Nimbus Group AB (Publ) (STO:BOAT)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Mar 17, 2021

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

Okay. Again, welcome then. My name is Jan-Erik Lindström, and I'm the CEO of the company, and I have been on Nimbus since 2010. With me today I have

Rasmus Alvemyr
CFO, Nimbus

Rasmus Alvemyr. I'm a CFO at Nimbus since 2018.

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

If we can switch actually to page three. Some highlights for the fourth quarter, 2020. We had sales that was in line with our expectations, roughly SEK 200 million, which means that we had a growth of actually roughly 12%. The EBITDA amounted to SEK -3.6 million. It's a good SEK 1.5 million better than last year. We should keep in mind that we had some one-off items, as we say here, SEK 9.2 million. Rasmus will describe them a little bit more later on. That is a good SEK 11 million better than the last quarter, and I think that's important to take with you. The order book continued to grow. It's +41% compared to Q3.

Something then that we noticed then is that we have some capacity restraints in the supply chain, and we also noticed that we have a slight price increase of raw materials. This is then, of course, from the fact that the supply chain is under pressure. If we then switch page to number four. Why invest in Nimbus? This is then, of course, a reminder for you that was involved in our IPO process in some matter. Some of you is for sure new, and I think that I will then just mention then. One important thing is that, of course, then that we have a strong underlying market, and we also have, as we say, here, several fundamental drivers. I will in fact come back to them. I will take it from there.

Second, we have our true house of brands with this strong and distinctive brand portfolio. This is for the dealer, and I will get back to that also. We think that we have an attractive position in the value chain, and we have great opportunities to further improve the dealership offering, but also to develop the aftermarket service. We like to have an asset-light and flexible production. Flexible production for us is actually partly that it's outsourced, and the growth that we see in front of us will be, a great part of this will be through this outsourced production, but also the modular boat building process that we have developed during the years.

We are an experienced management team, finally then, we also see that we have excellent growth opportunities from more, you can say, a geographical point of view. We have our expansion in North America. We have been there now for four years, that looks great. We also have other things, I will come back to that. It's also our market, the boat industry, it's very fragmented. It's a lot of small companies, family-owned companies, we see great potential then to actually then consolidate both in the distribution, also then, of course, the brands. If we switch page to number five. Nimbus was found in 1968, I think it's important to mention that we have a long history of international trade. We were global very early in this process.

Our seven brands then are well-known Scandinavian brands, and we think that the combination of these two is interesting because a lot of our brands is well-known in all the countries. It's good boats, good products, they have never really tested to be present then in Europe, for example, but also other places where we are present through Nimbus. 2012, our new owner then, R12, and the current main owner, actually, did some reconstruction. I was already there at that point, it was both interesting and developing work we did, and it's a lot of, you can say, distribution involving in that progress. I will not come back to that's a factor. The house of brands, of course, 2018, we acquired Alukin, and 2019, and actually end of 2018, we bought then Bella-Veneet. Bella-Veneet is Finnish for Bella.

Effective from 2019. Finally then, 2021, listed on the Nasdaq First North, just recently, as you know, of course. If we switch page. Today, a true house of brands. For the dealer's sake, and this is then important, we want to be a big part of the dealer's business. It's, of course, about the financial. We want the demonstration boats, of course, to be from our house of brands. It's also for us to cover the needs for that typical boat district where the dealer is present is what we want to actually then achieve. You can see examples of it, and today we have a strong portfolio, of course, that could develop, but already today it's a strong portfolio we have. Nimbus is the biggest one.

As I said before, we see a lot of potential in Aquador and Flipper to begin with. They are well-known brands, and we know them for sure because we have been global for so long that these boats will work very well in Europe and also in other markets. I was talking about the fundamental drivers in the beginning, and if I start from the bottom here, we see the overall wealth is increasing. In fact, from the year 2000 up to nowadays, it's a multiple of 2.5. We have 2.5 more money, so to say, to spend. That is important for the whole recreational market, but we are a part of that market. We also see this increased popularity of staycation.

