Billerud AB (publ) (STO:BILL)
Sweden flag Sweden · Delayed Price · Currency is SEK
82.15
-2.25 (-2.67%)
Sep 24, 2026, 5:29 PM CET
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q2 2026

Jul 17, 2026

Summary

Q2 saw improved profitability and strong cash conversion, with North America delivering robust sales and Europe showing sequential gains. Price increases and cost-saving measures are driving results, while Q3 is expected to benefit from further pricing and stable demand.

Operator

Good day, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Billerud Q2 Report 2026 webcast and conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone. You will hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Lena Schattauer, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Lena Schattauer
Head of Investor Relations, Billerud

Hello, welcome to this presentation of Billerud's second quarter report. Great to have you with us this morning. I am joined by our CEO, Ivar Vatne, and our CFO, Andrei Krés, they will take us through the highlights and developments of the quarter. We will, as usual, open up the call for questions. We are ready to start. Ivar, the floor is yours.

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

Thank you, Lena, good morning, everyone. Thank you all for listening in to our presentation this Friday morning. In many aspects, it has been a quarter we have seen progress across several areas, it has certainly been a good step in the right direction for us. Let us get into it. Next slide, please. As expected, our Q2 result was a clear improvement versus the first quarter. North America had a very strong sales quarter with FX neutral net sales up 11% versus year ago, which is another testament to our attractive U.S. position offering local supply. For region Europe, the main focus over the last months had been on improving profitability, that is exactly what we managed to do now in Q2. Our performance is stronger and improved, both when we compare to last year and versus Q1.

I am naturally pleased to see this as we mobilized the organization early in the year to move us forward. Decisive actions on pricing, reducing both fixed and variable costs, and driving a more profitable mix are now yielding results. Focus on working capital is another clear priority for us, a 97% cash conversion during the Q2 is another good performance. Next slide, please. We have a clear philosophy to focus on the items we can control and drive continuous improvement. In that regard, our fixed cost-saving program is proceeding well and according to plan. We recorded SEK 150 million savings now during the quarter, that is SEK 15 million incremental from Q1. All staff reductions are now completed, in Q2, we did have the first quarter with a leaner organizational model and somewhat simplified ways of working.

I do like to take the opportunity to thank the whole Billerud organization for showing agility and determination to deliver on the standards we expect. It certainly has been an important building block to improve both our productivity and competitiveness. In this program, we expect the benefit for 2026 to land in the area of SEK 550 million with further SEK 250 million to be delivered in 2027. Next slide, please. Another very important company priority is to evolve our portfolio gradually towards packaging materials in North America. We are picking up sales momentum after a long period of trials and qualification, and it is in particular true for our liner proposition Tribute. The interest in our coated liner has so far exceeded our expectations, and we are now expanding our offering also to include uncoated liner.

We will do some selective CapEx investments now during Q3 to further strengthen our production capabilities within the area. There is no doubt that we also expect further sales acceleration into the second half of the year. Over to some words about the market sentiment. Next slide, please. If I start with North America, the market conditions, they remain favorable and stable. The overall consumer sentiment in the U.S., it did take a hit post the crisis in the Middle East, but so far within our categories, Q2 was another quarter with good demand. Our order books are strong, and we are expecting to see operating rates above 90% going into Q3. If we change over to Europe, the market sentiment is a bit different. Overall, it has been muted, but we are starting to meet different conditions between our sales channels.

Within food and beverages, conditions have improved and are starting to normalize. Luxury is still weak, while the industrial channel also has improved during the quarter and in some sense is starting to normalize. Lastly, some words about Asia and rest of the world. The situation has also improved slightly during the quarter. Food and beverages, and that means for us mostly liquid packaging board. That has performed surprisingly well during the first six months of 2026 and has reached normal conditions. Also within the industrial channel, where our exposure mostly found within the sack, the sentiment has strengthened a bit during the quarter. With that, I will hand it over to Andrei.

Andrei Krés
CFO, Billerud

Thank you, Ivar, and good morning, everyone. Starting with our net sales, which were down 2% versus year ago, and this was driven by the pricing development in Europe. Sales volume for the group were in line with the last year, with North American up 7%, while the European volumes were down close to 3%. Currency continues to have an impact on both our top line and profitability, as we have stronger Swedish krona compared to Q2 last year. Next slide, please. The profit decline versus last year was driven first and foremost by price pressure in Europe and loss of emission rights. Most of the impact was offset by our decisive actions to reduce costs, our volume growth in North America, and pulpwood cost relief in the Nordics.

