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Earnings Call: Q4 2017
Jan 29, 2018
Good afternoon, everybody, and most welcome to this year end report press and analyst conference. My name is Christophe Casselblar. I'm Head of Investor Relations. A few words about the agenda. We will start by with 20, 25 minutes about the details.
Presentation will be held by Sussan Li Thander, our CFO. After that, we will open up for a Q and A session, where also Peter Inarson, our CEO, will join in. Before we leave the word to Susan, I know that Peter would like to say a few words. So if you're ready, the floor is yours.
I think I can talk in this. So I just wanted to say that it's really great to be here. And I will not talk that very much this presentation. I will leave the stage to you, Susan. But if you have any questions to me, we'll, of course, be happy to answer.
So but I think I listened to you also to some this Q1. Thanks.
I guess I'm the lucky one this time. Okay. Year end report 2017. In spite of some challenges over the quarter and also over the year, we actually are pretty happy that we can present a result for the year end that is in line with our financial targets. We can actually tick off all the boxes in our financial targets.
We had a growth of 3%. We also had an EBITDA an adjusted EBITDA of 17%. Our return on capital employed is also 13% and our net debt to EBITDA is below our target. It's on 1.53 at this point in time. So we're pretty happy about that.
We have also proposed or the Board will propose 54% dividend, €4.30, no changes from last year. So and all this, we can present thanks to a very strong demand, of course. You know that the market is very strong and we have been able to increase our pricing. We could have delivered more. We could have sold more if we had our production producing fully.
Even so, we still have a record high production levels. We've never produced this much ever. And this is actually what it looks like in our production. We have grown 230,000 tonnes since we started this company was formed. We have a year on year average growth of 2% within the production.
We also have in 3 of our mills, we have all time high production levels. It's in Gavle, Fjerve and Gerblakka. We know that we still have some more to get out of our existing structure that we have invested in increases over the 5 years period that we've been as a company. We still have some more to get out of these investments. And to be able to do that, we will continue to focus, and this is near and dear to our new CEO, to focus on operational excellence.
And the foundation in a company like ours when it comes to operational excellence is health and safety to make sure that we have the safety system that it really needs in this type of business. We have also improving our quality systems. We are approaching our customers and our quality issues in a much more systematic and structured way that program is being implemented and has been under implementation for quite a while. And finally, we're also focusing a lot on stability in our production. We're not looking at our investments and our CapEx from a point of view where we can only do bottlenecking.
We're looking at it from a stability point of view. And we have recruited we've talked about this before. We have recruited a few or quite a few specialists and formed some specialist groups on a central level that will work across all of our mills and especially in the areas of health and safety, but also in the pulp area, in the pulp processes. So that's a bit about the total year and our production issues and what we're doing to avoid them in the future. If we look at the 4th quarter only, at a glance, we had a sales level of 5,500,000,000 that is 2% up compared to Q4 last year, driven by pricing improvements.
So better local pricing is driving that. Our EBITDA is €9.23 non adjusted or that is adjusted? And the margin is 17%. And as you can see here, we have the split between our business areas, basically the same as this has been for a while, Packaging Papers 40%, Consumer Board now 35% and Corrugated Solutions about 20%. And to get our wood into our mills.
To get our wood into our mills. The highlights that we have, we see it continued during the quarter was a continued high demand across all our business areas. We saw price increases in basically all areas. We had the negative effects on from the production disruptions that cost us about $120,000,000 in the quarter. And the higher EBITDA was driven by increased prices, as I said before, but also lower cost compared to last year.
Last we had big cost for some events in Rokkamal, where we had problems with starting up that machine after a stop. So our adjusted EBIT margin ends up at 11%. And the outlook is looks pretty good from a market perspective, short- and long term, if you look at demand. If you go into our financial targets on a more detailed level, Our net sales grew with 2% quarter on quarter. And that is I need to check here, which is corresponds to the 3% year on year growth.
We did have lower volumes in the quarter compared to last year. We actually had 23,000 tonnes lower volumes compared to last year. So you can see that the price increases are showing off here. On the EBITDA level, the adjusted EBITDA is an improvement with 6%. It's not really fair to look at the EBITDA The regular EBITDA shows an improvement of 33%, but we had a huge provision last year for restructuring costs in Girudan.
So it's more fair to compare the adjusted EBITDA and that corresponds to 6% improvement. Volume wise, we are actually negative and that has a negative impact of 3%. Our cash flow, we're now starting to see that the payments for our investments are ticking in. So we have a negative cash flow in the quarter of SEK700 1,000,000. We do do have good working capital.