Staycation today it's connected with the pandemic, but if we move the pandemic aside for a while, we can actually then say that this trend has been ongoing for quite a while now. Actually year 2015, well before the pandemic, we saw that you can compare it with a little bit like a hockey stick that the trend actually then took off. Simply, we spend more money on this domestic tourism than we did before. A bigger part of the budget for the recreational things is spent on staycation, which then is of course, good for us and it's good for the recreational market. If we then specifically look into the boat industry itself, it's a fact then that we have an aging boat fleet. Usually, I take Sweden as an example. 45% of the Swedish fleet is older than 20 years.

Of course, a boat that is 20 years old is not that fresh and it's from a technical point of view, then of course, way behind what we can see today. Finally, we have the technical development. The last 10 years, it happened a lot from that respect, and we are aiming then from the boat industry because it's the boat industry who's actually is doing the technical development today. It wasn't like that before. We inherited from the car industry, for example. Today we spend a lot of money on it, and a lot of the in-water handling, which is so important for new boaters to actually then join us in the industry, but also for the older ones that may then be able to actually keep the boats for a longer period.

The market growth, actually it's from 2014, this figure has an average growth than the underlying growth is 7%. The similar one for us here in Nimbus Group then is actually above 30%. The biggest part of that is the organic growth then, of course. If we switch page to number seven, I've talked a little bit about the asset-light production platform. We produce today in seven locations, four by our own and three outsourced. Actually, the biggest one is actually outsourced, and provides us with more than 200,000 hours per year. At this point then, end of the year, we have roughly 300 employees, and actually then 80 in outsourced and in the Polish factory. Today, since we are expanding, we have more people involved in the production today. Increased variable share of cost base.

This is also then one thing, we can call it more or less a culture that we want to have as big part of the cost variable as possible. We are actually then talking about the time. The time is important. On six-month time, we have roughly then 90% of our costs is variable. We think that this six months is a sufficient period of time to do the things you need to do if you need to, for example, scale down. This is about scaling up and scaling down, of course. We work a lot in the production, actually it must start already on the drawing boards in the product development. What we're working with, of course, is to not only the product, also the process. We want to have this modular boat building process as we're talking about then.

It's not only the product, it's also the process, of course. It should not matter for the operators if they build boat A or boat B, so to say. If we switch the page, dealership. As you can see, we are well covered in the Nordic countries, but it's a fact actually then that we can still densify quite a lot in the Nordic countries. This business is a very local business. As an average, when we look into it, we find the customers approximately 30 km from the actual dealer. Inside that area, we find the dealers. We are not that covered in the Nordic, but of course, if you look at the European map, you understand that we still have a lot to do with this densifying dealership.

We also see this, as we actually say here, the huge opportunity to ride the North American wave. As I said, it's roughly four years since we started, and already today, if you look in the order book, North America, or actually then U.S., is our biggest market outside the Nordic countries. Already in four years, it's a great expansion. I also mentioned the aftermarket. I didn't tell you the story behind it, and we don't have the time for that now, but in the boat industry, we are not that good at taking care of our customer from the aftermarket position as boat builders, I should say, as product owner. There are other stakeholders that take care of them. Of course, we have to change that.

As a product owner, we have to owe our own aftermarket, we are spending quite a lot of time and putting a lot of efforts down to change that picture. That also starts with the product development. You have to decide from the beginning what to do with this. If we flip the page to page nine, the order book. The order book is strong, no doubt, if you compare both to the quarter 3 2020 and the similar quarter 2019. It's a huge difference. Of course, I talked about the staycation, I talked about the pandemic. It all matters in some respect, of course. We have 41% up from the third quarter. What we see today is the comeback in the main markets in Europe, and this is important for us.

We actually sold less boats last year in Europe than we did the year before, and this was related then to the pandemic. Actually, we had a shutdown in Europe. Now we can see that the orders is coming back, and we are, of course, happy with that. The US market remaining strong, no doubt. As I say today in our report that it's our capacity that is the limit, so to say, how much we can today then grow in North America. In general then, the order backlog continues to be strong because the Nordic countries is also continuing to showing great progress. We switch to Rasmus, and we flip the page to page number 10.

Rasmus Alvemyr
CFO, Nimbus

Thank you, Jan-Erik. The net sales increased in the fourth quarter to SEK 199 million, which was an increase by 12.5% compared to last year. We have seen a strong development in Europe. It has increased by about 50% compared to last year, now corresponded to 40% of the sales. For the first to third quarter, Europe only corresponded to about 25% of our sales, it's a huge improvement. We see that Sweden and Nordic countries performs well, with lots of activities at the dealers, this despite the season, the dark season in Nordic countries. For full year, we end up in a net sales of SEK 1,029 million, which is an increase by 10.6% compared to last year. Our organic growth is 11.0%, a bit higher, the difference comes from exchange effects.