Our EBITDA margin of 7% was a clear improvement sequentially, given we also had heavier maintenance schedule now in Q2. Excluding the impact from maintenance shutdown, adjusted EBITDA increased with four percentage points versus quarter one. Next slide, please. Moving over to regions. First of all, I'm very pleased to see that our actions to improve profitability in region Europe are yielding results as we see improved profitability both sequentially and versus a year ago. We did see sequentially lower volumes across most categories, but clearly, that impact was more than offset by our pricing and mix actions together with cost reductions. Pricing was up with close to 1% versus quarter one, and we expect additional pricing carryover into the third quarter of 1% - 2%.

In terms of input costs, as expected, we had significant pulpwood cost relief compared to previous quarter, partly offset by cost inflation due to the Middle East crisis. Looking into the third quarter, we have solid order books, which are partly supported by the seasonal impact from temporary capacity adjustments in the Nordics. As Ivar mentioned, the underlying demand remains somewhat muted. Now, moving over to region North America. North America continues to enjoy favorable market conditions and had the highest sales volume since late 2022, with more than 250,000 tons sold in the quarter. Sales grew both within graphic and label paper, while pulp sales were slightly down compared to last year due to Quinnesec maintenance shutdown. The positive volume development means that we now operate at considerably higher operating rates, which were above 90%, and we expect that level to also continue into Q3.

The biennial maintenance shutdown at Quinnesec was slightly more expensive and had approximately SEK 50 million higher cost impact, which was related to some startup challenges. The mill performance has progressed throughout the quarter, and we are now back to strong operational performance. For the third quarter, we expect the favorable market conditions to continue, and similarly to Europe, we have strong order books. The price increases that were announced earlier in the year will now fully materialize in quarter three, and we expect a positive pricing impact of 2% - 3% for the region compared to the second quarter. Next slide, please. Turning over to some comments on the cost development. First of all, in the second quarter, as we expected for Europe, we saw continued pulpwood cost decline and also seasonally lower electricity costs, which contributed positively.

That impact was partly offset by cost inflation on most and foremost logistics due to higher oil prices. All in all, we had a sequential cost relief of approximately SEK 150 million for the region in line with the expectations. For North America, we saw likewise cost inflation related to higher oil prices, which impacted fiber, chemical, and logistics costs. Energy costs were somewhat lower due to seasonality. Overall, the input costs were down approximately SEK 20 million compared to the first quarter. Next slide, please. Looking forward, for the third quarter, we expect overall flat input cost situation, but clearly, due to the events in the Middle East and volatile oil price, it is somewhat unpredictable environment.

For Europe, we still expect further pulpwood cost relief, although the decline is now flattening out. At this point, we expect both lower pulpwood costs and seasonally lower electricity prices to offset the cost increase we will experience on chemicals. We would look at the total sequential cost relief of around SEK 40 million for the region. For North America, we expect input costs to increase somewhat into quarter three, but here we are talking about quite small increases with a total negative impact of around SEK 20 million. With that, I will hand it back to you, Ivar.

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

Thank you, Andrei. Some comments on cash flow and balance sheet. As already mentioned, cash conversion now in Q2 was another solid performance with close to 100% conversion. Our balance sheet remains healthy, and leverage ended at 2.2 after the dividend payout was executed during the quarter. Our CapEx guidance remains unchanged for 2026, and we are planning to invest SEK 2.6 billion. Most of the strategic CapEx is related to Project Evolution in North America, and we do expect that program should be close to completion by the end of the year. We will get back with the CapEx guidance for 2027 in conjunction with our coming Q3 report. To round it up, next slide please, closing remarks on the near-term outlook. For Q3, we would expect continued favorable conditions in North America.

The situation for region Europe is a bit more uncertain and unpredictable, but we are seeing some positive momentum, at least within selective channels. For both regions, we will see positive pricing impact now in Q3. With that, I hand it back to operator for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. We will now go to our first question. One moment, please. Your first question today comes from the line of Johannes Grunselius from SB1 Markets. Please go ahead.

Johannes Grunselius
Analyst, SB1 Markets

Yes. Hi, everyone. It's Johannes here. I have a question, Ivar and team, on your comments on positive pricing. Did you say on the call what kind of price magnitude we are talking about, or does that remain to be seen? It will be very helpful if you could sort of give us some indication on the magnitude there, please.