Our working capital level is at 9% of sales. Our target is to be at 11%. We do have a fairly decent working capital. It is a bit doped by big invoices for the Gripen project, but still on a good level. Our return on capital employed adjusted 13%, spot on our target.
Our capital employed is up to a level of SEK19.5 billion now and continues to grow with our investments. And our leverage targets is to be below 2.5x EBITDA when it comes to net debt and we are now up to 1.53. We have a total net debt of $5,700,000,000 end of the year. And if we go into the business areas, This slide you have all seen before. I would assume it's just a presentation of the business areas such.
Packaging paper, which is our business area that supply kraft and sack paper. And they are very much focusing on consumer goods, the medical market, the sugar, flour, sugar consumer, eatables and building materials. Packaging paper has a 4% increase quarter on quarter in their net sales. They had a net sales of $2,100,000,000 They see increased prices in local currencies. They could have had they could have sold more had they not been affected by the disruptions, primarily in Gruen and a bit in Freibreka as well.
EBITDA is down 5% compared to last year, and that's due to the lower production volumes and also some minor negative currency effects. The prices on both pulp and paper has continued to increase as everybody is aware of, I assume. What we should mention here is that packaging paper shows a record high result. They have never been over SEK 1,000,000,000 before, so we are celebrating that they are over SEK 1,000,000,000 for the first time this year, very strong. And we also expect the kraft and sack paper market to continue to be solid with potential price increases in local currency in the quarter coming quarter.
That's packaging paper. Consumer Board Business Area, where we have our liquid packaging board and our carton board and where we clearly have a volume strategy, volume growth strategy. This is where we want to see the volume growth come. In our net sales, we have actually a decrease compared to last year, same quarter, due to production availability. The EBITDA is up 8%, but that's also due to higher cost in the Q4 last year when we had trouble in Rokamal.
Overall, for the full year, they actually grew with 3%. So they do reach the year on year or the overall target that we have for the company to grow. So they did grow 3% last year. And the carton board is doing really well. They had record high sales in last year.
And we expect the situation also here for this business area to continue to be strong. Last and least, our corrugated solutions business area that supply fluting and liner and also the managed packaging services that we have. Their development during the Q4 is that the sales increased with 2%, thanks to improved pricing and also a substantial increase in managed packaging. Managed packaging grew with 50% last year. They are now up to 17%, 18% of sales year on year.
EBITDA is down 12% versus last year, and that is because of the production disruptions in primarily in Gruven. And when Gruven stops, PM6 stops and PM6 is machine producing fluting, and that's the lifeline of this business area. We also talk about costs related to expansion within Managed Packaging. That means that we have cost for establishing ourselves in new markets. We go into new markets where we don't have offices today in our old business.
So we go into the new markets in Asia like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, etcetera. We have nothing on the ground and we need to put people and legal entities and legal setups to be able to operate there. And that has cost us about 25 ish million. We do have strong order books and increased prices in Europe. We see that.
And we expect the growth the strong order books and the increased pricing in Europe is primarily for the materials part, of course, the old part. And when it comes to Managed Packaging, we expect that to grow for 2018, not at the same pace. We expect it to grow with about 25%. That's the target for Managed Packaging to grow every year. But we do expect same for this business area, strong first quarter demand.
Our investments, we are investing a lot of money in moving the Tervasari machine to Helblaqa. We are also investing a lot of money in the new board machine in Gluverne. The progress is going well, the progress is progressing. We are progressing in the investments. The first investment we have been doing when it comes to moving the Terva machine to Carabraca, that machine is supposed to start up during the Q1.
We expect that to continue to start up during the Q1. We don't expect it to be delayed. So during the Q1, sometime that machine will be started. When it comes to the board machine in Gruva, we have already announced that we have major cost increases. And but we still believe that the machine will be able to start in the Q1 of 2019.
So we are progressing also on that investment even at a higher cost. So now it comes to the outlook for the rest of the year. And our short term outlook is that the demand and the order And just a reminder, we have already also announced that we will have impacts from the challenges of getting the wood out of the forest in primarily in the Baltics, get the hardwood out that we need to our mills. That will add extra cost us about €80,000,000 to €100,000,000 on bottom line for the Q1. If we look out for the full year, what we expect, we know that there are a lot of pulp capacity coming out on the market and there is a higher hence, there is a higher demand of pulp wood.