Mixing the revenue streams between external and internal dealers, we see that we are in a fairly stable level compared to last year, 39% for 2020 compared to 38% for last year in home sales. This is important because of the gross margin on group level, which is affected by the share of internal and external sales. If we flip to page 11, then we see the EBITA margin, and in the fourth quarter, it amounts to minus SEK 3.1 million. When excluding non-recurring one-off costs, we end up in a plus of SEK 6.1 million. The one-off costs that we have identified refers to IPO costs of SEK 2.1 million. We have increased our reserves and harmonized our accounting principles for warranty claims, and this corresponds to SEK 3.2 million. We have also made a writedown of a development project from the position of Bella from 2018.

That was before we owned Bella, and that amount is SEK 3.9 million. In the fourth quarter, we summarized to SEK 9.2 million in one-off costs. That is non-recurring. For the full year, EBITA amounts to SEK 58 million, which is EBITA margin of 5.7%. When excluding one-off costs for the full year, we end up in SEK 72 million, which gives an EBITA margin of 7.0%. I would also like to mention that we have had costs from the pandemic that we have not quantified. We have estimated these to be in the area of about SEK 2 million-SEK 4 million, but this is something that we don't really count in it. If we flip to page 12, then we see the working capital. First, I would like to mention that we have a flat or a stable production during a 12-month period.

There is a seasonality within the industry, winter/summer seasonality. What we do is to try to deliver boats to markets that are currently open, meaning that we, during autumn, for instance, can deliver more boats to the U.S. or to Southern Europe or so. In the fourth quarter, we have improved the net working capital. From the third quarter, we had SEK 169 million in net working capital to SEK 166 million. This is a huge improvement for us. The fourth quarter traditionally means that we will increase working capital. This has actually been reduced then. This has been done by working with prepayments and, as I mentioned before, also deliver boats to markets that are currently open. This has reduced our stock levels compared to last year by about 25%, minus SEK 75 million.

When looking at net working capital in relation to last 12 months sales, we also see a significant improvement with now ending up in 16% compared to 32% last year. Flip the page to page 13. This is to remind you about our financial targets that we have communicated earlier. First, we say that we should have an organic growth about 10% per year over a business cycle, that includes acquisitions of dealers but not brands. We should have an EBITDA margin of 10% in the medium term. We should have no senior debts, excluding real estate debts. We have a dividend policy saying that we target to pay out 30% of net earnings. We need to take into account, of course, financial position of the company, cash flow, and growth opportunities.

We have also communicated earlier that we see that for 2021, we expect to end up in a net sales between SEK 1,150 and SEK 1,221, which we say because of this strong order backlog that Jan-Erik described to you earlier, and also that there is a great momentum at the market. We flip to page 14. I hand over to Jan-Erik again.

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

Thank you, Rasmus. These five pillars you can call them, that we're now focusing on. To begin with and of course, to develop our current offering and organization, we still have a lot of improvements and actually, we're working with continuous improvement, that is a part of our culture. Expand and densify the dealership network in Europe. Of course, connected with a couple of brands that we want to bring with us on this journey out to Europe to begin with. Improve the aftermarket offering and also the presence, densify part of it, so to say. We want to increase our presence in North America. As I said today, we are careful in that because we don't have the capacity needed, but as soon as we have ramped up, which we're working with today, we will continue that journey.

Finally, as I said, it's a fragmented business, we see a lot of possibilities to actually acquisition on the dealer side, but also, of course, on the brand side. This is long processes. This is nothing that we just do, so to say. That is what we're working with at present. If we flip the page, you will have a summary of the, at this point, the 15 biggest shareholders, and this list is provided to us by Euroclear. Finally, if we flip the page, we arrive to the Q&A.

Operator

Thank you.

Rasmus Alvemyr
CFO, Nimbus

Not to mention, the next report then for Q1 will be in 11th of May.

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

Yes. Please, are there any questions?