Andrei Krés
CFO, Billerud

Yes. Good morning, Johannes. As you know, we announced price increases broadly during the first quarter, and they are now materializing. We did see some pricing impact in Q2. Heading into the third quarter, we expect for region Europe additional pricing impact of 1%-2% compared to the second quarter. For region North America, a pricing impact of 2%-3% compared to the second quarter.

Johannes Grunselius
Analyst, SB1 Markets

Okay. Very helpful. Thank you. On your comment about strong order backlog, how should we interpret that? First of all, if you can expand a bit, what you mean with this in terms of periods of order backlog and so on. Do you think this will materialize in sort of better mix quarter-over-quarter and also higher volumes quarter-over-quarter?

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

Good morning, Johannes. I can start and maybe Andrei chip in at the end here. The way we would look at this is that North America had a pretty solid quarter in terms of sales volume. We would expect that to continue also into Q3. We are operating now in the 90%-ish operating rates in North America, and that we expect to continue now in Q3. We had some maintenance shut in Q2 in Quinnesec, and we will have Escanaba now in Q3. In that sense, still going strong. The mix question there in North America is we had a bit lower pulp sales in Quinn. That we would expect to pick up now, since Quinn is back to full blaze, and that typically has a bit of a subdued margin, so there might be some small negative impact on the mix in North America.

For region Europe, it's a bit of a mixed bag, but in general, order books are very strong. We do expect to run a pretty solid production pace now going forward. We probably would expect some pickup in terms of the volume. We might see some offset since in this quarter here now, we would expect to sell a bit more than we produce, and part of that volume uplift could be offset by some fixed cost absorption. In general, good order books and good production pace is also the case for Europe in Q3.

Johannes Grunselius
Analyst, SB1 Markets

Okay. That's great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now go to the next question. The next question today comes from the line of Linus Larsson from SEB. Please go ahead.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB

Thank you very much, good morning, everyone. You talk about somewhat improved market conditions in Europe. I wonder if you could shed some more light on that, possibly which segments are we talking about, and how do you interpret that? Is this part of an inventory cycle, or is it your view that we are seeing some real demand improvement, some more constructive customer behavior out there?

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

Yeah. Good morning, Linus. I can start with this. It is a good question first and foremost. I think the honest answer here is that we continuously ask ourselves that question, and I am the first to admit we probably need a bit more evidence and months under our belt to really feel that this is a longer trend. I can just confirm that right now we are seeing better demand in food and beverages. As you know, that is our biggest channel in region Europe. Liquid packaging has been strong from pretty much the beginning of the year, and we are pretty confident that will keep up at least into Q3. For containerboard, I think also we see a pretty okay situation. Fluting pretty much is fully sold out in terms of our machines going forward.

There is a nice pull from our strong position in Latin America given our product performance on this Billerud Flute. Liner is a bit weaker, but still it is holding up better than maybe we thought three months ago. Luxury, and for us, that means a lot of the exposure to cartonboard is still the weakest part. That has been weak for some time, and I think we do not expect much change on that. Certainly, also, this is an area that has a lot of overcapacity. We are doing better than others on brown, but on white carton and FBB, it is still a pretty muted and weak situation. I think for paper, sack now is clicking in quite nicely into gear, and we have more pull now on brown sack than probably we had for many quarters. We certainly also sold out on that piece.

Yeah, maybe somehow a bit of a surprise, we see that industrial channel has picked up. That is not only in Europe, but a lot of the regional exposure we have on brown sack is found in Middle East, North Africa, and also into Asia. That has been better, yeah, than what we have seen for some time. White sack is a bit muted, but still better than maybe it was. kraft paper, in this case, MG and MF is still a little bit softer than we see on sack, but also a bit of an uptick versus what we saw for the last two quarters. I think, if you sum it up, it is still not fully back to maybe the old, let us say, sentiment that we had 2%-3% category growth consistently.

It is certainly now a step in the right direction, and we are seeing, for some time now, better pull on many of the channels we have exposure to.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB

Interesting. That improvement is not visible in your Europe shipments numbers for the second quarter. I guess what you're alluding to here is that we will see a pickup in Europe shipments volumes in the third quarter. Are we back to year-on-year growth in terms of European shipments in the third quarter?