So we do see that there is more competition to get the wood. Our overall capacity, we deem we said last in the Q3, we said that we would increase our capacity overall with 1% due to the fact that we don't get the hardwood into our mills in the Q1. We are not running full steam in Gjerdoyan today, and primarily that hits corrugated solutions. We will not be able to reach the 1%. So we expect ourselves to be able to run at the same level as this year.
We will, however, we think be able to increase the volumes for Consumer Board. So Consumer Board, we think, will grow in accordance with targets. But for corrugated solutions and packaging paper, there will be reduced volumes due to the impact from the Gluvarn investment. We have to stop the machinery early in 2018 and have a much longer stop than anticipated. So the cost for next year for Gruva will be about 210,000,000.
These are the same costs that we've talked about. They have not increased. They are the same that we've talked about before. So it's about €75,000,000 extra because we have to stop the machine have a longer maintenance stop. And it's €75,000,000 for education and extra personnel that we're not allowed to activate.
And also we have the increased pace of the depreciation of the machines that we have the old machines that we are shutting down when we turn on the new machine. So those are the same costs that we've had before. Just a reminder. Our net exposure to the pulp market is decreasing next year. It's going down to about 150,000 tonnes.
And when it comes to pulp prices, we have no view at this point in time, because we have said so many times that it will come and it continues to go up. So eventually, we think it may come down, but we don't know when. So that is the presentation of the 4th quarter that we had planned. We have time now for question and answers. Pietro, if you join me.
Thank you very much. It's Linus Slauson with SEB. Maybe I can just come back to your outlook for 2018. And if you could just talk briefly about your wood price expectations. You have guided for this logistics impact that you expect to see in the Q1, the EUR 80,000,000 to EUR 100,000,000, but what do you expect in terms of wood prices?
Yes. That is a difficult question to answer. We are in the midst of that we pay for wood is open information. It's on our web. So if you go in under our website and forestry, you have the latest updated price lists there.
And we I mean, we follow the market and we try to get the best deal we can. But I don't have a good number to give you.
What's your visibility? I mean, does the SEK 80,000,000 to SEK 100,000,000 capture the list price changes that might take place as well? Or is
it The 80 to 100 has nothing to do with the potential price increases on our price lists. The 80 to 100 is part of it is reduced speed of PM6, because they consume a lot of birch. And that's the type of wood we have problems getting hold on. So that's part of it. And then you have an overall increase of cost because we have to buy a lot of eucalyptus, for instance, and we also buy pulp instead now.
That increases the cost. That gives us the €80,000,000 to €100,000,000 That has nothing to do with the price list increases on our
price list. But what's your guidance here? What should we expect? Is there an additional wood cost on top of the €80,000,000 to €100,000,000 in the first quarter?
In the Q1, I would say no.
Great. Maybe linked to that, the question to Pietra, I don't know on what level and to what detail you'd like to answer, but there's a lot of happening on the wood supply and the backward integration side with the dissolving of Bergvik. Could you say something about that? How long do you expect this process to take? Do you have any initial thoughts on backward integration and future ownership?
And I understand you don't want to go into too much detail, but any initial thoughts would be much appreciated.
I can't really reveal that much because we are in the middle of looking into that. And you could say that we are sort of getting into a due diligence process right now when a lot of things are not really clear. So I think the first step is to really have a fact based discussion and also to look at different alternatives. So we haven't reached any decisions yet when it comes to the future.
Is there a timeline that you could share with us?
Not really. It's so many different parts in this, so that are interlinked. So I don't really know how long it will take. But I think you could say that it will most probably be finalized during this year. That is no guarantees, but at least that is in my head right now.
Great. Thanks. And just one final question, if I may. Sure. Regarding the items affecting comparability on the EBIT line, there were EUR 66,000,000 of those in this quarter and EUR 150,000,000 on the full year.
How should we think they are largely project related, it seems?
They're all projects. They're the same cost
that we've talked about before. We just specified what they are. Right. And is that the same project costs that we're now talking about for 2018 basically? It's the same.
Thank you very much.
And we will show them every quarter moving forward. Great. Thanks.
Mikael Jofs, Kepler Cheuvreux. Just to continue on the wood costs, you have sensitivity sort of number there in your annual report from last year, but it sort of says fiber plus wood. Could you sort of give a little bit more color and flavor? I can
give you color on that. Yes, sure. We have I mean, we buy pulp. So it's pulp and wood basically. And you know how much pulp we have to buy.