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please dial zero one on your telephone keypads now to enter the queue. Once your name's announced, you can ask your question. If you find it's answered before it's your turn to speak, you can dial zero two to cancel. So far, we've got one question in the queue. That's from the line of Erik Paulsson of Nordea. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Erik Paulsson
Analyst, Nordea

Yes. Hi there. I have two questions here. In terms of the Q1 coming up here for 2021, as well as the full year of 2021, what can we expect in terms of sales growth and margins from your side?

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

Rasmus showed that the picture. Our picture is that, and I think I should begin maybe from the beginning there. Our factories were more or less stopped in March due to the pandemic. We didn't see really what will this go. Finally, when we saw that, okay, we are fine and we can continue, we then went on, but we of course, lost quite a lot of the production there. These boats that we lost would sold. That is one part of it, that we will actually then have more boats available. We can also see that the order backlog more or less than actually covers the same numbers in number of boats that we actually then produced, and I say produced during last year. We are quite comfortable that we will reach this level as Rasmus indicated.

The margin, as we say, on midterm basis, we want to reach 10%. That is, of course, a journey, but so far there's no need for us, so to say, to give a warning. We are in progress. We will continue that.

We follow our plan, so to say.

Erik Paulsson
Analyst, Nordea

Okay. On North America, your North American sales, would you say that this is driven by the North American dealerships, or is it coming from the actual end customers in North America?

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

Good question. It doesn't work exactly the same in North America as in Europe. They like to have stock in North America. We cannot provide our dealers for the moment with stock. It's end customer we're talking about.

Erik Paulsson
Analyst, Nordea

Okay, great. In terms of your supply shortages that you discussed here, what are the most crucial parts in this that might be delayed? What has the actual impact been in Q4? A follow-up on that, what are the expectations now going forward for Q1 as well as if you could remind us what's the most important raw material exposure that you have?

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

For quarter four, nothing really. This is, we can say, quite new, but of course, we always keep track on changes like this. We have had delays, but so far it hasn't affected neither the production, neither the sales, so to say. I think we are a big player today, and we can gain from that. I don't see that up until the summer, the vacations, we will most probably not see any disturbances at all really then. We can see that, for example, the polyester, which is an important part of our product, the cost is increasing, but it's still at a low level. For the quarter three and four, it's harder to say, of course. It's a longer period from here. We keep track on it, and we are good at this. I'm feeling confident that this should not be any big impact.

Of course, we can have delays later on, but we don't see them today.

Erik Paulsson
Analyst, Nordea

Thank you. Regarding the raw material exposure there in terms of aluminum, polyester, et cetera, how large part of your raw material cost is this roughly?

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

I'm calculating. I should actually then come back to that question because we should not speculate, but I would say roughly 20%, maybe slightly above that.

Erik Paulsson
Analyst, Nordea

In terms of polyester?

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

Yeah, the cost of the polyester.

Erik Paulsson
Analyst, Nordea

Okay. A final one, what is included in the other external costs in the P&L or what's called in Swedish, [Non-English content]?

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

In the quarter or full year?

Erik Paulsson
Analyst, Nordea

Actually, both since it is I'm just posing questions here. It's the quarter and for the full year. Sorry? No, rather the.

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

Okay. There's a mixture of rental fees. It covers most of the OPEX costs that is not specified. As you can see, you have personnel costs specified. All other OPEX costs are recorded under this line.

Erik Paulsson
Analyst, Nordea

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

Thank you.

Erik Paulsson
Analyst, Nordea

Thank you.

Speaker 5

I have a question here from Christian Krüeger of LMK, and he asked about the factory in Poland. You mentioned in your report that the factory has been negatively affected by the COVID-19 among the personnel, and he wonders what the status is right now and how fast you think that the factory will be back in full production.

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

We have had sick leaves there for roughly than 20%, which is a very high number then, of course. That is decreasing. Still it's high. If you look at the history, then it's still high, and we're moving around 12%. This is the last figure. This is not from today. We are decreasing, and my guess is that this will change quite quick now. Maybe in one month's time, we will definitely have reached decent levels, maybe not at normal levels, still decent levels.

Speaker 5

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Currently, we have no further questions on the phones at this time.

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

Okay.

Rasmus Alvemyr
CFO, Nimbus

We thank you.

Jan-Erik Lindström
CEO, Nimbus

We say thank you, yes. Thank you for listening in and your time, and see you next report session then.