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

No, I don't want to comment necessarily that we also had some maintenance shots in the quarter that impacted, if you think quarter-over-quarter. I can confirm we are expecting a volume uplift now in Q3 versus Q2. That impact, as I mentioned also on the previous question, would be a bit more reduced given the impact that we expect a bit bigger impact on the fixed cost absorptions as we would expect to sell a bit more in the quarter versus production. In general, the underlying sentiment still remains that we should have a better sales volume quarter in Q3 than Q2 for Europe.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB

Great. Just finally, also on the market situation, in North America, you've had a fantastic recovery in terms of operating rates over the past several quarters by now. With regards to trade barriers, et cetera, and your very special market position, could you just give us the snapshot here and now with this kind of operating rates? What's the trajectory of profitability, pricing, et cetera, from here? Do you see how is this tariff dynamic working out in your market segments in the U.S.?

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

I think the situation has been favorable in North America for some quarters, and certainly has been a phenomenal performance over years now that we got used to from our colleagues in Michigan. We expect that going forward. I think so far in 2026, graphic paper has been outstanding and surprised us also a bit that it is a category in cyclical decline, as you know. I think so far this has held much better, and we might actually be right now on more flat category development. That is not something we would expect as the new normal. There's clearly been some big events now with both the World Cup and also the midterm election that is in some sense, pumping some extra energy into the category. We have a great position.

We are one of the few remaining locally produced suppliers, I think our value proposition of predictability and reliability and a near-term partner is really paying off. Graphic is still going to be the cornerstone of that for some time. We do know, and I'm repeating myself, it is in secular decline and we have other legs to stand on. Our label paper is also one of that, there we see more favorable conditions and growth of 1%- 2%. There we have a leading position for some time, we expect to have that. Then we do come back to the point around our journey to gradually go into packaging materials.

Yes, those numbers are still in a scale-up or startup mode, we are getting now to the point where more and more of our qualification trials are turning into successful and tangible results, that momentum should go forward. I think we would expect strong performance for the foreseeable future in North America. Input cost situation is much more stable than in Europe. I think we come now with pricing in Q3 that will also take a good step into the gross margin. Operating rates should be on the higher side for at least some time going forward. That's our best estimate right now.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB

Great. Many thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Cole Hathorn from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Cole Hathorn
Analyst, Jefferies

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I'd just like to follow up on the comments that you made in your statement about evaluating all opportunities to play an active role in addressing the industry challenges. I know the market is very difficult and that that comment leaves the scope open for footprint rationalization and M&A. I'd like to ask on the M&A side, do you also take the view that with a bigger footprint, it's easier to reallocate volumes and it's easier to close capacity when you have scale? I'm just wondering if M&A is on the table and how you think about it within the industry.

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

Yeah. Hi, good morning, Cole. I can try to add some comments on this. I think what we're trying to say with this statement is that although now we are seeing a bit improved sentiment, at least also in Europe, it doesn't take away the fact that it's still a pretty unbalanced situation. We are not very optimistic on the long-term view of the competitiveness of the region unless we see some structural change. I think I would have a pretty broad-based support, I think from my sector colleagues on that statement. You can do many things to try to make some interventions here. You can do it alone. You can also do it in a bigger context. I think what you mentioned on M&A, I think everything is on the table.

As far as I can go today, it's safe to say that we are allocating quite a bit of time on that both within the management but also in terms of our dialogue with the board, to see what really is going to be positioned going forward. That's pretty much, I guess, as long as I would like to go on that statement.

Cole Hathorn
Analyst, Jefferies

Sure. Then maybe just following up on the volume commentary. The deliveries of 610,000, it is quite low compared to history, and I get it that the market's challenged, but you've got really good operating rates in North America, whereas the operating rates in Europe are more challenged. Do you think that this is an element of you need to right size your asset base to kind of address the volume gap? If we look at 2025 volumes of 2.5 million tons versus going back to 2020, 2021, 2019, there's a 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons gap, which is an entire paper machine, and I'm just wondering, is the asset base still fit for purpose or are you going to need to take some actions there? Thank you.

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

I think it goes straight into the first point where, us and the whole sector is running below where they would need to run. It is a very capital-intensive sector where you are almost in some sense dependent on having a very high position to make solid financials. Yeah, we share the view that it is too much capacity versus now what the market looks like and with some of the X factors we met over the last years. That applies to us and it applies to pretty much the whole sector. Yeah, I can only say that although we see a bit of a step up into the right direction, the fundamental challenge that we see now in sector is not going away anytime soon.

Cole Hathorn
Analyst, Jefferies

Just to follow up, to end it on more of a positive one, which is the kind of the order books better into Europe and to Q3. Do you think there's been any kind of increase in, or restocking or supply chain pull forward? My channel checks indicated there was some in containerboard, but I hadn't really seen anything in sack or specialty kraft or folding carton. I'm just wondering if there is any restock or kind of customers wanting a little bit more inventory for safety. Anything to explain the better order books from your side or restocking would be helpful.