We have to buy 200,000 to 250,000 tonnes of pulp. That's the flavor I can give you.
Okay. Well, thank you. That's helpful.
Hi. So I'm Oskar Lindstrom from Danske Bank. A couple of questions. The first one I'd like to ask is regarding the Groove and project, which is roughly 1,300,000,000. Could you explain a little bit more around how that came to be so much more expensive?
And what is the sort of reason behind it? Somebody must have made a mistake somewhere?
Yes, you would think. Yes, some color around that horrible number. Well, when we have these types of they're very complex. I mean, they're huge and very complex. What you do, you have a pre project where you bring in the experts to really check the ground and because it's really in the ground and the civils where we have the overrun and where we have the problems.
And you expect the experts to find what the ground looks like so that you are able to do the drawings and do the calculations on how deep you need to go with the piling. Obviously, the ground is much more complex or much more difficult than those experts had anticipated. So we have huge difficulties when it comes to the groundwork and how deep down you need to drill to hit solid ground because you need to anchor the poles in the solid ground. And that is becoming much, much more cement concrete and more steel, etcetera. And it's adding up.
But I can certainly agree that, yes, it's too much to just be a mistake.
So three sort of follow-up questions on that. I mean just the consultants who did the project work, are they the same ones carrying out the work afterwards?
No. I mean, the ones carrying out the works are the entrepreneurs basically. So you have in our case, we have NCC doing the civils and the groundwork and the buildings.
And second follow-up, will you be able to recover any of this cost increase from, I presume, the consultants who did the project work and the estimates.
We haven't anticipated that, but we will for sure do everything we can to share some responsibility here.
And then finally, how has this sort of cost overrun impacted the profitability of the project?
It still meets our targets of return, and it's still a very good project for us to do, still the right thing to do.
So your return requirement, then you're referring to the ROCE 13%. So even with a CapEx cost of €7,000,000,000 you still meet a 13% ROCE, also including the higher depreciation and everything. Yes. All right. Very interesting.
I have a few other questions, but I'll pass on to Mike.
Gustav Hansen with Pareto. You've talked a little bit about your measures to ensure production stability going forward. I'm just thinking if you could elaborate a little bit on what the main focus will be for the Specialist Group during the year and also if there's any reason to believe that your sort of base maintenance CapEx levels would come up in the coming years?
To start with the operational excellence issue, I think it's to really stabilize the production is, of course, really the target here. And I think we have already put in place quite a few specialists in the program, as Sasan said. And but I think it's to focus on not only on production, but also to focus on health and safety as well as quality at the same time to put the business system in place for all production sites. And here, I think we have really matured, I think, within quality. But maybe we are a little have a little bit more to take on when it comes to safety and also to have a mandatory setup for all production sites when it come to production targets.
But I don't think that if you look at the disturbances that we have had during the last 2 years, it's not so that you can sort of clearly see a generic issue sort of that it's that this is the thing that we need to fix. It's different kind of the disturbances in the productions that so it's not sorry, but it needs to be stabilized, but it's not so simple so that you can say that this is the generic root cause of everything.
And the CapEx levels, I'll take those. We'll have for 2018, we don't and then it falls back down to a more normal level of SEK 1.4 ish.
All right. Thank you.
So I'm back here. A couple of more questions. The price increases that you've mentioned are happening, are you finding that it's difficult to push through these price increases with your customers as you've had these production problems and I presume are kind of maybe failing to meet some deliveries to them?
Yes, especially on the corrugated side because they are the ones that are hurt the most. There we've had some problems, yes. But we still managed to get a lot of it through.
All right. But my interpretation of that is that you will have some perhaps not achieve follow the market, so to say, in the price increases or at least perhaps with more of a delay than one could expect otherwise. And we talked about the Bergvik Skog transaction and you didn't it's too early for you to say how you will act there or what decision you will make. But could you give us a little bit more information about how important Bergvik Skog is for your sourcing of wood?
Well, it stands for 10% of our supply. We source 10,500,000 cubic meters per year. And we get a bit over 1,000,000 from Bergvik Skog. So they are important to us. And if you have control of such a volume, you are much stronger when it comes to negotiating trades and bartering that we do in Sweden with all the different forest owners.
Right. And another question, you mentioned here during the presentation that working capital at the moment in relation to sales was perhaps a little bit lower than it would normally have been due to the Grovan investment and receivables you had there. Adjusting for that, what would be the sort of normalized level? And should that sort of come off during the course of this year? Or is it next year?
