good morning, Daniel.

Daniel Schmidt
Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Morning. Sorry, I missed the early part of this call, so maybe you've answered this already. My apologies in that case. The price increases that you are making, even though you don't quantify how big they are, is it your assessment that they are now much, much more sort of compensating for the cost inflation that you're seeing, or is it halfway through, or how should we view this, or how should we model that?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Well, as I did mention, I don't know if you caught that or if you joined after we briefly touched on this, but the impact is seen in the home furnishing segment primarily. If we take the group perspective, as one of the bridges in the earnings call deck also shows, our product margins are holding up well, and we're almost at 40% in terms of product margins. The home furnishing segment is significantly above that. Most of the impact has been on the home furnishing side. With that said, we believe that there's still runway for further increases. Of course, we operate in a competitive market, and our ability to increase prices to some extent is linked to what competitors do.

I'm sure that you've seen announcements from some players out there, such as, for instance, IKEA, about global price rises that have actually now come into effect. That's a similar picture from some of our other competitors. I wouldn't say that prices have fully adjusted for the higher cost levels, but they are on the way to adjusting within the home furnishing segment.

Daniel Schmidt
Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah. Thanks. I think sort of my interpretation of what you're saying is that we will see more of this and that could of course change, but as we enter the spring, maybe we'll be at full compensation also for the sort of very elevated fulfillment costs. Is that sort of believable?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Yeah. Well, again, as we did discuss the cash flow seasonality, with Q2 and Q3 being very important quarters from a cash flow point of view for us, that should also mean that fulfillment levels come down to the levels we've seen historically.

Daniel Schmidt
Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah. Good. You write and you also answered the question that you had sort of a good start to Q1, if I got you right, with a sort of like the better start than you saw in Q3 and Q4. I guess the price increases helped that a little bit, I assume. But is it? Do you feel that the sort of the pandemic has been playing maybe a little bit again in your favor as of late? Is that the reason, or how do you view it?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

We actually don't think that's a major factor. We look at a host of data, I'm sure as you do. From the data we have, at least, spend on services is more or less restored to pre-pandemic levels. Of course, depending on the service type, but overall, consumers are spending on services again. No, I don't think that's a major factor. We assess based on data from Google and from industry indices and also from some of what our peers are saying that the market contracted quite significantly in the quarter, admittedly versus-

Daniel Schmidt
Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

... you know, the pandemic peaks. I think even if you take our lowest growth metric, like the pure organic metric, that shows that we're gaining market share, you know, rather than riding on the tails of extraordinarily strong demand out there.

Daniel Schmidt
Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

I was just thinking that the entire online industry is gaining again a bit more. I appreciate that you guys do that, but just sort of given the restrictions that have been imposed since late November, again in different Nordic markets and continentally or for that matter, I was just thinking that maybe people are okay shifting back again, staying a little bit more at home and not visiting physical stores that much again as they did in maybe September, October.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

From our own experience from our network of showrooms, you know, we don't see that our showrooms are underperforming. If we extrapolate that to general consumer behavior, you know, there may be, you know, somewhat of an effect from what you're calling out there, but I don't think it's a major driver here.

Daniel Schmidt
Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

No. Okay. Good. Then if I got you right also, you saw the peak in terms of investments that you needed to do in personnel in the latter half of last year, and then you're not adding more than you're growing as you enter 2022, if I got you right, then that means that we should have some sort of relief in terms of pressure on margins and costs going forward. When you talked about AH Trading making a loss in Q4 and then went on to talk about the coming year, that was still regarding AH Trading, right? That wasn't for the full group.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Yes.

Daniel Schmidt
Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah. All right. That's all for me. Thank you.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Thanks a lot.

Operator

The next question is coming from Carl Deijenberg at Carnegie. Your line is now open.

Carl Deijenberg
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Thank you, operator, and good morning Adam and Jesper. Two questions from my side here. First on the gross margin here, I mean, that's similarly seen in Q3 also, but could you elaborate a bit on the gross margin contraction in home furnishing versus DIY? I mean, it seemed to be flat here in Q4 year-on-year in home furnishing while it's contracting by roughly two percentage points in DIY. Could you give a bit more flavor what you're seeing there and maybe also sort of what you expect on gross margin here going into 2022? Is it stabilizing or what do you see there on the shipping side?

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Jesper, do you want to address that please?

Jesper Flemme
Group CFO, BHG

No. If you look at the DIY segment and the gross margin, I think one should remember that the comparison with 2020 is extremely tough. Q4 is normally a weaker quarter for DIY when it comes to margin. That's the first thing. The second thing I think also when it comes to 2020 was that many of the supplier bonuses have sort of you know they are like stairs. When you hit the new plateau, you will get a higher bonus. That reconciliation is partly done in Q4, so that's affecting also 2020. I think looking at the gross margin, it's really 2020 that disturbs the picture.

Carl Deijenberg
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay, I understand. Second question is on M&A. I mean, you're stating here in the report that you're witnessing maybe higher multiples from sellers than what you're ready to pay. I mean, at the same time, you seem quite upbeat here on M&A going into 2022. I mean, is this starting to meet your expectations now? Could you explain a bit what you're seeing—I mean that statement, are we talking about higher multiples that sellers are expecting in absolute numbers? Or is it just that your sort of valuation reflection on the performance that should be below or given the year-on-year performance also in the markets among the targets? Or if you could give some color on that as well.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Sure. We've all been around the block a few times, and I think it's fair to say that in a relatively rapid market adjustments the impact on publicly listed assets is happening well before private expectations fully adjust. That adjustment is also taking place quite rapidly. Overall, I would say now when we look at our pipeline, we feel good about the discussions that we're having, and we feel that expectations by and large are quite reasonable now. I think the second element, which you know was an element through the first year of the pandemic, was it's quite easy to extrapolate recent performance into the future.

I think we've been quite careful all along in our own communication to state and to try and quantify the magnitude by which we were helped by pandemic developments in the first year of the pandemic. However, from some of the sellers discussions, you know, the expectations on the future, we may have had a more cautious view on how these assets will perform as things sort of come down to more normal levels. As we've stated all along, you know, the pre-pandemic trajectory of rising online penetration from these low levels that is still very much what we see going forward. I think it's worthwhile to, in most cases at least, to normalize for the peak demand that materialized during the first year of the pandemic.

Some of the discussions, also I would say, have revolved around somewhat different expectations on the future trajectories of some of these businesses.

Carl Deijenberg
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. That's very good. That was all my questions. Thank you.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Thanks a lot.

Operator

There are no more questions at the moment. For closing remarks, I would like to speakers.

Adam Schatz
President and CEO, BHG

Okay. Thanks everyone for calling in. Thanks for great questions, and we look forward to staying in touch with all of you. Thank you. Have a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this call has been concluded. You may disconnect.

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