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

That's another question that we try to stay very close to our customers to get the best intelligence out there. I would have had some of the same fear during second quarter, in particular when the going back to COVID, what happened and, when the Middle East crisis happened, then of course, the natural reaction is that will we now see something similar? I think what we've seen, though, is in Europe, there hasn't been much, you can call it disruption at all. I certainly don't expect that to have been in any way impacted with some extra safety stock. Intuitively, you can say that everything that goes to Asia might have had some impact given supply chain in that, passing by the region is a bit sketchy.

What we have seen is that not much is coming our way of a need to do safety stock. Another piece that tends to be a good indication is, we're coming with pricing that is starting to hit from the first of July. That can lead, in some cases, to customer stocking a bit up before. Our order books are strong. They're very solid also going into Q3. That's also not what we're saying. At least to best knowledge, the stocking impact that we should have seen over the last months should have been very limited.

Cole Hathorn
Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone keypad. That is star one and one to ask a question. We will now go to our next question. The next question comes from the line of, one moment, Martin Melbye from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.

Martin Melbye
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Yes, good morning. A question on pulpwood. At the start of the year, you gave a number of SEK 900 million in cost benefits for you from a price decline. How much of wood costs dropped since then, and how much are you expecting now?

Andrei Krés
CFO, Billerud

Yes. Good morning, Martin. I think if we look for the full year, the SEK 900 million was really based around our view or expectation that price per cubic meter would be roughly SEK 100 per cubic meter lower in the year. This is still our expectation for the full year, and this is on that trajectory that we have been now for the first half of the year. First half of the year, we have had roughly half of it in terms of profit uplift.

Martin Melbye
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

That is still what you see? There is no further decline from the 100?

Andrei Krés
CFO, Billerud

No, not at this point.

Martin Melbye
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay. Then the second question. You have announced 68% on sack kraft and coated fine. Have they gone through? Does that mean that there is more price increases for Q4 or has that happened in Q2?

Andrei Krés
CFO, Billerud

Yeah. In terms of the price increase, the announced price increases were communicated both during quarter one and quarter two. They have gone through, so they are being implemented. As you know, there is a variation between how much we get through within the different regions and areas. Those are now fully in the guidance that we provided in terms of price increases of 1%-2% for the region into Q3.

Martin Melbye
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay, good. Last question on volumes. You give this comment that volumes will be better, that the fixed cost absorption will be lower. Does that mean that you produce more in this quarter?

Andrei Krés
CFO, Billerud

Yes, we did.

Martin Melbye
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question. The question comes from the line of Oskar Lindström from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.

Oskar Lindström
Analyst, Danske Bank

Good morning. Two questions left from my side. One is on the chemicals cost, which you're now saying is going up, and obviously that's related to the higher energy prices. My question is, how quick is that energy impact into chemicals? If we see energy prices come down sort of now, let's say in the coming month, would that quickly translate into lower chemicals prices as well for, let's say, Q4 and into next year? That's the first question. The second question is, you're describing an overall market situation which seems to have fairly quickly improved with good order books also in Europe and fairly good, it seems, demand in export markets. Do you believe there's further room for price increases? Even without any structural actions in the industry? Those were my two questions.

Andrei Krés
CFO, Billerud

Yes. Good morning, Oskar. I will start with the question on chemicals. In terms of the inventory turnaround, to just start with, it is somewhat faster than we have for our fiber inventory. It goes quite quickly. It's mostly really dependent on the contract structure and how often we negotiate the contracts for the chemicals. I would say that, as a guidance, it would probably be a quarter ahead that we would see the price impact on chemicals to come through the P&L.

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

Good morning, Oskar. I can take the second. Yes, it's a good question. It is tough to give a very good answer on this, but I'll give it a shot. We need to come at this from slightly different angles. One angle is if you think about, at least within Europe, what is driving a lot of the pricing push on the virgin fiber, and they tend to be within the recycle, who are starting this, you can call it circle. There is also, in some sense, a bit of an unhealthy balance on recycle. There is a bit too much capacity that we also see there that tend to be a bit more strain on ability to price up.