No, that will stay on for next year as well. I would say that it's probably more in the 10 ish area. So we're still in good shape.
All right.
Question on pricing. For Consumer Board, when will you renegotiate most of those contracts? Am I right thinking that it's end of this year? I think you mentioned before.
Yes. We have one contract that is being renewed this year and one next year.
Okay. Do we have any questions from the online viewers? The telephone conference.
Thank you. And our first question comes from the line of Justin Jordan from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. I just want to delve a little bit deeper into, I guess, both packaging paper. Firstly, just on you've given a very positive pricing and volume outlook. RISI would seem to indicate that some 5% sack cost increases have been achieved. Is that something that Bilo Root has achieved also?
Or can you just give us some idea of pricing power as it were in Q1 'eighteen within packaging paper at Bristle?
It's difficult to hear.
It's difficult to hear. Could you please repeat the question?
Sure. Okay. Sorry. Just within pricing within Packaging Paper, Roussy would indicate that a 5% increase has
been achieved in sack craft in calendar 'eighteen. Is that
something that 2018. Is that something that Bille Root has achieved?
Yes, it's in that area.
Okay. Thank you. And in Corrugated Solutions, again, there would seem to be price increases happening across the industry in calendar 2018, early weeks over the course. Can you comment on pricing within that division also?
For the Q4?
Yes. Okay. For the Q4 'seventeen to start with?
Yes.
I don't remember what it was now. I mean we are in yes, we have it's about 5% to 6% increase in corrugated overall.
Fantastic. Okay. And I appreciate you've not given much detail on the Brabusgaard transaction, but just when you talk about being able to get 1,000,000 cube of wood via the Brabusgaard currently post the proposed transaction, presumably that will substantially increase. And can you give us some idea of your, shall we say, target wood coverage regarding following the proposed transaction?
The Payvik transaction compared I didn't understand the question. It's really difficult.
Sorry, Susanne, what I'm saying is you alluded to the that at the moment, you get about a 1,000,000 cubic meters from BradescoG of your total 10.5. Post the proposed transaction, I'm presuming that will substantially increase.
That's obviously one of the No, no, no. You cannot I mean, 1,000,000 cubic meters is about what you can take out per year from that from Bijewijk School. So you cannot increase that over some period of time, maybe short term, but then you have to cut down.
Right. But on an average, it will
be around €1,000,000 per year.
Right. Okay. Okay. All right. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Martin Melby from ABG. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Martin, your line is open.
Martin Melby from ABG. If you would like to ask your question, your line is open. If your line is on mute, can you please unmute? And as there is no response, we'll go on to the next question from the line of Kevin Hellegard from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead Kevin.
Your line is open.
Hi. Most of my questions have been answered, but I just have 2 left. So on the production issues, you mentioned it was around €120,000,000 costs for the quarter. Can you give a rough split between the different business areas?
No.
Okay. And then on your CapEx, you said that you're keeping your CapEx budget unchanged despite the increase of the Gruen project. Which other projects are you scaling back on then? Are there particular? Or is it just CapEx in general?
No, it's a tougher prioritization basically.
Okay. Okay. Excellent. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Our next question from the line of Robin Santavirta from Carnegie. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. In terms of wood raw material costs, where are you seeing the sort of the pressure upside? Is it mainly in Sweden or is it in Norway or in the Baltics? I'm not talking about winter related problems or shortage of pulpwood, but mainly sort of related to increased demand.
I think it's Norway, yes. Sweden, yes. And Baltics, yes. We see it on all markets basically.
So the same upward pressure in all markets approximately? Yes. How much do you buy from Norway?
At this point in time, it's not that much.
So below 10%.
Yes.
Okay. Then in terms you mentioned in managed packaging, you also have this expansion related costs. Are then are they then reported as one offs offs or are they reporting as ongoing costs?
No. The only thing that we have reported as items affecting Gruen and Gerbracher that are extra and that we're not allowed to activate. All other extra costs, so to say, we include in the running business, we take it as we have those types of costs every now and then. So we need to be able to swallow that.
Okay. And just a specification on the SEK 60,000,000 added depreciation? I guess that's the Scharbach machine ramp
related to that.
No. That is the machines the old machines in previously anticipated, because we closed them down when we turn on KM7 or the board machine. And then you have to speed up the depreciation period. So you instead of writing them off on 5 to 10 years that was left, we have to do it in the 2 years that we run them now. So we continue to depreciate them during this year And that is when this year is done, there will be no book value left on those machines.
Okay. I understand. But what about increase depreciation?
Yes. It increases depreciation with the investment amount basically when we start up the machine. And it will be we write it off on 20 years and it's a SEK 1,300,000,000 investment.
Okay. I understand. And then finally, I don't know if it's mentioned somewhere, but how much of the Groove project has been invested already? How much is left of that SEK 7,000,000,000?
That's a good question.
And how much of the Sharbach I
mean, we haven't I mean, the only thing we have invested in so far is really the groundworks on the civils. The machine is coming during this year. So it's only the groundwork. And I don't really have the number with me. But there's a lot of investments coming.
I mean all of the up to the SEK4.7 billion, it's about over 3.5 that comes from this year. So it's a lot of cost coming in this year. So the big chunk is coming now in 2018.
Okay. Then finally related to this change in reporting of expansion related costs, how do you how will you do this now then in Q1 2019 when you start the machine? We'll sort of because that will be a heavy period of costs. And how will you then report those costs? Are they still nonrecurring?
Or are they then ongoing?
You mean the start up cost?
Right.
Yes, we'll come back to that. We'll have to come back on that.
Okay. Thanks.
Thank you. And our final questions from the telephone line will be from Mikael Doepel from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. A few questions on my part. Starting off on the cost side of things. You mentioned the cost in Gruburn in 2018. And I think you mentioned a figure of 210.
Did that include some of the what is included in that figure? Because I recall a figure of €1 €50,000,000 previously.
Yes. It's the same €150,000,000 €75,000,000 for extended maintenance, €75,000,000 for extra personnel and educational costs. And then you have the €60,000,000 that is the speeded up depreciation.
Okay. Understood. And this speeded up the depreciation, will that also be booked as a one off?
Yes.
Okay.
And we will book it exactly the same way we have done it in this quarter.
Okay.
Okay.
Good. And then in terms of the extra cost that you will have in the Q1 due to the warm weather, the €80,000,000 to €100,000,000 costs there. Will that also be booked as a one off? And the second question related to that, is that isolated to the Q1 only?
Yes. Well, we certainly hope that it will be isolated to the Q1. We are doing everything we can to put contingencies in place so that we will make sure we get hardwood. We will not book it as a one off. We will we think we can explain this by the weather, but you can probably have more contingencies in place to avoid this type of events every 5th 10th year when it happens.
So we will not book it as a one off.
Okay. And then overall, you think about your the cost inflation, I know you don't want to give go into any clear numbers on woods, for example. But if you think about this year and the cost inflation overall that you expect, do you see that the price increases that you are getting on your products will more than compensate for the cost inflation? Or will it be fully matching or lagging a bit?
Well, that's the $1,000,000 question, right? I think it will even out.
And then on Shamblak, are there any start up costs that we should be aware of when you start up that machine? And was it now in Q1 or Q2?
In Q1, in the end of Q1. Yes.
And that means that the depreciation will start to run only at the end of Q1 as well, I assume?
Yes. Well, I guess it will start from the day you turn it on because that's calculated on a monthly basis.
Sure, sure. And are there any costs related to that start up that you would like to share if you have any estimates on that?
Not any more than we have guided before. So no, not really.
And what have you guided before
on that one? Nothing.
Exactly. Okay. Then just a final question on the CapEx. You said that you're going to keep the €4,700,000,000 as an estimate for this year. And just to be clear on this, does this include the cost overrun?
Yes. The
see a spillover into 2019 and that's why the estimate now is being increased to SEK1.8 billion for next year or for 2019. But we will do our utmost to prioritize all other investments to make sure we don't get over that.
But does that mean that you kind of postpone the other investments, so you're going to see higher investments than again in 2020, 2021 maybe?
Well, the plan right now is to come down to a normal depreciation level in 2020. And the normal depreciation level, we've said before, is about SEK1.4 billion, SEK1.5 billion per year.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. And as there are no further questions from the telephone lines, I'll hand back the conference to our speakers.
Thank you, operator. Are there any final questions from the room? Okay, then it's time to say thank you. You like to say a few final words, Petra, maybe?
Yes. Thank you for listening. And I think it's we do have a lot of things to really dig into when it comes to the production disturbances and also to really deliver on the investment. But I think that we have the activities in place to do so. But you can never promise, of course.
But it seems like we have quite many activities in place, I would say.