Much more for the recycle players than what we see here up in Nordic with integrated pulp mills, is that they're very depending on the energy cost, especially on the gas prices. Clearly they spike post what we saw in the Middle East. The million-dollar question is what's going to happen with that going forward. Clearly, it's lower now over the summer, but when you go into the fall, if they will stay and we will see oil prices and gas pricing being elevated and maybe even going a bit further, I think the likelihood is that we will see another wave is high. Not something necessarily that we are counting on, and clearly we will obviously seize any opportunity we have. That could very easily happen.

It can also happen the other way if we start to see that there is more stability and those are coming into more historical levels. You might very fast expect to see some mechanism that goes the other way. It's probably the best answer I have for you right now.

Oskar Lindström
Analyst, Danske Bank

Great. I think that's a great answer. Thank you. Those were my questions.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Cole Hathorn from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Cole Hathorn
Analyst, Jefferies

Good morning. Thanks for taking the follow-up. I'd just like to ask on the European Commission putting in some protectionist measures from the likes of Shein and some of the Chinese products that are coming across cheaply on the internet, on the e-commerce platforms. I'm just wondering, do you have a view? Do you think that this will be supportive to the European packaging industry? Is this supportive to Billerud ultimately? Does this mean that we're going to have a little bit more goods and supply chains using the European packaging papers? Thank you.

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

I can take that one. As a starting point, I think we in Billerud, we are in very favor of call it free trade or pretty open trade relations. That's what we've seen for a lot of decades, and that's been good for us. I guess what we're seeing now, when we're starting to see a trend which is starting to be more regionalized in North America with what they've done over the last, let's call it, quarters and years, it's starting to be a big issue since a lot of the installed capacity in Europe and Nordic was calibrated for that. When we also then play on the other premise that Asian players are ramping up, and they have ramped up a lot of the capacity, and we will start to meet more intense competition also in Europe.

I think we just want to make sure that we are meeting that on fair terms and conditions. Don't see Europe as the anti-dumping scene as we've seen in other categories. We don't necessarily have a strong position that we don't like Asian export into Europe. I think that's a natural evolution, also what the sector has done in Asia. For example, we have a pretty sizable export into Asia from our Nordic mills, and clearly we expect that to continue. You also have to accept that there's a window coming the other way around. As long as it does on, in terms which is fair and comparable and not necessarily subsidies and the support underlying that makes Europe an anti-dumping scene, we are okay with this.

I trust now that EU starts to wake up to the reality and notice that, hey, the world has changed, and we also need to look after our region and make sure that we get access to the same competitive fair terms. That will be our position that we will pursue and support.

Cole Hathorn
Analyst, Jefferies

Maybe just following up there just to understand how Billerud might benefit. If we take the view that the e-commerce platforms set up, let's say European-based fulfillment or repackaging hubs, that should ultimately help drive a little bit more demand for European boxes or even mailer bags, et cetera. I'm just wondering which segments of Billerud might benefit from using more a shift to EU retailers, manufacturers, and kind of fulfillment and repackaging hubs. Would it be your kind of containerboard business and sack and specialty? Which segments would be the beneficiaries?

Ivar Vatne
President and CEO, Billerud

Yeah, natural would be containerboard. It will be within our kraft paper, in particular on the MF side, where we have a pretty good leg to stand already today on e-commerce. That's been growing, and I think the MF in particular will be where I will point to. That should be something that would get an uplift.

Cole Hathorn
Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is also a follow-up from the line of Linus Larsson from SEB. Please go ahead.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB

Thanks for taking my follow-up. Coming back to wood costs, you're guiding in Europe for net cost tailwind of SEK 40 million in the third compared to the second quarter. How much is wood cost tailwind? Also, sometimes we've talked about the inventory impact from revaluation in this context. Is any such revaluation included in guidance, or is that on top? If so, how much? Thank you.

Andrei Krés
CFO, Billerud

Hi, Linus. Pulpwood stands for most of that sequential cost decline of SEK 40 million that we expect. We will have some minor increases on chemicals as I talked about, they will be offset by the lower electricity prices. Most of it is actually pulpwood. I think in terms of inventory valuation, obviously we are coming in a stage where quarter-on-quarter, the impact becomes less evident and smaller due to flattening out decline. It is included in the guidance, and it should be pretty much flat heading into Q3.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB

Great. Thanks for that clarification.

Operator

Thank you. There are currently no further questions. I will hand the call back to Lena.

Lena Schattauer
Head of Investor Relations, Billerud

Thank you. That concludes our presentation of the second quarter report. We wish you welcome back in October for our third quarter report. Thanks for joining us today, and goodbye.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.